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https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/1188290983458534914 is the link for today's live chat webinar. 14:30 start for the German Bundesliga. No Premier League football today. The English Championship matches do not appeal. I will work on the elite leagues first and if I have time, will start working on the Championship. There are 11 matches today on the coupon with a favourite at odds of 2.4 or higher. This suggests a set of tough-to-call matches. I will prioritise the matches with more obvious favourites first today.

ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

15:00 - Fulham v Aston Villa - 2.26 Fulham

  • Fulham, Aston Villa, Fulham, Aston Villa in the last 4 head to heads.

Fulham (5th)

  • Great season to date.
  • 7 wins and 2 draws in their last 9 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • 6 consecutive home wins.
  • Scored in their last 9 matches.
  • Scored 2+ goals in each of their last 4 home matches.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • 5 1-0 wins and 5 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Lost away v top 2.
  • No win at home v top 9 sees 4 score draws and a loss.
  • 17 of 25 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Aston Villa (2nd)

  • 7 consecutive wins.
  • Scored in their last 9 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 away.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away.
  • All defeats away v top 4 without scoring.

Conclusions

  • Strictly on form, Aston Villa lose to top 4 and have not beaten top 6. Fulham are unbeaten in 9 and yes, Aston Villa have 7 consecutive wins but as I say, contextually, it is the struggles with top 4 which has me siding with Fulham not to lose today.
  • Note the strong 2nd half scoring for Fulham if 0-0 or 0-1 halftime.

SPANISH LA LIGA

12:00 - Las Palmas v Sevilla - 2.02 Sevilla

  • 4 consecutive Sevilla wins in head to heads, 2 consecutive 1-0 wins.
  • Sevilla play Man Utd in the Champions League on 21st February 2018.

Las Palmas (18th)

  • Only 5 wins.
  • 2 consecutive home wins v Valencia and Malaga.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Only 2 matches played at home v top 6 saw a loss and a win v Valencia 2-1.
  • 67% of goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Sevilla (6th)

  • Only 2 wins in 9 matches.
  • 4 losses in 5 away matches.
  • Loss, Loss, Win, Win, Win in league matches prior to Champions League matches.
  • No draw in 12 away matches.
  • Not played a bottom 4 side away from home.A draw and 3 wins at home v bottom 4.
  • Opponents have scored first in 9/12 matches away.

Conclusions

  • With only 5 wins all season, it is not a habit for Las Palmas. They have 2 consecutive wins and one v Valencia was particularly impressive.
  • Sevilla are in a spiral away from home with 4 losses in 5 away. An upcoming Champions League matches may see Sevilla vulnerable today.
  • I would lay Sevilla if they scored first and the scoreline remains 0-1 coming into the second half.

15:15 - Eibar v Barcelona - 1.51 Barcelona

  • 4-4-4-6 goals scored by Barcelona in the last 4 head to heads.
  • Barcelona meet Chelsea on the 20th February in the Champions League.
  • Win, Draw, Win, Win, Draw, in matches prior to Champions League matches.

Eibar (7th)

  • Only 1 loss in 12 matches came v Atletico Madrid.
  • 5 wins, a draw and a loss in their last 7 home matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 8 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 6 home matches.
  • Lost 6-1 to Barcelona earlier this season. Did beat Valencia 2-1 (3rd).
  • Conceded 10 of their 13 goals at home in the first half.

Barcelona (1st)

  • Unbeaten. 2 consecutive draws and their first match without scoring in their last match, a 0-0.
  • 3 0-0's in 4 matches at halftime.
  • Scored in their last 12 away.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Conceded 2 goals away in only one match.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals away.
  • 25 of 29 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Surely not a 2nd consecutive match where Barcelona will not score?
  • Eibar are in excellent form. Barcelona have not lost prior to the Champions League thiss eason.
  • Eibar have conceded 10/13 goals in the first half at home - lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market? 3/4 Barca matches though have seen 0-0 at halftime.

