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ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

12:00 - Huddersfield v Bournemouth - 2.44 Bournemouth

  • 4-0 Bournemouth in the last head to head.

Huddersfield (19th)

  • In with a chance of survival, so tight it is between 13th and 20th in the league.
  • 5 consecutive defeats.
  • No win in 8 matches.
  • Failed to score in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 5 matches.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Only 1 win v top 10 home and away.
  • BUT v 7th and lower at home, only 1 loss.
  • 8 of 11 goals scored at home came 1st half.

Bournemouth (10th)

  • Unbeaten in 7 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away.
  • All defeats bar 1 came v the top 11.

Conclusions

  • I am not sure why the market is so luke warm about Bournemouth who are in fine unbeaten form.
  • Unbeaten in 7 and playing a Huddersfield with no win in 8 matches and failing to score in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Is it because Huddersfield have only 1 loss v 7th and lower at home?
  • I would watch this via the in-play stats with a bias towards Bournemouth.

14:15 - Newcastle v Man Utd - 1.67 Man Utd

  • Man Utd do not have an upcoming Champions League match this week.
  • 4-1 to Man Utd the last time these 2 met.

Newcastle (16th)

  • 3 1-1 draws in their last 4 matches.
  • 1 point above relegation.
  • 3 consecutive home draws.
  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • No win in 8 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Not beaten a top 11 side.
  • Failed to score more than 1 goal v top 7 home and away.
  • 0-1 v Man City and 1-1 v Liverpool at home.

Man Utd (2nd)

  • Only 2 losses in 15 came v Man City and Tottenham.
  • 5 clean sheets in 6 matches.
  • 4-4-3-2-2-1-2 goals scored home and away v 16th and lower.

Conclusions

  • If Newcastle cannot score that 2nd goal v top 7, and Man Utd continue scoring their 2 goals v 16th and lower, it looks obvious today!
  • No Champions League distraction for Man Utd.
  • We may see 0-0 at halftime and I feel this is another of those matches where Mourinho would take a 0-1 win. Newcastle will be set up to stifle.

16:30 - Southampton v Liverpool - 1.83 Liverpool

  • 3-0 Liverpool in the last head to head.
  • Liverpool play Porto in the Champions League on the 14th February 2018.
  • Team news will be important here.
  • Liverpool tend to be unaffected in their Premier League results prior to Champions League.

Southampton (15th)

  • Scored and conceded last 7 at home.
  • No win in 6 at home.
  • 4 1-1 draws in 5 at home.
  • Not beaten a top 9 team.
  • 0-1, 1-1, 1-1 at home v top 6.

Liverpool (3rd)

  • Only 3 losses.
  • No 0-0 away.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • 4-5- goals scored away v 12th and 13th but 1-1 and 0-1 loss v 15th and 16th away.

Conclusions

  • We might see team changes today for Liverpool. If Firmino and Salah play though, they have a better chance.
  • Saints are tight v top 6, 1-1 or 0-1 loss so note that today as well as Liverpool's 1-1 and 0-1 struggles away v 15h and 16th.
  • Saints have scored and conceded in their last 7 at home and I would look to lay the Saints if they score first.

SPANISH LA LIGA

11:00 - Sevilla v Girona - 1.74 Sevilla

  • 0-1 Sevilla in an earlier meeting.
  • Sevilla are in the Champions League but not until next week.

Sevilla (7th)

  • Only 1 win in 8.
  • Unbeaten at halftime at home, 5 0-0's.
  • Only 1 home loss was a 3-5. beat 6th and 8th at home.
  • 11 of 17 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Girona (9th)

  • Must be delighted with top 10.
  • Unbeaten in 4, 2 consecutive away draws includes 1-1 v Atl Madrid.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 1 of the last 14 matches.
  • Scored and conceded without winning away v top 10 teams.

Conclusions

  • Girona have an away habit of scoring and conceding and not winning which suggests laying them if they lead.
  • Sevilla look sturdy enough at home.
  • Note Sevilla are unbeaten at halftime at home with 5 0-0's so no surprise were this a 0-0 at halftime.

15:15 - Barcelona v Getafe - 1.14 Barcelona

  • 2 consecutive 6-0 home wins in head to heads.

