Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

Prices taken from www.willhill.com

Where I mention BANKER below, this signifies those matches where I think the favourites should win. These matches I would personally prioritise as regards DRT.

Remember the strategies:

Lay the 0-0 halftime score in certain signalled matches

Lay the 0-0 2nd half in matches where goals were expected but have not yet materialised

Lay the 2-2 scoreline, especially early on in matches. 2-2 shows us that teams are scoring and conceding.

Lay the away team leading 0-2 before halftime, especially if they are favourites. The home team is usually galvanised by the halftime team talk.

Lay the underdog if they score first in certain matches (especially BANKER matches where I would back the BANKERS if they conceded first at enhanced odds).

Lay the underdog scoring early in the first half, in the HALF TIME market , especially in BANKER matches.

Do note matches where one team is red carded. The opponents do tend to score next more often than not.

A great live chat yesterday. 2 highlights? Laying Valencia at 1.58 when 0-2 up. And backing Mjondalen at odds of 18 when 0-2 down. They won the match!

11:00 UK Levante v Atletico Madrid - 1.53 away

Standout stats

  • 3 Madrid wins in the last 4 head to heads. They did lose on their last visit to Levante.
  • this is 15th v 3rd in La Liga. Madrid are playing for 3rd place. Levante are 5 points from the relegation zone.

Levante

  • 3 matches remain so a win today will see Levante safe.
  • they have 2 wins in their last 3 matches, both 1-0 wins
  • unbeaten in 2 at home
  • lost 0-5 at home to the top 2 and lost at home to 5th, 6th and 7th.
  • only 2 wins v teams abobve them at home.
  • only 1 0-0 at home
  • 8 0-0's at halftime at home
  • opponents score dfirst in 13 of 17 matches at home

Atl Madrid

  • 2 match winning streak away
  • no defeat in 12 overall.
  • 3 consecutive clean sheets
  • only 1 loss in 17 matches
  • have won all matches home and away v 15th and lower. It is against 12 th and higher away that Madrid have been vulnerable.
  • scored 11 goals in the first 1/2 hour of away matches.

Profitable in-play opportunities

  • a must win for Levante will ensure a tight match, I'd imagine. Atl Madrid only won 0-1 away to teams either side of Levante in the league.
  • Atl Madrid are the form side, winning all v 15th and lower so Levante will be relying on defence today to get them out of trouble.
  • Atl Madrid tend to score a lot first half away. Enough to lay the 0-0 halftime score? I would delay given the importance of this match to Levante today.
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11:30 UK Chievo v Verona - 2.3 home

Standout stats

  • 0-1 Chievo, Hellas 0-1 and Chievo 0-1 in the last 3 head to heads.
  • this is 14th v 15th in Seria A.Both sides are 12 points clear of relegation.
  • Chievo are the form side here. Only 2 losses in 13 matches. Only 1 loss v 9th and lower at home.
  • Hellas are a bit more inconsistent. Only 3 losses in 11 matches were against Lazio, Inter Milan, and Udinese.
  • only 1 loss away v 12th and lower.

Profitable in-play opportunities

  • a win for one of these 2 today guarantees Seria A survival.  Even a draw should guarantee survival. It's that time of the season where I am very lukewarm about a number of matches. Chievo look in the best form here in recent terms.
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13:30 UK Man City v QPR - 1.2 home

Standout stats

  • 0-0 and 2-2 in the last 2 head to heads.
  • this is 2nd v 19th in the Premiership. Man City want a top 3 spot. That is their goal. And United in 4th , 5 points away, will keep them honest.
  • QPR are on 27 points.6 points from 3rd bottom.
  • A quick look at the teams as at this part of the season form is none too reliable as desperation takes hold for some teams.
  • No draw in 11 for City and they have won their last 3. 5 consecutive home wins but against bottom 4, they have scored and conceded, 2 draws and a win.
  • QPR have a mountain to climb form wise. They have lost all away matches v the top 12.
  • They have scored in their last 10 away matches so expect a goal today?
  • Both teams have scored in their last 5 away.
  • QPR have conceded 22 goals away in the first half.

