Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

I will be tweeting throughout the day for the tennis and football. @drtclub See you there. I cannot give a definitive time in the tennis. Usually 10am onwards.

14:30 - Tromso v Valerenga - 2.3 Tromso

  • Valerenga have won the last 4 head to heads.
  • This is 11th v 8th in the Norwegian Eliteserien.

Tromso 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • Sole loss at home v 5th.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals at home.
  • Not scored in both halves at home.
  • Not conceded in both halves at home.

Tromso stats

  • Scored and conceded last 6 matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime last 8.

Valerenga 100% stats

  • No draw away.
  • No draw at halftime away.
  • No 0-0.

Valerenga other stats

  • Failed to score only twice.
  • 4 losses in 5 away.
  • 9 of 12 goals conceded away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Expect 2 goals total at least today.
  • Both teams to score has a chance today.
  • I would lay Valerenga if Valerenga scored first.

15:00 - Kalmar FF v Orebro - 2.26 Kalmar

  • 2-1 Orebro in the last head to head.
  • This is 14th v 12th in the Swedish Allsvenskan.

Kalmar

  • Only 2 wins.
  • 3 clean sheets only.
  • 4 losses in their last 5 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0.
  • Wins at home v 13th and 15th and play 12th today so a hope for Kalmar today.
  • Not conceded in both halves at home.
  • 5 of 7 goals scored at home came 1st half.

Orebro

  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in 6 of their last 8 matches.
  • No away win.
  • Draws away v 15th and 16th.
  • Scored all 3 goals away 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • This is not a match I am keen to trade. 4 losses in 5 matches plays failing to score in 6 of 8 matches.
  • If forced, we see Kalmar wins v 13th and 15th at home and they play 12th today. Is Kalmar more comfortable v bottom sides? If so side with Kalmar today.

15:00 - Rizespor v Alanyaspor - 1.34 Risaspor

  • 2-3 Rizespor in the last head to head.
  • This is 16th v 12th in the Turkish Super Lig.
  • Rizespor must win to help survive relegation but are still reliant on Bursaspor losing or drawing. I think Rizespor may be safe on goal difference if Bursaspor draw and Rizespor win.
  • 3 wins in 4 for Rizespor so really going for it.
  • A draw and 2 wins for Rizespor at home last 3 home matches.
  • Losses at home to 13th and 14th tells us Rizespor are inconsistent.
  • Alanyaspor have nothing to play for. 1-3, 2-3, 3-2 v bottom 5 teams away. Rizespor are hoping that they won't have to exchange blows like this today.

Conclusions

  • The market expects need to overcome form here and for Rizespor to get the win they need in order to pressurise Bursaspor into having to win.
  • Rizespor's recent home for and recent overall form is excellent so they must be confident. A match I suppose to lay Alanyaspor if Alanyaspor score first.

15:00 - Ostersunds FK v Sundsvall - 1.37 Ostersunds

  • 5-0 Sundsvall and 4-0 Ostersunds in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 5th v 13th in the Swedish Allsvenskan.

Ostersunds

  • Only 1 loss in 8 matches was v Malmo.
  • Failed to score only twice and only 3 clean sheets.
  • Win, Draw, Win, Draw, Win at home.
  • Scored and conceded in 3 of 4 home matches.
  • Unbeaten at home, unbeaten at halftime at home.
  • Not conceded in both halves at home.

Sundsvall

  • Only 2 wins.
  • 4 of 5 draws were 0-0 this season.
  • Failed to score in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Conceded 7 goals in their last 2 matches.
  • Failed to score away v top 9 with 3 0-0's and a 2-0 loss away v 1st.

Conclusions

  • The market is right here. 0-0 looks the best result for Sundsvall. Win or a draw today for me so must oppose any away goal if Sundsvall actually score.

15:00 - Galatasaray v Konyaspor - 1.27 Galatasary

  • 0-0 and 0-1 Galatasary in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 4th v 10th in the Turkish Super Lig.
  • No draw in 12 and in 16 at home for Galatasary, they play a Konyaspor with nothing to play for.
  • 4 wins in 5 for Galatasary.
  • No home draw for Galatasary.
  • 9 wins in 12 matches at home v 7th and lower.
  • No 0-0 for Galatasary.
  • Only 1 win in 7 for Konyaspor. 3 losses in 4.
  • Konyaspor beat 3rd and 5th 2-3 and 1-3. They scored and conceded away v top 5.
  • Konyaspor conceded 17 of 22 goals away in the 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Galatasary have little to play for. I thought their Europa League spot was threatened but not. It is a dead rubber.

15:00 - Lahti v VPS - 2.26 Lahti

  • 1-0 VPS and 0-1 Lahti in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 6th v 3rd in the Finnish Veikkausliiga.

Lahti

  • 2 0-0's now - I expect 0-0's to end.
  • 3 consecutive clean sheets.
  • Only scored 2 goals twice.
  • Only 2 over 2.5 goals matches.
  • Not scored in both halves or conceded in both halves.
  • Not beaten top 4 yet, 2 0-0's.

