Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

Where I mention BANKER below, this signifies those matches where I think the favourites should win. These matches I would personally prioritise as regards DRT.

Remember the strategies:

Lay the 0-0 halftime score in certain signalled matches

Lay the 0-0 2nd half in matches where goals were expected but have not yet materialised

Lay the 2-2 scoreline, especially early on in matches. 2-2 shows us that teams are scoring and conceding.

Lay the away team leading 0-2 before halftime, especially if they are NOT pre-match favourites. The home team is usually galvanised by the halftime team talk.

Lay the underdog if they score first in certain matches (especially BANKER matches where I would back the BANKERS if they conceded first at enhanced odds).

Lay the underdog scoring early in the first half, in the HALF TIME market, especially in BANKER matches.

Do note matches where one team is red carded. The opponents do tend to score next more often than not.

There will be no live chat today. I only received 2 emails so it suggests you have other plans. My apologies to the 2 guys keen on a live chat.

If you look at the message below, the words "dead rubber" appear a lot. This suggests we tread carefully. There are really only 2 Premiership matches which mean something, those involving Hull and Newcastle so focus on those. Ditto the other leagues.

11:00 UK Amkar v Zenit St Petersburg - 2.6 home and away

Standout Stats

  • Zenit have won the title. I am not sure if it's the bottom 4 or bottom 2 who are vulnerable in Russia. If the bottom 4, then Amkar need a win today to ensure they are safe.
  • 2 matches remain this season so Amkar have some leeway but a win would really help.
  • Only 1 loss in 7 for Amkar so they are making a push for survival!
  • 0-1-1-0-1-0 conceded in their last 6 home matches.
  • A 1-2 loss v 2nd but wins v 3rd and 4th suggest Amkar could be competitive today. The market hasn't got a clue, pricing up both teams exactly the same
  • Only 2 defeats all season for Zenit . Will they do a "Bayern" now they have won the title? i,e start losing!
  • 4 draws in their last 6 matches for Zenit.
  • 3 consecutive away draws for Zenit

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Needs must for Amkar. It'll be a strong performance from them today I think. 2 matches remain for them to guarantee they don't enter any relegation playoffs which I think occur in Russia.
  • I would lay Zenit if they scored first.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

12:00 UK Hibernian v Rangers - 2.2 home

Standout Stats

  • 2-0 to Rangers from the first leg of this play-off.
  • 2 Hibs wins and 2 Rangers wins in the last 4 head to heads.
  • I would suggest that Hibs could get back into this play-off today. I would certainly lay Rangers if they scored first today. Needs must for Hibs.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

12:00 UK Kasimpasa v Erciyesspor - 1.53 home

Standout Stats

  • 4 consecutive Kasimpasa wins in head to heads, scoring 3-3-5 in the last 3 matches.
  • This is 11th v 18th in the Turkish Super Lig.
  • Erciyesspor finish bottom 3 even if they win the last 2 matches remaining. There is nothing really for Kasimpasa to play for .
  • Kasimpasa have scored and conceded in their last 10 matches and in their last 6 at home.
  • Only 1 win in 9 home matches.
  • 5 losses at home, 4 were v the top 4. Against the bottom 5 at home, Kasimpasa scored 2 goals at least.
  • Both teams have scored in 72% of Kasimpasa's matches.
  • No win in 11, and in 7 away for Erciyesspor.
  • Erci have conceded in their last 13 away.
  • 5 losses and 2 1-1 draws in their last 7 away matches for Erci.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 win away for Erci came v 2nd bottom. Erci have drawn 7 of 9 matches v 7th-16th inclusive.
  • Both teams have scored in 81% of away matches

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • This is effectively a dead rubber so do bear that in mind. Both teams to score has a high chance of success here and given Erci's draws, I would lay the away side if they score first.
  • I think Kasimpasa could win today, if of course they are motivated. Could they score 3 goals again? If this is 0-0 for a while, then back over 3.5 goals at enhanced odds.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

14:30 UK Borussia M'gladbach v Augsburg - 1.55 home

Standout Stats

  • Augsburg are unbeaten in 3 matches, with a draw and 2 wins.
  • Both teams scored in those 3 matches.
  • This is 3rd v 6th in the Bundesliga.
  • If Mgladbach win, they could go 2nd if Wolfsburg lose.

