Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

See you at 14:30 for a live chat today. I will do a shortlist at DRT Facebook and highlight the key stats below in bold.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

12:30 - West Ham v Chelsea - 1.53 Chelsea

  • The first thing to remember is that this is a derby. It may open the door slightly for West Ham.
  • Also remember the 'new manager syndrome' for West Ham and post-Champions League for Chelsea.

West Ham (19th)

  • 4 games under Moyes. 3 away defeats and a 1-1 home draw.
  • West Ham have scored in 2 of their last 3 matches.

Chelsea (3rd)

  • 6 wins and a draw last 7 matches.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • Scored in their last 8 matches and last 7 away.
  • No away 0-0.
  • Only loss  away came in another London derby v 18th.
  • Scored first in 5/7 away.

Conclusion

  • We are still yet to see the Moyes-embedded West Ham side. After Man City they meet Chelsea and may have to wait for that win.
  • West Ham scored first v City. They have scored in 2 of their last 3. They have scored in all London derbies, albeit pre Moyes.
  • Logic suggests Chelsea will be too much. They have failed to score only twice so West Ham are likely to need 2 goals for a win.

15:00 - Burnley v Watford - 2.58 Burnley

Burnley (7th)

  • Only 4 defeats.
  • 3 of those defeats were 1-0 and 2 came in their last 3 matches.
  • 0-1-0-1-1-2-0 goals scored at home.
  • Only 3 over 2.5 goals matches.
  • 7 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Not played 6th-14th at home.
  • All wins bar 1 v 10th and lower.

Watford (8th)

  • Only 2 wins in 7 matches.
  • Scored 2 goals in 11 matches this season.
  • Have scored 2+ goals in all away matches.
  • Only 3 0-0's at halftime.
  • Only played one of the top 9 away.
  • 7 of 10 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • An interesting match featuring defence v attack it seems.
  • If Watford score 2 goals yet again then they could get the win. Burnley have scored 2 goals at home only once and are fully reliant on their defence.
  • It does make for a headscratcher today. Burnley, it must be said, have conceded a maximum of 1 goal at home so are really solid defensively.
  • 1-1 could be an interesting correct score from a trading purpose and will fit into the under 2.5 goals record for Burnley.

15:00 - C Palace v Bournemouth - 2.08 Palace

Palace (18th)

  • 2 consecutive 0-0's.
  • Unbeaten in 4 matches.
  • Only 1 loss in 6. Is the Woy way working?
  • Scored in only 4 matches this season.
  • Scored 2-2-2-2 in their last 4 matches at home.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 9 of 12 goals conceded at home came first half.

Bournemouth (14th)

  • Only 1 loss in 5 matches.
  • 2 wins and a 0-0 in the last 3 away matches.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime away.

Conclusions

  • If Palace continue to score 2 goals at home under Woy, then they will not lose this match. Bournemouth have scored 2 goals away from home only once.
  • Palace have scored in only 4 matches this season but they happen to be those last 4 matches at home.
  • If Palace concede, it tends to be overwhelmingly first half. I am not so sure about laying the 0-0 in the halftime score market given Bournemouth's 4 0-0's at halftime away.

15:00 - Huddersfield v Brighton - 2.74 Huddersfield

Huddersfield (16th)

  • The market cannot split these 2 promoted sides.
  • 3 of 4 wins came at home.
  • 2 wins at home in a row until Man City nicked a winner last home match.
  • 4 consecutive defeats now.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 2 of 3 home wins were 1-0 v 15th and 17th.
  • Scored first in 5/7 at home.

Brighton (12th)

  • 2 defeats in their last 3 matches.
  • 2 away wins ended with a 1-0 loss away to Man Utd.
  • The last 3 teams to beat Brighton were Arsenal, Man Utd and Liverpool.
  • Only wins away came v the bottom 2 in the league.
  • 5 of 7 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • The market cannot split these 2 sides. If Huddersfield are to win it is more likely to come at home.
  • Brighton have only lost, it must be said, against top sides recently.
  • No strong angles for me.

15:00 - Tottenham v Stoke - 1.3 Tottenham

  • ouch! 3 consecutive 4-0 Spurs wins in head to heads.

