Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

There will be no live chat today. I get the feeling people are otherwise engaged today . I am open to a live chat tomorrow if there is a need so please email me at [email protected] if you are interested. Have a good easter break.

Where I mention BANKER below, this signifies those matches where I think the favourites should win. These matches I would personally prioritise as regards DRT.

Remember the strategies:

  • Lay the 0-0 halftime score in certain signalled matches

  • Lay the 0-0 2nd half in matches where goals were expected but have not yet materialised

  • Lay the 2-2 scoreline, especially early on in matches. 2-2 shows us that teams are scoring and conceding.

  • Lay the away team leading 0-2 before halftime, especially if they are favourites. The home team is usually galvanised by the halftime team talk.

  • Lay the underdog if they score first in certain matches (especially BANKER matches where I would back the BANKERS if they conceded first at enhanced odds)

  • Lay the underdog  scoring early in the first half, in the HALF TIME market , especially in BANKER matches.

12:45 UK Arsenal v Liverpool - 1.85 home

Standout Stats

  • Both teams have scored in 4 of the last 5 head to heads, seeing total goals 4-2-6-3-4
  • This is 3rd v 5th . The title is not mathematically out of it for Arsenal but you'd think wins against top teams is critical to taking advantage of Chelsea slip ups. Liverpool are a short distance from a top 4 spot so points crucial here too
  • The International Break would have impacted both sides.

Arsenal

  • 8 match home winning streak, 6 overall.
  • No draw in 10 at home and 13 overall.
  • Scored in their last 14 home matches and last 10 overall.
  • 2 consecutive home clean sheets.
  • Only 1 loss at home v Man Utd.
  • Interestingly, when meeting top 7 sides, Arsenal tend to stop scoring the 2+ that they do at home v 8th and lower in the league.
  • Have scored 2+ goals in 13 of their last 15 matches but failed to score 2+ goals v Southampton and Tottenham recently.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches
  • No 0-0
  • 22 of 33 goals scored at home came in the 2nd half.
  • Scored first in 10 matches at home

Liverpool

  • 2 match winning streak away
  • No defeat in 6 away
  • Scored in their last 6.
  • 6 consecutive clean sheets away.
  • Losses away to 2nd and 4th this season.
  • All over 2.5 goals matches home and away v teams above them
  • Liverpool's recent away clean sheets are against, bar Southampton, mediocre league sides.
  • Eye-catching recent results have come at home really v Man City and Spurs.
  • Only 1 0-0 away
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Over 2.5 goals is the stat which springs to mind. We see it in head to heads and we see it when Liverpool play teams above them in the league.
  • Arsenal have scored in all home matches so faith in them scoring again if conceding or losing 0-2.
  • Arsenal struggle to score 2 goals v top 7 at home, something they find easy away from top 7. This might suggest we lay the first goal scorer today as Liverpool may be vulnerable and Arsenal may be vulnerable if failing to score 2 today.
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14:00 UK Atalanta v Torino - 2.7 home and away

Standout Stats

  • When you see 2 teams whose odds are 2.7, this suggests the market has not got a clue. I will take my cues from the market and leave this match alone today as far as trading is concerned.
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14:00 UK Cagliari v Lazio - 1.83 away

Standout Stats

  • 5 Lazio wins and a Cagliari 1-0 in the last 6 head to heads.
  • This is 18th v 3rd. 2nd spot is available for Lazio , what with Roma and their draw-itis. Cagliari will stay bottom 3 with a win today.

