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I am leaving any matches where the favourite is 2.4 odds or greater, until the end (if indeed researching the match at all). These matches are usually muddling matches. I want to prioritise the apparently easier-to-read matches.
See you at 14:30 today at delayreacttrade.com for a live chat.

12:15 - Aberdeen v Hearts - 1.8 Aberdeen

  • Some teams become reliable for trading and Aberdeen is one such team at the moment.
  • 0-0 and 0-1 Aberdeen in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 2nd v 4th in the Scottish Premier League.

Aberdeen 100% stats

  • Not conceded in both halves at home.

Aberdeen other stats

  • 3 consecutive 1-0 scorelines, 1 was defeat and 2 were at home. That's what I mean regarding reliability. Faith (if you think Aberdeen would win) in them winning. 69th and 90th minute goals for those 1-0 wins. The previous match saw a 0-1 v Kilmarnock end 1-2 with 83rd and 85th minute Aberdeen winners.
  • 6 consecutive home wins.
  • No draw in 12 matches.
  • 50% 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Scored first in 11/14 at home.

Hearts other stats

  • 4 defeats in their last 5 away.
  • No draw in 5 away.
  • Only 2 away clean sheets.
  • Lost away v top 4 conceding 3 goals at least.

Conclusions

  • On form, Aberdeen should be winning, scoring 3 goals but that might not happen today. 3 matches now, scoring 1-0-1 saw 2 1-0 wins so if you are of the opinion that Aberdeen should win, then it could be a 1-0 only.
  • Only 2 clean sheets for Hearts away suggests they will concede at some point. They should lose heavily but may not today.
  • Lay any late draw as Aberdeen keep avoiding the draws at home.

12:30 - West Brom v Arsenal - 1.78 Arsenal

  • Arsenal won the last 2 head to heads. West Brom won the last home head to head 2-1.
  • This is 8th v 5th in the English Premiership.

West Brom 100% stats

  • Not beaten any team home or away above them in the league.
  • Pundits argue that after 40 points, West Brom simply down tools.
  • Failed to score 2 goals v any top 9 team.

West Brom other stats

  • 2 consecutive defeats to nil.
  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • No draw in 10 at home.

Arsenal 100% stats

  • All away defeats v top 7 sides.

Arsenal other stats

  • Failed to score only twice.
  • Scored in their last 17 matches.
  • 7 consecutive over 2.5 goals away albeit were playing largely top 7 teams.
  • 20 of 29 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Are West Brom vulnerable now they have hit the 40 point mark? 2 consecutive defeats to nil, conceding 5 goals.
  • Arsenal tend to lose to top 7 away and meet 8th today.
  • Only 1 1-0 win for Arsenal last time these 2 met. I could be as tight again. Arsenal have scored in their last 17 matches so do expect a goal from them at some stage if they are losing of if the match is a 0-0.
  • Strong 2nd half scoring bias for Arsenal too.

14:30 - Wolfsburg v SV Darmstadt - 1.55 Wolfs

  • 3-1 Darmstadt in the last head to head.
  • This is 14th v 18th in the German Bundesliga - relegation six pointer already?

Wolfsburg 100% stats

  • All 3 wins at home were single goal wins.
  • Not scored in both halves at home.
  • No home match with exactly 2 or exactly 4 goals.

Wolfsburg other stats

  • No draw in 9 home matches.
  • 1-0 win at home v 16th but not played bottom 2 at home.
  • 9 goals conceded last 1/2 hour of home matches.

Darmstadt 100% stats

  • All defeats away.
  • Not led at halftime away.
  • Not scored in both halves away.

Darmstadt other stats

  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • 4 consecutive 2-0 away defeats.
  • Failed to score last 5 aways.
  • 21 of 26 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • As we see Darmstadt earn all points at home. This logically suggests we are with the Wolf today.
  • Note the catastrophic conceding by Darmstadt 2nd half. If they keep a clean sheet to halftime, 1-0, 2-0 would be one of the correct scores I would consider.
  • Wolfsburg are poor. They only tend to score 1 goal max in home matches v 6th and lower.
  • This is not a match which greatly appeals. But what I would take from it is the premis that Darmstadt then to lose away and tend to concede heavily in the 2nd half.

