Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

Another set of matches which are hard to read. We see 2nd leg World Cup qualifiers. Northern Ireland must score first. Croatia must avoid a 3-0 defeat. The ATP Tour Finals see easy enough trading angles. I think Federer is layable if he wins the first set. Zverev and Cilic the market tells us should be a 3-setter. If I am online I will live chat. But the ideal with a live chat is for us to have numerous opportunities all at once, rather than these dribs and drabs.

17:00 - Switzerland v Northern Ireland - 1.46 Switzerland

  • Now we have something to work with. The first leg was a tight 0-0 and then that was broken by a contentious penalty awarded to the Swiss.
  • They bring a 1-0 lead into this home tie.
  • Quite simply Northern Ireland must match the Swiss and score first.
  • 6 consecutive wins at home for the Swiss but 3 of those wins were v the likes of Faroe Islands, latvia and Andorra.
  • Northern Ireland away only beat Azerbaijan and San Marino.
  • Is 0-0 in play again as it was in the first leg? Or with Northern Ireland need ensure an earlier breakthrough?
  • Very hard to call as tactics are everything.

19:45 - Greece v Croatia - 2.3 Croatia

  • Tactics will play a huge part here too. It is 4-1 Croatia from the first leg which gives them breathing space against a Greek side who only scored more than 2 goals a game against the likes of Gibraltar and Cyprus.
  • Croatia need only avoid a 3-0 defeat today.
  • Croatia are the better side, have the better attacking force but the need to 'go for it' is not there today. That makes this a toughie to read.

LEAGUE ONE

14:30 - AFC Wimbledon v Peterborough - 2.66 AFC

  • 0-1 Wimbledon and 0-0 in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 22nd v 9th in League One, a league I tend not to trade but during this International Break, and with 15 games played, we may get a trading angle.

AFC Wimbledon

  • Only 4 wins.
  • Failed to score in 10 matches this season.
  • 2 consecutive 1-0 defeats.
  • Only 2 over 2.5 goals matches.
  • Beat 7th 3-1 but that is only 1 of 2 wins in 11 matches v top 16 teams.
  • Only 1 draw v top 19 sides.

Peterborough

  • Only 1 win in 6 matches came last match.
  • No win in 5 away matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Not played bottom 5 yet and AFC are 22nd in the league.
  • 10 of 13 goals scored away came 2nd half.7 of 9 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Ahh, a 2.66 favourite. ON league position, we are with Peterborough today but they have no win in 5 matches.
  • Peterborough are a strong scorer and conceder 2nd half so on that basis, I would take on any 0-0 2nd half.
  • Lay any late draw based on AFC tending to avoid them v top 19 sides.

ATP Tour Finals LONDON

Roger Federer v Jack Sock - 1.09 Roger Federer

  • 2nd v 9th in the World. Jack Sock has done superbly to break the top 10.
  • It has been 3 consecutive 2-0 set wins for Roger in head to heads, latterly in 2 semi-finals and one in 2017.
  • On the sole indoor hard head to head, Roger won 2-0 (indoor hard today).
  • Jack Sock looks to me like a slogger. He won Paris Masters recently, but there were 3 3-set matches, and in his first 3 matches there were 4 tie-breaker sets.
  • Jack did manage to take Roger to a 2nd set tie breaker last time these 2 met.
  • Prior to Paris, the Sock form smelled bad on hard surfaces.
  • Federer continues to confound. Final, quarter final (US Open), Tournament Win, and Tournament win in his last 4 tournaments. Del Potro beat him in the US Open, and he beat Del Potro in the last 2 Tournaments.
  • Roger's last 3 3-set matches saw him lose the first set. We can only wish for that today as it is a clear trading angle in.
  • Watch for a tight second set. I would be happy to lay Federer if he wins the 1st set given that Sock took him to a tie breaker earlier this year 2nd set.

Alexander Zverev v Marin Cilic - 1.96 Zverev

  • The market cannot split these 2 teams. One has to be odds-on simply to cover the over-round.
  • This immediately marks this as a potential 2-1 scoreline. You could back 2-1 each player pre match at 4.5 and 4.4 and profit should this go the distance.
  • Alternately, lay the first set winner.
  • 3rd v 5th in the World and that is what we see this ATP Tour Finals, the World's Best.
  • It's 3-1 Zverev in the 4 head to heads and a current 3-0 Zverev.
  • The last 2 matches have gone 3 sets which is what we hope for today.
  • A tie breaker is highly likely today.
  • Zverev has had a poor run coming into this tournament.
  • 2nd round US Open, quarter finals Shenzen (only 2 matches played), semi finals in Beijing, 2 round in Shanghai (walk over first round), quarters in Vienna (3 matches played) and out first round Paris Masters.
  • In contrast, Cilic has 3 consecutive semi-final places and a quarter final place last 4 tournaments.
  • This does look like a 3-setter waiting to happen. I would have said, before looking at the form, that Zverev was the most vulnerable today but then in head to heads, he consistently has Cilic's number.
  • Laying the first set winner will give us a possibility of a trade here.