Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

I do regret not live chatting yesterday given the likes of Rangers 2-2 from 2-0 down v Motherwell, and Barcelona's 2-2 from 2-0 down against Sevilla. I do not think, at time of writing, that I have any plans later so a 13:30 provisional Twitter chat @drtclub is on. I hope you understand if I cannot make it given this holiday period. If I am free, I am there!

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

13:30 - Arsenal v Stoke - 1.35 Arsenal

  • 9 games in for Paul Lambert as Stoke Manager.

Arsenal (6th)

  • Arsenal play CSKA Moscow in the Europa League 5th April.
  • 3 consecutive defeats ended last match.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Only home losses v top 2.
  • 100% wins at home v 8th and lower.

Stoke City (19th)

  • 9 matches under Lambert. Only 1 win.
  • 3-0-0-2-1-1-0-2-2 conceded under Lambert. 2 v City and 2 v Everton - latter saw Stoke red carded so discount it as true form.
  • 0-1-1-0 scored away by Stoke under Lambert.

Conclusions

  • A win could take Stoke out of the bottom 3, that is how tight it is at the bottom. Unlucky to lose last match, they are not scoring that 2nd goal away under Lambert so if scoring first, lay Stoke.
  • Arsenal may be distracted by the Europa League but do not tend historically not to let that affect their league matches. On form, we expect 2+ goals for Arsenal but note Stoke have been tight defensively. Prepare for that. Keep an eye on Arsenal shots stats.

16:00 - Chelsea v Tottenham - 2.42 Chelsea

  • This London derby is too tight for me to call. 2 top 5 teams, Chelsea are losing ground and Tottenham have a real chance of top 3.
  • These derbies tend to be best on the day.

SPANISH LA LIGA

11:00 - Espanyol v Alaves - 2.04 Espanyol

  • 1-0 Espanyol and 1-0 Alaves last 2 head to heads.

Espanyol (14th)

  • Only 1 loss in 8 came last match. During an unbeaten recent run, Espanyol beat Real Madrid and drew with Barcelona
  • 2 draws and 2 wins at home last 4 matches.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home (47% of matches).
  • Only 1 home loss v 8th and lower.

Alaves (16th)

  • Only 1 draw all season.
  • Scored and conceded last 3 matches, all defeats.
  • Conceded in their last 10 away.
  • Only 3 away wins.

Conclusions

  • Espanyol's recent form (draw v Barcelona, win v Real Madrid and Atl Madrid) swings it for me. That, and Alaves are poor away. Lay Alaves if Alaves score first.
  • Take on any late draw given Alaves season long pattern for avoiding draws.

15:15 - Leganes v Valencia - 2.04 Valencia

  • Valencia tend to win head to heads.

Leganes (12th)

  • 2 consecutive home wins.
  • 8 0-0's at halftime at home (57%).
  • Not beaten top 4 but 2 wins v 5th and 6th at home.
  • 11 of 15 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Valencia (4th)

  • 6 wins and a draw last 7 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • More vulnerable away - losses v 2nd, 9th, 11th, 18th.
  • 13 of 18 goals conceded came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Leganes have 2 consecutive wins at home and did beat 5th and 6th but have not beaten top 6.
  • Valencia though are the side who are in the best recent form. They are more vulnerable away but there is a feeling this momentum may continue with 2/3 goals.
  • Valencia tend to score 2nd half. If Leganes score first first half, I would lay them. A hope Leganes continue their struggles v top 4.

17:30 - Eibar v Sociedad - 2.42 Eibar

  • 2-2 and 3-1 Sociedad in the last 2 head to heads.

Eibar (11th)

  • Tend to be losing to good teams lately. Since 20th November, only lost to Atl Madrid, Barcelona, Celta Vigo, Real Madrid and Levante (the latter a shock).
  • 2 consecutive 2-1 losses.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime at home (20% of matches).
  • Only 2 home losses outside of the top 4.

