Usual 14:30 start today and teams who I suspect are more reliable than the likes of Mouscron, Chelsea U23, and FC Koln et al from last night. As ever I will be tweeting earlier if online as the football goes on throughout the day. We are still shy of any current form so reliance really on the in-play stats. I would though ask you to note the research for Russian Premier League and Swedish Allsvenskan. This is how the research will look after the Elite Leagues have played around 7+ matches.
Choose your trading strategy too. Laying teams 0-2 up at this stage of the season is more speculative. Looking for 0-0's at halftime and goals second half really keeps delivering and did so last night with Bristol City, and the Dutch Eerste Divisie. Red cards seem as reliable as ever.
Already in the Russian Premier League, we can discern patterns only after 7 matches played.
14:30 - Eintracht Frankfurt v Wolfsburg - 2.34 Frank
- Wolfsburg has won the last 2 head to heads and scored 2 goals in each of their last 2 visits to Frankfurt.
- E. Frankfurt have conceded first in 8/11 home matches against bottom-six teams while Wolfsburg have scored first in 5/9 away matches against middle-third teams.
- There have been -2.5 goals in 8/12 Wolfsburg away matches against middle-third teams.
- 0-0 for Frankfurt in their opener. Wolfsburg lost to Dortmund as they tend to.
- I would lay any late 0-0. These 2 should conjure up a goal.
14:30 - Leverkusen v Hoffenheim - 2.18 Leverkusen
- Hoff won the last 2 head to heads to nil.
- There have been +2.5 goals in 10/14 Leverkusen home matches and in 6/10 Hoffenheim away matches.
- Hoffenheim have conceded first in 7/11 away matches against middle-third teams.
- 3-1 loss for Leverkusen in their opener v Bayern. Hoff beat Werder Bremen 1-0.
- Only 5 home wins for Leverkusen last season. They used to be the 3rd best team in Germany. Chicarito is now at West Ham and will be a big miss infront of goal.
- Hoffenheim used to be ultra unreliable and that was why we loved them. 4th place last season though was a huge turnaround. Only 4 defeats last season, all 2-1 and all away from home.
- I do think this Hoffenheim side is the best positioned of these 2 at the moment and I would side with them today if Leverkusen scored first.
14:30 - Stuttgart v Mainz - 2.32 Stuttgart
- 0-0 and 1-3 Mainz in the last 2 head to heads.
- Promoted teams have had +2.5 goals in 54% of home matches against bottom-six teams since 2012-13.
- There have been +2.5 goals in 13/19 FSV Mainz 05 away matches. FSV Mainz 05 have lost 10/13 away matches.
- Opening day defeats for both teams. Stuttgart are newly promoted. We do need to keep an eye on newly promoted sides until they show form patterns. They have been very unpredictable throughout the European Leagues.
- Only 3 away wins for Mainz last season.
14:30 - Augsburg v Mgladbach - 2.4 Mgladbach
- 1-0 Augsburg and 1-1 in the last 2 head to heads.
- Augsburg have drawn the first half in 6/8 home matches against top-half teams while there have been -2.5 goals in 7/11 B. M'gladbach away matches against bottom-six teams.
- Augsburg have drawn 5/8 home matches against top-half teams.
- 1-0 loss for Augsburg, 1-0 win for Mgladbach in their openers. This is not a match I want to focus on just yet.
14:30 - Werder Bremen v Bayern Munich - 1.27 Bayern
- Bayern Munich win head to heads. At Werder, 0-1 and 1-2 the last time Bayern visited. So far tighter matches at Werder than at Munich.
- W. Bremen have conceded first in 9/12 home matches against top-six teams while Bayern have won 8/12 away matches against top-half teams.
- Bayern have scored first in 13/20 away matches.
- Against Bayern and Dortmund at home last season, Werder only lost 1-2. Werder only drew one home match last season.
- Only 2 losses last year for Bayern, came away v 3rd and 4th 1-0. We should expect an away win. It may be a tighter match than many expect.
17:30 - Dortmund v Hertha Berlin - 1.39 Dortmund
- 1-1, 1-1, 2-1 Hertha in the last 3 head to heads. There may be trouble ahead for Dortmund?
