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Welcome to the Weekend. See you at 14:30 for the German Bundesliga. Let's hope there are no April Fools today and the teams play to their form. I will write a small piece on how I use the DRT Bulletin with the Derby v QPR match as an example (from last night). That will be at the DRT facebook page.

12:00 - Villarreal v Eibar - 1.85 Villareal

  • 1-2 Villareal and 2-1 Eibar in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 5th v 8th in Spanish La Liga.

Villareal 100% stats

  • Not conceded in both halves.
  • No 1-0 or 0-1 at home.

Villareal other stats

  • 2-1-2-2 goals scored in recent home matches.
  • Only 3 defeats in 15 matches.
  • 6 wins and a loss at home v teams 4th - 13th inclusive.

Eibar 100% stats

  • Not beaten a top 12 side away.
  • No away 0-0.

Eibar other stats

  • Scored and conceded last 4 matches. 3 score draws.
  • Conceded 2+ in the 4 matches played away v teams 3rd to 9th.

Conclusions

  • Form favours Villareal today and they could, at their best, score 2 goals at least today. So let that be an angle if 0-0 or if Eibar are leading.

12:30 - Liverpool v Everton - 1.71 Liverpool

  • I will not research derby matches as it is a case of 'best on the day'. Instinctually, I think the Liverpool odds are far too short.

14:30 - Schalke v Dortmund - 2.02 Dortmund

  • 2-2 and 0-0 in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 9th v 3rd in the German Bundesliga.

Schalke 100% stats

  • No home 0-0.
  • Not beaten the top 4 yet.

Schalke other stats

  • Only 1 loss in 7.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches since 21st September.
  • Not conceded 2 goals in the last 11 home matches.
  • Only beaten one team above them in the league.

Dortmund 100% stats

  • No away 0-0.

Dortmund other stats

  • Only 2 defeats in their last 13 matches.
  • 2 2-1 defeats in their last 3 away matches though.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 9 of their last 10 away matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime in the last 13 matches.
  • Only 1 win v top 12 away.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late 0-0. These 2 are avoiding 0-0s this season.
  • This will be a toughie for Dortmund today given Schalke have a strong defence at home. The fact is Schalke have only beaten one team above them in the league.
  • 1-1 does appeal to me if that Schalke defence remains robust. It could also suggest we lay Dortmund if Dortmund score first.

14:30 - RB Leipzig v SV Darmstadt - 1.38 Leipzig

  • 0-2 Leipzig the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 2nd v bottom in the German Bundesliga. 2nd (Champions League!) is the goal for Leipzig.

Leipzig 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • 2 losses in 2 matches at home v bottom 4 teams.

Leipzig other stats

  • All 6 season defeats have come within the last 12 matches so the air of invincibility is now shattered.
  • 2 defeats in 3 home matches.
  • No draw in 10 at home.

Darmstadt 100% stats

  • 100% points earned at home.
  • All defeats naturally away.
  • Not led at halftime away.

Darmstadt other stats

  • 6 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Failed to score v top 8 away.
  • 21 of 27 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • On form Leipzig should win but they have been faltering of late, even losing at home v bottom 4 sides.
  • With Darmstadt having trouble even scoring we should not see Leipzig score first and win. So react if anything else.
  • Note that Darmstadt could keep it tight to halftime. Keep faith Leipzig eventually scoring.

14:30 - Freiburg v Werder Bremen - 2.3 Freiburg

  • 1-3 to Freiburg the last time these 2 met this season.
  • This is 8th v 13th in the German Bundesliga.

Freiburg 100% stats

  • No 0-0.

Freiburg other stats

  • Scored and conceded in 9 of their last 11 matches.
  • 2 consecutive 1-1 draws.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 11 matches.
  • Only 1 defeat at home v 4th and lower.

Werder Bremen 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.

Werder Bremen other stats

  • 4 wins and a draw last 5 matches.
  • 3 of those wins were without both teams scoring which is the standard usually for Werder Bremen.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored in their last 11 away matches.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Werder have worryingly been keeping clean sheets. Dare we hope for the both teams to score given Freiburg have scored and conceded in 9 of their last 11 matches.
  • Werder are highly likely to score so note that if 1-0 Freiburg or 0-0.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

14:30 - Bayern Munich v Augsburg - 1.12 Bayern

  • 3 consecutive 3-1 Bayern wins in head to heads may be a good starting point.
  • This is 1st v 14th in the German Bundesliga. Augsburg could conceivably go top 10 with a win but be in relegation trouble if losing!