Mgladbach

  • 8 wins in their last 9 matches.
  • 4 clean sheets in their last 6 matches.
  • 6 clean sheets in their last 7 matches
  • 9 match home winning streak
  • Only 1 loss at home

Augsburg

  • No draw in 16 away matches.
  • Only 3 wins in their last 14 matches.
  • 5 losses in their last 6 matches.
  • 0-1 win, 1-0,1-0,1-0 away v top 5

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • An ultra defensive match? Look at Augsburg v top 5 away and Mgladbach's clean sheets.
  • Plenty of motivation for Mgladbach but tough to get an angle in.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

14:30 UK Bayern Munich v Mainz 05 - 1.2 home

Standout Stats

  • 5 consecutive Bayern wins in head to heads.
  • This is a dead rubber.  Bayern have lost their last 3 matches since winning the league and are unreliable.
  • This is their last home match of the season. Will they win to appease the masses? Last year Bayern won their last home match of the season 1-0.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Tough to read a Bayern side whose thoughts are elsewhere since winning the title. 3 consecutive defeats . The last home match  - enough motivation?
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

14:30 UK Borussia Dortmund v Werder Bremen - 1.3 home

Standout Stats

  • 6 Dortmund wins ended with a 2-1 Werder win in the last head to head.
  • This is 7th v 8th in the Bundesliga, both on 43 points.
  • This is another dead rubber. The market expects Dortmund to give their home fans a good goodbye win.
  • 3 consecutive home wins for Dortmund saw them win with clean sheets . Only Bayern beat Dortmund at home in their last 7 matches.
  • 38% over 2.5 goals at home only for Dortmund.
  • 16 of 23 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • Werder have scored in their last 9 away matches.
  • Werder have scored and conceded in 8 of their last 9 away matches.
  • Werder are yet to beat any side above them in the league away from home.
  • Both teams have scored in 81% of Werder's away matches

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Both teams to score has a high percentage chance today based on Werder. The market expects Dortmund to win in their last home match.
  • Lay Werder if they score first.
  • Lay the 0-0 halftime score in the hope of a goal before halftime.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

14:30 UK Paderborn v Stuttgart - 2 away

Standout Stats

  • 0-0 in the last head to head.
  • This is 18th v 16th in the Bundesliga. If Paderborn win, they will be on 34 points but with woeful negative goal difference are down. If Stuttgart win, they will ensure that Freiburg, and Hannover have to win, and Hertha draw . if that happens, Hertha will stay up on goal difference. At any rate, Stuttgart must win today.

Paderborn

  • Only 2 wins in their last 12 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 5 matches.
  • Outside of the top 6 at home, Paderborn have only lost 1 match.

Stuttgart

  • 2 consecutive wins.
  • Have scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 away matches
  • Unbeaten home and away v 14th and lower

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Stuttgart are the form side coming into this and have the requisite motivation to save their season ( pending other results).
  • Both teams could reasonably score today so I'd lay Paderborn if Paderborn scored first. Stuttgart impressed me with their win last time out and look to ride a small winning wave currently.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

14:30 UK Hannover 96 v Freiburg - 1.85 home

Standout Stats

  • If Hamburg and Stuttgart win, then Hannover and Freiburg are in trouble. A draw is enough if Stuttgart do not win.
  • This looks like a must-win for these 2 today in 14th and 15th.
  • Both teams have scored in the last 5 head to heads.
  • 3-1 Freiburg, 2-1 Freiburg, 3-2 Hannover and 2-2 Freiburg in the last 4 head to heads.

Hannover

  • Only 1 win in 17 matches came in their last match.
  • Scored and conceded in 13 of their last 15 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 10 of their last 11 home matches.
  • No win in 8 at home.
  • Conceded in their last 17 matches.
  • Conceded 19 of 24 home goals in the 2nd half.