17:30 - Alaves v Deportivo - 1.92 Alaves

  • 2 consecutive 1-0 Deportivo wins in head to heads.

Alaves (16th)

  • Only 1 draw all season was a 2-2.
  • 2-1-2-2 scored last 4 matches sees 2 consecutive wins.
  • Win, Loss, Win, Win, Win, Draw, Win at home. Solid stuff for a team so low position-wise.
  • Scored in their last 8 at home.
  • No 0-0.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • All wins v 15th and lower at home.
  • Either 1-0 or 2-0.
  • 69% of goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Deportivo (19th)

  • 6 losses and 2 draws last 8 matches.
  • 5 losses in 6 away.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • 2-2, 1-3, 3-2 v 17th and lower away.

Conclusions

  • The first thing to note is that these 2 are most likely to collect points against fellow bottom 5 sides, 2-0 or 1-0 for Alaves and high scoring matches away for Deportivo. Tough to see the type of match, tight goals wise or a goal fest as per Depor's away matches?
  • The recent form and momentum must be with Alaves of late.5 wins in their last 7 matches must count for something? If that form is upheld, this suggests Depor are layable if scoring first.

19:45 - Malaga v Valencia - 2.14 Valencia

  • 1-0, 1-2, 2-0 the last 3 head to heads at Malaga. They have been competitive and won 2.

Malaga (20th)

  • 6 defeats and 2 draws last 8 matches.
  • 5 of the defeats were 1-0, a draw 1-1 and another 0-0 so really tight and tough to score a 2nd goal against. BUT.....not scoring to win.
  • Failed to score in 7 of their last 8 matches.
  • All defeats v top 6 but only met one of the top 6 at home.

Valencia (3rd)

  • 3 defeats in 4 matches.
  • 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 matches were the only defeats all season.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • No draw in 10 and in 9 away.
  • Conceded in their last 11 matches.
  • Unbeaten at halftime away.
  • No 0-0 away.
  • 9 wins, a draw and a loss v teams 12th and lower. 1-1 away v 17th, 2-1 loss v 18th and 1-2 win v 19th.
  • 75% of away goals conceded came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Valencia are clearly going through a rough time at the moment but in Malaga they meet a side failing to score in 7 of their last 8 matches. This could present Valencia with an opportunity for redemption today. They have conceded in 11 matches. Certainly you feel if Malaga score first, Malaga are layable.

FRENCH LIGUE 1

16:00 - Paris St-G v Strasbourg - 1.09 PSG

  • No strong research. Strasbourg are one or 2 teams to have beaten PSG.
  • PSG have scored 2+ goals at home in 100% wins. Strasbourg away have lost to nil v top 4 conceding 2-4 goals.
  • With 5 losses in 7 matches, Strasbourg may be feeling the pressure.
  • The odds suggest 3+ goals for PSG today and a goal before halftime. The second leg of the Champions League for PSG is on the 6th March 2018. We will not see rested players.

19:00 - Montpellier v Guingamp - 1.81 Montpellier

  • 1-1, 1-1, 0-0 last 3 head to heads.

Montpellier (6th)

  • Only 3 defeats since 16th September 2017.
  • 3 wins in 4 matches.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Only 1 loss at home v 9th and lower came v bottom side.

Guingamp (10th)

  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 5 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 away.
  • No win v top 7.
  • All losses away v top 7.

Conclusions

  • 2 top 10 sides and on a strict reading of the form, Montpellier should not lose today.
  • With 7 0-0's at halftime at home, do not be surprised with a goal less 1st half but do expect 2nd half goals.
  • Guingamp look layable if scoring first.

ITALIAN SERIA A

14:00 - Udinese v Roma - 1.85 Roma

  • Roma have won the recent set of head to head matches.

Udinese (10th)

  • Only 2 losses in 11 matches came away.
  • 2 wins and 2 1-1 draws last 4 at home.
  • No 0-0.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Did lose to 1st and 2nd at home.

