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DRT Daily Tips Bulletin, December 2, 2017

See you at 14:30 for a live chat today to cover the German Bundesliga. Please remember it is pre-Champions League and pre-Europa League. Shortlist at the DRT Facebook page of matches which catch the eye. Eye-catching stats are in bold below.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

12:30 - Chelsea v Newcastle - 1.23 Chelsea

  • Chelsea are pre-Champions League this match.
  • Chelsea tend to win pre-Champions League albeit in unspectacular wins. They did lost 2-1 to Crystal Palace pre-Champions League. Generally speaking though Chelsea do not seem to have the 'curse of the Champions League'.

Chelsea

  • Utterly dominant v Swansea despite the 1-0 scoreline mid week.
  • 3 consecutive home wins now. 2 consecutive 1-0 home wins.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home. As I said mid week, Chelsea have led at halftime at home only once.
  • All wins home and away bar 1 v teams 7th and lower.
  • 7 of 10 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Newcastle

  • Only 4 wins.
  • 4 losses and a draw last 5 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.
  • No win in 5 away.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 3 matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Not beaten a top 15 side home or away.
  • 8 of 11 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Pre-Champions League Chelsea have tended to win, and away. Their loss to Palace was pre-Champions League.
  • They were excellent mid week despite a 1-0 scoreline and on form Newcastle do not seem to have the ammunition to cause Chelsea harm. No win v top 15 for Newcastle meets ALL wins bar 1 for Chelsea v teams 7th and lower.
  • Both sides have a relatively high % of 0-0's at halftime so this may be a second half goals match. I will take my cues from inplay stats as I did mid week. We must note an increased fixture list for the likes of Chelsea may see a change in players today. A hope that does not spoil the flow. They should eye the win with a 2nd half goal or 2 if 0-0 at halftime.

15:00 - Brighton v Liverpool - 1.57 Liverpool

  • Similar odds for Liverpool away v Stoke mid week and they were emphatic.

Brighton (10th)

  • Only 1 loss in 7 was a 1-0 loss to Man Utd.
  • Unbeaten in 6 at home, and 4 consecutive score draws.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Only led once at halftime at home.
  • Only played one of the top 9 at home, a 0-2 loss v Man City.
  • Not scored v top 9.
  • 6 of 8 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Liverpool (5th)

  • 4 wins and a draw v Chelsea in the last 5 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • 3-4-3-1-3 goals scored in recent matches.
  • 3-1-1-4-3 goals scored in away matches.
  • No 0-0 away and no 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 8th and lower.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals away.
  • 7 goals scored away within the 16th-30th minutes.
  • Salah is by far the highest scorer away so the ideal is for him to play today.

Conclusions

  • 4 consecutive score draws at home suggests Brighton will be vulnerable if they score first. We know all about Liverpool's capabilities in front of goal.
  • 1.57 odds were the same as we saw v Stoke and Liverpool were emphatic.
  • Liverpool should remain unbeaten today. Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market in case Liverpool continue scoring heavily between the 16th-30th minutes away.

15:00 - Everton v Huddersfield - 1.81 Everton

  • This is a match not to research too thoroughly because of the new manager factor for Everton.
  • 2-2-2-4-0 goals conceded by Everton under Unsworth. 0-3-2-1-4 goals scored under Unsworth.
  • He does tend to have a gung ho 'we will try to score one more than you' attitude.
  • 6 losses in 8 matches for Huddersfield.
  • Tentatively side with Everton and their goalscoring. Huddersfield are coming off the back of a spanking at Arsenal and may react defensively.
  • An interesting match where it would not surprise were both teams to score.

15:00 - Watford v Tottenham - 1.81 Tottenham

  • Champions League upcoming for Tottenham.

Watford (8th)

  • 4 losses in 6 matches.
  • Only 1 draw in 11 matches was a 2-2.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Only 3 0-0's at halftime.
  • 2-0-2-2 goals scored at home recently.
  • Watford have scored 2 goals now in 11 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 2 of 3 defeats at home v top 2.

Tottenham (7th)

  • 3 consecutive away defeats now.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • No draw in 7 away.
  • Losses v 2nd, 4th and 9th away.