Freiburg

  • No win in 5 away
  • Scored and conceded in their last 5 matches
  • Only 1 win in their last 10 away matches.
  • All score draws away v teams below them.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Both teams to score is a strong trend here in a match with 2 poor teams. Freiburg''s score draws away v teams below them suggest we lay them if they score first.
  • Lay any team which leads 2-0.
  • A must win for both sides could make for a nervy affair. Stats wise, it could be a goal fest.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

14:30 UK FC Koln v Wolfsburg - 1.95 away

Standout Stats

  • I'm not sure of the benefit of finishing 2nd for Wolfsburg. Doesn't a top 3 spot guarantee Champions League football? If Mgladbach win, Wolfs would have to draw to retain 2nd spot.
  • Only 4 wins in 18 matches for Koln sees them luke-warm.
  • Koln are unbeaten in 9 home matches but 6 of those matches were draws.
  • Koln failed to score v 1st and 3rd at home.
  • Wolfsburg are far more vulnerable away from home, with only 2 wins v top 13 , those were 4-5 and 3-5 scorelines.
  • Only 2 Wolf losses in 21 matches were 1-0 away from home.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Questionable motivation here as Wolfsburg are guaranteed 3rd spot which I think is Champions League spot. Koln tend to draw and Wolfs away tend to draw v teams around Koln.
  • Both teams could reasonably score today.
  • Koln failed to score v top 3 so if Wolfsburg are motivated, they could simply win to nil.Wolfsburg are the form side.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

14:30 UK Hoffenheim v Hertha Berlin - 2 home

Standout Stats

  • Farewell to the Hoff who are playing at home. As with Dortmund , the market is generally correct when pricing up the Hoff, and the odds today suggests they may not lose, but will have a reasonably competitive match..
  • 2-3 Hoff, 1-1 and 0-5 Hoff in the last 3 head to heads. They can certainly let loose when they want to.
  • Hoff are safe but if Stuttgart win , Hertha Berlin will be in trouble as they will need a win.
  • Only 1 win in 8 for the Hoff may give Hertha a look in today.
  • To be fair to the Hoff at home, they have played Mgladbach, Bayern and Dortmund, 3 of the established big sides
  • Prior to those matches, 3 consecutive home wins.
  • Hoff have conceded in their last 7 matches
  • Hoff are unbeaten v 13th and lower home and away
  • Hertha have lost all of their away matches v the top 8 and are playing 9th today.Hoff are in the middle of that poor run and only 1 defeat v teams away from home below Hoff in the league. Which way will they fall today?
  • 19 of 28 goals conceded came 2nd half.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • I am not sure whether the Hoff will serve up their usual fun and games. If so, then lay the 0-0 halftime score. Lay the Hoff if they take a 2-0 lead. Expect both teams to score. You know the drill!
  • Do remember the dynamic here. Hertha Berlin really do need to win.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

15:30 UK Levante v Elche - 2 home

Standout Stats

  • Both sides are safe and the head to heads are wholly inconclusive. This is not a match to dwell upon.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

17:00 UK Juventus v Napoli - 2.37 away

Standout Stats

  • Napoli, Draw, Juventus in the last 3 head to heads.
  • This is 1st v 4th in Seria A. This is a dead rubber .Juventus will remain top of course and Napoli will remain 4th.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Welcome to the last day of the season. I'll be saying "dead rubber" a lot today.  Absolutely no angle into this match, suffice to say that Juventus will be more concerned with the Champions League Final. It's tough to judge. Juventus would like to say goodbye to their support on a positive note but must prioritise the Champions League Final. With the latter in mind, Napoli could nick it today?
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

17:30 UK Almeria v Valencia - 1.67 away

Standout Stats

  • 1-2 Almeria, 2-2, 3-2 Valencia in the last 3 head to heads
  • This is 19th v 4th in La Liga and this is definitely NOT a dead rubber.
  • If Almeria win, they could stay up. If Valencia win, they could pinch 3rd place from Alt Madrid below.Atl Madrid only need a draw to remain 3rd.

