I must say I do like a lot of the matches today and I will try to do a live chat at 14:30 to at least cover the German Bundesliga and English Premiership.
12:30 - Crystal Palace v Southampton - 2.62 Southampton
- The market cannot pick a favourite. Why? 2 poor starts to the season.
- 4 defeats for Palace and no win. 0-2 and 0-3 at home. Frank de Boer is gone. Roy Hodgson is appointed new manager.
- Jekyll and Hyde Southampton failed to score in 3 matches (2 were 0-0) and a 0-2 home defeat to Watford.
- Dangerous territory a match with a new manager as he obviously will do things different to the previous encumbent.
- Palace have a 4 match fail to score sequence, a 4 match losing sequence. It will end soon.
- No angles for me I'm afraid with this new manager. He may radically change the fortunes of Palace.
15:00 - Huddersfield Town v Leicester City - 2.4 Leicester
- No head to heads.
- I like Leicester under the Great Bard, Mr. Shakespeare but 3 losses and a win is little consolation. Context please! Losses v Arsenal, Manchester United and Chelsea.
- When Huddersfield have kept clean sheets they have prospered. They failed to keep a clean sheet v West Ham and lost 2-0.
- I cannot see Huddersfield keep out a strong attacking force in leicester and on that basis I feel Huddersfield will not win today, even if leading.
- 1-0 and 0-0 at home for Huddersfield so far. I do feel Leicester are the greater goal threat so lay any late 0-0 and look for Leicester not to lose.
15:00 - Liverpool v Burnley - 1.3 Liverpool
- The market expects a repeat of the 2-0 or 2-1 of the last 2 head to heads at Liverpool.
- 1-0 and 4-0 at home for Liverpool to date. Another 2-0 on the cards? The market thinks so.
- The Man City tonking may be down to awareness of an upcoming Champions League match.
- Burnley for me are dining on the mistakes of others. 2-3 v 9 man Chelsea. Even 10 man Chelsea I think would have eventually equalised.
- 1-1 v Tottenham saw the Spuds slip up crucially in over time.
- Liverpool are prone to mistakes. Note the 3-3 v Watford but at home look a little more robust. Liverpool are coming off a mid week Champions League match.
- Still, for me, Burnley will only be reliant on slip ups in order to profit and on that basis, I really cannot see Burnley getting a sniff today. Of course if Burnley score first, I am all over them!
15:00 - Newcastle United v Stoke City - 2.4 Newcastle
- 1-0-1-2 conceded by Stoke this season. They were lucky Man Utd were Champions League -distracted as ordinarily that would have been a Man Utd win rather than a 2-2.
- 2 losses and 2 consecutive wins Newcastle. Wins v faltering West Ham and Swansea.
- Stoke have only conceded 1-1 away from home and I do not think Newcastle are quite the same level as, say, Everton.
- This could be 0-0 for a while. If you want to hope for a long 0-0, back 0-0 pre match and lay the 0-0 at halftime. All Stoke conceded goals to date have been 45th+ minute.
15:00 - Watford v Man City - 1.36 City
- City were emphatic mid week in the Champions League, and at higher odds away from home. I fear for Watford.
- City are a really good trading side. Witness the 0-2 win v Brighton. Goals 70th+ minute. The 1-1 v Everton saw an eventual City equaliser. 1-2 v Bournemouth saw a 90th minute City winner.
- 3 consecutive Watford clean sheets in an unbeaten start to the season.
- Watford could keep City honest but really we have seen a City who can carve out a goal even if it looks all-for-nought.
- Faith in City today if they flounder til the late stages of this match.
15:00 - West Bromwich v West Ham - 2.4 West Brom
- 3-2-2 scored by West Ham last 3 head to heads and they won only 1 match.
- Contrary season. West Brom, sole loss last match. West Ham sole win last match.
- West Brom have been their usual selves.2 1-0 wins and a 1-1 draw then Brighton managed 3 goals.
- West Ham lost 3 consecutive away matches conceding 4-3-3 goals. They won their sole home match.
- I would back 2-2 here today given the head to heads and the fact that West Ham concede 2 consistently away and West Brom conceded 3 (rather rarely) last match.
- The 2-2 is only as a trading vehicle. You can trade out at 2-0 /0-2 or 2-1/1-2 if we get these scorelines.
17:30 - Tottenham Hotspur v Swansea City - 1.26 Tottenham
- 3-2-2-5-3 scored by Spurs in recent head to heads.
- Tottenham tend to win at home regardless of the amount they concede. Note that they apparently have a 'curse of Wembley'.