Tottenham (6th)

  • Only 1 win in 6 matches now. Scored and conceded last 3 matches without winning.
  • Current form over 6 matches is actually worse than Stoke.
  • 1-1-0-1-4-1-1 scored at home. Not good enough to ensure consistent wins. Yes 2 matches saw 1-0 wins but some other scorelines saw Tottenham drop points after just scoring the 1 goal.
  • They have failed to score only 3 times, twice away so do expect a goal at some point.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Only loss came at home v 3rd in the league.
  • 6 of 9 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Stoke (13th)

  • Only 4 wins, 3 came at home.
  • 2-2-2-3-1 goals conceded recently. Only 2 clean sheets.
  • No 0-0.
  • Only 1 away win was a 0-1 v Watford.

Conclusions

  • Scoring just a single goal in each of 5 home matches is not the foundation for success and certainly not the form of a 1.3 shot!
  • That said, Stoke have just one away win, and have conceded 2+ goals in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • I would not be surprised were Spurs to misfire again. 4 0-0's at halftime suggest we may need to wait to the 2nd half.
  • Stoke historically have a woeful away record v top 6. We do logically expect struggles but do not be surprised if Spurs find it hard to score, as they have a habit of doing at Wem-ber-ley.

15:00 - Swansea v West Brom - 2.72 Swansea

  • Like the Huddersfield match above, here is another potentially tough-to-call match. The market tells us so.

Swansea (20th)

  • Only 2 wins.
  • 6 losses in 7 matches.
  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • Only led once at halftime at home.
  • Wins v 16th and 18th.
  • Conceded 5 goals in the last 15 mins of home matches.
  • Opponents have scored first in 5/7 home matches.

West Brom (17th)

  • 3 consecutive draws.
  • Only 2 wins came in the first 2 matches of the season.
  • Only 2 clean sheets in 13 matches.
  • yYet to score a 2nd goal in an away match.
  • Conceded in their last 6 away matches.
  • Not played the bottom 3 away. 0-0's at home v 18th and 19th.

Conclusions

  • 2 teams in very poor form. Both sides have 2 wins only.
  • 0-0 may be in play given what West Brom have done at home v bottom 3 sides.

17:30 - Newcastle v Leicester - 2.72 Newcastle

Newcastle (15th)

  • 5 losses in 6 matches.
  • Only 1 win in 10 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • 1-1-0-0 scored last 4 at home.
  • No 0-0.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Not beaten a top 12 teams.
  • No 0-0.

Leicester

  • Only 1 loss in 9 matches was v Manchester City.
  • 2 consecutive wins.
  • Scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 away matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Unbeaten at halftime away.
  • All defeats have come v the top 6.
  • Pretty poor away form with 2 defeats, 4 draws and a single win.

Conclusions

  • Leicester's away form is not the best. Only 1 win but interestingly Leicester have only lost v top 6 teams. Newcastle are far from that point.
  • Strictly on form I would side with Leicester but remind you of that single win only.

SCOTTISH PREMIER LEAGUE

15:00 - Rangers v Ross Co - 1.4 Rangers

  • 1-1 and 1-3 Rangers in the last 2 head to heads.

Rangers (3rd)

  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • 7 of 9 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
  • Losses at home v 1st, 4th and 8th.
  • Easy wins v 10th and 12th at home.

Ross Co (11th)

  • Only 4 wins.
  • Failed to score in their last 3 matches.
  • 2 0-0's in 3 away matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • All defeats home and away v top 4.

Conclusions

  • Rangers do lose at home but v the bottom 3 (who they play today) they have scored 7 goals and conceded just 1 at home.
  • Add to that the fact that Ross County have lost all matches v top 4 and this should be a home win today.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 - Dortmund v Werder Bremen - 1.44 Dortmund

  • Both teams have scored in the last 7 matches.
  • 5 consecutive Dortmund wins.

Dortmund (6th)

  • No win in 7 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 9 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 1 match.
  • 3-3-4 goals conceded in their last 3 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
  • No draw at halftime at home.
  • Scored first in 5/6 but the match may be far from over if they do score first.

Werder Bremen

  • 2 consecutive home wins now but still woeful away from home.
  • 5 consecutive matches without a 0-0 at halftime - that is normally what we expect of Werder Bremen.
  • Only 4 over 2.5 goals matches this season.
  • Not led at halftime away.
  • All defeats v top 8 teams.
  • No goal scored or conceded in the first 15 minutes of away matches.
  • Opponents scored first in 5/7 away.