14:30 - FC Koln v Hertha Berlin - 2.46 Koln

  • Caveat here regarding the odds. Can be tough to read matches with these odds.
  • Hertha are unbeaten in the last 6 head to heads.
  • This is 7th v 5th in the German Bundesliga.

FC Koln 100% stats

  • No wins v teams above them in the league.
  • No over 3.5 goals at home.

FC Koln other stats

  • Only 2 wins in 13 matches.
  • 2-1-3-3-2 conceded recently.

Hertha 100% stats

  • Not beaten a top 13 side away.

Hertha other stats

  • 5 consecutive away defeats but at home they are beating Dortmund and were beating Bayern until the 93rd minute!
  • Only 2 away clean sheets.

Conclusions

  • Form software trial conclusions - FC Koln have lost the first half in 7/8 home matches against top-six teams and they have conceded first in 6/8 such matches. There have been -2.5 goals in 8/13 Hertha Berlin away matches.
  • This is as tough as the odds suggest. We have a home side unable to beat a team above them in the league versus an away side unable to beat any top 13 side away but nearly doing the double at home v Dortmund and Bayern Munich!
  • If pushed I would hope Hertha Berlin would gain something away from their recent home performances.

14:30 - Hoffenheim v Leverkusen - 2.18 Hoff

  • 1-1 and 0-3 Hoff in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 4th v 10th in the German Bundesliga.

Hoffenheim 100% stats

  • No defeat at home.
  • Undefeated at halftime at home.
  • Wins v 5th-12th at home.
  • Not lost to nil.

Hoffenheim other stats

  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • In 6 of 7 home matches, Hoff scored 2+ goals.
  • Scored in their last 10 at home.
  • Failed to score in only 1 match at home.
  • 10 goals scored at home last 15 mins of matches.

Leverkusen 100% stats

  • No 0-0 away.
  • Not beaten a team above them in the league away from home.
  • Scored and conceded in those matches.

Leverkusen other stats

  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.

Conclusions

  • Form looks straightforward. Hoff should not lose today. Leverkusen may score and concede but not win. Only 4 clean sheets. Failing to score in only 4 matches makes for a natural both teams to score argument.
  • 2-1 looks an obvious scoreline IF the Hoff win. Remember the Hoff have failed to score in only one match so do expect a goal from them if they are slow starters today.

14:30 - Werder Bremen v RB Leipzig - 2.1 Leipzig

  • 3-1 Leipzig in the last head to head.
  • This is 15th v 2nd in the German Bundesliga.

Werder Bremen 100% stats

  • 1-2 defeats v top 3 at home.
  • Scored at conceded at home v top 8 teams.
  • No over 4.5 goals at home.
  • No 0-0.

Werder Bremen other stats

  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Not beaten a top 9 team at home.
  • 8 2-1 /1-2 scorelines at home.
  • 92% over 1.5 goals.

Leipzig 100% stats

  • No 0-0.

Leipzig other stats

  • Only 1 win in 5 away matches.
  • 15 consecutive matches without a 0-0 at halftime.
  • Conceded in their last 7 away matches.
  • 10 of 14 goals conceded away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Probability wise, backing 2-1 / 1-2 must have a chance here. Leipzig tend to concede away recently and Werder have had 8 2-1/1/2 scorelines.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

15:00 - Rangers v Hamilton - 1.36 Rangers

  • 3 Rangers win and a 1-1 in the last 4 head to heads.
  • This is 3rd v 11th in the Scottish Premier League.

Rangers 100% stats

  • Not lost to nil at home.
  • No match with exactly 4 goals.
  • Unbeaten at home v teams below them in the league.

Rangers other stats

  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 8 of their last 9 matches.
  • Scored in their last 10 home matches.
  • Failed to score only once at home.

Hamilton 100% stats

  • No away win.
  • Not scored 2 goals away v top 5.

Hamilton other stats

  • Failed to score in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Only 2 wins in 17 matches.
  • 6 consecutive away defeats.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in their last 5 away matches.

