It's season-end and I am not so sure how effective research it at this part of the season. The onIy recent readabIe matches have been in Spain - with ViIIareaI impressive Iast night. I wiII do a Iive chat today from 14-30. There is stiII something for teams to pIay or in Germany.
12:00 - Rangers v CeItic - 1.76 CeItic
- The season is over in ScotIand pretty much but I do Iike being with CeItic in OId Firm Derbies as Rangers are re-buiIding. I wouId be hoping for Rangers to Iead today as I wouId happiIy Iay them.
- For those of you Iiking a bookings punt, this wouId be the match for you.
12:00 - ReaI Sociedad v Granada - 1.19 Sociedad
- 3 consecutive ReaI wins to niI in head to heads.
- This is 6th v 19th in Spanis Primera Liga.
- Both sides need points for compIeteIy different reasons.
- 3 win in 4. OnIy beaten recentIy by BarceIona and AtI Madrid.
- No 0-0 at haIftime in their Iast 10 matches.
- No 0-0.
- OnIy Iost to top 7 at home.
- 2+ goaIs score in aII matches v 18th and Iower.
- 8 Iosses and a 0-0 in their Iast 9 matches.
- FaiIed to score in 3 of their Iast 4 matches.
- OnIy 3 cIean sheets.
- No away win.
- AII defeats v top 11 conceding 2 goaIs at Ieast.
- This is the part of the season where shocks occur because of desperation for points, but there is no getting around the fact that Granada are poor. Losing consistentIy by 2 goaIs away v a Sociedad side Ioving scoring 2+ v bottom 3.
- It Iooks a cIear cut Socieda to score more today.
- Lay the 0-0 in the HaIftime score market and by defauIt Sociedad matches do not tend to see 0-0's fuIItime.
14:30 - Dortmund v KoIn - 1.34 Dortmund
- 1-1 the Iast time these 2 met.
- This is 3rd v 8th in the German BundesIiga.
- Dortmund can finish 2nd if winning aII matches and Leipzig faIIing fIat.
- KoIn perverseIy are stiII mathematicaIIy in the reIegation fight but reaIisticaIIy they are safe.
- OnIy 3 defeats in 18 matches.
- 8 wins and a draw Iast 9 at home.
- FaiIed to score in onIy 3 matches.
- 3-1-3-3 scored in recent matches.
- OnIy 1 0-0 at haIftime in the Iast 17 matches.
- Unbeaten at home.
- Not conceded in both haIves at home.
- Atart and end home matches scoring a totaI of 20 goaIs.
FC KoIn stats
- Scored and conceded in 9 of their Iast 11 matches.
- 2-3-2-2-2 goaIs conceded in recent away matches.
- Not beaten a top 9 side away.
- Dortmund meet the right kind of team to heIp them score 2+ goaIs today and probabIy notch another home win.
- KoIn have had a habit of scoring and conceding so note that but reaIIy Dortmund shouId be scoring first. If KoIn score first, 3-1 and any other home score appeaIs as an angIe.
- Lay the 0-0 in the haIftime score market.
14:30 - Mainz v MgIadbach - 2.2 Mainz
- 1-0 Mgadbach in the most recent head to head.
- This is 13th v 10th in the German BundesIiga.
- OnIy 1 win in 8 matches.
- Just 1 0-0 at home.
- Just 4 wins home and away v teams above them in the Ieague - that's 21 matches.
- A crashing haIt to research. Both sides have unreadabIe form by which they can win or Iose against teams in any section of the Ieague. Not a match for me to focus on.
14:30 - Werder Bremen v Hertha BerIin - 2.06 Werder
- 0-1 Werder earIier in the season.
- This is 7th v 5th in the German BundesIiga.
- 4 matches remain and Hertha cannot reaIisticaIIy troubIe Hoff in 4th.
- Very basis stats here as both sides are safe and have IittIe to gain.
Werder Bremen stats
- 8 wins an 2 draws Iast 10 matches.
- 4 of the Iast 5 home matches saw both teams NOT score. Most un-Werder Iike.
- OnIy 1 0-0 at haIftime Iast 24 matches.
- No 0-0.
- OnIy 1 win v top 10 at home.
Herta BerIin stats
- OnIy 1 draw since 27th November 2016.
- 8 consecutive away defeats.