Conclusions

  • Werder are showing something like their old selves with 2 consecutive home wins but they are still poor away. Last season both teams scored regularly in Werder away matches.
  • Dortmund are in such poor form that they could allow Werder a goal or two today.
  • I would lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

14:30 - Eintracht Frankfurt v Bayern Munich - 1.49 Bayern

  • 0-0 and 2-2 in the last 2 visits for Bayern to Frankfurt.

Eintracht Frankfurt (8th)

  • Only 4 defeats.
  • Scored and conceded in 8 of their last 9 matches.
  • Only 1 loss in 8 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets and failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 9 matches.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • All defeats at home v the top 11 teams they have played. Note they are yet to meet the top 5 at home.

Bayern Munich (1st)

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • Failed to score in only one match.
  • Lost their last away match.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime.
  • No away 0-0.
  • Defeats away v 4th and 5th were Champions League affected.
  • Scored 2+ goals home and away in 8 of 9 matches v 6th and lower.
  • Scored first in 5/7 away.

Conclusions

  • No upcoming Champions League matches for Bayern should see them perform better. Their 2 defeats away were affected by the competition.
  • Note Frankfurt hve lost all matches v the top 11 but they are yet to meet top 5 at home.
  • I do not expect Bayern to lose a 2nd consecutive away match.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. Bayern at home tend to 2-0 at halftime and away should conjure up a goal before halftime.

14:30 - Hamburg v Wolfsburg - 2.62 Hamburg

  • The 2 head to heads last season were won by both teams.

Hamburg (15th)

  • Only 4 wins.
  • 2 consecutive home wins.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • 3 1-0's at home and 3 0-0's at home at halftime.
  • Only 2 draws all season were 0-0.
  • 6 of 7 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Wolfsburg (11th)

  • Scored and conceded in 9 of their last 10 matches.
  • Only 3 wins with 2 consecutive home wins.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 4 aways.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Only 3 wins but only 3 defeats.
  • Only 3 0-0's at halftime.
  • Scored in their last 10 matches.

Conclusions

  • The market tells us these 2 cannot be split.
  • We have a Wolfsburg team tending to score and concede versus a Hamburg side who, at home, tend to see just the one team scoring.
  • Very recently these 2 teams have put together short winning sequences with 3 goals in them so I would lay any late 0-0.

14:30 - RB Leipzig v Mainz - 1.41 RB Leipzig

  • 3-1 and 2-3 Leipzig last 2 head to heads.

RB Leipzig (2nd)

  • Only 4 defeats.
  • Did lose those away.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score only in those defeats.
  • 5 wins and a 2-2 draw at home.
  • Scored 2+ goals in all home matches.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime.
  • All wins at home v 8th and lower.
  • Scored first in 4/6 at home and led at halftime at home in 4/6.

Mainz (14th)

  • Only 4 wins.
  • 2 consecutive losses.
  • Scored and conceded in 6/8 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • No away win.
  • 4-0 and 2-0 away v top 3.
  • 8 of 11 goals conceded away came 2nd half.
  • Opponents have scored first in 5/6 away.

Conclusions

  • Mainz have lost without scoring v top 3 this season away. Is there any reason to conclude otherwise?
  • Only 4 wins for Mainz this season came at home. Leipzig fail to score in only defeats and with 2+ goals scored in each home match, this match is theirs to lose.

17:30 - Mgladbach v Schalke - 2.26 Mgladbach

  • 1-1 and 2-2 last 2 head to heads came in the Europa League.

Mgladbach (4th)

  • Only 4 defeats.
  • Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 9 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 at home.
  • No 0-0.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Losses at home v 7th and 8th.
  • Far stronger 2nd half goals pattern at home.
  • Scored first in 5/7 at home.

Schalke (3rd)

  • Unbeaten in 8 matches.
  • 2 consecutive score draws.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • Not led at halftime away.
  • Only 1 win home and away v top 11.
  • All wins bar 1 v 12th and lower.
  • 6 of 8 goals conceded away 1st half.
  • 8 of 9 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Top 4 teams could cancel each other out today. I note that Schalke's position may be because they are meeting, and beating teams 12th and lower in the league and are yet to show they can consistently produce v top 10 teams.
  • Mgladbach themselves lost at home v 8th and 8th so may be vulnerable.
  • I would take on a 0-0 if 0-0 halftime. Strong 2nd half goals patterns for these 2.

