Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

15:00 - JJK v Lahti - 1.94 Lahti

  • 1-1 the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 12th v 4th in the Finnish Veikkausliiga.

JJK

  • Only 1 win.
  • 3 consecutive defeats.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Not won to nil.
  • 13 of 15 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Lahti

  • 5 clean sheets in their last 7 matches.
  • 4 0-0's in their last 6 matches.
  • Only 3 over 2.5 goals matches.
  • 6 of 7 goals scored away came 2nd half.
  • Only 1 win v teams below them, only 1 draw too away so drawitis.

Conclusions

  • JJK must be opposed if scoring first. Only 1 win all season.
  • This may be a 0-0 at halftime. Back 0-0 pre match. If JJK concede it tends to come 2nd half, ditto Lahti goals away.
  • JJK have not won to nil which further emphasises opposing any JJK lead to nil.
  • This may be a goal drought match. Only 3 over 2.5 goals matches for the away side -back 0-0 pre match?

15:00 - Ilves v KuPS - 2.22 Ilves

  • 0-1 Ilves the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 6th v 5th in the Finnish Veikkausliiga.

Ilves

  • Only 2 draws.
  • Only 4 over 2.5 goals matches.
  • 3 1-0 scorelines last 4 matches.
  • 3 clean sheets last 4 matches.
  • No 0-0 at home.

KuPS

  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Unbeaten in 6 away.
  • Scored and conceded away v 2nd, 4th, 7th and 8th.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late draw given Ilves tend to avoid them.
  • KuPS tend to score and concede away so note that today, despite Ilves having 3 1-0 scorelines in 4.
  • No real congruity between these 2.

15:00 - Malmo FF v AFC Utd - 1.2 Malmo

  • No recent head to heads tells us AFC Utd are newly promoted.
  • This is 1st v 16th in the Swedish Allsvenskan.

Malmo

  • Only 1 loss came last home match.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches. 5 2-1 scorelines in those 7 matches.
  • All wins at home bar a loss v 2nd.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals at home.
  • No team has scored in the first 30 mins of home matches.

AFC United

  • No win.
  • 7 losses and a 0-0 last 8 matches.
  • Scored in their last 4 defeats.
  • Not met top 5 away yet.
  • No away 0-0.
  • 12 of 15 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Malmo may have to wait today. So if 0-0 at halftime maintain the faith that Malmo will score. AFC concede but predominantly 2nd half. That said, they are yet to meet top 5 away.
  • If AFC score first, they must be layed as a team without a win all season.

15:00 - Sundsvall v Sirius - 2.6 Sirius

  • 1-2 Sirius in the last head to head.
  • This is 13th v 5th in the Swedish Allsvenskan.
  • The market cannot split these 2 teams.

Sundsvall

  • Only 2 wins.
  • 3 consecutive defeats.
  • Not met the top 7 at home so nothing to gauge performance against a top 5 side.
  • Only beaten bottom side at home.
  • Not won to nil at home.
  • 6 of 8 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Sirius

  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • Only 2 away defeats, one came last away matches.
  • Not led at halftime away.
  • Not met 11th and lower away this season.

Conclusions

  • A match I would rather leave alone. Sundsvall are yet to meet the top 7 at home. Sirius are yet to meet 11th and lower away.

17:00 - Halmstads v Elfsborg - 2.2 Elfsborg

  • Last 2 head to heads were friendlies.
  • This is 15th v 8th in the Swedish Allsvenskan.

Halmstads

  • Only 1 win came first match of the season.
  • 4 losses and a draw last 5 at home.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • All defeats bar a single win home and away v top 9 teams.
  • Never scored more than the 1 goal in a match at home.

Elfsborg

  • 3 wins in 4 matches.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • Only the 1 away win though despite only 2 away defeats.
  • Scored and conceded in 4 of 5 aways.
  • Unbeaten home and away v teams below them in the league.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals.
  • No 0-0.

Conclusions

  • I cannot see Halmstads win today.
  • Expect 2 goals at least in this match. Worse case draw for Elfsborg today I feel.
  • If Halmstads score first, Elfsborg are highly likely to score the next goal.

