Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

I have included Portugal and Turkey today as there are so many 'impossible' matches i.e. matches where the favourite is at odds of 2.4 or higher (the market telling us it hasn't got a clue who will win!). I have done a shortlist at DRT Facebook and there's the usual list of goals before halftime. Quite a few and quite a few from Germany. See you at 14:30 for a live chat webinar.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

12:30 - Burnley v Everton - 2.68 Burnley

  • The market does not fancy picking sides here.
  • 14 matches in for Big Sam and Everton.

Burnley (7th)

  • No win in 11 matches.
  • 3 1-1 draws in 4 matches.
  • Scored 2 goals only once in 13 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 7 and last 5 at home.
  • 8 0-0's halftime at home.
  • Unbeaten at home v 10th-19th inclusive.
  • 73% of conceded home goals came 2nd half.

Everton (9th)

  • 3 wins in his first 4 matches Big Sam. Unbeaten in his first 6.5 losses in his last 8 though and only 2 wins which came at home.
  • 4 consecutive away defeats.
  • Tottenham and Arsenal recent sides they lost to away.

Conclusions

  • Struggles for both sides really. Everton are 7 points from relegation despite being top 10.
  • No surprise to see a 0-0 at halftime today. Solid home record Burnley v 10th-19th inclusive at home.
  • An inability to get that 2nd goal is a problem for Burnley. Layable if scoring first?

15:00 - Leicester v Bournemouth - 1.9 Leicester

  • 0-0, 1-0 Bournemouth, 1-1, 0-0 in the last 4 head to heads.

Leicester (8th)

  • Scored and conceded last 4 matches without a win.
  • 2 wins and 2 1-1 draws at home recent 4 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Only 1 home loss v 7th and lower.
  • Wins at home v 7th-14th inclusive were all wins to nil.

Bournemouth (11th)

  • Only 1 loss in 9 was an apparent shock v Huddersfield.
  • Scored and conceded in 8 of those 9 matches.
  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • Scored in their last 9 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 away.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away.
  • 5 losses and a win v Chelsea away v top 9 teams.
  • All defeats bar 2 for Bournemouth did come v top 10 teams.

Conclusions

  • Strictly on form, Leicester cope with mid table teams. Bournemouth, if they lose, tend to lost to top 10 teams.
  • They do score though and have good recent form. If we take the form line, lay any Bournemouth lead.

15:00 - Southampton v Stoke - 1.8 Southampton

  • no head to head relevance - new manager Stoke.

Southampton (16th)

  • Only 5 wins.
  • No win in 7 at home.
  • Conceded in their last 7 and last 9 at home.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime at home (20%).
  • Only 1 home loss v 12th and lower.

Stoke (19th)

  • 3 draws in 4.
  • 6 matches under Lambert - only 1 win at home v Huddersfield. Losses away v City and Bournemouth.
  • Conceded 2 goals only once last 5 matches.

Conclusions

  • There is a hint that Lambert is installing some defensive strength to Stoke. If that clicks, a poor Saints may come out of this best case 1-1 draw.
  • Both teams to score is a strong Stoke pattern v 11th and lower away but remember new manager.
  • In-play stats will confirm whether Saints continue to struggle to keep a clean sheet and score that 2nd goal.

15:00 - Swansea v West Ham - 2.66 Swansea

  • 8 games in for Swansea's new manager. 17 games in for West Ham's.
  • Head to heads are therefore irrelevant.

Swansea (18th)

  • Only 2 defeats under new manager. Latest v Brighton was a puzzler (but the market was right).
  • 3 consecutive home wins 1-0, 3-1 and 1-0 , oh and v Liverpool and Arsenal of all people!!

West Ham (13th)

  • Only 3 points ahead of Swansea yet the league position gap seems so vast!!
  • 2 consecutive away defeats v Brighton and Liverpool. Brighton beat West Ham as effectively as they did Swansea.
  • Scored and conceded in 9 of their last 10 matches.

