Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

DRT Daily Tips Bulletin, January 21, 2018

I would like to do a Facebook video live chat at https://www.facebook.com/groups/288630934852757/ but I am aware that not every DRT member has joined the DRT Facebook page. I thought the webinar live chat style added greater clarity than the written live chat. To give others a chance, perhaps I can start these live video chats next weekend. The traditional live chat will begin at 14:00 today here at delayreacttrade.com and be broadcast via Twitter @drtclub. Let's make a date next weekend for a DRT facebook live video chat. So join the DRT Facebook page in the interim.
See you at 14:00 for a traditional live chat today.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

16:00 - Southampton v Tottenham - 1.69 Tottenham

  • 2-1 and 5-2 Tottenham in 2017 head to heads.

Southampton (17th)

  • Only 4 wins.
  • Only 2 clean sheets in 18 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 5 at home.
  • No win in 10 matches.
  • No win v top 8.

Tottenham (5th)

  • 6 wins in 8 matches. Only Man City has beaten them in the last 9 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Scored in their last 11 matches.
  • No away 0-0.
  • Undefeated home and away v 9th and lower.

Conclusions

  • The only weakness I see in Tottenham is Harry Kane's absence. If he plays his is the goal threat to ensure Southampton continue to fail to keep clean sheets.
  • 0-2 up v Watford and the Saints blew it. Tottenham are superb in attack, have scored in 11 and 6 wins in 8. I cannot see the Southampton threat which will give the home side 3 points.
  • Saints are scoring and conceding at home and are eminently layable if scoring first.

FRENCH LIGUE 1

14:00 - Nice v St Etienne - 1.67 Nice

  • 4 Nice wins ended with a St Etienne win to nil last head to head.

Nice (6th)

  • Only 1 loss in 10 matches.
  • 4 wins in 5 at home, 3 of them were 1-0.
  • No draw in 7 at home.
  • Only 1 loss at home v 13th and lower.
  • 11 of 16 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

St Etienne (14th)

  • 6 defeats in 7 away.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 5 away.

Conclusions

  • Nice should be eyeing a continuation of their solid recent form today. 1-0 wins, whilst giving 3 points, are a dangerous habit. With St. Etienne conceding 2 goals regularly, Nice may get that 2 goal cushion today.
  • There is nothing in St E's form to suggest a challenge.

16:00 - Monaco v Metz - 1.23 Monaco

  • 6 consecutive Monaco wins to nil in head to heads.

Monaco (4th)

  • 4 wins and 2 draws in the last 6 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Scored in their last 11 at home.
  • 6 1-0 scorelines at halftime at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Only home loss v PSG.
  • 3-2 v 18th and 19th at home. Struggles v strugglers?

Metz (20th)

  • As I said earlier in the week, a new manager coincides with excellent form.
  • Draw, Win, Win, Draw, Win in their last 5 matches.
  • 3-3-1-3 goals scored, 2 in home wins.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.

Conclusions

  • There is a niggle and that is 'new manager' syndrome' for Metz. No coincidence that they are unbeaten in 5 matches.
  • Given Monaco have struggled in 2 3-2 wins v bottom 3, the value angle (not necessarily the logical angle given Monaco have only lost to 1st in the league at home) is is laying Monaco particularly if they lead 2-0! Metz have scored 3 goals in 3 of their last 4 matches, albeit v lesser lights, so there is a cogent argument that Metz are not the write-offs the market think that they are.

20:00 - Lyon v Paris St-G - 1.36 PSG

  • This is 1st and 2nd and could be a closer match than the odds suggest.
  • 4 consecutive PSG head to head wins though.

Lyon (2nd)

  • Only 2 defeats, one came v PSG.
  • 5 wins and a draw in the last 6 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches, includes v PSG.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.

PSG (1st)

  • 10 wins in 11 matches.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • Scored in their last 14 matches.
  • No draw in 11 matches.
  • Unbeaten at halftime this season, one of a rare breed including Real Madrid.
  • 2-2 v 3rd , 1-2 v 4th away so may be given a game by Lyon.

Conclusions

  • This could be a tight match between the top 2 but PSG look just too good.
  • I would hope Lyon score first and would lay Lyon if Lyon scored first. They did fail to score last meeting with PSG though.
  • 1-2 looks like a scoreline that could be tradable today.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 - Bayern Munich v Werder Bremen - 1.14 Bayern

  • Bayern Munich tend to win head to heads.
  • I would not be as immediately dismissable of Werder Bremen as the market has been. They are under new management and it tells.

