Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

A live chat which was bookended by 2 10/1 winners, a back of 2-0 Bayern halftime score and a lay of Feyenoord 1-0 up at odds of 1.1. It was a tough day in between those winners, with Scotland surprisingly proving very unreliable. There is no reason to it. No post-International or pre-Champions League malaise. The live chat did improve later on though as several profitable angles came to light. Today's live chat will be at 14:00 to cover the Italian Seria A.
Bar the Scots, the shortlist at DRT Facebook was accurate. I will be doing another shortlist today. These shortlists get to the matches with the best angles. Not all matches I research are ideal for trading.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

16:00 - Watford v West Ham - 2.16 Watford

Watford (9th)

  • 3 consecutive defeats.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Scored 2 goals at least in 8 matches this season.
  • Only 1 0-0.
  • Not played bottom 6 at home.

West Ham (18th)

  • Only 2 wins came first half.
  • 3 defeats and now 3 draws away.
  • 3 consecutive 0-2 defeats at halftime.
  • Only 1 0-0.
  • New manager in David Moyes.
  • Conceded a whopping 6 goals in the last 15 mins of away matches.

Conclusions

  • The football genius that is David Moyes has arrived at West Ham. Hopeless at Man Utd, sacked from Sociedad, got Sunderland relegated. One of life's great mysteris!
  • His appearance at West Ham means West Ham will currently be unreadable until any positives his chantges make are embedded.
  • ON FORM - lay the late 0-0.
  • Watford have a high percentage chance of scoring 2 goals.
  • Not a match I want to trade, but I am keen to watch via the in-play stats.

ITALIAN SERIA A

11:30 - Crotone v Genoa - 2.54 Genoa

  • A wholly off-putting market but we shall see if research uncovers an angle.
  • 1-3 genoa and 2-2 last 2 head to heads. Goals today?

Crotone (15th)

  • 2 consecutive wins, only 3 all season.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • 2 goals scored in each of their last 3 home matches.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Only 1 0-0.
  • Home losses have come v top 7.

Genoa (18th)

  • 3 consecutive defeats.
  • Only 1 win.
  • Failed to score in 5/6 away.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in 5 of their last 7.

Conclusions

  • For me Crotone are favoured today based on losing only to top 7 teams this season. Genoa, with only one win all season, and failing to score in 5 of their last 7, look less robust.
  • Do note markets like this tend to suggest matches which could go either way. I am saying the form suggests home side advantage.

14:00 - Benevento v Sassuolo - 2.08 Sassuolo

Benevento (20th)

  • All defeats.
  • Scored in their last 3.
  • Yet to meet a bottom 8 side at home.
  • Concede first at home.

Sassuolo (17th)

  • Only 2 wins were 0-1 away.
  • 3 consecutive defeats.
  • 1-1-1-1 scored in their last 4 away matches.
  • 2 wins came v 14th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Benevento should win a match....soon.
  • Sassuolo despite poor form, are near evens favourites.
  • Sassuolo have scored in their last 4 aways so expect a goal from them. The question is whether Benevento can muster a goal?
  • 0-1 looks a likely Sassuolo win if they are to win.

14:00 - Spal v Fiorentina - 1.93 Fiorentina

SPAL (16th)

  • Only 2 wins.
  • Only 2 clean sheets. One came last home match win.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Not met 2nd-12th inclusive at home. Lost 2-3 to Juventus.

Fiorentina (9th)

  • Only 1 draw.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • No away draw.
  • Have beaten 19th and 20th away but lost the other matches.

Conclusions

  • Logic says we oppose newcomers Spal with only 2 wins all season.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Fiorentina have been poor away apart from emphatic wins v bottom 2. Will that extend to 16th?

14:00 - Sampdoria v Juventus - 1.57 Juventus

  • 4 consecutive Juventus wins in head to heads.
  • Juventus have Champions League commitments mid week.

