Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

Very much a business-end of the season feel today as a number of leagues have a full program of matches. 13:30 looks a good enough starting point for the live chats to bring in the Dutch and Italians. See you here at 13:30.

11:30 - Inter v Sassuolo - 1.47 Inter

  • 0-1 Inter in the last head to head.
  • This is 7th v 14th in Italian Seria A.
  • 3 matches remain this season.
  • Inter are strong favourites today without really anything to work with.
  • 5 losses and 2 2-2 draws for Inter in their last 7 matches.
  • 2 consecutive 1-0 losses for Inter Milan.
  • In 12 of their last 14 matches, Inter have seen a goal before halftime.
  • No 0-0 for Inter this season.
  • Only 4 defeats at home for Inter.
  • Inter scored and conceded at home v 5th-15th inclusive.
  • Both teams have scored in Sassuolo's last 7 matches.
  • Sassuolo are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
  • Both teams have scored in 12 of Sassuolo's last 14 away matches.
  • Sassuolo scored and conceded away v top 15 teams.
  • No win for Sassuolo home or away v top 9.
  • Sassuolo have not lost to nil away.

Conclusions

  • The market has sided with a side with 5 losses and 2 2-2 draws in their last 7 matches.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Both teams could score today.
  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • I am not sure why Inter are so short and would look for the in-play stats to confirm the market.

12:00 - Huddersfield v Sheff Wed - 2.52 Huddersfield

  • This is the 2nd English Championship play-off semi final, held over 2 legs.
  • Traditionally the first legs are cagey affairs. The second legs tend to be the turn of over 2.5 goals.
  • Against Sheffield Wednesday this season, Huddersfield lost both matches.0-1 at home.
  • They did not have a draw at home v top 18.
  • Sheffield Wednesday this season away from home never managed to score 2 goals in an away match v top 14 sides.
  • Their wins away v Newcastle and Huddersfield were therefore 0-1.
  • It is difficult to make the leap though from season-long form to a set of 2 matches which could see Premiership football.
  • Yesterday's semi-final saw the first goal come 2nd half and we profited in the live chat from backing 0-0 and laying off at halftime. Same again today?

12:00 - C Palace v Hull - 2.16 Palace

  • 3-3 the last time these 2 met. Hull led twice, Palace led once.
  • This is 16th v 18th in the Premiership. No full research necessary a this is a relegation six pointer.
  • 2 matches remain for each team. This is Palace's last home match. Their last match is against Man Utd.
  • Hull's last match is against Tottenham. This makes this match (both teams will fancy it) more vital to win.
  • Palace have failed to score in their last 3 matches, all losses and 2 at home.And it was all going so well under Big Sam.
  • A win for Palace guarantees safety.
  • This was a Palace who, preceding their 2 home defeats without scoring, actually scored 3 against Arsenal and 2 against Leicester.
  • No 0-0 this season for Palace.
  • Away from home Palace have been full of goals against the bottom 3, but 1-0 at home v bottom 2.
  • At home, the 60th minute sees Palace score most of their goals. Is this a key time for the manager to make changes?
  • Palace meet a Hull side who are solid at home but have no win in 17 away matches.
  • Hull have only scored 2 goals in an away match once - that was v Swansea, fellow strugglers. They failed to score away v the bottom 2.
  • 1-1-0-1-3 goals conceded v bottom 14 away for Hull so they are adept at keeping it tight, but not following up with the goals to gain an advantage from the stingy defence.
  • 27 of 41 goals conceded away by Hull came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Oh boy, it was looking so good for Palace but they have failed to score in their last 3 and last 2 at home. Naturally that must change today. They play a Hull side with no win away in 17 but whose only win was v Swansea.
  • Do I have a trading angle in? It's a relegation six pointer so not really. I would lay any late 0-0 and think 60th minute + given Hull are huge 2nd half conceders away and Palace have scored most goals at home 60th-75th minute.

13:30 - Go Ahead Eagles v Sparta Rotterdam - 1.71 Sparta

  • THIS IS SPARTA. Sparta are hoping they can field the full 300 in their must win match v relegated Go Ahead Eagles.
  • Sparta simply must win.
  • 1-0 Sparta the last time these 2 met.
  • 5 consecutive defeats for Go Ahead so Sparta meeting them at the right time. Sparta have 5 consecutive defeats end with a win last match. That win against Twente shows some spirit as it puts them in the position they are in now with 3 points possibly seeing survival.
  • Go Ahead have conceded in their last 21 matches.
  • Go Ahead no 0-0 this season.
  • Sparta have 3 wins to nil v bottom 2, 2-0 and 2 1-0 wins.

