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More correct score joy in yesterday's live chat. Bournemouth 2-2 was the icing (or should that be cherry?) on the cake. I also liked the scenario I engineered in The New Saints (TNS) match. 0-0 at halftime is unexpected when a favourite is 1.12 odds. So I backed 3-0, 3-1 and any other home score at odds of 10, 32 and 14. Of course we want a Napoli-like scenario - a 3-1 for a whopping payout.
Cue the goals. 3-0 before you know it. And all bases covered. I win regardless of who scores next. I do, of course, want Barry Town to score next for that 3-1. As it happened TNS made it 4-0 for a 14 odds payout. 2 weeks on the trot this has happened. The cause? Faith in the pre match odds (1.12 for TNS and 1.16 for Napoli) being indicative of goals even if 0-0 at halftime.
14:00 start today for Italian Seria A who are getting back into their stride after their Winter Break. Apologies for Internet problems yesterday. These occasionally happen in live chats and are, of course, out of my sphere of influence.

11:30 - Juventus v Lazio - 1.54 Juventus

  • 2 top 4 teams in Italian Seria A could make for a tight match.

Juventus 100% stats

  • All home wins.
  • Unbeaten at halftime at home.
  • Never conceded more than 2 goals in a home match.
  • Not conceded in both halves at home.
  • No home matches with exactly 2 goals.
  • No draw.

Juventus other stats

  • Failed to score only once.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Scored between 2 and 4 goals in all bar 1 match at home.
  • 90% over 2.5 goals at home.

Lazio Roma 100% stats

  • No 0-0.

Lazio Roma other stats

  • 8 wins in their last 11 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • 4 defeats and a draw v top 6 teams this season. Juventus are top.
  • 11 of 13 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late 0-0 here. Both sides tend to avoid the 0-0.
  • Lay Lazio if Lazio score first based mostly on their poor record against top 5 teams.
  • Both teams could score with Lazio not winning.
  • If Lazio have not conceded by halftime (and Juventus have an excellent record of leading at halftime), expect Lazio to concede 2nd half.

12:00 - Southampton v Leicester - 1.91 Southampton

Southampton 100% stats

  • Not scored in both halves at home.

Southampton other form

  • 4 consecutive defeats.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home (50%).
  • 1-1, 1-0, 1-1, 1-0 at home v teams below them in the league. Leicester are 15th, Southampton are 13th.
  • Southampton have only scored more than 1 goal in a home match once this season.

Leicester 100% stats

  • No away win.
  • Not scored in both halves away.
  • Not scored first in an away match.
  • Not led at halftime away.

Leicester other stats

  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in 4 of their last 6 matches.
  • 10 goals conceded in the last 15 mins of away matches.

Conclusions

  • Southampton clearly have a goal scoring problem, and tend to max out at 1 goal at home. This presents vulnerability.
  • On form, Southampton are likely to score first and lead at halftime. If 0-0 30th minute, I would lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • I would lay any late 1 goal lead from Southampton given their poor record. 1-1, 1-0 tend to crop up at home v teams in Leicester's position.

14:00 - Genoa v Crotone - 1.58 Genoa

  • 1-3 to Genoa in the recent Italian Seria A encounter between these 2 teams.
  • These 2 sides are in the wrong half of the table with Crotone 2nd bottom.

Genoa 100% stats

  • None.

Genoa other stats

  • 4 consecutive defeats.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime in the last 13 matches.
  • Poor record at home v bottom 4 teams with 2 draws and a loss.

Crotone 100% stats

  • No away win.
  • Conceded in all away matches.
  • Not scored 2 goals in an away match.
  • No over 4.5 goals match away.
  • Not scored in both halves away.

Crotone other stats

  • Only 2 wins.
  • All defeats bar a draw away.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • 1-0, 2-1, 2-1 defeats v teams directly below Genoa in the league.
  • 4 of 5 goals scored away came 1st half.
  • A massive 9 goals conceded last 15 minutes of away matches.

Conclusions

  • Crotone are highly likely to concede. Genoa could end their run of defeats but have a poor home record against bottom 4 teams.
  • The mischievous amongst us would lay Genoa if Genoa lead as their odds will be short, but then the Spock-like logical sorts will note Crotone have lost all bar 1 away match!
  • 1-1, 2-1 possible scorelines to go to war with? 1-1 covers Genoa NOT winning as per their form v bottom 4.