- B. Dortmund have had W/W double results in 10/12 home matches while Hertha Berlin have lost the first half in 7/9 away matches against top-six teams.
- Hertha Berlin have had L/L double results in 6/9 away matches against top-six teams.
- Dortmund do what they normally do v Wolfsburg. Win by 3 goals. Hertha won their opener v Stuttgart 2-0 - 2 goals from Leckie.
- A creditable 6th place for Hertha Last season.Hertha were dire away from home, failing to beat any top 15 side.
- Dortmund themselves could not beat the top 6 away.
- The odds here may be a tad short if Hertha can maintain competitive head to heads with Dortmund? Both teams to score again and certainly I would prefer to be laying Hertha Berlin if Hertha were to score first.
12:30 - Bournemouth v Man City - 1.34 Man City
- Not even 10 man City can get beaten. Bournemouth are yet to score against Man City in head to heads.
- Bournemouth have lost by two or more goals in 5/9 home matches against top-six teams while Man City have won by two or more goals in 6/10 away matches.
- Man City have won 13/20 away matches.
- A recent confidence boosting win in the League Cup for Bournemouth. Today though should see the 3rd consecutive defeat.
- Man City look reliable this season if Bournemouth score first. Correct score speculators might want a 0-2 or 0-4 correct score?
15:00 - Newcastle v West Ham - 2.4 Newcastle
- Last head to heads in June 2016.
- West Ham have conceded first in 6/10 away matches and they have lost 10/20 away matches.
- Bottom-six promoted teams have had -2.5 goals in 54% of home matches against bottom-six teams since 2012-13.
- Both sides have lost their opening 2 matches. Newcastle are yet to score and were undone by the idiocy of Brain of Britain Shelvey-they took his brain out when they shaved his head.
- West Ham show the class of Chicarito who netted twice away at Southampton albeit in a 3-2 loss.
- There is likely to be a goal threat from West Ham today but as ever with 2 matches played, very little form to get our teeth into.
15:00 - Huddersfield v Southampton - 2.2 Southampton
- Head to Heads from League One.
- Clean sheets and wins. Perfect start from Huddersfield. I feel Saints are a step up from Palace and Newcastle though.
- Southampton has played 2 home matches to date. They absolutely battered Swansea without scoring. They scored 3 goals against West Ham.
- We are yet to see how Southampton shape up away from home so it is difficult to gauge this match.
15:00 - C Palace v Swansea - 1.99 Palace
- 5-4 Swansea and 1-2 Swansea in the 2 recent head to heads.
- New manager for Palace so take note. He got their first win, in the League Cup mid week against an injury ravaged Ipswich side with the tea ladies as wing backs and the kit man up front with Mick McCarthy's grandad.
- C Palace have conceded first in 12/17 home matches and they have lost 11/17 home matches.
- There have been +2.5 goals in 7/10 Swansea away matches against bottom-six teams.
- 2 matches in and neither side has managed to score yet.
- I would lay any late 0-0 here or any 0-0 at halftime because this looks a 'lowering' of the sights for both sides. Note though Palace are without Zaha who is a strong attacking threat.
15:00 - Watford v Brighton - 1.97 Watford
- Watford have won 3/5 home matches against promoted teams while bottom-six promoted teams have lost 67% of away matches against top-six teams since 2012-13.
- Bottom-six promoted teams have conceded first in 70% of away matches against top-six teams since 2012-13.
- 5 goals, 5 different players for Watford. A 3-3 draw with Liverpool was more about Liverpool's keystone cops defending than any thing Watford did. They did not deserve 3 goals at all.
- A 0-2 away win v Bournemouth might suggests struggles for the Cherries this season. Watford remain unbeaten and are 4th in the Premiership. They should take a Polaroid as that will not last long.
- Brighton won mid week v Barnet in the League Cup.
- 2 consecutive 2-0 defeats v Premiership Champions past Leicester and Man City. Watford should be more within Brighton's grasp.
- I expect a tighter match in store and an end to the 2-0 defeats for Brighton.
17:30 - Man Utd v Leicester - 1.31 Man Utd
- 7 goals in 2 head to heads for United should allow some confidence today.