Cagliari

  • Conceded in their last 13 matches and last 14 at home
  • Scored and conceded in their last 7 home matches.
  • No win in 8 matches.
  • Only 2 wins at home v 15th and 19th.
  • Scored and conceded in 2 defeats and a 2-2 draw v top 4 at home.
  • Scored and conceded in 10 of their last 11 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Not beaten any top 8 side home or away
  • Only 1 0-0
  • Only 3 0-0's at halftime all season

Lazio Roma

  • 6 match winning streak, 3 away
  • No draw in 10 matches
  • Scored in their last 7 away matches.
  • 4 consecutive clean sheets.
  • 4 losses away v 8th, 10th, 13th and 19th.
  • 5 clean sheets in their last 6 matches.
  • Only 1 loss in their last 8 away matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 away
  • 71% of scorelines at halftime away are either 0-1 or 0-0
  • Conceded only 2 goals first half away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • A surprise to see Lazio not shorter based on very recent impressive clean sheet win run.
  • Their away form is inconsistent albeit not recently.
  • Cagliari are likely to concede at some stage, it seems inevitable and that's a great angle in today if 0-0 of if Lazio concede first.
  • Lay the 0-0 halftime score based on Cagliari.Lazio have not lost at halftime in 71% of away matches so if Cagliari are leading late on in the first half lay them.
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14:00 UK Palermo v AC Milan - 2.4 home

Standout Stats

  • 0-2 to Palermo earlier in the season.
  • This is 11th v 8th in Seria A

Palermo

  • No win in 5 and a 2 match losing streak
  • Only lost 2 at home v 1st and 3rd
  • Failed to score in their last 4 matches.
  • Failed to score in their last 2 at home.
  • All wins bar 1 at home v 14th and lower.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home

AC Milan

  • No win in 9 away
  • Scored and conceded in their last 3 matches.
  • Losses away v 1st, 3rd, 6th and 10th.
  • Only 2 away wins v 16th and 20th.
  • Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 9

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • This is not necessarily the AC Milan of reputation. I would not trust them today to come back from a goal down. Palermo infact have the better form, at home and I would consider laying Milan should they lead. They rarely win away and when they do win, they concede.
  • Palermo need to break the goalless duck.
  • This is a match of little appeal as the stats are messy.
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14:00 UK Genoa v Udinese - 2 home

Standout Stats

  • 3-3 and 2-4 genoa in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 9th v 12th in Seria A

Genoa

  • Only 2 wins in 13 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 6 home matches.
  • 3 of 4 losses at home came v 5th and higher .
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of 6 matches at home to teams below them in the league.
  • Only 1 clean sheet in 13 matches.
  • Only 1 loss home and away v teams below them
  • No 0-0 at home

Udinese

  • Failed to score in their last 2 away ( Genoa failed to score in their last 2 overall)
  • Only 3 away wins v 3rd, 9th and 13th
  • Only 3 wins in 19 matches saw both teams score.
  • Only 2 clean sheets in 19 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Both teams could score again today and I would venture towards backing 2-2 pre match and hoping for some goal action as per previous head to heads. Genoa have a hint of this at home to teams below them and have been scoring and conceding at home with regularity. Both sides need to end small runs without scoring.
  • Both teams are in poor form but could compliment each other.
  • A match of little appeal elsewhere though with 2 teams off the boil.
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14:00 UK Inter Milan v Parma - 1.2 home

Standout Stats

  • Draw, Inter, Parma in the last 3 head to heads.
  • This is 10th v 20th and Parma are down.

Inter Milan

  • Conceded in their last 6 matches.
  • Loss v 3rd bottom and draw v 2nd bottom at home.
  • Only 2 wins in 8 home matches.
  • No 0-0 at home

Parma

  • No win in 9 matches overall and 10 away.
  • 10 losses, a 0-0 and a win 2-3  v Chievo away from home.
  • Only 3 draws all season, 2 were 0-0
  • 7-2-2-3-3-0-4 conceded in recent away matches.
  • Failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 away
  • Conceded 15 goals in each half away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • The reason Inter are so short is because Parma are so poor. Inter themselves are inconsistent and untrustworthy but the market is emphatic today.
  • Parma have conceded an average of 3 goals away in the last 7 so if Inter can score, they should win.  Inter have a dire home record v bottom 3 at home which makes this an interesting match but pretty much a dead rubber for Parma.
  • Lay any late draw. Parma draws are only 0-0.
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14:00 UK Verona v Cesena - 1.83 home

Standout Stats

  • Only 1 seria A match, a 1-1 draw in head to heads
  • This is 16th v 19th in Seria A. I think Verona are safe from harm but Cesena are in trouble