Bayern 100% stats

  • No defeat at home or at halftime at home.
  • All wins home and away v teams outside the top 10.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals at home.
  • Not conceded in both halves at home.
  • No 0-0.

Bayern other stats

  • Only 1 defeat.
  • Failed to score only once and that was in the defeat.

Augsburg 100% stats

  • Not beaten a top 9 team home or away.
  • Scored and conceded in the matches played v top 3 sides.
  • No over 3.5 goals matches away.

Augsburg other stats

  • Only 6 clean sheets.
  • Tend to concede 3 goals max if losing heavily this season.

Conclusions

  • Both teams to score in a Bayern win is a possible here. Note that Augsburg don't tend to get spanked in defeat. 1.12 odds does suggest 3/4 goals minimum. Bayern do tend towards 3 goals v Augsburg so that is a good start.
  • I hope Augsburg score first as we can then back Bayern or choose a correct score to eek some more value from the match.

14:30 - Hamburg v FC Koln - 2.38 Hamburg

  • 3 Koln wins and a draw in the last 4 head to heads.
  • This is 16th v 6th in the German Bundesliga.

Hamburg 100% stats

  • No 0-0 at home.
  • All home wins by 1 goal.

Hamburg other stats

  • Only 1 loss in 7 matches was v Bayern Munich.
  • 5 wins and a draw in their last 6 home matches.
  • No defeat in 7 at home.
  • Only led one match at halftime.
  • Only 1 win in 6 matches at home v top 8 teams.

Koln 100% stats

  • No away 0-0.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 9th and lower.
  • Not won to nil away.

Koln other stats

  • 2-1-3-3-2-2 conceded in recent matches.
  • Only 3 wins in 14 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 4 away matches.

Conclusions

  • FC Koln should not lose today - they have conceded heavily of late but meet opposition in the part of the league where they are unbeaten.
  • Hamburg have been excellent at home lately but this is a slight step up. They have only 1 win at home v top 8 teams. So I will lay Hamburg if Hamburg score first.

15:00 - Newcastle v Wigan - 1.41 Newcastle

  • 0-2 to Newcastle earlier this season.
  • This is 1st v 23rd. Unlike Rotherham, Wigan still have a chance of staving off relegation. 5 teams within 7 points of each other.

Newcastle 100% stats

  • No home 0-0.
  • Wins to nil v bottom 2 so far this season.

Newcastle other stats

  • Only 1 loss in 13 matches.
  • Scored in their last 7 home matches.
  • In 5 of 6 matches at home v teams 17th and lower, Newcastle scored at least 2 goals.
  • In fact we can expand on that. v 12th and lower, Newcastle have scored 2+ goals in 9 of 11 matches.

Wigan 100% stats

  • Lost to the top 2 at home without scoring.
  • Scored and conceded away in matches v top 8 teams and actually beat 3rd.
  • All defeats away were by 1 goal.

Wigan other stats

  • Failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • Only 1 win home and away v top 12 sides.

Conclusions

  • Wigan did beat Huddersfield away but that does seem an anomoly as the only win home and away v top 12 sides.
  • Expectation is for a possible Newcastle win to nil today and therefore no real trading angle unless Wigan score first (must be opposed).
  • Newcastle could score 2 goals today at least as they tend to do v bottom 3rd sides at home.

15:00 - Hull v West Ham - 2.52 Hull

  • West Ham are unbeaten in the last 4 head to heads.
  • This is 18th v 12th in the English Premiership.

Hull 100% stats

  • No home 0-0.
  • Unbeaten at home v 10th and lower.
  • Scored and conceded in those matches.

Hull other stats

  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Unbeaten in 4 at home.
  • 17 of 23 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
  • 14 of 19 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

West Ham 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 16th and lower.
  • All wins v 16th and lower away.