14:00 - Palermo v Inter - 1.58 Inter

  • 1-1, 3-1 Inter, 1-1 in the last 3 head to heads in Italian Seria A.

Palermo 100% stats

  • No home win.
  • Not scored in both halves at home.
  • Not scored 2 goals or more in a home match.

Palermo other stats

  • Only 2 wins.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Conceded in their last 15 matches.
  • All defeats bar a draw at home.

Inter Milan 100% stats

  • No over 4.5 goals matches away.
  • No 0-0.

Inter Milan other stats

  • 6 wins and a loss in their last 7 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Inter Milan have scored 2+ goals in 7 of their last 9 matches.
  • Wins away v 16th, 17th, and 20th and play 18th today.
  • Opponents have scored first in 8/10 away matches.

Conclusions

  • Palermo are highly likely to concede. Inter Milan could score 2 goals again today.
  • Dare we back Inter Milan if Palermo score first.
  • Inter Milan may concede first. It is an uncomfortable habit of theirs. I hope they will today.

14:00 - Bologna v Torino - 2.58 Torino

  • Torino have won the last 3 Italian Seria A head to heads.

Bologna 100% stats

  • No over 4.5 goals at home.

Bologna other stats

  • 3 clean sheets in their last 4 matches.
  • Failed to score in 6 of their last 9 matches but did score in their last 2 away matches.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 home matches.
  • Yet to beat a top 9 team - Torino are 8th.

Torino 100% stats

  • All defeats away by 1 or 2 goals.
  • No 1-0 or 0-1 away.

Torino other stats

  • 5 clean sheets in 7 matches v teams 14th and lower in the league (Bologna are 15th).
  • 80% over 1.5 goals.
  • 11 of 15 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusion

  • Note the market cannot split these teams. Strictly on form, Torino should not lose today.
  • Note Torino score the vast majority of their goals in the second half.
  • Faith in the stats that Torino will not lose?

14:15 - Arsenal v Burnley - 1.21 Arsenal

Arsenal 100% stats

  • Single defeat at home was by one goal.
  • No opponent has led at halftime at home.

Arsenal other stats

  • Only 3 defeats.
  • 3 clean sheets in their last 4 matches.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • Scored in their last 12 matches.
  • No defeat in 9 matches at home.
  • Scored 2+ goals in 7 of their 10 home matches.
  • Unbeaten v teams outside of the top 8 (Burnley are 10th).

Burnley 100% stats

  • Not scored 2 goals in an away match.
  • No over 4.5 goals matches away.
  • Not scored in both halves away.
  • Never led at halftime away.

Burnley other stats

  • Only 2 draws.
  • 3 wins in 4 matches came at home. This is where Burnley get their points.
  • No win in 9 away.
  • 96% of points earned at home.
  • 8 losses and a 0-0 away.

Conclusions

  • Arsenal are likely to score 3 goals at a stretch today. This should present the win. Burnley are excellent at home but away, they cannot do anything constructive.
  • 3-1, 3-0 are possible starting points in the correct score market. Note Arsenal went to town in the 2nd half against Swansea so the correct score market enters calculations if only 1-0 at halftime.

14:30 - Leverkusen v Hertha Berlin - 1.71 Leverkusen

  • 2 consecutive 2-1 results, one to each side, in head to heads.

Leverkusen 100% stats

  • No 1-0 or 0-1 at home.

Leverkusen other stats

  • Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime in the last 12 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 home matches.
  • Only 1 0-0.
  • All defeats v top 5 this season with Hertha in 3rd.

Hertha  Berlin 100% stats

  • No match with exactly 4 goals.

Hertha Berlin other stats

  • Only 1 0-0.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime away.

Conclusions

  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Leverkusen have failed to score in only 2 matches so expect a goal from them today?
  • Other than that, no strong angles.

15:15 - Athletic Bilbao v Atletico Madrid - 2.1 Atl Madrid

  • Atl Madrid have a good record in head to heads in the Spanish La Liga.

Ath. Bilbao 100% stats

  • All wins at home by 1 (4 matches) or 2 (2 matches) goals.

Ath Bilbao other stats

  • 2 consecutive 0-0's.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • No defeat in 8 home matches.
  • 5 wins and a defeat at home v top 9 teams.