Conclusions

  • 2-3, 1-0 wins and then LOSS LOSS for Tottenham pre-Champions League.
  • Will Watford continue to score 2 goals? Prepare for that.
  • Tottenham are on a 3 match losing run away from home and were very poor against Leicester in their last away match.
  • Similar odds to today, are Tottenham at risk? That said, Watford did show struggles v the elite. They did score 2 goals against Man Utd albeit in a 2-4 loss.
  • Lay any late draw.

15:00 - Leicester v Burnley - 1.88 Leicester

  • 3-0 Leicester and 1-0 Burnley in the last 2 head to heads.

Leicester (9th)

  • Only 1 loss in 8 matches was v Man City.
  • 2-1-2-0-2 goals scored at home recently.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 7 matches.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • All defeats have come v the top 5.

Burnley (6th)

  • Only 3 losses, only 1 of which came away v Man City.
  • 4 wins in 5 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • No 0-0 away.
  • Lost only once at halftime away.
  • Only away loss v 1st.
  • 0-3-1-1-1-1-2 goals scored away.
  • Only scored 1 goal v 5th, 7th, 11th and 13th away.
  • 6 of 8 goals conceded away came 2nd half.
  • Scored first in 5/7 away.

Conclusions

  • These 2 are in good recent form and Leicester's recent home win v Tottenham reminds us that when the front 2 click, they are dangerous.
  • Burnley need to be wary scoring only that single goal (remaining unbeaten) v 5th-13th away.
  • If Burnley's away defence clicks, they should not lose but if Leicester score 2 goals again, I think Leicester are favoured. Their problem is they are scoring 2-1-2-0-2 - i.e. inconsistent with their 2 goals at home.

15:00 - Stoke v Swansea - 1.96 Stoke

  • Draw, Stoke, Swansea in the last 3 head to heads.

Stoke (16th)

  • Only 3 wins, 2 were 1-0 only. A chance today given Swansea are so poor.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in 9 of their last 11 matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Not played the bottom 4 at home.
  • Scored and conceded home and away in all bar 1 match v 9th and lower.
  • Not scored in the first half hour of matches at home.

Swansea (19th)

  • Only 2 wins.
  • 5 defeats in 6 matches.
  • Failed to score in 4 matches.
  • Failed to score in 4 of 5 away matches.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime away.

Conclusions

  • 2 poor teams and a match I may need inplay stats for. Formswise, Swansea tend not to score away but may be given a chance as Stoke have scored and conceded in the vast majority of their matches v bottom half teams.
  • Do not be surprised with a 0-0 at halftime. You may want to back 0-0 pre match. Stoke have yet to score at home in the first half hour of matches. Swansea have had 4 0-0's at halftime away.

17:30 - Arsenal v Man Utd - 2.56 Arsenal

  • I let these high profile 'derby' matches go. They are largely unreadable.

FRENCH LIGUE 1

19:00 - Lille v Toulouse - 2.14 Lille

  • 1-2 Toulouse and 1-1 in the last 2 head to heads.

Lille (18th)

  • Only 4 wins.
  • 3 wins in 5 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Unexpected win v Lyon away last match.
  • No 0-0 at halftime in 9 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Not played 14th and lower at home.
  • 6 of 8 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Toulouse (15th)

  • 3 losses in 4 matches.
  • Only 1 away win.
  • Scored and conceded in 3 of their last 4 matches without winning.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • 1-1 and 0-1 v teams below them away.

Conclusions

  • Unknown Lille v teams 14th and lower but they should be boosted by an impressive win v Lyon.
  • With only 1 away win for Toulouse and 3 wins in 5 for Lille I will take a chance and expect Lille not to lose.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

19:00 - ESTAC Troyes v Guingamp - 2.32 Troyes

Troyes (13th)

  • 4 defeats in 6 matches.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • 2 consecutive 3-0 home wins.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Unbeaten v teams below them in the league at home.
  • Clean sheets in 3 matches v teams below them at home.
  • 7 of 9 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Guingamp (16th)

  • Only 4 wins, 3 came at home.
  • 6 consecutive away losses.
  • Failed to score in 3 of 4 goals away.
  • 5 1-0 defeats at halftime away.
  • 5 of 6 goals scored away came 2nd half.
  • A whopping 10 goals conceded first half away.