Verona

  • Scored in their last 5 at home.
  • Only 5 wins at home, v 5th, 11th, 17th, 18th and 20th.
  • Unbeaten v teams below them at home.
  • Some consistent scoring lately against good teams - 2 v Genoa, 1 v Roma, 2 v Cagliari, 2 v Milan, 2 v Napoli
  • No 0-0 at halftime in 9 matches.
  • No 0-0 at home

Cesena

  • Conceded in their last 13 away matches
  • Only away win v bottom.
  • Tight recently against decent teams, 1-1 v Inter and 0-1 loss to Roma.
  • Only 3 clean sheets all season.
  • No 0-0 away
  • 16 of 25 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • I would favour the home side today based on their unbeaten run v teams below them in the league. It might be tight though, as Verona had 2 1-0 wins v teams near Cesena in the league.
  • With only 3 clean sheets, Cesena are likely to concede at some time, so lay any late 0-0 and lay Cesena if they score first.
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14:30 UK Bayer Leverkusen v Hamburg - 1.33 home

Standout Stats

  • 2 consecutive Hamburg wins in head to heads.
  • This is 4th v 16th in the German Bundesliga

Bayer Leverkusen

  • 4 match winning streak, 2 at home
  • Scored in their last 8 matches.
  • Kept 4 consecutive clean sheets.
  • Only 1 home loss, a 4-5 v 2nd in the league.
  • Don't tend to concede that many usually at home - 0-0-1-1-1-0-5-0-0. One exception!
  • Did lose 1-0 to Hamburg this season.
  • 2 0-0's at home
  • 19 of 27 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Hamburg

  • No win in 6
  • 3 match losing streak away
  • 6 defeats and a 0-0 away to top 8
  • Failed to score in their last 3
  • Failed to score in 4 of their last 6 aways
  • 3 0-0's away
  • 15 of 24 goals conceded away came 2nd half.
  • Only scored 6 away goals.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Hamburg have won the last 2 head to heads but recent form is not with them. Bayer have been really tight at home lately, Wolfsburg the exception, and will likely keep Hamburg to a single goal at best.
  • Hamburg have lost all bar one v top 8 away so should not win today.
  • Fear not if 0-0 at halftime. These 2 score and concede readily 2nd half. So lay any halftime 0-0 in the 2nd half.
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14:30 UK Wolfsburg v Stuttgart - 1.44 home

Standout Stats

  • 5 consecutive head to heads wins for Wolfsburg
  • This is 2nd v 18th. With a 10 point gap to Bayern , 2nd place seems Wolfsburg's only goal. Stuttgart are not out of salvaging their season.

Wolfsburg

  • 5 match home winning streak
  • No defeat in 13 at home, scoring in all of those 13.
  • Only 2 losses in their last 21 matches.
  • 11 wins in 12 home matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • No 0-0
  • Only 1 0-0 at home
  • Scored 15 in each half at home
  • Scored first in 12 of 13 matches at home

Stuttgart

  • No win in 4 away matches. conceded in their last 3 away
  • Have not beaten any top 7 side home or away.
  • Only 1 win in 10 came in their last match, at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Unlikely we will see a DRT here. Wolfsburg tend to score first at home and are undefeated at home.
  • Should Stuttgart score first, lay them
  • Lay the 0-0 halftime score.
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14:30 UK Werder Bremen v Mainz 05 - 2.37home

Standout Stats

  • Draw, Mainz, Mainz, Werder in recent head to heads.
  • This is 9th v 11th in the Bundesliga

Werder Bremen

  • No draw in 6 at home
  • Conceded in their last 4 at home
  • Defeats at home v 1st, 2nd, 5th and 12th.
  • Only 2 losses in 10 were at home to the top 2
  • No 0-0

Mainz

  • No draw in 3 away
  • Against teams above them in the league away, Mainz have only won 1 match.
  • Only 3 wins in 18 matches, but only 1 loss in 5 matches.
  • Only 2 0-0's away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Werder have the better form, for me , only losing to the top 2 in recent matches. I'll lay Mainz if they score first. They have trouble away to teams above them in the league.
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14:30 UK Hoffenheim v Borussia M'gladbach - 2.45 home

Standout Stats

  • 2-2 and 3-1 to Mgladbach in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 3rd v 7th in the Bundesliga.