Conclusions

  • Hugely spirited Spartan 1-0 v Twente needs to be replicated here and they have the form v bottom 2 teams with 3 wins to nil.
  • I am with Sparta today. It may be a nervy affair and if you want to back 0-0 pre match, it might have legs.

13:30 - Willem II v Ajax - 1.27 Ajax

  • Willem II actually won the last head to head in the league.
  • This is 12th v 2nd in the Dutch Eredivisie.
  • Ajax are a point shy of PSV.
  • This is the last match of the season. MUST WIN for Ajax. We saw Feyenoord last week freeze in the headlights so Ajax must do their bit and let PSV win or draw or lose.
  • Only 3 defeats for Ajax all season, 1 was v Willem II.
  • Draw, Draw, Win, Loss for Ajax away recently, albeit the last match was v PSV.
  • Willem II have not scored in 4 of their last 6. How Ajax could do with that today.
  • No 0-0 for Ajax this season.

Conclusions

  • Quite simply a backed-into-the-corner MUST WIN for Ajax today against a team which beat them this season and playing a part of the league where they have had 2 1-1 draws away.
  • I think a score draw is worst case for Ajax today. They meet a Willem II blowing cold in front of goal.
  • Lay any late 0-0. I would take a chance and lay the 0-0 halftime score market. Why? A lead at halftime is psychologically important in a must win.

13:30 - Heerenveen v NEC Nijmegen - 1.53 Heerenveen

  • 2-1 NEC in the last head to head.
  • This is 8th v 17th in the Dutch Eredivisie.
  • This is simply a must win for NEC but the market is not sentimental.
  • 6 defeats and 2 wins in 8 matches for Heerenveen sees them in coasting mode it seems but still the market will not relent. 1.53!
  • Maybe they are looking at Heerenveen's home form. 3-0, 2-2, 1-2 loss v Feyenoord, 3-0, 1-0 and guess what? This is their final home match of the season.
  • Oh Lordy, NEC are in trouble.12 defeats in 14 matches NEC did win their last home match.
  • But 7 consecutive away defeats needs to end.

Conclusions

  • Another end of season humdinger. On form Heerenveen should do the winning here and send their support off happy. The Romantics want NEC to get their 3 points and survival.
  • Heerenveen though are in really good scoring form at home and that may be enough to consign NEC to relegation.

13:30 - Vitesse v Roda JC - 1.83 Vitesse

  • Vitesse have won the last 4 head to heads.
  • This is 6th v 15th in Dutch Eredivisie.
  • A win for Roda guarantees their survival.
  • Vitesse have nothing to play for.
  • 3 consecutive defeats for Vitesse see them coasting now. A hope from Roda that this is the case today.
  • Vitesse did lose their last match at home, albeit v Feyenoord but before that,3 consecutive home wins.
  • Vitesse have not had a 0-0 this season, or a draw in 14 matches.
  • Vitesse have a 100% win record at home to the bottom 3.
  • Roda are simply going to need a Vitesse under-performance. Only 1 away win for Roda and no win in 11 away.
  • 3 wins, a draw and a loss for Roda in their last 5 matches does offer a glimmer of hope.
  • Those wins came at home though.

Conclusions

  • Roda need Sparta and NEC to draw or lose in order to guarantee survival with a defeat.
  • A draw may see Roda through but then Sparta have the slightly better goal difference so if Sparta win and Roda draw, Sparta will stay up.
  • Roda need to hope the Vitesse of the last 3 matches (lost without scoring) turn up and not the Vitesse with a 100% win record at home v bottom 3 teams.
  • The market is not sentimental at all. It thinks Roda cannot do it.

13:30 - PSV v Zwolle - 1.2 PSV

  • 3-3-3-4 goals scored by PSV in recent head to heads.
  • This is 3rd v 13th in the Dutch Eredivisie.
  • This is the last match of the season. There is nothing for either side to play for.
  • A case of faith in the head to heads signalling a comfortable send off for PSV fans? This is a dead rubber.

