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ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

13:30 - Arsenal v Watford - 1.54 Arsenal

  • 2 consecutive 2-1 wins.....for Watford in head to heads.

Arsenal (6th)

  • 3 consecutive defeats. 4 of the last 5 defeats came away.
  • Conceded in their last 11 matches.
  • No home 0-0.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Only 2 losses at home came v top 2.
  • Scored 2+ goals in all bar 1 match outside the top 2.

Watford (9th)

  • Last 3 wins came at home.
  • No win in 7 away.
  • Failed to score in their last 3 away.
  • Only 1 0-0 away.
  • All defeats away v top 11.

Conclusions

  • Will Arsenal concede...again? They are far better at home and Arsene will be breathing a sigh of relief here.
  • Watford have a dire away record v top 11 but it would take a very brave punter to be confident in Arsenal.
  • Home form though to see them through?

16:00 - Bournemouth v Tottenham - 1.55 Tottenham

  • 1-0 Tottenham earlier this season.

Bournemouth (12th)

  • Scored and conceded in 9 of their last 10 matches.
  • Scored 2+ goals in their last 5 home matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • All defeats v top 4 this season.
  • 70% of goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Tottenham (4th)

  • 8 wins and 3 draws last 11 matches.
  • 6 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Scored in their last 17 matches.
  • No 0-0 away.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 9th and lower.
  • 8 goals scored away last 15 mins of matches.

Conclusions

  • On form Bournemouth lose to top 4 teams. They are in a rich vein of goalscoring form at home but contextually that does not occur v top 4.
  • Tottenham are expected to score so note that if 0-0 or a Bournemouth lead.
  • Tottenham are late goal scorers away too so note that if a draw or loss come the 75th minute.

ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

14:30 - Nottm Forest v Derby - 2.5 Derby

  • 2-2 and 2-0 Derby in the last 2 head to heads.

Nottm Forest (15th)

  • Unbeaten in 5 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 9 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime at home (16.7%).
  • All defeats at home v top 4.

Derby County (5th)

  • Only 2 losses in 17 matches.
  • 6 draws in the last 9 matches.
  • Only 3 0-0's at halftime away (16.7%).
  • Only 1 away loss v 10th and lower.

Conclusions

  • As the odds suggest a cogent argument can be made for both sides. Forest only losing to top 4 and Derby only 1 loss away v 10th and lower.
  • For me though, I will favour Derby today given they are 5th and have only 2 losses in 17 matches.
  • Take a chance and lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market, given 83.3% of matches tend to see a goal before halftime.

SPANISH LA LIGA

11:00 - Espanyol v Sociedad - 1.7 Espanyol

  • 1-2 Sociedad and 1-1 last 2 head to heads.

Espanyol (15th)

  • 5 draws and a 1-0 win v Real Madrid in the last 6 matches.
  • Only 1 loss in 6 at home.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Only 1 loss v 7th and lower at home.

Sociedad (12th)

  • Only 4 wins in 16 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • No win in 9 away.
  • Only 1 win away v 14th and higher.
  • 7 goals scored away last 15 mins of matches.

Conclusions

  • Espanyol not to lose looks the angle here given their strong home form and Sociedad's single win v 14th and higher away.

15:15 - Atletico Madrid v Celta Vigo - 1.41 Atl Madrid

  • Atl Madrid tend to win head to heads.

Atl Madrid (2nd)

  • Only 2 defeat, both away and both 1-0. Barcelona won last match.
  • 7 wins in 8 at home.
  • 12 clean sheets in the last 17 matches.
  • 8 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Not conceded a 2nd goal in a home match.
  • 76% of goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Celta Vigo (9th)

  • 3 consecutive away defeats.
  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • No 0-0.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • 2-2 v 1st, 2-1 v 4th and 2-1 v 5th away.

Conclusions

  • No surprise to see a 0-0 at halftime and if so, I would expect Atl Madrid to score 2nd half.
  • I would be with Atl Madrid today even if Celta score first.

ITALIAN SERIA A

11:30 - Fiorentina v Benevento - 1.39 Fiorentina

  • 0-3 Fiorentina earlier this season.
  • Quick research here.
  • 100% defeats away for Benevento. Their sporadic wins occur at home and against fellow relegation threatened sides.
  • Fiorentina should target 2/3 goals today. They did lose shockingly 1-4 v Hellas Verona but a win is expected today.

