Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

Bayern Munich was the big winner yesterday. I advised laying Freiburg in the halftime market if they led first half. Bayern equalised by halftime. Lewandowski - he da man - scored a 90th minute winner if you kept the faith.
See you at 14:30 today for a live chat. The German Bundesliga returns from a prolonged Christmas Break so we must retain faith that the pre-Christmas form is retained today.

12:00 - Espanyol v Granada - 1.64 Espanyol

  • Granada find themselves 2nd bottom of Spanish La Liga.

Espanyol 100% stats

  • 2 home defeats came by 2 goals.
  • No home match with 1 goal total.

Espanyol other stats

  • No defeat in 6 at home.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 matches.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 2 2-1 wins home and away v bottom 3 sides.
  • 10 of 11 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Granada 100% stats

  • No away wins.
  • No away 0-0.
  • Not scored in both halves away.

Granada other stats

  • All defeats away to top 12 sides with Espanyol in 11th.
  • Scored and conceded without winning away v 8th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Granada it seems can score away from home but not win so note that in case they score first today.
  • Note Espanyol's amazing 2nd half scoring record at home. It suggests goals 2nd half if there are none by halftime.
  • Another 2-1 scoreline for Espanyol? It is a habit v bottom sides.

12:30 - Liverpool v Swansea - 1.23 Liverpool

Liverpool 100% stats

  • Not lost to nil at home.
  • Not conceded in both halves at home.

Liverpool other stats

  • 2 consecutive score draws could scupper the title bid.
  • Failed to score only 3 times.
  • No defeat in 9 at home.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 2+ goals scored at home v 8th and lower in the league. Swansea are bottom of the League.
  • Both teams have scored in 2/3rd of matches.
  • Scored first in 7/9 home matches.
  • Led at halftime in 6/9 home matches.

Swansea 100% stats

  • No away 0-0.

Swansea other stats

  • Only 4 wins.
  • Only 5 under 2.5 goals matches.
  • Conceded in their last 9 away matches.
  • Have conceded at least 2 goals home and away v top 6 teams.
  • 5-3-1-3-3 goals conceded v top 9 goals away.

Conclusions

  • I expect Liverpool to score 2 goals (Swansea's away record suggests 3 or more goals) today and win with relative ease.
  • I would lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. You might want to back Liverpool to be winning at halftime.
  • Back Liverpool if Swansea score first.

14:30 - Augsburg v Hoffenheim - 2.72 Hoffenheim

  • The return of the German Bundesliga after a long Winter Break. We must simply have faith that the teams are not ring rusty and maintain the pre-Christmas form.

Augsburg 100% stats

  • 2 home wins were by 1 goal.
  • Not led at halftime at home.
  • No over 4.5 goals matches at home.
  • Not scored in both halves.
  • No home match with exactly 3 and 5 goals.

Augsburg other stats

  • Only 4 wins, 2 of which were only 1-0.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • No win v any team above them (they are 12th, Hoff are 5th).
  • 5 of 6 home goals were scored 2nd half.

Hoffenheim 100% stats

  • Unbeaten.
  • Not conceded in both halves away.
  • No 1-0 or 0-1 away.
  • 6 of 8 away goals conceded came 1st half.

Hoffenheim other stats

  • 6 draws in their last 7 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 7 of 8 matches home and away v 10th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Reminder this is a post Christmas break match. On form, both teams could score today with Hoffenheim continuing not to lose.
  • Hoffenheim could lead at halftime stats wise so if 0-0 for a while first half, take action a) lay 0-0 in the halftime score market or b) back Hoffenheim.
  • Lay Augsburg if they score first.

14:30 - Werder Bremen v Dortmund - 1.58 Dortmund

  • Again, reminders that this is the first post Winter Break match for these 2.
  • Dortmund could go as high as 3rd in the German Bundesliga with a win.

Werder Bremen 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • Scored and conceded in every home match.
  • All  wins were by a single goal.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals at home.
  • No over 4.5 goals matches at home.