Almeria

  • 2 match losing streak, 1 at home.
  • Have scored and conceded in their last 3 matches. scored in their last 5 home matches.
  • Only 2 wins in their last 15 matches came at home.
  • Only 1 defeat in their last 4 home matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime in their last 10 matches.
  • Sgainst top 10 at home, no wins and defeats v 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 7th, 9th. Scored 1-1-0-0-0-0 at home v top 7

Valencia

  • No win in 4 away matches
  • Scored and conceded in their last 4 matches.
  • 4 score draws in their last 6 away matches.
  • Only 2 defeats in 24 matches came away v Malaga and Barcelona.
  • 3 wins in their last 9 matches came at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime in their last 7 matches.
  • Wins away v the other bottom 3 teams.
  • Both teams have scored in 67% of away matches.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • This match could define both teams' seasons. It is likely to be as keenly contested as the head to heads. If Almeria win, they have a real shot at staying up ( pending other results).
  • I expect both teams to score today, despite Almeria's dire record away to top 10 teams . Valencia rarely lose of late, only 2 defeats in 24 matches and are the best teams of the 2, but they wobbled at home latest, coming back from 0-1 down when strong odds on favourites.
  • Logic sides with the away side, but since when was logic successfully employed on the last day of the season?
  • Lay any side 2-0 up.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

17:30 UK Granada v Atletico Madrid - 2.3 away

Standout Stats

  • 6 consecutive Atl Madrid wins in head to heads. Atl Madrid need only a draw today in order to secure 3rd place.
  • This is 16th v 3rd in La Liga.

Granada

  • Granada need a win really in order to secure their La Liga livelihood.
  • 3 match winning streak
  • 2 consecutive clean sheets.
  • Only 1 loss in 6 home matches.
  • No win at home v top 7, 2 losses v 1st and 2nd and all draws v the other top 7.
  • 22% over 2.5 goals at home

Atl Madrid

  • No defeat in 7 away matches.
  • Scored in their last 5 away matches.
  • Only 1 loss in their last 14 was a 0-1 loss to Barcelona.
  • All wins bar a 2-2 draw home and away v 13th and lower.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Atl Madrid are favoured here based on form and head to heads. Do remember folks that they only need a draw today. Granada need a win. If Granada score first, I would lay them and back the 1-0 correct score as insurance because they need the win! Atl Madrid are the better side quite obviously.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

17:30 UK Eibar v Cordoba - 1.3 home

Standout Stats

  • 1-1 earlier this season saw Cordoba score first
  • This is 18th v 20th in La Liga. Cordoba are down. Eibar with 3 points could salvage their season
  • There is no point in traditional research here given the need of the home side . Only 1 win in 19 matches for Eibar though is a sequence which needs another win added to it.
  • Eibar won 5-2 at home to 2nd bottom so there is a precedent here for justifying the odds.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

17:30 UK Barcelona v Deportivo La Coruna - 1.25 home

Standout Stats

  • 6 Barca wins and a draw in the last 7 head to heads.
  • Barcelona have the title in the bag.
  • Deportivo need a win because Eibar are priced to win today.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Poor Depor. Meeting Champions Barcelona at home in Barca's last match of the season. One to see unravel in-play I think.
  • Don't need to wins don't tend to win....do they? With the boy Messi in sparkling form, I am afraid Depor are in for a long night.0
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

18:00 UK Trabzonspor v Balikesirspor - 1.25 home

Standout Stats

  • 2-2 in the last head to head saw Balikesirspor take a 2-0 lead.
  • This is another dead rubber. Balik are relegated. Trabzonspor have little to play for.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Go with the market here? Lay Balik especially if they lead 0-2 again!
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

19:00 UK Olympiacos v Xanthi - 1.28 home banker

Standout Stats

  • This is the Greek Cup.
  • Olympiakos have been solid domestically even without needing to win. Against Xanthi, they have 6 consecutive wins. In those 6 consecutive wins, Olympiakos only conceded 1 goal.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • No in-depth research here. Olympiakos are clearly the better side, historically and in recent matches. Side with them today and lay Xanthi if they score first.
  • If you want a correct score punt, 2-0, 3-0, 4-0 possibles if Oly keep their clean sheets.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