Conclusions

  • Both sides have suffered recently at the hands of Brighton.
  • My argument with West Ham is that they usually target 2+ goals v strugglers (and reach those targets). They do meet a Swans side renewed under new manager and keeping the likes of Liverpool and Arsenal barren on their visit.
  • Yes, I am with the market. Too tough to call. In-play stats all the way here.

15:00 - Tottenham v Huddersfield - 1.22 Tottenham

  • 0-4 earlier this season to Tottenham.
  • Tottenham play Juventus on the 7th March. In the cup, Poncho-tee-no has rested Delli Ali and Harry Kane. Will that occur today given the assumed weakness of the opponent?

Tottenham

  • A potential top 3 berth with a win.
  • 7 wins and 3 score draws last 10 matches.
  • 2 consecutive 1-0 wins came in London derbies.
  • Failed to score only 2 matches.
  • No defeat in 13 at home.
  • Scored in their last 16 and last 11 at home.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Unbeaten v 6th and lower at home.
  • 66% of home goals scored 2nd half.

Huddersfield

  • 2 consecutive wins.
  • Conceded in their last 11 away.
  • 8 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Failed to score away v top 9, 5 defeats and a 0-0.
  • 23 of 28 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Team news vital for Spurs. They are in with a Champions League chance at home to Juventus so expect Kane and Alli to take a break and Son to lead the line.
  • Huddersfield may last out til halftime so note that.
  • 2 consecutive 1-0 Spurs win. They would take that today.
  • Huddersfield tend to lose to nil if you want to chance 3 correct score wins to nil. 1-0, 3-0, 4-0 perhaps?

15:00 - Watford v West Brom - 2.16 Watford

  • 2-0 and 2-2 in the last 2 head to heads.

Watford (10th)

  • 3 wins, a loss and a draw at home.
  • 2 consecutive home wins.
  • Scored in their last 9 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Not beaten 14th and lower at home.

West Brom (20th)

  • 4 consecutive losses.
  • 14 games in under Alan Pardew.
  • Only the one win.
  • 5 losses and 2 draws away under Pardew.
  • No win in 13 away matches.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away.
  • 15 of 22 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • 10 matches remain for West Brom, 6 points shy of 2nd bottom.
  • It is critical that they start collecting points. Watford though are in good home form and have scored in their last 9 at home.
  • No win for West Brom away under Pardew. It looks like another possibly barren day if Watford score again. In 12/14 matches under Pardew, West Brom failed to score that 2nd goal.

17:30 - Liverpool v Newcastle - 1.24 Liverpool

  • 1-1 last head to head.
  • The Benitez factor...?
  • Liverpool play Porto on the 6th March 2018 in the Champions League. One, or more, of the 3 Musketeers up front is likely to be rested. This could change the dynamic of the game.
  • Liverpool are largely unaffected results wise in matches prior to the Champions League.

Liverpool (3rd)

  • A chance to go 2nd with a win.
  • Only 3 losses.
  • Scored 2+ goals in 10 of their last 11 matches.
  • No defeat in 14 at home.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home (36%).
  • All home clean sheets v 14th and lower 4 wins and a draw.
  • 68% of home goals scored 2nd half.

Newcastle United (15th)

  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6, losing only one match.
  • Only 1 loss in 8 matches came v Manchester City.
  • Scored 2 goals only once in the last 9 matches.
  • Scored in their last 7 and last 5 away.
  • No 0-0 away.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away.
  • All defeats away v top 7.
  • 15 of 23 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Team news important for Liverpool. Will they rest any stars? They do, honestly, have a huge advantage over Porto in the Champions League.
  • A first team Liverpool should simply have too much for Newcastle.
  • If Newcastle score first, lay them. They only scored 2 goals v Bournemouth in their last 9 matches.
  • Liverpool, if on form, should score 2 goals at least.

FRENCH LIGUE 1

16:00 - ESTAC Troyes v Paris St-G - 1.26 PSG

  • PSG tend to win head to heads.
  • PSG play Real Madrid on the 6th March 2018.
  • Neymar may be injured. Will PSG seek to wrap Cavani in cotton wool? If he is injured today, the attacking line up is broken.With Real Madrid holding a 3-1 lead in the first leg of the Champions League, PSG will need their first choice attacking line up.
  • With a 14 point lead in League 1 for PSG, if I was their manager, I would rest their forwards and potentially take a hit points wise.