Sampdoria (6th)

  • Only 2 losses came away.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • 100% wins at home.
  • Scored 2+ goals in all home matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Not met top 5 at home so that 100% record needs that context.
  • All 3 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Juventus (2nd)

  • Only 1 loss.
  • Scored 2+ goals in 10 matches.
  • Scored in every match.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
  • Win, Win, Loss, Win pre Champions League.
  • Only 2 under 2.5 goals matches.
  • Not played the top 6 away.
  • Led at halftime in 4/5 away.

Conclusions

  • Juventus's only loss came pre Champions League. They will have to be careful as Sampdoria have scored 2 + goals regularly.
  • Concern that these 2 are yet to meet top 6 teams so nothing to gauge them by v top 6 today.
  • On form, lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • An interesting match where we would tend to side with Juventus but note that Samp have yet to meet top 6 at home and Juve top 6 away.
  • It is the kind of match, I must say, where Juventus could slip up away from home pre Champions League IF Sampdoria are as adept at scoring 2 goals v top 6 as they are v the rest at home.

14:00 - Torino v Chievo - 1.84 Torino

  • 2-1 and 1-3 in the last 2 head to heads for Torino.

Torino (8th)

  • Only 3 defeats, 2 v Roma and Juventus. Takes a good one to beat Torino currently.
  • For all that, they have conceded in their last 9 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • No 0-0.
  • Unbeaten v 12th and lower.
  • Scored 2 goals at least in 4 matches at home.
  • No opponent has led at halftime at home.

Chievo (11th)

  • All 4 defeats came v top 7 and they scored in each defeat.
  • Kept Napoli to 0-0 last match.

Conclusions

  • A niggly match. Why? Torino tend to go unbeaten v 12th and lower and play....11th.
  • Chievo tend to lose to top 7 and play.....8th.
  • Will the form extend to that one place? If so then Torino should be scoring 2 goals and Chievo scoring in defeat.
  • Lay any late 0-0.

14:00 - Udinese v Cagliari - 1.98 Udinese

  • Both teams have scored in the last 4 head to heads.

Udinese (13th)

  • No draw.
  • Only 4 wins.
  • 3 wins came at home.
  • Scored in every match.
  • Scored 2+ goals in each of their last 4 home matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime.
  • 9 over 2.5 goals matches v top 16 teams.

Cagliari

  • No draw.
  • Only 4 wins.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • 3 consecutive 2-1 scorelines.
  • Conceded in their last 8 matches.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 3 aways.
  • All wins v teams below them in the league.

Conclusions

  • Identical form on paper.
  • Both teams are highly likely to score on form. Udinese have a good chance of scoring 2 goals again given Cagliari are conceding 2+ goals away.
  • I would therefore lay Cagliari if Cagliari lead.
  • Will we see a draw? The likelihood increases the longer the drawless sequence continues.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on Udinese.

19:45 - Inter v Atalanta - 1.76 Inter

  • A whopping 7-1 last head to head in Inter's favour.
  • Atalanta have a Europa League match upcoming.

Inter (3rd)

  • Unbeaten.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • Scored and conceded last 3 at home.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • All 5 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Atalanta (10th)

  • Only 4 wins.
  • Scored and conceded all away matches.
  • Failed to score only 1st match of the season.
  • Scored in their last 11 matches.
  • Not won away.
  • 8 of 10 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • No Champions League concerns for Inter should result in another unbeaten match. Both teams could score today with Inter not losing. Atalanta in fact have lost 3-1 to top teams away.
  • Inter needed a late equalizer last home match so do keep the faith if it is 0-1 late on.Remember 80% of Atalanta away goals were conceded 2nd half.

SPANISH LA LIGA

11:00 am - Malaga v Deportivo - 2.42 Malaga

  • The home team tends to remain unbeaten in recent head to heads.

Malaga (20th)

  • Only 1 win last home match.
  • Conceded every match.
  • Only scored in 3 matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • 8 of 10 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Deportivo (16th)

  • Only 3 wins.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Unbeaten v teams below them in the league.

