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DRT Daily Tips Bulletin, February 11, 2018

I hope to see you for a 14:00 live chat for our Italian friends in Seria A. Live chat webinar link is https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/6531773458264869635

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

12:00 - Huddersfield v Bournemouth - 2.44 Bournemouth

4-0 Bournemouth in the last head to head.

Huddersfield (19th)

In with a chance of survival, so tight it is between 13th and 20th in the league.
5 consecutive defeats.
No win in 8 matches.
Failed to score in 5 of their last 6 matches.
Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 5 matches.
No 0-0 at home.
Only 1 win v top 10 home and away.
BUT v 7th and lower at home, only 1 loss.
8 of 11 goals scored at home came 1st half.

Bournemouth (10th)

Unbeaten in 7 matches.
Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches.
6 0-0's at halftime away.
All defeats bar 1 came v the top 11.

Conclusions

I am not sure why the market is so luke warm about Bournemouth who are in fine unbeaten form.
Unbeaten in 7 and playing a Huddersfield with no win in 8 matches and failing to score in 5 of their last 6 matches.
Is it because Huddersfield have only 1 loss v 7th and lower at home?
I would watch this via the in-play stats with a bias towards Bournemouth.

14:15 - Newcastle v Man Utd - 1.67 Man Utd

Man Utd do not have an upcoming Champions League match this week.
4-1 to Man Utd the last time these 2 met.

Newcastle (16th)

3 1-1 draws in their last 4 matches.
1 point above relegation.
3 consecutive home draws.
Only 5 clean sheets.
No win in 8 at home.
Only 1 0-0 at home.
6 0-0's at halftime at home.
Not beaten a top 11 side.
Failed to score more than 1 goal v top 7 home and away.
0-1 v Man City and 1-1 v Liverpool at home.

Man Utd (2nd)

Only 2 losses in 15 came v Man City and Tottenham.
5 clean sheets in 6 matches.
4-4-3-2-2-1-2 goals scored home and away v 16th and lower.

Conclusions

If Newcastle cannot score that 2nd goal v top 7, and Man Utd continue scoring their 2 goals v 16th and lower, it looks obvious today!
No Champions League distraction for Man Utd.
We may see 0-0 at halftime and I feel this is another of those matches where Mourinho would take a 0-1 win. Newcastle will be set up to stifle.

16:30 - Southampton v Liverpool - 1.83 Liverpool

3-0 Liverpool in the last head to head.
Liverpool play Porto in the Champions League on the 14th February 2018.
Team news will be important here.
Liverpool tend to be unaffected in their Premier League results prior to Champions League.

Southampton (15th)

Scored and conceded last 7 at home.
No win in 6 at home.
4 1-1 draws in 5 at home.
Not beaten a top 9 team.
0-1, 1-1, 1-1 at home v top 6.

Liverpool (3rd)

Only 3 losses.
No 0-0 away.
Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
4-5- goals scored away v 12th and 13th but 1-1 and 0-1 loss v 15th and 16th away.

Conclusions

We might see team changes today for Liverpool. If Firmino and Salah play though, they have a better chance.
Saints are tight v top 6, 1-1 or 0-1 loss so note that today as well as Liverpool's 1-1 and 0-1 struggles away v 15h and 16th.
Saints have scored and conceded in their last 7 at home and I would look to lay the Saints if they score first.

SPANISH LA LIGA

11:00 - Sevilla v Girona - 1.74 Sevilla

0-1 Sevilla in an earlier meeting.
Sevilla are in the Champions League but not until next week.

Sevilla (7th)

Only 1 win in 8.
Unbeaten at halftime at home, 5 0-0's.
Only 1 home loss was a 3-5. beat 6th and 8th at home.
11 of 17 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Girona (9th)

Must be delighted with top 10.
Unbeaten in 4, 2 consecutive away draws includes 1-1 v Atl Madrid.
3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
Failed to score in only 1 of the last 14 matches.
Scored and conceded without winning away v top 10 teams.

Conclusions

Girona have an away habit of scoring and conceding and not winning which suggests laying them if they lead.
Sevilla look sturdy enough at home.
Note Sevilla are unbeaten at halftime at home with 5 0-0's so no surprise were this a 0-0 at halftime.

15:15 - Barcelona v Getafe - 1.14 Barcelona

2 consecutive 6-0 home wins in head to heads.