ESTAC Troyes

  • Failed to score in their last 2 matches.
  • 2 0-0's at home.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Not beaten top 8.
  • All defeats v top 6, not played top 3 at home.
  • Failed to score in 6/7 at home v top 11.
  • 8 of 12 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

PSG (1st)

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • 15 wins in 17 matches.
  • 6 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 1 match.
  • Scored in their last 20 matches.
  • Unbeaten at halftime.
  • 100% wins v 15th and lower.

Conclusions

  • A fine balancing act required of PSG manager today. Is the 3-1 deficit to Real Madrid salvageable in the Champions League?
  • Team news required of PSG. ESTAC are yet to meet top 3 at home but their overwhelming defeats v top 6 suggests even a changed PSG should not lose today.
  • PSG remain unbeaten at halftime so if ESTAC score first and early first half, lay them in the halftime market.

19:00 - Amiens v Rennes - 2.52 Rennes

  • 2-0 Rennes last head to head.

Amiens (15th)

  • Only 2 wins in 12 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • Beat 8th, 9th, 10th, 11th at home.

Rennes (7th)

  • 2 defeats in 7 matches.
  • 2-1-2-0-2 conceded recent aways.
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • Scored in their last 9 away.
  • No 0-0.
  • Scored and conceded in all aways v 11th and lower, winning only 2 matches.

Conclusions

  • I think both teams could score today.
  • 2-1/1-2 or 2-2 are my potential plays here. Amiens tend to beat 8th-11th inclusive at home. Rennes tend to score and concede v 11th and lower.
  • So 2-2 it is for me as a trading angle.

19:00 - Angers v Guingamp - 2.2 Angers

  • 1-1 last head to head.

Angers (17th)

  • Only 6 wins.
  • 3 wins and 2 losses last 5 at home.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • No 0-0.
  • Losses v 11th and lower were 0-1 only.. Did beat 11th, 15th and 18th at home.
  • Away from home Angers have only lost the one match v 9th and lower.

Guingamp (10th)

  • 3 consecutive draws.
  • Only 1 0-0 away.
  • Only 2 defeat v teams 11th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Lots of matches like this today. 2 unglamourous sides who ordinarily I would leave alone.
  • Lay the late 0-0.
  • Strangetl Anger are better away. Slight nod to Guingamp whose away form v 11th and lower is excellent.

19:00 - St Etienne v Dijon - 1.77 St Etienne

  • 2 consecutive away wins St Etienne in head to heads.
  • 8 matches in for new Dijon manager.

St Etienne (12th)

  • 3 wins and 2 eye catching draws v Marseille and Lyon sees St Etienne in a good place.
  • 2 goals scored in each of their last 3 at home.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Only home defeats v top 5.

Dijon (11th)

  • 3 wins, a draw, and loss to Monaco sees decent enough recent form.
  • 2-2-3-0-0-2 goals scored recently. I was going to say the new manager has them scoring but recent away hiccups.

Conclusions

  • New manager Dijon means tough to read. St Etienne if scoring 2 goals again should eye the win.
  • Dijon failed to score last 2 away.Their 3 wins under new manager came at home.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on St Etienne but unknown regards Dijon.
  • Lay Dijon if Dijon score first.

ITALIAN SERIA A

14:00 - SPAL v Bologna - 2.46 SPAL

  • 2-1 Bologna last head to head.

SPAL (18th)

  • Only 4 wins.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 15 and last 6 at home.
  • No 0-0 at home. Draw v 9th, 10th at home and wins v 11th and 13th at home. Play....12th today.

Bologna (12th)

  • 2 consecutive wins.
  • Only 3 draws.
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime in the last 16 matches.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 8 away matches.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away.
  • 100% wins away v teams below them in the league.

Conclusions

  • SPAL are highly likely to concede. I would lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on Bologna's recently record.