Profitable in-play opportunities

  • QPR have to end all defeats away to top 15 to have a hope here.
  • Stranger things have happened at this part of the season.
  • lay the 0-0 halftime score as QPR concede a huge amount first half away.
  • Lay QPR if they score first but if the 0-1 correct score odds are large enough, take out insurance on the 0-1
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13:30 UK Ajax v Cambuur Leeuwarden - 1.4 home

Standout stats

  • this is not a match which interests me.We saw a couple of weeks ago that Ajax downed tools as soon as PSV won the title. I will be ignoring the Dutch Eredivisie unless there is a good match featuring teams who need to win.

Profitable in-play opportunities

  • A match to leave. Ajax have nothing to play for.
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13:30 UK Twente v Dordrecht - 1.2 home

Standout stats

  • 2-2, 1-2 and 0-4 for Twente in head to heads.
  • Twente are 12 points from relegation zone. Dordrecht are down.
  • 2 matches remain.
  • Sorry, this is where I end.

Profitable in-play opportunities

  • only 3 wins for Dordrecht this season and all defeats bar 1 away v 13th and higher.
  • Twente have all wins v bottom 2 this season. This is Twente's last home match of the season so expect a good send off in what is a DEAD RUBBER.
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I am not going to research the Dutch Eredivisie . These sides simply cannot be trusted once the league has been sorted out, from the Champion perspective.

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14:00 UK Dynamo Moscow v Torpedo Moscow - 1.33 home banker

Standout stats

  • 3 consecutive Dynamo Moscow wins in head to heads.
  • this is 4th v 16th ( bottom) in the Russian Premier League. Dynamo can go 3rd in the Russian Premier League.

Dynamo Moscow

  • scored and conceded in their last 2 matches at home and conceded in their last 4 at home
  • only 3 losses in 15 matches.
  • only 1 loss in 7 at home was against Zenit.
  • failed to score in only 5 matches
  • all wins at home v 10th and lower saw them score 2+ goals
  • 67% over 2.5 goals at home
  • no 0-0 at home
  • 17 of 28 goals scored at home came first half.

Torpedo Moscow

  • conceded in their last 3 away
  • no win in 5 matches.
  • only 4 wins this season
  • failed to score in 3 of their last 4 away matches.
  • failed to score in 4 of their last 5 away.
  • all defeats away v top 7.
  • no win home or away v top 7 saw 10 losses and 2 draws.
  • only 1 0-0 away

Profitable in-play opportunities

  • Dynamo are the form side and have an excellent record at home v 7th and lower. Torpedo keep losing v top 7 . 67% over 2.5 goals at home suggests Dinamo Moscow will win 2-1, 3-0 something like that. Dynamo Moscow should score 2+ goals today and simply outscore Torpedo who have failed to score in 4 of their last 5.
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14:30 UK Aberdeen v Celtic - 1.8 away

Standout stats

  • 4 consecutive Celtic wins in head to heads.
  • 1st v 2nd in the SPL
  • 3 matches remain and Celtic are champions.
  • Aberdeen will finish 2nd.
  • Research over as this is a dead rubber.

Profitable in-play opportunities

  • this is a dead rubber.
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4pm - 16:00 UK Chelsea v Liverpool - 2. home

Standout stats

  • Chelsea are champions and Liverpool are in need of points in a push for 4th place.
  • Chelsea are unbeaten in 15 matches and in 17 at home.
  • Only 2 wins in 6 matches for Liverpool sees them off the boil a little.
  • Liverpool have lost away to the top 4 this season and Chelsea have home wins to nil v 3rd, 4th and 6th.
  • 32 goals scored at home for Chelsea is superb

Profitable in-play opportunities

  • As you can see , research is abridged because Chelsea are Champions. The need is with Liverpool today.They are pushing for 4th spot.
  • Form wise, Chelsea are the form side and Liverpool are yet to beat any top 4 side. Will Chelsea do a Bayern Munich and start to drop off now the title has been guaranteed?
  • A dangerous match to trade therefore.
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16:00 UK Villarreal v Elche - 1.4 home

Standout stats

  • 2-2 when these 2 met earlier this season. Villareal were 0-2 up in that match.
  • this is 6th v 13th in La Liga.