13:30 - Feyenoord v Heracles - 1.2 Feyenoord

  • 0-1 Feyenoord the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 1st v 9th in the Dutch Eredivisie.
  • A simple equation. If Feyenoord win, they win the title but boy did they balls it up v Excelsior last match.
  • 10 consecutive home wins for Feyenoord and they must be wishing those Excelsior nerves away today. I remember a recent season where one of the teams needed a home win to win the title and ended up losing!
  • 16 without defeat at home for Feyenoord.
  • Feyenoord have scored 2+ goals in each of their last 6 home matches.
  • Feyenoord have not been behind at halftime at home this season.
  • Feyenoord have scored 2 goals at least in all bar 2 home matches.
  • Feyenoord have led at home in 13 of 16 matches at halftime.
  • Only 1 draw for Heracles since 6th November.
  • 3 wins in 4 now sees them ending the season well.
  • 2 consecutive away wins for Heracles.
  • Heracles have conceded in their last 12 away matches.
  • 3 defeats and a draw away for Heracles v the top 5.

Conclusions

  • I did say in last week's research that Feyenoord were layable at such short odds. Same case again today?
  • The nerves last week translated into loss. Are Feyenoord simply capable at home?
  • If form plays out we are unlikely to see a trade as Feyenoord do not lose at halftime and tend to score 2+ goals.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market as long as those nerves do not show. Feyenoord have led in 13/16 at home at halftime.

14:00 - Cagliari v Empoli - 2.68 Empoli

  • A drift for Empoli from 2.32 earlier in the week.
  • 2-0 Empoli in the last head to head.
  • This is 13th v 17th in Italian Seria A.
  • 3 matches remain this season. Cagliari are safe from relegation and have little to play for.
  • Empoli are 4 points above the relegation zone. This is a gap made much more comfortable with 3 points today as that confirms Empoli's survival.
  • 2 consecutive home wins to nil for Cagliari is part of a run of 3 clean sheets in 4 home matches.
  • Cagliari have an excellent home record v 10th and lower, with 8 wins and a 1-1.
  • They did score and concede though in 7 of those matches.
  • 76% over 2.5 goals for Cagliari at home is a stat worth remembering.
  • Empoli are going for this! 3 wins in 4 matches, the last 2 were 1-2 v solid opponents Fiorentina and AC Milan.
  • Both teams have now scored in the last 5 Empoli matches but a draw, those 3 wins and a loss is a great haul.
  • Empoli have conceded in their last 14 matches so a concern there that they MUST score 2 to be in with the chance of a win.
  • Empoli's recent wins are not the norm.12 matches away v teams above them in the league did they fail to score. I think we should take recent form over season long form.

Conclusions

  • Both teams to score has a chance today. We have 2 teams where a cogent argument can be made, hence the 2.68 odds for the favourite.
  • This is another match where 2-1/1-2 correct score is backable to hopefully trade out at 1-1. It worked yesterday in the Fiorentina match.
  • Empoli have banished their inability to score away with 2 1-2 wins. If it was just 1 win I would be less keen, but they have fight.
  • I do expect goals today and 0-0 is to be layed if 0-0 late on.

14:00 - Bologna v Pescara - 1.57 Bologna

  • Bologna won 0-3 the last time these 2 met and tended to remain unbeaten when they were both in Italian Seria B.
  • This is 15th v 20th in Italian Seria A.
  • Pescara are relegated. 3 matches remain this season. A top 10 is possible for Bologna but extremely unlikely.
  • Only 2 wins all season for Pescara.
  • Bologna have scored 4 goals in 2 of their last 3 at home so could punish the Pes.
  • No win in 16 away for Pescara, conceding in each of those.

Conclusions

  • 2nd last home match for Bologna. A dead rubber really. The reason the market is so sweet towards the home side is because the away side have only 2 wins all season.
  • If Bologna are up for this, they should score 3/4 goals today. You might want to speculate on 3-0, 3-1 and any other home score and hope Bologna are not dreaming of the Cote D'Azur and their icecreams.