Conclusions

  • Guingamp are poor away and on that basis I will favour Troyes today despite 4 defeats in 6 matches.
  • Troyes are unbeaten v teams below them in the league, keeping clean sheets at home v the bottom sides.
  • Only 4 clean sheets for Troyes tells you this lot are not Paris St Germain.

SCOTTISH PREMIER LEAGUE

15:00 - Celtic v Motherwell - 1.18 Celtic

  • 2-0, 2-0, 1-1 last 3 head to heads. Celtic came close to losing the mid week fixture but for a late late equaliser.
  • Motherwell I feel should not win. This is the 3rd consecutive meeting between these 2 and ordinarily a team would learn quickly and improve as was seen when Motherwell scored first mid week.
  • Celtic have scored 3 consecutive 2nd half goals v Motherwell so factor that in as well.

15:00 - Ross Co v Dundee - 2.3 Ross Co

  • 2-1 Ross, 1-1 and 1-2 Ross in the last 3 head to heads.

Ross Co (9th)

  • Unbeaten home and away v 8th and lower.
  • 2 wins and a 0-1 loss to Celtic in the last 3 at home.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 8 at home.
  • Only led once at halftime at home.
  • Opponents scored first in 6/8 at home.

Dundee (11th)

  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Not won an away match.
  • Conceded in their last 7 away.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Conceded 10 goals away in the last 1/2 hour of matches.
  • Not beaten any side 8th and lower.

Conclusions

  • On form, Ross County have a chance today as they are unbeaten v 8th and lower and Dundee have not beaten any side 8th and lower or have Dundee won away from home.

15:00 - Hearts v Hamilton - 1.75 Hearts

  • Hearts are unbeaten in the last 6 matches.
  • 4-0 and 1-2 Hearts wins last 2 head to heads.

Hearts (7th)

  • Poor stuff at home. Only 1 1-0 win.
  • Not scored that 2nd goal at home.
  • No win in 5 matches.
  • Not led at halftime at home. 4 0-0's at halftime at home.

Hamilton (8th)

  • Unbeaten in 5 matches with 2 consecutive away wins.
  • Wins v 3rd, 4th and 11th away.
  • 2-1 defeats v 5th-7th inclusive.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • 10 of 12 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • I am not convinced with this Hearts home form, particularly for an odds-on shot. I would lay Hearts if Hearts scored first today.
  • Hamilton are a strong 2nd half scoring team so do factor that into your thoughts.

15:00 - Partick v Hibernian - 1.77 Hibernian

  • 3-1 Hibs in the most recent head to head.

Partick (12th)

  • 2 consecutive home wins.
  • Only 1 loss in 5 home matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • 2 of 3 home losses came v top 2.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Opponents scored first in 5/7 away.

Hibernian (4th)

  • Only 3 defeats.
  • Unbeaten away from home.
  • Scored in their last 8 away.
  • Lost only 1 away match at halftime.
  • Scored a single goal a game in all bar 1 match away v teams below them in the league.

Conclusions

  • This may not be the gimme Hibs think it should be. Partick have only 1 loss in 5 home matches. 2 of their 3 losses at home were v top 2.
  • Hibs struggle for that 2nd goal away. Is that enough to lay Hibs if Hibs score first? But....Partick are bottom of the league. Hibs do remain unbeaten away so 1-1 and 1-2 potential correct scores?

SPANISH PRIMERA LIGA

12:00 - Barcelona v Celta Vigo - 1.15 Barcelona

  • 6 and 5 goals scored by Barcelona in the last 2 home matches.
  • Pre-Champions League for Barcelona.

Barcelona (1st)

  • Unbeaten.
  • All wins bar 2 draws.
  • 100% wins at home.
  • Scored in every match.
  • Scored 2+ in all home matches.
  • Not conceded at halftime at home.

Celta Vigo (9th)

  • 3 losses in 5 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 1 match.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • No 0-0 at halftime.
  • 4 2-1 losses away.
  • No away draw.
  • All defeats home and away v teams above them in the league.
  • 100% over 2.5 goals away.

Conclusions

  • Celta may score today, albeit in defeat. What Chance another 2-1 defeat away? Barcelona are scoring 2+ goals in all home matches.
  • 100% over 2.5 goals for Celta Vigo away.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. Barcelona really should lead at halftime.
  • This all assumes all is well pre-Champions League.

