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DRT Daily Tips Bulletin, March 17, 2018

The shorties are at the DRT Facebook page along with the goals before halftime. I will do a shortlist to. I will also reproduce a recent article on Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market along with updated results based on uniform pre-match odds of 4.00 which I think is a fair assessment of the lay odds. The news is good from a bet-and-go perspective.
See you at 14:30 for the Germans. Please note that there may not be a live chat next weekend. I have a relative staying (yes, I know, I'm over the moon too).

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

15:00 - Bournemouth v West Brom - 1.92 Bournemouth

  • 2-1 West Brom and 1-0 West Brom last 2 head to heads. How they will want 3 points today.

Bournemouth (12th)

  • Scored and conceded in 10 of their last 11 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 6 at home.
  • Unbeaten at home v 11th and lower.
  • 14 of 21 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

West Brom (20th and bottom)

  • 6 consecutive defeats.
  • 0-0-1-1-1-0-0-0 scored away recently. Pardew doing little to effect West Brom.
  • No win 14 away.
  • 100% defeats v 10th and lower away 4 were 1-0.
  • 16 of 23 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • 8 matches remain (24 points) and West brom are currently 7 points shy of 2nd bottom, not to mention 10+ points shy of actual safety outside of the bottom 3.
  • Bournemouth are scoring and conceding so may give West Brom a chance. But West Brom have not scored that 2nd goal away in their last 8 matches.
  • Lay West Brom if West Brom scores first.

15:00 - Huddersfield v C Palace - 2.74 Palace

  • The market does not fancy this encounter. It is a relegation six pointer so I suggest form will be thrown out of the window. It's win at all expenses.
  • Quick research here.
  • 15th v 18th here.Huddersfield have a 4 point gap to the relegation zone. After all of Palace's gutsy displays under Woy Hodgson they are very surprisingly bottom 3.
  • Only 2 wins in 12 Huddersfield v Bournemouth and West Brom.But now, 5 defeats and 2 draws Palace sees the wheels fall off. The last 3 teams they played? Tottenham, Man Utd, Chelsea.
  • Palace have scored and conceded last 6 away. Will that continue today?
  • On form Palace are unbeaten away v 14th and lower albeit 3 draws and a win.
  • 0-0, 1-1, 1-0 Huddersfield at home v 17th and lower.
  • Market right here. I will take the both teams to score trend here for Palace which hints at a 1-1?

15:00 - Stoke v Everton - 2.54 Stoke

  • Another unappealing market. The reason? New manager Stoke.
  • 0-0-2-1-0-0-2 conceded by Stoke recently. A clear focus on defence. 2 conceded by Bournemouth and Man City.
  • 2-0, 0-0, 1-1 at home for Stoke - we'll forget the Man City loss!
  • 5 consecutive away defeats Everton. Big Sam cannot get them replicating that outstanding home form.
  • 0-1-0-1-0-1 scored by Everton recently away. You feel Stoke's new manager has this defensive set up at home. Meet an Everton failing to score that 2nd away and there is a suggestion we lay Everton if Everton scores first.

17:30 - Liverpool v Watford - 1.21 Liverpool

  • 0-1 Liverpool and 3-3 last 2 head to heads.

Liverpool (4th)

  • All 4 defeats came away.
  • Scored 2+ goals in each of their last 6 home matches.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 5 home draws came v top 9.
  • Not conceded a 2nd goal at home v 5th and lower.
  • 67% of goals scored at home came 2nd half; 70% of goals conceded at home 2nd half.

Watford (10th)

  • All 4 wins since 28th November 2017 came at home.
  • Failed to score last 4 away.
  • All defeats away v top 11.

Conclusions

  • On form Watford tend to concede 3 goals v top sides away.
  • IT should be as easy as the odds suggest. Do note the strong 2nd half goals stats for Liverpool.

ENGLISH F.A.CUP

12:15 - Swansea v Tottenham - 1.47 Tottenham

19:45 - Man Utd v Brighton - 1.34 Man Utd

No research to do. Check team news and follow the inplay stats.

ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

12:30 - Fulham v QPR - 1.59 Fulham

  • 1-1 and 1-2 Fulham in the last 2 head to head.

Fulham (4th)

  • 9 consecutive home wins.
  • No defeat in 15.
  • 5 consecutive home clean sheets.
  • Scored 2+ goals in their last 7 home matches.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home (33%).
  • 66% of goals scored at home came 2nd half.

QPR (15th)

  • Draw and 2 wins last 3 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 6 away.
  • Only 1 0-0 away.
  • 8 losses and a win away v top 10.

Conclusions

  • QPR have beaten Aston Villa away but tend to lose to top 10.
  • If Fulham continue their excellent run, expect 2 goals at least. So lay QPR if QPR scores first.
  • Note Fulham score a lost 2nd half if 0-0 or 0-1 at halftime.

15:00 - Wolves v Burton - 1.28 Wolves

  • 0-4 Wolves in the last head to head.

Wolves (1st)

  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home (28%).
  • Clean sheets in 3/3 v the bottom 3.
  • 11 goals from 15 at home conceded 2nd half.

Burton (23rd)

  • Failed to score in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • Failed to score in 11 of 14 matches away v top 16.

Conclusions

  • We should eye a clean sheet for Wolves today so any Burton goal, particularly if they score first, will be an anomoly and layable.
  • Quite high % 0-0's at halftime.

FRENCH LIGUE 1

19:00 - Bordeaux v Rennes - 2.08 Bordeaux

  • 1-1, 1-1, 1-0 Rennes last 3 head to heads.

Bordeaux (9th)

  • 2 consecutive home 0-0's - something to take on.
  • A loss to 2nd Monaco at home but unbeaten at home v 3rd-7th inclusive.
  • 61% of goals scored at home came 1st half, 75% of goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Rennes (6th)

  • 3 wins and 2 draws last 5 matches.
  • Scored 2-2-2-2-1 last 5.
  • Scored 2+ goals in 4 of their last 5 away.
  • Failed to score only 5 matches.
  • Scored in their last 10 away.
  • Scored 2 goals + on 8 occasions away. All defeats away conceded 2+ goals.

Conclusions

  • I would certainly be taking on that 0-0 today.
  • If Rennes are losing away when conceding 2+ goals and Bordeaux have failed to score in 3/4 matches, logic suggests the away side hold the key here.
  • If they continue to score 2 goals, we lay any Bordeaux lead today.

19:00 - Montpellier v Dijon - 1.62 Montpellier

  • 1-1 and 2-1 Dijon in the last 2 head to heads.

Montpellier (8th)

  • Only 3 defeats since 16th September.
  • 4 consecutive draws, 3 were 1-1.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 at home.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home (46%).
  • Not played, 9th, 10th 11th at home but only 1 loss at home v teams below them in the league.

Dijon (10th)

  • 3 draws in 4 matches.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • No win in 9 away.
  • Only 1 away win v 20th.

Conclusions

  • Montpellier justifiable favourite given Dijon's dire away form.
  • I would not discount a draw but would certainly be laying a Dijon lead.
  • Big % 0-0 at home for Montpellier so take on the 0-0's 2nd half.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 - Mgladbach v Hoffenheim - 2.64 Hoff

  • 5-3 Hoff and 1-3 Mgladbach in the last 2 head to heads.

Mgladbach (9th)

  • Only 1 win in 7 matches and the 5 recent defeats were all to nil, 3 1-0 defeats.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home (30%).
  • Only 1 win at home v top 7 (win v 1st!).
  • 12 of 15 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Hoffenheim (7th)

  • Only 1 loss in 6. 2 consecutive wins to nil.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored in their last 11 and last 6 away.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Scored in all bar 2 away.
  • Only 3 away wins v 8th and 2 of the bottom 3.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals away.

Conclusions

  • Hoff's away form is not all that but they do tend to score so note that if Mgladbach keep a clean sheet for a while.
  • We should expect 2 goals at least.
  • Note Mgladbach concede most 2nd half at home so keep faith in the Hoff if they have not scored by halftime.

