Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

We have the Austrian Bundesliga beginning today, and the Swiss Super League is upon us with those Young Boys and Basel 'sometime' Fawlty. Slowly the European Leagues are waking up from their summer slumber. The Croat League is with us, the Danish SuperLiga returns to action so the football research will get more prolific and I'm afraid prioritised over the non-Grand Slam tennis. In Gstaad, Kontaveit and Bertens, the big 2, pick themselves.
I was delighted to back Sevastova at odds of 10 and watch them tumble to 3.8. Did you get on? She did not even win the match!! I backed her a set down and 3-0 down second set! David Goffin's loss (despite a trading profit!) is proof that we have to maintain caution in other-than-Grand Slam warm up events. Yes, there were mitigating circumstances. The Goff did meet a Croat in Croatia. Home players is a factor for consideration. I call it the 'Heather' effect. World Beater at home, but average elsewhere. I will try and tweet today but may be out and about.

14:00 - IFK Mariehamn v HIFK - 1.85 IFK

  • 1-1 the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 5th v 11th in the Finnish Veikkausliiga.

IFK

  • Only 4 defeats.
  • Only 3 clean sheets, 2 came in the last 3 matches.
  • 2-2-5-2 scored in their last 4 home matches.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals at home.
  • Only 1 home loss. Consistent wins at home v 7th and lower.

HIFK

  • Only away win v bottom side.
  • No win home or away v top 8 sides.
  • Scored and conceded away v top 9 without winning.

Conclusions

  • I would have to be with the home side today. They could score 2 goals at least and tend to beat teams 7th and lower at home (HIFK are 11th).
  • HIFK may lajnd a blow - they score and conceded away without winning.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

15:00 - Randers v FC Copenhagen - 2.24 FC Copenhagen

  • 2 consecutive score draws when FC has visited Randers in the Danish Super Liga.
  • The season has only just begun so there is little to work with. A hint though that we can lay FC Copenhagen if FC scores first in the hope that the score draw trend continues?

15:00 - Halmstads v Sundsvall - 2.12 Halmstads

  • 1-0 Sundsvall in the last head to head.
  • This is 14th v 13th in the Swedish Allsvenskan.

Halmstads

  • Only 1 win came first match of the season.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Scored 2 goals in a match only once this season.
  • Not played 11th and lower at home.

Sundsvall

  • Only 3 wins, and won their last match.
  • Only 1 away win.
  • Beat 14th and 16th at home this season.
  • Scored 2+ goals in only 2 matches this season.

Conclusions

  • A poor match. 2 teams who rarely score 2 goals. Does this suggest backing 0-0 pre-match in order to trade out if 0-0 at halftime?

15:00 - Malmo FF v Jonkopings Sodra - 1.38 Malmo

  • Malmo tend to win head to heads.
  • This is 1st v 12th in the Swedish Allsvenskan.

Malmo

  • Only 1 defeat.
  • Failed to score 2+ goals in only 1 home match.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • Scored and conceded last 6 at home.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals at home.
  • Scored first in 6/7 at home.

Sodra

  • No win in 8 includes a 1-2 loss v Malmo.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • 4 draws in their last 5 aways.
  • Not played top 2 away.
  • Not beaten a top 13 side away.

Conclusions

  • We must be with Malmo today and an expectation that they will score 2 goals at least. They have been conceding 2+ goals recently at home but Sodra has not shown that they have 2 goals in them v top sides.
  • I would lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on expectation for goals.
  • Do note Malmo scored and conceded frequently at home so if conceding first, back Malmo.

15:00 - FC Inter v Ilves - 2.42 FC

  • 0-0, 0-1 Ilves and 0-2 Inter in the last 3 head to heads. That clears that up then!!
  • This is 7th v 6th in the Finnish Veikkausliiga.

FC Inter

  • Only 6 defeats.
  • Unbeaten in 4 at home.
  • Opponents have scored first in 5/8 home matches.
  • 4 draws and a 0-1 loss at home v top 5 and play 6th today.