Conclusions

  • Hamilton are unlikely to score the 2nd goal so if scoring first, back Rangers.
  • Rangers may concede - look at their recent matches, they should reply too!
  • I expect a Rangers win today.
  • New form software conclusion: Rangers have won 5/6 home matches against bottom-six teams while Hamilton AC have lost by two or more goals in 5/10 trips to top half non-Big One teams. Hamilton Ac have lost 6/8 away matches against top half non-Big One teams.

15:00 - C Palace v Watford - 1.97 Palace

  • 1-2 Watford and 1-1 in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 17th v 13th in the English Premiership.

Palace 100% stats

  • No draw at home v top 11.
  • No 0-0.

Palace other stats

  • 1-0 and 0-2 wins. Big Sam's influence pervading Palace?
  • Only 4 clean sheets but 2 consecutive now.

Watford other stats

  • Scored and conceded in 5 of 6 matches.
  • 3-2-1-2-2-1-2 goals conceded away recently.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 8 away matches.
  • Only 1 loss v teams below them in the league.

Conclusions

  • This is a new Palace. Big Sam has them looking at keeping a clean sheet and nicking the win. It has worked now in 2 consecutive matches. Watford's leaky defence gives Palace hope.
  • Watford, though, are solid enough v teams below them in the league.
  • I would lay the late draw. Watford could score. I would lay them if they scored first given Palace look galvanised.
  • I am trialling some new form-tracking software and its conclusion for this match is "Asian handicap: Watford have lost by two or more goals in 9/16 away matches and they have lost 7/11 away matches. C Palace have drawn the first half in 6/9 home matches against middle-third teams."

15:00 - Sunderland v Burnley - 2.66 Sunderland

  • Burnley are unbeaten in the last 3 head to heads, 2 were in the FA Cup.
  • This is 20th v 12th in the Premiership.Sunderland are 2 wins from safety assuming the 3 teams above them lost their next 2 games! Burnley could go top 10 with a win.

Sunderland 100% stats

  • Not beaten any top 12 team.

Sunderland other stats

  • Failed to score in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Failed to score last 3 home matches.

Burnley 100% stats

  • No away win.
  • Not led at halftime away.

Burnley other stats

  • Scored and conceded last 5 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 7 away.
  • Opponents scored first in 11/14 away.

Conclusions

  • Burnley, I have argued when playing Hull and Swansea, have a chance of ending that dire away record and I argue the same today.
  • I could see a positive Burnley result, be it a 1-1 only.
  • I would lay Dunderland if they scored first. A strong both teams to score stat for Burnley. In fact, dare we lay the first goal scorer?

15:00 - Everton v Hull - 1.56 Everton

  • 2-0 Hull and 2-2 in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 7th v 18th in the English premiership.

Everton 100% stats

  • Unbeaten at home v 5th and lower.
  • Scored in all of those matches.
  • Not conceded in both halves at home.
  • No 0-0 at home.

Everton other stats

  • Only 1 loss in 11 matches was v Tottenham.
  • In 8 of those matches, Everton scored at least 2 goals.
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
  • 5 consecutive home wins.
  • 8 and 13 goals scored last 15 mins of first half and second half.

Hull City 100% stats

  • Not beaten a top 16 side away.
  • Not scored 2 goals in those away matches.
  • Not scored in both halves away.

Hull City other stats

  • 11 defeats in 12 aways.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • No win in 13 aways.

Conclusions

  • Hull, if scoring first, should be opposed today. Everton could even be backed if they continue to score 2 goals.
  • I do expect Everton to win today. Note their scoring record at the end of each half. If 30th min, lay the 0-0 halftime score if still 0-0.
  • It Everton are losing or have not scored 75th minute, expect them to score.

15:00 - Stoke v Chelsea - 1.62 Chelsea

  • 4-2 Chelsea in the last head to head.
  • This is 9th v 1st in the Premiership.

Stoke 100% stats

  • Not beaten a team above them in the league.
  • No match with exactly 3 goals.

Stoke City other stats

  • 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
  • No defeat in 8 at home.
  • 5 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches at home.
  • Lost to all top 2 conceding 4 goals.