Hoffenheim

  • 3 match home winning streak
  • 10 without a draw at home
  • Only 3 home losses v 4th, 9th and 12th
  • 3-4-3-0-1-2-2-3 scored in recent home matches.
  • 3 clean sheets in their last 4 matches.
  • Drew 1-1 with 2nd and lost 0-1 v 4th at home
  • No 0-0 at home
  • Scored first in 10 of 13 home matches.

Mgladbach

  • Scored in their last 6 matches
  • 2 match winning streak
  • Trouble away v top 10, losses to 2nd, 5th, 6th and 10th. 3 defeats were only 1 -0.
  • Scored 2 goals in each of their last 4 matches.
  • 6 clean sheets in their last 9 matches but no clean sheets in 2 of their last 3 away
  • Only 1 loss in 9 matches.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • I have noticed that the market generally gets it right with Hoffenheim. When under 2.00 they tend to win.
  • Both teams to score today given Hoff's recent home scoring record, despite Mgladbach's recent clean sheets.
  • Hoff are tight v top 4 at home so I would look at backing 1-1  pre match if the odds are high enough.
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15:00 UK Salzburg v Austria Vienna - 1.44 home

Standout Stats

  • 3-0 Vienna, 2-3 Vienna and 2-4 Salzburg in the last 3 head to heads.
  • This is 1st v 7th in the Austrian Bundesliga

Salzburg

  • Only 3 draws this season, all 2-2.
  • Conceded in their last 5 at home
  • No draw in 4 at home
  • Scored and conceded in 8 of their last 10 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets in 20 matches.
  • 85% over 2.5 goals at home
  • No 0-0

Austria Vienna

  • No win in 5 away
  • Conceded in their last 7 away
  • Only 1 win in 8 aways
  • Only 1 0-0 away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Both teams to score today has a great chance based on Salzburg at home.
  • Lay any side 2-0 up here today given the competitive head to heads.
  • This is another match where I will speculate on 2-2 and hope Salzburg are as vulnerable as they have been lately.
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15:00 UK Bolton v Blackpool - 1.55 home

Standout Stats

  • 3 draws and a Bolton win in the last 4 head to heads.
  • This is 17th v 24th in the English Championship

Bolton

  • Only losses at home v top 6. They are 17th because of their woeful away form.
  • No defeat in 3 at home
  • Scored in their last 8 at home
  • Wins v all bottom 5 at home scoring 3-3-2-3
  • All wins bar a draw v 14th and lower at home
  • Only 1 loss in their last 13 at home
  • Last 3 defeats were 1-0 away
  • Only 2 clean sheets in 17 matches.
  • Only 2 0-0's at home
  • 8 0-0's at halftime at home ( 42%)
  • 20 of 32 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Blackpool

  • No win in 11 matches and in their last 19 away
  • Conceded in their last 11 matches and in their last 15 away
  • 3 match losing streak away
  • All 4 wins this season came at home and were 1-0
  • 6 losses and a draw in their last 7 matches.
  • Failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • Failed to score in 6 of their last 8 away matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 away
  • 45 goals conceded away from home, pretty much split between halves.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Bolton are chosen by default as Blackpool are yet to win away. When Blackpool win, they win 1-0 at home.
  • Lay the 0-0 halftime score here in the expectation for goals.
  • If on their game, Bolton could replicate the 2/3 goals they scored against other bottom 5 sides at home.
  • Definitely lay Blackpool if they lead at any stage.
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15:00 UK Everton v Southampton - 2.5 home

Standout Stats

  • Southampton ( Saints) have won the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 13th v 6th in the Premiership. Saints are not out of a top 4 spot but need wins.

