Champions League teams simply look ropey this weekend so please know your Champions League sides. I think it is just Napoli today. I will be tweeting from 14:00. I really do regret not doing some wholesale laying of Champions League sides this weekend.
13:30 - Burnley v C Palace - 2.42 Burnley
- New manager syndrome for Palace makes them a tough team to read.
- Burnley I must say are becoming reliant on top teams' carelessness. 2-3 v 9 man Chelsea and a late equaliser v Tottenham is all very welcome for Burnley and I am guessing 4 points they were not counting on.
- A 0-1 loss to WBA was not unexpected.
- Palace are yet to score and have 3 defeats under Frank De Boer. Palace will score at some point, but when?
- A very strong angle? Burnley have drawn the first half in 9 of 11 home matches. If 0-0 at halftime I would look to a goal 2nd half. Palace will be keener to score.
16:00 - Swansea v Newcastle - 2.5 Swansea
- Newly promoted Newcastle were very readable last year in less rarified air but are hard to quantify with just 3 matches played. THeir loss to Huddersfield may have been a different result had it remained 11 v 11.
- The loss to Tottenham was inevitable , the win v West Ham a surprise.
- Swansea had a tough start against a Southampton side who battered them without scoring, then humbled v Man Utd and beating a misfiring Palace.
- No angles here at all.
11:00 - Deportivo v Sociedad - 2.6 Sociedad
- 5-1 Depor and 1-0 Sociedad in head to heads last year.
- The market cannot split these 2.
- Sociedad have scored 3 goals in each of their 2 wins.
- Depor lost to Real Madrid and were 0-2 up v Levante before Levante made it 2-2.
- Very small sample but it seems Sociedad have an attacking threat and Depor may be troubled holding onto any lead.
- At this early stage of the season the away side are favoured today, despite acknowledging Depor's 5-1 win last season.
15:15 - Athletic Bilbao v Girona - 1.71 Ath
- Girona are one of the band of the unknown. Newly promoted sides, quite a few of which have surprised.
- A very cautious start for Bilbao who are yet to concede in a 0-0 and 0-1 away win.
- Girona produced an epic v Atl Madrid before Madrid came back to 2-2. You will recall I would have made £4800 if Madrid had won that match.
- Quite simply Girona may surprise again.
- Bilbao were top 7 last season and only Barcelona and Real Madrid beat them at home last season. So this will be a tester for Girona. Are you taken by that superb home form of Bilbao and more importantly, will home be a fortress this year too?
17:30 - Celta Vigo v Alaves - 1.8 Celta
- 0-0 and 3-1 Alaves in the last 2 head to heads.
- Celta have scored in their 2 defeats, which were defeats by a single goal.
- Alaves have lost without scoring to Leganes and Barcelona.
- Celta tended to do their home winning v 9th and lower (Alaves were 9th) last season so outside of the top echelons, they are expected to be competitive.
- In Gomez they have a player scoring their goals at the moment.
- Only 3 away wins for Alaves v top 14 last season.
- Slight nod towards Celta Vigo who are competitive, albeit in defeat so far this season. Alaves as I say are yet to score.
19:45 - Villarreal v Betis - 1.91 Villareal
- 0-0 2-0 Villareal and 0-1 Villareal in the last 3 head to heads.
- This is Villareal's first home match of the season, following 2 away defeats without scoring.
- Betis lost 2-0 to Barca and beat Celta Vigo 2-1.
- Villareal, let's remember, were 5th last season so sooner, rather than later, they will start to score and win.
- On 13 occasions at home last season, Villareal scored 2 goals at least.
- 7 wins and a draw v bottom 8 at home last season for Villareal.
- That is where Betis resided last season.
- Betis lost every single away match v the top 10.
- Now we have to make an assumption that Villareal retain the qualities that brought a top 5 spot. If that is the case, Villareal really should not be losing in their first home match of the season.
- Pato for me is the most eyecatching absentee for Villareal, he has been let go. Only 2 goals in 11 appearances for Villareal suggests he was not integral to the top 5 finish.
14:30 - Hertha Berlin v Werder Bremen - 2.02 Hertha
- A renewed Werder? 2 wins to nil in head to heads last year.
- Werder have had a tough start v Hoffenheim and Bayern Munich. Hertha beat Stuttgart but inevitably lost v Dortmund.
- Cards not shown for either side yet. Werder are usually ultra reliable as both teams to score and goal before halftime.
- The only home match Hertha did not score in last season was v Werder Bremen!
- Both teams scored in 14 away matches last season for Werder, and one of the matches both teams did not score in away was v Hertha!