14:00 - Crotone v Udinese - 1.97 Crotone

  • Another favourite on the drift. 1.73 Crotone earlier this season.
  • 2-0 Udinese the last time these 2 met.
  • 3 matches remain and 3 wins required for Crotone. Even if they win today, they are still 3rd bottom.Crotone really do need a favour off Genoa and Empoli.
  • Udinese are safe as houses and have little to play for.
  • Crotone are 18th in Italian Seria A.
  • 4 wins and 2 draws for Crotone. They are trying to wriggle out of it with a last flurry.
  • They scored and conceded in 5 of their 6 recent matches, seeing 3 2-1 wins, 2 1-1 draws and a 0-1 win away at Pescara.
  • With only 3 clean sheets all season Crotone need the 2-1 to get the win.
  • This is another match where we have to look at recent form rather than season long form. If we look at season long form we would be burying Crotone.
  • Udinese have nothing to play for. and they have only 1 win in 9 away matches with 2 recent heavy losses 0-3 and 0-4. A real wish from Crotone that Udinese continue in holiday mode.
  • Udinese do have a solid win only record v bottom 3, 1-3 away v the bottom 3.
  • 19 of Udinese's 27 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • They don't have present us with some puzzles at season end. Here we have a Udinese clearly comfortable in beating all of the bottom 3 with ease but recently with only 1 win in 9 away.
  • They meet a Crotone whose season-long form is dire, but they are unbeaten in 5, beating the likes of Inter Milan, drawing with AC Milan, beating Chievo and Sampdoria and Pescara. Solid stuff.
  • This is all about Udinese's attitude. Maintain holiday mode and they might not be able to replicate their 100% win record v bottom 3.
  • Both teams could score today and if Udinese score first, take a chance and lay them or back 1-3 as a saver and lay them!

14:00 - Palermo v Genoa - 1.67 Genoa

  • 4-0 Genoa and 3-4 Palermo in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 19th v 16th in Italian Seria A. Palermo are relegated.Genoa are 5 points clear of relegation. 3 matches remain. Win today and that should seal survival.
  • We saw yesterday in Germany that the must-wins put up a hell of a fight. We expect the same today in Italy.
  • A mini revival for Palermo with a good 2-0 win v Fiorentina then a 1-1 but will this revival end now fate is sealed?
  • Only 4 wins all season and one was v Genoa.
  • Only 2 home wins for Palermo so probability is not with them.
  • They have only scored 2 goals once at home so if leading must naturally be opposed.
  • 8 of 10 goals scored at home came 1st half.
  • Genoa are doing themselves no favours with only 2 wins since 18th December 2016.
  • They did beat Inter Milan at home latest and a hope they bring that momentum into this winnable match.
  • Genoa are yet to lead at halftime away.
  • Genoa have wins away v 15th, 17th and 18th and I am sure their manager will remind them of this today.
  • Opposite to Palermo, 10 of Genoa's 12 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • The ideal for the trader? Palermo score first half as they tend to do then struggle to score that 2nd. Genoa score 2nd half as they tend to do and push on.
  • I do think this is a winnable match for Genoa who have shown winning form away v bottom 5 sides. But trust a side with only 2 wins since 18th December? Well it did work in Germany as the strugglers battled.

14:00 - Torino v Napoli - 1.57 Napoli

  • 5-3 Napoli the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 9th v 3rd in Italian Seria A.
  • The title is still there for Napoli if Juventus are distracted enough by a Champions League final to consent to lose all of their remaining fixtures (ditto Roma).
  • 7th is the best Torino can get.
  • 5 score draws and 2 wins for Torino recently sees both teams score but Torino remain unbeaten.
  • Only 5 clean sheets for Torino and failing to score in only 5 matches lends itself well to both teams scoring.
  • Torino have scored in their last 15 at home.
  • They have scored and conceded in their last 14 matches.
  • Only Juventus have beaten Torino at home but whilst not losing they have 6 score draws in 8 matches v teams 2nd - 11th inclusive at home.
  • 17 of 23 goals conceded at home by Torino came 2nd half.
  • Napoli have only one defeat since 5th November 2016.
  • Napoli failed to score only 3 times.
  • 3 clean sheets in 5 matches for Napoli but they are sporadic.
  • No defeat in 11 away for Napoli.
  • Napoli scored in their last 13 away.
  • Napoli are unbeaten home and away v teams 6th and lower.
  • 13 of 18 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • This match may lend itself to a 2-2 correct score trade, backing 2-2 pre match. The Torino both teams to score pattern is too big to ignore BUT whilst not winning, they are score drawing.
  • Napoli will really be looking for the win, hence the hope they score 2 goals.
  • I must respect Torino's form but the likelihood is they score draw rather than replicate the 3-1 win at home v Roma.
  • I would lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. Both sides strong over 2.5 goals stats and it does not take a massive leap to expect at least one goal before halftime.

14:00 - Sampdoria v Chievo - 1.92 Sampdoria

  • 2-1 Chievo the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 10th v 12th in Italian Seria A.
  • 3 matches remain this season.
  • This is a dead rubber. With 3 matches remaining there is little for either side to play for.
  • And you can see it in their recent results!