Werder Bremen other stats

  • Only 1 clean sheet and failed to score only once.
  • 2 consecutive 1-1 draws.
  • Unbeaten in 5 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 88% over 2.5 goals at home.

Dortmund 100% stats

  • No away 0-0.
  • No away clean sheets.

Dortmund other stats

  • Scored and conceded in 8 of their last 10 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • 3 consecutive score draws.
  • 3-6 goals scored home and away against bottom 6 teams and conceded in the away matches.

Conclusions

  • Stats suggest that Dortmund could concede first. I hope so as Dortmund could score 3+ goals in return.
  • Both teams tend to score in Werder matches and we tend to see a goal at least before halftime so lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • With both sides having score draw sequences I would consider laying any late score draw in the hope it ends.

14:30 - SV Darmstadt v Mgladbach - 1.97 Mgladbach

  • Darmstadt are bottom of the German Bundesliga.

Darmstadt 100% stats

  • 100% of points earned at home.
  • No 0-0.
  • No over 4.5 goals matches at home.
  • No home matches with 3 goals exactly.

Darmstadt other stats

  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Failed to score in their last 4 matches prior to the Christmas Break.
  • Failed to score in their last 4 home matches.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 3-1 win at home v 13th and 2-2 v 15th. Play 14th today! A team they can get a result against?
  • The vast majority of goals scored and conceded at home came 2nd half.

Mgladbach 100% stats

  • No 0-0 away.
  • No away win.
  • Not scored in both halves away.

Mgladbach other stats

  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • 5 consecutive away defeats.
  • Conceded in their last 7 away matches.
  • Not played the bottom 6 away.
  • Only 3 goals scored away and 18 conceded.

Conclusions

  • Some element of the unknown as Mgladbach have not played the bottom 6 away from home. Both sides are really poor.
  • There is a hint that Darmstadt could get something today from this match.
  • If 0-0 at halftime, I think we could see 2nd half goals so that would be the main angle.

15:00 - Bournemouth v Watford - 1.86 Bournemouth

Bournemouth 100% stats

  • Not lost to nil at home.
  • No 1-0 or 0-1 at home.

Bournemouth other stats

  • 8 of the last 9 matches have seen at least one team score 3 goals +
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • Only 3 0-0's at halftime all season.
  • 2-2 with Watford earlier this season.

Watford 100% stats

  • No away match with total goals of 3 or more.

Watford other stats

  • Only 1 win in 9 matches was a 3-2 win.
  • Only 1 clean sheet in 11 matches.
  • 5 consecutive away defeats.
  • All defeats away v top 10 and Bournemouth are 11th.
  • Conceded at least 2 goals away v top 12 teams.

Conclusions

  • Watford to concede 2 goals again? Bournemouth certainly have goals in them.
  • I will speculatively back 2-2 pre match (or wait and then back at higher odds). These 2-2's don't come in that often but are for trading, not looking for 2-2. The odds will shorten at a 2-0/0-2, 2-1/1-2 or better yet a 1-1 scoreline.
  • I would have to lay Watford if Watford score first based on their poor concession rate.

15:00 - C Palace v Everton - 2.42 Everton

  • The odds suggests that the market cannot readily split these 2 teams. Instinctually though, I would side with Everton. Let's see if the form backs up my gut instinct.

Palace 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • All home defeats by 1 (6 games) or 2 goals (1).
  • No home match with exactly 4 goals.

Palace other stats

  • Only 1 win in 15 matches.
  • That saw the only clean sheet all season.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • All defeats at home v top 8 teams - Everton are 7th.
  • Opponents tend to score first at home.
  • Opponent has led at halftime in 7 of 10 home matches.

Everton 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • All defeats this season by either 1 goal (5 games) or 4 goals!
  • Yet to lead at halftime in an away match.