Atl Madrid 100% stats

  • No over 4.5 goals matches away.
  • 10 of 12 goals scored away came 2nd half.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away.

Atl Madrid other stats

  • 5 clean sheets in 6 matches.
  • All defeats away have come v top 6 teams. Bilbao are on the cusp in 7th.

Conclusions

  • I would oppose this 0-0 sequence. However small, a team's goal is, erm, goals! Lay any late 0-0.
  • Atl Madrid tend to score 2nd half so if 0-0 at halftime (and 2/3rd of Madrid away matches have been), then I would expect goals.
  • Atl Madrid are vulnerable away v teams as low as 6th. Will this stretch to 7th in the league?

15:45 - PSV v Heerenveen - 1.38 PSV

  • 3rd and 4th in the dutch Eredivisie but the market is emphatic!

PSV 100% stats

  • AII home wins by 1 or 2 goaIs.
  • Not Iost a home game at haIftime.
  • No over 4.5 goaIs.
  • Not conceded in both haIves.
  • No home match with exactIy 3 or 5 goaIs.

PSV other stats

  • OnIy 1 defeat.
  • 6 cIean sheets in their Iast 9 matches.
  • No defeat in 12 matches.
  • 6 0-0's at haIftime at home.
  • OnIy scored a max of 1 goaI in home matches v top 13 sides.
  • 7 of 10 goaIs scored 2nd haIf.

Heerenveen 100% stats

  • AII over 2.5 goaIs in away matches.
  • At Ieast one team has scored 2 goaIs at Ieast in aII away matches.
  • 100% over 2.5 goaIs away.

Heerenveen other stats

  • FaiIed to score onIy once.
  • OnIy 5 under 2.5 goaIs matches.

ConcIusions

  • If a Heerenveen match away is going to see 2 goaIs from one team, then PSV are going to have to break a reaIIy poor habit at home of onIy scoring 1 goaI.
  • WiII that happen, or are PSV IayabIe if PSV Iead (at nice short odds) - the argument being that if a team scores 2 away in an Heerenveen match, it Iooks IikeIy to be the away side.
  • If PSV are to win whiIe scoring 1 goaI they wiII need to keep a cIean sheet and break that Heerenveen 2 goaI stat.
  • Which side of the fence to you sit on?

16:30 - Chelsea v Hull - 1.2 Chelsea

Chelsea 100% stats

  • No home draw.
  • No 0-0.
  • Scored in every home match.
  • Not conceded in both halves at home.

Chelsea other stats

  • Only 3 defeats. 14 wins and a loss in their last 15 matches.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • 7 consecutive home wins.
  • No draw in 10 at home and 17 overall.
  • All defeats have been exclusively v top 4 teams.
  • 90% over 2.5 goals at home.
  • Scored first in 8/10 at home.

Hull City 100% stats

  • No 0-0.

Hull City other stats

  • Only 4 wins all required Hull to score at least 2 goals.
  • Only 1 clean sheet. conceded in their last 19 matches.
  • 8 consecutive away defeats.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away.
  • All defeats bar top 5, 4 of those defeats were by 3 goals at least.
  • Not scored in both halves away.
  • Conceded 13 goals in the last 1/2 hour of away matches.

Conclusions

  • We are unlikely to see a trade today as Chelsea are likely to score first and have the potential to score 3 goals.
  • Hull have had 50% of away matches 0-0 at halftime but we do tend to see a 1-0 Chelsea at halftime. Delay as long as you can in case this defensively strong Hull turn up.
  • Back Chelsea if Hull score first.

16:30 - Mainz v FC Koln - 2.58 Mainz

  • The odds suggest the market cannot split these 2 German Bundesliga teams.

Mainz 100% stats

  • No home 0-0.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals at home.
  • Scored in all home matches.
  • No home 1-0 or 0-1.

Mainz other stats

  • Only 2 draws.
  • Only 3 over 2.5 goals matches.
  • Scored in their last 7 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • All bar 1 home match both teams scored.
  • V top 9, have conceded 1-4-4-2 and conceded 3-4-2-3 goals. Koln are 7th.
  • Scored first in 6 of 7 home matches.

Koln 100% stats

  • No away lead at halftime.
  • No over 4.5 goals matches away.

