Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

Cork City again delivered. Latch onto teams like this. HJK Helsinki below should be another. AFC United in Sweden another (this time oppose them as they are struggling). There will be no live chat today. I will be providing a week of predominantly French Open tennis coverage via Twitter @drtclub and I think that adequately compensates.
It is predominantly cup day, bar the Finnish and Swedish leagues. Cup Finals are guessing games and are the proverbial 'best on the day'. I do though see a strong Celtic side. Chelsea and Arsenal is a toughie. London Derby, Arsenal suddenly awakened from their slumbers and beating all in front of them... Barcelona for me are layable today without Esther Rantzen, sorry Luis Suarez who I think is red carded. Frankfurt have beaten Dortmund in 2 of the last 3 head to heads so Dortmund at 1.49 are far too short.
It is Finals day also in the tennis. Stan Wawrinka's match I could foresee a 3-setter. Kiki Bertens (to use her proper name lol) should win against an opponent lucky to reach the final (2 of her opponents retired), and Tsonga reaches another Final in France (he won the Marseille tournament) against a Berdych who must be delighted in finally beating a top 10 player in Milos Raonic - he usually struggles. Again I see tie breakers in this. I will try and tweet for the tennis @drtclub so find out times yourself.

13:00 - Lahti v HJK Helsinki - 1.63 HJK

  • 2-2 and 1-4 Lahti in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 6th v 1st in the Finnish Veikkausliiga.

Lahti

  • Failed to score only once.
  • 2 defeats in their last 3 matches.
  • 1-1-2-1-1-1-1-2 goals scored this season. When they have scored 2 goals they got the win.
  • Home loss came v 2nd.
  • Not conceded first half at home.

HJK Helsinki

  • 0-0 last match despite utter dominance. That was the only match HJK failed to score in.
  • 3 consecutive clean sheets, 2-1-0 scored in those 3 matches by HJK.
  • Last match was the only match without a goal before halftime.
  • Only loss was v 2nd.
  • Draws v 9th and 10th and a 0-1 v 11th away suggests HJK are yet to wake up away from home.

Conclusions

  • I do not expect a 0-0 today. I will lay any late 0-0. HJK are keeping clean sheets but that 0-0 last match saw them utterly dominant without scoring.
  • Lahti do rarely score that 2nd goal so if scoring first, I think are opposable on that basis.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market ? Yes 0-0 last match but HJK were so reliable pre halftime in the other matches.

13:00 - PS Kemi v VPS - 2.34 VPS

  • 1-4 VPS the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 11th v 3rd in the Finnish Veikkausliiga.

PS Kemi

  • 2 wins this season were 3-1, one last match.
  • That ended a run of 4 defeats in 5 matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Home losses v 1st and 2nd and play 3rd today.

VPS

  • A run of 6 matches unbeaten ended last match.
  • 3 wins in 4 away so comfortable on travels.
  • Only 1 clean sheet though.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Lost away to 1st in the league, comfortable in other matches away.

Conclusions

  • On form it is logical to side with VPS not to lose today.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • With both sides keeping a single clean sheet, we may see both teams scoring with VPS not losing.
  • Lay PS Kemi if Kemi scores first.

13:00 - HIFK v FC Inter - 2.68 FC Inter

  • 1-0 Inter and 0-0 in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 10th v 8th in the Finnish Veikkausliiga.

HIFK

  • Only 1 win was a 1-0.
  • 0-1-1-1-0 scored at home. Kept HJK to a 0-0 latest.
  • Not scored in both halves at home.
  • Not conceded in both halves.

FC Inter

  • A draw and 2 wins away now for FC Inter must see them favoured on form?
  • Failed to score only once and only one clean sheet does lend itself to both teams scoring.
  • Only 1 match with a 0-0 at halftime.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals away.
  • No 0-0.
  • Scored and conceded in 3 of 4 away - lost 2-1 away to 2nd and kept 1st to a 1-1.

Conclusions

  • A little early for ultra strong patterns to emerge.
  • HIFK have a strong defensive bent at home, their 0-0 with HJK, when HJK utterly dominated is a good example. But scoring 0-1-1-1-0 tells us to lay HIFK if HIFK score first.
  • Lay any late 0-0.

15:00 - RoPS v KuPS - 2.28 KuPS

  • 1-1 and 2-1 RoPS in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 7th v 2nd in the Finnish Veikkausliiga.

RoPS

  • No draw this season.
  • 3 consecutive home wins.
  • No 0-0 at halftime.
  • Not played top 2 yet but lost 2-4 at home to 3rd.
  • No 0-0.