- 2 4-0 wins for United this season sees them scoring predominantly in the second half.
- Man Utd have won 8/12 home matches against middle-third teams while Leicester have lost 14/20 away matches.
- Leicester have lost the first half in 12/20 away matches.
- I like Leicester City under the Great Bard. They have goals in them 5 goals in 2 matches included 3 against Arsenal.
- We might get an opportunity of a Leicester opener here without them necessarily winning. They do meet a sturdier United who, even last season, were too good for them. BUT were the United wins pre-Great Bard or post-Great Bard?
SPANISH PRIMERA LIGA
17:15 - Alaves v Barcelona - 1.32 Barca
- Alaves won a head to head as recently as September 2016 but that is very much not the norm.
- There have been -2.5 goals in 9/14 Alaves home matches while Barcelona have drawn the first half in 5/8 away matches against top half non-Big Two teams.
- Alaves have drawn the first half in 11/19 home matches.
- 1-0 loss for Alaves and 2-0 win for Barca so far this season.
- Barca's first away match of the season.
- 9th last season for Alaves who, at home, did lose against the top 2.They scored 2 goals in a home game only once v the top 10.
- Only 4 defeats last season for Barca and one was inflicted by Alaves.
19:15 - Levante v Deportivo - 2.28 Levante
- Promoted teams have had -2.5 goals in 56% of home matches against bottom-half teams since 2012-13.
- Deportivo have drawn the first half in 5/8 away matches against promoted teams.
- There have been -2.5 goals in 5/8 Deportivo away matches against promoted teams.
- Levante are newly promoted.
- I will defer judgement on newly promoted teams until they start showing strong negative or positive patterns. An 88th minute penalty win v Villareal betrays a tight opener for Levante and Deportivo losing to Real Madrid was as much of a surprise as finding out Liberace was gay.
- Let the in-play stats dictate. Newly Promoted side are so tough to read early on.
19:15 - Girona v Malaga - 2.24 Girona
- Promoted teams have had -2.5 goals in 56% of home matches against middle-third teams since 2012-13.
- There have been -2.5 goals in 8/8 Malaga away matches against promoted teams.
- Malaga have drawn the first half in 5/8 away matches against promoted teams.
- Girona gave Atl Madrid a scare and us a profit as they took a 2-0 lead, madrid got a star striker sent off and still salvaged a 2-2.
- I will defer to the stats as this Girona could be anything. Newly promoted so very difficult to know what to expect. I do hope they are as accomodating to the trader as they were on opening day.
21:15 - Las Palmas v Atletico Madrid - 1.79 Atl Madrid
- Outside of the Copa del rey, Alt Madrid tend to win head to heads.
- Las Palmas have conceded first in 9/11 home matches against top-six teams while Atl. Madrid have won 8/11 away matches against middle-third teams.
- Las Palmas have lost 6/9 home matches against top-six teams.
- Las Palmas lost 1-0 to Valencia on their opener. We know all about Alt Madrid on their opener. Will Antoine Griezmann (red carded) be missing today?
- When Griezmann was in the team last season v bottom half sides away from home, Atl Madrid were unbeaten.
- Do expect Atl Madrid to dominate today as they tend to in head to heads. It may be slow if Griezmann is absent through suspension.
ITALIAN SERIA A
17:00 - Benevento v Bologna - 2.78 Benevento
- The market is emphatic 'we haven't got a clue'. And as I keep repeating, we really cannot judge these newly promoted sides until we see how they cope with 7+ matches under their belts.
- Promoted teams have had +2.5 goals in 53% of home matches against bottom-six teams since 2012-13.
- Bologna have won 3/5 away matches against promoted teams.
- Benevento took the lead v Sampdoria but lost 2-1. 1-1 for Bologna.
- Both of these sides saw 1-1 draws at halftime in their openers.
17:00 - Genoa v Juventus - 1.46 Juventus
- Genoa won 3-1 the last time Juve visited.
- Juventus have won 8/9 away matches against bottom-six teams and they have won by two or more goals in 5/8 such matches.
- Genoa have drawn the first half in 7/11 home matches against top-six teams.