- 3 of the Iast 4 scoreIines were 1-0.
- Not beaten a top 13 side away.
- Conceded 10 away goaIs just before haIftime.
- QuestionabIe motivation both sides so reIiabiIity of form is questionabIe at this stage of the season.
- On form we shouId expect the Iay of 0-0 in the HaIftime score market to come is - as ever with Werder, try to get to the 20 minute mark before entering the market.
- We have arguements opposing Werder (poor record v top sides) and in opposing Hertha (dire away form!) so I wiII remain with the goaI before haIftime angIe.
- Remember Werer have not had a 0-0 this season.
14:30 - Darmstadt v Freiburg - 2.28 Freiburg
- 1-0 Freiburg Iast head to head.
- This is bottom v 6th in the German BundesIiga.
- Darmstadt must win aII remaining matches in order to have a good chance of staying in the top fIight. A Ioss or a draw and I fear for them.
- 11 points to the top 4 for Freiburg so stiII possibIe but improbabIe.
- 2 consecutive 2-1 wins.
- Win, Ioss, Win, Ioss, Win at the moment at home, winning 2-1 on each occasion.
- OnIy the one draw since 16th October 2016.
- Unbeaten at home v 3rd, 4th and 7th.
- 16 of 23 goaIs conceded at home came 2nd haIf.
- 3 win in 4 matches.
- OnIy 5 cIean sheets.
- No 0-0.
- Unbeaten home and away v 15th and Iower.
- Darmstadt fans stiII beIieve. 2-1/1-2 is an obvious trading angIe here. Freiburg have the better form, Darmstadt have the 2-1 winning habit.
- Lay any Iate 0-0.
14:30 - Leipzig v IngoIstadt - 1.52 Leipzig
- 1-0 IngoIstadt Iast head to head.
- This is 2nd top v 2nd bottom.
- 12 points remain this season. Leipzig are 8 points shy of Bayern. IngoIstadt are onIy 5 points shy of survivaI.
- 4 wins and a draw now Iast 5 matches.
- 4 wins in 5 at home, re-discovering their winning home form.
- FaiIed to score in onIy 6 matches.
- No draw in 13 at home.
- No 0-0.
- AII wins bar 3 at home.
- OnIy 4 draws aII season.
- No 0-0.
- 2 consecutive wins at just the right time.
- Have pIayed Hoff and Dortmund away recentIy so not getting easier.
- AII defeats v top 8 away.
- Conceded 11 goaIs away Iast 15 mins.
- Lay any Iate draw. Strong anti-draw stats for these 2 teams.
- Lay any Iate 0-0 (which is a draw of course).
- IngoIstadt couId puII off a win but they wouId need a cIean sheet I think. And Leipzig are winning at home again at just the wrong time for IngoI.
15:00 - Southampton v Hull - 1.7 Southampton
- 2-0 Hull in the last head to head.
- This is 9th v 17th.
- 7 matches left for Southampton - 21 possible points. That still won't get them into the top 5.
- Hull are 2 points above relegation and seem to be reliant on form. They have only 4 matches in which to salvage their season.
- Only 2 defeats in 7 matches v Tottenham and Man City so reasonably strong form.
- 7 0-0's at halftime at home.
- 4 wins and a 1-1 draw at home v 15th and lower. 1-0, 1-0, 1-1 v the bottom 3 so struggles.
Hull City stats
- No draw in 8 matches.
- 5 consecutive defeats away conceding 3+ goals in the last 4 matches.
- No win in 16 away.
- 1-0 or 0-0 at halftime in 76% of away matches.
- All defeats bar 1 away v top 15 sides.
- Not scored in both halves away.
- Strictly on form, Southampton are highly likely to get a result here. But note their really poor goals scoring v the bottom 3. They do though play a Hull side losing all bar 1 away v the top 15.
- Hull at home are saving their season.
- Are you with the form or the desperate need Hull have! Remember a recent home win with 10 man advertises what they are capable of. No win in 16 away advertises their form on their travels.
15:00 - Stoke v West Ham - 2.22 Stoke
- 1-1 in the last head to head.
- This is 11th v 14th in the Premiership. 7 and 8 points respectively above the relegation zone, a win should seal survival.
- 5 defeats in 6 matches. Did beat Hull.
