I was a goal away from a £4800 payout on Atl Madrid last night as 10 men fought back from 2-0 down to draw 2-2. (Check out the screenshot @drtclub Twitter). I made a tenth of that on the draw. It is a reminder, rather like St Mirren, that 'it all comes at the end'. The BIG money comes post 85th minute from the most unlikeliest of comebacks, and importantly I think, from teams CAPABLE of pulling off such comebacks!
Girona were layable at 1.03 odds yesterday, and a successful lay at those odds. It is speculating on such unlikely comebacks, and with the minimal risk which comes from 1.03 odds, that produces the big money.
On to today, and I'm afraid I am going to have to cancel the order for Ferrero Rocher I had in, if Madrid won.
I'll be tweeting as early as I can, but will say 13:30 for starters.. We captured some good trades from places such as South Korea and Japan, prior to the Premiership. The elite leagues are below. Please remember that there are plenty of other leagues to plunder.
11:30 - Excelsior v Feyenoord - 1.47 Feyenoord
- 2-4 and 3-0 Excelsior then Feyenoord has visited. The 3-0 was a big shock given Feyenoord tend to give Excelsior a 3 or 4 goal spanking.
- There have been +2.5 goals in 9/11 Excelsior home matches against top-six teams and in 11/14 Feyenoord away matches against middle-third teams.
- Feyenoord have won 12/18 away matches.
- Both sides won 2-1 in their openers.
- Excelsior came 12th last season and gave that 3-0 win on their 2nd last match of the season. They only lost 2 matches v top 10 at home, 1-3 v 3rd and 4th.and drew 1-1 with Ajax at home.
- All Feyenoord's 4 season losses came away from home and in 3 of them they failed to score. If they score today, the suggestion is that they will not necessarily lose.
- It depends what Excelsior we see today. They seem to be able to give the big guns a game at home.
13:30 - Utrecht v Willem II - 1.52 Utrecht
- Utrecht has won the last 3 head to heads.
- Utrecht have scored first in 12/14 home matches while Willem II have lost 8/11 away matches against top-six teams.
- Willem II have conceded first in 9/11 away matches against top-six teams.
- A solid 4th last season for Utrecht saw them end the season with 7 wins in 8 matches.
- At home they were unbeaten outside of the top 9.
- Willem II finished 13th and only won 2 away v top 11 teams.
- 0-3 away win Utrecht and 1-2 home loss Willem II.
- As long as Utrecht are not weakened by any transfer activity (Dutch teams tend to be selling clubs), then I would expect a positive home result.
15:45 - Breda v PSV - 1.34 PSV
- NAC lost 4-1 in their opener with PSV 3-2 winners over AZ Alkmaar.
- Breda look newly promoted.
- Promoted teams have conceded first in 53% of home matches against Big Two teams since 2012-13 while PSV have won 10/10 away matches against promoted teams.
- PSV have had W/W double results in 7/8 away matches against promoted teams.
- PSV only lost to one team last season. Away v bottom 6 (and assuming Breda struggle), PSV kept 5 clean sheets.
- We could have a win to nil here.
15:45 - Sparta Rotterdam v Zwolle - 2.56 Sparta
- The odds suggest a match with equal chances for either side.
- 2-3 Zwolle earlier this year.
- There have been +3.5 goals in 4/7 Sparta R'dam home matches against bottom-six teams and +2.5 goals in 4/7 Sparta R'dam such matches.
- Zwolle have lost 8/12 away matches.
- 3-0 loss for Sparta in their opener. 4-2 Zwolle win.
- 15th and 14th last season, these 2 may see a relegation battle this season.
- Sparta scored 2 goals at home in 5 of 6 matches v bottom 6 last season.
- Both teams scored when Zwolle met the bottom 4 away.
- Expectation for goals today.
14:30 - Freiburg - Eintracht Frankfurt - 2.84 Freiburg
- Market very off-putting here. They haven't a clue!
- 3 consecutive Freiburg wins in head to heads.
- Freiburg have won 4/5 home matches against middle-third teams while E. Frankfurt have lost 10/10 away matches against top-half teams.
- Frankfurt have lost by two or more goals in 11/14 away matches against top-half teams.
- 7th last season, a good season for Freiburg Outside of the top 4, Freiburg lost only 2 matches.
- Only 4 Frankfurt wins away last season, 3 were to nil.They lost all v top 7, failing to score in 6 of those.
- On last season's form, a nod to the home side.
17:00 - Mgladbach v FC Koln - 1.91 Mgladbach
- 1-2 Koln and 2-3 Mgladbach last 2 head to heads.
- There have been +2.5 goals in 8/11 B. M'gladbach home matches against top-six teams and in 9/12 FC Koln away matches.
- FC Koln have lost the first half in 8/11 away matches against top-half teams.
- 9th last year for Mgladbach.Brilliant at home outside of the top 5 where they lost only 1 match.
