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I do hope you visited the ATM that is Werder Bremen (particularly away from home). 2 goals post 30 mins brought in the halftime goals. Of course Werder scored and conceded!
Caution this weekend: The Champions League rears its ugly head next week. On Tuesday, Dortmund, Monaco, Juventus and Barcelona compete. On Wednesday Atl Madrid, Leicester, Bayern Munich and Real Madrid compete. On Thursday we have the lesser competition, the Europa League, featuring Anderlecht, Man Utd, Celta Vigo, Genk, Ajax, Schalke, Lyon and Besiktas. Regarding the Champions League, teams will often sacrifice the preceding league game in order to be fully with the Tuesday/Wednesday game. Watch out for these competitors away from home especially.
Live chat at 14:30 at delayreacttrade.com. See you there.

12:30 - Tottenham v Watford - 1.3 Tottenham

  • 1-4 Tottenham the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 2nd v 10th in the English Premiership. 3 points should see Watford safe. Must win for spurs in the hope Chelsea slip up.

Tottenham 100% stats

  • Unbeaten at home.
  • Scored in all home matches.

Tottenham other stats

  • 5 consecutive wins.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • 2+ goals scored in those 5 matches.
  • 10 consecutive home wins.

Watford 100% stats

  • All defeats v top 4.

Watford other stats

  • 2 consecutive wins came at home.
  • Conceded last 9 away.
  • Only 1 away win v top 14.
  • 16 goals conceded away either side of halftime.

Conclusions

  • Tottenham should eye the win, even with Kane missing. Both teams could score (a habit for Watford v top 4) with Spurs winning.
  • Expect 2+ goals from Tottenham. They were superb v Swansea 1-0 87th minute 1-3 win 90th+ minute!

14:00 - Empoli v Pescara - 1.96 Empoli

  • 0-4 Empoli in the last head to head.
  • This is 17th v 20th in Italian Seria A.
  • Pescara are down. Empoli with a win could get a nice 8 point gap to relegation with a win.

Empoli 100% stats

  • Wins at home v teams below them in the league  2-1 and 1-0 only though.

Empoli other stats

  • 8 defeats and a 1-1 last 9 matches.
  • This is a real step down from the teams they have been hosting at home of late.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home.

Pescara 100% stats

  • Relegated.
  • Not led at halftime away.
  • No away 0-0.
  • Not scored in both halves away.
  • Never scored first away.

Pescara other stats

  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • No 0-0 at halftime last 11 matches.
  • 6 consecutive away defeats and no win in 14 away.
  • Vastly improved away form v 15th and lower with a win, a 1-1, 2-1 loss and 1-1.
  • 10 of 11 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Doubtless we will see a trade as Empoli are likely to score first and even lead at halftime.
  • Pescara are conceding 2 goals with regularity but it must be said they are (relatively speaking) vastly improved v 15th and lower.
  • 1-1, 2-1 are obvious starts here as Empoli v teams below them have won, but won 1-0 or 2-1.

14:30 - FC Koln v Mgladbach - 2.58 FC Koln

  • 1-2 Koln in the last head to head.
  • This is 5th v 9th in the German Bundesliga.

FC Koln 100% stats

  • Unbeaten at home outside of first.
  • No home match with exactly 4 goals.

FC Koln other stats

  • Failed to score in only 6 matches.
  • Scored in all bar 2 at home.

Mgladbach 100% stats

  • Not beaten a team above them in the league away.
  • Not scored in both halves away.

Mgladbach other stats

  • Only 3 away wins.

Conclusions

  • The market expects a tight match and there is always a reason behind the market's choice. On form, Koln are solid enough at home to expect them not to lose against an Mgladbach team without a win v top 9 away.

14:30 - Hamburg v Hoffenheim - 2.26 Hoff

  • 2-2 the last time these 2 met. More again please!
  • This is 14th v 3rd in the German Bundesliga. Hoff could threaten 2nd spot. Hamburg could be threatened with relegation. Must win for both sides.

Hamburg 100% stats

  • No home 0-0.
  • All defeats at home to top 4.
  • All home wins were by a single goal.