Barcelona (1st)

  • Unbeaten.
  • Great trading side - see Alaves, Sociedad and a recent comeback v Espanyol.
  • Scored in every match.
  • Scored 2+ goals in their last 10 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.

Getafe (11th)

  • 3 consecutive draws.
  • Recent 2-0 loss to Atl Madrid should be the tempate for today.
  • No win in 8 away, conceding in their last 9 away.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away.
  • 1-2 and 2-0 losses v top 2.
  • 9 of 12 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • All things being equal this should be an easy win for Barcelona, something like a 2-0. The market expects 3/4 goals from them.
  • Getafe may keep this tight so a 0-0 at halftime would not surprise.

17:30 - Celta Vigo v Espanyol - 1.9 Celta Vigo

  • 2-2 and 2-1 Espanyol in the last 2 head to heads.

Celta Vigo (8th)

  • Only 1 loss in 6 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Only played one of the bottom 5 at home.
  • 11 of 16 goals scored at home came 1st half.

Espanyol (15th)

  • Scored in their last 4 away.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Only 1 away win v bottom of the league.

Conclusions

  • Celta should be confident of getting a positive result today. Based more on Espanyol's winless record away.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

19:45 - Valencia v Levante - 1.5 Valencia

  • 1-0 Levante and 1-1 in the last 2 head to heads.

Valencia (3rd)

  • All 6 defeats have come within the last 9 matches.
  • 3 consecutive defeats.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 10 matches.
  • 100% wins v 6th and lower at home.

Levante (17th)

  • Only 3 wins.
  • No win in 10 and in 5 away.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away.
  • No win v top 7 away but 2 losses and 3 draws.

Conclusions

  • The poor losing run for Valencia needs a context. Simply, v 6th and lower at home, they have a 100% win record.
  • Levante did keep them to a 1-1 and you'd think that is best case Levante today.
  • A 0-0 at halftime would not surprise.

ITALIAN SERIA A

14:00 - Inter v Bologna - 1.48 Inter

  • 0-1 Inter and 1-1 last 2 head to heads.

Inter (4th)

  • 5 consecutive draws and 4 consecutive 1-1 draws.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • No win in 8 and in 4 at home.
  • Only 2 defeats, one at home.
  • 4 clean sheet wins and a 1-1 at home v 11th and lower.
  • 8 of 10 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Bologna (12th)

  • 6 defeats in 8.
  • No draw in 11 away.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in their last 5 away.
  • All defeats away v top 11.

Conclusions

  • An opportunity for Inter to end their draw sequence as Bologna have not had a draw in 11 away.
  • If Bologna are conceding 2 goals away then Inter need to step up and score more than their 1 a game recently.
  • We may see a tight first half.

14:00 - Sampdoria v Verona - 1.53 Sampdoria

  • 0-1 Verona and 0-0 in the last 2 head to heads.

Sampdoria (6th)

  • Nice run of only 1 loss in 6, albeit lost to Benevento!!
  • Unbeaten in 4 at home, includes 2 1-1's v Torino and Roma.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 5-0, 2-0, 2-1 v bottom 4 at home.

Verona (19th)

  • 5 losses and a coupon-busting 1-4 spanking of Fiorentina recently.
  • Failed to score in 4 of their last 6 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 away.
  • Not beaten top 6. Only played 4 of the top 10 away, and 2+ goal losses to nil.

Conclusions

  • Sampdoria should be eyeing a 2+ goal win, perhaps to nil, today.
  • Verona turned up, and how!, against Fiorentina. Our assumption is that this emphatic win was more to do with Fiorentina's shortcomings than some Verona resurrection.
  • Note the 5 0-0's at halftime at home Sampdoria. Quite a high %. I would look at 2-0, 3-0 3-1 2nd half were that the case today.

14:00 - Torino v Udinese - 1.89 Torino

  • 2-2, 2-2, 2-3 Torino in the last 3 head to heads.

Torino (10th)

  • Only 4 defeats.
  • 2 consecutive home wins.
  • 2 losses at home v top 5.
  • Only 2 wins in 10 matches v top 9 includes a 2-3 v Udinese. 5 draws.
  • 9 goals scored at home between 31st-45th minutes.

