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ENGLISH PREMIERSHIP

12:30 - Stoke v Leicester - 2.6 Stoke

  • As I hope you can tell from the market, this is a tough-to-call match.
  • 2 2-2 draws for Stoke at home in head to heads. Leicester have won home head to heads. Or in other words, Leicester are unbeaten in 4.
  • Please note: new manager Leicester could mean a change in tactics making previous form irrelevant.
  • I will look at Stoke. Only 3 wins for them. 4 losses in 6 matches. Only 2 clean sheets.
  • 2-1-2-1-4-2-1 goals before halftime in recent Stoke matches.
  • Leicester won 2-0 at home v Everton under their new manager. A great start. That's 2 consecutive matches, 2 consecutive wins scoring 2 goals.
  • As I say it is tough to read Leicester under new management. Stoke are obviously in poor form and if Leicester show an ounce of what they showed at home v Everton, they are favoured.
  • A watching brief though and any play will be via the in-play stats.

15:00 - Huddersfield v West Brom - 2.72 Huddersfield

Huddersfield

  • Failed to score in 6 of 8 matches but oddly beat Man Utd 2-1 at home.
  • Win, Draw, Draw, Loss, Win at home.
  • Not played a bottom 12 side at home yet (West Brom are 15th).

West Brom

  • Only 2 wins were 1-0, first 2 matches of the season.
  • Loss, Loss, Draw, Loss away last 4 matches.
  • 1-1-0-1-0 scored away.
  • Not led at halftime away.
  • 5 of 7 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • 2.72 odds. You know by now....market cannot split these 2.
  • Huddersfield are reasonable at home. Wheels are falling off for West Brom. They cannot score that 2nd goal away and if that continues they should be layed if scoring first.

15:00 - Newcastle v Bournemouth - 2.02 Newcastle

Newcastle

  • Only 2 losses in 8 matches.
  • 3 losses were only 1-0 so do not get pummelled.
  • 1-1 and 1-0 the last 2 home matches.
  • All wins v 14th and lower. Play 19th today.

Bournemouth

  • Only 2 wins.
  • 4 losses and a single win away.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime and only one ended 0-0 at fulltime.

Conclusions

  • A good run from Newcastle and they are 100% when playing 14th and lower. With Bournemouth in 19th, Newcastle should be eyeing at least a point today.
  • Newcastle tend to lose 1-0 if they lose and with Bournemouth keeping only 1 clean sheet, it suggests Newcastle should not lose today.
  • Note Bournemouth have had a few 0-0's at halftime and only one of them was 0-0 at fulltime so that is a ready angle.

15:00 - Southampton v Burnley - 1.7 Southampton

Southampton

  • Only 3 defeats.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • Not beaten a top 14 team. Burnley are 7th.

Burnley

  • Only 2 losses.
  • Win, Draw, Draw, Win, Loss away.
  • 3-1-1-1-0 scored in aways.
  • 5 of 6 goals scored away came 1st half.
  • 5 of 7 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Burnley seem more likely to score first half and concede 2nd half.
  • This is not a match which greatly appeals. Burnley do not tend to score that many away and Southampton's goalscoring woes are well known.
  • Can we back 0-0 pre match and hope the faultering attack line continues?

15:00 - Swansea v Brighton - 2.36 Swansea

Swansea

  • A really poor start. 2 wins only v Huddersfield and Palace.
  • 0-0-1-2-1 scored at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • No draw at home.
  • 5 goals conceded last 15 mins of home matches.

Brighton

  • Loss, Draw, Loss, Loss Win away.
  • Only 3 over 2.5 goals matches.

Conclusions

  • Research ended early for me. Not an appetizing match at all for me to trade. I do note Brighton's tendency to under 2.5 goals but I cannot make an argument really for either side.

17:30 - West Ham v Liverpool - 1.75 Liverpool

  • 2-2 and 0-4 Liverpool in the last 2 head to heads.

West Ham

  • Only 2 wins.
  • Not led at halftime at home.
  • No draw at home.
  • No win v top 12 teams (Liverpool are 6th).
  • All 5 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Liverpool

  • 2 defeats came away v Man City and Tottenham.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in all bar 1 away match.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Not played any side 12th and lower away (West Ham are 16th).

Conclusions

  • On form, Liverpool should not lose today but may concede. Liverpool are the likeliest first scorers and scorers before halftime.
  • West Ham are yet to score first half.

