Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

I will try and tennis trade through the day. I am with family this month though (now WRWM newsletter allows for this!) I have my mobile device with me. Already a nice trade in the Konjuh match so watch Twitter @drtclub and set up automatic alerts so you can go out as I do, and do other stuff and wait for any trading angles.

13:00 - RoPS v FC Inter - 2.3 FC Inter

  • 6-2 Inter in the last head to head.
  • This is 10th v 4th in the Finnish Veikkausliiga.

RoPS

  • No draw this season means no 0-0.
  • Lost to top 3 at home.
  • Lost to all top 5 home and away.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
  • 8 of 11 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

FC Inter

  • Only 1 away loss.
  • Wins away v 6th, 8th 11th, 12th.
  • 4 clean sheets in 5 matches.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • 4 consecutive away wins.
  • Scored 2+ goals in each of their last 4 away matches.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals away.
  • 8 of 11 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • The market is a puzzler here. On form, surely FC Inter has the better form? Look at the teams they are beating away from home, all around RoPS in the league.
  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • RoPS are highly likely to concede today and FC Inter could score 2 goals so I would look to oppose any RoPS lead.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • I am with FC Inter today on form.

13:00 - HIFK v PS Kemi - 2.04 HIFK

  • 0-0 the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 11th v 9th in the Finnish Veikkausliiga.

HIFK

  • Only 1 win.
  • Failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • Failed to score in their last 4 home matches and not scored 2 goals in a home match.
  • Opponents have scored first in 5/8 home matches.
  • Not beaten a top 9 team.

PS Kemi

  • Only 1 loss in 5.
  • 3-4 goals scored last 2 away matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • No away draw.
  • 100% over 2.5 goals away.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late 0-0. Will we see another over 2.5 goals match away for PS Kemi?
  • With PS Kemi scoring 7 goals in 2 away matches, I think they are favoured today against an HIFK failing to score in their last 4 home matches.
  • I would take a chance on PS Kemi scoring first. With HIFK failing to score that 2nd goal, lay HIFK if HIFK score first.

13:00 - SJK v VPS - 1.99 SJK

  • 1-3 SJK in the last head to head.
  • This is 8th v 2nd in the Finnish Veikkausliiga.

SJK

  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in 2 of their last 3.
  • Only 2 home defeats.
  • No 0-0.
  • 8 of 10 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • Not played top 3 at home  and beat 2nd 1-3 away!

VPS

  • Only 1 loss in 11 matches.
  • 3 consecutive draws.
  • Unbeaten in 7 away.
  • Only 1st has beaten VPS away.

Conclusions

  • The market goes with SJK but VPS has only lost to 1st in the league away from home.
  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • SJK are highly likely to score 2nd half if they have not scored by halftime.
  • Lay any late draw and hope VPS end their 3 match draw sequence.
  • SJK beat VPS easily away but VPS unbeaten away outside of 1st. Tough to call.

16:00 - Russia v New Zealand - 1.34 Russia

  • Very tough to research this Confederations Cup match given New Zealand don't tend to play any European sides.
  • New Zealand look highly defensive.
  • Russia in recent friendlies, has scored 3 goals in 2 separate matches.
  • I would expect a Russia win today, it would be 1-0, it could be 3-0.

17:00 - Portugal U21 v Serbia U21 - 1.86 Portugal U21

  • This is a UEFA u21 Championship match.
  • Portugal U21 has not lost a UEFA u21 Championship match since November 2011.
  • 4-4-3-4-0-1-3-7 goals scored by Portugal in recent matches. They have goals in them.
  • There is no home advantage for Portugal U21.
  • Serbia U21 has beaten the likes of Ireland, Slovenia and Norway, scoring 2/3 goals so have goals in them v the right team.
  • There are no head to heads so that makes weighing up this match difficult.
  • Keep faith in Portugal's superb unbeaten run in this competition since November 2011 and lay Serbia U21 if Serbia U21 score first.

17:00 - Kristiansund v Aalesund - 2.78 Kristiansund

  • 1-1 in the last head to head which was a friendly.
  • This is 15th v 5th in the Norwegian Eliteserien after 12 matches.

Kristiansund

  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Unbeaten in 5 at home.
  • v top 8, only 1 win in 4 matches.1-0 win at home v 3rd.
  • No 0-0.
  • Only 1 goal in home matches before halftime.
  • Scored first in 5/6 at home.

Aalesunds

  • Only 2 losses in 10 matches were 0-1.
  • Unbeaten in 5 away.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 11th and lower - scored and conceded in the 3 matches v 13th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • If 0-0 at halftime expect 2nd half goals as Kristiansund home goals scored and conceded tend to come 2nd half.
  • I would lay Kristiansund if they score first - they tend to score first but Aalesunds tend to score and concede v 13th and lower without losing.

19:45 - Sligo Rovers v Galway United - 2.36 Sligo

  • Both teams have scored in each of the last 7 head to heads.
  • This is 10th v 12th in the Irish Premier Division. 2 bottom 3 sides. Can they be relied upon?

Sligo Rovers

  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Only 3 wins.
  • 7 draws this season, 3 draws in 4 matches.
  • No 1-0 or 0-1 at home.
  • Only 2 losses at home came v 1st and 2nd.
  • All draws v 9th and lower.