17:00 - Lazio v Juventus - 2.32 Juventus

  • 2-3 and 1-2 Lazio last 2 head to heads hence the market hesitation about Juve.
  • Juventus meet Tottenham in the Champions League on the 7th March. That, I suspect, is the priority.Although it is tough to balance as Juve are so near to Napoli at the top of the league and Napoli have a possible tricky one v Roma.

Lazio (3rd)

  • Only 2 wins.
  • Only 6 defeats but 3 came within the last 5 matches.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • Scored in their last 11 at home.
  • Unbeaten at halftime at home.
  • Only played one of top 6 at home, a 1-4 loss to 1st.
  • 68% of goals scored and 85% of goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Juventus (2nd)

  • Juve's last defeat v Sampdoria came pre Champions League.since then 11 wins and a 0-0!
  • 9 consecutive wins, 7 away.
  • Scored last 13 away.
  • 6 consecutive clean sheets, 4 away.
  • Unbeaten at halftime away.
  • Only met one of top 5 away, a 0-1 win v Napoli.

Conclusions

  • A muddling match. Gaps in form for both sides v top 5. Team news key for Juve.
  • Juventus may rest the likes of Dybala with that all-important away match v Tottenham and may be more vulnerable than usual today.
  • No Lazio's strong 2nd half bias if 0-0 at halftime.
  • Both sides have strong scoring patterns but will that continue in this unique pre-Champions League match?

19:45 - Napoli v Roma - 1.64 Napoli

  • 1-2 and 0-1 Napoli last 2 head to heads.

Napoli (1st)

  • 10 consecutive wins, 5 at home.
  • 6 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Only loss at home v 1st.
  • Conceded 2 goals at home only once.

Roma (5th)

  • 3 wins in 4 matches.
  • 7 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches away.
  • Not beaten top 6 away 1-0, 1-1, 1-1.
  • Only win v top 6 was the Rome derby v Lazio.

Conclusions

  • This could be very tight today. No Champions League distraction Roma but an inability to beat top 6, bar a fellow Roman side.
  • I am siding with Napoli today not to lose.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 Schalke v Hertha - 1.65 Schalke

  • 2 2-0 Schalke wins head to heads.

Schalke (3rd)

  • 2 consecutive wins.
  • Only 3 losses since 29th September 2017.
  • Scored last 18 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 at home.
  • No 0-0 halftime at home. 9 1-0 leads.
  • 2 losses at home v 1st and 14th.
  • 11 of 14 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Hertha Berlin (11th)

  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • Only 2 losses in 10.
  • 0-0, 0-2, 0-0 last 3 away.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Not beaten top 4.

Conclusions

  • 0-0 in play with hertha away? But Schalke scoring 18 consecutive should end that.
  • Schalke tend to lead at halftime. Lay the 0-0 halftime score market based on them but Hertha's 50% 0-0's at halftime away does not back that up.
  • Schalke may score and concede without losing.
  • Lay the late 0-0.

14:30 - Frankfurt v Hannover - 1.77 Frankfurt

  • 4 consecutive Frankfurt wins in head to heads.

Frankfurt (4th)

  • Only 2 defeats in 9 came away from home.
  • 2 draws and 3 wins last 5 home.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 1-2 home v 8th, 1-1 away v 9th, 1-2 away v 10th, 1-2 away v 11th, 2-1 at home v 12th.

Hannover (10th)

  • Scored and conceded in 9 of their last 12 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • 3 consecutive away 1-1's.
  • Conceded in their last 9 and last 11 away.
  • Scored and conceded in 10 of 12 away.
  • Only 2 away wins.
  • 9 of 12 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Hannover may score and concede without winning.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on Frankfurt.

14:30 - Augsburg v Hoffenheim - 2.56 Augsburg

  • An off-putting market but the Hoff are always worth investigation.
  • 0-0 and 2-2 in the last 2 head to heads.

Augsburg (8th)

  • Only 1 loss in 6 at home came last home match.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 2 wins only v top 13 at home came v 4th and 6th.
  • Failed to score in only 1 home match.
  • 7 goals scored at home last 15 mins of matches.

