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See you at 13:30 for a live chat on Twitter @drtclub. Italy and Germany join us next weekend. I quite fancy the boys from Tottingham today against a Newcastle quiet in the transfer market. Monaco and PSG look reliable. Barcelona and Real Madrid has some amazing head to head patterns. Read those below. A decent set of matches includes Italian Cup and Italian version of the Charity Shield and German Cup.
See you 13:30.

ENGLISH PREMIERSHIP

13:30 - Newcastle v Tottenham - 1.73 Tottenham

  • No head to head last year.
  • HT/FT: Spurs have had W/W double results in 6/9 away matches against promoted teams and they have won 8/9 such matches.
  • Promoted teams have had -2.5 goals in 53% of home matches against top-six teams since 2012-13.
  • Tottenham scored more goals than anyone else last season. Only 5 clean sheets away last season for Spurs enough to give Newcastle a sniff?

16:00 - Man Utd v West Ham - 1.34 Man Utd

  • Man Utd has tended to win head to heads.
  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 9/12 West Ham away matches and +3.5 goals in 6/10 West Ham away matches against top-six teams.
  • Man Utd have scored first in 8/11 home matches against middle-third teams.
  • Drawitis last season to be cured by Mourinho this season? 25 under 2.5 goals matches last season for United.
  • Lukaku the key addition at United.
  • 2 new forwards for the Hammers and Joe Hart in goal. None too shabby.

FRENCH LIGUE 1

14:00 - Strasbourg v Lille - 1.14 Lille

  • No previous head to heads.
  • -2.5 goals: Promoted teams have had -2.5 goals in 57% of home matches against middle-third teams since 2012-13.
  • There have been -2.5 goals in 10/15 Lille away matches.
  • Lille have scored first in 6/9 away matches against promoted teams.
  • Lille won 3-0 in their opener and Strasbourg lost 4-0 in their opener. The market expects trouble ahead for Strasbourg this season.

16:00 - Dijon v Monaco - 1.56 Monaco

  • Draw, Monaco, Draw, Monaco in the last 4 head to heads.
  • Monaco have won the first half in 9/12 away matches and they have scored first in 14/16 away matches.
  • Dijon have drawn 4/7 home matches against top-six teams.
  • 3 2nd half goals did for Dijon in their opener. They may show first half resilience on that basis?
  • Monaco beat Toulouse 3-2.

20:00 - Guingamp v Paris St-G - 1.26 PSG

  • 1st goal: Guingamp have conceded first in 6/8 home matches against top-six teams while Paris St-G have won 8/8 away matches against middle-third teams.
  • Paris St-G have had W/W double results in 8/9 away matches against middle-third teams.
  • 1-3 Guingamp in their opener with Metz. PSG a rather routine 2-0 win v Amiens.
  • Guingamp won the last home head to head v PSG.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

11:30 - Zwolle v Roda JC - 1.8 Zwolle

  • 0-0 and 2-1 Roda in the last 2 head to heads.
  • 1st goal: Zwolle have scored first in 11/17 home matches against bottom-six teams while Roda JC have lost 5/8 away matches against bottom-six teams.
  • Roda JC have had L/L double results in 5/8 away matches against bottom-six teams.
  • 14th for Zwolle last season. Poor. They only lost one match v bottom 7 last season at home.
  • Roda finished 2nd bottom last season. They were actually unbeaten v 12th-15th home and away, albeit a couple of 0-0's.
  • 2 teams who seem like they will struggle this season.

13:30 - Feyenoord v Twente - 1.22 Feyenoord

  • 5 consecutive Feyenoord wins in head to head, last 2 were 2-0.
  • Match outcome: Feyenoord have won 11/12 home matches against top half non-Big Two teams while Twente have lost 11/12 away matches against top-six teams.
  • Twente have lost by two or more goals in 11/13 away matches against top-six teams.
  • Champions Last season, Feyenoord were unbeaten at home.and only lost one match home and away v the top 11.
  • Away from home, Twente failed to beat any top 6 side, conceding 2-3-1-3-3-2 goals.