Sociedad (15th)

  • 2 consecutive 2-1 defeats.
  • 4 2-1 scorelines in 5 matches.
  • No win in 10 away.
  • Only 3 away wins were 2-3, 0-2 and 2-4. 2 goals required.

Conclusions

  • Sociedad won 3-1 earlier this season. They are dire away from home though recently. Eibar are solid recently but on a 2-1 losing run.
  • I would take a chance and back 2-1/1-2 here today and hope we see this 2-1 pattern continue.

17:30 - Malaga v Villarreal - 2.26 Villareal

  • 2-0 Villareal last 2 head to heads.

Malaga (20th)

  • Only 3 wins all season yet are not, odds wise, out of this match.
  • Failed to score last 4 matches.
  • 6 defeats and a draw last 7 at home.
  • All defeats v top 6 home and away.

Villareal (5th)

  • 2 consecutive wins includes v Atl Madrid.
  • No away 0-0.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away (40%).
  • Not met bottom 2 away but are unbeaten v bottom 3.

Conclusions

  • I am not sure why the market is so cold about Villareal given Malaga have only 3 wins all season. On that basis alone, Malaga are highly unlikely to win. Is that a sufficient angle to go to war with here?
  • Lay any late 0-0.

19:45 - Atletico Madrid v Deportivo - 1.25 Atl Madrid

  • 1-1 and 0-1 Atl Madrid in the last 2 head to heads.
  • Atl Madrid have a Europa League match on 5th April 2018.

Atl Madrid (2nd)

  • Only 3 losses but 2 came last 3 away matches.
  • 5 consecutive home wins.
  • No defeat in 14 at home.
  • Scored in their last 9 at home.
  • 8 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 100% wins at home v 9th and lower keeping 7/8 clean sheets.
  • 18 of 24 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Depor (19th)

  • Only 1 win in 19 matches.
  • Failed to score in 6 of their last 8 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 10 away and failed to score in their last 4 away.

Conclusions

  • Do not be surprised with a 0-0 at halftime but do expect Atl Madrid to make a breakthrough. That seems to be their habit.....if they are not affected by the upcoming Europa League match (and they don't tend to be).

FRENCH LIGUE 1

16:00 - Lille v Amiens - 2.18 Lille

  • 1-0 Lille and 3-0 Amiens in the last 2 head to heads.

Lille (19th)

  • Only 1 win in 10 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 6 matches.
  • Conceded 2 goals in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Conceded last 10 matches.
  • Only 2 losses at home v 6th and lower.
  • Wins at home v 15th and 17th and 2-2 v 18th at home.
  • 13 of 17 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Amiens (16th)

  • 2 consecutive score draws.
  • Only 2 wins in 15 matches.
  • 1-0 loss away v 17th, 18th and win v 20th away.
  • Conclusions.
  • Both sides are in poor recent form. But Lille meet that part of the league they have a good record in, (wins and a draw).
  • I would take a chance on Lille here although this looks a relegation six pointer.
  • Note Lille tend to score 2nd half and I would expect a goal if they have not scored by halftime.
  • Lay any Amiens lead. A risk as they beat 17th and 18th 0-1 away but Lille have scored in their last 6 matches.

16:00 - Strasbourg v Metz - 1.9 Strasbourg

  • 3-0 Metz last head to head.

Strasbourg (15th)

  • Only 2 wins in 12 matches came at home.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in 10 of their last 12 matches.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • 3 consecutive wins at home v the bottom 4 augurs well against bottom.

Metz (20th)

  • 3 draws in 4 matches but no win in 6 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 9 and last 8 away.
  • No win in 6 away.
  • Only 2 away wins.

Conclusions

  • Strictly on form, Strasbourg should feel confident having a 3/3 win at home v the bottom 4. They play bottom today. Metz are drawing and you feel a score draw is best case scenario for them if the form plays out.
  • Lay any Metz lead. It sounds strange to side with Strasbourg with only 2 wins in 12 and conceding 2+ goals in 10 of their last 12 matches.