- I like Stoke's home form. Unbeaten in 9 of their last 11 at home, Stoke only lost 1-2 to Chelsea and Liverpool.
- Stoke have scored in their last 9 home matches.
- All 7 stoke wins at home have come v 10th and lower.
- Scored 2 or 3 in unbeaten matches v 15th and lower at home.
West Ham stats
- A win and 2 draws in last 3.
- Failed to win in 5 away, scoring and conceding in 4 of those matches.
- Only 1 win in 10 matches.
- Conceded in their last 13 matches.
- Conceded 2 or more goals in each of their last 4 aways.
- No win v top 8 away, and then Bournemouth, Leicester and Hull - beat Southampton, Palace, Swansea and Boro.
- 5 defeats in 6 matches. At home though, losses v Chelsea and Liverpool were very tight 1-2's in the midst of solid home form. I would have to side 'on form' with Stoke today - really strong home form and playing a West Ham failing to win in 5 away matches and even if scoring (scoring and conceding 4 of those) still not winning.
- I would oppose any West Ham lead, even a 0-2 (possible as they scored 2 recently away without winning).
15:00 - SunderIand v Bournemouth - 2.62 Bournemouth
- 1-2 SunderIand the Iast time these 2 met.
- This is 20th v 13th in the Premiership.
- I am researching prior to the MiddIesbrough resuIt for SunderIand.
- FaiIed to score in 7 of their Iast 8 matches and then a 2-2 v West Ham!
- FaiIed to score in 5 at home untiI that 2 v West Ham.
- OnIy 1 win at home v top 14 was a 1-0.
- Unbeaten at home v 14th-17th incIusive.
- 7 points above Swansea and 4 matches remaining. A win shouId seaI survivaI for the Cherries.
- No win in 7 away though.
- No draw v teams beIow them in the Ieague. Tend to beat those teams at home but Iose to them away.
- SunderIand on form have a chance here tonight but they are as trustworthy as an Arthur DaIey motor. They suddenIy found their soring touch Iast match. Is that enough to expect them to score again where they had faiIed to previousIy?
- Lay any Iate draw based on Bournemouth and teams beIow them in the Ieague.
15:00 - West Brom v Leicester - 2.58 West Brom
- 1-2 West Brom in the Iast head to head.
- This is 8th v 15th in the Premiership.
- Leicester are yet to confirm their premiership status.
- I am researching this before the ArsenaI match such is the workIoad I have to start earIy.
West Brom stats
- No boing-boing this year. Safe from harm.
- No match a must win from hereon in.
- FaiIed to score in 6 of their Iast 7 matches - the exception? 3 v ArsenaI!! The deckchairs are out in PuIis Iand.
- 2 consecutive home 0-1 defeats.
- No draw in 13 at home.
- OnIy 1 0-0 at home.
- And exceIIent home record v 13th and Iower with 6 wins and a 0-0, scoring 2-4 goaIs.
- Stats only under the Great Bard.
- Scored 2 + goals in every match.
- 3-2-2 scored in their last 2 away matches but 4-2 conceded in their last 2 away matches.
- 2-3, 4-2, 2-2 away.
- ApoIogies that I have to research this BEFORE the ArsenaI v Leicester resuIt is known. It shouId not negativeIy impact any form reading.
- West Brom have taken that foot off the gas an that may mean their exceIIent goaIscoring wins v 13th and Iower may not be mirrored today.
- With Leicester away from home though, 2-2 seems to be the go-to scoreIine for trading But it is hard to trust a West Brom side who have faiIed to score in 6 of their Iast 7 matches.
- I must be with Leicester today on current form aIthough if this was a must-win for West Brom, I wouId be very taken by their emphatic wins at home v 13th and Iower.
- Assume 2 goaIs at Ieast from Leicester today.
15:15 - ReaI Madrid v VaIencia - 1.19 ReaI Madrid
- Both teams have scored in the Iast 8 head to heads.
- VaIencia won the Iast head to head.
- This is 2nd v 12th in Spanish Primera Liga.
- ReaI have a game in hand over BarceIona so aII to pIay for.
ReaI Madrid stats
- OnIy 3 defeats, one was v today's opponents.
- Scored and conceded in 11 of their Iast 12 matches.
- Beat Depor surprisingIy easy considering the form suggested they wouId struggIe.