Bayern (1st)

  • 10 wins in 11 matches.
  • 3 1-0 wins in their last 4 matches.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • Scored in their last 15 matches.
  • 5 consecutive home wins.
  • 6 2-0 scorelines at halftime at home.
  • All clean sheets home and away v 13th and lower.

Werder Bremen (16th)

  • 2 consecutive score draws.
  • 8 matches in under new manager saw the only 3 wins of the season. 3 defeats away though.
  • Beat Dortmund 1-2 away.

Conclusions

  • A vastly improved Werder Bremen under their new manager could be more competitive than the market suggests.
  • If Bayern Munich are in one of their 1-0 win moods, I would lay them at short odds, particularly if 1-0 late on. Remember Werder brought the Hoff from 0-1 to 1-1 last match.

17:00 - Schalke v Hannover - 1.53 Schalke

  • 3 Schalke lead wins ended with a 1-0 Hannover last 4 head to heads.

Schalke (3rd)

  • Only 1 loss in 12 matches came last match.
  • Scored and conceded last 6 matches losing only one.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Scored in their last 12 matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • 7 1-0 scorelines at halftime at home.
  • Only beaten by 1st in the league at home.
  • 7 of 10 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Hannover (10th)

  • Scored and conceded in 10 of their last 12 matches.
  • 5 defeats in their last 6 away matches.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • Conceded in their last 8 away.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in their last 4 away matches.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Lost 3-1 to 1st, 2-1 to 2nd and 2-1 to 6th away.
  • 8 of 9 goals scored away came 2nd half.
  • 12 of 17 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • The odds look right. Hannover may score but continue their 3-1 or 2-1 defeat pattern v top 6 sides away. And Schalke are scoring 2 goals recently, and have scored in their last 12 matches.
  • 7 1-0 scorelines at halftime v 5 0-0's at halftime for Hannover. I would lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on Schalke but I would wait to the 20th + minute marker.

ITALIAN SERIA A

11:30 - Atalanta v Napoli - 2.06 Napoli

  • Both sides have shared wins in the last 4 head to heads.

Atalanta (7th)

  • Only 4 defeats in 18 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored in their last 9 at home.
  • No 0-0.
  • Not beaten a top 4 side home or away but at home 2-2 v 2nd and 3-3 v 4th.
  • 8 of 11 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Napoli (1st)

  • Only 1 loss came at home to Juventus.
  • 9 wins and a 0-0 away.
  • Conceded 2 goals only once away and still won!

Conclusions

  • On form Atalanta are struggling to beat top 4 sides. If we assume this, then score draw seems best case scenario for them today.
  • I would have to oppose any Atalanta lead today in the hope Napoli continue their excellent away form.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. If Atalanta are likely to concede it'd be first half.

14:00 - Bologna v Benevento - 1.72 Bologna

  • 0-1 Bologna the last time these 2 met.

Bologna (12th)

  • 4 defeats in 5 matches.
  • Only 1 win in 6 at home.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • No 0-0 at halftime in 11 matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • Scored and conceded at home v 16th, 17th and 18th, drawing, winning and losing. Beat bottom 2 away.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals at home.
  • 8 of 12 goals scored at home came first half.

Benevento (20th)

  • 2 consecutive wins now.
  • 9 consecutive away defeats.
  • Only 3 goals scored away compared with 19 goals conceded.

Conclusions

  • It does look like another defeat for Benevento away. Bologna though are not in the best of form. Still they beat the bottom 2 away from home so logically must be fancied with home advantage.
  • Based on Bologna, lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

14:00 - Lazio v Chievo - 1.26 Lazio

  • 0-1 Chievo and 1-2 Lazio in the last 2 head to heads.

Lazio (4th)

  • Only 3 defeats.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored in their last 7 at home.
  • All wins bar a 0-0 home and away v 11th and lower.
  • 9 of 10 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
  • Immobile a key striker. He has scored 4 times as many goals as Lazio's 2nd highest scorer.

Chievo (13th)

  • Only 1 win in 11 matches.
  • Failed to score in their last 3 away, 2 consecutive 1-0 defeats.
  • Losses away v 2nd, 3rd and 6th suggest struggles v 4th.

Conclusions

  • Lazio have struggled at home v teams 10th and higher but it seems 11th and lower is easily within their compass.
  • Lazio should score first and even lead at halftime given they concede the vast majority of home goals 2nd half.
  • Chievo tend to concede 3+ goals in defeat v top 6 so should really not land a blow today.