Barcelona (1st)

Unbeaten.
Great trading side - see Alaves, Sociedad and a recent comeback v Espanyol.
Scored in every match.
Scored 2+ goals in their last 10 at home.
Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.

Getafe (11th)

3 consecutive draws.
Recent 2-0 loss to Atl Madrid should be the tempate for today.
No win in 8 away, conceding in their last 9 away.
5 0-0's at halftime away.
1-2 and 2-0 losses v top 2.
9 of 12 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

All things being equal this should be an easy win for Barcelona, something like a 2-0. The market expects 3/4 goals from them.
Getafe may keep this tight so a 0-0 at halftime would not surprise.

17:30 - Celta Vigo v Espanyol - 1.9 Celta Vigo

2-2 and 2-1 Espanyol in the last 2 head to heads.

Celta Vigo (8th)

Only 1 loss in 6 matches.
Failed to score in only 2 matches.
No 0-0.
No 0-0 at halftime at home.
Only played one of the bottom 5 at home.
11 of 16 goals scored at home came 1st half.

Espanyol (15th)

Scored in their last 4 away.
Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
Only 1 away win v bottom of the league.

Conclusions

Celta should be confident of getting a positive result today. Based more on Espanyol's winless record away.
Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

19:45 - Valencia v Levante - 1.5 Valencia

1-0 Levante and 1-1 in the last 2 head to heads.

Valencia (3rd)

All 6 defeats have come within the last 9 matches.
3 consecutive defeats.
Failed to score in only 4 matches.
Conceded in their last 10 matches.
100% wins v 6th and lower at home.

Levante (17th)

Only 3 wins.
No win in 10 and in 5 away.
5 0-0's at halftime away.
No win v top 7 away but 2 losses and 3 draws.

Conclusions

The poor losing run for Valencia needs a context. Simply, v 6th and lower at home, they have a 100% win record.
Levante did keep them to a 1-1 and you'd think that is best case Levante today.
A 0-0 at halftime would not surprise.

ITALIAN SERIA A

14:00 - Inter v Bologna - 1.48 Inter

0-1 Inter and 1-1 last 2 head to heads.

Inter (4th)

5 consecutive draws and 4 consecutive 1-1 draws.
Failed to score in only 4 matches.
No win in 8 and in 4 at home.
Only 2 defeats, one at home.
4 clean sheet wins and a 1-1 at home v 11th and lower.
8 of 10 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Bologna (12th)

6 defeats in 8.
No draw in 11 away.
Conceded 2+ goals in their last 5 away.
All defeats away v top 11.

Conclusions

An opportunity for Inter to end their draw sequence as Bologna have not had a draw in 11 away.
If Bologna are conceding 2 goals away then Inter need to step up and score more than their 1 a game recently.
We may see a tight first half.

14:00 - Sampdoria v Verona - 1.53 Sampdoria

0-1 Verona and 0-0 in the last 2 head to heads.

Sampdoria (6th)

Nice run of only 1 loss in 6, albeit lost to Benevento!!
Unbeaten in 4 at home, includes 2 1-1's v Torino and Roma.
Failed to score in only 4 matches.
No 0-0 at home.
5 0-0's at halftime at home.
5-0, 2-0, 2-1 v bottom 4 at home.

Verona (19th)

5 losses and a coupon-busting 1-4 spanking of Fiorentina recently.
Failed to score in 4 of their last 6 matches.
Only 1 0-0 away.
Not beaten top 6. Only played 4 of the top 10 away, and 2+ goal losses to nil.

Conclusions

Sampdoria should be eyeing a 2+ goal win, perhaps to nil, today.
Verona turned up, and how!, against Fiorentina. Our assumption is that this emphatic win was more to do with Fiorentina's shortcomings than some Verona resurrection.
Note the 5 0-0's at halftime at home Sampdoria. Quite a high %. I would look at 2-0, 3-0 3-1 2nd half were that the case today.

14:00 - Torino v Udinese - 1.89 Torino

2-2, 2-2, 2-3 Torino in the last 3 head to heads.

Torino (10th)

Only 4 defeats.
2 consecutive home wins.
2 losses at home v top 5.
Only 2 wins in 10 matches v top 9 includes a 2-3 v Udinese. 5 draws.
9 goals scored at home between 31st-45th minutes.