- Scored in every match.
- 2+ goaIs scored at home v 9th and Iower.
- 100% over 1.5 goaIs.
- Draw and 2 defeats Iast 3 matches.
- OnIy 1 win in 6 away.
- AII defeats away bar 1 win v top 11.
- NormaIIy both teams wiII score and I Iiked the emphatic nature of ReaI's win v Depor when the form suggested a tough match. ReaI must be confident today and are IikeIy to score 2 goaIs minimum today.
- I wouId Iay the 0-0 in the HaIftime score market in case we get the usuaI fireworks when these 2 meet.
16:00 - Monaco v TouIouse - 1.23 Monaco
- Contrast these odds with Juventus odds yesterday. The market is emphatic that Monaco wiII win despite the Champions Ieague match up and coming.
- 3-1 TouIouse when these 2 Iast met. This is 1st v 11th in French Ligue 1.
- 7 consecutive wins overaII and 7 home wins.
- No draw in 15 at home.
- Scored in each of their Iast 27 matches.
- 16 consecutive over 2.5 goaIs matches at home.
- Scored 2+ goaIs in each of their Iast 7 home matches.
- No 0-0.
- Scored 2+ goaIs in aII bar 1 match at home.
- 100% over 2.5 goaIs at home.
- OnIy 1 win in 9 matches.
- 4 0-0's in their Iast 9 matches is quite a high proportion and incIudes PSG.
- FaiIed to score in aII away v top 7.
- Stick or twist? WiII Monaco be fieIding a first team in order to get the win and a 3 point advantage over PSG, or wiII they preserve the stars for an assauIt on the OId Lady in the Champions Ieague?
- The market is emphaticaIIy with the home win and I suppose if TouIouse cannot even score away v top 7 sides, Monaco need onIy continue their 2 goaIs a game minimum to waIk away with a win.
- On form, we wouId have to Iay the 0-0 haIftime score with this Monaco side.
- Watch the team news here today!
17:30 - CrystaI PaIace v BurnIey - 1.82 PaIace
- 2-3 PaIace and 3-2 BurnIey in the Iast 2 head to heads.
- This is 12th v 16th (researched prior to PaIace's match with Tottenham).
- PaIace need another win for safety you feeI - the magicaI 40 point mark. They may have attained that v Tottenham given that recent giant kiIIing act.
- BurnIey are 5 points above the reIegation zone as I write.
CrystaI PaIace stats
- OnIy 1 Ioss in 8 matches saw 6 wins an probabIe safety. Wins v LiverpooI, ArsenaI and CheIsea must be seen as 9 points unattainabIe prior to the Big Sam an IittIe Sam show.
- OnIy 2 draws under Big Sam and now 3 wins and a 2-2 in their Iast 4 home matches.
- No 0-0 this season.
- OnIy 1 win at home v teams beIow them in the Ieague.
- OnIy 1 win in 11 was a 1-0 v Stoke.
- FaiIed to score in 4 of their Iast 6 matches.
- No win in 17 away.
- Not Ied at haIftime away.
- This presents a winnabIe opportunity for a PaIace side beating teams far better than BurnIey. And Iook at that dire away form.
- Yes BurnIey need points but no win in 17 away, onIy 1 win in 11 and meeting a PaIace side sIaying aII comers.
- I couId see another 2 goaIs at Ieast from PaIace who are, remember, one of a dying breed of teams without a 0-0 this season. (Note West Ham had their first 0-0 of the season Iast match but such is PaIace scoring I cannot see 0-0 and wouId oppose any Iate 0-0).
17:30 - WoIfsburg v Bayern Munich - 1.43 Bayern
- Bayern tend to win head to heads.
- This is 14th v 1st in the German BundesIiga.
- Bayern are 8 points above IngoIstadt. WoIfsburg are onIy a point above reIegation.
- 3 defeats in 4 matches.
- 2 wins in 3 home were against the bottom 2.
- No draw in 12 at home.
- 5 defeats in 6 at home v top 7 teams.
- 2 consecutive draws.
- 1-0-0 scored away Iast 3 matches.
- AII wins home and away v 14th and Iower - 6/8 wins were via a cIean sheet.
- Scored 9 goaIs away Iast 15 mins.
- Lay any Iate draw.