14:00 - Sampdoria v Fiorentina - 2.46 Fiorentina

  • 3 consecutive league score draws ended with a Sampdoria win last 4 head to heads.
  • There have been +2.5 goals in 7/9 Sampdoria home matches against top-half teams and +3.5 goals in 5/8 Sampdoria such matches.
  • Fiorentina have lost 12/16 away matches against top-six teams.

Sampdoria (6th)

  • 5 defeats, a draw and a win last 7 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • 2 defeats in 3 at home were the only losses at home this season.
  • No draw in 9 at home.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Failed to score 2 goals at least in only 2 matches at home this season.
  • 15 of 22 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Fiorentina (8th)

  • 6 draws and 2 wins in their last 8 matches.
  • 1-1, 1-1, 0-0, 0-1 last 4 aways.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • 5 consecutive 0-0's at halftime.
  • v 5th-12th away no match played yet so a gap in form.
  • Not beaten a top 7 side yet.

Conclusions

  • I like Sampdoria's home form and if they can score 2 goals at least again, then Fiorentina will be in trouble.
  • Note any 0-0 at halftime. I would feel confident in 2nd half goals. 5 0-0's halftime Samp. no 0-0 fulltime Samp at home.
  • I would look to Lay Fiorentina if Fiorentina scored first.

14:00 - Sassuolo v Torino - 2.6 Torino

  • 5-3 Torino and 3-0 Torino in the last 2 head to heads.
  • There have been -2.5 goals in 6/10 Sassuolo home matches against middle-third teams while Torino FC have drawn the first half in 7/13 away matches.
  • Torino FC have conceded first in 9/17 away matches.

Sassuolo (15th)

  • Only 1 loss in 5 matches.
  • 2 consecutive home wins includes an impressive 1-0 v Inter Milan.
  • Yet again we see sudden improvement and there is good reason. A new manager for Sassuolo for 6 matches.
  • We see, under new manager, 3-0 loss, 2-1 win, 0-1 win, 1-0 win, 1-1 (v Roma!!!), 1-0 loss (80th minute goal).
  • I end the research there as the new manager has made such a difference.

Torino (10th)

  • Only 4 defeats.
  • New manager only 1 match. I find that strange given the.....only 4 defeats.
  • 7 draws in 10 matches a reason for the old manager's leaving?
  • Torino remain unbeaten home and away v teams below them in the league.4 score draws and a 0-1 win away.

Conclusions

  • A muddling match thanks to new management for both sides.
  • It is quite clear that Sassuolo's new manager has worked from the back. Back 0-0 pre match and hope that this defensive set up works at least until halftime?
  • Other than that new manager for both sides could signal a match hard to predict.

14:00 - Udinese v Spal - 1.76 Udinese

  • 3-2 when these 2 met in 2017 to SPAL, 2-0 to 2-2 to 3-2.

Udinese (9th)

  • Another case of a new manager 7 games in and.....5 wins and a draw last 6 matches. Did score and concede in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • 0-1 v Napoli, 2-0 v Benevento, 4-0 v Hellas, at home under new manager. Spal do, for me, mirror the likes of Benevento and Hellas.
  • And therein ends the research as we have another new manager.

SPAL (17th)

  • Only 3 wins.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Conceded 2 goals at least in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 9 away matches.
  • Not beaten a top 13 side away.

Conclusions

  • Udinese look far better under new management and I think that can continue today.SPAL are conceding 2 goals with regularity.
  • Udinese look tough to score against at home. We may not see a trade here if Udinese keep clean sheets at home under new management.

14:00 - Verona v Crotone - 2.1 Verona

  • Crotone have conceded first in 10/10 away matches and they have lost 4/6 away matches against bottom-six teams.
  • There have been +2.5 goals in 7/10 Verona home matches.

Verona (19th)

  • Only 3 wins.
  • 3 consecutive defeats.
  • No draw in 7 at home.
  • 2 wins at home v 11th and 20th.
  • 2 draws away v 17th and 18th.

Crotone (18th)

  • 7 losses in 8 matches.
  • Failed to score in 6 of their last 8 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • No draw in 12 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 10 away matches.
  • 1-1 draw away v 17th and 0-0 at home v 19th and 2-0 at home v 20th.

Conclusions

  • Oh Lordy! How do we trust these 2? Lay the late draw?
  • If Verona are drawing away v 17th and 18th, then surely they will find the task easier with home advantage? I am, admittedly clutching at straws.