16:00 - Caen v Montpellier - 2.7 Montpellier

  • Really unappealing odds here but as I am ahead of schedule I will try and research all French Ligue 1 matches.
  • 3 consecutive Montpellier wins in head to heads.

Caen (13th)

  • Only 3 wins in 16 matches.
  • 3 defeats in their last 4 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • Are unbeaten at home v 5th, 6th and 8th.

Montpellier (7th)

  • 5 consecutive draws, sees 4 consecutive score draws.
  • Only 3 losses since 16th September 2017.
  • Only 1 loss in 12 away was v Paris St Germain.
  • Only 2 away l.osses v teams below them in the league.

Conclusions

  • I am not sure why Montpellier are not strong favourites here. Maybe their bitty away form? On recent form certainly, Montpellier should not lose today against a team like Caen with only 3 wins in 16 matches. Caen though are unbeaten at home v 5th, 6th and 8th.
  • Montpellier though have only lost to the imperious Paris St Germain in their last 12 away matches.
  • Ordinarily with a 2.7 favourite, it's a sign to leave the match alone. Which way do you fly here?

16:00 - Nantes v St Etienne - 2.3 Nantes

  • 2 consecutive 1-1 draws in head to heads.

Nantes (6th)

  • Only 1 loss in 6 matches was a 0-1.
  • 1-0-1-1-1 scored in recent matches.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home (35%).
  • All home wins came v 12th and lower.
  • Failed to score 2 goals at home v 13th and higher.

St Etienne (9th)

  • 3 draws in 4 matches. Unbeaten in 8 matches.
  • 2 wins and 2 draws recently away.
  • Not beaten a top 8 side away.
  • Scored 2 goals only once away.
  • 8 of 10 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • A tough match to call. It has 1-0/0-1 or 1-1 written all over it.
  • If 0-0 at halftime I would take a chance and lay the 0-0 in the 2nd half given St Etienne have scored 80% of their away goals in the 2nd half.
  • Both sides have trouble scoring that 2nd goal. Lay the first goal scorer?

20:00 - Lyon v Toulouse - 1.37 Lyon

  • Lyon tend to win head to heads.

Lyon (4th)

  • 3 draws and 2 wins ends a run of 3 consecutive defeats.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime in 17.
  • 1-2-0-1-1- scored recently at home.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 9 wins a loss and a draw home and away v 13th and lower.

Toulouse (17th)

  • 4 draws in their last 5 matches. Only 2 wins since 16th December were 1-0 wins.
  • 4 0-0;s at halftime away (27%).
  • Have lost away to all top 7 they have played so far.

Conclusions

  • Lyon are finding hard to score their usual 2 goals of late. Is this terminal? Because a team like Toulouse tend to concede 2 goals or more v top 7 away.
  • Lyon have failed to score only 4 times so I'd expect a goal from them. 2-1 does appeal today if they can break the recent poor home scoring run.
  • Really we should lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. It was 0-0 last home match but only 2 0-0's at halftime at home for Lyon all season.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 - Werder Bremen v Frankfurt - 2.46 Werder Bremen

  • 2-2 and 2-1 Frankfurt last 2 head to heads.

Werder Bremen (12th)

  • 5 wins in 7 matches.
  • 2 wins, 3 draws, 3 wins in recent home matches.
  • Not played 3rd to 6th at home.
  • All home wins bar 1 have come v teams below them in the league.

Frankfurt (4th)

  • 3 consecutive away losses.
  • No 0-0 at halftime in 14 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 10 away matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Unbeaten away v 11th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Werder are vastly improved under new manager. Slight concerns though that their wins at home tend to come v teams below them in the league.
  • Frankfrut on form should not lose today despite the fact they have 3 consecutive away losses.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

17:00 - Mainz v Mgladbach - 2.64 Mainz

  • 1-1 and 0-3 Mgladbach in the last 2 head to heads.

Mainz (16th)

  • Only 2 wins in 15 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Wins v 5th, 8th, 11th, 17th and 18th at home.
  • Scored in all bar 1 at home v 4th and lower.