- The boys from Tottingham have lost 1-2 and drawn 1-1 at home so far. The 1-1 was very sloppy v Burnley.
- Swansea are doing their losing at home and keeping clean sheets away.
- The market expects Spurs to be as solid as they tend to be in head to heads. Will the Swans clean sheetery away continue today?
FRENCH LIGUE 1
16:00 - Monaco v Strasbourg - 1.22 Monaco
- Newly promoted Strasbourg really should struggle today.
- Monaco have won 10/10 home matches while bottom-six promoted teams have lost 61% of away matches against top-six teams since 2012-13.
- Monaco have won by two or more goals in 8/11 home matches.
- 4 wins for Monaco ended with a 4-0 loss away at Cote D'azur rivals Nice. That may have been down to European competition distraction or the fact that the home side tends to win encounters between Nice and Monaco.
- All-in-all it was a poor performance right out of the blue.
- Strasbourg have a solitary win, which came at home.
- They lost 4-0 away at Lyon and that is the template for today.
- I would look at laying the 0-0 in the halftime score market 2-4-0-4-2 goals in total in Monaco matches before halftime.
- Expect a comfortable afternoon for Monaco. React if anything other than that.
19:00 - Dijon v Saint-Étienne - 2.52 St Etienne
- 1-1 and 0-1 St Etienne in the last 2 head to heads.
- All over 2.5 goals for Dijon this season.Dijon have conceded 3-4-2-1-2 goals.
- Their last 4 matches saw 4-1-1-2 goals before halftime.
- St Etienne kept 3 clean sheets in their opening 3 matches. They lost to PSG and drew 1-1 with Angers.
- St Etienne, against their usual pattern, have seen 1-0-2-1-2 goals before halftime.
- On this basis, lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market?
- The market cannot split these 2 sides. On first inspection, St Etienne look the team in better shape.
19:00 - Guingamp v Lille - 2.18 Guingamp
- 0-0, 1-0 Guingamp and 3-0 Lille in the last 3 head to heads.
- No draw for Guingamp this season. They have lost to teams they are expected to lose to - PSG, Nice and Lyon. They beat Metz and Strasbourg.
- Only 1 win for Lille.
- Not a match which enthuses just yet. If you think Guingamp will continue to avoid the draws, then lay any late draw.
19:00 - Nantes v Caen - 1.99 Nantes
- Nantes won the 2 2017 head to heads without conceding.
- There have been -2.5 goals in 9/10 Nantes home matches against top-six teams and in 10/12 SM Caen away matches.
- Nantes have drawn the first half in 7/10 home matches against top-six teams.
- Bar a 3-0 loss to Lille, Nantes seem to have clicked defensively. 1-0-0-0 conceded since then in 4 unbeaten matches, seeing 2 0-1 away wins.
- Caen lost 2 matches 1-0 then won their next 3 conceding 0-0-1.
- There is a strong defensive bent here from both sides. Nantes have had 5 consecutive 0-0's at halftime. If you think that pattern will continue, back 0-0 pre match, and lay off at halftime.
19:00 - Troyes v Montpellier - 2.82 Troyes
- Immediately, not a match to dwell on. The market tells us so.
- Montpellier have won 5/8 away matches against promoted teams and they have scored first in 8/10 such matches.
- Bottom-six promoted teams have had -2.5 goals in 58% of home matches against bottom-six teams since 2012-13.
- 1-2-0-1-0 scored by Troyes so far this season, 1-0-1-1-0 scored by Montpellier.
- 1-0-0 scored at home by Troyes.
- A suggestion that Troyes are unable to get that 2nd goal at home, heck even score at home. Dare we lay Troyes if Troyes score first in anticipation of struggles scoring a 2nd goal. Note Montpellier have scored in their 2 aways.
14:30 - Bayern Munich v Mainz - 1.15 Bayern
- 1-2 Mainz, 1-3 Bayern and 2-2 Bayern last 3 head to heads. Mainz seem to be capable here (as Hoffenheim were in head to heads and then in the league last match).
- Bayern's 2-0 loss to the Hoff may also have been down to changes made with the Champions League match in mind. It was certainly a weaker Bayern side missing some star players.
- 2 wins and a loss to date for Bayern.
- 3 losses (1-0) and a win to date for Mainz.
- Mainz have scored first in both recent visits to Munich so watch out for that and have confidence in a Bayern equaliser (Robben has equalised last twice!).
- The market expects 3/4 goals from Bayern and a goal before halftime. It is not convinced by the head to heads. Note the context too. Bayern tend not to lose 2 consecutive matches.
14:30 - Eintracht Frankfurt v Augsburg - 1.91 Frankfurt
- 1-1 and 3-1 Frankfurt in the last 2 head to heads.