SPANISH LA LIGA

11:00 - Alaves v Leganes - 2.3 Alaves

  • 1-0 Leganes in the last head to head.
  • There have been -2.5 goals in 11/17 Alaves home matches while Leganes have drawn the first half in 5/6 away matches against bottom-six teams.
  • There have been -2.5 goals in 5/6 Leganes away matches against bottom-six teams.

Alaves (17th)

  • No draw.
  • New manager for Alaves 6 matches in. 4 wins and 2 away losses v Alt Madrid and Ath Bilbao - no disgrace there.
  • 3 consecutive home wins to nil, 2-0; 1-0; 1-0.
  • And that is where the research will end given the new manager syndrome.

Leganes (13th)

  • Only 2 wins in 9 matches came at home.
  • 5 losses and a 0-0 last 6 away.
  • v teams below them away, 0-1, 0-0, 1-0 loss, 0-2, 0-2.

Conclusions

  • I would look to 0-0 here at least until halftime. The new manager for Alaves has them keeping clean sheets and looking to nick a 1-0.
  • Leganes tend towards clean sheets themselves v teams below them and ....1-0 wins are the norm there.
  • I tend to back 0-0 pre match at its highest odds and try to cash out at halftime if lucky enough to see a 0-0 then.

15:15 - Real Madrid v Deportivo - 1.15 Real Madrid

  • Real have scored 3+ goals in each of the last 3 head to heads.
  • Real Madrid have won 10/10 home matches against bottom-six teams while Deportivo have lost 5/7 away matches against Big Two teams.
  • Real Madrid have had W/W double results in 7/8 home matches against bottom-six teams.

Real Madrid (4th)

  • Is Zidane still in a job?
  • 2 consecutive home defeats. No win in 3 is quite unheard of for Real Madrid. Look, if you wish, back through their form and see the last time this occured!
  • Real have failed to score in their last 2 at home.
  • Unbeaten at halftime.
  • All wins v bottom 4 and a chance for redemption today and a promise of 2/3 goals.
  • 13 of 19 goals scored at home came first half.

Deportivo (18th)

  • Only 1 away win.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Not beaten a top 8 team.

Conclusions

  • This is d-day for Real Madrid. Expect them to score (they did to be fair dominate Villareal). Expect a win to end this horrendous run (relatively speaking).
  • 2/3 goals should be expected. Zidane is thanking the fixture list for bringing up a home match v bottom 4.
  • Real Madrid remain unbeaten at halftime so if Depor score first and early, lay them in the halftime market.

17:30 - Sociedad v Celta Vigo - 1.94 Sociedad

  • 2-2 and 2-3 Sociedad in the last 2 head to heads.
  • There have been +3.5 goals in 8/11 Real Sociedad home matches and +2.5 goals in 9/10 Celta Vigo away matches against bottom-half teams.
  • There have been +2.5 goals in 10/12 Real Sociedad home matches.

Sociedad (15th)

  • Only 1 win in 8 was v a poor away side in Sevilla. Not form to appeal.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 9 at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 3 of 4 home defeats v top 4.
  • Beat  Celta 2-3 this season.

Celta Vigo (11th)

  • 2 consecutive away wins.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored in every away match.
  • Yet to have a 0-0 at halftime.
  • Wins away v 16th, 18th and 20th.

Conclusions

  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Expect Celta to score at some point.

19:45 - Betis v Barcelona - 1.3 Barcelona

  • 0-2 and 1-1 last 2 head to heads at Betis.
  • Barcelona have won 5/8 away matches against top half non-Big Two teams and they have won by two or more goals in 9/12 away matches.
  • There have been +2.5 goals in 7/10 Real Betis home matches.

Betis (7th)

  • 3 wins in 4 matches.
  • Only 1 win in 5 at home was a 3-2 last match.
  • No 0-0.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • All defeats at home v top 2.
  • 15 of 20 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Barcelona (1st)

  • A great trading match last match 2-0 down to Sociedad, winning 2-4. More today please!
  • Unbeaten.
  • Scored in every match.
  • Note they have lost 3 times at halftime away.
  • Scored 2+ goals in all away wins v 4th and lower.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals.
  • 19 of 23 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Barcelona have been great of late and no need to desert them today regardless of if they are conceding.
  • Expect Barca to score at least 2 goals today.
  • Note Barca's strong 2nd half scoring pattern especiially if they have a barren first half.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

11:30 - Sparta Rotterdam v Excelsior - 2.1 Sparta Rotterdam

  • 3-2, 2-3 Excelsior then a 1-1 last 3 head to heads.