- Relegation fight for Genoa last season but they were robust at home. They lost only 2 at home v top 9 last season.
- Juve's only loss v 9th and lower was v Genoa.
- An intriguing match as Genoa pretty much saved their season with their home form.
19:45 - Roma v Inter - 2.38 Roma
- Both teams have scored in the last 3 head to heads. Roma won the last 2.
- Roma have won 17/20 home matches while Inter Milan have lost 7/11 away matches against top-six teams.
- There have been +2.5 goals in 8/11 Inter Milan away matches against top-six teams.
- 0-1 Roma win away v Atalanta and 3-0 Inter at home to fiorentina in their openers.
- I get the distinct impression that this is a better Inter Milan side than last year. Not sure why, maybe from their performances pre-season in the International Champions Cup.
- Yes, it is a money-sucking endeavour but solid performances from Inter.
- I do think they may surprise. So watch out for that in this match. 3 £20+ million signings for Inter signals their intent.
- Salah the most high profile absentee for Roma.
15:00 - Burton v Sheff Wed - 2.04 Sheff Wed
- 3-1 Burton and 1-1 last 2 head to heads.
- Burton have conceded first in 7/10 home matches against middle-third teams while Sheffield Wed have scored first in 8/11 away matches.
- There have been -2.5 goals in 8/10 Sheffield Wed away matches.
- 3 losses and a win for Burton this season.
- 1-0 loss, 1-1, 1-1, 0-1 win Sheff Wed. Patterns already with them - don't concede that 2nd goal and don't score that 2nd goal yet.
- Burton were good in head to heads but are having a poor start this season. Based on only 4 matches, lay the first team to score? Based on Sheff Wed not scoring or conceding that 2nd goal yet.
15:00 - Ipswich v Fulham - 2.36 Fulham
- 1-1, 0-2 Fulham,3-1 Fulham
- Ipswich have scored first in 7/10 home matches while Fulham have conceded first in 6/8 away matches against top-six teams.
- Fulham have lost 10/14 away matches against top-six teams.
- Great start Ipswich this season. 4 wins out of 4.2-4-2 goals scored last 3 matches
- 3 draws and a 0-1 loss Fulham who has scored 1-1-0-0 this season. Really struggling for goals. And instantly , albeit over 4 matches, there is an inkling that the more confident Ipswich could simply outscore Fulham
15:00 - Birmingham v Reading - 2.22 Birmingham
- 0-0 and 0-1 Reading in the last 2 head to heads.
- Birmingham have lost 5/8 home matches against bottom-half teams while Reading have won 6/9 away matches against bottom-half teams.
- Reading have scored first in 5/9 away matches against bottom-half teams.
- 0-2-0-1 scored by Birmingham this season with just one win. 2-1 and 0-0 at home this season.
- Identical form from Reading. One win, 2 losses and a draw.
- 2 teams in mixed form and not a match that appeals until I see more matches.
15:00 - Sheff Utd v Derby - 2.66 Sheff Utd
- 0-1 Sheff Utd, 0-1 Derby, 0-1 Derby in the last 3 head to heads.
- Top-half promoted teams have had +2.5 goals in 60% of home matches against top-half teams since 2012-13.
- There have been +2.5 goals in 6/10 Derby away matches against promoted teams.
- Derby have scored first in 10/14 away matches against promoted teams.
- No draw yet from Sheff Utd who have won their home matches 1-0 and lost their away matches without scoring.
- 1-1 and 1-2 wins for Derby away so this should be as competitive as the market expects. Tough to call too. Home side good at home, away side good on travels.
15:00 - Cardiff v QPR - 1.85 Cardiff
- QPR are unbeaten in the last 6 head to heads.
- Cardiff have won 9/13 home matches while QPR have lost 8/11 away matches.
- Cardiff have scored first in 9/14 home matches.
- 1-3-2-2 goals scored by Cardiff in their 4 wins this season.
- Win, draw, loss, win for QPR. Wins came at home.
- I repeat, conclusions based on 4 matches only are a little presumptuous.
- QPR favoured in head to heads. Cardiff favoured on current form. Head to heads or recent form?