- Win, draw, loss for both sides this season. Augsburg have yet to see a 0-0 at halftime. Frankfurt have scored only 1 goal and that was the winner for them in their last match.
- No strong angles for me. Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market if you think Augsburg matches will continue to see a goal before halftime.
14:30 - Stuttgart v Wolfsburg - 2.5 Stuttgart
- These teams last met in May 2016 so that tells us Stuttgart are newly promoted.
- Wolfsburg have won 7/11 away matches against promoted teams and they have won the first half in 7/10 such matches.
- Bottom-six promoted teams have had +2.5 goals in 55% of home matches against middle-third teams since 2012-13.
- 2 defeats and a 1-0 win v Mainz for Stuttgart.
- A loss to Dortmund, 0-1 win away at Frankfurt and 1-1 v Hannover for Wolfsburg.
- Not a match with any strong angles after only 3 games played.
- Stuttgart may be tough to score against. They only conceded a first half goal which turned out to be a penalty. Do not be surprised with a 0-0 at halftime but lay the 0-0 or the draw 2nd half if 0-0 at halftime.
14:30 - Werder Bremen v Schalke - 2.68 Schalke
- Another betting market telling us that this match is too tight to call.
- At least one team has scored 3 goals in 7 of the last 9 head to heads.
- The 3 goals have been shared by both teams alternately in the last 4 head to heads.
- W. Bremen have conceded first in 10/13 home matches against top-six teams while Schalke 04 have scored first in 5/8 away matches against bottom-six teams.
- Schalke 04 have drawn the first half in 11/15 away matches.
- Tough opening campaign for Werder with losses to Bayern and Hoffenheim and a draw v Hertha.
- Schalke have won 3 home matches and lost away.
- Look to lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market usually with Werder Bremen. I tend to wait at least 20 minutes if 0-0.
- Both teams tend to score in a Werder match as occured last week.
- If you feel speculative, back 3-1 and 1-3 correct scores.
ITALIAN SERIA A
14:00 - Crotone v Inter - 1.36 Inter
- 3-0 Inter and 2-1 Crotone in the last 2 head to heads.
- There is a feeling this season that this Inter side has 'clicked' into gear.
- Crotone are yet to score.
- Inter Milan have 3 wins and 2 clean sheets. Roma scored first and Inter won that match so they are capable if coming from behind.
- Inter may match their Milanese neighbours AC with a 0-3 win today. Inter have scored before halftime in their 3 matches to date. A small sample I know but consideration to laying the 0-0 in the halftime score market particularly if 0-0 after 20 mins or so.
17:00 - Fiorentina v Bologna - 1.57 Fiorentina
- 2 consecutive 1-0 Fiorentina wins in head to heads. The market expects Fiorentina to be a little more emphatic.
- Fiorentina are yet to click. Losses v Inter Milan and Sampdoria and emphatic away win v Verona.
- Bologna drew 1-1 with Torino, beat Benevento 0-1 and lost to Napoli.
- Both sides will be vulnerable v the established top 5 teams.
- There is nothing yet to convince that Fiorentina are strong 1.57 favourites. No 0-0 at halftime yet for Fiorentina.
19:45 - Roma v Verona - 1.22 Roma
- 3 consecutive 1-1 draws albeit no recent head to heads from last season.
- Only 1 goal scored by Verona in 3 matches suggests struggles this season back in Seria A.
- Napoli and Fiorentina managed at least 2 goals before halftime when they played Verona.
- 0-1 win and 1-3 loss to Inter Milan for Roma suggests they will struggle v the top sides this season but should beat the likes of Verona.
- Roma won all home matches outside of the top 6 last season. They have lost a couple of players. Only time will tell how significant that could be.
17:30 - Excelsior v Heerenveen - 2.16 Heerenveen
- Both teams have scored in the last 4 head to heads.
- The home team has been unbeaten in the last 4 head to heads.
- Only 1 win for Excelsior came first match of the season.They have failed to score in their 2 home matches.
- Heerenveen are unbeaten this season.3-1-2-2 scored.
- On current season form you'd have to side with the away side today on scoring ability v a home side unable (yet) to score at home.
- Or do you side with head to heads and both teams scoring? Heerenveen though today may just outscore Excelsior. I would be an Excelisor layer if they scored first.
18:45 - Roda JC v Willem II - 2.32 Roda
- 0-0 and 1-0 Roda last 2 head to heads.
- All defeats both sides.
- No 0-0 at halftime both sides.
- 2 poor form sides who I will leave alone.
18:45 - NAC Breda v Groningen - 2.48 Groningen
- Both teams have scored in all matches these 2 have played this season.