Koln other stats

  • 3 consecutive 1-1 draws.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 7 away matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Unbeaten home and away v teams below them in the league.
  • 8 of 11 goals conceded away came 1st half.
  • Opponents have scored first in 6 of 8 away matches.
  • Opponents have led in 5 of 8 away matches.

Conclusions

  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Statistically Mainz are likely to score first but that should not be the only goal of the game. I must lay Mainz if they lead 1-0 or 2-0.
  • There is an argument to back 2-2 here as it might appear (or the hint of the scoreline) at some point in this match.
  • Lay any late 1-1. Koln's 1-1 pattern should end soon.

17:30 - Betis v Sporting Gijon - 1.76 Betis

Betis 100% stats

  • AII wins at home by either 1 or 2 goaIs.
  • No home match with exactIy 3 goaIs.

Betis other stats

  • 71% of points earned at home.
  • OnIy 1 home 0-0.
  • Scored 2 goaIs in aII 4 matches home and away v bottom 5 sides (where Gijon reside).

Gijon 100% stats

  • AII away defeats by either 1 goaI (6) or 4+ goaIs (1).
  • Not won to niI away.
  • No away match with exactIy 2 or 4 goaIs.
  • Not Ied at haIftime away.

Gijon other stats

  • 12 defeats, a win and 2 draws in the Iast 15 matches.
  • OnIy 2 cIean sheets.
  • No win in 9 away.

ConcIusions

  • Betis must be fancied here against a Gijon whose best case away is a 0-0. Given they keep it tight to haIftime this might be the case HaIftime but not fuII time.
  • Betis shouId continue their scoring of 2 goaIs v bottom 5 sides. As Gijon tend onIy to Iose by a singIe goaI (and presuming Betis win), 1-0 or 2-1 Iook IikeIy correct score contenders.

 17:30 - Sociedad v Celta Vigo - 2 Sociedad

  • 5th v 8th in the Spanish Primera Liga. 2 in-form sides it seems.

Sociedad 100% stats

  • No 0-0.

Sociedad other stats

  • Only 2 defeats in 10 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Only defeats at home came v the top 2 teams.

Celta Vigo 100% stats

  • No away match with total goals of exactly 4.

Celta Vigo other stats

  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • No win in 5 away, conceding in those 5 away.
  • Only 1 0-0.
  • Have lost the matches played away v top 9 teams.

Conclusions

  • Do not expect a 0-0.
  • On form, Celta Vigo seem vulnerable against the top sides. If that form continues, lay Celta if Celta score first.
  • Sociedad are vulnerable away but at home they have only lost to the top 2 and that is strong.

19:45 - Roma v Cagliari - 1.27 Roma

Roma 100% stats

  • All home wins.
  • Not conceded in both halves at home.

Roma other stats

  • 11 wins, 2 losses and a draw in their last 14 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Scored 2 goals at least in all bar 1 match at home.
  • 89% over 2.5 goals at home.
  • Scored first in 8/9 at home.

Cagliari 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • No away clean sheets.
  • Not scored in both halves away.

Cagliari other stats

  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • No win in 6 away.
  • Conceded in their last 16 matches.
  • 4-0 and 4-1 defeats away v 1st and 4th.
  • 90% over 1.5 goals away.

Conclusions

  • We are unlikely to see a 0-0 here. 2 goals at least expected today. In fact, Roma could score 4 goals at their best today.
  • This looks rather straightforward. It should be a Roma win with 2+ goals.

19:45 - Eibar v Barcelona - 1.32 Barcelona

  • A top 10 spot for Eibar suggests a decent start to the season in Spanish La Liga.

Eibar 100% stats

  • All wins and defeats by 1 or 2 goals.

Eibar other stats

  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0.
  • 1-1 away to 1st and at home to 2nd suggests possible thorns in the side.

Barcelona 100% stats

  • No 0-0 away.
  • Scored in every away match.

Barcelona other stats

  • Failed to score only once.
  • No defeat in 11.
  • Only 2 wins v top 8 away so there are struggles this season.
  • 16 of 24 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Barcelona might be in for a battle, but remember, this is Barcelona. Eibar did recently lose 0-2 at home to Atl Madrid but kept Sevilla to 1-1 (a Sevilla side beating ReaI Madrid recently).
  • Eibar could well score today and if scoring first will be vulnerable. Barcelona have failed to score only once and that is a good stat to keep in mind.