Udinese (9th)

Only 1 loss in 10 matches was v Lazio away.
Failed to score in only 3 matches.
No 0-0.
Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
All bar one of the 5 away defeats came v top 11 teams.
11 of 16 goals conceded away came 1st half.

Conclusions

I could imagine both teams scoring today. For old time's sake, a 2-2 pre match back?
Udinese are in good form under new manager. Torino are in fine fettle but only 10th because they have drawn too many matches.
Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. Slight favour towards Torino given Udinese's losses away have tended to be v top 11 teams (they did score in a few of those).

19:45 - Roma v Benevento - 1.18 Roma

No formal research here. Roma are a Champions League side but do not play this week.
Much like Benevento's loss to Napoli last weekend, this looks an obvious call here.
Poor form of late for Roma needs a context. All defeats have come v top 8 sides.
Benevento have a 100% loss record away and have tended to concede 2 goals at least v top 7 teams.
Expect a home win, hope Benevento produce an apparent shock in-play!

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 - Stuttgart v Mgladbach - 2.6 Stuttgart

3 consecutive Mgladbach wins in head to heads.

Stuttgart (14th)

Only 1 win in 9 matches.
Only 5 clean sheets.
No draw in 7 at home.
Did beat Dortmund at home but failed to score at home c 7th and higher.

Mgladbach (10th)

Only 2 wins in 8 matches came at home.
4 consecutive away defeats.
Conceded last 6 away.
No 0-0.
No 0-0 at halftime away.
Opponents scored first away in 8/10 away and led at halftime 7/10 away.

Conclusions

The odds suggest a tight match where the market has not take sides.
2 sides in recent poor winless form.2 sides conceding recently.
Lay any late 0-0.
Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on Mgladbach.

17:00 - Werder Bremen v Wolfsburg - 2.06 Werder Bremen

2-1 Werder, 1-2 Werder and 1-1 last 3 head to heads.

Werder Bremen (15th)

All wins under new manager.
Unbeaten in 5 at home under new manager albeit 3 consecutive draws now.
Unbeaten home and away v 11th and lower but 7 draws (4 were 0-0) and a single 1-0 win.

Wolfsburg (13th)

Only 5 defeats but 12 draws.
1-1-0-0-0-0-1 goals scored recently away from home.
Not beaten any team below them home or away albeit 4 draws, 2 1-0 losses away.

Conclusions

A hint that Werder might get something today given their transformation under new management.
Not a match I want to prioritise really as the draw looks to be in play, indeed so does 0-0.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

11:30 - Ajax v Twente - 1.16 Ajax

3-0 Ajax and 3-3 in the last 2 head to heads.
In Twente's hey-day they would never be such clear-cut outsiders.

Ajax (2nd)

Been an excellent trading team particularly in this way. Last 2 matches their opponents have scored first and early. Ajax ended up winning the first half. Take note!!
Failed to score in only one match.
6 consecutive home wins.
Scored in their last 11 at home.
Scored 2+ goals in their last 6 at home.
3+ goals scored in wins at home v 12th and lower.
23 of 31 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Twente (17th)

3 consecutive defeats.
Only 4 wins.
Only 3 clean sheets.
6 0-0's at halftime away.
2+ goals conceded in defeats away v top 5.
13 of 18 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

The form points to 2, maybe 3 or more goals from Ajax in a win where they may concede (they have conceded in all bar 1 win at home v 12th and lower).
I would go for a goal before halftime but 6 0-0's at halftime away for Twente is a high %.
Please note the rather lucrative Ajax habit of conceding first 10 mins, then coming back and leading at halftime! Let's hope this happens today.

13:30 - Vitesse v Feyenoord - 2.06 Feyenoord

0-2 and 1-0 Feyenoord in the last 2 head to heads.

Vitesse (7th)

Failed to score in only 3 matches.
Only 2 losses in 8 came away.
No defeat in 5 at home.
Scored in their last 4 at home.
Only 1 0-0 at home.
Only lost at home to top 3.
Not beaten top 8 at home so draws a possibility.

Feyenoord (4th)

Only 2 losses in 13 matches came within the last 3 away matches.
No 0-0 away.
Only 1 away win v top 10.
14 of 22 goals scored away came 1st half.

Conclusions

I would lay Feyenoord if they scored first today. Vitesse have failed to score in only 3 matches and Feyenoord on their recent travels have been poor and unable to score that 2nd goal.