15:00 - Middlesbrough v Preston - 1.74 Middlesbrough
- Newly relegated Boro.
- Top-half relegated teams have scored first in 63% of home matches against top-half teams since 2012-13 while Preston have conceded first in 3/6 away matches against relegated teams.
- Top-half relegated teams have won 55% of home matches against top-half teams since 2012-13.
- Both sides have won their 2 home matches this season. 1-0-0-1 scored by Preston this season. They are yet to score away from home.
- Based on 4 matches, I could foresee a 0-0 for a while. Back 0-0 pre-match and trade out if lucky enough to see a 0-0 at halftime? Based on Preston not scoring away yet and Boro not conceding at home yet.
15:00 - Brentford v Wolves - 2.5 Brentford
- 3-1 and 1-2 Wolves last season. The market sees a tighter match today. New manager for Wolves.
- There have been +2.5 goals in 7/10 Brentford home matches against top-six teams and in 6/9 Wolves away matches against bottom-six teams.
- Brentford have lost 11/17 home matches against top-six teams.
- 3 losses and a 2-2 for Brentford who have conceded 4-2-2 goals in their last 3 matches.
- 3 wins and a 1-2 loss for Wolves this season.
- I am tentatively with the away side based largely on Brentford's consistent concession of 2 goals. Consider Wolves have scored 2 and 3 goals in their 2 away matches.
17:30 - Nottm Forest v Leeds - 2.58 Nottm
- The home side won the last 2 head to heads.
- Nottm Forest have won 6/8 home matches against top-six teams while Leeds have lost 11/17 away matches against top-six teams.
- Leeds have lost the first half in 6/9 away matches against top-six teams.
- 3 wins and a loss for Forest plays 2 wins and 2 0-0's for Leeds.
- The Leeds wins came away, scoring 3 and 2 goals. Forest have won their 2 home matches.
- The market cannot split these 2 and I am not going to even try predicting this without the use of in-play stats.
FRENCH LIGUE 1
16:15 - Nantes v Lyon - 2.1 Lyon
- Lyon tend to win head to heads rather comfortably. Their odds are a little tentative today.
- There have been +2.5 goals in 9/12 Lyon away matches and +3.5 goals in 6/9 Lyon away matches against bottom-six teams.
- Nantes have scored first in 8/12 home matches.
- 3 matches into the season and Nantes has scored 0-0-1 goals. When they scored they won.
- 4-2-3 goals scored by Lyon this season. Even this early on, Lyon look good in attack 5 of their goals were scored 2nd half which suggests that any 0-0 at halftime can be layed 2nd half.
- Nantes only won 1 match home and away v top 9 teams last season so may struggle v Lyon, who finish 4th last season.
19:00 - Amiens v Nice - 2.37 Nice
- No head to heads. Amiens are newly promoted.
- Bottom-six promoted teams have had -2.5 goals in 58% of home matches against middle-third teams since 2012-13.
- There have been -2.5 goals in 13/20 Nice away matches.
- Nice have conceded first in 9/11 away matches.
- Only 3 losses for Nice away last season and 4 all season Away from home for Nice v the bottom 5 saw 4 1-0 scorelines and a 1-1.
- As ever, we simply have nothing on Amiens.
- Amiens are yet to score this season in 3 defeats, conceding 2 goals at least in each match.
- 2 losses and a win for Nice.
- Amiens are struggling. Surely a side with only 4 losses last season (albeit 2 already this season) will be keen to get another win/draw? I am tentatively with Nice.
19:00 - Caen v Metz - 1.75 Caen
- 3-0 Metz and 2-2 in the last 2 head to heads.
- There have been -2.5 goals in 6/10 SM Caen home matches and they have drawn the first half in 10/20 home matches.
- Metz have conceded first in 10/13 away matches.
- 2 1-0 losses and a 0-2 win for Caen this season. 3 consecutive losses for Metz.
- Little to work with currently.
19:00 - Bordeaux v ESTAC Troyes - 1.5 Bordeaux
- Last head to head was April 2016.
- There have been -2.5 goals in 7/11 Bordeaux home matches.
- Top-half promoted teams have had -2.5 goals in 63% of away matches against top-six teams since 2012-13.