13:30 - Willem II v Excelsior - 2.00 Willem II

  • 0-0, 1-1 and 0-2 Willem II in the last 3 head to heads.
  • 1st goal: Willem II have scored first in 8/11 home matches against middle-third teams while Excelsior have conceded first in 10/12 away matches against bottom-six teams.
  • Excelsior have lost by two or more goals in 5/9 away matches against bottom-six teams.
  • only 3 defeats for Willem II at home last season v 6th and lower (Excelsior were 12th).
  • Only 3 away wins for Excelsior last season.

15:45 - Groningen v Heerenveen - 2.20 Groningen

  • 0-3 Heerenveen and 0-0 in the last 2 head to heads.
  • 1st goal: Groningen have scored first in 10/10 home matches while Heerenveen have lost 7/10 away matches against top half non-Big Two teams.
  • Heerenveen have lost by two or more goals in 5/10 away matches against top half non-Big Two teams.
  • Groningen beat only one top 10 team at home last season (Heerenveen were 9th last season).
  • Only 4 wins away for Heerenveen last season. Have they cured their travel troubles? When they did win last season, they scored 3 goals!!

ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

13:30 - Norwich v Sunderland - 1.87 Norwich

  • Both recent Premiership sides.
  • Both sides had 1-1 draws in their openers. This could be a rather simplistic angle. Lay any late 1-1 draw?
  • 1st half outcome: Norwich have won the first half in 10/12 home matches and they have had W/W double results in 8/12 home matches.
  • Relegated teams have had -2.5 goals in 54% of away matches against top-half teams since 2012-13.

SPANISH SUPER CUP

21:00 - Barcelona v Real Madrid - 2.04 Barcelona

  • Time to wheel out the amazing head to head stats.
  • In 21 of the last 22 matches, both teams scored.
  • 2 consecutive 2-3 Barcelona head to head wins.
  • In 20 of the last 22 matches, at least one team has scored at least 2 goals .
  • We have done this in the past. Lay any 2-0/0-2 leader. Remember last season Real Madrid scored in every match.
  • One slight niggle. Bye Bye Neymar for Barcelona.

PORTUGEUSE PRIMERA LIGA

16:00 - Pacos Ferreira v Aves - 2.3 Pacos

  • Ferreira have won 6/10 home matches against promoted teams while promoted teams have lost 56% of away matches against middle-third teams since 2012-13.
  • Promoted teams have conceded first in 56% of away matches against middle-third teams since 2012-13.
  • Aves are newly promoted.
  • Pacos only lost 3 home matches last season. They did only draw v bottom 3 at home. The assumption (perhaps wrongly) is that Aves are more likely to be bottom 1/3rd than upper 1/3rd).

18:00 - Braga v Portimonense - 1.6 Braga

  • These 2 have not met since 2012 which tells me Portimonense are newly promoted.
  • Braga have won 10/11 home matches against promoted teams while promoted teams have lost 56% of away matches against top-six teams since 2012-13.
  • Braga have scored first in 10/10 home matches against promoted teams.
  • Braga was undefeated at home outside of the top 4 this season.
  • Portimonense is an unknown in this better league.
  • Portimonense came from behind to win their opener. Braga had a tough opener v Benfica and lost.

20:15 - Tondela v Porto - 1.28 Porto

  • 0-0 and 4-0 Porto in the last 2 head to heads.
  • Match outcome: Tondela have lost 5/6 home matches against Big Three teams while FC Porto have won 14/19 away matches against bottom-six teams.
  • FC Porto have scored first in 14/19 away matches against bottom-six teams.
  • 1-1 Tondela in their opener. 4-0 Porto in their opener.
  • 3rd bottom v 2nd last season. Expectation is for Tondela struggles.
  • Tondela could not beat a top 3 team last season.
  • Porto only lost 2 matches last season.

SWEDISH ALLSVENSKAN

14:00 - AIK v AFC Utd - 1.3 AIK

  • 1-3 AIK in the last head to head.
  • This is 3rd v 16th.

AIK

  • 2 losses in 3 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home and unbeaten at halftime at home.
  • Not played bottom 2 at home.
  • Have a really poor scoring record at home. Scored 2 goals only once at home. Failed to score at home v 13th and 14th.

AFC

  • Only 1 win.
  • 8 consecutive away defeats.
  • Conceded in each of their last 10 away.
  • Lost 1-0 v 2nd and 5th away.

Conclusions

  • AIK are strong favourites because AFC are so poor.
  • I have seen better 1.3 shots. AIK has scored 2 goals only once in a match.
  • AFC really should not be winning.