Villareal

  • no win in 4 at home failing to score in those 4 matches.
  • no win in 9 overall.
  • failed to score in 7 of their last 9 matches.
  • 8 0-0's at halftime in their last 9 matches.
  • all defeats bar 1 at home came v teams above them in the league.
  • only 1 0-0 at home
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 17 of 26 home goals scored 2nd half.

Elche

  • 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
  • all defeats home and away v 1st - 5th.
  • did beat 7th and 8th 1-2
  • only 1 0-0 away

Profitable in-play opportunities

  • Villareal are really off the ball and were having trouble scoring. Villareal are strong favourites here. So favour the market or lay the struggling home side?
  • Villareal have failed to score in 7 of 9 matches but their losses at home are almost exclusively v teams above them.
  • Elche are in a bit of form but emphatically lost home and away to top 5 and playing 6th today. That may be where the short odds for Villareal come from. Villareal score more 2nd half than 1st so lay any 0-0 at the start of the 2nd half
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16:00 UK St Etienne v Nice  - 1.55 home

Standout stats

  • 1-1 and 0-0 in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 5th v 15th in French Ligue 1 St Etienne are 5 points shy of 3rd in the league. Nice are 5 points shy of 3rd bottom.
  • 3 matches and 9 points remain this season so a win for Nice sees them safe. A win for St Etienne could see them nearer to3rd spot

St Etienne

  • only 2 losses in 12 matches were 1-0 losses. The 5 losses since October 2014 were all 1-0 losses.
  • 4 match winning streak at home.
  • 4 consecutive home clean sheets.
  • 2 0-1 losses at home v 1st and 16th.
  • 29% over 2.5 goals
  • only 1 0-0 at home.
  • 8 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 17 of 25 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • scored first in 12 of 17 matches at home

Nice

  • no draw in 5 away
  • scored in their last 9 and in their last 5 away
  • scored and conceded in 8 of their last 9 matches.
  • 2 wins in their last 3 away
  • only 2 wins in 13 matches.
  • no draws away v top 7. 3 draws away were 0-0
  • only 3 0-0's away

Profitable in-play opportunities

  • I don't think this will end 0-0. Lay the late 0-0. Nice tend to avoid draws away v top teams.
  • St Etienne are in excellent form but 29% over 2.5 goals at home suggests 1-0 or 2-0 if they win, 1-1 if they draw. I will favour the home side today as they have the great form. If Nice score first, lay them but cover the 0-1 correct score if the 0-1 odds are high enough
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16:30 UK Zenit St Petersburg v Rostov - 1.3 home banker

Standout stats

  • 0-5 to Zenit in September 2015.
  • This is 1st v 11th in the Russian Premier League.
  • 6 points clear at the top.Rostov are 4 points above the relegation zone.

Zenit

  • no defeat in 11 matches and 6 at home
  • scored in their last 8 home amtches.
  • 3 draws in their last 4
  • 5 wins and a draw in their last 5 home matches.
  • only 2 losses all season
  • beaten all teams 9th and lower at home
  • 6 clean sheets in 7 of those matches.
  • 20 of 32 home goals scored 2nd half.

Rostov

  • only 1 loss in 6 matches.
  • all all 3 matches played home and away v top 3.
  • only 1 away win v 3rd bottom.
  • conceded 6 and 7 away to 3rd and 4th
  • only 1 0-0 away

Profitable in-play opportunities

  • 4 matches remain and Zenit have a 6 point gap at the top. They will have one hand on the title with a win today. Rostov need points but lose emphatically v top 3 overall and top 4 away.
  • lay Rostov if they score first.
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17:00 UK Parma v Napoli - 1.33 away

Standout stats

  • 2 Parma 1-0 wins ended with a Napoli 2-0 win in the last head to head.
  • this is 20th v 4th in Seria A.
  • Parma are down. Napoli are still entertaining a top 3 spot. I am not sure what a distraction the Europa League Semi-final will be.
  • 3 consecutive 1-0 wins for Parma so at least they were battling. 4 matches remain for them. Parma lost 4-0 in their last 3 matches.
  • all defeats for Parma v top 5 were 1-2 and wins v juve and Fior were 1-0.
  • Napoli have scored 3 and 4 goals away v 18th and 19th away.