Hamburg other stats

  • Only Bayern and Dortmund have beaten Hamburg lately.
  • 6 wins in 7 home matches yet relegation threatened?

Hoffenheim 100% stats

  • Unbeaten home and away v 14th and lower.
  • Not lost to nil.

Hoffenheim other stats

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • Loss, Loss, Draw, Draw, Win last 5 aways scoring and conceding in each.
  • Scored 2 goals at least in 7 of 8 matches v teams 14th and lower.

Conclusions

  • What gives with Hamburg. Brilliant at home yet relegation knocks on the door. Only Bayern and Dortmund have beaten them lately. If Hoff are in a true position in 3rd spot, Hamburg should be vulnerable again today.
  • Hoff could score 2 goals today. I never discount a score draw with the Hoff. Both teams to score is a strong trend so work with that if 0-0 for a while. Is this another Hoff 2-1/1-2 trade? It has paid off the last 2 times we have tried it (if getting out at 1-1 - Hoff have tended to go to 1-3 afterwards!).
  • Hoffenheim have never lost to nil this season so stick that in your plan for this match.

15:00 - West Ham v Swansea - 2.14 West Ham

  • 1-4 Swansea and 1-4 West Ham in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 15th v 18th in the Premiership.

West Ham 100% stats

  • No 0-0.

West Ham other stats

  • 5 defeats and 2 draws last 7 matches.
  • Conceded 2 goals at least in 6 of last 7, scoring in all bar 1.
  • Conceded last 10 matches.
  • Only 2 home wins.
  • All wins bar 1 came v 13th and lower.
  • 13 of 17 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Swansea 100% stats

  • No draw away v 10th and lower.
  • No away 0-0.

Swansea other stats

  • Only 4 draws.
  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • Conceded last 14 away.
  • 4 consecutive away defeats.
  • Only 1 away draw.
  • Wins away v 14th and 16th and play 15th.
  • 22 of 33 away goals conceded came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • West Ham at home v bottom 1/3rd suddenly shut up shop. Will we see 1-1 or 1-0's as they have done all season. Is this a concerted plan of attack v fellow relegation threatened sides? If we can take points from rivals, we may survive. It is in contrast to conceding 2+ goals lately. So not really a readable game for me.
  • Value might be in backing 0-0 pre match and hope that West Ham employ that ultra defensive home tactic v strugglers.

15:00 - Stoke v Liverpool - 1.89 Liverpool

  • 2 consecutive 4-1 Liverpool wins in head to heads.
  • This is 12th v 3rd in the Premiership. 8 points from relegation, Stoke have a cushion. Liverpool are doing their best to lose 3rd spot with a draw v Bournemouth.

Stoke 100% stats

  • Not beaten a top 9 team home or away.
  • Not scored 2 goals at home v top 9.

Stoke other stats

  • 3 consecutive defeats.
  • Only 1 loss in 9 at home came v Chelsea.
  • Only 2 wins in 10 matches.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • All defeats v top 3.

Liverpool 100% stats

  • Losses came v 11th and lower so very topsy turvy.

Liverpool other stats

  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 6 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • Lost away to 11th, 13th and 14th and play 12th today. Just coincidence?
  • Not won in 5 matches when Mane is absent from the team.

Conclusions

  • Stoke have not beaten a top 9 team, lost to top 3 and scored 1 goal max v top 9. They should not be landing a blow today. But Liverpool, maybe coincidentally, have lost away to 11th, 13th and 14th. Is this a sign that Liverpool are vulnerable?
  • Liverpool may certainly score and concede today so note that. They have a dire record too when Mane does not play. Again, coincidence or worth laying Liverpool today?

15:00 - Middlesbrough v Burnley - 2.5 Boro

  • 1-0 Burnley in the last head to head.
  • This is 19th v 14th in the English Premiership.

Middlesbrough other stats

  • No win in 13 and in 5 at home.
  • 3 wins at home v 13th, 17th and 18th.

Burnley 100% stats

  • No away win.
  • Not led at halftime away.

Burnley other stats

  • Only 1 win in 8 came at home.
  • 9 losses and 2 draws in 11 away matches.