17:30 - Sevilla v Deportivo - 1.45 Sevilla

  • 2-3 and 4-2 Sevilla in the last 2 head to heads.
  • Champions League upcoming for Sevilla.

Sevilla (5th)

  • Only draw came 1st match of the season.
  • 5 consecutive home wins.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 4 matches.
  • Failed to score only in away matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime last 6 matches.
  • Unbeaten at halftime at home.
  • 3 clean sheet home wins v 15th and lower.
  • No 0-0.
  • 8 of 11 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • Scored first in 5/6 at home.

Deportivo (17th)

  • Only 3 wins.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 away.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • All defeats v top 10 and only 1 game played away v top 10.
  • Opponents scored first in 4/6 away.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late draw as Sevilla tend to avoid draws and also head to heads are emphatically nowhere near a draw.
  • Expect Sevilla to score. They have failed to score only away. Depor too have only 2 clean sheets.
  • We may see both teams score and if Depor scores first, lay Depor.
  • Depor have lost all matches v top 10 and expectation is that this will continue if the curse of the Champions League does not affect Sevilla.
  • Sevilla at home pre-Champions League have a 100% win record albeit the last 2 matches were 2-1. It is away where they falter. They should be able to cope today.

19:45 - Athletic Bilbao v Real Madrid - 1.5 Real Madrid

  • 4 consecutive Real Madrid wins in head to heads, 3 were 2-1 scorelines.
  • Both sides have European competition commitments.

Ath Bilbao (16th)

  • Only 1 win in 10 home matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet came in that win.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime in 8 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • Only home losses v top 3.

Real Madrid (4th)

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Failed to win the last 2 away matches.
  • Draw, Win, Win, Loss , Draw for Real Madrid pre Champions League.
  • Win, Win, Loss, Draw in away pre-Champions League matches.
  • Unbeaten at halftime.
  • 7 wins and a 1-1 draw v teams 12th and shorter in the league.
  • 8 of 11 goals scored away came 1st half.
  • Led in 5/6 away and 5/6 at halftime away.

Conclusions

  • On form, Ath Bilbao should not win. Real Madrid have 7 wins and a 1-1 v 12th and lower. Ath Bilbao lost at home to top 3.
  • But this is Real Madrid pre Champions League where recenly they have a loss and a draw away.
  • Real Madrid remain unbeaten at halftime. Lay Bilbao in the halftime market if they score first in the first half.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 - Leverkusen v Dortmund - 2.4 Leverkusen

  • 0-0, 0-1, 2-0 Leverkusen in the last 3 home head to heads.

Leverkusen (6th)

  • Unbeaten in 8 matches.
  • Scored in every match.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Scored 2 goals at least in all home matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 2-2 at home v 2nd and 7th and 14th.
  • Scored and conceded in all bar 1 match home and away v top 14 teams.
  • 100% over 2.5 goals at home.

Dortmund (5th)

  • No win in 6 matches, conceding 2 goals at least in those 6 matches.
  • Oh, and scoring 2-2-2-1-1-4 goals!!
  • Failed to score only once.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
  • 3-2-2-2-1 goals scored away recently.
  • 1-2-4-2 goals conceded recently away.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 8 matches.
  • Not played the top 7 away from home.
  • 6 goals scored away in the 16th-30th minute away.

Conclusions

  • Leverkusen have scored in every match and I suggest they will score again today. They are scoring 2 goals in home matches and meet our friends Dortmund who have conceded 1-2-4-2 recently.
  • What chance another goal fest? This pattern for Dortmund must be addressed by management soon, surely?
  • 2-2 looks an obvious starting point. 3-3 as well given Dortmund's reputation.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

14:30 - Werder Bremen v Stuttgart - 2.4 Werder Bremen

  • Both teams scored in 8 of the last 9 head to heads.
  • This is a below par Werder Bremen this season who are not their usual selves.

Werder Bremen (17th)

  • Only 1 win, out of the blue, 4-0 at home to Hannover last home match.
  • 5 consecutive matches saw Werder NOT score. They did score in 2 matches but failed to score again in their last match.
  • Only 4 over 2.5 goals matches, 3 came within the last 4 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • All defeats v top 9 - hope for today?

