Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

Review of yesterday's matches. The first question to ask you is "did you lay Novak Djokovic after he went 2-0 up in sets? "Tell me you did, please. 1.04 his odds were. Andy Murray is now in the midst of an Almighty tussle. Novak's odds are 1.13 so there is a profit to be had. But me? I'm holding out for a Murray Magic Miracle (Registered trade mark). Welcome to Belarus Football. The first game saw FC Minsk win 1-0 with a 90th minute goal. This is what we face off season. A poor league. This was compounded by Dinamo Brest beating Dinamo Minsk 1-0. As you can see, it is at this time of year that I rather reluctantly research matches. I am a Bundesliga, Premiership, Seria A, La Liga football trader and for good reason. The teams tend to follow the form. The lower down the food chain we go (Belarus!) the more unpredictable things become. In Norway's Tromso v Molde match, there was a goal before halftime. Both teams did not score and Molde did not win. I called the Galway v Cork match correct. Cork won 1-3  _Cork did not lose. Dundalk v Bohemians was a great trading match. Why? Bohemians scored first, via an own goal, in the first 3 minutes. Now, remember, if the underdog scores first and early, lay them in the HALFTIME market. Dundalk equalised by halftime. That was my angle in there. Dundalk ended up losing 1-2. Well , well, well, Scotland in 1-0 win shocker!  That's the 5th 1-0 result recently in Scottish friendlies. UCD did outscore Cabinteely 6-1. The in-play stats were emphatic here in favour of UCD and were this a live-chat environment, I would have certainly called for a lay the 0-0 halftime score as late as possible. 3-1 before halftime, all goals coming 40th+ minute! Sligo Rovers conceded 3+ goals yet again as Shamrock won 3-1. There was another DRT match, in Estonia as Paide took the early lead v Levadia Tallin. This was not a match I researched but the odds for Levadia caught my attention. Remember, when an underdog scores first and early , what do we do? Lay them in the halftime market or back Levadia in the halftime market. 1-0 after 3 minutes and 1-3 by halftime. 1.75 odds for Levadia were massive and a big over-reaction. On to today.... Odds taken from www.willhill.com

Where I mention BANKER below, this signifies those matches where I think the favourites should win. These matches I would personally prioritise as regards DRT.

Remember the strategies:

Lay the 0-0 halftime score in certain signalled matches.

Lay the 0-0 2nd half in matches where goals were expected but have not yet materialised.

Lay the 2-2 scoreline, especially early on in matches. 2-2 shows us that teams are scoring and conceding.

Lay the away team leading 0-2 before halftime, especially if they are not the pre-market favourites. The home team is usually galvanised by the halftime team talk.

Lay the underdog if they score first in certain matches (especially BANKER matches where I would back the BANKERS if they conceded first at enhanced odds).

Lay the underdog scoring early in the first half, in the HALF TIME market, especially in BANKER matches.

Do note matches where one team is red carded. The opponents do tend to score next more often than not.

13:45 UK Malaysia v Hong Kong - 1.8 home

Standout Stats

  • 1-1 the last time these 2 met in a friendly in 2012.
  • Only 1 win in 15 friendlies for malaysia suggests Hong Kong must be pants if Malaysia are 1.8 shots today with THAT record!
  • Malaysia lost their last home match 0-3 v Syria. Surely not 2 consecutive home defeats?
  • Well well, Hong Kong have beaten Singapore 1-0, 1-0 and 2-1 in friendlies recently which is eye-catching. They lost 0-3 to malaysia in October 2012 in a friendly.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • This is not a match in which I would be confident in the home side. A spanner in the works? Hong Kong's consistent beating of an okay yard stick in Singapore.
  • Another in the list of matches to avoid today!
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14:30 UK Valerenga v Rosenborg - 1.91 away

Standout Stats

  • 2-1 Rosenborg, 2-2, 3-2 Rosenborg in head to heads.
  • This is 3rd v 1st in the Norwegian Eliteserien after 11 matches.

Valeranga

  • 4 match winning streak
  • 5-4-3-4 scored in their last 4 matches.
  • 2 losses in their last 3 home matches.
  • Failed to score in only 1 match
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime
  • Lost 0-2 at home to current 2nd in the league.