KuPS

  • Only 2 defeats, one was v HJK.
  • A draw and 2 wins in their last 3 away, scoring 2 goals minimum.
  • No clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • All wins v 6th and lower, 3 were 2-1 wins and scored and conceded in each win.
  • Outside of 1st placed HJK, KuPS have scored 2 goals at least in away matches.

Conclusions

  • KuPS are favourites for me today.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Lay RoPS if RoPS score first as KuPS have shown they concede away but tend to score 2 goals in reply.
  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • This looks one of the more readable Finnish matches today.

15:00 - Kalmar FF v Sundsvall - 1.84 Kalmar

  • 2-0 Kalmar in the last head to head.
  • This is 15th v 12th in the Swedish Allsvenskan after 10 matches.

Kalmar

  • Only 1 win this season yet still favourites.
  • 7 defeats this season yet still favourites. Sundsvall playing with Abba in a midfield diamond?
  • Only 2 clean sheets, and one v Malmo. Very contrary.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • Have not beaten a top 11 side.
  • 2-0 home win v 14th and playing 12th today.

Sundsvall

  • Failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches. Not another Sundsvall 0-0?
  • 4 clean sheets in 5 matches.
  • 3 consecutive away 0-0's ended with a 0-2 win.
  • 5 consecutive under 2.5 goals away.
  • Have beaten teams 13th and 16th.

Conclusions

  • Sorry, I don't see how Kalmar are favourites. Sundsvall tend to park the Volvo bus.
  • Sundsvall have beaten teams 13th and 16th and kept 4 consecutive away clean sheets.
  • 0-0 is in play.
  • Kalmar did beat 14th 2-0 at home.
  • Back 0-0 pre match if you want and hope Sundsvall bring said Volvo and park it. I tend to trade out if 0-0 halftime.
  • 2-0/0-2 are possibles today. What do you think? Kalmar beat 14th 2-0, and Sundsvall with their clean sheetery beat 13th 0-2 away.

15:00 - Djurgardens v AFC Utd - 1.34 Djurgardens

  • No recent head to heads tells us AFC are newly promoted.
  • This is 6th v 16th in the Swedish Allsvenskan.

Djurgardens

  • 3 defeats this season, one came last match.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Losses at home v current 4th and 5th, wins at home v current 9th and 10th.

AFC United

  • No win.
  • 3 consecutive away defeats part of 4 losses and a draw away.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • No away 0-0.
  • Not played top 7 away yet.
  • Scored 2 goals in a match only once and that ended up 2-2.
  • 9 of 11 away goals conceded came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • If AFC cannot score 2 goals in an away match, lay them if they score first.
  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Watch out AFC first half might be spoilers but 9 goals conceded 2nd half away tells us they are likely to eventually concede.
  • This should be a Djurgardens win today.

15:00 - JJK v Ilves - 1.8 Ilves

  • 0-1 Ilves in the last head to head.
  • This is 12th v 4th in the Finnish Veikkausliiga.

JJK

  • No win.
  • 4 consecutive defeats.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • 3 consecutive home defeats, both teams scored and all over 2.5 goals.
  • Only scored 2 goals once and lost 5-2.
  • 9 of 11 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Ilves

  • All 3 defeats were 2-0.
  • 2 losses in their last 3 matches.
  • 3 wins in 4 away matches.
  • Only away loss v 1st and beat 2nd, 3rd and 4th away.

Conclusions

  • JJK are highly likely to concede so note that if 0-0 of if they lead.
  • Ilves strong away form should see them as shorter priced favourites for me. If they can beat 2nd, 3rd and 4th away, they can beat 12th away.
  • JJK have only scored 2 goals once this season so if scoring, are unlikely to get that 2nd.
  • JJK home defeats saw both teams scoring so note that too.

 15:00 - Celtic v Aberdeen - 1.49 Celtic

  • The Scottish Cup Final. Celtic have won the last 6 head to heads and in the League Cup beat Aberdeen 0-3.
  • Celtic beat Aberdeen 1-3 most recently at Aberdeen.
  • This Final is being held in Hampden Park, Glasgow. You might as well call it a home game for Celtic.
  • Again how to research? Only head to heads really.
  • Celtic must be favoured today. They have been winning matches even with the League Title in the bag, and that is a good attitude to have.
  • Let's hope Aberdeen score first.

