Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

Some good calls yesterday in the live chat, and it was lower league teams who largely provided the profits. Eastenders cast members were delighted as Southend came from 0-2 down to win 3-2.
I begin today's live chat at 14:00 for the Italian Seria A.

11:30 - Heerenveen v Feyenoord - 1.82 Fey

  • Feyenoord odds drifted this week from 1.71 earlier this week.
  • 1-2 Heerenveen and 2-2 last head to heads. Could be a toughie for Feyenoord today who must reply to PSV's 1-0 win yesterday.
  • This is 8th v 1st in the Dutch Eredivisie.

Heerenveen 100% stats

  • Not beaten a top 4 side.
  • No over 4.5 goals at home.

Heerenveen other stats

  • Only 1 win in 8 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 18 of 21 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Feyenoord 100% stats

  • Unbeaten home and away v top 11.
  • No 0-0.

Feyenoord other stats

  • 11 wins in 12 matches.
  • 0-0-0-0-1 conceded recent away matches.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • 6 clean sheets in 7 matches away v top 11.
  • 13 goals scored away last 1/2 hour of matches.

Conclusions

  • Feyenoord should be confident based on season form. Even keeping clean sheets away v top 11 teams.
  • But head to heads see Heerenveen a thorn in the side. Having failed to score only 4 times, Heerenveen may score today. But they have a very strong 2nd half scoring bias so expect 2nd half scoring.
  • Feyenoord's key is their defence.
  • I do expect Feyenoord not to lose today. I would not discount a score draw.

11:30 - Empoli v Napoli - 1.33 Napoli

  • Napoli have scored 2 goals at least in their last 6 head to heads.
  • This is 17th v 3rd in Italian Seria A.

Empoli 100% stats

  • Not beaten any top 11 team home or away.
  • Didn't score 2 goals in any of those matches.

Empoli other stats

  • Failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • 6 defeats in 7 matches.
  • Conceded 2 or more goals in their last 5 matches.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 12 goals conceded last 1/2 hour of home matches.

Napoli 100% stats

  • Unbeaten home and away v 7th and lower.
  • Not conceded in both halves away.

Napoli other stats

  • Only 4 defeats.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 8 of their last 9 away matches.
  • Scored 2+ goals in their last 7 away matches.
  • Only failed to score 2+ goals once away v 7th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Empoli to break their duck v a top 11 side? It seems unlikely. Napoli should score 2 goals at least today.
  • Napoli may concede so watch out for that, but they have scored 2+ goals in their last 7 away matches. Back Napoli if Napoli concede first.

12:00 - Middlesbrough v Man Utd - 1.62 Man Utd

  • Mid week Europa League should not adversely affect United.
  • 2-1 United last head to head saw them come from behind to win.
  • This is 19th v 6th in the English Premiership.

Middlesbrough 100% stats

  • Not beaten a top 13 team home or away.
  • Not scored 2 goals in any of those matches.
  • No over 4.5 goals matches.

Middlesbrough other stats

  • Failed to score in 6 of their last 8 matches.
  • 2 0-0's in their last 4 home matches - likely tactic today.
  • 33% over 2.5 goals all season suggests a defensive bent and an inability to score regularly.

Man Utd 100% stats

  • All wins away v 14th and lower.
  • No over 4.5 goals matches away.

Man Utd other stats

  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • 4 wins in their last 5 aways.
  • 3 clean sheets in their last 4 matches.

Conclusions

  • It's not impossible for Boro to stay up this season but they will require 3 points today. With only 33% over 2.5 goals all season expect Boro to be set up to frustrate. They have had recent 0-0's at home v Leicester and an effervescent Everton so United may have to be patient.
  • Do expect a United goal at some point though. They have only failed to score in 4 matches and have beaten all bottom 6 sides away.
  • I would not be surprised with a 0-0 at halftime. I would consider a correct score play 2nd half if 0-0 at halftime. 0-1, 0-2, 1-2.

13:30 - Excelsior v Ajax - 1.3 Ajax

  • Ajax tend to win head to heads to nil.
  • This is 15th v 2nd in the Dutch Eredivisie. This is a must win for Ajax who are 4 points shy of Feyenoord.

Excelsior 100% stats

  • Lost v all top 4 teams.
  • No win v top 7 teams at home.
  • No 0-0.

Excelsior other stats

  • Only 2 wins in 21 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 34 matches.
  • 92% over 1.5 goals.