- That clears that up then! No strong angles.
17:00 - Schalke v Stuttgart - 1.78 Schalke
- Stuttgart are newly promoted.
- Both teams have a win and a loss this season. The logical approach is to oppose any newly promoted side away to a seasoned Bundesliga side.
14:00 - St Etienne v Angers - 2.14 St Etienne
- 2 consecutive 2-1 wins for St Etienne in head to heads saw Angers score first in both encounters. Note that for today.
- 3 wins for St Etienne ended with a loss v PSG.In their 3 wins they kept clean sheets. 2 of the wins were 1-0.
- 3 score draws for Angers and a 0-2 win v newly promoted Amiens sees Angers getting on the scoresheet.
- In 2 score draws, Angers had to score the last goal in order to equalise.
- Only 3 home losses last year for St Etienne and 2 came v the top 3.Only 3 away wins for Angers last season v top 16
- If that form is upheld (and there are no guarantees) then St Etienne have a good chance today.
- Nearly 2/3rd of St Etienne's scored goals last season came 2nd half. That was the reputation they tended to have and I tended to profit from if St E had not scored by halftime. Mark that today.
16:00 - Lyon v Guingamp - 1.41 Lyon
- Guingamp intriguingly are unbeaten in the last 3 head to heads.
- The market seems right here given Guingamp have lost 11 of 13 matches away v top 6.
- Lyon scored 4-2-3 goals before Nantes kept them to a 0-0.
- Guingamp have beaten Metz and newly promoted Strasbourg but lost to PSG and Nice.
- I think Lyon can continue their impressing home scoring today (7 goals in 2 matches to date) and simply outscore Guingamp.
20:00 - Marseille v Rennes - 1.74 Marseille
- 2-5 Rennes, 3-2 Rennes, and 2-0 Marseille in recent head to heads. Note Marseille have scored 2 goals in each of the last 3 head to heads (we'll not mention the 8 conceded last 2 head to heads).
- Rennes have scored and conceded in their 4 matches without winning. They conceded 2 goals at least in their last 3 matches.
- Marseille got a tonking off Monaco and are unlikely to be the last team that happens to. Prior to that they had conceded 0-0-1 in 2 wins and a score draw.
- No strong angles bar that number 2 which seems to follow Rennes around in head to heads and this season. Rennes did score 2 goals in their last 2 matches.
- I might go for a 2-2 desmond correct score as a trading angle today.
11:30 - Inter v Spal - 1.26 Inter
- I like Inter Milan this season. Spal are a relative unknow. Inter's 1-3 win v Roma is a showcase of their added strength this season.
- Spal are unbeaten and surprised Udinese with a 3-2 win. Inter have scored 3 goals in both of their matches.
- I expect an Inter win even if Spal get on the scoresheet today. This for me is a more formidable Inter Milan this year. We started seeing this in preseason wins v big names.
14:00 - Atalanta v Sassuolo - 1.61 Atalanta
- 3 score draws and an Atalanta win in the last 4 head to heads.
- Atalanta are 3rd bottom with 2 defeats, albeit v Roma and Napoli.
- Sassuolo drew 0-0 with Genoa and lost 3-0 to Torino.
- Only 3 defeats at home for Atalanta last season suggests they will click into gear soon.
- Sassuolo failed to beat a top 6 side last season, Atalanta were 4th.
- We should expect Atalanta to start winning and at home, and today could be the day. They should not lose at least.
14:00 - Cagliari v Crotone - 1.71 Cagliari
- 2 2-1 wins for Cagliari last year in head to heads.
- 2 away losses v Juventus and AC Milan was as tough as it gets for Cagliari. Today's match lowers the bar.
- Crotone have a loss and 0-0 and are yet to score. They too met AC Milan. Cagliari were actually more competitive against AC Milan.
- I would be happy to lay Crotone if Crotone wins the first set.
14:00 - Lazio v AC Milan - 2.48 Lazio
- 2-0 Milan and 1-1 last 2 head to heads. These are 2 teams where we should look at transfers.
- £21.5 million transfers out for Milan and £185 million transferred in. This may negate the head to heads given the apparent strengthening of the Milanese.
- A defender and an attacker are the 2 biggest buys for Milan.
- Lazio effectively dropped 3 points in a 0-0 with SPAL where Lazio dominated. They beat Chievo away with a late winner.
- Milan beat Crotone as they should have and beat Cagliari. Their new signing is yet to score.
- An interesting match but a watching brief given the huge spending from AC Milan.
14:00 - Udinese v Genoa - 2.44 Udinese
- 1-1 and 3-0 Udinese last 2 head to heads.