14:15 - West Ham v Liverpool - 1.72 Liverpool

  • 2-2 the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 12th v 3rd in the English Premiership.
  • This is an exercise in 3rd place for Liverpool. West Ham's season is over. 42 points. Safe as 'ouses.
  • West Ham have kept 4 clean sheets in 5 matches all of a sudden. 1-0, 0-0, 1-0 at home includes a 0-0 v Everton and a 1-0 v Tottenham.
  • Where has all of this suddenly come from? Is Billy Bonds playing centre back with Phil Parkes in goal?
  • 3 consecutive 0-0's at halftime now for West Ham and that renewed defensive strength.
  • West Ham have only had 2 0-0's this season and they have come within that recent clean sheet run. They were not the norm all season.
  • Only 1 win for West Ham v top 9 was v Tottenham latest at home. So they are breaking stats patterns at will it seems!
  • 15 of their 19 goals have been scored 2nd half at home.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 for Liverpool so they can play at that game too.
  • 0-1 0-1 wins away for Liverpool. Where West Ham are doing the 1-0's at home, Liverpool are doing them away.
  • Liverpool have failed to score in only 5 matches but did fail to score last match.
  • It is v 9th and lower where Liverpool defeats have emerged this season.
  • But 5 wins, 2 defeats and a draw v 13th and lower away (West Ham are 12th).

Conclusions

  • West Ham have become unreadable and are breaking season long stats patterns such as 0-0 and beating a top 9 team. All very recently. They have 42 points now. Will that decrease their intensity today against a Liverpool seeking to guard 3rd spot.
  • 2 recent 1-0 wins West Ham at home plays 2 recent 0-1 wins away Liverpool.
  • It is tough to call. The market goes with the motivated side. Do you? If they can keep Everton and Tottenham from scoring, West Ham may frustrate Liverpool for a while. I would try and back 0-0 pre match as West Ham have had 3 consecutive 0-0's at halftime against decent opposition.

16:30 - Tottenham v Man Utd - 1.76 Tottenham

  • 1-0 Man Utd the last time these 2 met.
  • Tottenham are assured of 2nd spot.
  • Top 3 is still within United's grasp but firstly they must win this game in hand they have over the competition.
  • I am not going to research this match. I cannot get a trading angle on it. The market has spoken in Tottenham's favour. The Europa League Final is a way off yet and should not present a distraction to United.

19:00 - Real Madrid v Sevilla - 1.23 Real Madrid

  • 2-1 Sevilla last head to head.
  • This is 2nd v 4th in Spanish Primera Liga.
  • Same points but a game in hand over Barcelona for Real Madrid. Sevilla could go 3rd if they win their next 2 matches but Atl Madrid would have to lose their 2 matches.
  • Only 3 defeats all season for Real Madrid, and Sevilla was one of the victors.
  • Real Madrid have scored in every match.
  • Both teams have scored in 12 of Real's last 14 matches.
  • 2-2-4-1-4 goals before halftime in Real Madrid matches.
  • Only Barcelona has beaten Real MAdrid at home.
  • Draws though for Real Madrid v 3rd and 5th.
  • Real scored first in 15/18 at home.
  • Only 3 wins in 11 for Sevilla came at home.
  • Sevilla have lost away v Atl Madrid and Barcelona lately so they could have trouble today.
  • In all away defeats bar 1, Sevilla have conceded 3 goals at least.

Conclusions

  • Sevilla's recent losses away to Atl Madrid, Barcelona and Malaga suggests that they will struggle today against Real Madrid. The Champions League final is on 3rd June so will not distract Real Madrid.
  • If Real Madrid win today it is advantage them in the title race.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on Real's recent matches.
  • Remember Real Madrid do tend to score. A great stat to keep in mind and one we have profited in lately.

19:00 - Las Palmas v Barcelona - 1.11 Barcelona

  • Note this scoreline. Crvena Zveda (or Red Star Belgrade to you and me) were 1.15 shots yesterday. They went a goal down. I advised a 3-1, 3-2, any other home score play. They won 4-1.
  • This is what we expect of these teams at these odds.
  • 5-0 Barca the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 14th v 1st in Spanish la Liga.
  • Quite simply a must win for Barcelona as they top La Liga but Real Madrid are on the same points and have a game in hand.
  • Las Palmas have conceded 5-3-2-5-1 goals this season v the top 3 and amazingly drew 2-2 and 3-3 with real Madrid.
  • Las Palmas remain in La Liga for another year so may not show the hunger that, say, a relegation battle would.
  • Barcelona have lost away to 12th, 13th, and drawn with 15th and play......14th today.
  • 5 consecutive wins now for Barcelona.