Everton

  • 2 match winning streak
  • No defeat in 5 at home
  • Have only beaten 1 of the top 11 played at home, albeit draws with 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 8th
  • No win home or away v top 8
  • Only 3 wins in 14 matches.
  • 4 draws and a win in their last 5 includes eyecatchers v Man City and a 0-0 with Liverpool
  • 3 0-0's at home
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home, 36% of matches.
  • Conceded 14 of 18 home goals in the 2nd half.

Southampton

  • No win in 2 away.
  • Only 2 away draws
  • All wins v 8th-12th away. Playing 13th today
  • 4 of 5 away defeats were 1-0
  • Only 1 loss in 6 away matches .
  • All defeats bar 2 came v top 8
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away
  • No away 0-0
  • 10 of 15 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Lay any late 0-0
  • A 0-0 at halftime would not surprise. These are 2nd half sides.
  • If Everton lead at halftime, lay them 2nd half. If they concede it tends to be 2nd half.
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15:00 UK Leicester v West Ham - 2.3 home

Standout Stats

  • Only 1 recent relevant head to head, a 2-0 West Ham win.
  • This is 20th v 9th and interesting that Leicester are marginal favourites with www.willhill.com

Leicester

  • No win in 8 matches
  • Failed to score in their last 3 home matches
  • Only 2 wins v 4th and 16th at home
  • 0-1 losses to 10th and 11th at home, playing 9th today
  • Failed to score in 4 of their last 5 home matches.
  • Only 2 0-0's at home

West Ham

  • No win in 7 away
  • Outside of the top 5 away, West Ham have lost only 1 match.
  • Both teams have scored in all away matches v teams below them in the league.
  • Only 2 wins in their last 13 were against Sunderland and Hull, so may cope with Leicester.
  • Only 1 0-0 away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • How West Ham are still top 10 is testament to early season exploits. They have beaten Hull and Sunderland , their only wins in 13 matches, and that could be enough for them to get something today against Leicester, another struggler. For that reason, I will favour West Ham today and lay Leicester if Leicester take the lead.
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15:00 UK West Brom v QPR - 1.73 home

Standout Stats

  • 3-2 to QPR the last time these 2 met .
  • West Brom were 0-2 up.
  • This is 14th v 19th.

West Brom

  • Only 3 losses in 11 matches v Spurs, Aston Villa and Man City
  • 5 wins in their last 7 home matches, 4 of them were 1-0. Typical Pulis.
  • 4 clean sheets in their last 6 matches.
  • Unbeaten at home to teams below them in the league- 3 clean sheet wins in 4 matches
  • No 0-0 at home

QPR

  • No draw in 10 overall and 14 away matches.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 5 matches and scored in their last 7 away matches.
  • 5 match losing streak, 2 away
  • Lost all away matches bar a win v Aston Villa.
  • In all defeats, QPR conceded at least 2 goals.
  • Only 1 0-0 was at home
  • 19 of 32 goals conceded away came in the first half.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • West Brom are statistically going to be the first goal scorers. Not sure therefore if we will see another DRT. They did blow a 0-2 lead last time these 2 met.
  • Lay the 0-0 halftime score based on QPR's concession rate at home.
  • Lay any late draw.
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15:00 UK Man Utd v Aston Villa - 1.3 home

Standout Stats

  • Man Utd have tended to win head to heads, bar a 1-1 draw last time out ( more to do with managerial United transition).
  • This is 4th v 16th. Oh so slender breathing space for Villa above the relegation zone.

Man Utd

  • 4 match winning streak and 4 match home winning streak
  • No draw in 10 matches at home
  • 2 consecutive clean sheets at home
  • All wins bar 2 defeats and a draw at home. Tend to falter at home v top 8.
  • Scored 2+ goals in all home wins v 12th and lower.
  • 7 wins in their last 9 matches.
  • Have only conceded 2 goals in a single match once at home and lost. Likelihood stats wise is that United will concede one max.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • No 0-0 at home
  • 21 of 33 goals scored at home came 1st half.
  • Scored first in 12 of 15 matches at home.