Roma (4th)

  • Upcoming Champions League fixture to distract? Win, Loss, Win, Win, prior to Champions League matches this season included a win over Udinese so no concerns you feel for Roma today.
  • 2 consecutive wins.
  • 1-0-0-1-1-1 scored away recently. That may not be enough today.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 away.
  • Only 1 away loss v 2nd.

Conclusions

  • Roma do not tend to lose prior to Champions League matches. Their head to head record with Udinese is impressive too.
  • Given Udinese's recent 1-1's at home, I would lay Udinese if Udinese scored first as Roma have failed to score only 4 times all season.
  • I am concerned with Roma's inability to get that 2nd goal recently away.

19:45 - Genoa v Inter - 2.48 Inter

  • 3 consecutive Genoa wins at home head to heads. 4 1-0 scorelines in 5 matches hits the spot as far as Genoa are concerned as you will see in research.

Genoa (12th)

  • 7 1-0 scorelines, 2 0-0's , a 1-1 and 2 2-1 scorelines in their last 12 matches.
  • 1-0, 1-0, 0-1 last 3 matches at home.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Not led at halftime at home.
  • Not beaten a top 13 side at home.
  • Scored and conceded at home v top 5 in stark contrast to recent 1-0's.

Inter Milan (3rd)

  • 4 consecutive 1-1 scorelines ended with a 2-1 win and that required the assistance of a Bologna red card or two. This still suggests a struggle up front for Milan.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Only 1 away loss was a 1-0.
  • Scored and conceded in 6/8 matches away v 11th and lower.
  • 11 of 15 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • A long term pattern of under 1.5 goals for Genoa but noticeably they are scoring and conceding in generally over 2.5 goals matches v top 5 teams.
  • Inter Milan have scored and conceded in 5 matches without defeat.
  • Genoa can pull off a 1-0 but I think Inter Milan could equalise if going behind. This is another of those risky calls given Genoa's ingrained strong defence.
  • Notice Inter's strong 2nd half scoring away.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 - Hamburg v Leverkusen - 2.06 Leverkusen

  • 1-0, 0-0, 1-0 the results when Leverkusen have visited Hamburg. Leverkusen tend to win at home.

Hamburg (17th)

  • Only 4 wins.
  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • All home losses v top 4.
  • 7 losses and a draw v top 6.

Leverkusen (5th)

  • 2 consecutive matches without scoring. We are familiar with these as they featured in the live chat webinars.
  • Only 2 defeats since 24th September makes me want to be with Leverkusen but they have let me down twice now.
  • Remember the last 2 matches are the only ones they have failed to score in.
  • No defeat in 8 away.
  • Only 1 0-0 away.
  • Not played the bottom 2 away, lost to 3rd bottom. beat the bottom 2 at home.16 of 21 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Delay delay delay here given Leverkusen's 2 consecutive failures to score. On form, we side with Leverkusen but that was the case last week and the week before.
  • Leverkusen are undefeats in 8 away.
  • If they have not scored mid second half I would have to wait to the very end of the match before taking on a 0-0.

14:30 - Wolfsburg  v Bayern Munich - 1.4 Bayern

  • Bayern tend to win head to heads, but 2-2 last head to head.
  • Bayern have a Champions League match on the 20th August 2018.

Wolfsburg (13th)

  • Only 4 wins.
  • Scored in their last 10 at home.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • 6 1-1 scorelines at home.
  • Losses at home v 3rd and 4th, conceding 3 goals.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals at home.

Bayern (1st)

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • 9 consecutive wins.
  • Scored in their last 19 matches.
  • Scored first in 9/11 away.

Conclusions

  • Best case Wolfsburg a 1-1? The score draw maestros must be layed if scoring first on that basis.

14:30 - FC Koln v Hannover - 2.36 FC Koln

  • 0-2 Koln and 0-0 last 2 head to heads.