14:30 - Frankfurt v Mainz - 1.66 Frankfurt

  • 4-2 Mainz and 1-1 last 2 league head to heads.

Frankfurt (5th)

  • Only 3 losses in 11 came away.
  • 2 draws and 4 consecutive wins at home.
  • Only 5 clean sheets though.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Only 1 loss at home v 9th and lower.

Mainz (16th)

  • Only 2 wins in 14 matches.
  • Only 1 away 0-0.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away (39%).
  • Conceded 2 goals at least v all top 7 away.

Conclusions

  • The market is right here. Mainz tend to concede 2 goals at least v top 7. Frankfurt tend to score and concede so lay Mainz if Mainz score first.
  • Lay any late 0-0.

14:30 - Augsburg v Werder Bremen - 2.5 Augsburg

  • 3-2 Augsburg and 0-3 Augsburg last 2 head to heads.

Augsburg (9th)

  • 2 consecutive home defeats without scoring.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Only 1 home loss v teams below them in the league.2-1-1-3-2-1-3 goals scored.
  • Scored and conceded v 10th-15th inclusive at home.
  • 7 goals scored last 15 mins of home matches.

Werder Bremen (13th)

  • Only 3 losses in 13 the positive influence of a new manager.
  • 4 wins, a draw and a loss last 6 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 8 away.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Only 2 away wins v 2nd and 3rd - welcome to the World of Werder.
  • 8 of 11 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Note the market cannot split these 2. Augsburg like meeting Werder but this seems a better Werder under new manager.
  • Augsburg are good v teams below them in the league so note that if Werder lead or keep it to 0-1.
  • Augsburg tend to score and concede 2.
  • Late goals for Augsburg so if losing or drawing 75th minute, and the inplay stats are good, take a chance on another late Augsburg goal.
  • Werder still find winning away tough but I would not discount a draw. I would expect them to concede given they have conceded last 8 away.

17:30 - Wolfsburg v Schalke - 2.24 Schalke

  • 1-0 Schalke last head to head.

Wolfsburg (15th)

  • 4 defeats in 5.
  • Scored and conceded in 11 of their last 12 at home.
  • Scored in their last 12 at home.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime at home (23%).
  • All defeats at home v top 5.
  • 70% of goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Schalke (2nd)

  • Only 3 defeats since 29th September.
  • 4 consecutive wins.
  • 3 consecutive clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime in 15 matches.
  • Scored in their last 20 matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime away (31%).
  • 1-2, 0-1, 0-1 away v 13th and lower.
  • 14 of 19 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • With Wolfsburg, both teams tend to score which may scupper a Schalke 0-1 win which has occured lately and v 13th and lower away from home.
  • If the better side (Schalke) are to win, it looks like a 1-2.
  • The Wolf do look layable if leading. They do not do 1-0's. Different matter for Schalke who do 0-1's.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on Schalke's single 0-0 in 15 matches (albeit it did come last match).

ITALIAN SERIA A

17:00 - Udinese v Sassuolo - 2.24 Udinese

  • 1-0 Sassuolo, 1-2 Sassuolo and 0-1 Udinese last 3 head to heads.

Udinese (11th)

  • 4 consecutive defeats conceding 2 goals.
  • Only 1 win in 9. New manager struggling to keep earlier momentum.
  • No 0-0.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home (15.4%).
  • 1-1 v 17th at home and 2 wins v bottom 2 at home. Lowering of sights might see a return for Udinese.

Sassuolo (18th)

  • No win in 9 matches.
  • 3 consecutive away defeats.
  • No 0-0 away.
  • Only 2 wins v top 13 home and away. 3 of 4 away wins were only 0-1.

Conclusions

  • If Udinese score today, they should not lose. Sassuolo tend towards the 0-1.
  • It's a risk given Sassuolo like the 0-1 win, but lay them if they score first. Udinese, with sights lowered, tend to score v bottom 4 teams.

19:45 - SPAL v Juventus - 1.36 Juventus

  • 4-1 Juve last head to head.

SPAL (17th)

  • 2 wins and a draw last 3 matches.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • 3-5-1-4 goals conceded at home v top 6.
  • 2-2-1 scored at home v top 5.