Stuttgart (12th)

  • Only 2 draws.
  • No 0-0 at halftime in 10 matches.
  • All defeats away bar the last match, a 1-1.
  • Wins at home v teams below them but as you see above, dire away.
  • 10 of 14 goals conceded away came 2nd half.
  • Opponents have scored first in 6/7 away.

Conclusions

  • Werder remain untrustworthy and are not showing their usual patterns.
  • They may be in with a chance given Stuttgart's very poor away record.
  • We have seen 3 over 2.5 goals matches in 4 for Werder now, so a chance the goals will return.
  • Werder have only lost v top 9 this season.

14:30 - Bayern Munich v Hannover - 1.16 Bayern

  • 10 consecutive Bayern wins in head to heads.
  • Bayern are pre-Champions League.

Bayern

  • 5 wins and a 2-2 draw at home.
  • Failed to score in only one match.
  • 4 clean sheets in 5 matches at home.
  • 9 2-0 halftime scores this season and only 1 2-0 loss came last match.
  • 6 consecutive 2-0's at halftime at home.

Hannover

  • Only 2 wins in 9 matches.
  • 3 defeats in 4 away matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away.
  • 2-1 defeats away v 2nd and 4th.
  • No goal scored in any Hannover away matches in the first half hour.

Conclusions

  • Loss, Draw, Win, Win, Win for Bayern pre-Champions League. They should cope today although Hannover have battled in 2-1 defeats v the top 4.
  • Hannover have failed to score in only 2 matches so could get on the scoresheet.
  • Bayern tend towards 2-0 at halftime at home and we profited recently backing that scoreline at odds of 12! Same again today? Hmmm. I would delay as no goal has been scored in a Hannover away match in the first half hour.

14:30 - Hoffenheim v RB Leipzig - 2.24 RB Leipzig

  • 2-2 and 2-1 Leipzig in the last 2 head to heads.
  • Europa League for Hoffenheim and Champions League for Leipzig upcoming.

Hoffenheim (7th)

  • Only 1 win in 7 matches.
  • Failed to score only in their last match.
  • Scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • Scored in their last 7 at home.
  • No 0-0.
  • Only lost once at halftime at home. 4 1-0 leads.
  • Have beaten 1st and 3rd 2-0 at home.
  • 6 of 7 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
  • Scored first in 6/7 at home.

Leipzig (2nd)

  • 3 losses this season all came away from home.
  • Scored 2 goals in 3 of their last 4 away matches.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime.
  • Only 1 loss in 8 matches came v bayern Munich.
  • Conceded in their last 5 away.
  • Only 1 win v top 8 away was v hapless Dortmund.
  • Conceded 2 goals in each of the away matches v top 6 teams.

Conclusions

  • Hoffenheim tend to score at home and Leipzig concede 2 away v top 6 teams.
  • An interesting match as the Hoff have 2-0 wins v the top 3 at home and Leipzig have been conceding 2 goals v top 6 away.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

17:30 - Schalke v FC Koln - 1.43 Schalke

  • 1-3 Koln and 1-1 in the last 2 head to heads.

Schalke

  • Part of that possible 1.01 lay of Dortmund last week.
  • 7 unbeaten matches now.
  • 4 clean sheets in the last 6 matches.
  • Scored in their last 7 matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home. 5 1-0 leads at halftime.
  • Only loss at home v Bayern Munich.
  • All wins bar a draw v 11th and lower.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home.

Koln

  • All defeats bar 2 0-0's.
  • Failed to score in 8 of their last 11 matches.
  • 6 1-0 losses in 7 at halftime.

Conclusions

  • You don't score, you don't win! Schalke should be eyeing the win today and could lead 1-0 at halftime yet again
  • No 2nd goal scored by Koln tells us they are vulnerable if they take the lead.

ITALIAN SERIA A

19:45 - Torino v Atalanta - 2.48 Torino

  • 2-1 Torino, 2-1 Atalanta and 1-1 in the last 3 head to heads.

