Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

Finals day in the tennis can be tough to read. A smattering of football. The confederations cup is a case of taking a position (for example Chile not to lose) and running with it. I will try and complete Norway Eliteserien throughout the day and get it done before 16:00.

16:00 - Portugal v Mexico - 2.12 Portugal

  • A tough confederations cup match to evaluate as these 2 rarely meet and we cannot really gauge performance.
  • Last head to head was a 2014 friendly won by Portugal 0-1
  • only 2 defeats in 17 matches for Portugal sees them in either good health, or meeting teams they are expected to dominate.
  • The role call of recent teams will not have Mexico quivering. Andorra, Faroes, Latvia, Hungary, Sweden, Cyprus and Latvia again.
  • A hint at vulnerability from Mexico despite only 2 defeats since June 2015.
  • A 1-2 win over New Zealand saw a poor Kiwi side score in a friendly. Ronny et al are a step up of course from the Kiwis.
  • Mexico lost to Croatia in a friendly but beat Ireland in a friendly.
  • Tough to call. A match for the in-play stats.

16:30 - KuPS v HJK - 1.64 HJK

  • 2 consecutive HJK wins in head to heads.
  • This is 3rd v 1st in the Finnish Veikkausliiga.

KuPS

  • Only 3 defeats includes one v HJK 2-0.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their 6 home matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 at home.
  • Not led at halftime at home.
  • Conceded 2 goals v top 2 in the 3 matches played.

HJK

  • Only 1 loss.
  • 6 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • Only conceded 1 goal first half away.
  • Only loss came away v 2nd.
  • 1-1-1-0 scored away v 2nd, 5th, 6th and 8th.

Conclusions

  • Note HJK are poor scoring away v top 8, They have yet to score 2 goals. KuPS though do concede 2 goals v the top 2. Is that enough to side with HJK today?
  • Lay KuPS if KuPS score first Or perhaps lay the first goal scorer? There has been a strong both teams to score pattern for KuPS.

16:30 - Mariehamn v JJK - 1.38 Marie

  • 5-2 Mariehamn win in the last head to head.
  • This is 6th v 12th in the Finnish Veikkausliiga.

Mariehamn

  • Only 3 defeats.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals.
  • No 0-0.
  • 9 of 12 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • Beat JJK 5-2 at home already this season and scored and conceded in the 4 matches played v 9th and lower.

JJK

  • Only 1 win.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • No away win.
  • Conceded in their last 5 away.
  • Not won to nil.
  • Opponents tend to score first.

Conclusions

  • I must side with the home team today. Expect at least 2 goals in total today and therefore no 0-0 - lay any late 0-0.
  • Mariehamn may well concede without losing so that is another angle. Note Mariehamn tend to score 2nd half so fear not if they have not scored by halftime.

17:00 - Germany u21 v Czechs u21 - 1.68 Germany u21

  • 3 consecutive 1-1's in head to heads is spread between 2010, 2014 and 2015 so the Czechs will be aware of this
  • This match is being played in Poland.
  • 10 consecutive wins for the Germans and they have goals in them. Since September 2015, they have scored 3-4-6-3-4-4-2-1-4-4 goals.
  • Since August 2011, Czechs have only lost 3 matches, v Russia u21 in 2012, Denmark u21 in 2015 and Belgium in September 2016.
  • The Czechs recent wins have to be contextualised - they have played the likes of Moldova u21, Latvia u21, Malta u21, Montenegro u21, Moldova u21.
  • I would side with the Germans today not to lose. If there is a 1-1 in this match, I would lay the draw and hope their head to head sequence ends.
  • Lay the Czechs if the Czechs score first.

17:00 - Haugesund v Rosenborg - 1.96 Rosenborg

  • 6-0 Rosenborg the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 10th v 1st in the Norwegian Eliteserien after 12 matches.

Haugesund

  • Only 1 home win was a 4-3.
  • Failed to score in 4 consecutive home matches.
  • 0-0 v 2nd at home.

Rosenborg

  • Only 1 loss.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Only 1 win in 5 matches.
  • No defeat in 5 away though.
  • Not lost to nil.
  • 2 goals conceded away came last 15 mins of matches.

Conclusions

  • The market is reticent about Rosenborg because of the poor recent form, albeit only 1 loss all season.
  • 0-0 could be in play here given Haugesund kept 2nd in the league to a 0-0. Haugesund are having trouble scoring so I would expect Rosenborg to be the first scorers if there is to be a goal.
  • Given Roseborg have not lost to nil this season, lay Haugesund if Haugesund score first.
  • On form for the season, if there is to be a halftime leader, it will be Rosenborg.