Ajax 100% stats

  • Unbeaten v 10th and lower.
  • Scored 2/3 goals away v 12th and lower.
  • No over 4.5 goals away.
  • No 0-0.

Ajax other stats

  • 8 wins and a draw last 9 matches.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • 8 0-0's at halftime away.
  • 17 of 22 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Ajax tend to win head to heads. Excelsior have lost to all top 4 teams.
  • Ajax should score 2/3 goals as they have away v12th and lower.
  • Note the strong 2nd half goalscoring for Ajax. If 0-0 of it they are losing at halftime, I expect goals 2nd half.

14:00 - Sampdoria v Juventus - 1.55 Juventus

  • 9 goals in 2 wins for Juventus.
  • This is 9th v 1st in the Italian Seria A.

Sampdoria 100% stats

  • No draw v top 6 home and away.

Sampdoria other stats

  • Scored 3 goals in 3 of their last 4 home matches.
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 at home.
  • Scored and conceded all matches v top 4.

Juventus 100% stats

  • No 0-0.

Juventus other stats

  • Failed to score in only 1 match.
  • Scored in their last 19 matches.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Have lost away to 5th, 7th, 8th and play 9th today.
  • 16 of 20 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Watch out for Juventus goals 2nd half if they have not scored first half.
  • Sampdoria are in good scoring form at home, 3 goals in 3 of last 4 homes and note Juve lose v teams around Samp in the league away.
  • Potential for Juve struggles?
  • I think both teams could score today. I do think Juventus could respond if Samp score first and Samp could score first if 16 of Juve's away goals come 2nd half.
  • 3-1, 3-2, 1-2 possible speculative scorelines for me today.

14:00 - Cagliari v Lazio - 1.61 Lazio

  • 5 consecutive Lazio wins in head to heads saw Lazio score 4-3-4 goals.
  • This is 15th v 4th in Italian Seria A.

Cagliari 100% stats

  • Not beaten a top 4 side.
  • 2-5 goals conceded at home v top 5 sides.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals at home.
  • No 0-0.

Cagliari other stats

  • Only 1 win in 8 matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Conceded in their last 24 matches.
  • 85% over 2.5 goals at home.

Lazio 100% stats

  • Unbeaten v 12th and lower.
  • All away wins v 12th and lower.
  • No 0-0.

Lazio other stats

  • 5 wins and a draw in their last 6 matches.
  • 92% over 1.5 goals away.

Conclusions

  • Lazio should win today. They have a solid look v teams 12th and lower and Cagliari are yet to beat a top 5 side. Cagliari can have those nightmare defensive matches so are vulnerable if scoring first.
  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • I would expect 2 goals at least in total.

14:00 - Caen v Monaco - 1.66 Monaco

  • 1-1. 2-2, 2-1 Monaco in the last 3 head to heads.
  • This is 16th v 1st in French Ligue 1.

Caen 100% stats

  • No home 0-0.
  • No draw at home v top 9.

Caen other stats

  • 2-3 loss and 2-2 last 2 matches.
  • Beat 3rd and 4th at home but Monaco surely will simply outscore them today?

Monaco 100% stats

  • 9 wins and 2 draws in 11 matches.
  • Unbeaten v 13th and lower.
  • No 0-0.

Monaco other stats

  • Failed to score only once.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 away.
  • Scored last 23 matches.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. Monaco more than capable of scoring first half.
  • Monaco may concede but not lose.

14:00 - Atalanta v Pescara - 1.28 Atalanta

  • 0-1 Atalanta in the last head to head.
  • This is 7th v 20th in Italian Seria A.

Atalanta 100% stats

  • No draw v 11th and lower.

Atalanta other stats

  • 4 consecutive home clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • 6 wins and a 0-1 loss in 7 matches v bottom 5 sides. 0-1 at home v 18th, 1-0 at home v 19th.
  • 14 of 20 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Pescara 100% stats

  • No 0-0 away.
  • Not led at halftime away.
  • All defeats away v top 12.
  • Not scored in both halves away.

Pescara other stats

  • 9 losses in 10 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • No win in 13 away matches.
  • Conceded 3 goals at least in 7 of 8 away matches v top 10 teams.
  • 10 of 11 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • At their worst, Pescara will concede 3 or more goals today but watch out with Atalanta at home to the bottom 3 sides, 0-1 and 1-0 is not compelling v strugglers at home.
  • Watch out for 2nd half bias here if 0-0 at halftime.
  • Form software trial - Atalanta have won 8/10 home matches while Pescara have lost 5/5 away matches against top-six teams. There have been +2.5 goals in 4/5 Pescara away matches against top-six teams. (My note - this software has not mentioned the 0-1/1-0 for Atalanta v bottom 3 at home).