West Ham other stats

  • Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 matches.
  • Only 6 clean sheet and failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 8 of their last 9 away matches.
  • 8 consecutive matches without a 0-0 at halftime.
  • Conceded last 10 away.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • If 0-0 halftime expect 2nd half goals. A VERY strong 2nd half bias from Hull.
  • Both teams could score today.
  • I can argue for either side today given the form.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

15:00 - Leicester v Stoke - 2.08 Leicester

  • The new manager, Mr. Shakespeare, doth got Leicester playing some lovelieth stuffeth forsooth.
  • 2-2 the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 15th v 9th in the Premiership. A 6 point cushion for Leicester from the relegation places. I am sure they would want to reap more points while in solid form.

Leicester 100% stats

  • Unbeaten at home v 10th and lower.

Leicester other stats

  • 3 goals scored in each of 3 consecutive wins (conceding as well though).
  • 5 clean sheets.
  • 2 consecutive 3-1 home wins.
  • 71% over 2.5 goals at home.

Stoke 100% stats

  • All wins home and away have come v 13th and lower.

Stoke other stats

  • Failed to score in their last 3 aways.

Conclusions

  • Once more unto the Breach for Mr Shakespeare and his Leicester lascivious wassails. I would have to favour this Leicester side under the Great Bard in their current form against a Stoke side who, admittedly, tend to win v the bottom half teams.
  • I think both teams could score and Leicester outscore Stoke today. On that basis I would lay Stoke if Stoke scored first.

15:00 - Man Utd v West Brom - 1.36 Man Utd

  • 0-1 West Brom, 2-0 Man Utd, 1-0 West Brom, 0-2 Man Utd in recent head to heads.
  • This is 5th and 8th in the English Premiership.

Man Utd 100% stats

  • Not lost at home v 4th and lower.
  • Not conceded in both halves at home.
  • Not lost to nil at home.

Man Utd other stats

  • 3 draws in their last 4 at home.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • No defeat in 18 and in 12 at home.
  • 6 draws in 9 home matches v top 13 sides.

West Brom 100% stats

  • All defeats away v teams above them.
  • No away 0-0.

West Brom other stats

  • 2 defeats in 3 matches and then a 3-1 win v Arsenal. It did seem fleetingly that West Brom downed tools once 40 points was reached.
  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 13 away matches.

Conclusions

  • Man Utd should not be losing today if West Brom continue their losing run v teams above them away from home.
  • This really is a must win for Man Utd with Arsenal and Man City playing each other this weekend. A score draw is the concern. I would definitely lay West Brom if West brom scored first.

15:00 - Chelsea v Crystal Palace - 1.31 Chelsea

  • A London derby.
  • 1-2 Palace in the last head to head at Chelsea. Hmmm!
  • This is 1st v 16th in the Premiership.

Chelsea 100% stats

  • No home draws.
  • All wins at home v 5th and lower.
  • 2/3 goals scored at home v 11th and lower.
  • Not conceded in both halves at home.
  • No 0-0.

Chelsea other stats

  • Scored and conceded last 6 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • 2 consecutive 3-1 home wins.
  • No 0-0 at halftime in their last 13 matches.
  • 10 consecutive home wins.
  • Scored 2 + goals in their last 5 home matches.
  • 85% over 2.5 goals at home.

Palace 100% stats

  • All defeats v top 6.
  • No 0-0.

Palace other stats

  • 3 consecutive wins to nil.
  • No draw in 10 matches.
  • 18 of 21 goals scored away came 2nd half.
  • 17 of 26 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late draw and hope Chelsea continue to avoid draws.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. I would delay though given Palace are a little more robust defensively.
  • 0-1 would be a Palace win scoreline but it should not occur. Chelsea are scoring 2+ goals at home with regularity so back Chelsea if Palace score first.

15:00 - Watford v Sunderland - 1.93 Watford

  • 1-0 Sunderland in the last head to head.
  • This is 14th v 20th in the Premiership. Sunderland are 7 points from safety.

Watford 100% stats

  • Unbeaten at home v 11th and lower.

Watford other stats

  • 3 losses in 4 matches.
  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 home matches.

Sunderland 100% stats

  • No 0-0 away.

Sunderland other stats

  • Failed to score in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • No draw in 11 away.
  • Opponents scored first in 11/13 away.

Conclusions

  • I will bow out of this one. A match where both teams will be looking at the win given the need for points.
  • On form, Watford at home are unbeaten v teams 11th and lower and that would give them advantage. Sunderland's troubles scoring are ensuring relegation at the moment.