FRENCH LIGUE 1

16:00 - Angers v Paris St-G - 1.2 PSG

  • 2 consecutive 2-0 wins for PSG in league head to heads.
  • This is a post-Champions League match.

Angers

  • Only 2 defeats were 1-0.
  • 7 draws this season were all score draws.
  • Only 2 clean sheets. Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Not led at halftime at home.
  • 3 score draws v top 6 teams.
  • Not won a home match.
  • No 0-0.

PSG

  • All wins bar 2 draws.
  • 2 draws in their last 3 aways.
  • 0-0, 1-2, 2-2 last 3 aways all in or around a Champions League competition.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • Not led at halftime away. 2 0-0's away.
  • All wins v 10th and lower, scoring 2 goals minimum.
  • 10 of 12 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Angers keep things tight but still have not won a home match. That should not change today.
  • If PSG have not scored by halftime, fear not, they score a huge amount 2nd half away from home.
  • PSG have failed to score only once so do expect an eventual goal. Cavani is in top form.
  • Angers are laying if scoring first given their score draws v top 6 teams.

19:00 - ESTAC Troyes v Strasbourg - 2.72 Strasbourg

  • The market relays a tough encounter so a quick review of the stats.
  • I think these 2 are newly promoted.
  • Only 3 wins for Troyes. Only 2 wins Strasbourg.
  • 3 score draws and a win in 4 for Strasbourg.
  • 2 clean sheets v 1 clean sheet.
  • Troyes away from home have 2 wins and a draw v teams below them in the league (where Strasbourg reside). So with home advantage.....?
  • Strasbourg 1-1 draw v 14th and 1-2 win v 16th and they play 15th today.
  • We can make an argument for either side today, hence the 2.72 odds... A match for in-play stats.

19:00 - Monaco v Guingamp - 1.45 Monaco

  • 2-2 and 1-2 Monaco in the last 2 head to heads.

Monaco

  • Only 2 losses came away.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • No 0-0.

Guingamp

  • 3 of 4 wins came at home.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Conceded 2+ in each of their last 4 away.
  • All defeats v top 8 and Monaco are 2nd.
  • 5 of 6 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Unlikely we will see a trade as Monaco tend to score first and lead at halftime. Guingamp tend to concede 2 away and lose to top 8 so it does look a little straightforward.

19:00 - Nantes v Toulouse - 2.04 Nantes

  • 1-1 and 0-0 Nantes in the last 2 head to heads.

Nantes

  • Only 3 defeats, 2 came 1st 2 matches of the season and the 3rd last match.
  • 0-0-1-1-2 goals scored at home.
  • 1-0-0-0-1 conceded at home.
  • Not conceded a first half goal at home.

Toulouse

  • Unbeaten in 4 matches.
  • 3 consecutive clean sheets.
  • 0-0-1-1 scored in the last 4 away.
  • 7 consecutive under 2.5 goals.
  • 3 away losses came v top 4. Nantes are 5th.

Conclusions

  • Nantes are defensively strong and with Toulouse scoring only 0-0-1-1 away recently it seems advantage Nantes.
  • Nantes last loss was 1-0 and that is the likely scoreline if they lose today.
  • You might want to back 0-0 pre match given the defensive Nantes and Toulouse's 7 under 2.5 goals matches. I tend to trade out if lucky enough to see a 0-0 at halftime.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 - Augsburg v Leverkusen - 2.1 Leverkusen

  • 3-3, 0-0. 1-3 Bayer in the last 3 head to heads.

Augsburg

  • Only 3 defeats.
  • 2 defeats came last 2 home matches - 1-2 defeats.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Only home defeats v current top 4 teams.
  • BUT have conceded 2 goals at home v 2nd, 4th and 6th and play 8th today.
  • 6 of 8 goals scored at home came 1st half.

Leverkusen

  • Only 1 loss in 7.
  • Scored and conceded in 8/10 matches.
  • Scored in every match.
  • No 0-0 at halftime.
  • Scored and conceded in all aways.
  • Not led at halftime away.
  • Only 1 away win.
  • 3 of 4 wins came at home v bottom 4 sides.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals.
  • 8 of 9 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • For me, Leverkusen's form may be flattering. 3 wins came at home v the current bottom 4.
  • Only 1 away win Leverkusen.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • I think both teams could score today. Leverkusen may get a chance here as Augsburg have conceded 2 goals at home v top 6 teams. They are playing 8th today.
  • Lay any late 0-0.