Aston Villa

  • New manager syndrome
  • No draw in 10 and in 8 away
  • 3 away wins, all 0-1 v Liverpool, Stoke and Palace.
  • Failed to score in 10 away matches.
  • After failing to score in 6 aways, they beat Sunderland 0-4.
  • 1-0-2-4-0 scored recently under Sherwood. A hint he is squeezing goals out of them
  • Only 1 win home and away v 9th and above was a 0-1 v Liverpool.
  • 8 1-0 losses away at halftime
  • Conceded 20 away, 12 in the 2nd half where they have scored only 1.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Sherwood has got Villa scoring more frequently, but losses away to Hull and Newcastle suggest there are still problems.
  • They tend to win 0-1 away if winning. Can you really see them keeping United out - a side scoring 2+ goals at home v lower half sides win all wins?
  • Strange things do happen at this part of the season, but United should win this comfortably enough.  Villa remember did fail to score in 10 of their away matches.
  • Lay the 0-0 halftime score based on United's impressive scoring 1st half at home.
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15:00 UK Swansea v Hull - 1.91 home

Standout Stats

  • 1-0 Hull, 1-0 Swansea in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 8th v 15th and Hull are not out of the relegation scrap.

Swansea

  • Conceded in their last 5 home matches.
  • All defeats at home v teams above them in the league.
  • 5 wins and a draw at home to 14th and lower.
  • 5 clean sheets in those matches.
  • At home, recent losses v Tottenham, Chelsea and Liverpool.
  • Failed to score in only 3 of their last 20 matches.
  • No 0-0 at home

Hull City

  • No win in 5 away
  • No win away to any team above them in the league
  • No win home or away v top 10
  • Failed to score in 4 of their last 5 away matches
  • 8 0-0's at halftime ( 53% of matches)
  • Opponents scored first in 10 of 15 away matches.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • It looks like struggles for Hull today. They cannot beat top 10 home or away, or any team above them in the league away from home.
  • Swansea have tended to keep clean sheets v 14th and lower at home.
  • DRT wise? Well don't worry if 0-0 at halftime. Over half of Hull's matches are so, away. Lay the 0-0 score 2nd half if this is the case
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15:00 UK Aberdeen v Partick - 1.55 home

Standout Stats

  • 2 consecutive Aberdeen wins to nil in recent head to heads.
  • This is 2nd v 9th in the SPL.

Aberdeen

  • Only 1 loss in 16 matches was v Celtic
  • 3 match home winning streak
  • Scored in their last 13 at home
  • Scored 2+ in their last 5 at home
  • No 0-0 at halftime in 12 matches.
  • 71% over 2.5 goals at home
  • No 0-0
  • 18 of 30 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Partick Thistle

  • No draw in 8 and in their last 3 away
  • 3 wins in their last 4 came to nil. Will they keep 2+ goal Aberdeen from scoring?
  • No 0-0 away
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Partick's recent wins came with clean sheets. I cannot see them keeping Aberdeen out , ergo no away win today?
  • Aberdeen have great incentive in keeping tabs on Celtic. They must be ready for a slip up in order to take advantage so wins at home are obligatory.
  • Expect 2+ goals from Aberdeen if in the form of recent home matches. Aberdeen are likely to score at some stage so lay any late 0-0
  • Lay the 0-0 halftime score and hope Aberdeen continue to avoid 0-0's at HT
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15:15 UK PAOK Salonika v Xanthi - 1.6 home

Standout Stats

  • 2 consecutive wins for PAOK 3-0, 1-2, and a Xanthi 4-2 win
  • This is 3rd v 6th in the Greek Super league

PAOK

  • Only 2 wins in 9 matches.
  • 3 consecutive home clean sheets
  • Only 2 losses v 2nd and 8th at home
  • Scored and conceded v 7th-14th inclusive at home. Playing 6th today
  • 2 0-0's in their last 3 home matches.
  • 4 clean sheets in 5 home matches.