Chelsea 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • Unbeaten outside of the top 5.

Chelsea other stats

  • Only 3 defeats.
  • Both teams scored last 5 matches.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • 20 of last 21 matches saw at least a goal before halftime.
  • 1-1, 1-1, 1-2 last 3 aways.

Conclusions

  • If Stoke continue their form v top 2, then they'll concede 4 goals but note Chelsea have had battles in recent away matches, conceding and equalising or scoring 2 goals.
  • Lay Stoke if Stoke score first. They tend not to score that 2nd goal v the top teams.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market while Chelsea are in that kind of mood!

15:00 - West Ham v Leicester - 2.38 West Ham

  • 2-2 and 1-0 Leicester in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 11th v 15th in the Premiership.

West Ham 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • Unbeaten at home v 14th and lower.

West Ham other stats

  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 12 of 15 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Leicester City 100% stats

  • No win away.
  • Not led at halftime away.

Leicester other stats

  • 2 consecutive 3-1 wins.
  • 2 goals at least seen before halftime in 5 of the last 6 matches.
  • 13 goals conceded last 15 mins of first half.

Conclusions

  • New manager for Leicester muddies the waters. 2 consecutive 3-1 wins and beating Sevilla in the Champions League. A note of caution then re the poor away form.
  • Both teams could score today. Note West Ham tend to score 2nd half.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market at the 30 min mark if still 0-0.
  • It would not surprise me to see Leicester end their poor away form under Mr. Shakespeare. West Ham, on form, do have their beating.

15:15 - Athletic Bilbao v Real Madrid - 1.71 Real Madrid

  • 3 consecutive Real Madrid wins in head to heads saw both teams score.
  • This is 7th v 1st in Spanish La Liga.

Ath Bilbao 100% stats

  • Unbeaten at home outside the top 2.
  • Lost 3 of the 4 matches played v top 2.

Ath Bilbao other stats

  • No defeat in 13 at home.
  • 4 consecutive home wins.
  • 4 0-1 defeats at halftime and note they only lost one match at home.
  • 17 of 25 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Real Madrid 100% stats

  • Scored in every match.
  • Beat 3rd to 10th inclusive away.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals.
  • No 1-0 or 0-1.

Real Madrid other stats

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 matches.
  • Scored and conceded lat 6 away matches.

Conclusions

  • Real Madrid do tend to get the best of Bilbao but concede in the process. That is an angle today. Bilbao, if scoring first, may not go on to win.
  • Expect at least 2 goals in total today.
  • Bilbao have excellent form, but have lost 3/3 v top 2. Any reason for this to change?

17:00 - Torino v Inter - 2.04 Inter

  • 1-2 Torino and 2-1 Inter in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 10th v 5th in Italian Seria A.

Torino 100% stats

  • Unbeaten v 2nd and lower at home.
  • Scored in all matches at home v teams above them in the league.
  • Not lost to nil at home.

Torino other stats

  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches so lends itself to both teams scoring.
  • 2-1-5-3 goals scored in recent home matches.
  • Scored in their last 11 matches at home.
  • At least one team has scored 2+ goals in all matches v top 5 teams.
  • 13 goals scored at home first 30 mins of matches.
  • 13 of 17 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Inter Milan 100% stats

  • Not beaten a top 11 side away.
  • No 0-0.

Inter Milan other stats

  • 11 wins in 13 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • 12 goals scored last 2 matches.
  • No draw in 15 matches.
  • 13 of 18 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Inter have only been beaten by Inter Milan and Roma of late but away from home cannot beat the top 11 teams?
  • This muddies the water. A side with 11 wins in 13 matches but no win away v top 11. Which Inter turns up today?
  • I can make a good argument for Torino based on their home form. I can make a bad argument for Inter's away form but a good argument based on 12 goals in 2 matches and 11 wins in 13 matches.
  • A match for in-play stats.
  • Other angles? Will one team score 2 goals at least?
  • Lay any late 0-0. Lay any late draw and hope Inter keep avoiding the draws.