Hoffenheim (9th)

  • Only 1 win in 8 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 8 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 away.
  • No 0-0.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Only away wins v bottom 3.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on both sides.
  • The Hoff have been poor this season. Lord knows how they are 9th.
  • Hoff have scored and conceded last 8 and last 5 away so if they lead 0-1 for any period of time, they look layable.

14:30 - Hamburg v Mainz - 2.3 Hamburg

  • 0-0 and 3-2 Mainz last 2 head to heads.

Hamburg (17th)

  • Only 4 wins.
  • No win in 11.
  • Only 2 0-0's at home.
  • Only 1 loss v 8th and lower at home.
  • 0-0, 0-0, 0-2 at home v 14th and lower.

Mainz (16th)

  • Win draw last 2 matches. Losses recently v Leverkusen, Bayern and Hoff.
  • Not played bottom 2 away yet but beat them at home.

Conclusions

  • 2 poor sides. Slight nod towards the away side. They have beaten Hamburg this season. They also have a draw and win sequence. 3 recent losses v solid sides so not unexpected.
  • I would enter this match looking at Mainz to get a positive result.

14:30 - Wolfsburg v Leverkusen - 2.16 Leverkusen

  • 3-3 and 2-2 last 2 head to heads. 'not another fecking draw' Wolfsburg's manager mutters under his breath.

Wolfsburg (15th)

  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6.
  • Only 4 wins.
  • Scored in their last 11 at home.
  • 3 0-0's at haltime at home (25%).
  • Losses at home v top 4.
  • 7 score draws at home.
  • 13 of 18 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Leverkusen (5th)

  • Dodgepot of the year award has Bayer's name on it.
  • Failed to score in 3 of 4 matches now. Red carded last match.
  • No defeat in 9 away though.
  • Losses away v 1st, 11th and 16th.
  • Failed to score in only 1 away.
  • 17 of 23 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Oh Lordy, Score draws v fails to score.
  • When I put my faith in Leverkusen they fail to score or get a red card.
  • Wolfsburg surely present them with a chance here given the Wolf love the score draw.
  • I will play this via the inplay stats to see which Leverkusen turns up. An argument for laying the Wolf if they score first.
  • Argument too for 2nd half goals if 0-0 at halftime.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

17:30 - PSV v Utrecht  - 1.37 PSV

  • 4 consecutive PSV wins in head to heads.

PSV (1st)

  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Only 2 defeats.
  • No 0-0 at halftime in 10 matches.
  • No defeat in 12 at home.
  • Scored in their last 12 at home.
  • Unbeaten at halftime at home.

Utrecht (4th)

  • 4 draws and 4 wins last 8 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 8 of their last 10 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Scored in their last 7 away.
  • No 0-0 away.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Beat Ajax 1-2 away.

Conclusions

  • Do not discount Utrecht fully. I have enjoyed following and relying upon them recently and they have not disappointed but they were largely priced up as favourites on those occasions.
  • Clear outsiders on this occasion.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Strong both teams to score pattern Utrecht. With no defeat in 12 PSV, lay Utrecht if Utrecht score first.
  • Value is in laying a PSV lead. I am not saying it will come in but Utrecht are confident, and have beaten Ajax too.
  • PSV though do tend to get the best of head to heads.

17:30 - Excelsior v AZ - 1.54 AZ

  • 3-3, 1-1 and 0-2 Excelsior last 3 head to heads.

Excelsior (10th)

  • 2 consecutive wins came away.
  • 3 consecutive draws at home, 2 were 0-0.
  • Not beaten a top 11 team at home.All defeats bar 1.

AZ (3rd)

  • Only 1 defeat since 15th October 2017 was v Ajax.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • No defeat in 11 away.
  • Scored in their last 12 away.
  • Only away loss v 1st.

Conclusions

  • I must be with AZ in their current excellent form. I do not expect them to lose.

19:45 - Heerenveen v Willem II - 1.58 Heerenveen

  • 1-2 Heerenveen and 2-1 Willem II in the last 2 head to heads.

Heerenveen (9th)

  • Scored and conceded in 9 of the last 12 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Unbeaten at home v 11th and lower.

Willem II (14th)

  • Only 3 wins in 16 matches.
  • 4 consecutive away defeats.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime in the last 15 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 7 away.
  • No 0-0.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime away.
  • All wins v 11th and lower but away, only wins v 13th and 17th.