19:30 UK Real Madrid v Getafe - 1.11 home

Standout Stats

  • This is a dead rubber. Real madrid blew it with a draw last time out. Barca are champions.
  • Getafe are safe from harm on 37 points.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • The odds suggest Real Madrid will give their home support a real send off. 4-4-3-3 scored in the last 4 head to heads for Real Madrid fits in with the 1.11 quote. These odds suggest Real score before halftime too so watch out for that.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

20:00 UK St Etienne v Guingamp - 1.28 home banker

Standout Stats

  • 1-0, 0-0, 0-2 St Etienne in the last 3 head to heads.
  • This is 5th v 10th in French Ligue 1.
  • If Monaco and Marseille lose and St Etienne win, they go 3rd.They are safe in 5th.
  • Guingamp are safe in 10th.
  • 5 consecutive home wins sees St Etienne in fine form coming into this match.
  • 5 consecutive clean sheets in those wins too.
  • Only 2 losses for St Etienne this season at home were 0-1
  • Clean sheets at home in all matches v 7th-13th inclusive.
  • 20 of 30 home goals scored came 2nd half.
  • Guingamp have won 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • They failed to score in 3 of their last 4 away matches.
  • Lost away to all top 4.
  • 10 0-0's at halftime away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Plenty to play for for St Etienne albeit a slim chance at 3rd place. They are the form side here at home and could win with another clean sheet today.
  • If it's 0-0 at halftime fear not, St Etienne have scored 20 goals 2nd half, and Guingamp have had over 1/2 of away matches 0-0 at halftime
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

20:00 UK Paris Saint-Germain v Reims - 1.14 home

Standout Stats

  • 0-3, 3-0, 2-2 in the last 3 head to heads, PSG wins there.
  • This is the Champions v 14th and safe from harm in another dead rubber.
  • PSG are unbeaten at home and Reims have not won away v top 8.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • 1.14 suggests goals before halftime and 3+ goals for PSG to say goodbye to their fans.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

20:00 UK Marseille v Bastia - 1.25 home

Standout Stats

  • 3-0 Marseille and 3-3 draw in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 4th v 11th in the French Ligue 1
  • A win for Marseille takes them possibly 3rd. They must win though in order to take advantage of Monaco slipping up.

Marseille

  • 3 match winning streak.
  • No draw in 8.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 3 at home
  • Only 4 home defeats.
  • Wins v 8th-13th at home
  • 72% over 2.5 goals at home

Bastia

  • 2 match winning streak away
  • No draw in 7 away
  • 6 losses and a 1-1 away v top 8.
  • Failed to score away v top 5.
  • 28% over 2.5 goals away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Marseille must win and have a good record v Bastia.A win allows them to take advantage of Monaco slipping up. Bastia have been good recently but cannot beat top 8 sides.
  • I would expect Marseille to get what they need today.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

20:00 UK Lorient v Monaco - 1.5 away

Standout Stats

  • 2-2 and 1-2 Lorient in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 16th v 3rd in the French Ligue 1
  • Lorient are clear of relegation.
  • This is a must-win for Monaco in order to secure 3rd place from marauders directly below them in the league.

Lorient

  • No win in 3 home matches.
  • Failed to score in their last 3 at home
  • Have failed to beat any top 7 side at home. Did draw v 2nd, 4th, 6th and 7th.
  • Scored and conceded v top 4 at home
  • 33% over 2.5 goals at home

Monaco

  • No draw in 11 away matches.
  • Scored in their last 6 away matches.
  • Only 2 defeats since December 2014.
  • 5 consecutive away wins ended with a loss v Marseille
  • All wins away v 11th and lower.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • A strong trend towards both teams scoring  - Lorient v top 4 at home and head to heads- suggests we lay Lorient if they score first. A must win for Monaco to underline 3rd place and not rely on other teams to do them a favour. Monaco come off the back of a strong 5 match winning run away, ended by 4th placed Marseille. Monaco's away record v 11th and lower is exemplary and they could get this win today but need to score 2+ goals
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------