15:00 - Burnley v Tottenham - 1.69 Tottenham

  • 2-1 Tottenham earlier this season.
  • This is 13th v 2nd in the Premiership.
  • A conceivable top 10 spot for Burnley with a win (other results pending).
  • Tottenham are the only challengers to Chelsea but will need the blues to slip up consistently.

Burnley 100% stats

  • Unbeaten at halftime at home.
  • Won all home matches v teams 7th-16th inclusive.
  • No home 0-0.

Burnley other stats

  • No win in 6 matches.
  • 1-4-1-1-1 scored in recent home matches. Those single goals enough to ensure 3 wins and a 1-1 draw with Chelsea.
  • Scored in their last 9 home matches.
  • Not beaten a top 3 team home or away.
  • 9 of 12 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Tottenham 100% stats

  • Unbeaten home and away outside of the top 5.

Tottenham other stats

  • Only 3 defeats all came away.
  • 2 draws and a loss last 3 aways, failing to score in their last 2 away matches.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.

Conclusions

  • Burnley have been getting away with it, scoring only 1 goal at home but getting a result. One goal may not be enough today. Tottenham should end their 2 match scoreless sequence away.
  • 1-1 seems best case Burnley today. 1-1 or 1-2 look obvious starting points for me with a nod towards Tottenham not losing, as I say.
  • Do note Burnley, if not conceding first half, are more likely to concede 2nd half. Factor that in.

15:00 - Rotherham v Fulham - 1.43 Fulham

  • Both teams have scored in the last 5 head to heads with Fulham unbeaten and winning 3 consecutive head to heads.
  • This is 24th v 7th in the English Championship. Rotherham are relegated.

Rotherham 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • All defeats v top 7 so far.

Rotherham other stats

  • 11 defeats and a 1-1 in their last 12 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 18 matches.
  • 20 defeats in 21 matches home and away v top 13 sides.
  • 17 goals conceded at home last 30 mins of matches.

Fulham 100% stats

  • Unbeaten home and away v 20th and lower.
  • Clean sheets away v bottom 4.

Fulham other stats

  • Scored and conceded in 8 of their last 9 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 6 matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime in their last 9 matches.
  • 14 away matches were 0-0 or 0-1 at halftime.
  • 3 of 4 away defeats were 1-0.

Conclusions

  • Rotherham are relegated. Let's face it. Fulham are 7th and you can bet that they will be going for a play-off place.
  • Expect Fulham to score. They could even win and keep a clean sheet.
  • Rotherham are late conceders of goals so note that if the match is not running to plan for Fulham.
  • We could see a 0-0 or 0-1 at halftime.
  • Back Fulham if Rotherham score first.

15:00 - Brighton v Blackburn - 1.61 Brighton

  • 2-3 Brighton in the last head to head.
  • This is 2nd v 22nd in the English Championship. Brighton could go top with a win, albeit Newcastle have a winnable home match.

Brighton 100% stats

  • All wins home and away v bottom 4 sides.
  • No 0-0 at home.

Brighton other stats

  • 3 defeats in their last 5 matches. Pressure telling?
  • Only recent home loss was v Newcastle.
  • Scored in their last 16 home matches.
  • Only 2 home defeats.
  • 3+ goals scored at home v bottom 5 sides.

Blackburn 100% stats

  • Beat Newcastle 1-0 home and away but the only wins in 14 matches home and away v top 9 teams.
  • No away 0-0.

Blackburn other stats

  • 4 consecutive score draws, 3 consecutive 2-2's.
  • Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 away matches.
  • Only 6 clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded in 11 of 13 matches away v top 17 teams.
  • 15 of 19 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Brighton are good v the bottom 4 sides with all wins to date.
  • Both teams could score today, Brighton on a 16 match scoring run, Blackburn on a 15 match scoring run.
  • Blackburn must be opposed if leading (hopefully 0-2!) Score draws relay as much.

15:15 - Osasuna v Athletic Bilbao - 1.62 Ath

  • 1-1 when these 2 met earlier this season.
  • This is 20th v 7th in Spanish La Liga.

Osasuna 100% stats

  • No home win.
  • All defeats v top 6.

Osasuna other stats

  • Only 1 win.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Conceded last 24 matches.
  • 18 goals conceded last 1/2 hour of home matches.