Everton other stats

  • Have scored 2 goals at least in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • 3 clean sheets in their last 4 matches.
  • Have scored 2 goals away v teams in the bottom 6 where Palace reside.
  • 81% over 1.5 goals.
  • 10 of 13 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • On form, Everton are clicking into gear and could score 2 goals again today. This suggests we lay Palace if Palace score first.
  • Everton have yet to have a 0-0 this season and this has been a good stat to use in the 2nd half where Everton score the majority of their matches. So let's hope for a 0-0 at halftime so we can exploit this again!
  • Do note that the opponent tends to score first in Palace home matches so if 0-0 at 20 minutes mark, you can take a chance and back Everton in the halftime market (although I would have to delay given that Everton tend to score 2nd half above all else.)

15:00 - Middlesbrough v West Ham - 2.48 Middlesbrough

  • 2 bottom 9 sides in the English Premiership. We also have a market which is non-committal.

Middlesbrough 100% stats

  • All home defeats by either 1 goal (4 matches) or 3 goals (1 match).
  • No over 3.5 goals matches at home.

Middlesbrough other stats

  • 2 consecutive 0-0's.
  • 4 consecutive 0-0's at halftime.
  • 1-0-1-0-3 ( =Liverpool) - 0-0 conceded at home. Bar the big boys, Boro are set up to be ultra defensive at home.
  • Only scored more than 1 goal in a home match on 2 occasions. 2 of 3 home wins came v bottom 3 sides.

West Ham 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • All away defeats by either 1 goal (3 matches) or 2 goals (3 matches).

West Ham other stats

  • 4 wins and 2 defeats last 6 matches. Defeats were v Leicester and Man Utd.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches. Failed to score in 2 of their last 3 matches.
  • Conceded last 6 away matches.
  • Only 1 away clean sheet.
  • Scored in 8 of 10 away matches.
  • Unbeaten home and away with a draw (1-1 v Boro) and 5 wins v teams in the bottom 5. Hammers eyeing a win? (3 of the wins were only 1-0).
  • Both teams have scored in 70% of away matches.

Conclusions

  • First, let me defer to the match odds which tells us the market thinks this is too tight to call.
  • Now the stats - Lay any late 0-0. Like Everton, West Ham matches tend to avoid the 0-0....eventually.
  • I would also look at Boro's 0-0 sequence ending.
  • Boro are really hard to score against. Speculators might want to back 0-0 pre-match and hope the Boro with a recent record of conceding 1-0-1-0-3 -0-0- turns up!

15:00 - Stoke v Man Utd - 1.64 Man Utd

Stoke 100% stats

  • All 4 home wins by 2 goals.
  • No home match with total goals of 3 or more.
  • Not scored a home equaliser.

Stoke other stats

  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Scored 2 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime in 12 of their last 14 matches.
  • Only 1 home 0-0.
  • All defeats v the top 5, conceding 4 goals in 4 of 5 matches and scoring in 4 of 5 matches.

Man Utd 100% stats

  • All away defeats by 1 or 2 goals.
  • No over 4.5 goals away.

Man Utd other stats

  • 6 wins and a draw in the last 7 matches.
  • 3 consecutive away wins.
  • No defeat in 12 matches.
  • Scored in their last 11 matches.
  • 6 wins and a defeat away v teams 8th and lower.
  • 8 of 11 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • With Stoke consistently conceding 3 or 4 goals v the top 5, this could continue for 2 goal-a-game Man Utd. Stoke may yet score but Man Utd may simply out-score them.
  • 1-3 correct score appeals to me. I only hope that Stoke score first.

15:00 - West Brom v Sunderland - 1.72 West Brom

West Brom 100% stats

  • All wins at home by 2 goals (4 matches) or 4+ goals (1 match).
  • No 1-0 or 0-1.

West Brom other stats

  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 4 at home and last 9 overall.
  • All home defeats by top 7 teams only.
  • All wins bar one at home saw West Brom scoring 3 or 4 goals.
  • 90% over 1.5 goals at home.