Rosenborg

  • Scored in their last 11 matches and conceded in their last 4 matches
  • Scored and conceded in their last 4 away matches.
  • Only 1 loss this season, a shock 3-2 v Mjondalen saw Rosenborg 0-2 up at halftime.
  • They have now conceded 3 and 2 in their last 2 matches.
  • Scored in all matches
  • Only 3 clean sheets all season
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime
  • A tendency to score and concede away but tend to outscore opponents apart from Mjondalen
  • Messed up at 1.21 odds last match - 1-1 draw

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Lay the 0-0 halftime score.
  • Both teams to score.
  • I expect an entertaining afternoon with the potential for 2 goals from each side and Rosenborg to outscore Valeranga. Lay any side 2-0 up.
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15:00 UK AGF Aarhus v AB - 1.83 home

Standout Stats

  • 5 consecutive AGF head to head wins, the most recent and relevant were 1-5 and 0-1 away from home
  • This is 11th v 2nd in the Danish 1st Division.
  • This is the last match of the season. AGF remain 2nd regardless of the result. It seems that AB could retain 1st division status if they win today and Fredericia lose or draw.

AGF Aarhus

  • 3 consecutive score draws and a 0-1 loss to Fredericia. A case of season over?
  • 1-1-4-0-1 scored at home recently. The 4 scored v bottom side.

AB

  • 2 consecutive wins , albeit at home. Winning at precisely the right time!
  • 5 defeats and a draw though in their last 6 away matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet in 14 matches the eternal worry for AB in their search for a win. It suggests they must score 2 goals away from home today minimum. That is a feat they have only managed once in their last 11 away matches.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • This is a dead rubber from the home side's perspective, borne out by the recent winless run. AB have everything to play for and must win in order to relegate Fredericia if Fred lose or draw their matches.
  • AGF have the best of it in head to heads so this will be a tough match for AB. Both teams could score today if AB fight for it.
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15:00 UK Viborg v Lyngby - 1.91 home

Standout Stats

  • 1st v 3rd in an effective dead rubber match in the Danish First Division. Viborg are Champions regardless. If Lyngby lose and Vendsyssel win, then they will trade places (3rd and 4th currently) although there seems to be no significant benefit in retaining 3rd place. It is the top 2 who get promoted it seems.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Home celebrations for the Champions but little else to enthuse about in a dead rubber.
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15:00 UK Fredericia v Koge - 1.83 home

Standout Stats

  • This is NOT a dead rubber as you'll know if you read the AGF v AB research.
  • Koge sit happily in mid table. Fredericia need AB to lose and them to lose in order to retain 3rd bottom and safety. If AB draw and Fredericia lose, Fred will still retain 3rd bottom place on goal difference.
  • If, however, AB win (and they have won their last 2 matches), Fredericia will need to win in order to retain 3rd bottom and safety.
  • 3 consecutive 0-0's in head to heads. Remember, 0-0 will not suit Fred at all if AB are winning
  • Only 1 loss in 8 for Fred is encouraging. They are unbeaten in 4 at home, 3 draws and a 1-0 win.
  • Only 1 win in 5 away for Koge.
  • They have won their last 2 matches though at home.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Is this a case of following the needs-must team rather than the mid-table team? If so, favour Fredericia today and lay Koge if Koge take the lead.
  • Surely not a 4th consecutive 0-0 in head to heads? Lay any late 0-0.
  • Remember Fredericia need only a draw if AB are drawing or losing, and I suspect they will go for the win today in order to ensure safety.
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15:00 UK Vejle v Bronshoj - 1.4 home

Standout Stats

  • Vejle has won the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 5th v 12th in the danish 1st division after 32 matches.
  • This is the last match of the season. Bronshoj are down and if Vejle win, they retain 5th place, for what it's worth?

Vejle

  • Only 2 losses in 15 suggests, if motivated, they will cope with bottom side today in their last home match.
  • 3-2-2 scored in the last 3 matches.
  • No 0-0 at home.

Bronshoj

  • No win in 19 and in 9 away.
  • 3 draws in their last 4 away matches.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Another dead rubber in Denmark. A feeling that Vejle, if motivated, will have too much for Bronshoj who are relegated regardless. If you think Vejle will score 2 goals again , then lay Vejle if they score first.
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16:00 UK TPS Turku v VIFK - 1.44 home

Standout Stats

  • No head to heads.
  • This is 5th v 9th in the Finnish Ykkonen. The league is only 6 matches old so may not present any solid betting angles presently.

TPS Turku

  • 4 clean sheets in their last 5 matches.
  • 0-0-5 scored in the 3 home matches this season.