- FC Koln though were 5th last season. Only 3 away wins for them last season but they scored and conceded in 12 aways.
- 2 teams with reasonable seasons. Tough to get an angle here. Both teams to score?
13:30 - Huddersfield v Newcastle - 2.52 Huddersfield
- Promoted teams have conceded first in 67% of away matches against promoted teams since 2012-13 and promoted teams have lost 65% of away matches against promoted teams since 2012-13.
- There have been -2.5 goals in 54% of matches between two promoted teams since 2012-13.
- watching brief for these 2. I am sure Newcastle's sights are lowered here, after a rather inevitable loss to Tottenham. Huddersfield surprised many but we have to determine whether that was an anomoly or whether they are the 'surprise package'.
16:00 - Tottenham v Chelsea - 2.14 Tottenham
- London Derby and derbies can be a law unto themselves.
- 0-0 and 2-0 for Tottenham when playing at home, well this is a new home - Wem-ber-ley.
- Spurs have won by two or more goals in 6/9 home matches against top-six teams while Chelsea have lost the first half in 6/9 away matches against top-six teams.
- Spurs have won 10/10 home matches.
- Chelsea so nearly levelled it v Burnley but faced an uphill task, not only with 9 men, but Costa gone and Hazard injured.
- Chelsea are already out to 11 for the title from 4 pre Burnley. I think this is a game of greater import to Chelsea who cannot go 2 games into the season without picking something up. Should they lose today, I will be backing them in the title race as their odds will rise yet again.
ITALIAN SERIA A
17:00 - Atalanta v Roma - 2.32 Roma
- Atalanta are unbeaten in the last 5 head to heads where both teams tend to score. With Salah gone from Roma, their task is made tougher.
- £113 million of talent transfered out of Roma.
- There have been +2.5 goals in 7/10 Roma away matches and +3.5 goals in 10/20 Roma away matches.
- Atalanta have won 11/16 home matches.
- 4th spot last season Atalanta. Only 2 2017 Seria A losses. They are going to be a force this season if that form continues. A draw and 2 wins at home v the top 3 last season.
- Roma's title hopes slipped with the 5 away losses v top 10 last season.
- An intriguing match with Atalanta more than a force at home. Dare we lay Roma if Roma score first?
19:45 - Lazio v SPAL - 1.29 Lazio
- Lazio have won 8/9 home matches against promoted teams while promoted teams have lost 59% of away matches against top-six teams since 2012-13.
- Promoted teams have conceded first in 66% of away matches against top-six teams since 2012-13.
- Only 1 home loss for Lazio at home last season v teams 8th and lower.
- SPAL are another of those unknown promoted sides. The market is emphatic (as emphatic as it was with Girona v Atl Madrid.....).
19:45 - Sassuolo v Genoa - 2.16 Sassuolo
- Sassuolo won the last 2 head to head to nil.
- Genoa have lost 10/12 away matches and they have conceded first in 9/12 away matches.
- There have been +2.5 goals in 7/10 Sassuolo home matches.
- 4 wins and a loss v bottom 5 at home last season for Sassuolo (where Genoa resides).
- Genoa lost 12 and drew 1 away v top 13 last season. Based on last season, and head to heads, expectation is for Sassuolo to get a positive result.
19:45 - Udinese v Chievo - 2.12 Udinese
- 2 0-0's in the last 3 head to heads.
- There have been +2.5 goals in 8/9 Udinese home matches against middle-third teams and in 7/8 Chievo away matches against middle-third teams.
- Chievo have lost 7/10 away matches against middle-third teams.
- 13th and 14th from last season. Likely strugglers this?
- all wins bar 4 for Udinese came v teams 15th and lower. Clearly on this basis they will struggle against all bar the strugglers!
- 5 Chievo away wins v 12th and lower last season so they will be targeting teams such as Udinese as teams they can get a result from.
19:45 - Crotone v AC Milan - 1.6 AC Milan
- Crotone scored first in the last 2 head to heads without winning.
- Crotone have scored first in 8/13 home matches.
- There have been +2.5 goals in 13/19 AC Milan away matches against bottom-six teams.
- 4th bottom last season from Crotone.They were unbeaten v 5th, 6th and 7th at home last season with both teams scoring. Very anomolous considering they lost at home to top 4 and to 8th and 9th.
- More like the Milan of old, albeit only 6th last season.
- Only 6 defeats home and away outside of the top 4.
- I am with Milan today and hope Crotone continue to score first.
19:45 - Inter v Fiorentina - 1.54 Inter
- 1-4 Fior, 2-1 Fior, 4-2 Inter and 5-4 Fior, this Inter side showed (albeit in pre season) that they could be strengthened this season.
- 3 £20 million + purchases suggests Inter means business. They beat Bayern and Chelsea in the International Champions Cup (albeit glorified friendlies, used to suck cash out of the devoted).
- There have been +2.5 goals in 8/9 Inter Milan home matches against top-half teams and in 8/9 Fiorentina away matches against top-half teams.