Conclusions

  • The market expects 3+ goals today. We expect, at these odds, a goal before halftime. Let's hope Barca do a Crvena and concede first, then we can plunder the correct score market.
  • 3-3-7-3-4 scored by Barcelona last 5 matches is perfectly in keeping with the 1.11 odds.

19:00 - Athletic Bilbao v Leganes - 1.5 Ath Bilbao

  • This to me has the hint of a dead rubber. Ath Bilbao are safe in 6th and only 5th place is within their grasp.
  • Leganes are 6 points above the relegation zone. BUT they have a 12 goal positive goal difference to Sporting Gijon so Sporting would have to win their 2 remaining matches (ideally) 6-0 and Leganes lose their remaining matches in order to drag Leganes down.
  • Just quick form.
  • No draw for Ath Bilbao since 29th Jan.
  • 7 home wins in 8. Only Real Madrid beat them recently.
  • 6 wins in 8 for Bilbao so solid form.
  • All wins bar 2 at home for Ath Bilbao v teams 4th and lower.
  • Leganes did score and concede at home v 13th and lower but never lose.
  • Leganes are yet to beat a top 12 side home or away.
  • The market loves Bilbao's form and despite the status of the match for them, this is Bilbao's last home match so I'd expect a rock solid performance. I'd expect Leganes to look for slip ups elsewhere!

19:00 - Betis v Atletico Madrid - 1.65 Atl Madrid

  • Atl Madrid tend to win head to heads.
  • This is 15th v 3rd in Spanish La Liga.
  • 2 matches remain. Atl Madrid's only goal is to finish 3rd and Sevilla can overtake them if Madrid lose and Sevilla win their remaining matches.
  • Season over for Betis.
  • 6 defeats in 8 matches for Betis. Atl Madrid are meeting them at the right time.
  • No win v top 5 for Betis who scored at conceded at home to 1st, 2nd and 4th.
  • Atl Madrid are unbeaten in 10 away and are travelling well.
  • 5 clean sheets in 5 away is excellent.
  • 11 0-0's at halftime away so do note if 0-0 at halftime, Atl Madrid have a tendency to score.
  • Atl Madrid are unbeaten home and away v 8th and lower.
  • Clean sheets away v 8th-15th inclusive.

Conclusions

  • The Sevilla threat to 3rd place can be quashed with a win today and Atl Madrid are certainly capable. They seem to have refound that defensive solidity v bottom half away and if keeping their record up, could retain another clean sheet.
  • They have scored in their last 7 away so I would expect a goal from them. 22 of Madrid's 29 goals scored away came 2nd half, so therein is a great angle if 0-0 at halftime.

19:45 - Roma v Juventus - 2.56 Roma

  • 2 consecutive Juve 1-0 wins in head to heads. 1-1 and 2-1 Roma in the last 2 home head to heads.
  • This is 2nd v 1st in Italian Seria A.
  • 3 matches remain this season.
  • A win for Juventus wins them the title today. Naturally this is a must-win for Roma.
  • Just quick research.
  • Roma have lost 1-2, 1-3 v 3rd and 4th at home. 1-1 draw at home v 5th.
  • Juve are ropey on their travels.1-1 away v 3rd, 0-1 v 4th, 2-2 v 5th, losses away v 6th, 7th and 8th.

Conclusions

  • A great spectacle no doubt but the trading angles are tough. Both sides are not good v top teams.
  • Will Roma keep scoring and conceding? Will Juventus keep struggling away v the top 8?

20:00 - Bordeaux v Marseille - 2.54 Bordeaux

  • The odds relay instantly that this a match too tough to call.
  • 2 consecutive 0-0's in head to heads is something I am always keen to oppose.
  • This is 6th v 7th in French Ligue 1.
  • It does all point to a headscratcher!
  • Only Marseille can realistically reach the top 4.
  • The only 2 teams to beat Bordeaux at home in their last 10 matches were Monaco and PSG. Bordeaux must be confident at home.
  • 4 wins in their last 5 at home.
  • Bordeaux kept 4 clean sheets in their last 5 matches overall.
  • Marseille are on a solid run. They are unbeaten in 9 but have 4 draws and 3 0-0's. Oh no, not another 0-0!
  • 3 wins in 4 for Marseille.
  • 3 consecutive away 0-0's ended with a solid win v Caen.
  • Marseille have yet to beat a top 15 side away.