14:30 - Freiburg v Schalke - 2.1 Schalke

  • 1-1 and 2-0 Freiburg in the last 2 head to heads.

Freiburg

  • Only 1 win was a 3-2 at home v Hoffenheim.
  • Scored and conceded last 3 at home.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 4 draws in 5 at home.
  • No opponent has led yet at halftime at home.

Schalke

  • Unbeaten in 4.
  • Loss, Win, Loss, Win away.
  • Not led at halftime away.
  • 4 wins in 5 v 11th and lower (Freiburg are 15th).

Conclusions

  • Not a match which greatly appeals to me. Strictly, Schalke should feel confident with their wins v 11th and lower with Freiburg in 15th.
  • Can we rely on this as showing Schalke as most likely not to lose today?

14:30 - Hamburg v Stuttgart - 2.56 Hamburg

  • Both teams have scored in the last 3 head to heads, 2 2-1 home wins Stuttgart and 3-2 Hamburg win at home.
  • 2.56 odds tells me this is probably a match where we find angles difficult.

Hamburg

  • 7 defeats and a 0-0 last 8 matches.
  • Started scoring again albeit last 2 aways.
  • 1-0-0-0-0 scored at home. Where is Kevin Keegan when you need him?
  • 5 of 6 goals conceded came 2nd half.

Stuttgart

  • All away defeats.
  • Not met a bottom 6 side away.
  • 7 of 10 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • I don't think I'm be jetting off to watch this one! The market was spot on wasn't it? Would you trust these 2? One team has failed to score in 4 at home, the other has lost all away matches and are yet to play bottom 6 sides.
  • If you are doing research yourself, the market can help you determine which matches to prioritise. Matches with a 2.56 odds favourite are NOT to be prioritised.

14:30 - Mgladbach v Mainz - 1.71 Mgladbach

  • 1-2 Mgladbach and 1-0 Mgladbach in the last 2 head to heads.

Mgladbach

  • 4 wins and 2 losses last 6 matches.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • Scored and conceded in 4 of 5.
  • No home draw.
  • Strong 2nd half scoring and conceding bias at home.

Mainz

  • Only 1 loss in 5.
  • No win away saw 3 losses.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • No win at halftime away.
  • Failed to score in 3/4 away.

Conclusions

  • On form Mgladach are the likeliest here. Mainz have failed to score in 3/4 away matches and Mgladbach have a 100% win record v teams around Mainz in the league.
  • Note Mgladbach's strong 2nd half goals bias so if 0-0 at halftime, take it on 2nd half.

14:30 - RB Leipzig v Hannover - 1.49 Leipzig

Leipzig

  • All 3 defeats came away from home.
  • Unbeaten at home, 3 wins and a draw.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Not played top 4 at home yet (Hannover are 4th, Leipzig are 3rd).

Hannover

  • 2 consecutive wins after 2 consecutive defeats - the only defeats this season.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 away matches.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Not played a top 6 side away.

Conclusions

  • Hannover do 0-0's at halftime away BUT no 0-0's at fulltime so a ready angle there for you -expect 2nd half goals.
  • Leipzig are awfully short considering they are playing a current top 4 side.
  • Hannover are scoring and conceding now so take a chance and lay any Hannover lead. Leipzig are looking good at home so should respond.

17:30 - Dortmund v Bayern Munich - 2.16 Bayern

  • Last 2 head to heads were cup matches a 2-3 Dortmund and a 2-2. 1-0 home win Dortmund in the league last year.

Dortmund

  • Despite their hiccups they are only 3 points shy of Bayern.
  • No win in 3 sees 2 defeats - Dortmund have scored 2 goals in each of those 3 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 5 matches.
  • Scored in all bar 1 match this season.
  • Significantly have not beaten a top 5 side despite scoring 2 goals v them (3 matches).

Bayern

  • Only 1 loss was a pre Champions league loss.
  • Scored in all bar 1 away.
  • More vulnerable away as seen by defeat to 8th and 2-2 v 11th.

Conclusions

  • soccerstats.com is down as I write so this is a bare set of stats.
  • I would have to back 2-2 and 3-3 pre-match while Dortmund are in this habit of scoring 2 goals and not winning v top 6 teams.
  • It does tell us to lay Dortmund if they lead by 1 or 2 goals.