Xanthi

  • No draw in 3 away
  • No win away v 11th and higher
  • Against these top 11 away ,Xanthi have conceded 2 goals in 7 of 8 matches
  • Only 1 loss in 12 matches was away to Olympiakos.
  • 5 clean sheets in their last 6 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Xanthi are actually the form side here based on recent matches but tend to concede at least 2 goals away v top 11. BUT Xanthi have only 1 recent loss in 12 and that was v Olympiakos.
  • Both sides have recent clean sheets so this is tough to call. As I say, recent form I would side with Xanthi and lay PAOK if they score first. But Xanthi keep conceding 2 goals away to top 11.
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17:00 UK Cordoba v Atletico Madrid - 1.44 away

Standout Stats

  • 4-2 to Atl Madrid in the earlier head to head.
  • Is is bottom v 4th. Cordoba stay bottom even with a win

Cordoba

  • 9 consecutive defeats, 4 at home
  • No win in 10 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 5 home matches.
  • All defeats at home to top 7
  • Only 1-2 defeats at home to 2nd and 3rd.
  • 4 consecutive home 1-2 defeats, scoring first in a couple of those.
  • Have lost all matches, home and away, v top 7 sides.
  • 3 0-0's at home
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home. ( 36%)

Atl Madrid

  • No win in 3 away
  • Failed to score in their last 3 away
  • Have won all matches home and away v 13th and lower in the league.
  • 2 consecutive away 0-0's
  • 3 draws in their last 4 matches
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • A teams losing all matches to top 7 home and away plays a team winning all matches home and away v 13th and lower.
  • Looks clear cut. But note Cordoba battle in defeat. 4 1-2 defeats in a row at home attest to this so if Atl Madrid cannot score a 2nd they are in trouble today.
  • If Cordoba score first, lay them, because they have a history of conceding once ahead.
  • Fear not if 0-0 at halftimt. Both sides are about 36% with halftime 0-0's
  • Atl Madrid have a 3 match run without scoring and 2 match 0-0 run to end. So lay the 0-0 as late as possible in the hope they end these 2 unwelcome streaks.
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17:00 UK Benfica v Nacional (Por) - 1.22 home

Standout Stats

  • 5 consecutive Benfica head to head wins
  • This is 1st v 9th in the Portugeuse Primera Liga. Benfica must win to keep the pressure on Porto.

Benfica

  • Only 3 defeats, one came in their last match. 2 consecutive defeats? Hmmmm.
  • All wins at home bar a 1-1 v 3rd.
  • 10 clean sheets in the other 11 matches at home.
  • 10 match home winning streak
  • Scored in their last 12 at home
  • 9 consecutive home clean sheets
  • Failed to score in only 1 match.
  • No 0-0
  • 19 of 32 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • Only conceded 1 goal at home

Nacional

  • Only 2 away wins were 2-3
  • Lost to all top 5 away
  • Scored and conceded in their last 6 aways
  • Scored and conceded in 9 of their last 11 matches.
  • Recent 1-1 with Porto was at home but interesting.
  • Have conceded at least 2 goals in all bar 1 away match v 15th and higher.
  • Only 1 0-0 away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Benfica should win today  - if you keep clean sheets you merely need to score.  Nacional are likely to concede at least 2 so lay them if they score first.
  • Nacional do score and concede but Benfica do keep clean sheets so no congruity there.
  • Benfica have been good for goals before halftime so lay the 0-0 halftime score. Benfica are unlikely to lose 2 consecutive matches so let's hope Nacional lead in the 90th minute so we can lay them!
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17:30 UK Vitesse v Groningen - 1.33 home

Standout Stats

  • Groningen are unbeaten in the last 6 head to heads. Now that's something you don't see when the opposition is a 1.33 shot!!
  • This is 5th v 11th in the Eredivisie in Holland.

Vitesse

  • A top 4 spot is up for grabs.
  • 4 match home winning streak
  • No draw in 6 at home
  • Scored in their last 10 matches.
  • Only 1 loss at home v 1st in the league
  • Have scored 2+ goals in all home matches v 7th and lower.
  • 8 wins and a draw in their last 9 matches.
  • 5 wins in their last 6 home matches. Only recent loss was a 0-1 v PSV
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home
  • 20 of 29 goals scored at home came 1st half.