17:00 - Lillestrom v Stromsgodset - 2.08 Lillestrom

  • Stromgodset tends to win at home in these head to heads.
  • This is 11th v 14th in the Norwegian Eliteserien.

Lillestrom

  • 3 wins in their last 4 matches. Lost their last match.
  • 2 consecutive home wins.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • No draw in 7 at home.
  • No 0-0.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 9th and lower.
  • 7 of 8 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • Opponents tend to score first at home.

Stromgodset

  • Only 3 wins.
  • Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 9 matches.
  • No win away.
  • No 0-0.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late 0-0. No 0-0 for either side.
  • Lillestrom are likely to concede so that is a ready angle.
  • In fact both teams have poor clean sheet stats so both teams to score?
  • 2-1/1-2 possibles in this case.

19:15 - Sogndal v Aalesunds - 2.64 Aalesunds

  • 2-4 Aalesunds the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 12th v 4th in the Norwegian Eliteserien.

Sogndal

  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • 4-2-3-0 scored last 4 at home. Have goals in them.
  • Only 2 defeats in 8 matches were v the top 2.
  • Have lost conceding at least 3 goals v top 3 sides.
  • No opponent has led at halftime at home.

Aalesunds

  • Unbeaten in 6 away.
  • 2 consecutive 1-1 draws away.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • 9 consecutive matches without a 0-0 at halftime.
  • Scored and conceded away v 10th, 13th, 14th and 16th.

Conclusions

  • Despite this being 12th v 4th, the market cannot split the teams.
  • Sogndal is more likely to concede. They have conceded 3 goals v top 3 sides and have kept only 3 clean sheets.
  • I would lay Sogndal if Sogndal score first.
  • I would speculatively back 2-2 given Sogndal's scoring of late at home (and conceding of those 3 v top 3).
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

TENNIS

Eastbourne

Pliskova v Wozniacki - 1.67 Pliskova

  • A good advert I suppose for being able to watch the match. Wozza yesterday was clearly in some abdominal discomfort. Will she be 100% today?
  • 3rd v 11th and these 2 have met in quarter finals or better last 4 head to heads with Wozza winning 3 of them.
  • I cannot be too confident in any analysis given the cloud of a potential Wozza injury.
  • These 2 tend to have 3 setters. There was one 2 setter in a Final which went Pliskova's way.
  • Lay Wozza if Wozza wins the first set?

Novak Djokovic v Gael Monfils - 1.22 Novak

  • A question mark still hangs over Novak Djokovic and his fire for the game. He was very good v Medvedev, albeit he was expected to win.
  • 2nd v 17th.
  • It is 13-1 Novak in head to heads.
  • There has not been a grass head to head. It has been largely hard court.
  • Monfils impressed in beating the fighter Gasquet who showed his credentials this tournament. 2 tie breakers though suggests he is not breaking service games.
  • With Novak winning 6-2, 6-3, 6-3, 6-3 in the first set of the last 4 head  to heads, we may see a Novak first set win and therein lay a potential angle. Laying Novak after winning first set. It worked v Donald Young.
  • Monfils is 10-5 win loss in best of 3 setters on grass. This is his best performance to date on grass, to reach a Final.
  • 238th, 41st and 23rd the rankings he has beaten. He has not met a top 20 player. That said, Novak beat 112th, 44th and 63rd. So neither player has met top 20 opposition.
  • Monfils has to overcome this 13-1 head to head dominance. I will enter this match expecting Novak to win the first set. There we will see, probably, 1.12 odds which makes Novak layable.

Wimbledon

Grigor Dimitrov v Diego Schwartzman - 1.09 Dimitrov

  • 12th v 34th.
  • 1-1 head to heads from 2016 in a final and quarter final.2 3 setters in a first to 2 set affair. This immediately suggests in this potential 5 setter than 1.1 is a tad short for Dimi at the off.
  • It could be a Yazz trade - 'the only way is up'.
  • Diego has not had the best of preparations with a single match on grass.
  • Grigor lost to Lopez in the semi finals at Queens and that is no disgrace. 3 consecutive 3 setters (in best of 3).
  • This looks to be the only singles match in a Saturday of doubles.