- Bordeaux have scored first in 7/10 home matches against promoted teams.
- There may be some patterns emerging, albeit only 3 goals.2-2-3 goals scored by Bordeaux so far this season. 2-2 and 3-3 draws too! A case of the 'Liverpools' for Bordeaux.
- 1-1, 1-2 win, 0-1 loss so far for Troyes.
- I suspect this could be a case of Bordeaux outscoring Troyes today.
19:00 - Toulouse v Rennes - 2.3 Toulouse
- 2 Rennes wins and a 0-0 in the last 3 head to heads.
- There have been -2.5 goals in 6/9 Toulouse home matches against bottom-six teams and in 11/12 Rennes away matches.
- Rennes have conceded first in 16/20 away matches.
- Both teams have scored in Rennes 3 matches, without Rennes winning! Is this an angle into the match? And on this occasion, in favour of Rennes (at least from head to heads).
- Toulouse has had a tough start, losing to Monaco and Paris St Germain and beating Montpellier.
- With both teams continue to score in a Rennes match? Only 3 matches to go by though.
19:00 - Dijon v Montpellier - 2.5 Dijon
- 1-1, 3-3, 1-1 in the last 3 head to heads. Is this an angle in? Lay the late score draw. The longer the sequence, the nearer the sequence is to ending.
- Montpellier have lost 11/13 away matches and they have conceded first in 12/15 away matches.
- Dijon have drawn the first half in 8/11 home matches.
- No win yet for Dijon who must(ard) be concerned, conceding 3-4-2 goals in their 3 matches, most recently a 2-2 draw.
- Montpellier 1-0 win, 1-0 loss and 1-1 draw. All under 2.5 goals in stark contrast with Dijon.
- I prefer congruity in my matches. As I say, if there is a score draw, I will look to lay said score draw in the hope that the head to head sequence ends.
17:30 - Vitesse v AZ Alkmaar - 2.25 Vitesse
- Vitesse scored 2 goals in each of the last 3 head to heads, winning the last 2 matches.
- There have been +2.5 goals in 10/13 Vit. Arnhem home matches and in 8/8 AZ Alkmaar away matches against top-six teams.
- AZ Alkmaar have lost by two or more goals in 6/11 away matches against top-six teams.
- 2 Vitesse wins this season saw both teams score. A 3-2 loss v PSV and a 2-0 win for AZ this season.
- Vitesse look full of goals and with a history of scoring 2 goals v AZ, I would be keen for AZ to score first so I could lay them.
18:45 - Zwolle v Twente - 2.05 Zwolle
- 2-1 Twente, 2-2 and 1-2 Twente in the last 3 head to heads. Will both teams continue to score today?
- Twente have lost 11/12 away matches against top-six teams and they have lost by two or more goals in 11/13 such matches.
- There have been +2.5 goals in 8/11 Zwolle home matches.
18:45 - ADO Den Haag v Heerenveen - 2.37 Heerenveen
- 0-3 and 2-0 Heerenveen in the last 2 head to heads.
- Den Haag have conceded first in 9/17 home matches while Heerenveen have won 7/11 away matches against bottom-six teams.
- Heerenveen have scored first in 6/11 away matches against bottom-six teams.
- 2 defeats without scoring for ADO Den Haag and 2 score draws for Heerenveen. Both teams will be keen on that win.
- On head to head form, Heerenveen are favoured today but the market is not especially confident.
18:45 - Heracles v Excelsior - 2.2 Heracles
- In 6 of the last 7 matches, at least one team has scored at least 3 goals in head to heads. Will this continue today?
- There have been +2.5 goals in 10/11 H Almelo home matches and in 8/13 Excelsior away matches.
- Excelsior have drawn 5/10 away matches against top half non-Big Two teams.
- Both teams have scored in Heracles last 2 matches without them losing.
- Excelsior beat Willem II 1-2 and lost 0-1 v Feyenoord.
- Given the head to heads, this is a match where I will express an interest in if there is a 0-0 at halftime. I would expect 2nd half goals if there are none first half.