FC Groningen

  • Have conceded in their last 14 away matches.
  • Scored in their last 10 matches.
  • No win in 6 away matches
  • 5 losses and a 2-2 draw in away match v top 7
  • Only 2 wins in 14 matches came at home.
  • Scored and conceded in 13 of their last 16 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • No 0-0
  • 22 of 29 goals conceded away came 2nd half.
  • Opponents scored first in 11 of 14 away.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • The first thing to note is the head to heads. If you believe in "bogey teams" then lay this Vitesse side in the hope head to heads supercede recent form.
  • If we look at recent form, Vitesse are in excellent form and should be favourited here against a Groningen side who may score, but not win. They have a terrible record v top 7 sides.
  • Lay the 0-0 halftime score.
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17:30 UK Chelsea v Stoke - 1.28 home

Standout Stats

  • 3-0 and 2-0 for Chelsea in 2014 head to heads.
  • This is 1st v 10th  and Chelsea have a game in hand

Chelsea

  • Only 2 losses
  • No win in 2 at home
  • No defeat in 14 home matches
  • Scored in their last 16 matches and last 14 at home.
  • Wins at home v 7th-16th inclusive.
  • 3 1-1 draws in their last 4 home matches. Nerves? Chelsea scored first in each of those matches.
  • Failed to score in only 1 match.

Stoke

  • No draw in 6
  • Did beat Man City 0-1 away but lost to 2nd-6th inclusive away.  Stoke did tend to lose to really solid teams, but lost 2 consecutive now to West Brom and Crystal Palace.
  • No 0-0

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Chelsea keep drawing 1-1 in recent home matches and with Stoke having no draw in 6,  you'd hope they avoid the draw and replicate the head to head wins.  If Stoke score first, they are layable given those Chelsea 1-1's
  • If the match is 1-0 to Chelsea for a while, I would lay Chelsea. They scored first in their 3 1-1 draws at home recently.
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17:30 UK Borussia Dortmund v Bayern Munich - 2.05 away

Standout Stats

  • Bayern, Dortmund, Bayern in the last 3 league head to heads. Overall, it's been Dortmund, Bayern, Dortmund, Bayern, Dortmund, Bayern - you get the idea.
  • As this is a local derby I won't research fully , just take a glance.
  • Bayern have only lost 2, and lost in their last match. Will they really post 2 consecutive defeats?
  • Dortmund are unbeaten in 7.
  • 2-1 win for Bayern earlier in the season

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • I would favour Bayern simply based on them not losing 2 consecutive matches . Dortmund are top 10 now, and have a decent unbeaten run but their woes this season could be exposed by a superb Bayern side. From a head to head perspective, these 2 win in turn, and it's Dortmund's this time if this continues.
  • Both teams to score looks likely and a hope Bayern can score next if Dortmund score first.
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20:00 UK Juventus v Empoli - 1.36 home

Standout Stats

  • Only 1 recent head to head, a 0-2 Juventus win
  • This is 1st v 13th and a 14 point gap at the top might see complacency for Juve.

Juventus

  • Only 1 loss all season.
  • Unbeaten at home
  • 6 match home winning streak
  • No defeat in 19
  • All clean sheets bar 1 v 10th and lower at home
  • 3 consecutive 1-0 wins.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • No 0-0 at home
  • 18 first half and 16 2nd half goals scored at home

Empoli

  • No defeat in 8 matches and in 4 away
  • No win in 7 away
  • 9 away draws
  • Only away win v bottom side
  • 6 draws in their last 7 away matches.
  • Only 2 losses in 18 matches sees 11 draws.
  • Only 1 0-0 away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Complacency a problem for Juventus now Roma have effectively handed the title over to them.
  • Empoli have lost only 2 of 18 matches but 11 draws tells you their Achilles Heel. it suggests we lay Empoli if they score first.
  • Juventus are likely to score at home , so have faith if they are behind or it is 0-0 for a while.
  • Lay any late draw in the hope Empoli do not draw away again.
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