- Not sure what to make of these 2 just yet so I will leave this until more form is available.
- 2 losses for Udinese saw both teams scoring. 0-0 and 2-4 loss for Genoa. They led Juve 2-0 but were never going to hold out!
- 2 good trades from both sides last 2 matches (Udinese came back from 2-0 down and a Desmond), Genoa 2-0 lead, 2-2 halftime 2-4 Juve fulltime.
14:00 - Verona v Fiorentina - 2.26 Fiorentina
- No recent head to heads tells us Verona are newly promoted.
- Only goal for Verona so far is a penalty v Napoli in a loss and a 0-0 v Crotone.
- Fiorentina lost to Inter Milan and Sampdoria. The Samp winner was a penalty.
- I would expect Fiorentina to be more competitive today but we do have the question mark regarding Verona. We simply don't know too much about them and are assuming as newly promoted that they will struggle.
17:00 - Benevento v Torino - 1.84 Torino
- Newly promoted Benevento take on established Torino.
- Benevento scored first v Sampdoria before losing 2-1. They lost 0-1 to Bologna.
- 1-1 draw with Bologna for Torino and 3-0 win v Sassuolo does suggest Torino should get a positive result today.
- Benevento kept Bologna to 0-0 until the 2nd half. Torino may simply have too much nouse for them today.
19:45 - Bologna v Napoli (Champions League) - 1.37 Napoli
- Bologna fans look away now. 16 goals conceded in the last 3 head to heads.
- 2 3-1 wins to date for Napoli, and along with Inter Milan, they are lively outsiders for the title.
- Bologna's season was highlighted in the match above.
- This should be a case of Napoli outscoring Bologna today.
11:30 - Heerenveen v PSV - 1.63 PSV
- 3 consecutive 1-1 head to head draws ended with a 4-3 PSV win last head to head.
- Both sides remain unbeaten this season. Heerenveen score drew their first 2 matches then beat ADO Den Haag 1-2.
- PSV are 3 from 3, scoring 3-4-2 goals.
- Heereveen did not beat top 6 home or away last season but did score in 10 of the 12 matches. We may see Heerenveen on the score sheet today without winning.
- Only 2 defeats for PSV, against Feyenoord and they still only finished 3rd. Points are precious.
- PSV only conceded 2 goals on 4 occasions last season so if Heerenveen score first, the logical suggestion is that PSV will be the likelier next goal scorers.
13:30 - AZ Alkmaar v Breda - 1.34 AZ
- 3 consecutive head to head wins for AZ. 2 wins at home saw them scoring 3 goals. The last win was competitive, AZ were 1-2 down.
- AZ were very competitive in defeat to PSV but won their next 2 matches this season. AZ have scored 2 goals in all matches to date, including that PSV defeat.
- Breda have been leaking goals. 10 goals conceded in 3 games sees 2 losses and a 2-2 draw.
- I fear for Breda today, even if AZ manage only 2 goals. Let's hope Breda take the lead as they did last head to head when they lost!
13:30 - Sparta Rotterdam v Twente - 2.36 Sparta
- 3-1 Twente and 1-0 Sparta in the last 2 head to heads.
- Is this the Twente of old? The Twente who used to form the triumvirate in Holland alongside PSV and Ajax?
- 3 consecutive defeats suggests concern for Twente. They conceded 2 goals in each. 2 of the defeats were 2-1.
- Sparta lost their opener but have score drawn their next 2 matches.They lost to VVV, so did Twente. They score drew Zwolle, who beat Twente.
- I remember the Twente of old so this poor form is a headscratcher. For that reason I need to see a little more of Twente this season to get a flavour for the team and their welfare.
13:30 - Utrecht v Roda JC - 1.37 Utrecht
- Head to heads have tended to be tight. 1-1 Utrecht, 1-0 Roda, 0-0, 1-0 Utrecht.
- All defeats for Roda so far, conceding 4-3-2 goals.
- Utrecht won their first 2 matches, then lost to Groningen.
- Utrecht were 4th last season.Their 4 home defeats last season came v top 8 teams.
- Roda are lucky to be here, finishing 2nd bottom last season.
- Only 1 win for Roda last season away from home.
- The market expects last year's patterns to be upheld. Do note the tight head to heads.
15:45 - Groningen v VVV - 2.06 Groningen
- Last head to head 2013.
- Groningen have conceded 3-3-1 goals this season. They did beat Utrecht though, last year's 4th.
- 2 wins and a loss v Ajax for VVV.
- No surprises from either party re the results this season.
- Tough to evaluate this as their is no recent history between these 2.