Ilves

  • Only 1 loss in 7.
  • Highly defensive. Only 5 over 2.5 goals matches all season.
  • 0-0-0-1-0-2-1 conceded recently.
  • 7 of 9 goals scored away came 2nd half.
  • Solid enough look to away form, losses away v 1st, and anomalously 9th and 12th.

Conclusions

  • I would consider backing 0-0 today pre match and hope to trade out at halftime if lucky enough to see a 0-0. Why? Ilves keep it tight last 7 matches, FC Inter play a tight match v top 5 and meet 6th today. Note too that Ilves scored 7 of their 9 away goals in the second half.
  • That is the only angle really.

15:00 - KuPS v Lahti - 1.97 KuPS

  • Both teams scored in the last 3 head to heads.
  • KuPS has won the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 4th v 3rd in the Finnish Veikkausliiga.

KuPS

  • Only 2 wins last 7 matches came last 2 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • No home 0-0.
  • Not beaten a top 6 side at home.
  • Beat Lahti 1-2 away.

Lahti

  • Only 2 defeats, one was v KuPS.
  • Unbeaten in 10 matches.
  • 9 of 10 goals scored away came 2nd half.
  • yet to meet top 4 away.

Conclusions

  • Lahti's form looks excellent until we remember they are yet to meet the top 4 away from home and lost to KuPS this season with home advantage too.
  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • If Lahti are to score it is more likely to be a 2nd half goal away.
  • I could foresee both teams scoring and would be keener on laying Lahti if Lahti scored first.

17:00 - Sirius v Hacken - 2.68 Sirius

  • 2-2 the last time these 2 met, the only relevant head to head.
  • This is 4th v 8th in the Swedish Allsvenskan.

Sirius

  • Only 3 defeats.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Only 1 home loss.
  • No home 0-0.
  • No win v 8th-12th inclusive home and away - a coincidence?

Hacken

  • Only 4 defeats, 3 of which have come within the last 5 matches.
  • Scored 2 goals only once away from home.
  • Not beaten a top 7 side home or away.

Conclusions

  • Form wise, I cannot see Sirius losing, but I cannot discount a draw.
  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Hacken has yet to beat a top 7 side so if they score first, I think Hacken are layable.
  • I must say that the market cannot split these sides.

18:00 - Lausanne Sport v St Gallen - 2.3 Lausanne

  • St Gallen has won the last 3 head to heads.
  • The Swiss Super League begins today and I just wanted to point that out as it is a good tradable league once up and running.
  • Little to work with here bar the head to heads.

18:00 - Young Boys v Basel - 2.5 FC Basel

  • A quick mention for these 2 sides who will be providing us with superb season-long trading opportunities in the Swiss Super League as they tend to do season-in and season-out.
  • Yes the Young Boys play at Wankdorf Bern. Let's get that out of our systems early on!
  • Both teams tend to score in head to heads at Wankdorf so look for that today.
  • In the last 5 home head to heads, at least one team has scored 2 goals.
  • This presents me with 2 possible trading perspectives. 1) Back 2-2 pre match and hope this pattern continues.
  • 2) back 2-1 and 1-2 and hope that both teams score and one of the sides scores 2 goals at least. If a 1-1 scoreline we are presented with a trading opportunity as both 2-1 and 1-2 odds will shorten.

18:30 - Limerick v Sligo Rovers - 2.08 Limerick

  • Both teams tend to remain unbeaten in their home matches.
  • This is 6th v 11th in the Irish Premier Division.

Limerick

  • Only 3 wins in 13 matches.
  • Only 1 loss in 6 home matches.
  • 7 over 2.5 goals matches in 8 home matches.
  • In 5 of their last 7 matches, Limerick has scored 2 goals at least.
  • No 0-0.
  • 2 of 3 defeats at home v 1st and 2nd.

Sligo Rovers

  • Only 1 win in 10 matches.
  • Only 4 wins all season.
  • No win in 11 away and conceded in all of those 11 away.
  • No 0-0 away.

Conclusions

  • Sligo Rovers should not win today so lay Sligo if Sligo scores first.
  • Limerick could score 2 goals at least today so that is a ready angle.
  • If 0-0 for a while, remember that Sligo Rovers has conceded in each of their last 11 away matches.