17:00 - Atalanta v Chievo - 1.3 Atalanta

  • 2 consecutive Atalanta wins in head to heads, latterly 1-4 and away from home.
  • This is 5th v 14th in Italian Seria A on the last day of the season.
  • Atalanta will finish 5th guaranteed and have a chance of 4th place with a loss or draw for Lazio and a win for Atalanta.
  • I believe Atalanta are locked in the Europa League place guaranteed.
  • Chievo have nothing to play for. Safe as houses.

Atalanta

  • Only 2 losses in 2017 came away from home.
  • 5 draws in their last 7 matches - thank goodness this leaking of points has not cost them a place in the Europa League.
  • Those draws were score draws.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches. That ended last match.
  • 3 draws in 4 at home for Atalanta.
  • No 0-0 at halftime in 10 matches.
  • No defeat in 10 at home.
  • 6 wins and a 0-1 loss at home v 13th and lower.
  • 15 goals scored last half hour of home matches.

Chievo

  • Scored and conceded last 5 matches.
  • Only 1 win in 9 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 9 matches overall and last 7 away matches.
  • No draw away v top 9 as they lost 7 and beat Lazio 0-1.

Conclusions

  • Even though Atalanta may concede, they should not lose. Questionable motivation as they are guaranteed 5th place and Europa league football regardless.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market and hope Atalanta continue their pattern of the last 10 matches.
  • Lay Chievo if Chievo score first given the score draws Atalanta collect recently.

17:00 - Bologna v Juventus - 1.88 Juventus

  • Juventus are Champions. The Champions have a Champions League Final on the 3rd June.
  • I would be laying any Juventus lead today. They are likely to bring in a secondary squad today.
  • Said secondary squad may still be good enough to beat Bologna but if a smattering of first team players are still selected you can bet your bottom dollar that they will not be going in for any 50/50 challenges.
  • All in all, Champions have shown a tendency to slacken off after winning the title.

17:00 - Norrkoping v Halmstads - 1.38 Norrkoping

  • 13 goals scored by Norrkoping in the last 3 head to heads.
  • This is 2nd v 14th in the Swedish Allsvenskan.

Norrkoping

  • 5 wins and 2 draws last 7 matches.
  • Only 1 home defeat.
  • 3 consecutive wins.
  • Scored 2 goals at least in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • Not conceded in both halves at home.

Halmstads

  • Only 1 win came 1st match of the season.
  • Not won away.
  • 2-0-2-2 conceded away.
  • Not led at halftime away.
  • Losses to all top 4 this season.

Conclusions

  • Norrkoping should be scoring at least 2 goals today in victory. Let that be the angle.
  • Hamstads have not led at halftime so if scoring first and early, lay them in the halftime market.

17:30 - Arsenal v Chelsea - 1.79 Chelsea

  • The market is emphatic in this FA Cup Final. Chelsea are odds on.
  • 7 wins in 8 matches for Arsenal shows you what they can do when motivated. The fact remains that in the season's league football, Arsenal failed to beat any of the top 4 in 7 of 8 matches. They did intriguingly beat Chelsea 3-0.
  • 8 wins in 9 matches for Chelsea saw them end the season on a high.
  • I am afraid there are no other angles for me into this FA Cup Final. It could be a goal fest, or it could be a nervy 1-0/0-1.
  • The in-play stats will reveal all.

19:00 - Frankfurt v Dortmund - 1.49 Dortmund

  • This is the DFP Pokal, the German Cup Final.
  • This should be an interesting Final, what with Frankfurt winning 2 of the last 3 head to heads. The Frankfurt league wins tended to be one-goal-in-it wins.
  • Frankfurt reached the Final scoring 1-0-2-1-1 goals and winning 3 of those matches on penalties. They conceded 1-0-1-0-1 goals in the Cup.
  • Dortmund reached the Final through 2 home extra time and penalty matches, a 0-3 away at Lotte and a 2-3 v Bayern Munich.
  • Both teams ended the season with goal-laden matches. Frankfurt drew 2-2 in a dead rubber with Leipzig. Dortmund beat Werder Bremen 4-3 in a very tradeable match.

Conclusions

  • This may be tighter than the odds might suggest. Frankfurt have kept things tight in the Cup and know that they can beat Dortmund. Value? Lay Dortmund if Dortmund score first given Frankfurt have won 2 of the last 3 head to heads.

20:00 - Angers v PSG - 1.2 PSG

  • 2 consecutive 0-2 wins for PSG in head to heads.
  • This is the Coupe De France Final.
  • It is a pretty straightforward match to research. We should expect a PSG win today.
  • 5 consecutive clean sheets for PSG in the Coupe de France.
  • Angers ended the season in the league with 2 consecutive 2-0 wins, including against Nice.