FC Koln (18th)

  • Vast improvement under new manager saw 3 consecutive wins and a draw. Last 2 matches both teams scored and Koln lost to Dortmund and Frankfurt.
  • 5 consecutive matches without a 0-0 at halftime.
  • 8 matches into the new manager's career.
  • 3-4 at home (unlucky loss), 1-0, 2-1, 1-1, 2-3 v Dortmund at home. Solid enough.

Hannover 96

  • Scored and conceded in 8 of their last 10 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • No win in 6 away.
  • Conceded in their last 10 away.
  • No 0-0 away.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Unbeaten v bottom 3.
  • 9 of 11 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • I like Koln at home under this new manager. Solid results. They may concede but last 2 matches have battled from behind to equalise at some point. I would lay Hannover if Hannover lead here.

17:30 - Schalke v Hoffenheim - 2.12 Schalke

  • Hoff are unbeaten in the last 3 head to heads.

Schalke (6th)

  • Only 1 win in 6 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 9 of their last 10 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 at home.
  • Scored in their last 16 matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • 9 1-0 leads at halftime at home.
  • Losses at home v 1st and 15th.
  • 10 of 13 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
  • Scored first in 10/11 at home.

Hoffenheim (8th)

  • Scored and conceded in their last 6 with just the one win.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • No win in 6 away.
  • No 0-0.
  • Not beaten a top 15 side away.
  • Scored and conceded in all bar 1 match v those top 15 away.

Conclusions

  • Hoff are unbeaten in 3 head to heads.
  • There is a very strong both teams to score bias for both teams but with the Hoff away, they tend not to win v top 15. Can that change?
  • 9 1-0 leads at halftime for Schalke at the very least suggests we lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

17:30 - Vitesse v Excelsior - 1.32 Vitesse

  • 1-0 Excelsior and 0-3 Vitesse in the last 2 head to heads.

Vitesse (7th)

  • 4 wins , a draw and a loss last 6 matches.
  • No defeat in 6 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • 2 losses at home v top 3.

Excelsior (12th)

  • Only 2 wins in 12 matches.
  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • 5 losses in 6 away.
  • Conceded in their last 8 away matches.
  • No 0-0 away.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Only 1 win v top 7 home and away.
  • Scored and conceded in all aways v 6th and lower.

Conclusions

  • On recent form we opt for Vitesse here, undefeated in 6 at home. Their 2 home losses came v the top 3 which infers that they will cope with 12th.
  • Excelsior do tend to score and concede away from home though so note that.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on Excelsior.

18:45 - Breda v Az Alkmaar - 1.62 AZ Alkmaar

  • 4 consecutive AZ wins in head to heads.

Breda (15th)

  • Only 5 wins.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • No draw in 9 at home.
  • Conceded in their last 11 at home.
  • 6 defeats and a win v top 5.
  • 67% of goals scored and conceded came 2nd half at home.

AZ (3rd)

  • Only 4 defeats.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
  • Dailed to score in only 3 matches.
  • No defeat in 10 away.
  • Scored in their last 11 away.
  • Only 1 away loss v 1st.
  • 8 goals scored away last 15 mins of matches.

Conclusions

  • I like AZ this season. They like meeting Breda. Breda recently scored first v Ajax at home and lost by halftime. This could happen again. AZ look strong here and should not lose. Do note that Breda beat another inform side in Utrecht at home but that was the only win as part of 6 defeats v top 5 teams.

18:45 - PSV v Heerenveen - 1.34 PSV

  • 4-3 PSV and 2-0 Heerenveen last 2 head to heads, prior to that 3 1-1 draws. Heerenveen tend to give PSV a game!

PSV (1st)

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • Those were the only 2 matches where they failed to score.
  • 11 consecutive home wins.
  • Unbeaten at halftime at home.
  • Scored first in 9/11 at home.