SCOTTISH PREMIER LEAGUE
15:00 - Partick v Aberdeen - 1.67 Aberdeen
- 6 consecutive Aberdeen wins in head to heads. 3 consecutive clean sheets now for Aberdeen in head to heads.
- There have been +2.5 goals in 6/9 Partick Th. home matches against top half non-Big One teams and in 9/11 Aberdeen away matches against bottom-six teams.
- Aberdeen have won 9/12 away matches against bottom-six teams.
- Partick has lost their 3 matches but only lost 1-0 v St Johnstone and Celtic. There is a suggestion that Partick set themselves up as being tough to beat but do eventually capitulate.
- Aberdeen have 3 consecutive wins.2 2-1 wins now.
- On all known form (and I repeat that only 3 matches is too small a sample) Aberdeen should remain unbeaten. Partick may actually put up some firm resistance but Aberdeen eventually score.
- That will be my blueprint. If 0-0 at halftime, that would not surprise. I would then look for an Aberdeen 2nd half goal.
15:00 - Celtic v St Johnstone - 1.18 Celtic
- 9 goals in 2 head to heads for Celtic. Is this another 'like shelling peas' match for the Bhoys in what looks a totally uncompetitive league for them?
- Both sides have won their 3 opening matches this season.
- Celtic have won 18/20 home matches while St Johnstone have lost 7/8 away matches against Big One teams.
- St Johnstone have lost by two or more goals in 5/8 away matches against Big One teams.
- St Johnstone has scored an 89th and 90th minute goal this season.Celtic's last goal v Killy was an 88th minute goal.
- We may see some late action and that is to be noted particularly if the match is a stale mate.
- 1.18 odds suggests 3/4 goals from Celtic and a goal before halftime. If 0-0 after 30 mins then lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
15:00 - Motherwell v Hearts - 2.05 Hearts
- 3 consecutive 3 goal wins for Hearts in head to heads, yet they are only a touch over evens here. I would have thought that an expectation for another 3 goal win should see Hearts odds trading much shorter.
- 2 losses and a 2-0 win v Ross County for Motherwell. Ross were red carded and that influenced this match greatly.
- Hearts season has seen a tough start. 4-1 loss v Celtic.0-1 win v Kilmarnock and 0-0 v Rangers.
- Hearts met Celtic and Rangers and really were not expected to get much from these matches. It is a bit of a headscratcher why their odds are relatively high. Are Hearts weakened personnel wise?
15:00 - Kilmarnock v Hamilton - 2.5 Kilmarnock
- 1-1 Kilmarnock and 0-2 Kilmarnock in the last 2 head to heads.
- Kilmarnock have scored first in 6/11 home matches against top half non-Big One teams while Hamilton Ac have lost 10/13 away matches.
- Hamilton Ac have conceded first in 10/13 away matches.
- Only 1 goal scored by Kilmarnock in 3 defeats this season.
- Diddy David Hamilton lost to Aberdeen 2-0 (expected really) and beat Dundee FC 3-0 and 1-3 win v Hibernian.
- The market, it must be said, is wholly non-committal.
- Poor season for Kilmarnock but unbeaten in the last 2 head to heads.
RUSSIAN PREMIER LEAGUE
I have included these 2 matches in order to show you how the research will look once we have a good number of played matches to work with. As you can see below, patterns are already emerging. Tula concede 2 goals regularly. Will that continue? Perm have failed to score in 6 of their 7 matches. Rubin Kazan tend towards both teams scoring. All bar one of Lokomotiv's goals were scored in the second half (so you 0-0 2nd half layers take note). These little snippets of form are very useful to take into a live match.
13:00 - Arsenal Tula v Amkar - 2.52 Arsenal
- 0-1 Tula, 1-0 Tula and 0-0 last 3 head to heads.
- Both bottom 4 so far this season.
- Only 1 clean sheet.
- Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
- 2-2-2-2-1 goals conceded by Tula recently.
- Beat 14th 1-0 at home and play 16th today.
- All 4 home goals scored first half.
- 4 1-0 defeats, a 0-0 a 1-1 and a 3-0 defeat.
- Failed to score in 6 of their 7 matches this season.
- I would have to side with Tula. Although they are conceding 2 goals regularly, Amkar Perm do not seem able to even score.