Udinese (9th)

  • Only 1 loss in 10 matches was v Lazio away.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • All bar one of the 5 away defeats came v top 11 teams.
  • 11 of 16 goals conceded away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • I could imagine both teams scoring today. For old time's sake, a 2-2 pre match back?
  • Udinese are in good form under new manager. Torino are in fine fettle but only 10th because they have drawn too many matches.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. Slight favour towards Torino given Udinese's losses away have tended to be v top 11 teams (they did score in a few of those).

19:45 - Roma v Benevento - 1.18 Roma

  • No formal research here. Roma are a Champions League side but do not play this week.
  • Much like Benevento's loss to Napoli last weekend, this looks an obvious call here.
  • Poor form of late for Roma needs a context. All defeats have come v top 8 sides.
  • Benevento have a 100% loss record away and have tended to concede 2 goals at least v top 7 teams.
  • Expect a home win, hope Benevento produce an apparent shock in-play!

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 - Stuttgart v Mgladbach - 2.6 Stuttgart

  • 3 consecutive Mgladbach wins in head to heads.

Stuttgart (14th)

  • Only 1 win in 9 matches.
  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • No draw in 7 at home.
  • Did beat Dortmund at home but failed to score at home c 7th and higher.

Mgladbach (10th)

  • Only 2 wins in 8 matches came at home.
  • 4 consecutive away defeats.
  • Conceded last 6 away.
  • No 0-0.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Opponents scored first away in 8/10 away and led at halftime 7/10 away.

Conclusions

  • The odds suggest a tight match where the market has not take sides.
  • 2 sides in recent poor winless form.2 sides conceding recently.
  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on Mgladbach.

17:00 - Werder Bremen v Wolfsburg - 2.06 Werder Bremen

  • 2-1 Werder, 1-2 Werder and 1-1 last 3 head to heads.

Werder Bremen (15th)

  • All wins under new manager.
  • Unbeaten in 5 at home under new manager albeit 3 consecutive draws now.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 11th and lower but 7 draws (4 were 0-0) and a single 1-0 win.

Wolfsburg (13th)

  • Only 5 defeats but 12 draws.
  • 1-1-0-0-0-0-1 goals scored recently away from home.
  • Not beaten any team below them home or away albeit 4 draws, 2 1-0 losses away.

Conclusions

  • A hint that Werder might get something today given their transformation under new management.
  • Not a match I want to prioritise really as the draw looks to be in play, indeed so does 0-0.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

11:30 - Ajax v Twente - 1.16 Ajax

  • 3-0 Ajax and 3-3 in the last 2 head to heads.
  • In Twente's hey-day they would never be such clear-cut outsiders.

Ajax (2nd)

  • Been an excellent trading team particularly in this way. Last 2 matches their opponents have scored first and early. Ajax ended up winning the first half. Take note!!
  • Failed to score in only one match.
  • 6 consecutive home wins.
  • Scored in their last 11 at home.
  • Scored 2+ goals in their last 6 at home.
  • 3+ goals scored in wins at home v 12th and lower.
  • 23 of 31 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Twente (17th)

  • 3 consecutive defeats.
  • Only 4 wins.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away.
  • 2+ goals conceded in defeats away v top 5.
  • 13 of 18 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • The form points to 2, maybe 3 or more goals from Ajax in a win where they may concede (they have conceded in all bar 1 win at home v 12th and lower).
  • I would go for a goal before halftime but 6 0-0's at halftime away for Twente is a high %.
  • Please note the rather lucrative Ajax habit of conceding first 10 mins, then coming back and leading at halftime! Let's hope this happens today.

 13:30 - Vitesse v Feyenoord - 2.06 Feyenoord

  • 0-2 and 1-0 Feyenoord in the last 2 head to heads.

Vitesse (7th)

  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Only 2 losses in 8 came away.
  • No defeat in 5 at home.
  • Scored in their last 4 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • Only lost at home to top 3.
  • Not beaten top 8 at home so draws a possibility.

Feyenoord (4th)

  • Only 2 losses in 13 matches came within the last 3 away matches.
  • No 0-0 away.
  • Only 1 away win v top 10.
  • 14 of 22 goals scored away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • I would lay Feyenoord if they scored first today. Vitesse have failed to score in only 3 matches and Feyenoord on their recent travels have been poor and unable to score that 2nd goal.