17:30 - Bournemouth v Swansea - 2.3 Bournemouth

  • 2-2, 3-2 Bournemouth and 0-3 Bournemouth in the last 3 head to heads.
  • This is 14th v 16th and has the air of a relegation six-pointer to it.

Bournemouth other stats

  • In 14 of the last 16 matches at least one team scored 2+ goals.
  • In 8 of the last 9 home matches, they conceded at least 2 goals.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime in the last 19 matches.
  • Inconsistent home form. Can beat the likes of Liverpool and Everton but lose to Palace and Hull City.

Swansea 100% stats

  • No draw away v 8th and lower.
  • No away 0-0.

Swansea other stats

  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • No draw in 16 matches.
  • Conceded last 13 away.

Conclusions

  • Be careful. Form could be thrown out of the window in favour of necessity. The necessity for 3 points for these 2.
  • On form, I would note that Bournemouth cannot seem to keep a clean sheet, in fact 2 goals is the norm. Are Swansea strong enough? Well they have scored and conceded in a large number of recent matches.
  • Both teams to score would be a ready angle today.
  • Lay any late draw while the Swans continue to avoid the draw.
  • Form software trial conclusions - +3.5 goals: There have been +3.5 goals in 6/11 Bournemouth home matches and +2.5 goals in 10/11 Swansea away matches. Swansea have drawn the first half in 7/10 away matches against middle-third teams.

18:45 - PSV v Vitesse - 1.33 PSV

  • 5 consecutive PSV wins in head to heads.
  • This is 3rd v 6th in Dutch Eredivisie.

PSV 100% stats

  • Unbeaten v teams below them.
  • No opponent has led at halftime at home.

PSV other stats

  • 8 wins in 9 matches. Only league leaders have beaten them recently.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • 7 consecutive home wins.
  • Scored 2+ goals in each of their last 5 home matches.

Vitesse 100% stats

  • Lost away v top 5.
  • No 0-0.

Vitesse other stats

  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • Scored in their last 10 away.
  • Scored and conceded in 8 of 9 aways v top 13 sides.

Conclusions

  • PSV tend to win head to heads.
  • Both teams could score and Vitesse not win.
  • PSV have 2+ goals in them at home judging by recent performances.

19:45 - Betis v Osasuna - 1.5 Betis

  • 3-0 Betis and 1-2 Betis, the latter came in the Primera Division.
  • This is 14th v 20th in the league.

Betis 100% stats

  • All defeats at home came v top 9 teams.

Betis other stats

  • Scored and conceded in their last 6 matches.
  • Only 1 loss home and away v 11th and lower.

Osasuna 100% stats

  • Conceded in all away matches.
  • Not beaten any team 9th and lower and not beaten anyone 7th and higher.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals away.
  • No 1-0 or 0-1.

Osasuna other stats

  • Only 1 win.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • 3-3-3-3-4-5-1 goals conceded recently.
  • Conceded in their last 13 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 in halftime away.

Conclusions

  • On form, Betis are highly likely to win. An opposition with only 1 win all season plays a Betis side with only 1 defeat v teams 11th and lower.
  • Both teams could score and Osasuna not win.
  • I would lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

 19:45 - AC Milan v Genoa - 1.74 AC Milan

  • Genoa have won 3 of the last 4 head to heads.
  • This is 7th v 16th in Italian Seria A.

AC Milan 100% stats

  • All wins at home v 13th and lower.
  • All home wins by 1 or 2 goals.
  • All home defeats by a single goal.

AC Milan other stats

  • Failed to score in only 6 matches.
  • Only 1 defeat in 6 was v Juventus.
  • 7 wins and 2 0-1 defeats in 9 matches at home v teams below them.

Genoa 100% stats

  • Not led at halftime away.
  • Not beaten any top 13 team away.
  • Lost away v top 6 teams.
  • Conceded 2 or 3 goals v top 9 away.
  • Not scored in both halves away.

Genoa other stats

  • Only 1 win in 12 matches.
  • 10 of 12 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • AC Milan should end the head to head Genoa dominance today, based on season form.
  • Genoa are yet to beat a top 13 team away from home and tend to concede 2/3 goals.
  • That is what I will work on today. If Genoa score first, they are opposable.