SPANISH LA LIGA

12:00 - Getafe v Eibar - 2.1 Getafe

  • 1-1, 3-1 Eibar and 1-1 in the last 3 head to heads.

Getafe (8th)

  • Only 1 loss in 6 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • 4 wins in 5 at home.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • No draw at home.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • All 3 home losses came v top 5 teams.
  • 10 of 13 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Eibar (13th)

  • 3 consecutive wins.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 6 away matches.
  • No away draw.
  • All defeats v the top 9 conceding 3 goals at least.
  • 19 goals conceded away.
  • Opponents scored first in 5/7 away.

Conclusions

  • It seems clear enough. If Getafe are a true top 9 team, then simply they'll score 3+ goals v Eibar. That is what the form says.
  • Getafe are on a good run of form overall and at home and with Eibar conceding 19 goals away, this is a good opportunity for Getafe to get a result.
  • But with only 3 clean sheets, Getafe will need their scoring boots in order to get the win. I would favour Getafe today.

15:15 - Real Madrid v Sevilla - 1.34 Real Madrid

  • 3-3, 2-1 Sevilla and 4-1 Real Madrid in the last 3 head to heads.

Real Madrid (4th)

  • 2 0-0's in his last 3 came away from home.
  • 4 consecutive home wins scoring 2-3-3-3 goals.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • 5 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • Not lost at halftime this season.
  • Not met 3rd-10th at home but 2-2 at home v 2nd and 0-1 loss v 11th.
  • Scored first in 5/7 at home.

Sevilla

  • 4 wins in 5 matches.
  • Scored 2 goals in those 4 matches.
  • No away draw saw 4 losses and a win last 5 away matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime in 7 matches now.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in 3 consecutive away matches.
  • 4 1-0 losses and 3 0-0's at halftime away.
  • All defeats away v top 4.
  • All 6 away goals scored 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Real Madrid have not really played top teams at home. On the 2 occasions that they did, they did not win.
  • Sevilla away are conceding 2+ goals regularly and Real are scoring 3+ in their last 3 home matches. Were that form to continue, then obviously Real Madrid would outscore Sevilla.

19:45 - Valencia v Celta Vigo - 1.72 Valencia

  • 4 Celta head to head wins ended with a Valencia win last match.

Valencia (2nd)

  • Only loss came last match.
  • Unbeaten at home.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • 4 wins and a draw v Barcelona last 5 home matches.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime and only 1 0-0 at fulltime.
  • Unbeaten at halftime.
  • All wins at home bar 2 draws v fellow top 3.

Celta Vigo

  • Failed to score in only 1 match.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 8 matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of the last 4 away matches.
  • No 0-0 away.
  • 4 losses away were 2-1.
  • Only 1 win v top 12 teams.

Conclusions

  • Both sides tend to score first and I would be keener laying Celta if Celta scored first.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Valencia will have a chance here with Celta conceding 2 goals regularly away.
  • Will Valencia really start consecutive defeats after such an excellent season? I am not so sure.

ITALIAN SERIA A

17:00 - Cagliari v Sampdoria - 2.6 Cagliari

  • 1-1 last head to head.

Cagliari (13th)

  • Only 5 wins.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of 6 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded in 4 at home.
  • No draw in 7 at home.
  • Not beaten a top 12 side.

Sampdoria (6th)

  • 2 consecutive defeats.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • 3 defeats in 4 away.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • 3-1-3-2-4 conceded away v top 14.

Conclusions

  • A muddling match given Sampdoria tend to conceded heavily away v top 14 sides and Cagliari have not yet beaten a top 12 side.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

19:45 - Juventus v Inter - 1.72 Juventus

  • 2-1 Inter and 1-0 Juventus in the last 2 matches.

Juventus (3rd)

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • Scored in all matches.
  • 7 wins and a loss at home.
  • 5 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches at home.
  • Lost at home to 5th and away to 6th. Vulnerable again?
  • Scored first in 7/8 at home and led at halftime in 5/8 at home.

Inter Milan (1st)

  • Unbeaten.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • 5 wins in 7 matches away.
  • 1-0 losses in 2 away matches but unbeaten.
  • 0-0 away v 2nd.
  • 9 of 13 goals scored away came 2nd half.
  • 6 goals scored last 15 minutes of away matches.