Conclusions

  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on both teams only 2 0-0's HT recently.
  • With Willem II conceding in their last 7 away, lay them if they score first.
  • Lay any late 0-0.

19:45 - NAC Breda v Feyenoord - 1.54 Feyenoord

  • 0-2 Breda the last time these 2 met.

Breda (15th)

  • Only 2 wins in 11 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • No draw in 10 at home.
  • Conceded in their last 12 at home.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • v top 8, 5 losses and a sole win v Utrecht at home.
  • 15 goals conceded at home in the last 30 mins of matches.
  • 2/3rd of goals scored and conceded at home came 2nd half.

Feyenoord (5th)

  • Loss, Draw, Loss, Loss last 4 away.
  • 8 wins, a loss and a draw v teams 12th and lower (the loss v Breda).
  • 13 goals scored away first 1/2 hour of matches.

Conclusions

  • Breda did score first v Ajax recently so that threat is always there.
  • Feyenoord are on a poor away run but v 12th and lower they tend to go unbeaten. Their general poor goal scoring might get a boost from a Breda side conceding in their last 12 at home.
  • Feyenoord need a watching brief inplay as they have been so poor of late.

SPANISH LA LIGA

12:00 - Villareal v Girona - 1.89 Villareal

  • 1-2 Villareal last head to head.

Villareal (6th)

  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime in 11 matches.
  • Scored in their last 5 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • 3 losses at home v 1st, 5th and 14th.
  • 9 of 12 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Girona (8th)

  • Not won in 6 away.
  • Failed to score in only 2 of their last 20 matches.
  • No win in 6 away.
  • Not beaten a top 12 side away.

Conclusions

  • Girona could get a goal today. They have been in good goal scoring form. They may not win though given they have not beaten a top 6 side away.

15:15 - Sevilla v Athletic Bilbao - 1.67 Sevilla

  • 3 Athletic wins and 1 Sevilla in the last 4 head to heads.

Sevilla (5th)

  • 3 wins in 4 matches.
  • Only 3 draws.
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Only 1 home loss v 7th and lower.
  • Unbeaten at home v 12th and lower and did not concede a 2nd goal.
  • 70% of goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Ath Bilbao (12th)

  • Only 2 losses since 19th November came last 2 away matches.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 3 aways.
  • No 0-0 away.
  • Losses away v 2nd and 4th suggests 5th may be too far.

Conclusions

  • Sevilla should not lose today.
  • We may have to wait to the 2nd half for goals.
  • Lay Bilbao if Bilbao score first. Sevilla tend not to concede 2 goals v 12th and lower.

17:30 - Leganes v Malaga - 2.02 Leganes

  • 0-0 and 0-3 Leganes last 2 head to heads may be repeated if Malaga cannot solve their scoreless problems.

Leganes (14th)

  • Only 3 wins since 28th October 2017.
  • Failed to score in 5 of their last 6.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Unbeaten at home v 12th and lower with 3 1-0 wins, a 0-0 and a 3-2 win.
  • 8 of 11 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Malaga (20th)

  • 9 defeats and 2 draws last 11 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 5 and last 5 away.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away.
  • All defeats bar 2 away.
  • 12 goals conceded away last 1/2 hour.

Conclusions

  • Let's be frank. 2 teams out of form battle it out. Don't get too excited.
  • Strictly on form, Leganes should feel confident of getting a result given their home form v 12th and lower.
  • This could be a tight old fixture so do not be surprised with a drawn out 0-0.
  • With Malaga conceding 12 goals away last 1/2 hour, start getting interested in laying that 0-0 come the 60th minute mark.

19:45 - Real Madrid v Getafe - 1.21 Getafe

  • Real Madrid tend to win head to heads, albeit conceding.
  • On 6th March, Real Madrid play Paris St Germain and lead 3-1.

Real Madrid (3rd)

  • Mugged by Espanyol last match. Bounce back today?
  • Prior to that defeat, Real had scored 2+ goals in 7 consecutive matches.
  • 3 consecutive home wins.
  • No draw in 11 at home.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Unbeaten at halftime at home.
  • Struggles at home v top 8.
  • 20 first half goals scored.