VIFK

  • Conceded in their last 6 matches and last 3 away.
  • Only 1 win this season came last match. 4 losses prior to that.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Limited form but after 6 matches we have a side keeping clean sheets v a side recording their first win of the season after 4 consecutive losses.
  • I expect TPS to score today at some stage, to consolidate the 5 they scored last home match. Lay VIFK if they score first. Not knowing anything about this league, my guess would be that VIFK are a newly promoted side to the Ykkonen league.
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19:45 UK Juventus v Barcelona - 1.61 away

Standout Stats

  • The Champions League Final and the market is emphatic here.
  • Juventus are unbeaten in 9 consecutive Champions League (CL) matches.  Real Madrid lately could only score via a penalty. Is this a warning to Barcelona regarding the Old Lady's defensive prowess?
  • Olympiakos were the only team this campaign to score 2 goals v Juventus.
  • Barcelona lost 3-2 to Bayern Munich recently but that was an engineered loss. 3-0 Barcelona in the first leg.
  • Barcelona have scored 2/3 goals v mighty teams such as Paris St Germain and Bayern Munich.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Barcelona historically have scored 2 goals at least when reaching the Champions League Final, and franked this when beating Paris St Germain and Bayern Munich.
  • Juventus have been rock solid defensively. I cannot see Juventus outscoring Barcelona. As ever though, for a one-off match, it is so difficult to get an angle into these matches. I would, however, lay Juventus if they score first.
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23:00 UK Uruguay v Guatemala - 1.11 home

Standout Stats

  • Please remember that Suarez will be missing from this match because of the above match.
  • No recent head to heads.
  • Only 1 loss in 21 friendlies for Uruguay was against Spain.
  • 7 wins in their last 8 friendlies.
  • 9 wins and 3 draws in their last 12 home friendlies. A 3-3 recently at home v Chile.
  • Since August 2012 in friendlies, Guatemala have only beaten Nicaragua and Cuba. They failed to score in the 8 matches surrounding these 2 consecutive wins.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Suarez is a big miss. This is a warm-up for the Copa America which is due later this month I think. The odds are right here and we all know what to expect. Goals before halftime and a 3/4 goal haul for Uruguay. They do have Edsion Cavani in Suarez absence but do check team news as PSG might be on pre-season tours.
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00:00 UK Argentina v Bolivia - 1.22 home

Standout Stats

  • Please remember the key absentees tonight for Argentina. Messi is otherwise engaged.I am not sure if there are other players from Juventus who are Argentinian.
  • If this match was in Bolivia the odds would be different because of the Bolivian's sea level.
  • 3 consecutive 1-1's in head to heads but those are from 2011 and 2013.
  • The Copa America begins next week. Is Aguero on pre-season with Man City? Messi we know is absent. I think the main City tour of the USA, along with Barca, will be at the end of July. So we should see a full squad for the Copa America.
  • Since June 2011, in friendlies, Argentina have only 4 defeats, 3 of them v Brazil and the other v Portugal.
  • They have scored at least 2 goals in 7 of their last 9 friendlies.
  • Only 1 home loss in friendlies was against Portugal, a 0-1 90th minute winner!
  • Only 1 win in 8 friendlies for Bolivia was a 3-2 home win v Venezuela.
  • 2-2 and 3-2 in their last 2 friendlies.
  • Only 1 away friendly win since 1994 seems damning!
  • They have conceded 2 goals in each of their last 5 away matches.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • On current away form in friendlies, Bolivia must be opposed, particularly if they score first. They tend to concede 2 goals. That pattern cannot continue forever. What chance another 1-1 as per head to heads? In Messi's absence it might have a chance.
  • This is a warm up for the Copa America. Argentina's home friendly form is excellent and I am favouring them today.
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FRENCH OPEN TENNIS

I was delighted to see Andy Murray win the 3rd set. I left you yesterday with the stat that Novak has won the first set in the last 7 head to heads. He did so again. I also suggested Laying Novak 2-0 sets up. The match is still in the balance but the market heavily favours Novak today at odds of 1.13/1.14. 2pm - Serena Williams v Lucie Safarova  - 1.39 Serena. You should know the entry point to trade here off by heart now? If Serena Williams loses the first set, either lay her opponent/back Serena or lay Safarova 2-0 set betting at hopefully short odds. 1st v 13th in the world and rather like Ana Ivanovic (who had a 5-0 head to head v one opponent), Serena is 8-0 in head to heads. A huge mental hurdle for Safarova to overcome.