VPS

  • Only 1 loss in 9 matches.
  • 4 wins in 5 away matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • No 0-0.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Conceded 7 of 9 away goals first half.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late 0-0. I think 0-0 sequence will end.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. VPS are more likely to concede first half than 2nd.
  • I would lay Lahti if Lahti score first given they rarely score 2 goals.

15:00 - PS Kemi v JJK - 1.88 PS

  • 2-0 Kemi in the last head to head.
  • This is 10th v 12th in the Finnish Veikkausliiga.

PS Kemi

  • Only 1 draw was a 0-0 first match.
  • 3 consecutive home defeats.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • 3 home losses were v top 3.

JJK

  • Only 1 win.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • No away win, 3 losses and 2 draws.
  • Not scored in both halves away.
  • Lost to 8th and 9th away and 0-0 away v 11th.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Both teams could score. Only 1 clean sheet PS Kemi. The form suggests laying JJK if JJK score first.

16:00 - SJK v FC Inter - 1.95 SJK

  • 2 SJK wins in league head to heads.
  • This is 8th v 4th in the Finnish Veikkausliiga.

SJK

  • Only 3 wins.
  • Only 2 clean sheets and failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored in their last 6 at home.
  • No home 0-0.
  • 8 of 10 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • Not played top 4 at home.
  • Only 1 loss at home.

FC Inter

  • 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Draw and 3 consecutive wins away.
  • Scored 2 or more goals away in the last 3 matches.
  • No away 0-0.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals away.
  • All wins have come v 7th and lower, away v 7th, 11th and 12th.

Conclusions

  • I will have to go against the market here. 3 clean sheets in 4 for FC Inter. 3 wins for FC Inter away v 7th, 11th and 12th and playing 8th today.
  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Lay SJK if SJK score first. FC Inter are scoring 2 goals with regularity away so why SJK odds on?

17:00 - Stabaek v Lillestrom - 2.2 Stabaek

  • 1-2 Stabaek and 1-2 Lillestrom in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 5th v 11th in the Norwegian Eliteserien.

Stabaek

  • Only 3 defeats.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • Only 1 loss at home.
  • Solid v top 6 at home but loss at home v 13th and 1-1 v 16th.
  • No 1-0 or 0-1 at home.

Lillestrom

  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Not scored that 2nd goal in an away match.
  • 0-1, 1-1, 1-1 in their last 3 away.
  • No 0-0.
  • Not led at halftime away.
  • 5 defeats and a 1-1 home and away v top 7.
  • Scored and conceded away v top 7.
  • All 5 away goals scored 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • I will lay Lillestrom if Lillestrom score first as they are yet to score 2 goals away.
  • Lay any late 0-0.

17:00 - Jonkopings Sodra v Malmo FF - 1.8 Malmo

  • 3-2 Sodra and 1-0 Malmo in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 11th v 1st in the Swedish Allsvenskan.

Sodra stats

  • Unbeaten at home.
  • Unbeaten at halftime at home.
  • Scored and conceded in 3 of 4 at home.
  • Not conceded in both halves at home.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Only 1 win in 7 matches.

Malmo stats

  • Only 1 loss.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • Only 1 0-0.
  • 7 consecutive 0-0's at halftime.
  • Unbeaten away. Unbeaten at halftime away.
  • 1-1 draws away v 9th and 10th.
  • Not conceded in both halves away.

Conclusions

  • Malmo have failed to score only once away so expect a goal from them. It may be 0-0 yet again at halftime so expect that Malmo goal 2nd half.
  • If the Sodra scoring and conceding habit continues, lay Sodra if Sodra scores first.

19:45 - Juventus v Real Madrid - 2.78 Real Madrid

  • The Champions League. There is not much research I can do here. This is a Final. One-off. Tactics will reflect that.
  • Juventus in keeping Barcelona and Monaco's attacks quiet, show that they can do the same against Real Madrid.
  • Real Madrid consistently score 2 goals in the Champions League. An over reliance on Ronaldo's goals might be their downfall if he is targeted this evening.
  • Speculatively, backing 0-0 pre match might have legs (and a reliance on Juve's defence being on top at least until halftime!).
  • 2-1/1-2 appeals given Juventus and Real Madrid have shown an ability to score 2 goals. Again trading vehicles only and the ideal trade out is at 1-1.

FRENCH OPEN

Cornet v Radwanska - 1.56 Radwanska

  • 41st v 8th.
  • 7-1 Aggy in head to heads.
  • 4 consecutive Radwanska wins in head to heads.
  • Cornet has the French crowd  but has not gone further than the round of 32 in her last 4 tournaments. Round of 64 here today.
  • Radwanska's form prior to the French Open was poor. She lost the first set last match and won the next 2 sets.
  • I will lay Cornet if Cornet wins the first set. Similarly, we are likely to see a fightback from Cornet if she loses the first set. Therefore, lay the first set winner?