Conclusions

  • 0-0 resounds through the research. 2 0-0's in head to heads. 3 recent 0-0's away for Marseille did end.
  • If you want, back 0-0 pre-match and hope the match remains 0-0 for a while. 4 clean sheets in 5 for Bordeaux may help.
  • Marseille are yet to beat a top 15 side. Lay them if they lead? Needs must? Then Marseille need the wins in order to get top 4.
  • I must lay any late 0-0 given the time of the season.

20:00 - Caen v Rennes - 1.85 Caen

  • 2-0 Rennes in the last head to head.
  • This is 16th v 10th in French Ligue 1. Rare to see a team lower in the league as an odds on favourite.
  • 2 matches remain this season. A win would go a long way to saving Caen from relegation - not mathematically so if Dijon win their 2 remaining matches.  A win and a point for Caen in the last 2 matches is all that they require.
  • Rennes really have little to play for.
  • This is very much a market of must-wins rather than form. Caen have 7 defeats in 8 home matches and you want me to back them at 1.85?
  • Caen have conceded 2 or more goals in each of their last 5 home matches.
  • Caen have not had a 0-0 at home.
  • Caen's only wins at home v top 11 teams came v 3rd and 4th.
  • Rennes season is over. They have had only 3 over 2.5 goals matches since 4th December 2016 so either they are defensively sound or do not score many.
  • Rennes have only scored 2 goals in a match in 2 of their last 20 matches.
  • Rennes have no win in 13 away matches.
  • Only 1 away win for Rennes who lost all aways v bottom 4 teams.

Conclusions

  • Caen do a particularly poor job of persuading us to back them at 1.85 odds. Conceding 2 goals in each of their last 5 at home, 7 defeats in 8 home matches. Are Messi, Neymar, Ronaldo, and Suarez playing for Caen today as guests?
  • The reason Caen might be odds on is 1) need to win and 2) playing a Rennes side who have scored 2 goals in a match only twice in 20 matches. If Rennes only score one goal then Caen have a chance.
  • Are you with the market today?

20:00 - Dijon v Nancy - 2.2 Dijon

  • 1-0 Nancy in the last head to head.
  • This is 18th v 19th in French Ligue 1 and this is le six pointer de la relegation battle.
  • Whoever wins this match is likely to have the better chance of staying up. Or in other words, the loser could be relegated.
  • Since 4th Feb there have only been 3 wins between these 2 sides.
  • 3-2 and 0-0 Dijon at home is mustard, 4 points from 6 last 2 home matches.
  • Dijon at home are unbeaten v 9th-17th inclusive. They did though lose to bottom side at home.
  • 7 consecutive away defeats for Nancy, Sid is not happy.
  • Like Dijon, Nancy are good v bottom sides. 1-0 at home v Dijon, 1-0 at home v Bastia, 0-0 away v Bastia.

Conclusions

  • A real end of season relegation six pointer. I would lay any late draw here today because of the need for the win.
  • These are 2 teams with 3 wins between them since 4th Feb. A slight not towards Dijon whose consistency at home in remaining unbeaten v 9th-17th may edge me towards them.

20:00 - SC Bastia v Lorient - 2.36 Lorient

  • Another relegation six pointer in French Ligue 1. Lorient's odds were 2.52 earlier in the week - illiquid or some quiet money?
  • 0-3 Bastia the last time these 2 teams met.
  • This is bottom (20th) v 17th in French Ligue 1.
  • 2 matches remain. If Bastia lose they are relegated.
  • If Lorient win, they will only need a point in their last match in order to confirm survival.
  • 6 defeats and 2 wins for Bastia in recent matches.
  • Only 1 win in 8 home matches for Bastia came last match.
  • 10 0-0's at halftime at home for Bastia.
  • All draws for Bastia at home v bottom 5, and 2 0-0's v bottom 3 at home.
  • Bastia have failed to score in 7 of their last 9 matches. Where they did score, they won!!
  • 4 wins, 2 losses and a draw for Lorient in recent matches. I imagine they'd be relegated had they not put this run together.
  • 2 consecutive away wins ended with 2 consecutive away losses without scoring.
  • No draw in 10 away for Lorient. Will that put paid to Bastia's draws at home v bottom 5?
  • Lorient are yet to lead at halftime away.
  • Lorient recently beat 19th Nance 2-3 away. A sign of a change in fortune? That was only 1 of 2 away wins.