Getafe (11th)

  • Failed to score in 3/4.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4.
  • 1-1-2-1-0-1 conceded away recently. Can keep it tight.
  • No win in 10 away.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Not beaten top 13 away.

Conclusions

  • Team news important for Real Madrid. They cannot be complacent about 3-1 lead given what PSG did to Barcelona.
  • This could be a toughie for Real Madrid. They tend to win head to heads but Getafe have been keeping it tight of late.
  • No surprise a 0-0 at halftime but I would take it on 2nd half.

TURKISH SUPER LIG

13:00 - Basaksehir v Goztepe - 1.44 Basaksehir

  • 1-2 Basaksehir in the last head to head.

Basaksehir (2nd)

  • A chance to go top with a win.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • No win in 2 at home.
  • No 0-0.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Only played 3 of the top 9 at home, 5-1 v 1st, 0-2 v 4th and 2-2 v 6th.
  • Scored first in 7/11 at home.

Goztepe (7th)

  • Only 1 win in 7 matches.
  • 3 losses and a draw last 4 away.
  • Not beaten top 5 home and away 3 losses out of 3 away.
  • 10 of 15 goals scored away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Basaksehir could end their 2 match winless run at home against a Goztepe with 3 defeats away v top 5.

16:00 - Karabukspor v Galatasaray - 1.25 Galatasary

  • 2-1 Karabukspor the last time Galatasary visited. Not the norm though in head to heads.

Karabukspor (18th)

  • Only 3 wins, one came v 2nd placed.
  • No 0-0.
  • 8 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • v top 6 at home, 3-1 v 2nd, 0-1 v 3rd, 1-0 v 5th and 1-1 v 6th.
  • 75% of goals scored and 69% of goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Galatasary (1st)

  • 6 losses in their last 7 away.
  • No draw in 14 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 7 away.
  • No 0-0 away.
  • All away defeats v top 11 so should cope with bottom 3.

Conclusions

  • Poor away run from Galatasary but context needed. They tend only to lose to top 11 sides so really 18th should not trouble them.
  • High proportion of 0-0's at halftime for Karabukspor so no surprise a 0-0 at halftime.

PORTUGEUSE PRIMIERA LIGA

18:15 - Benfica v Maritimo - 1.17 Benfica

  • Maritimo are competitive in home head to heads.

Benfica (2nd)

  • Only 1 loss.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • No defeat in 18 and in 11 at home.
  • 100% wins v 4th and lower at home.
  • Scored first in 8/11 at home.

Maritimo (8th)

  • Only 1 win in 10 came at home 3-2 last match.
  • Failed to score in 4 of their last 5 away matches.
  • Failed to score in 6 of their last 8 matches.
  • No win in 7 away.
  • 100% defeats away v top 9 conceding 2+ goals.
  • Conceded 8 goals last 15 mins of away matches.

Conclusions

  • I would give Maritimo a shout today were they at home. Solid results v the top sides but away from home, they tend to concede 2+ goals in defeat.
  • Expect that today even if Maritimo score first.
  • Note Maritimo concede heavily late on, so if a draw or Maritimo lead coming to the 75th minute, lay the draw or Maritimo.

20:30 - Estoril Praia v Braga - 1.93 Braga

  • 1-3 Braga, 1-1 and 6-0 Braga last 3 head to heads.

Estoril (16th)

  • 3 consecutive losses.
  • Beat Sporting Lisbon 2-0 at home recently but lost 1-3 to Porto at home recently.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Bar that win against Sporting at home, Estoril have lost 9 other matches v top 7 teams.

Sporting Braga (4th)

  • 15 wins in 19 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • No draw in 13 matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • 4 of 6 losses came v top 2.
  • 17 wins and 2 losses outside the top 5.

Conclusions

  • Braga are more likely to win than lose today. Estoril did beat Sporting Lisbon very recently and that stood out but against other top 7 teams, they have lost every other match.
  • Logical expectation is for Braga to win.