14:00 - Juventus v Udinese - 1.25 Juventus

  • 2-6 Juventus last head to head.

Juventus (2nd)

  • 10 consecutive wins.
  • 7 consecutive clean sheets, 5 at home.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime at home (25%).
  • 100% wins at home v 9th and lower.

Udinese (11th)

  • 3 consecutive defeats includes against Torino and Roma and that suggests Juventus is a step too far.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • No 0-0.
  • 6 losses and a win away v top 10.
  • 65% of goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Superb Champions League win for Juventus. Will that cloud their performance today? It was emotionally draining.
  • Strictly on form, Udinese may score but lose as they tend to v top 10 teams.
  • Juve are highly likely to score first and negate any trading angle.

14:00 - Cagliari v Lazio - 1.69 Lazio

Cagliari (15th)

  • Only 2 wins in 13 matches.
  • Only 1 win in 7 at home.
  • Only 2 clean sheets at home.
  • All defeats v top 5.
  • Not beaten a side above them in the league at home.

Lazio (4th)

  • Only 5 under 2.5 goals matches all season.
  • Scored in all bar 3 all season.
  • Failed to score only 1 away.
  • 100% wins v 12th and lower away.

Conclusions

  • Lazio should be scoring 2/3 goals today and eyeing a win. 100% wins v 12th and lower away. Only 2 wins in 13 Cagliari suggests they should not land a blow.

14:00 - Bologna v Atalanta - 2 Atalanta

  • 4 consecutive Atalanta wins.

Bologna (12th)

  • 3 wins in 4 at home.
  • No draw in 12.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • No 0-0.
  • Only 1 win home and away v teams above them.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals at home.

Atalanta (8th)

  • Only 2 losses in 12.
  • No defeat in 6 away.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime away (25%).
  • Only 1 away defeat v 7th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late draw.
  • Atalanta have the form to side with here. Both teams may score but worst case Atalanta seems to be 1-1 v 7th and lower.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

17:00 - Dortmund v Eintracht Frankfurt - 1.67 Dortmund

  • 2-2 last head to head.

Dortmund (4th)

  • Unbeaten in 10.
  • 2 consecutive 1-1 draws.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Not beaten top 6 home and away scoring and conceding in all.
  • Scored and conceded all matches v top 8.

Frankfurt (5th)

  • 5 wins in 7, the 2 defeats coming away.
  • Conceded in their last 9 away.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Not played the top 4 away yet.
  • Failed to win away v 6th-8th.
  • 71% of goals scored away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • I was going to say that Dortmund could be vulnerable today. They have not beaten top 6  but we see Frankfurt are yet to play top 4 and they did not beat 6th-8th away.
  • Both teams should score on form and lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • The value is in laying a Dortmund lead particularly a single goal lead late on.

FRENCH LIGUE 1

16:00 - Lyon v Caen - 1.41 Lyon

  • 3-2 Caen and 1-2 Lyon in the last 2 head to heads.

Lyon (4th)

  • 3 losses and 3 draws in the last 6 matches. 3 consecutive score draws.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 7 matches and last 4 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 2 home losses v 5th and 19th.
  • Draws at home v 6th, 9th, 10th, 13th, 14th.

Caen (12th)

  • Only 3 away wins.
  • Only 2 away wins v teams 12th and higher v 6th and 9th.
  • All defeats away v top 5.

Conclusions

  • Caen should not be winning today. Lyon are conceding and drawing v top 14 but should score 2 goals at least and that should be enough.
  • 2-1 2-2 potential scorelines.

20:00 - Toulouse v Marseille - 1.86 Marseille

  • 2-0 Marseille last head to head.

Toulouse (17th)

  • 3 consecutive draws.
  • Not beaten top 5.
  • 3 both teams scoring  at home in 4 v top 5.

Marseille (3rd)

  • Only 4 defeats.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • No away 0-0.
  • Only lost to top 4 away.
  • 100% wins v 16th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Expectation is for Marseille to win today. Both teams could score as Toulouse show v top 5 but Toulouse should not win.
  • Lay any late 0-0.