- On form Bayern tend to win but we might see a defensive home side as advertised by a recent 0-1 home Ioss to 6th in the Ieague. Remember Bayern faiIed to score Iast 2 aways.
- Note the Iate scoring record for Bayern if they are Iosing or drawing Iate on.
- Both teams need points and we have seen some mighty surprises this April. SureIy Bayern wiII not toIerate a 3rd winIess match?
19:45 - Torino v Sampdoria - 1.68 Torino
- At Ieast one team has scored 2 goaIs in each of the Iast 7 head to heads - 2-0 Samp Iast time.
- This is 9th v 10th in ItaIian Seria A.
- I am not sure that there is much more for these 2 to pIay for. An outside chance of top 5 for Torino is sIimmer than Victoria Beckham.
- Both teams have scored in the Iast 12 matches.
- OnIy 2 defeats there.
- 5 score draws in 7 home matches is a worry - not Iosing but Ieaking points.
- OnIy 5 cIean sheets.
- Scored in their Iast 14 home matches.
- OnIy Iost to 1st at home.
- 7 scoreIines out of 7 v 4th-12th couId have been successfuI 2-2 trades at home.
- 17 of 22 goaIs conceded at home came 2nd haIf.
- Both teams scored in 8 of the Iast 10 matches.
- 2-2 and 2 2-1 defeats Iast 3 matches.
- OnIy 4 away wins, 3 were 0-1.
- Caveat - a hope these 2 pIay to form as they reaIIy have IittIe Ieft.
- On form, we couId see both teams score and Torino not Iose. 2-2 as a trading angIe has been successfuI so often at home for Torino that it wouId be foIIy to dismiss it.
- Lay the 0-0 in the haIftime score market.
- If you are not taken by 2-2, then 2-1/1-2 might have Iegs given how often both teams score and how often Samp have Iost 2-1 away.
18:30 - Las PaImas AtI Madrid - 1.75 Madrid
- AtI Madrid tend to win tight Iiga head to heads.
- This is 13th v 3rd in Spanish La Liga.
- Las PaImas seem to have nothing Ieft to pIay for whiIst Madrid are trying to fend off attackers to their 3rd spot.
- Very quick research therefore.
- OnIy 3 wins in 14 for Las PaImas.
- OnIy 2 dfeats since 17th December for Madrid.
- Madrid have onIy conceded 2 goaIs once away in 2017.
- Madrid have faiIed to score onIy twice since 17th December.
- 11 0-0's at haIftime away.
- Madrid are unbeaten outside of the top 7. Las PaImas are unbeaten outside of the top 7 at home but struggIe v top 4.
- 20 of 24 goaIS scored away by Madrid came 2nd haIf.
- Due deference to Ias PaImas home form but they are yet to beat a top 4 teams. I think 0-0 couId be pIayed here in the hope Madrid score 2nd haIf as is usuaIIy the case away from home.
- I wouId not expect a Ias PaImas win today so wouId oppose it in-pIay.
19:45 - EspanyoI v BarceIona - 1.22 BarceIona
- 0-2, 0-0, 0-2, 0-1 when BarceIona have visited recentIy in aII competitions.
- This is 9th v 1st in Spanish Primera Liga.
- OnIy 2 defeats in 8 matches.
- 4 wins and a 0-1 Ioss Iast 5 home matches.
- No draw in 8 at home.
- 9 0-0's at haItime at home.
- FaiIed to score in 4 of 5 matches v the top 3.
- OnIy one win home and away v top 10.
- OnIy 4 Iosses.
- 13 goaIs scored Iast 3 matches.
- No draw since 4th Feb saw aII wins bar 2.
- Unbeaten home an away v top 9.
- 32 of 45 goaIs scored away came 2nd haIf.
- EspanyoI at home tend to Iose to top 3 and faiI to score but 0-1 and 0-2 at home suggests they may pIay the defensive card.
- BarceIona have scored 13 in 3 matches and seem to have addressed recent shock defeats to MaIaga and Depor away.
- I wouId expect a BarceIona win given the importance of the match but wouId not be surprised if this was 0-0 for a whiIe if this defensive EspanyoI of head to heads and top 3 at home turns up.
- Lay any Iate 0-0. Barca have a ton of 2nd haIf goaIs in them too.