17:00 - Molde v Tromso - 1.66 Molde

  • Molde are unbeaten in the last 4 head to heads.
  • This is 7th v 14th in the Norwegian Eliteserien.

Molde

  • 4 losses and 2 wins in the last 6 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 7 matches.
  • No draw at home.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 10th and lower.
  • Recent defeats therefore put into context.
  • Only failed to score once at home.
  • Not conceded in both halves at home.
  • No home 0-0.

Tromso

  • Only 1 win in 9 was perversely v league leaders!
  • Scored and conceded last 7 matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime in their last 8 matches.
  • All defeats have come home and away v 4th to 11th inclusive.
  • No 0-0.
  • 8 of 11 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Tromso are highly likely to concede so note that. Note their both teams to score pattern which tells us to lay Tromso if Tromso score first and hope they do not surprise as they did in the win v Rosenborg.
  • I expect Molde to remain unbeaten.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

17:00 - Lillestrom v Viking - 1.73 Lillestrom

  • 1-2 Viking and 2-2 in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 11th v 16th in the Norwegian Eliteserien.

Lillestrom

  • Scored and conceded last 5 matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • 4 goals scored in 2 consecutive matches.
  • No home draw.
  • Wins at home v 12th and 14th should put them in favour for this match v 16th.
  • No 0-0.
  • 6 of 7 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • Opponents have scored first in all home matches.

Viking

  • Only 2 wins, one came last match.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Scored and conceded lasts 4 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 6 away.
  • No away win.
  • Not scored in both halves away.

Conclusions

  • Both sides have the single clean sheet. Yikes! I would expect both teams to score today therefore - Viking more so.
  • Note Lillestrom have a strong 2nd half scoring pattern so if they are yet to score by halftime, expect them to score 2nd half.
  • Lay any late 0-0 of course.
  • Lillestrom should be the most likeliest winners today, given their wins v 12th and 14th at home.

17:00 - Sandefjord v Sarpsborg - 2 Sarpsborg

  • Last head to head was a friendly.
  • This is 12th v 2nd in the Norwegian Eliteserien.

Sandefjord

  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • Unbeaten in 4 at home.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Lost to 1st at home and 3rd away.
  • Not conceded first half at home.
  • Scored and conceded 6 goals 2nd half at home.

Sarsborg

  • 3 consecutive clean sheets.
  • Only 2 defeats.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 7th and lower.
  • 5 of 6 goals scored away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Sarpsborg tend to do their away scoring first half and Sandefjord tend to keep a first half clean sheet. A lack of congruity there.
  • On form, Sarpsborg should remain unbeaten as they are v 7th and lower in the league.

17:00 - Sogndal v Odds BK - 2.48 Odd

  • 3 consecutive wins for Odd in head to heads.
  • This is 9th v 4th in the Norwegian Eliteserien.

Sogndal

  • Scored and conceded last 4 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • 4-2-3 scored last 3 matches at home.
  • 2-3 and 3-2 last 2 matches at home.
  • No 0-0 at home.

Odd

  • 2 consecutive 0-0's.
  • 5 clean sheets in 6 matches.
  • Only 1 loss in 7 matches.
  • v 8th to 15th home and away, Odd are unbeaten.
  • 7 of 8 goals conceded away came 2nd half.
  • Only 3 away goals scored.

Conclusions

  • 2.48 odds tells us the market cannot split the teams.
  • Lay any late 0-0. I can see the sequence for Odd end today. Odd have beaten 10th and 11th away and drawn 0-0 with 8th so I would enter this match hoping the form suggestion Odd remains unbeaten.

19:00 - Valerenga v Stromsgodset - 2.2 Valerenga

  • 2-2, 3-3, 3-2 Stroms, 1-1, 2-0 Stroms in most recent head to heads.
  • This is 8th v 13th in the Norwegian Eliteserien.

Valerenga

  • Only 1 loss in 6 matches.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • Only scored 2+ goals once at home. Can present problems if you cannot score that 2nd goal.
  • No 0-0.
  • 1-0 wins at home v 15th and 16th.
  • 1-2 home loss v 12th a sign of the problems no 2nd goal presents.
  • 6 of 8 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Stroms

  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of 6 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 6 away.
  • Not won away nor led at halftime away.
  • 3 of 4 away defeats v the top 4.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals away.
  • Opponents have scored first in 5/6 away.