- With Tula scoring in all 3 home matches so far, I would lay Perm if Perm somehow managed to score.
15:30 - Rubin Kazan v Tosno - 1.6 Rubin
- Both teams have scored in all bar their last match this season.
- 2 losses started the season but unbeaten in 5 now.
- 7 of 10 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
- Only 2 clean sheets came last 2 matches.
- 2 goals scored in each of their last 2 aways, both wins.
- 100% over 1.5 goals away.
- Take note of Rubin's strong both teams to score pattern and Tosno's scoring in their last 2 away matches.
- 100% over 1.5 goals for Tosno away suggests there should not be a 0-0 here. Lay any late 0-0 or any 2nd half 0-0.
18:00 - Lokomotiv v Ural - 1.51 Lokomotiv
- Lokomotiv are unbeaten in the last 5 head to heads.
- Only 1 loss came last home match.
- 1-0, 1-0, 1-0, 0-2 at home.
- No 0-0.
- 10 of 11 goals scored came 2nd half.
- 6 draws in an unbeaten season, 5 were score draws.
- Ural surely cannot keep score drawing so logic suggests laying any late 1-1 or 2-2 draw and hope this damaging sequence ends.
- Lokomotiv are strong 2nd half goal scorers so if they are losing at halftime, you may want to lay Ural in expectation of a Loko goal.
15:00 - AFC Utd v Hammarby - 1.82 Hammarby
- 4-0 Hammarby in the most recent head to head.
- This is 16th v 9th in the Swedish Allvenskan.
- AFC United have conceded first in 5/9 home matches while Hammarby IF have won 5/8 away matches against bottom-six teams.
- There have been -2.5 goals in 8/9 Hammarby IF away matches against bottom-six teams.
- Only 2 wins and amazingly beat Malmo 3-1 at home last match.
- Only 2 clean sheets.
- Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 home matches.
- Conceded in their last 10 matches.
- Only 3 clean sheets.
- Beat 11th and 15th away so AFC within their grasp?
- Only 1 away clean sheet.
- What is with AFC beating Malmo all of a sudden? I know Malmo had European Club competition commitments.
- I would, given AFC's history, look to lay AFC if AFC scored first. They tend to score and concede and have conceded in their last 10 matches.
- Hammarby have only 1 away clean sheet so a team as poor as AFC could even score.
SWISS SUPER LEAGUE
18:00 - Lugano v Thun - 2.46 Lugano
- Both teams have scored in the last 8 head to heads. The home side has tended not to lose recent head to heads.
- AC Lugano have won the first half in 7/11 home matches against middle-third teams and they have scored first in 7/11 such matches.
- There have been +2.5 goals in 8/10 Thun away matches.
- Only 1 clean sheet.
- Failed to score in their 2 home matches.
- No draw this season.
- 3 losses and 2 wins. Have suddenly scored 9 goals in 2 matches. Where did that come from?
- No 0-0 at halftime (only 5 matches though).
- I thought I would look at the Swiss Super League as 5 matches have been played.
- Given the amazing scoring of Thun last 2 matches, this match should not end 0-0.
- I would lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market, but delay to 15-20 minutes.
- Both teams tend to score. Tentatively lay Lugano if Lugano score first based only on Thun suddenly waking up.
18:00 - Lausanne v Grasshoppers Zurich - 2.3 Lausanne
- 0-0 and 1-1 last 2 head to heads.
- 3-3 draw and 4 losses now. 3-1-3-3-5 goals conceded in those 5 matches. The Liverpool FC school of defending.
- 2 goals scored in each of their last 2 matches with total goals in those 2 matches of 5 and 7.
- No 0-0 at halftime, in fact 3-1-2-2-4 goals before halftime.
- Loss, Loss, Draw, Loss, Win this season. 2-4-2-3-0 goals conceded. A sudden and welcome clean sheet win.
- Liverpool FC defensive coach has obviously been hired by both Lausanne and Grasshoppers. Big shock surely were this to end 0-0 ( albeit a recent head to head was 0-0.
- I would speculatvely back 2-2 here incase these 2 continue to concede 2+ goals readily.