Conclusions

  • A simple case of 'play it by ear' or via the in-play stats (free stats at www.williamhill.com).
  • Head to heads point to a comfortable enough evening for PSG with 2-0 the template for them.

20:30 - Barcelona v Alaves - 1.17 Barcelona

  • Brilliant Barcelona ended the season with a greatly tradable match v Eibar. More today please in the Spanish Cup Final.
  • 0-6 Barcelona the last time these 2 met is in fitting with a 1.17 odds quote today.
  • Luis Suarez is out for Barcelona as is Sergio Roberto.
  • Alaves have played the 2-legged format well in the Copa Del Rey. 0-2, 0-0, 0-0, 1-0 in their last 4 matches.
  • This is the Final though and not over 2 legs.
  • 4 consecutive clean sheets for Alaves albeit against Alcorcon and Celta. Not quite the top 3 in Spanish Primera Liga.
  • Barcelona scored and conceded in 5 of their 6 Copa Del Rey matches and of course always seem to outscore the opposition.
  • In 4 of those matches, missing Suarez scored at least one goal.

Conclusions

  • 1.06 Barcelona were 0-2 down to Eibar, at home and still won. I got 9/1 about any other home score. So do not immediately dismiss this as a done deal today.
  • Let's hope for some fireworks today. Alaves are not known for their scoring alas. But then neither were Eibar.
  • We learned from the Eibar match to keep the faith in Barcelona!

TENNIS

ATP Lyon

Tomas Berdych v Jo-Wilfred Tsonga - 1.92 Berdych

  • 13th v 11th in the rankings immediately suggests that we lay the first set winner.
  • 9-4 Berdych in head to heads. In 2017, Berdych won in Doha in 2 sets and Tsonga won in Rotterdam in the semi finals in 2 sets.
  • Only 2 meetings on clay and shared there too.
  • Berdych very impressive in beating Milos Raonic, albeit in 2 tie breakers. If you read yesterday's research you know that head to heads were with Raonic. Berdych has tended to have a mental block with top 10 players and in beating Raonic this sets thunder thighs up well for the French Open.
  • 2 of Tsonga's 3 wins this tournament have been 3 setters. He has beaten 56th, 61st and 62nd in the rankings. So yet to play a top 15 player.
  • The withdrawal in Madrid was down to a shoulder injury.

Conclusions

  • I would lay Tsonga 2-0 set betting, and obviously you get better odds if he breaks Berdych in the first set. Berdych's win over Raonic in 2 tie breakers suggests improvement as he tends to lose to top 10 players.

WTA Nurnberg

Kiki Bertens v Barbora Krejcikova - 1.17 Kiki

  • 20th v 218th in the rankings in this Final pre-French Open.
  • Beefy is the obvious favourite here. She was lucky in respect of the fact Doi retired yesterday.
  • But Beefy has had an exemplary tournament and is yet to drop a set. She was close to dropping a set v Riske, we pounced laying Riske 2-0 and Beefy won the 1st set for a lovely trade.
  • I joked earlier this tournament that Barbora was doing a bit of voodoo on her opponents. She had 2 consecutive retirements. She lost the first set to Witthoeft (a superb trading match where I actually layed Barbora final set at 1.13 and Witthoeft fought back to 1.23 favouritism and still LOST the set). 3 set wins for Barbora in the quarter finals and semi-finals.

Conclusions

  • I must be with Beefy today. Barbora gave us a glimpse that she may freeze in the spotlights. As I relayed above, she traded at 1.13 odds final set before Witthoeft fought back to 1.23 favouritism then the market flipped again for Barbora to win the final set.
  • Bertens should win 2-0 but let's hope that Barbora HINTS at a set win as I would be keen to back Beefy at higher odds.

Geneva Open

Stan Wawrinka v Mischa Zverev - 1.28 Stan

  • 3rd v 35th in the world.
  • Interestingly Mischa beat Stanislas the Manislas in Basel in 2016 in 3 sets.
  • The real Stan seems to have shown up this week with home support to motivate.
  • A superb effort from Zverev to beat Nishikori in 3 sets. Still a profit. Zverev won first set, lost 2nd set.
  • Stan won in 2 sets in semi final -2nd set was a tie breaker.

Conclusions

  • This looks a 3 setter waiting in the wings - lay the first set winner? 4 3 setters in 5 matches for Zverev and beating good yardsticks like Isner and Nishikori.