14:15 - Tottenham v Southampton - 1.73 Tottenham

  • 1-2 Southampton and 1-4 Tottenham in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 2nd v 10th in the English Premier League.

Tottenham 100% stats

  • Undefeated at home.
  • Scored in all home matches.
  • No 0-0 at home (of course!).

Tottenham other stats

  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • 6 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • 9 consecutive home wins.
  • 2 0-1 defeats at halftime. Note that as Spurs have not lost as home.
  • Scored 2+ goals in 7 of 8 matches at home v top 12 teams.

Southampton 100% stats

  • Not beaten a top 9 team away.
  • Not beaten top 6 home and away.

Southampton other stats

  • Scored 4 goals in each of their last 2 away matches.
  • No draw in 10 matches.

Conclusions

  • Southampton have not beaten a top 9 team away so if scoring first today, I would lay them. They tend not to score 2 goals v top teams home and away.
  • Tottenham have goals in them, usually 2 goals v top 12 teams.

15:15 - Atletico Madrid v Sevilla - 1.68 Atl Madrid

  • 0-0 and 1-0 Sevilla in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 4th v 3rd in Spanish La Liga. Sevilla are still realistic title challengers. Madrid really aren't.
  • These 2 had Champions League matches mid week.

Atl Madrid 100% stats

  • All defeats have come v top 6 sides.
  • Yet to beat a top 3 side.
  • Not beaten the top 7 home or away.
  • No home match with exactly 4 goals.

Atl Madrid other stats

  • Scored in their last 6 home matches.

Sevilla 100% stats

  • Not played top 4 away yet.
  • Not lost to nil.

Sevilla other stats

  • Failed to score in only 2 pages.
  • 2 consecutive 1-1 draws.
  • Scored in their last 13 away matches.
  • 11 goals scored last 15 mins.

Conclusions

  • A messy match to conclude as Sevilla are yet to play the top 4 away and did have a 0-0 v 5th home and away. This is a renewed Sevilla so I would have liked to have seen form v some of the top 4 away.
  • Atl Madrid are yet to beat a top 3 side so note that.
  • A match for the in-play stats. Both sides are scoring regularly but I note the recent Sevilla 1-0 head to head win.

16:30 - Man City v Liverpool - 2.02 Man City

  • 3-0 and 1-0 Liverpool in the last 2 head to heads - note those were at home.
  • This is 3rd v 4th in the premiership. I am not going to research a top 4 match like this fully. Just note the basics.
  • No win in 4 Liverpool. 4 clean sheets in 5 man City.
  • Both teams tend to score and concede v top teams at home (City) and away (Liverpool).
  • I tend to follow the stats in-play. These teams can always cancel each other out. Both teams could score today. The only angle really.

16:30 - Mgladbach v Bayern Munich - 1.43 Bayern

  • 1-1 and 2-0 Bayern in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 9th v 1st in the German Bundesliga.

Mgladbach 100% stats

  • No win home or away v top 7 sides.
  • Not lost to nil at home.

Mgladbach other stats

  • 5 wins in their last 7 matches.
  • Scored in their last 7 home matches.
  • All 3 home losses were 1-2.
  • 8 of 11 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Bayern 100% stats

  • Unbeaten outside the top 3.
  • All wins away v 7th and lower.
  • No over 4.5 goals matches away.
  • No 0-0.

Bayern other stats

  • 4 clean sheets in 5 matches.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • 6 wins in 7 aways.
  • Scored 9 goals last 15 mins away.

Conclusions

  • On form Mgladbach should not be beating a top 5 team so let that be your angle if Mgladbach score first.
  • Bayern should manage 2 goals if firing on all cylinders. Note their late goals stats if 1-1 or losing 75th minute onwards!

17:30 - Deportivo v Celta Vigo - 2.18 Depor

  • 4-1 Celta in the most recent head to head.
  • This is 15th v 12th in Spanish La Liga.

Deportivo 100% stats

  • Failed to beat 9th-18th home or away.
  • No home match with 4 goals exactly.