Conclusions

  • Tough to predict a top 3 clash. They tend to be naturally tight. I feel Juventus at odds on is a little optimistic against this new Inter Milan side.
  • Juventus have scored in every match. Will that continue?
  • Note that Inter have been losing in 2 away matches at halftime yet remain unbeaten. Something to factor in here.

ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

15:00 - Wolves v Sunderland - 1.37 Wolves

Wolves (1st)

  • Only 3 losses.
  • 9 wins in 10 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • 6 consecutive home wins.
  • No 0-0 at halftime in 8 matches.
  • Scored 2+ goals in each of their last 7 home matches.
  • Unbeaten at halftime at home.
  • Only home loss v 2nd.
  • 9 of 10 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
  • Scored first in 9/10 at home.

Sunderland (23rd)

  • Only 2 wins includes last away match.
  • Only 1 clean sheet came in that away match.
  • Scored in all bar 1 of the last 13 matches.
  • No 0-0 away.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • 4/4 2-1 losses home and away v the top 5.

Conclusions

  • In 2-1 defeats v top 5, Sunderland are competitive. Wolves have scored 2+ goals in each of their last 7 home matches so could score 2 again. There is no sign that Sunderland will outscore Wolves.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

15:00 - Aston Villa v Millwall - 1.82 Aston Villa

  • No recent head to heads.

Aston Villa (5th)

  • Only 4 defeats.
  • Only 2 losses in 17 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • 5 wins in 6 matches at home.
  • 5 1-0 scorelines at halftime at home.
  • 7 wins and 2 draws home and away v 15th and lower.
  • Scored first in 7/10 at home.
  • Led at halftime in 6/10 at home.

Millwall (17th)

  • Only 2 wins in 10 matches.
  • No win in 10 away matches.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime away.
  • 1-0, 0-0. 0-0 v top 3 away.
  • Yet to win away.

Conclusions

  • Millwall look to keep things tight when playing the top teams in this league, as seen by the 1-0, 0-0, 0-0 v top 3. Will that be a tactic today?
  • Millwall are yet to win away and are playing a Villa with 7 wins and 2 draws v 15th and lower, and only 2 losses in 17 matches.
  • On form, Aston Villa should not be losing this. 0-0 may be in play if Millwall continue their ultra defensive set up v top 5 teams.
  • Watch out for a 1-0 Villa lead at halftime. It has occured in 50% of home matches.

15:00 - Fulham v Birmingham - 1.69 Fulham

  • 1-1, 0-1 Birmingham and 1-0 Birmingham last 3 head to heads.

Fulham (15th)

  • 2 wins in their last 3 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime in 11 matches.
  • Only 1 loss in 8 at home.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • 6 score draws at home so despite only 2 home defeats, we see only 2 wins.
  • 1-1, 1-0, 2-1 and 1-1 at home v teams below them in the league.

Birmingham (22nd)

  • Only 4 wins came at home.
  • 4 losses in 5 away matches.
  • Conceded in all aways.
  • All away defeats v 7th and lower.
  • Failed to score more than 2 goals in an away match.

Conclusions

  • If Birmingham cannot score a 2nd goal away then they are to be layed if scoring first.
  • Fulham tend to go unbeaten at home v teams below them in the league.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on recent Fulham pattern.

FRENCH LIGUE 1

16:00 - Paris St-G v Lille - 1.13 PSG

  • 4 consecutive PSG wins in head to heads.
  • 3-1 and 2-1 in the last 2 home head to heads.

PSG

  • Only loss came away v Strasbourg last match.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • 100% win record at home.
  • Scored 2+ goals in all home matches.
  • Unbeaten at halftime.
  • 8 goals scored at home at the end of each half.
  • Scored first in 7/8 at home. Led at halftime in 6/8 at home.

Lille

  • 4 wins in 6 matches. Only 5 wins all season. Win v Lyon was a surprise scalp.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • No 0-0 away.
  • 1-2 win v 2nd in the league was a recent away win v Lyon.
  • 5 away defeats saw Lille fail to score.

Conclusions

  • The PSG loss v Strasbourg was care of the Champions League and the resting of the likes of top scorer Cavani.
  • I do not expect Lille to shock PSG away as they shocked Lyon.
  • Expect 2+ goals for PSG. Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

19:00 - Metz v Rennes - 2.3 Rennes

  • 1-0 Rennes and 1-1 in the last 2 head to heads.