Feliciano Lopez v Marin Cilic - 1.22 Cilic

  • 40th v 8th.
  • 4-2 Cilic in head to heads.
  • 3-0 Cilic last 3 head to heads. 3 of 4 matches saw 3 sets so today could be a competitive one.
  • Cilic has been cruising. Lopez had to duke it out in a 5 setter v David Ferrer. That tells me that Lopez will not be winning 3-0 today.

Kyle Edmund v Kevin Anderson - 1.65 Kevin

  • 42nd v 66th.
  • No head to heads.
  • Kyle Edmund has beaten the player who beat Del Potro last week and the player who beat Tsonga in the French Open. The Olivo match I would not take as rock solid form as Olivo would have been mentally and emotionally drained in beating such a player as Tsonga in his own country's Grand Slam.
  • Kevin Anderson beat Kyrgios in 4 sets. I cannot take that on faith as Kyrgios has questionable attitude.
  • I would lay a 2-0 leader. We might even see a 5 setter today. The rankings are tight. If you expect a 5 setter, lay the 2-1 set leader.

Su-Wei Hsieh v Caroline Garcia - 1.18 Garcia

  • 101st v 24th.
  • Head to head from 2014.
  • Garcia is French (not Spanish!) so playing to a home support.
  • 2 3 setters for Hsieh. She beat Johanna Konta, tie break 2nd set and winning final set. That impressed.
  • Garcia has had a relatively easy run of it.
  • I would lay Garcia if Garcia wins the first set in the hope that Hsieh shows the fightback she showed v Konta.

Elena Vesnina v Carla Suarez Navarro - 1.45 Navarro

  • 14th v 25th.
  • 3-0 Navarro all head to heads from 2016 onwards.
  • 3 consecutive 3-set matches for Vesnina tells us to lay Vesnina if Vesnina wins the first set.Carla won in Stuttgart 2-0 v Vesnina.

Andy Murray v Del Potro - 1.37 Murray

  • 1st v 33rd. False ranking for Del Potro who has been injured.
  • 5 setter Del Potro in the Davis Cup in 2016. Andy won the Olympic Final v Del Potro.
  • I cannot see a 3-0 set win for either player today. I would try and lay 3-0 after the first set winner for the first set winner. The problem is the set betting markets are terrible.
  • Lay a 2-0 and 2-1 set winner.

Hyeon Chung v Kei Nishikori - 1.35 Nishikori

  • 94th v 7th.
  • No head to heads.
  • Quarter Final Barcelona, Semi Final Munich, round of 16 Lyon, Chung is in decent form and going under the radar a bit. A new name on the circuit, he may surprise in this Battle of Asia.
  • Nishikori, as a top 10 player, may be a step too far for Chung.
  • If Nishikori is 2-0 up, I would lay him. 3rd set tie breaker v Chardy. Chung will dig in if 2-0 down.

Daria Kasatkina v Simona Halep - 1.38 Halep

  • 29th v 5th.
  • Straight set 2016 win for Halep.
  • I have not heard of Kasatkina.This will be tough for Kasatkina.
  • Winner in Madrid, Finalist in Rome, Halep is obviously accomplished on clay.
  • A retirement for Daria in Rome may suggest an underlying injury.

Fernando Verdasco  v Pablo Cuevas - 1.5 Cuevas

  • 36th v 26th so note the tight rankings.
  • Head to heads from 2014.
  • 4 and 5 set matches for Verdasco tells us immediately that he will not be winning 3-0 today. He has really had to battle.
  • The Verdasco win over Alexander Zverev was particularly eye-catching. Zverev was beaten by Cuevas in Madrid. He lost to Thiem. He has lost to Thiem twice now in 2 tournaments prior to the French Open.
  • I will have to lay any Verdasco sets lead today. I cannot see 3-0 Verdasco. I like Cuevas form from Madrid which impressed.

John Isner v Karen Khachanov - 1.73 Isner

  • 24th v 56th.
  • No head to heads.
  • Isner had had at least one tie breaker in each of his last 13 matches.
  • Khachanov shocked with a win v Tomas Berdych in 3 straight sets.
  • The market suggests 5 sets potential and with 5 sets potential you lay the 2-0 and 2-1 leader.
  • Expect tie breakers and tie breakers do allow both players an equal chance of winning the set.

Carina Witthoeft v Karolina Pliskova - 1.37 Pliskova

  • 69th v 3rd.
  • No head to heads.
  • A match where we have to have faith in rankings, although a 1.37 quote tells you the market expects a battle. I would therefore lay Pliskova if Pliskova wins the first set. I would be keen to back Pliskova too if her odds drift.

Richard Gasquet v Gael Monfils - 1.73 Monfils

  • 23rd v 17th.
  • 2 French Men.
  • 7-6 Monfils in head to heads.
  • Gasquet won the last 2 head to heads in 2015 and 2017.
  • I have no opinion here. It is too tight to call. Yet again with potential 5 setters, lay a 2-1 or 2-0 leader.