Sunderland 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • Not won to nil away.
  • Never led at halftime in an away match.

Sunderland other stats

  • Conceded in their last 10 away matches.
  • No draw in 8 away matches.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 4 matches.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away.
  • No win at all v top 10 and all defeats away v top 10 sides. West Brom are 8th.
  • 5 of 6 goals scored away came 2nd half.
  • 14 of 20 goals conceded away came 2nd half.
  • Opponents tend to score first away.

Conclusions

  • West Brom could concede today but not lose. In fact, form suggests West Brom have 3+ goals in them today in what should be a home win.
  • Note Sunderland like 0-0's at halftime away from home so it may be a goal fest 2nd half if 1-0 or 0-0 at halftime (lay under 4.5 goals for value).

15:15 - Real Madrid v Malaga - 1.16 Real Madrid

  • 0-0 and 1-1 in the last 2 head to heads. This draw sequence could end, so say the market.

Real Madrid 100% stats

  • Scored in every match.
  • Undefeated at home.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals.
  • Not conceded in both halves at home.

Real Madrid other stats

  • Only 1 defeat came last match.
  • 5 consecutive home wins.
  • Only 2 home clean sheets.
  • Scored first in 7/9 home matches.

Malaga 100% stats

  • No away win.
  • No away match of exactly 3 goals.
  • Never led at halftime away.

Malaga other stats

  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Conceded 4-0-4 v top 4 away.
  • 14 of 18 goals conceded away came first half.
  • Opponents led at halftime in 8/9 away matches.

Conclusions

  • Real Madrid are highly likely to be leading at halftime so either back Madrid halftime market or lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. Better value can be had by delaying and hoping Malaga reproduce similar defensive displays shown in the 0-0 away at Barcelona
  • Malaga could concede 4 goals today.
  • Unlikely we will see any strong trades today as Malaga tend to concede first, opponents tend to lead at halftime and Malaga concede heavily in the first half.

16:00 - Nantes v Paris St-G - 1.41 PSG

  • PSG tend to score 2 goals against Nantes in head to heads in the French Ligue 1.
  • PSG are an uncharacteristic 3rd placed in the league so these matches become must-wins.

Nantes 100% stats

  • All wins at home by 1 goal.
  • Not scored in both halves at home.

Nantes other stats

  • 4 consecutive wins to nil.
  • Lost every match v top 7 opposition.

PSG 100% stats

  • No away 0-0.
  • No away draw.

PSG other stats

  • 10 wins and a loss home and away v 11th and lower (Nantes are 11th).
  • 0-0-1 scored in their last 3 away matches, losing 2 of those.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Losses away v 2nd, 5th, 9th and 13th so are vulnerable.
  • 5 of 6 away wins were by 1 goal.
  • 9 of 12 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Nantes simply lose to top 7 sides. With PSG avoiding away draws, this does suggest an away win.
  • Likely this could be a single goal-in-it match.
  • Lay Nantes if Nantes score first. PSG are vulnerable away from home but I return to that Nantes record v top 7.

17:30 - Man City v Tottenham - 2.18 Man City

  • This is one of those high profile matches which might be too tight for any trading angles. I will check the stats though as something might reveal itself.

Man City 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • Scored in all home matches.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals at home.
  • No over 4.5 goals at home.
  • Not conceded in both halves at home.

Man City other stats

  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • 3 consecutive home wins.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Scored and conceded in 8 of their 10 home matches.
  • 8 of 10 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Tottenham 100% stats

  • All 2 away defeats were by a single goal.

Tottenham other stats

  • Failed to score only twice.
  • 12 consecutive matches without a 0-0 at halftime.
  • Scored 2 goals at least in 7 of their last 8 matches.
  • Not beaten a top 8 side away with a 1-2 loss, 3 1-1 draws and a 1-0 loss.