Deportivo other stats

  • Unbeaten in 4.
  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • 2 consecutive home 1-1 draws includes v Atl Madrid.
  • Only one match where they are losing at halftime at home.
  • Not conceded at home first half hour of matches.
  • 12 of 14 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Celta Vigo 100% stats

  • Unbeaten away v 9th and lower.

Celta Vigo other stats

  • Only 1 win in 6 matches.
  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 0-0 came away.
  • All defeats bar 1 all season have come v top 8 sides.
  • 18 of 26 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • There is a very strong 2nd half concession rate for both teams so watch that.
  • Depor are likely to keep a clean sheet for the first 30 mins of the match. Depor rarely lose at halftime at home.
  • For me, this points to Celta not losing. Depor have not beaten any side 9th-18th inclusive home and away (this does not discount a score draw). Celta tend to exclusively lose to top 8 sides.
  • I will trade this match with a bias towards Celta.

19:45 - Barcelona v Valencia - 1.15 Barcelona

  • 1-2 Valencia and 2-3 Barcelona in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 2nd v 13th in Spanish Primera Liga.

Barcelona 100% stats

  • Unbeaten at home v 11th and lower.
  • Not lost to nil.
  • Not conceded 2 goals v teams 11th and lower at home.

Barcelona other stats

  • Only 3 defeats. Last defeat I think was a hangover from the amazing recovery v PSG in the Champions League.
  • Only failed to score once.
  • 6 consecutive home wins.
  • No defeat in 11 at home.
  • Scored 2+ goals in each of their last 6 matches.
  • Scored first 11/13 at home.

Valencia 100% stats

  • No draw v teams above them in the league.
  • At least one team as scored 2+ goals in all matches v top 7 teams.

Valencia other stats

  • 8 defeats in 9 matches away v top 12 teams.

Conclusions

  • Both teams could score today. I expect a correction from Barcelona at home where they have scored 11 goals in 2 matches. Valencia tend to give them a game but have generally lost v a top 12 team.
  • One team should score 2+ goals today and that is likely to be Barcelona. The market expects them to score 3/4 goals today at least.
  • Barcelona have not lost to nil so lay Valencia if Valencia score first.
  • Form stats software trial conclusion - There have been +2.5 goals in 15/16 Barcelona home matches against bottom-half teams and in 14/18 Valencia away matches. There have been +3.5 goals in 5/10 Valencia away matches against Big Two teams.

19:45 - Roma v Sassuolo - 1.3 Roma

  • Roma tend to win head to heads. 2 2-2's in the last 2 home head to heads.
  • This is 2nd v 13th in the Italian Seria A.

Roma 100% stats

  • No home draw.
  • Scored all home matches.
  • All wins at home v 5th and lower.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 11th and lower.

Roma other stats

  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • 12 wins in 15 matches.
  • No draw in 17 matches.
  • 25 of 37 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Sassuolo 100% stats

  • No win home or away v top 11 teams.
  • Scored and conceded in all away matches v top 15 sides.

Sassuolo other stats

  • Only 7 clean sheets.
  • 3 wins and a 0-0 last 4 away matches.
  • Not lost to nil away.

Conclusions

  • Roma tend to win head to heads. They have scored in all home matches and are unbeaten v 11th and lower. Add to that Sassuolo have yet to beat a top 11 team away and we have a strong bias towards Roma.
  • Sassuolo may score but tend to score and concede.
  • I woud lay any late draw.

20:00 - Paris St-G v Lyon - 1.49 PSG

  • PSG tend to win the home head to heads.
  • This is 2nd v 4th in French Ligue 1 - 15 points though between these 2.

PSG 100% stats

  • No home defeat.
  • All draws at home v top 5.
  • Not conceded in both halves at home.

PSG other stats

  • 9 wins in 11 matches.
  • Failed to score in 4 matches.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home.

Lyon other stats

  • 4-4-4-5 scored....at home recently but away...0-1-1.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime in the last 21 matches.
  • Only 1 win v top 8 away was v Monaco.

Conclusions

  • Lyon did beat Monaco away but that seems anomolous when compared to the other top 8 teams.
  • I would lay Lyon if Lyon scored first. They score readily at home but dry up away.
  • I would consider actually laying the first team to score given PSG keep drawing at home v top 5 teams.
  • Form software conclusions - Paris St-G have won by two or more goals in 12/15 home matches against top-six teams and they have had W/W double results in 10/14 such matches. Lyon have conceded first in 5/9 away matches against top-six teams.