Ath Bilbao 100% stats

  • Scored and conceded in all matches v bottom 3.

Ath Bilbao other stats

  • Only 1 win in their last 10 away matches.

Conclusions

  • Ath Bilbao are poor away from home so note that for this odds on side. The fact remains Osasuna have not had a home win and are relegated.
  • Both teams could score today and I would like Osasuna to score first so we can trade by laying them.

16:00 - Marseille v Dijon - 1.45 Marseille

  • 1-2 Marseille in the last head to head.
  • This is 5th v 17th in French Ligue 1.

Marseille 100% stats

  • All wins at home v 13th and lower.
  • Unbeaten at home v 4th and lower.
  • Not conceded 2 goals at home v teams 4th and lower.
  • Not lost to nil at home.

Marseille other stats

  • No draw in 9 home matches, scoring in all of those 9 matches.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home is nearly half of matches.
  • 11 clean sheets in 13 matches at home v 4th and lower.

Dijon 100% stats

  • Not beaten a top 19 team away.
  • Conceded 2-4 goals away v top 6 teams.
  • Not won to nil away.

Dijon other stats

  • 6 defeats, a win and a draw in their last 8 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 9 away matches.
  • Scored 2 goals away v 4th and 6th without winning.
  • 21 of 30 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Marseille should not lose here today. Note that Dijon have scored 2 goals in 2 matches v teams either side of Marseille so let's hope Dijon get off to a flyer and take a 0-2 lead. I'd be laying them!
  • Marseille though are really tough cookies to even score against at home.
  • So I am with marseille in this match and hope Dijon score and score first for then I will gladly lay Dijon. We may see no action as Marseille are so solid defensively.

17:00 - Sassuolo v Lazio - 1.81 Lazio

  • 0-2 Sassuolo and 2-1 Lazio in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 15th v 4th in Italian Seria A.

Sassuolo 100% stats

  • Not beaten a top 11 side home or away.

Sassuolo other stats

  • 3 defeats in their last 4 matches, 2 were 1-0 only.
  • 2 consecutive away 0-1 defeats.
  • Only one home 0-0.
  • Failed to score in 5 of 6 home matches v top 10 teams.

Lazio 100% stats

  • All wins home and away v 15th and lower.

Lazio other stats

  • 5 wins and 2 draws last 7 matches.

Conclusions

  • Lazio like meeting bottom 3 sides and there is nothing in Sassuolos form which suggests the home side will win today. Heck, they have problems even scoring.
  • Enter this match in the expectation of Lazio not losing, score draw best case for Sassuolo and oppose any Sass lead.
  • Lay any late 0-0.

17:30 - Sociedad v Leganes - 1.76 Sociedad

  • 0-2 Sociedad in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 6th v 17th in Spanish La Liga.

Sociedad 100% stats

  • Unbeaten v bottom 4 home and away albeit not played teams 15th-19th inclusive at home.
  • Scored in all matches v 13th and lower.
  • No 0-0.

Sociedad other stats

  • 2 consecutive defeats.
  • All home defeats v top 7 teams.

Leganes 100% stats

  • No away 0-0.
  • Not led at halftime away.
  • Not beaten a top 10 side home or away.

Leganes other stats

  • Only 6 wins all season but 2 wins, 2 draws and a loss in their last 5 matches.
  • No win in 10 away matches.
  • Conceded in those 10 away matches.
  • Only 1 win v top 15 teams home and away.
  • 8 of 10 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • On probability only, Leganes are unlikely to win. Sociedad are highly likely to score as they do at home v 13th and lower.
  • Sociedad only lost at home v top 7 sides so we must oppose Leganes if Leganes score first.
  • Sociedad are the most likeliest halftime leaders if the match is not 0-0 at halftime.

17:30 - Southampton v Bournemouth - 1.68 Southampton

  • 1-3 the last time these 2 met is in line with expectations from a Bournemouth match!
  • This is 11th v 10th in the Premiership.

Southampton other stats

  • 10 over 2.5 goals matches in their last 11.
  • No draw in 11 matches and 6 at home.
  • Unbeaten at home v 13th and lower.

Bournemouth 100% stats

  • No 0-0 away.