Conclusions

  • As I said at the beginning, these 2 could cancel each other out. On form, 1-1 would not surprise me. Tottenham cannot beat current top 8 sides away from home. City 100% over 1.5 goals clicks in with a 1-1. City have also failed to score in only 3 matches and scored and conceded in 8 of 10 home matches.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on Spurs. But as I say, it might be a chess match early on!
  • If we believe Spurs will not win away bit may have another 1-1 draw, it makes sense to consider laying the first team to score.

17:30 - RB Leipzig v Eintracht Frankfurt - 1.68 Leipzig

  • Remember this is the first match after an extended Winter Break.
  • Leipzig are 2nd in the German Bundesliga and Frankfurt are 4th. 2 surprise teams this season.

Leipzig 100% stats

  • No 0-0 this season.
  • Unbeaten at home.
  • Not conceded 2 goals in a match at home.
  • All wins at home by either 1 or 2 goals.
  • Not lost at halftime at home.
  • No over 4.5 goals matches at home.
  • Scored first in every home match.

Leipzig other stats

  • Failed to score only twice and those were the last 2 away matches which were defeats.
  • Have scored 2 goals at least in each of the last 5 home matches.
  • 5 consecutive home wins.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.

Frankfurt 100% stats

  • All 3 defeats were 1-0 away.
  • No over 3.5 goals matches away.
  • Not conceded in both halves away.

Frankfurt other stats

  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Not met a top 7 side away from home.
  • 2-2 v 1st and 3-3 v 3rd at home.

Conclusions

  • This match should not end 0-0 so lay any late 0-0.
  • Leipzig tend to score first at home and that may negate any trading opportunity.
  • It is a bit of a guessing game as we are not sure how Frankfurt set up away to the top 7 teams as they are yet to meet them this season.
  • If Leipzig can continue their 2 goals a game, that should be enough today.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

17:30 - AZ Alkmaar v Sparta Rotterdam - 1.56 AZ

  • 1-1 in the most recent Dutch Eredivisie head to head.

AZ 100% stats

  • No home 0-0.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • At least 1 team has scored at least 2 goals in a home match (AZ in all bar one home match).

AZ other stats

  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 7 and last 5 at home.
  • 4 2-2 matches at home.
  • Unbeaten v 10th and lower with Sparta 13th.
  • 75% over 3.5 goals at home.
  • Scored first in 6 of 8 home matches.

Sparta 100% stats

  • No 0-0.

Sparta other stats

  • 5 defeats and a draw in their last 6 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 12 matches.
  • No win in 8 away.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime away.
  • All defeats away v the top 7 and AZ are 5th.

Conclusions

  • We should not see a 0-0 here today.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Sparta are highly likely to concede so any Sparta lead to nil is vulnerable.
  • AZ should be scoring 2/3 goals today.
  • Speculators might like to back 2-2 given the amount of time AZ Score 2 goals at home and the number of 2-2 scorelines at home.

19:45 - AC Milan v Napoli - 2.08 Napoli

  • 3-4-1-4 goals scored by Napoli in recent head to heads in Italian Seria A.

AC Milan 100% stats

  • No opponent has led at halftime at home.

AC Milan other stats

  • Only 4 defeats.
  • No defeat in 8 at home.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home (50% of matches).
  • Lost 4-2 to Napoli earlier this season. Beat 1st and 4th at home (Napoli are 3rd).
  • 7 of 9 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Napoli 100% stats

  • Not conceded in both halves away.
  • No away match with exactly 2 goals.

Napoli other stats

  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored 3 goals at least in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Scored in their last 13 matches.
  • Only played one of top 6 away, a loss to Juve so no solid form to work with away to the best.
  • 10 goals scored immediately after 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Napoli love meeting Milan historically. This is a match in which I do not have any ultra strong angles. It takes research to find that out!
  • We can argue for both sides (Napoli in head to heads and earlier this season - Milan unbeaten in 8 at home and beat 1st and 4th at home). In-play stats for me!