Heerenveen (9th)

  • Only 4 wins since 1st October 2017.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Scored in their last 12 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 5 matches away.
  • Only 1 0-0 away.
  • Beat PSV at home 2-0 but away not beaten top 7 teams and scored and conceded away v top 16 teams.

Conclusions

  • PSV at home should gain revenge over Heerenveen for their 2-0 win earlier this season.
  • Heerenveen score and conceded away v top 16 teams and v top 7 away are winless.
  • A good angle therefore? Lay any Heerenveen lead.

ENGLISH F.A.CUP

15:00 - Brighton v Coventry - 1.4 Brighton

  • An FA Cup meeting between 14th in the English Premier League and 9th in League Two.
  • We saw last night that the market was spot on with the 2 Premier League sides both winning to nil within 90 minutes.
  • There should be no reason that Brighton will not play their first team, what with a suspension of English Premier League football this weekend.
  • Some solid recent form for Brighton. Their only losses recently came v Tottenham, Chelsea, West Brom and Chelsea again.
  • Only 2 losses at home for Brighton since 22nd August 2017 is momentum I am sure they will be keen to keep.
  • 3 wins in 4 for Brighton in the FA Cup and 2 recent wins v Palace and Middlesbrough suggests the odds are right today.
  • No draw for Coventry in 2018 in all competitions and 3 consecutive defeats is not the form you'd want coming into this match.
  • 4 consecutive FA Cup wins for Coventry, and one was v Stoke 2-1 which catches the eye.
  • There is a suggestion here that a first team for Brighton will cope with Coventry today. Brighton have had a couple of solid recent wins v Premier League and English Championship sides. That is a simple angle into today's match.

17:30 - Huddersfield v Man Utd - 1.44 Man Utd

  • Man Utd took revenge on the shock loss to Huddersfield with a 2-0 win last head to head.
  • This is the FA Cup on this occasion.
  • Man Utd won this month at home. Since then, 1-4 and 4-1 Huddersfield albeit the first came in extra time in the FA Cup.
  • 0-0 v Man City and 1-1 v Birmingham for Huddersfield in their last 2 home Cup matches.
  • 2 consecutive away losses for Man Utd v Tottenham and Newcastle.
  • Since 4th Jan 2015, Man Utd have only lost to Arsenal and Chelsea in the F.A. Cup. Only 1 away loss to for United in the FA Cup.
  • Team news will be key for Man Utd. I cannot give that at the time of writing. www.flashscore.com, Live Centre and Line Ups for the line ups. We want to see a strong Man Utd side.
  • With 2 consecutive away defeats, I feel United will want to end that sequence, for momentum purposes. Surely Huddersfield will not be allowed to strike twice at home v United? Their win v Bournemouth was excellent!

PORTUGEUSE PRIMIERA LIGA

18:15 - Benfica v Boavista - 1.17 Benfica

  • 3-3, 2-2 and 2-1 Boavista in the last 3 head to heads.

Benfica (2nd)

  • 2 points and match more played than 1st placed Porto. This becomes a must-win if Benfica want a title challenge in a week where Porto may be Champions League fatigued.
  • Only 1 loss this season was against Boavista.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 9 matches.
  • No defeat in 16 matches.
  • Scored in their last 10 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 100% wins at home v 4th and lower.
  • Led at halftime in 70% of home matches.

Boavista (6th)

  • 2 consecutive away defeats to nil.
  • Not played top 4 away.
  • Not beaten top 11 away with 5 defeats and a 0-0 - failed to score in 4 matches away v top 9.
  • 7 of 10 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • The value (but not necessarily the winning position) is in laying Benfica, particularly if Benfica lead. Why? Boavista have 2 draws and a win in their last 3 head to heads Are they Benfica's bogey team?
  • The market expects Benfica to score 3+ goals today in a win. Boavista, form wise, do not score v top 9 away from home. As I say a throwaway lay of Benfica leading will see a lay at odds of 1.1 or shorter based on head to heads. On form, Boavista are likely to lose possibly without scoring.