Bournemouth other stats

  • 2 consecutive wins came at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime in 19 matches.
  • Only 2 away wins.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Lay any late draw.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Apart from that I am not sure why Southampton are such a short price. We shall see if the market has it right.

17:30 - Eintracht Frankfurt v Mgladbach - 2.66 Eintracht

  • Mgladbach scored 8 goals in 2 head to head wins prior to a 0-0 last match.
  • This is 7th v 10th in the German Bundesliga.

Frankfurt other stats

  • Failed to score in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Only lost one match at halftime at home.
  • Only 2 home defeats.

Mgladbach 100% stats

  • Not beaten a top 9 side away.
  • Not scored in both halves away.

Mgladbach other stats

  • No draw in 8 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 7 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 away.

Conclusions

  • Frankfurt's only 2 defeats at home this season have come within their last 6 matches. Bad luck or a decline for a Frankfurt failing to score in 5 of those 6 matches.
  • Mgladbach have not beaten any side higher than them in the league.
  • Not for me.
  • I would lay the late 0-0.

18:45 - Sparta Rotterdam v PSV - 1.38 PSV

  • 1-0 to PSV in the recent league head to head. Sparta won the cup encounter at home 3-1 this year.
  • This is 13th v 3rd in the Dutch Eredivisie.

Sparta 100% stats

  • No 0-0.

Sparta other stats

  • 3 wins in 4 matches.
  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • Beat Feyenoord 1-0 at home recently. True form or an anomoly?
  • The win v Feyenoord was the only win in 12 matches v top 7 teams.
  • Failed to score only once at home.

PSV 100% stats

  • Only lost to Feyenoord this season.
  • Not lost to nil away.

PSV other stats

  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 away matches.
  • 9 goals scored away last 15 mins of matches.

Conclusions

  • At their best PSV could score 3+ goals today as they have away v bottom 3rd teams.
  • Sparta beat Feyenoord 1-0 recently at home. That does look anomolous as that is the only win in 12 matches v top 7 teams.
  • Sparta may score and I would oppose them if they did.

19:45 - Roma v Empoli - 1.2 Roma

  • 2 3-1 Roma wins ended with a 0-0 last match.
  • This is 2nd v 17th in Italian Seria A.

Roma 100% stats

  • No home draws.
  • All home wins v 5th and lower.
  • Scored in all home matches.

Roma other stats

  • 14 wins and 4 losses in 18 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • In 12 of their last 13 matches, Roma have seen at least a goal before halftime.
  • No draw in 18 matches.
  • 3 or 4 goals scored at home in 10 of 11 matches v 8th and lower.

Empoli 100% stats

  • All defeats away v top 6 teams conceding 2 goals in each.
  • No win home or away v top 11 teams.
  • No 1-0 or 0-1 away.

Empoli other stats

  • 7 defeats and a draw in their last 8 matches.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • Conceded 2 goals at least in their last 6 matches.
  • Scored only 1 goal away v teams above them in the league.

Conclusions

  • Empoli have trouble even scoring an away goal which leaves us rather unimaginatively expecting a Roma win, scoring 2-4 goals.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Lay any late draw.
  • Empoli have not had an away 0-1 so back Roma if Empoli score first.

19:45 - Malaga v Atletico Madrid - 1.77 Atl

  • Malaga are unbeaten in the last 2 home head to heads from 2015.
  • This is 15th v 4th in Spanish La Liga.

Malaga 100% stats

  • No home 0-0.
  • Not played the top 4 at home yet.
  • In the matches played home and away v top 6, not won yet.

Malaga other stats

  • Only 1 win in 14 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • No home draw v top 18 sides.

Atl Madrid 100% stats

  • Unbeaten v 7th and lower.
  • Not conceded more than 1 goal in an away match v teams 8th and lower.

Atl Madrid other stats

  • Only Barcelona have beaten them in the last 13 matches.
  • No defeat in 6 away.
  • 9 0-0's at halftime away.
  • 17 of 20 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Malaga are yet to meet top 4 at home so nothing to strongly gauge them this season at home v best. But v top 6 home and away, Malaga are yet to win.
  • Atl Madrid are expected not to lose today. Rock solid away v 8th and lower. If Malaga score first, lay them or back Atl Madrid. Madrid rarely concede 2.
  • Note the very strong 2nd half scoring bias for Atl Madrid. So fear not if they lose or have not scored by halftime.