Galway United

  • 3 consecutive defeats.
  • Only 2 wins came at home.
  • 8 draws, 7 of them were score draws.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Conceded in every away match. Conceded 2 goals in each of their last 3 away matches.
  • All draws away v 6th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Both teams to score again looks highly probable based on a) head to heads b) form for Sligo v 9th and lower c) form of Galway away v 6th and lower.
  • Back 1-1 and 2-2 as possible trading angles? There has been no 1-0 or 0-1 for Sligo at home so lay the 0-1 or 1-0 leader?

19:45 - Spain U21 v Macedonia u21 - 1.2 Spain U21

  • Spain u21 are not invincible. Only 2 losses since 2011 in this U21 UEFA Championship came v Serbia U21 in November 2014 and Croatia U21 in March 2016.
  • Spain U21 are on a 2 match draw run, v Austria U21 who seem to have their measure.
  • Recent Spanish wins have come v San Marino U21 and Estonia U21. This reveals little.
  • Macedonia U21 have only 1 loss since 2015. 5 clean sheets in 6 matches suggests their strengths.
  • Recent wins have come v Scotland U21 and Northern Ireland U21.
  • Faith in the market here. Tough to evaluate the strength of the teams Macedonia U21 has beaten, against Spain U21.
  • Lay any late draw and hope the Spanish end their draw sequence.
  • If you want a speculative trade, back 0-0 pre-match and hope that Macedonia U21 bring their defensive game with them. I tend to trade out of a 0-0 at halftime.

ATP Stuttgart

Mischa Zverev v Feliciano Lopez - 1.8 Lopez

  • 35th v 40th No wonder the market cannot split these 2 players.
  • Lopez though has a 3-0 record in head to heads.
  • With 2 3-setters from Lopez, this suggests laying Zverev if he wins the first set.
  • Lopez beating of Berdych catches the eye. Berdych on grass last year was superb.
  • Lopez has a back concern but the market did not express concern v Berdych.

Lucas Pouille v Benoit Paire - 1.66 Pouille

  • 14th v 49th.
  • 1-1 head to heads.
  • 2 3-setters for better ranked Pouille so far in this tournament. The beating of German Kohlschreiber in Germany is eye-catching.
  • 39th, 139th, 165th ranked players beaten by Paire suggets to me that Paire has had an easy run of it.
  • I would side with Pouille today and lay Paire if Paire wins the first set. Pouille's 3-setters suggests an ability to fight.

RICOH OPEN

Ana Konjuh v Vikhlyantseva - 1.71 Konjuh

  • 34th v 77th.
  • No head to heads.
  • 34th v 77th. Rankings are not too far apart.
  • 75th, 134th, 140th ranked players beaten by Konjuh. 3 sets v 75th and play 77th today.
  • 603rd, 78th and 184th beaten by Vikh so she has not realistically been stretched.
  • Konjuh has a historical 20-8 win to loss record on grass.
  • She reached the Final in Nottingham last year but 2nd round only at Eastbourne and Wimbledon.
  • Vikh has a 4-2 win loss record on grass.
  • I would lay Vikh if Vikh wins the first set given she has played generally low ranked players to get here. Konjuh also has greater competitive experience on grass.

Kontaveit v Tsurenko - 1.65 Kontaveit

  • 73rd v 42nd.
  • Tsurenko won the 2016 head to head.
  • Tsurenko is yet to drop a set which suggests if she drops the first set, lay Kontaveit.
  • 2 3-setters for Kontaveit may back this up too. Tsurenko beat 19th in the rankings last match - good effort.

Gilles Muller v Alexander Zverev - 1.32 Zverev

  • 28th v 21st. I was surprised to see Muller at such a ranking.
  • Muller won 1-0 in head to head.
  • Muller had a tie breaker first set 1st match but won 2-0. 2-1 last match.
  • Zverev yet to drop a set.
  • Last year, we had a Zverev final in Halle, and 3rd round Wimbledon.
  • Quarter Final, semi final, 2nd round Wimbledon, finalist Hall of Fame. Reasonable form for Muller.
  • I think Zverev's odds are too short off the bat. Muller is not a push over as his grass court form and ranking relays.
  • I would take a chance and lay Zverev 1.32. I would lay Zverev too if he wins the first set. Nice low odds lay.

Marin Cilic v Ivo Karlovic - 1.55 Marin Cilic

  • 8th v 22nd.
  • Cilic won the most recent head to head in 2 sets. Karlovic won 2 of the last 3 head to heads so that serve can be a threat.
  • Karlovic is yet to have a tie breaker in this competition. I have noted previously that top 10 players tend to be able to suss out this Karlovic serve.
  • These 2 though have seen at least a tie breaker in the 4 completed head to heads so we can conclude that Cilic might be the exception to the rule regarding top 10 finding the Karlo serve easier than lesser ranked players.
  • I would see the Cilic odds rise and would be happy backing him at odds of 2.00 or thereabouts.

WTA Nottingham

Konta v Rybarikova - 1.45 Konta

  • 1-0 Konta head to head from Notts in 2015.
  • 7th v 384th and again Konta's odds have been relatively big considering she has had 2 relatively good 2-0 set wins.
  • Konta is far and away the shortest ranked player Rybarikova has met yet. v Riske Rybarikova bucked the odds.
  • I would lay Rybar if she wins first set.