- 3 losses and a 2-2 draw for Breda.2 score draws, a win and a loss for Groningen.
- Look for the possibility of both teams scoring today. I would back 2-1 and 1-2 as trading angles. If 1-1, I would trade out of the 2-1 and 1-2 correct scores as the odds should have reduced for both scorelines.
SPANISH PRIMERA LIGA
15:15 - Getafe v Barcelona - 1.27 Barcelona
- This is a great opportunity for Barcelona to rub it in. They were a rare Spanish Champions League side who won their league match prior to mid week competition. Atl Madrid and Real Madrid both drew. If they win today, already a small gap may be forming at the top of the table.
- Barcelona have loved playing Getafe in the past. Getafe return to the Spanish Primera Liga so there is that element of the unknown. We are likely to see them set up to be tough to beat. Barcelona though have historically won to nil so it would be a case of 'a matter of time' were this 0-0 for an extended period.
- Getafe drew 0-0 with Bilbao, and lost only 0-1 to Sevilla. Barca are yet to concede in 3 wins. 0-2 bare minimum for me today for Barcelona in a match in which Getafe should have trouble even scoring.
17:30 - Betis v Deportivo - 1.89 Betis
- 0-0, 1-0 Betis and 1-1 last 3 head to heads.
- Real Betis have drawn the first half in 7/9 home matches against bottom-six teams and there have been -2.5 goals in 7/9 Real Betis such matches.
- Deportivo have conceded first in 7/11 away matches against bottom-half teams.
- Both sides have had tough starts. Betis lost to Barcelona and Villareal away and beat Celta 2-1 at home.
- Depor lost to Real Madrid and new title challengers Real Sociedad and drew 2-2 with Levante.
- The fact Depor have scored 2 goals in each of their last 2 matches is interesting. If they score 2 today, they could get a point at least.
- Not enough yet for any strong angles.
19:45 - Atletico Madrid v Malaga - 1.23 Atl Madrid
- We are in 'must win' territory already for Atl Madrid who drew their last match.
- If they want a tilt at the title that is!
- 3 consecutive wins now for Madrid so they should feel confident from head to heads.
- Atl. Madrid have had W/W double results in 9/11 home matches against bottom-six teams while Malaga have had L/L double results in 6/9 away matches against top-six teams.
- Atl. Madrid have won 10/10 home matches against bottom-six teams.
- Unbeaten this season but a bit of a disaster with 2 draws and a win.
- This is Madrid's first home match so, like West Ham, they could record a first home win.
- Malaga have lost 3 matches, 2 were 1-0.
- Expect a home win today. There is a chance of a goal before halftime but only 3 matches in which to make that prediction is a small sample.
SCOTTISH PREMIER LEAGUE
15:00 - Celtic v Ross Co - 1.15 Celtic
- 2 emphatic Celtic wins are sandwiched between 2 score draws so there is always a hope Ross County can give them a game.
- 4 wins and a 1-1 draw for Celtic this season. They have yet to concede more than 1 goal in a match.
- Ross County's losses to Rangers and Aberdeen occured at home and were 1-2 and 1-3 which is a template for today.
- If Ross County score first, they are still likely to lose.
- Celtic are yet to have a 0-0 at halftime so lay the 0-0 halftime score as late as you can first half.
- Expect a comfortable afternoon for Celtic. React if Ross score first by still backing Celtic or 3-1 and any other home score.
15:00 - Aberdeen v Kilmarnock - 1.36 Aberdeen
- Aberdeen are still the 2nd best team in Scotland until Rangers strengthen again.
- 13 consecutive Aberdeen head to heads wins.
- Aberdeen failed to score v Hearts, their only dropped points of the season. They tend to score 2 goals at least when winning.
- 1-0-0-2-0 scored by Killie this season. Even in scoring 2 goals, they still could not win.
- I would expect at least a 2-0 Aberdeen or a 2-1 if Killie score a goal.
15:00 - Hibernian v Motherwell - 1.71 Hibernian
- Top-half promoted teams have scored first in 52% of home matches against top half non-Big One teams since 2012-13 while Motherwell have lost by two or more goals in 5/8 trips to promoted teams.
- Motherwell have had L/L double results in 5/8 away matches against promoted teams.
- Both teams have scored in Hibs 5 matches, with a single defeat.
- 2 consecutive 1-1 draws came away.
- Hibs have conceded 1st in all matches this season and considering they have lost just one, this is a ready angle for us. Expect Hibs to fight back if conceding the first goal.
- No draw for Motherwell with 2 losses and 3 consecutive home wins now.