Conclusions

  • 2 teams with dire form, Boro overall and Burnley away from home.
  • Another typical relegation six pointer where neither side can be trusted.

15:00 - Man City v Hull - 1.22 Man City

  • 0-3 Man City earlier this season.
  • This is 4th v 17th in the Premiership.
  • Hull are only 2 points from relegation. A win could take City 3rd dependent on Liverpool's result.

Man City 100% stats

  • Only loss v 1st.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 12th and lower.

Man City other stats

  • 3 draws and a loss last 4 matches.
  • 3 draws last 4 home matches.
  • Failed to score only 4 matches.
  • No defeat 7 at home.
  • Scored and conceded all 5 matches at home v 14th and lower.
  • 12 of 14 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Hull City 100% stats

  • Not beaten any side above them in the league away from home.
  • 2 goals at least conceded away v top 5 teams.
  • Not scored in both halves away.

Hull other stats

  • 3 wins in 4 matches came at home.
  • 2-3-4 conceded last 3 aways.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • No win in 14 away.
  • Led only once at halftime away.
  • 35 goals conceded and 7 scored away. That's the rub!

Conclusions

  • One team is banging in the winners, the other has not won in 4. Yes it is Hull with 3 wins in 4 but note they have not won away in 14 and conceded 2 goals at least away v the top 5.
  • That is the expectation but need for points can do strange things.
  • Man City tend to concede v 14th and lower and indeed concede 2nd half so watch for that pattern. Lay the 2-0 if 2-0 2nd half for instance in expectation of a Hull goal. A late 1-0 would be vulnerable for sure.

15:00 - West Brom v Southampton - 2.64 Southampton

  • 1-2 West Brom in the last head to head.
  • This is 8th v 9th in the English Premiership. With Premiership survival assured, is there anything to play for?

West Brom other stats

  • Failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches but then beat Arsenal in between!
  • 5 wins in 6 home matches.
  • Only 6 clean sheets - most un-Pulis like.
  • No draw in 11 at home.
  • All home defeats bar 1 came v top 7 teams.

Southampton 100% stats

  • Not beaten a side above them in the league away from home.

Southampton other stats

  • Only loss in 5 was v Spurs.
  • No draw in 7 away.

Conclusions

  • Southampton have had plenty of goals in them away of late but the opposition has to be taken into account.
  • They meet a West Brom in the part of the league in which the Saints have yet to win away.
  • West Brom have been on a winning run at home, only broken by Crystal Palace and strictly on form, I would expect the Baggies not to lose today.
  • Lay any late draw as it seems to be avoided by both teams lately.

15:15 - Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid - 1.83 Real Madrid

  • A run of 3 tight matches there Atl did not lose ended with an emphatic 0-3 Real win last head to head.
  • This is one of those high profile matches I will not research. Sit back, enjoy and play via the in-play stats (if you play at all!).

17:00 - Atalanta v Sassuolo - 1.52 Atalanta

  • 0-3 Atalanta in the last head to head.
  • This is 5th v 15th in the Italian Seria A.

Atalanta 100% stats

  • No draw at home v 9th and lower.

Atalanta other stats

  • Only 1 loss in 10 matches was a spanking by Inter Milan. That looks an anomoly.
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • 5 clean sheets in 6 matches.
  • No defeat in 6 at home.
  • 7 wins and 2 defeats at home v 9th and lower.
  • 16 of 23 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Sassuolo 100% stats

  • Not beaten a top 11 team home or away.
  • Scored and conceded away v all teams above them in the league.

Sassuolo other stats

  • All wins v 12th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Atalanta should be winning today but Sassuolo tend to score and concede consistently without winning so if Sassuolo score first it is not unexpected. Sassuolo are opposable if this happens.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

17:30 - Bournemouth v Chelsea - 1.61 Chelsea

  • Oh boy it's Bournemouth, the scourge of Liverpool.
  • 3-0 Chelsea the last time these 2 teams met.
  • This is 13th v 1st in the Premiership. 7 points from relegation is not done yet for Bournemouth.

Bournemouth 100% stats

  • Failed to score in the 2 matches v top 2 this season.

Bournemouth other stats

  • 3 draws and 2 wins in 5 matches.