Conclusions

  • It looks a poor La Liga Sunday and I have cut this one short. 2 poor sides are not that trustworthy.

15:15 - Espanyol v Valencia - 2.22 Valencia

  • 3 consecutive Valencia wins in head to heads. All one-goal-in-it wins.

Espanyol (13th)

  • Win, Win, Draw, Win last 4 at home.
  • Only 4 defeats.
  • Not played top 7 at home.
  • Scored first in 3/5 at home.

Valencia

  • Unbeaten.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • Scored 3+ goals in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • Only failed to score 2+ goals once away.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
  • Both teams have scored in all away matches.
  • Scored first in 4/5 away matches.

Conclusions

  • Valencia are in excellent form but are lukewarm favourites.
  • Espanyol are unbeaten last 4 at home but are yet to be tested by the top 7 so some unknown with Espanyol.
  • On form I would have to favour Valencia on their excellent scoring form. Scoring 2 goals as they usually do should produce the win for Valencia.
  • I would lay Espanyol if Espanyol score first.

17:30 - Las Palmas v Levante - 1.84 Las Palmas

  • No recent head to heads.

Las Palmas (19th)

  • No draw sees all defeats bar 2 wins.
  • 7 consecutive defeats.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 6 matches.
  • Scored in 3 home matches v 12th and lower.

Levante (14th)

  • Only 3 defeats.
  • Unbeaten at halftime away.
  • 2-2, 2-2, 0-2 loss v teams 16th and lower.
  • 6 of 7 conceded goals away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Does the market know something I don't? Is there an injury crisis at Levante? How on earth a team with only 2 wins all season are odds on favourites is a mystery only Arthur C. Clarke can solve.
  • I will leave this match alone. Levante have lost only 3 matches but I note they conceded 2 goals v 16th and lower.
  • My only guess - https://www.transfermarkt.com/ud-levante/sperrenundverletzungen/verein/3368 - and this website shows the injuries, is that they are lacking up front?

19:45 - Athletic Bilbao v Villarreal - 2.24 Ath Bilbao

  • Spoils shared in last year's head to heads.

Ath Bilbao (15th)

  • Only 1 win in 8 matches saw 6 defeats.
  • 0-2-1-1-0 scored at home.
  • Only 1 0-0.
  • 2 home defeats v top 4 teams.

Villareal (6th)

  • 4 wins in 5 matches.
  • Only 1 loss in 9 matches.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime and only 1 0-0 fulltime.
  • All wins v 17th and lower.
  • All 3 defeats this season came away from home.

Conclusions

  • So a side, 6th in the league, with only 1 loss in 9 matches, are NOT favourites today? Is this because of Bilbao's 1-0 win v 5th , 0-0 v 10th and 2-0 win v 11th at home?
  • This is another market which confuses.
  • What I would take out of the match? Note 6 0-0's at halftime Villareal and only one 0-0 fulltime. We are more likely to see 2nd half goals if 0-0 at halftime.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 - Schalke v Hamburg - 1.61 Schalke

  • 2-1 Hamburg and 1-1 in the last 2 head to heads.

Schalke (4th)

  • Only 3 defeats.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
  • 6 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Only 1 home loss v 1st.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 9th and lower.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals at home.

Hamburg (15th)

  • Only 3 wins. Won last match.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • 4 consecutive away defeats.
  • All defeats without scoring home and away v top 9.

Conclusions

  • This does look straightforward for Schalke. Hamburg tend to lose to nil to top 9 so big surprise if Hamburg score.
  • With Schalke all the way here.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. Oppose any Hamburg lead.

17:00 - Werder Bremen v Hannover - 2.2 Werder Bremen

  • No recent head to heads.

Werder Bremen (17th)

  • No win.
  • Failed to score in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Failed to score in 4 of 5 home matches.
  • Only 3 over 2.5 goals matches.
  • All defeats v top 10.
  • Only 1 goal scored at home.