Juventus (1st)

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • 12 consecutive wins.
  • 9 consecutive clean sheets and 5 away.
  • Unbeaten at halftime away.
  • 100% wins v 9th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Points critical for both teams for different reasons.
  • SPAL must stop conceding 3+ goals v top 6. They even scored 2 goals twice but conceded more than they scored so watch that.
  • On form, Juventus will be tough to beat. Expecting a win.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

17:30 - Twente v Willem II - 1.89 Twente

  • 2-1 Twente and 3-1 Willem II last 2 head to heads.

Twente (17th)

  • Scored and conceded last 5.
  • 2 consecutive 1-1 draws at home. They need wins though.
  • Only 1 win since 27th October 2017.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • No win in 9 at home.
  • No home 0-0.
  • 2 0-0's at halftime at home (15%).
  • 1-1 at home v 13th, 16th and 3-0 v 18th.

Willem II (15th)

  • 2 wins in 3 came at home.
  • 5 consecutive away defeats.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime in 17 matches.
  • No win in 8 away.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime away (15%).
  • Only 1 loss v 12th and lower home and away.

Conclusions

  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • 1-1 looks a viable option. We cannot discount this Willem II side, recent beaters of PSV, and only 1 loss v 12th and lower home and away.
  • Value may be in laying a Twente 1-0 lead given they are already odds on favourites.
  • Remember this looks like a relegation six pointer so form may be thrown out of the window.

18:45 - Vitesse v Heracles - 1.52 Vitesse

  • 0-1 Vitesse and 1-1 last 2 head to heads.

Vitesse (6th)

  • Scored and conceded last 5 matches.
  • 3 wins in 4 at home.
  • Failed to score only 3 times.
  • Only 1 0-0 all season.
  • 2 of 3 home defeats came v top 3.

Heracles (9th)

  • 4 wins in 5.
  • That included the only away win v 18th.
  • Scored and conceded away v 7th-17th.
  • 14 goals conceded last 15 mins of away matches.

Conclusions

  • Both teams may score with Heracles not winning. Vitesse tend to lose to top 3 at home.
  • Heracles are poor travellers but note their first away win came recently.
  • Lay any late 0-0.

18:45 - PSV v VVV - 1.23 PSV

  • 2-5 and 4-1 PSV in the last 2 head to heads.

PSV (1st)

  • Only 3 defeats included a headscratching 5-0 spanking to 4th bottom Willem II last match.
  • No defeat in 13 at home.
  • Scored in those 13.
  • Unbeaten at halftime at home. Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home.

VVV (12th)

  • No win in 6 saw 4 draws.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away.
  • All draws away v top 8.
  • All 9 away goals 2nd half scored last 1/2 hour.

Conclusions

  • What was with that tonking v a poor Willem II? On form, best case for VVV should be a draw. Should that habit continue, lay VVV if VVV score first.
  • PSV have scored in their last 13 at home so note that if they have not scored for a short while in this match.

SPANISH LA LIGA

12:00 - Deportivo v Las Palmas - 1.83 Depor

  • 1-3 Depor and 2-3 Depor last 2 head to heads.

Depor (19th)

  • No win in 13 and in 6 at home.
  • Failed to score in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • Only 1 loss at home v 11th and lower.

Las Palmas (18th)

  • No win in 6.
  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • No win in 12 away.
  • Only 1 loss v 12th and lower away but only 1 away win v bottom side.
  • 23 of 30 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • A relegation six pointer so please note that. Strictly on the form, Depor have a solid look at home v 11th and lower and that gives them the nod here today.
  • Note Las Palmas concede most 2nd half so if not conceding first half, they are most likely to 2nd half.
  • Depor have failed to score regularly recently but contextually scored 2-2-0-2-1-1-2 at home v 11th and lower. 2 goals again today?

15:15 - Valencia v Alaves - 1.46 Valencia

  • 2-1 Valencia, 2-1 Alaves, 1-2 Valencia last 3 League head to heads.