Torino (11th)

  • Only 3 losses.
  • Only 4 wins. That tells us, drawitis is a problem. 6 score draws in 7 this season.
  • Only 1 home loss was v Roma, a 0-1. That is good home form.
  • Conceded in their last 5 home matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Unbeaten at halftime at home.
  • 5 goals scored at home in the last 15 minutes of the first half.

Atalanta

  • Not won an away match.
  • 3 consecutive away defeats.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 matches away.
  • Only 1 loss at halftime away.
  • 1-1 draws away v 9th and 12th.
  • 10 of 12 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • 2.48, as I hope you know by now, tells us that the market expects a tight match and cannot name a possible winner.
  • What does form tell us? Well this a a home team with only 1 win playing an away side without an away win. Form suggests Torino will not lose.
  • Torino do tend to draw an awful lot of matches and draws tend to be score draws.
  • Atalanta have drawn 9th and 12th away. What chance a 1-1 or 2-2 for trading purposes?
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

16:00 - Strasbourg v Paris St-G - 1.2 PSG

  • 1-2 and 1-0 PSG in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is a pre-Champions League match for PSG.

Strasbourg

  • Only 3 wins.
  • Only 1 loss in 8 matches.
  • 6 draws this season were all score draws.
  • 5 score draws in their last 8 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded in 7 of the last 9 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • 3-3 at home v 2nd in the league.
  • 3-4-3 goals conceded though v top 4.

PSG

  • All wins bar 2 draws.
  • Scored 2+ goals in 14 matches.
  • 2-0 v Troyes last match was 0-0 up to the 72nd minute.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime away.
  • 13 of 19 goals scored away came 2nd half.
  • Scored first in 5/7 away.

Conclusions

  • PSG have had trouble pre Champions League, such as a tight 1-2 win v Dijon.
  • This could be an interesting match given Strasbourg's scoring. They have conceded 3-4-3 goals v top 4 which suggests PSG will be too much for them, even if they are under-par.
  • Do keep faith in PSG - 73 minutes it took them to turn 0-0 into 2-0 so you may want some late action if 0-0 late on.

19:00 - Monaco v Angers - 1.49 Monaco

  • 2-1 and 0-1 Monaco in the last 2 head to heads.

Monaco (4th)

  • Only 4 defeats but did lose their last 2 matches.
  • Prior to that loss v PSG at home, 5 wins and a draw at home.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored in their last 7 at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • All wins home and away v 19th and lower.
  • No 0-0.
  • Scored 12 home goals in the first half.
  • Scored first in 5/7 at home and led at halftime in 5/7 at home.

Angers (19th)

  • Only 2 wins.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Only 3 0-0's at halftime.
  • No 0-0.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • 1-1 away v 2nd, 0-2 away v 6th and 0-2 away v 9th.
  • Only 1 away loss.
  • 7 of 10 goals conceded away were scored first half.

Conclusions

  • 2nd bottom of the league and only 1 away loss. Angers are actually better away than at home.
  • Champions League for Monaco upcoming. Loss, Win, Loss, Win, Draw pre-Champions League for Monaco. Are they vulnerable today?
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Lay the late 0-0.
  • Monaco are highly likely to score today. Angers have wins v 6th and 9th away 2-0 wins too. An interesting match where I would logically side with Monaco but be prepared in play for a possible Angers good display.

19:00 - Nice v Metz - 1.46 Nice

  • 2-4 Nice and 0-0 in the last 2 head to heads.

Nice (14th)

  • Europa League for Nice upcoming.
  • 3 defeats in 4 at home and strong favourites? Metz must be pants!
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime.
  • No 0-0.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Lost 1-2 v 17th and 2-2 v 19th at home.
  • 10 of 15 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Metz (20th)

  • Only 1 win.
  • 8 losses in 9 matches.
  • All losses bar 2 matches this season.
  • Failed to score in 5 consecutive matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Not scored a 2nd goal in an away match.
  • Only win came away v 19th.

Conclusions

  • Nice are not all that, at home and the only reason they are such short priced favourites is simply because Metz have lost all bar 2 matches this season, and their only win has come v 2nd bottom of the league.
  • I have seen better 1.46 favourites but still Nice are likely to win by default today. That said, 1-2 v 17th and 2-2 v 19th at home does not augur well.

19:00 - Rennes v Amiens - 2.02 Rennes