ITALIAN SERIA A

17:00 - Bologna v Crotone - 1.85 Bologna

  • 2 consecutive Bologna 1-0 wins in head to heads.

Bologna

  • 3 consecutive defeats.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • All losses v top 10 teams.
  • No 0-0.
  • 4 goals conceded at home last 15 mins of matches.

Crotone

  • Only 2 wins.
  • No away wins sees 4 defeats.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • All defeats at halftime away.
  • All defeats away v teams above them in the league (Bologna are).
  • 9 of 13 goals conceded away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Bologna are favoured on form today despite 3 consecutive defeats.
  • Crotone are struggling v teams above them in the league so I would expect Crotone to continue struggling.
  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

19:45 - Genoa v Sampdoria - 2.6 Sampdoria

  • 2-1 and 0-1 Sampdoria in head to heads.

Genoa

  • Having a poor season but scoring at home v the big boys.
  • 2-2-0-1-2 scored at home.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • No home win.
  • No win at halftime at home.
  • Scored 2 goals v top 4 at home but lost each match. Sampdoria are 6th.

Sampdoria

  • Only 2 losses came away last 2 matches.
  • 1-1-3-2-4 goals before halftime recently.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.

Conclusions

  • A pattern emerges with Genoa. On evidence v the top 4, they are gettable even if scoring 2 goals. Sampdoria we know have goals in them so are equipped to react to a 2-0 Genoa lead.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on Samps's recent matches.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

17:30 - AZ Alkmaar v Willem II - 1.39 AZ

  • 2 AZ 2-0 wins in head to heads ended with a 1-1 last match.

AZ

  • 3 defeats this season.
  • 2 defeats in their last 3 at home.
  • No draw at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 8th and lower.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals.
  • 5 of 7 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Willem II

  • No draw saw only 3 wins.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • 2 wins in their last 3 away.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • All defeats v the top 10 (AZ are 4th).

Conclusions

  • Yes Willem II are winning away but contextually, they are losing when they play the top 10, and meet 4th today.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • I would lay Willem II if Willem score first.

SPANISH LA LIGA

12:00 - Valencia v Leganes - 1.51 Valencia

  • Valencia tend to win head to heads.

Valencia

  • Unbeaten.
  • 6 consecutive wins scoring 5-3-3-6-4-2 goals.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • 2-2-3-0-1 conceded recently. No wonder they need to score heavily!
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
  • Not conceded a first half goal at home.

Leganes

  • No draw away sees Win, Loss, Win , Win, Loss.
  • 5 clean sheets in their last 6 matches.
  • Lost 2-1 away v 5th and play current 2nd so those clean sheets might be breached today.
  • 5 of 6 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Due deference to Leganes recent clean sheet run but significantly they have just ended that clean sheet run with a 2-1 away loss v 5th in the league.
  • They play 2nd today who are 'doing a Keegan at Newcastle'. Conceding heavily but we will score one more than you!. It is working with 6 consecutive wins despite conceding 2-2-3-0-1 recently.
  • On that basis, it all points to Valencia blasting away their opponents today unless Leganes clean sheetery returns.
  • In expectation for goals, lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. In fact Valencia on form should lead at halftime.

15:15 - Deportivo v Atletico Madrid - 1.87 Atl Madrid

  • 1-0 Madrid and 1-1 last 2 head to heads. That's all they need in their current slump. A team with recent form against them.

Deportivo

  • 3 wins in 3 at home.
  • Only 2 clean sheets. Failed to score only twice.
  • No home draw.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Lost 0-3 at home to 3rd. Playing 4th today.

Atl Madrid

  • For all of their woes, they are still unbeaten.
  • 3 draws in 4 now, the last 2 draws were 1-1 and that was the midweek scoreline when 1.12 favourites in Europe.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • All wins v 14th and lower (Depor are 16th currently).

Conclusions

  • On season form, Madrid have the beating of teams 14th and lower so really should seek a win today but their confidence is fragile and their forward line is faltering. An inability to get that 2nd goal means 1-1's are becoming frequent occurrences and that was the scoreline last year when these 2 met.
  • With only 2 clean sheets for Depor, Atl Madrid will have a chance to score. Depor, no draw at home, is that the catalyst for a Madrid win? Madrid remain unbeaten and should do so again today in what could be another score draw if they are not careful.

19:45 - Barcelona v Sevilla - 1.23 Barcelona

  • Barcelona tend to win head to heads, scoring 2 goals at least.
  • Both top 5 sides.