Profitable in-play opportunities

  • Parma have 3 1-0 wins and keep it to 1 goal at home v top teams . They are down, not mathematically though, but logically. Napoli have a Europa League semi final 2nd leg in their minds which may distract them. If on form, Napoli could score 3/4 goals today.
  • Look out for a tight match and favour Napoli in this tight match. Their need is greater than parma's.
  • Lay any late 0-0
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17:00 UK Besiktas v Gaziantepspor - 1.25 home banker

Standout stats

  • 3 consecutive Besiktas wins in head to heads. This is a must win. Galatasary fought out a 1-0 late winner. Fenerbahce came back from 1-0 and 2-1 down to win 2-3 . Now Besiktas must win.
  • this is 3rd v 12th in the Turkish Super Lig. Besiktas go top with a win. Gaz are 11 points clear of the 3rd bottom.
  • Only 5 losses all season for Besiktas. Their only losses at home were v top 2. At their best , Besiktas will score 2/3 goals at home today.
  • Gaz could be tough to beat today. They have only lost 1-0 away to 1st, 2nd and 4th. They play 3rd today. They have failed to score in all matches home and away v top 4.
  • They have also failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches and in 4 of their last 5 away matches.

Profitable in-play opportunities

  • 0-0 seems best scenario for Gaz today. Besiktas should simply outscore Gaz today and must win. Look at Fenerbahce yesterday. They were 1-0 and 2-1 down and won . Why? Because they had to. Galatasary and Fenerbahce won. Besiktas must win.
  • That's the angle in today.
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19:00 UK Steaua Bucharest v Concordia Chiajna - 1.17 home

Standout stats

  • 4 consecutive Steaua wins in head to heads.
  • This is 2nd v 11th in Romania. Steaua go top with a win.

Steaua

  • no draw in 10 at home.
  • 3 match losing streak at home
  • conceded in their last 4 at home
  • 5 losses at home v 1st, 3rd, 15th, 17th and 18th. 4 of the losses were 0-1.
  • wins at home v 5th-14th inclusive
  • only 1 0-0 at home

Concordia

  • 3 match losing streak away
  • only 2 wins in 8 matches.
  • no win v top 6 home or away but draws away v 3rd, 4th, 5th , all score draws.
  • only 1 0-0 away

Profitable in-play opportunities

  • Steaua keep winning head to heads but are in poor form. That said, they are comprehensive in their wins v 5th-14th inclusive at home. Concordia, like Steaua, are on a losing run. I would lay Concordia if they score first as they tend towards draws so should concede.
  • 1.17 shots should lead at halftime and score 3+ goals but Steaua are in poor form.
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19:15 UK Porto v Gil Vicente - 1.06 home banker to lead at halftime

Standout stats

  • 5-2-2-5 scored in the last 4 head to heads.
  • This is a must win for Porto today. Like Barcelona and Benfica, Porto should win to nil and score before halftime. Benfica were 2-0 up at halftime. Porto should make the breakthrough before halftime. They have no Champions league excuses. Let's have a quick look at the form.
  • This is a must-win for Gil vicente who are 2nd bottom.They remain 2nd bottom with a win today.
  • 11 clean sheets in 13 matches for Porto.  8 consecutive home clean sheets.
  • Gil Vicente have not beaten any side in the top 4 home or away. They have lost all matches. They failed to score in 6 of 7 defeats home and away v top 4.
  • A 0-5 loss at home to Benfica is a template for today

Profitable in-play opportunities

  • Porto are expected to score at least 5 goals  and potentially win to nil. We saw with Barcelona that it's hard to expect Porto to be winning at halftime. But at 1.06 they should and the odds are tempting in the halftime market at about 1.29 judging by yesterday. In the last 1-5 win, Porto were 0-1 up after a 36th minute goal.Porto have had only 3 0-0's at halftime at home. 7 1-0's at halftime at home.They have lead at halftime in their last 8 at home.