Conclusions

  • Draws v no draw in 10 away. Who will out?
  • 0-0 is in play thanks to Bastia's home record v bottom 2. If you are taken, back 0-0 pre match and trade out at halftime as we did in the Fulham match yesterday.
  • Both teams are dire. A slight nod towards Lorient only because they have goals in them. 3-1-4-0-5-0-1 scored recently. Not consistently though but there are goals there.

20:00 - Nice v Angers - 1.74 Nice

  • 0-1 Nice in the last head to head.
  • This is 3rd v 14th in French Ligue 1.
  • 2 matches remain this season and Nice should finish 3rd. They cannot be caught and the goal difference to 2nd is far too high for them to summount.
  • Angers are safe by 1 point.
  • This match is a dead rubber and best avoided.

20:00 - Montpellier v Lyon - 2.24 Lyon

  • Lyon have won the 2 most recent head to heads, scoring 5 goals, once in the league and once in the cup.
  • This is 15th v 4th in French Ligue 1.
  • Lyon are still interested in preserving 4th spot from an approaching Marseille.
  • Montpellier are still in the relegation battle until Dijon lose or draw. A draw for Montpellier nails their survival.
  • 7 defeats, 2 wins and a draw in their last 10 matches suggests that Montpellier will be relying on Dijon slipping up.
  • Montpellier surprisingly have an excellent record v top 7 at home. A loss 1-2 v PSG but win, draw, win, win, win v the rest of the top 7.
  • Lyon would just like to secure 4th place and a win will help although 2 Marseille wins will take 3rd place.
  • 2 consecutive wins for Lyon were  very hard fought, seeing both teams score.
  • Only 1 loss in 6 away for Lyon was v PSG.
  • Lyon have actually lost away v 16th, 17th and 18th and play....15th today.

Conclusions

  • What an intriguing match. Montpellier have an excellent record v top 7 at home. Lyon have lost away to the 3 teams directly below Montpellier in the league.
  • Lyon have strong recent away form to Montpellier's 7 defeats, 2 wins and a draw in 10.
  • A reliance on in-play stats I'm afraid.

20:00 - Monaco v Lille - 1.21 Monaco

  • 2 consecutive 4-1 wins in head to heads for Monaco. No wonder the market is so strongly in their favour.
  • This is 1st v 11th in French Ligue 1.
  • All advantage Monaco with 3 points and a game in hand over PSG.
  • Only 3 defeats for Monaco.
  • 9 consecutive wins for Monaco and 15 wins in 17 matches.
  • In 8 of their last 9 matches, Monaco have scored 2 goals at least.
  • Monaco failed to score only once.
  • 17 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches at home for Monaco.
  • Monaco have not had a 0-0 this season.
  • 100% over 2.5 goals at home for Monaco.
  • 2/3rds of goals for Monaco at home have been scored 2nd half.
  • 2 wins in 3 for Lille were 3-0. 4 wins in 6 away for Lille.
  • Lille scored and conceded in the 3 matches away v top 4, Win, Lose, Draw.

Conclusions

  • Expect 2+ goals from Monaco and a replication of their head to head wins v Lille.
  • Both sides could score today as Lille continue to do so v top 4 away from home.
  • Back Monaco if Lille score first.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based only on the expectation for goals.
  • Monaco win the title with a win.

20:00 - St Etienne v Paris St-G - 1.37 PSG

  • 1-1 the last time these 2 met. This is 7th v 2nd in French Ligue 1.
  • This is a must win for PSG although if Monaco win, Monaco win the title.
  • Only 1 loss in 8 matches for St Etienne.
  • 4 consecutive home score draws for St Etienne.
  • No win yet for St Etienne v the top 3. 1-1 and 0-1 for St Etienne v top 3 at home.
  • Only 2 losses for St Etienne at home were 0-1 losses.
  • 16 of 24 goals scored at home for St Etienne came 2nd half.
  • 15 wins, a loss and 2 draws for PSG last 18 matches. 8 consecutive away wins ended v Nice last match.
  • No draw in 18 away v PSG.
  • PSG away beat 4th-8th inclusive.
  • 15 of 25 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • This is a must win for PSG although they look safe in 2nd regardless of what Nice do.
  • If Monaco are leading and comfortable this may impact PSG (e.g. if Monaco lead 3-0 at halftime for instance).
  • St Etienne look tough to beat v top 4 at home so you might want to back 0-0 pre match and hope their traditional 2nd half scoring/conceding comes into play.
  • Faith though in PSG getting the win they need?