Conclusions

  • Stroms don't tend to lose head to heads. They should be favoured today if Valerenga are only scoring a maximum of 1 goal in most home matches. If that pattern continues, 1-0 is the best they can hope for, against a Stroms who have scored and conceded in 5 of their 6 away matches.
  • Stroms tend to concede first and I would, as I say, lay Valerenga if Valerenga score first.
  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Stroms away matches tend to see 2+ goals.

19:00 - Cameroon v Chile - 1.57 Chile

  • No wonder Chile are favourite here with world-class players such as Vargas, Sanchez, Vidal in the attacking third.
  • How on earth do we evaluate a Cameroon side playing almost exclusively against African opponents? In a friendly with Colombia recently (I suspect, to get some South American experience) saw a 0-4 loss.
  • Cameroon were last in the Confederations cup in 2003 where they were ultra defensive.
  • A recent loss to Romania in a friendly for Chile saw them get a 33rd minute red card so that has to be put into context.
  • I would have to side with Chile especially if the big guns are playing. It is tough to get any angles in so keep it simple. Lay Cameroon if Cameroon score first.

19:45 - Denmark u21 v Italy u21 - 1.66 Italy u21

  • Italy u21 are the same odds as Germany u21 today.
  • 0-0 the last time these 2 met in November 2016.
  • 9 consecutive wins for the Danes, the last in October 2016.
  • In that run, the Danes did not concede that 2nd goal.
  • Italy u21 are unbeaten in 12 matches. 0-0 v Lithuania u21 last match is poor stuff.
  • A 0-1 win v Andorra u21 suggests possible goal scoring concerns.
  • I would back 0-0 pre-match here and hope that the 0-0 of November 2016 resurrects today. I tend to trade out at halftime.
  • The 1.66 odds look too short for me - put it this way. I would not be an Italian backer with a) Denmark's winning run b) last head to head c) Italy's poor results v Lithuania u21 and Andorra u21.

TENNIS

Finals day today and I prefer to plunder earlier rounds. Rather like Football finals, these tend to be 'best on the day' and not strong trading candidates.

ATP Stuttgart

Feliciano Lopez v Lucas Pouille - 1.84 Lopez - the FINAL

  • 40th v 14th. The market dismisses the rankings here and sides with Lopez.
  • 2 3-set head to heads saw both players win a match.
  • Lopez has battled in this tournament. 3 consecutive 3-setters and in his last 2, he lost the first set in a tie breaker. He beat 13th and 35th in the rankings. Decent stuff.
  • There is a concern with Lopez regarding his back. But his performances suggest that this is not a serious injury.
  • 52nd, 31st, 49th has been beaten by Pouille. As you would expect if he was a true 14th ranked player. Little to learn here therefore.
  • 3 sets, 3 sets, tie breaker 2 sets for Pouille.
  • I personally am more taken by Lopez today and would think 1.84 is tempting already. The odds though suggest a 3-setter so lay the first set winner. I would be more confident in laying Pouille if Pouille wins the first set.

RICOH OPEN

Natalia Vikhlyantseva v Anett Kontaveit - 1.33 Kontaveit - FINAL

  • 77th v 73rd. This match should be tighter than the odds suggest. I put forward a lay of Alexander Zverev at 1.33 yesterday and that seems the obvious choice so far given the rankings.
  • Only 1 set lost by Natalia.
  • 3 consecutive 6-3 first set wins.
  • 3 3-set matches in 4 for Anett. Kontaveit would be layable if winning the first set, as occured last match. Natalia you'll bet, will dig in her heels and we may see an odds rise.

Ivo Karlovic v Gilles Muller - 1.85 Muller

  • 22nd v 28th in this Final.
  • The last 2 head to heads between these 2 saw 5 tie breakers. Muller won in 2 tie breakers in the semis at this venue last year.
  • Karlovic won in 3 tie breakers in a final in Newport last year.
  • The problem with Ivo's tie breakers is that it opens the match up for his opponent who only needs to win a key point or 2, in order to snatch the set (as Muller did last year!).
  • No strong angles for me. Expect tie breakers.

WTA Nottingham

Johanna Konta v Donna Vekic - 1.2 Konta

  • 7th v 84th.
  • Konta won with ease in a head to head in 2016.
  • Konta is yet to drop a set in reaching this Final.
  • Vekic had to fight a 3 setter, featuring 2 tie breakers in order to get to this Final.
  • Safarova was 28th, the highest rank for Vekic.
  • The market is strongly with the Brit.Lay Vekic if Vekic wins the opener?