Sparta Rotterdam (18th - bottom)

  • 6 consecutive defeats.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in 3 of 4 at home.
  • Wins v 13th and 16th at home.

Excelsior (12th)

  • 2 consecutive clean sheets win and draw at home.
  • 3 consecutive away defeats.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 away.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Get better the lower down the league they go. 4 wins, 2 draws and a loss v teams below them.

Conclusions

  • A chance for Excelsior for me given their performances v teams below them in the league. The market does not dismiss Sparta.
  • Only 2 clean sheets for Sparta suggests they will concede at some point. A ready angle particularly if they score.

13:30 - Ajax v Feyenoord - 1.64 Ajax

  • 5 consecutive head to heads with both teams scoring.
  • 2 consecutive home 2-1 wins for Ajax.

Ajax (2nd)

  • New Ajax manager apparently. It is catching isn't it this new manager malarkey throughout Europe!!
  • Apparently he is a new appointment.
  • New manager won't have to change much.
  • 6 wins in 7 matches.
  • In 10 of the last 12 matches, Ajax scored 3 goals.
  • Scored in every match.
  • Lost at home to 6th and 7th 1-2 so slight vulnerability given who they are playing today.
  • 100% over 2.5 goals at home.
  • 20 of 26 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Feyenoord (5th)

  • 4 wins in 5 matches.
  • Unbeaten in 8. Last loss was a 1-4 v ....Ajax.

Conclusions

  • The new manager just needs to keep it as it is and that should see Ajax win today. Slight caution re the 1-2 losses at home v 6th and 7th but that is trumped by scoring 3 goals in 10 of their last 12 matches.
  • I think Ajax should outscore Feyenoord so that tells us to lay Feyenoord if they score first.
  • Ajax are strong 2nd half scorers so if they do not score by halftime fear not.

13:30 - Willem II v Groningen - 2.26 Willem II

  • 1-1 and 0-1 Willem II last 2 head to heads.

Willem II (14th)

  • Only 4 wins.
  • Only 1 clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 9 at home and last 9 overall.
  • No 0-0.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Unbeaten v 13th and lower.

Groningen (13th)

  • Only 5 wins.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • A poor record away v 11th and lower sees them concede 2 goals in each match losing 4 and drawing one 2-2.

Conclusions

  • Both teams to score looks an obvious call. I would side with Willem II today based on Groningen's poor form v 11th and lower away.
  • I would certainly lay any team leading 2-0/0-2 and any team leading 1-0 late on.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market in the hope we see the goals the form suggests will arrive.

15:45 - Heracles v PSV - 1.34 PSV

  • 1-2 PSV in the last visit to Heracles.

Heracles (11th)

  • Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • 5 wins and a 1-1 draw at home last 6 matches. Eye-catching.
  • No 0-0.
  • Beat Ajax 2-1 at home but did lose 2-4 to 5th in the league at home.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals.

PSV (1st)

  • Only 2 defeats came away.
  • Those were the only matches in which PSV did not score.
  • Unbeaten v 10th and lower with all wins bar a single draw.

Conclusions

  • Due deference to Heracles recent home winning run but contextually, all wins bar 1 came v teams 10th and lower.
  • We should really expect Heracles NOT to repeat their 2-1 home win v 2nd placed Ajax.
  • PSV should eye 2-4 goals today as they tend to v 10th and lower.
  • In the expectation for goals, it's not a stretch to look to lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

13:30 - Antwerp v Club Brugge - 1.67 Club Brugge

  • 4 consecutive Club Brugge wins in head to heads.

Antwerp (4th)

  • Only 5 defeats.
  • Only 1 win in 5 home matches.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Lost 1-0 to Club Brugge earlier this season. Lost at home to 2nd too so may find the top 2 a step too far.
  • Indeed no win at home v top 7.

Club Brugge (1st)

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • 6 wins in 7 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Only 1 win in 4 away.
  • Scored 2 goals + in each of their last 7 matches.
  • Away losses v 7th and 9th.

Conclusions

  • Club Brugge are more vulnerable away from home and away v top 7 teams.
  • They have, though, failed to score in only 2 matches so that would be an angle in a match which I cannot, hand on heart, pick a winner.
  • Strictly on form, if you want to trust form, Antwerp do not win to top 7 at home, Brugge are scoring 2 goals consistently recently....so Brugge 2 goals?