Hannover (6th)

  • Only 3 losses came within the last 5 matches.
  • 2 2-1 losses in 3 away matches.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 5 away and last 5 overall.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Unbeaten v 10th and lower.
  • All goals scored away 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Poor Werder. Usually ultra reliable for goals before halftime and both teams scoring but clearly something amiss.
  • They cannot be trusted at the moment. Heck, they can't even score at the moment.
  • Hannover are unbeaten v teams below them in the league and must be favoured today.
  • Werder though must win a match soon.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

13:30 - Groningen v Vitesse - 2.24 Vitesse

  • 2-1 Vitesse and 1-1 in the last 2 head to heads.

Groningen (15th)

  • Only 2 wins.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • 3 score draws and a win at home v top 11.

Vitesse (5th)

  • Only 2 losses.
  • 4 wins and a draw away.
  • Failed to score only in the last match.
  • Not conceded 1st half away.

Conclusions

  • Both teams could score today. I would take Vitesse not to lose if both teams score. That does not discount a score draw. After all, Groningen have had 3 score draws at home v top 11 teams.
  • Vitesse statistically are the team most likely to score first half.

13:30 - Utrecht v Excelsior - 1.5 Utrecht

  • Both teams scored in the last 3 head to heads with Utrecht winning.

Utrecht (9th)

  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • 2-2-1-3-2 goals scored at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
  • Only home loss was v 1st in the league.

Excelsior

  • 3 wins in 4 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
  • Scored 2+ goals in all away matches.

Conclusions

  • It seems to be a pattern today. An unfathomable market. Excelsior, let us not forget, have 4 wins and a 2-2 away, have scored 2 goals at least in all aways and beaten 4th in the league away.
  • Surely they can be competitive today?
  • Utrecht are also scoring for fun at home 2+ generally. Utrecht have lost only to 1st in the league at home. They have scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Both teams could score given the form Excelsior show away.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • I would not be backing Utrecht at such short odds. Is this because Utrecht have such an emphatic head to head record?

13:30 - Zwolle v PSV - 1.63 PSV

  • PSV have tended to score 3/4 goals in recent head to heads.

Zwolle (3rd)

  • Only loss v Ajax. An excellent start to the season.
  • 4 consecutive clean sheets.
  • Scored 2+ goals in all home matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Not played top 9 at home so this great run needs that context.

PSV Eindhoven (1st)

  • All wins bar 1 loss = no draw this season.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
  • 3 1-1's in the last 4 matches at halftime.
  • 4-0-7-5-4 goals scored away. The Man City of Holland?
  • 2-0-2-3 goals conceded recently and still won!
  • Not yet played the top 4 away.
  • 15 of 20 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Zwolle's sole loss this season was v Ajax. I feel another defeat today. Zwolle are in excellent nick but have yet to meet the top 9 at home and on that basis, their excellent form needs a context.
  • Even when conceding 2 or 3 goals, PSV are still winning so that is a ready angle in for me. Fear not a Zwolle 2-0 lead and take them on.
  • On form, lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

15:45 - Roda JC v Az Alkmaar - 1.54 AZ

  • 2 consecutive head to head 1-1's.

Roda (18th)

  • Only 2 wins.
  • 1 goal max scored in home matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • No 0-0.
  • Not won at halftime at home.
  • Not beaten a top 9 side.

AZ (4th)

  • 3 defeats, 2 came v the big 2.
  • 3 consecutive wins.
  • 2-2-2-1-2 scored away. Consistent stuff.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
  • 2 goals at least scored in 6/7 matches played v 8th and lower.

Conclusions

  • The form suggests 2 goals from AZ and that should be enough to ensure victory or worst case scenario a draw.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Lay the 0-0.
  • Lay Roda if Roda score first as they find it hard to score that 2nd goal.