Chelsea 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • Unbeaten away v 9th and lower.

Chelsea other stats

  • Failed to score only 2 matches.
  • 4 consecutive 2-1 scorelines, 3 were wins.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 away and last 8 overall.
  • 9 wins 2 draws v 9th and lower away.

Conclusions

  • We all know the threat Bournemouth pose but the form fact is that they have failed to score v the big 2 yet. They will test Chelsea and that stat might end as Chelsea have scored and conceded in their last 8 matches.
  • If Bournemouth score first, lay them - Chelsea do tend to score and concede as I say.
  • Lay any late 0-0. Chelsea, like West Ham, simply do not do 0-0.

17:30 - Sevilla v Deportivo - 1.52 Sevilla

  • 1-1, 1-1, 2-3 Sevilla in the last 3 head to heads.
  • This is 4th v 16th in Spanish La Liga.

Sevilla 100% stats

  • Unbeaten at home outside of the top 2.
  • Not conceded 2 goals at home v 11th and lower.
  • Not lost to nil at home.

Sevilla other stats

  • No win in 5 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • 0-0-0-1-0 goals conceded in their last 5 home matches.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home.

Deportivo 100% stats

  • Not beaten a top 17 side away.

Deportivo other stats

  • Failed to score last 3 matches.
  • Failed to score 2 goals in each of last 6 away.
  • Only 6 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 away win.
  • 10 goals conceded away last 15 mins.

Conclusions

  • Sevilla are ruining their season last 5 matches. They are still though solid defensively at home. If Depor score first, lay them as they should not get a 2nd.

17:30 - Bayern Munich v Dortmund - 1.63 Bayern

  • 0-0, 0-0, 0-2 Bayern, 1-0 Dortmund in the last 4 head to heads.
  • Like the Madrid derby, this is another high profile match which has a life of its own i.e. it may not follow the form. No research therefore for me.
  • React in-play.

19:45 - Malaga v Barcelona - 1.37 Barcelona

  • 0-0 the last time these 2 teams met.
  • This is 15th v 2nd in the Spanish Primera Liga.

Malaga 100% stats

  • 8 points from the relegation zone.
  • Not beaten a top 5 side.
  • No home draw v top 18 sides.
  • No 0-0 at home.

Malaga other stats

  • Only 2 wins in 17 matches.
  • 5 losses in 6 home matches.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 9 at home.
  • 93% over 1.5 goals at home.

Barcelona 100% stats

  • Scored in all away matches.

Barcelona other stats

  • Only 3 defeats.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime in the last 10 matches.
  • 6-5-1-4-4-3 goals scored in recent matches.
  • Scored last 18 matches.
  • 10 consecutive over 2.5 goals.
  • Drew 1-1 away v 14th and 2-1 loss v 16th.
  • 30 of 42 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Pre Champions League for Barcelona so caution. If Malaga keep avoiding the home draw v top 18 I can see only one outcome, the away win.
  • Barcelona are likely to score so note that with a 1-0 or 0-0. Barca did have hiccups v teams either side of Malaga in the league. If you are seeking value, lay Barcelona if Barcelona score first.

19:45 - Juventus v Chievo - 1.24 Juventus

  • 1-2 Juventus last time these 2 met.
  • This is 1st v 11th in Italian Seria A Chievo will not enter the relegation battle. There is little really for them to play.

Juventus 100% stats

  • A Champions League affected side.
  • All wins at home.
  • Unbeaten at halftime at home.
  • Scored 2 goals at least at home v teams 7th and lower.
  • Not conceded in both halves at home.

Juventus other stats

  • Only 2 draws both came in recent aways.
  • Failed to score only once.

Chievo 100% stats

  • All defeats v top 3 saw them conceding at least 2 goals.

Chievo other stats

  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 away. Note the 3-1 scoreline came up 4 times in those away matches! Hmmm..
  • 11 goals conceded last 1/2 hour of away matches.

Conclusions

  • Juve are likely to do the double (halftime/fulltime lead) today and the scoreline 3-1 is of interest, particularly if 0-0 for a while.
  • Do prepare for possible under par performance from the Old Lady as they have a Champions League match next week which may distract.