- Fiorentina have lost the first half in 9/13 away matches.
- 7th last season for Inter. only 2 defeats v top 9 at home last season. They scored and conceded in 12 of 14 matches v top 14 at home. Both teams to score was a very strong Inter pattern last season.
- Fiorentina failed to beat a top 10 team away.
- No 0-0 for Inter last season.
19:45 - Bologna v Torino - 2.36 Torino
- 3 Torino wins ended with a Bologna win last head to head.
- Bologna have won by two or more goals in 5/10 home matches against middle-third teams.
- There have been +2.5 goals in 13/20 Torino FC away matches.
- 15th last season, too near the relegation zone for Bologna's liking.
- They were excellent v 9th and lower at home (Torino were 9th and Bol beat them).
- Only 1 loss at home v 9th and lower.
- 14 both teams to score matches away for Torino last season.
- Only 2 losses home and away v teams 11th and lower.
- The market cannot split these 2 today.
19:45 - Sampdoria v Benevento - 1.69 Samp
- No head to heads. Newly promoted Benevento.
- Sampdoria have won 7/11 home matches against promoted teams while promoted teams have lost 59% of away matches against middle-third teams since 2012-13.
- Sampdoria have won by two or more goals in 6/11 home matches against promoted teams.
- Top 10 Samp last season and at home, only 1 loss v 7th and lower suggests they should cope with Benevento.
- But if ever there was a story of the weekend it is that newly promoted are unknowns and they can surprise! Ask Twente, ask Atl Madrid!
FRENCH LIGUE 1
14:00 - Lille v Caen - 1.7 Lille
- 6 consecutive Lille head to head wins, some have been 1-0 though.
- There have been -2.5 goals in 7/9 Lille home matches against bottom-six teams and in 9/11 SM Caen away matches.
- Lille have drawn the first half in 6/9 home matches against bottom-six teams.
- 3-0 win and 3-0 loss for Lille this season.
- Caen has lost 1-0 in both matches.
- 11th for Lille last season and they won 5 of 6 matches at home v bottom 6 teams (where Caen were).
- Caen won 0-1 away on 3 occasions v 8th, 10th and 13th last season, their only away wins.
- 1-0 crops up a lot doesn't it, or am I just pattern seeking? It might signal a match tighter than the odds suggests. We saw yesterday though that basing assumptions on last year's form, in lieu of this year's, can be misleading.
20:00 - Paris St-G v Toulouse - 1.11 PSG
- 2-0 Toulouse and 0-0 in the last 2 head to heads suggests laying PSG here at 1.11 odds as the value play.
- That does not factor in Neymar.
- Paris St-G have won by two or more goals in 8/13 home matches against middle-third teams while Toulouse have lost by two or more goals in 10/14 trips to top-six teams.
- Paris St-G have won 8/11 home matches.
- 2 wins to nil thus far for PSG. Toulouse's 2 goals v Monaco may signal some fight (albeit they lost).
SPANISH PRIMERA LIGA
17:15 - Athletic Bilbao v Getafe - 1.52 Ath
- 6 consecutive Bilbao wins in head to heads.
- Ath. Bilbao have won 13/18 home matches while promoted teams have conceded first in 63% of away matches against top half non-Big Two teams since 2012-13.
- Promoted teams have had +2.5 goals in 50% of away matches against top half non-Big Two teams since 2012-13.
- 7th last season, Bilbao only lost to the first 2 at home so this, I suggest, is where the foundation for their season will be. All wins bar 4 draws at home outside of the top 2.
- Getafe are newly promoted. We saw yesterday these newly promoted sides putting in some excellent performances, most notably Girona v Atl Madrid.
19:15 - Barcelona v Betis - 1.22 Barca
- A Neymar-less Barcelona has already lost twice to Real Madrid albeit in the glorified friendly that is the Super Cup. It is advantage Real Madrid in Spain you feel.
- Barcelona at home tend to score 3 goals at least v Betis.
- What I could do with £222 million eh? Barcelona has not really splashed the cash yet.
- Barcelona have won 8/9 home matches against bottom-half teams while Real Betis have lost 10/14 away matches.
- Real Betis have conceded first in 10/14 away matches.
21:15 - Deportivo v Real Madrid - 1.33 Real Madrid
- Real Madrid tend to win head to heads but Depor has chipped in with 2 goals in each of the last 2 head to heads. More today please.
- Deportivo have had L/L double results in 5/6 home matches against Big Two teams while Real Madrid have had W/W double results in 9/12 away matches against bottom-half teams.
- Deportivo have lost 5/6 home matches against Big Two teams.
- 16th last season, Depor did beat Barca 2-1 at home and scored and conceded at home v all top 4 teams.
- Real Madrid scored in every match last season and every match was over 1.5 goals. They look the stronger of the big 2 this season.
- This 'scoring in every match' angle, if seen to its conclusion, presented some great trading opportunities last season.