Metz (20 runners)

  • Only 1 win. All defeats bar that draw and a win.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • All losses at home.
  • Failed to score in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Conceded 2 goals or more at home in their last 4 matches.
  • Not led at halftime at home.
  • Not scored a 2nd goal in a match.
  • Opponents tend to score first at home.

Rennes (6th)

  • 6 wins in 7 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • Did beat 19th away v 1-2.

Conclusions

  • Rennes have really hit some great form but are not the best away from home.
  • But they play a Metz side with all losses at home, conceding 2+ goals or more at home in their last 4 matches.
  • With Metz not scoring a 2nd goal this season, lay Metz if Metz score first.

19:00 - Monaco v ESTAC Troyes - 1.32 Monaco

Monaco (3rd)

  • 2 defeats in 3 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • 3 wins in 4 at home.
  • Scored in their last 8 at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Only 1 home loss came v 1st.
  • All wins v 14th and lower.
  • Scored first 6/8 at home and led at halftime 6/8 at home.

Troyes (15th)

  • 5 defeats in 7 matches. 2 wins in those came at home.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Not led at halftime away.
  • All defeats bar 1 v 11th and higher.
  • Strong 2nd half scoring and conceding away pattern.

Conclusions

  • Strictly on form, Monaco beat teams 14th and lower and Troyes lose to 11th and higher.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

19:00 - Guingamp v Dijon - 2.14 Guingamp

  • 3-3 and 4-0 Guingamp in the last 2 head to heads.

Guingamp (15th)

  • Only PSG has beaten them at home.
  • 4 draws in 5 home matches.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 5 matches.
  • 7 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches.
  • All draws at home at halftime, includes 5 0-0's.
  • Scored first in 5/8 at home.

Dijon (10th)

  • 5 wins in 7 matches.
  • Only 1 away win was v a poor Metz.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime in 7 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 5 and last 7 away.
  • No 0-0.
  • Not won away at halftime.
  • Only away win v bottom of the league.

Conclusions

  • on form, Guingamp have a chance here today. Dijon have only beaten bottom of the league away from home and Guingamp have only been beaten by PSG at home.
  • I am not discounting the draw.
  • We may see a 0-0 at halftime but not at fulltime. No 0-0 for Dijon.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

17:30 - Heerenveen v VVV - 1.71 Heerenveen

  • 1-1, 2-2 and 1-0 Heerenveen in the last 3 head to heads.

Heerenveen (8th)

  • Only 1 win in 8 saw all defeats this season come.
  • 4 consecutive home defeats.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • All home defeats v top 7.
  • Not met any side 10th and lower at home but have had 4 wins away v those sides. A suggestion therefore that Heerenveen, with home advantage, could cope?
  • 4 of 5 home goals scored came first half hour.

VVV (13th)

  • Only 1 win in 12 matches.
  • 3 draws in 4 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • No 0-0 away.
  • All defeats bar 1 v top 7.
  • 2 of the 3 wins came v 16th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Heerenveen don't have any real form at home v 10th and lower to work with so I would look at their positive away form v those teams and conclude that, with home advantage, they have a good shot at a positive result today.
  • It helps when VVV tend only to win v teams 16th and lower and have only the 1 win in 12 matches (albeit 3 draws in 4 matches).
  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Really with Heerenveen we should lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

18:45 - AZ Alkmaar v Heracles - 1.41 AZ

  • 7 consecutive AZ wins in head to heads.

AZ (2nd)

  • A great season and not a position they have been used to in recent years.
  • 6 consecutive wins.
  • 3 consecutive clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • 3 consecutive 0-0's at halftime but not at fulltime.
  • No draw at home.
  • Only losses at home came when AZ could not score.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals at home.
  • 9 of 12 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Heracles (9th)

  • 3 wins in 5 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 12 matches this season.
  • Only 1 clean sheet and failed to score in only one match.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime.
  • Not won away.
  • Scored and conceded in all bar one away.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals.
  • Conceded 7 goals in the last 15 mins of away matches.

Conclusions

  • AZ tend to like meeting Heracles and in having an excellent season, they are hot favourites to continue winning.
  • If AZ score, they are highly likely to win.
  • If 0-0 at halftime, expect 2nd half goals.
  • Heracles tend to score and concede. I would lay Heracles if Heracles score first.