Mgladbach (9th)

  • Only 1 win in 8 matches.
  • Conceded 2 goals in last 3 matches.
  • No draw in 11 away.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Inconsistent away - losses v bottom 5, wins v 11th-13th away.

Conclusions

  • I would lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on the away side.
  • Mgladbach are inconsistent away so it's tough to trust or to read them. I'll stick with the goal before halftime. Mainz should score (only 3 failed to score matches).

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

11:30 - VVV v Twente - 2.4 VVV

  • 1-2 VVV last head to head.

VVV (12th)

  • 4 draws and 2 losses last 6 matches.
  • Scored in their last 5 at home.
  • Unbeaten v teams below them in the league, albeit 3 draws and a win.
  • 16 of 23 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Twente (18th)

  • What a fall from grace! Bottom of the league.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 6 matches.
  • 4 consecutive away defeats.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 10 matches.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime away (50% of matches).
  • 10 losses and a draw away v top 14 teams.
  • 18 of 25 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Both sides concede heavily 2nd half so lay any halftime 0-0 you see in the 2nd half.
  • Nothing in Twente's recent form suggests a win from them. They are scoring and conceding so lay Twente if Twente scores first.

13:30 - Groningen v Ajax - 1.25 Ajax

  • Ajax tend to win head to heads.

Groningen (13th)

  • Only 2 wins in 14 matches.
  • Only 1 loss in 8 home matches.
  • No defeat in 6 at home.
  • Scored without winning v top 3 home and away.
  • 3-3 and 1-1 v top 3 at home.
  • Only 2 home defeats.
  • 17 of 25 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Ajax (2nd)

  • Only 4 defeats.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away.
  • All wins bar a single draw home and away v 10th and lower.

Conclusions

  • We may see a Groningen fight today. They score v top 3 and have score drawn the top 3 at home. Ajax should not lose but a draw cannot be discounted.
  • With the return of the Ajax number 1 attacker goals have returned. 9 goals scored in their last 2 matches.
  • Logic suggests we lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market but Ajax away have had 42.9% 0-0's at halftime.

13:30 - Heracles v Heerenveen - 2.32 Heerenveen

  • 4-1 Heracles and 1-1 last 2 head to heads.

Heracles (9th)

  • 3 wins and a 0-0 last 4 matches.
  • A draw and 3 consecutive wins at home.
  • Scored in their last 14 at home.
  • Only home defeats v top 4.

Heerenveen (10th)

  • Scored and conceded in their last 7 away.
  • Only 1 loss v 8th and lower away.

Conclusions

  • Tough to split these 2 teams. What I do see is a 2-1 occur a lot which suggests backing 2-1/ 1-2 pre match and hoping for a cash out opportunity in-play.

15:45 - Feyenoord v Excelsior - 1.14 Feyenoord

  • 3-0 Excelsior and 1-0 Feyenoord in the last 2 head to heads.

Feyenoord (4th)

  • 4 losses and 4 wins in the last 8 matches.
  • 2 consecutive wins 2-1 and 3-4.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Scored in their last 10 at home.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home (43%).
  • Only 1 loss v 3rd and lower at home.
  • 1-1-2-1-0-3-1-1-1 scored at home v top 12.

Excelsior (11th)

  • 2 losses in 3 came at home.
  • 3 consecutive away wins.
  • No draw in 12 away.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Have beaten 2nd and 6th away.

Conclusions

  • The value is in opposing a Feyenoord lead. Why? They have scored 1-1-2-1-0-3-1-1-1 v top 12. If they struggle to score that 2nd again, this team are well worth laying. That's the value call. But note they have scored 2 and 4 goals in their last 2 matches so may be over that goal struggling at home?
  • You will get low odds if Feyenoord lead and it is a lay to noting. Remember Excelsior have 3 consecutive away wins.
  • Excelsior have not had a 0-0 at halftime away. If you want to lay the 0-0. Note Feyenoord had 43% at home.