Barcelona

  • All wins bar a single draw.
  • 2 goals minimum scored in each home match.
  • 4 clean sheets in 5 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Not played a top 7 side yet at home.
  • 100% over 1,5 goals.
  • Scored first in all home matches.
  • Led at halftime in 4/5 home matches.

Sevilla

  • Began the season in the kind of form I thought would see them as contenders. But now 3 losses in 5 matches which came away from home.
  • Failed to score in those 3 aways.
  • Not led at halftime away.
  • 4-0 v 2nd and 2-0 v 4th and play 1st today away.
  • 5 of 7 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Sevilla's poor form v top 4 away suggests a home win for Barcelona who are likely to score 2 goals at least. Barca were kept very quiet mid week in the Champions League but are scoring 2 goals at least at home.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • We certainly should not see a 0-0 today 100% over 1.5 goals for Barcelona who could lead at halftime.

SCOTTISH PREMIER LEAGUE

12:30 - St Johnstone v Celtic - 1.26 Celtic

  • Celtic love visiting St J. Although St. J have scored 2 goals in each of Celtic's last 2 visits, St J have not won.

St Johnstone

  • 4 defeats in 5 now and failed to score in those last 5.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.

Celtic

  • Unbeaten.
  • 100% win record away.
  • Scored in every match.
  • Scored 2+ goals in each of their last 4 away matches.

Conclusions

  • If you don't score, you don't win. St. J. have failed to score in 5 now, not quite the preparation for a team scoring 2+ goals in each of their last 4 away matches.
  • Even if St.J. do score, historically Celtic outscore them. It was happier times when they drew 1-1 with Celtic earlier in the campaign but that earlier form has gone.
  • Celtic have tended to conjure a goal before halftime and it has been late as well so note that today.

15:00 - Hamilton v Aberdeen - 1.63 Aberdeen

  • Hamilton have won the last 2 home head to heads 1-0 but Aberdeen won the last 2 head to heads.

Hamilton

  • All defeats at home v top 7 scoring in each defeat.
  • Only 2 under 2.5 goals matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Scored in all bar the last home match.

Aberdeen

  • Only lost to Celtic this season.
  • All away wins have been a 1 goal in it win, 2 0-1's, a 3-4 and a 1-2.
  • 3 consecutive away clean sheets.
  • Scored in all bar 1 away.

Conclusions

  • soccerstats.com temporarily down so default fcstats.com.
  • Hamilton don't look as if they can replicate their 2 1-0 home head to head wins. 3 consecutive clean sheets for Aberdeen suggests that they score, they win.
  • And with only 2 clean sheets for hamilton, that is possible.
  • Do note that Hamilton have lost to top 7 at home and scored in each defeat so that is another angle especially if they score first.

15:00 - Hibernian v Dundee - 1.45 Hibs

  • 1-1, 1-0 Hibs, 1-1 in the last 3 head to heads.

Hibernian

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • Only 1 win in 4 at home.
  • Only clean sheet at home came last match.
  • Scored in all bar one match.
  • 1-1 draw with Dundee earlier in the season.

Dundee

  • Conceded in every match.
  • Lost all bar 1 match away.
  • Lost to top 4 away and play 3rd today.

Conclusions

  • Hibs look to be strong favourites by default here as Dundee are bottom of the league, are conceding in every match and have 4 losses and a draw away.
  • Hibs are top 4 currently and Dundee have lost to all top 4 away. There are no clues within the current form to suggest a sudden Dundee resurgence today.

15:00 - Rangers v Partick - 1.37 Rangers

  • Rangers regularly score 2 goals v Partick in head to heads.

Rangers

  • Only 2 defeats v Hibs and Celtic.
  • Strangely far better away than at home.
  • Only 2 clean sheets. Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Only defeats v top 3 teams.
  • 5 of 7 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Partick

  • Only 2 wins came within the last 3 matches.
  • 1-0-1-0-0 goals scored away.
  • Only 2 clean sheets came last 2 matches.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime.
  • All defeats away v top 6.

Conclusions

  • Rangers are actually better travellers this season but the fact is that they have only lost to top 3 sides this season and are unlikely to lose to a Partick side losing in all aways v top 6 sides.
  • It was 2-2 earlier in the season so lay Partick if Partick scores first.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on Partick. Only 2 clean sheets for Rangers so Rangers may concede today.