Valencia (4th)

  • 5 wins and a 1-1 last 6 matches. A good push end of season.
  • 2 goals scored in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 100% wins at home v 7th and lower.
  • 18 of 29 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • Led at halftime at home in 8/14 matches.

Alaves (16th)

  • 3 losses in 4 matches.
  • Tough recent away run - Atl Madrid, Bilbao, Barcelona, Villareal (win), Real Madrid, Sociedad.
  • No draw in 13 away.
  • Conceded in their last 9 away.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime away.
  • 100% defeats v top 4.

Conclusions

  • 2-1 anyone? It is a scoreline which occurs a lot. I would have to lay Alaves should they score first given their record v top 4.
  • I would take a chance and lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

17:30 - Sociedad v Getafe - 1.72 Sociedad

  • 2 consecutive 2-1 Getafe wins in head to heads.

Sociedad (14th)

  • 3 consecutive home wins.
  • Scored in their last 6 at home.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Scored and conceded in 9/10 v top 16 at home.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals at home.

Getafe (11th)

  • 3 defeats in 4 matches.
  • No win in 11 away.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Not beaten top 13 away.
  • Only scored 2 goals twice away, a win and a 2-2.

Conclusions

  • We may see a 2-1/1-2 today. I would back these pre match and trade out if we see a 1-1.
  • A very strong both teams to score stat from Sociedad.
  • I was going to lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on Sociedad but nearly 50% Getafe 0-0's puts me off.
  • we should expect 2 goals in total at least today.

PORTUGEUSE PRIMEIRA LIGA

18:15 - Feirense v Benfica - 1.2 Benfica

  • 2 consecutive 1-0 Benfica wins in head to heads.

Feirense (16th)

  • No draw in 24.
  • No home 0-0.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 1-2 and 2-3 losses v top 3.

Benfica (2nd)

  • Only 1 loss.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of last 6 away.
  • Scored last 13.
  • 7 0-1's at halftime away.
  • 100% wins v 13th and lower.
  • Conceded only 1 goal first half away.
  • 11 goals scored away last 15 mins.

Conclusions

  • Benfica should eye 2/3 goals today in a win. Feirense avoid draws of late and don't look capable of a win.
  • Lay the 0-0 halftime score.
  • Late goalscorers Benfica so note that if tight 75th minute.

SCOTTISH PREMIER LEAGUE

15:00 - Aberdeen v Dundee - 1.53 Aberdeen

  • 8 consecutive Aberdeen wins in head to heads.

Aberdeen (3rd)

  • Failed to score last 3 matches.100% wins v 8th and lower at home though puts that into context.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home.

Dundee (10th)

  • 4 defeats in 5 matches.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • 3 wins in 4 away.
  • No 0-0 away.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime away.
  • All defeats away v top 4, scoring in 3 of those matches.

Conclusions

  • Context here. Aberdeen not scored in 3 but 100% wins v 8th and lower at home.
  • Dundee 3 wins in 4 but all defeats away v top 4.
  • Are you with the recent form (Dundee) or the season-long form  Aberdeen). The market is with the latter.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on the percentages.

15:00 - Rangers v Kilmarnock - 1.45 Rangers

  • 0-0, 1-1, 2-1 Kilmarnock last 3 head to heads.

Rangers (2nd)

  • Celtic are Champions.
  • 6 wins in 8 matches.
  • Rangers are still gettable in 2nd.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime in 8 matches.
  • No draw in 10 at home.
  • Only beaten Aberdeen amongst the top 5 at home.

Kilmarnock

  • Only lost to Aberdeen since 2nd December 2017.
  • 1-1-1-1 scored in recent aways though can leave them vulnerable.
  • Only 1 0-0 in 14 at halftime.
  • Scored in their last 15 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in all aways v top 6 with 4 1-1's, a 3-1 and a 1-2 win v 6th.

Conclusions

  • From a value perspective, you'd lay an odds on Rangers if they score first. From a form perspective too. Killy love scoring and conceding and only 1 defeat v top 6 away in 7 matches.
  • Very recent form points to laying the 0-0 in the halftime score market.