Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

What a superb live chat yesterday. Pity there was such a low turn out. If you're not there, you can't profit when we have days like these.

1:30pm today and I cannot promise it will be as great as yesterday, but you never know how the day unfolds.

Where I mention BANKER below, this signifies those matches where I think the favourites should win. These matches I would personally prioritise as regards DRT.

Remember the strategies:

  • Lay the 0-0 halftime score in certain signalled matches

  • Lay the 0-0 2nd half in matches where goals were expected but have not yet materialised

  • Lay the 2-2 scoreline, especially early on in matches. 2-2 shows us that teams are scoring and conceding.

  • Lay the away team leading 0-2 before halftime, especially if they are favourites. The home team is usually galvanised by the halftime team talk.

  • Lay the underdog if they score first in certain matches ( especially BANKER matches where I would back the BANKERS if they conceded first at enhanced odds)

  • Lay the underdog  scoring early in the first half, in the HALF TIME market , especially in BANKER matches.

13:30 UK Liverpool v Man Utd - 2.1 home

Standout Stats

  • 3-0 to both sides in the most recent head to heads in the Premiership.
  • This is not a match I am keen to research as these big games invariably fall to the best on the day, rather than the team with the best form.
  • A match to savour and perhaps not trade unless one of the teams takes a 2-0 lead.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • As above. I tend to opt out of these matches.
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14:00 UK Juventus v Genoa - 1.28 home

Standout Stats

  • 2-0, 0-1 to Juve in head to heads ended with a 1-0 Genoa home win.
  • This is 1st v 7th in Seria a and is not really a must-win for Juventus who have Roma's poor form to thanks for their position.

Juventus

  • Only 1 loss all season was against guess who.....? Genoa.
  • 5 match winning streak at home
  • No defeat in 18 matches and 13 at home
  • Juventus have scored in their last 13 at home
  • All wins at home bar 1-1 draws v 5th and 7th.
  • Have only conceded 2 goals at home in 1 match.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • No 0-0 at home
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Scored 17 1st half and 16 2nd half goals at home.
  • Scored first in 12 of 13 home matches.
  • No opponent has led at halftime at Juve

Genoa

  • Scored in their last 12 away matches.
  • No defeat in 3 away matches.
  • Beat Lazio 0-1 away (3rd)
  • All 4 scorelines (3 at home, 1 away) v top 3 this season have been 1-0  - 3 wins and a loss.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 away matches with 2 consecutive 1-1 draws.
  • Failed to score in 4 aways.
  • Only 1 0-0 away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • This could be a very interesting match , what with 3 1-0 wins for Genoa home and away v top 3 sides.
  • Genoa have scored in their last 12 away matches . Both teams to score today? I would have to lay Genoa if they score first, but back 0-1 as an insurance bet if the goal is scored early enough.
  • If Genoa score early first half, lay them in the halftime market.
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14:00 UK RC Mechelen v Lommel - 1.17 away - BANKERS

Standout Stats

  • 3-0 Lommel win in the most recent head to head.
  • This is 2nd bottom v 2nd top in the Belgian 2nd division.
  • Lommel are 8 points shy of top spot.

Mechelen

  • 8 match losing streak at home
  • Conceded in their last 9 matches overall and last 14 at home.
  • Did beat 3rd at home 3-1 but as you can see it was a while ago.
  • Against the rest of the top 6 at home, Mechelen failed to score.
  • 16 defeats in their last 19 matches, with only 1 win , an away win.
  • Failed to score in their last 3 matches.
  • No 0-0 at home

Lommel

  • Only 2 defeats away came v 3rd and 6th.
  • Have beaten all bottom 5 away and all bottom 3 home and away keeping 4 clean sheets in 5 matches.
  • 7 clean sheets in their last 10 matches.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • This looks as straightforward as the odds. A clean sheet win for Lommel is on the cards too. 0-3 starters for me.
  • A good DRT match as Mechelen should offer little so if they do surprise, la them, or better yet back Lommel.
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14:30 UK Mainz 05 v Wolfsburg - 2.15 away

Standout Stats

  • 2 consecutive 3-0 home wins in head to heads for Wolfsburg.
  • This is 12th v 2nd in the Bundesliga. Wolfsburg are 11 points shy of Bayern Munich and seem destined for 2nd and a worthy European spot.

Mainz

  • Scored and conceded in their last 2 home matches.
  • 3 defeats at home v 1st, 9th and 13th.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of 6 matches at home to 9th and higher.
  • Only 2 wins in their last 8 home matches. 5-0 and 3-1 wins v Paderborn and Frankfurt.
  • Have scored 2+ goals in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • 2 0-0's at home
  • 3 0-0's at halftime at home

Wolfsburg

  • No draw in 6 matches and in 3 away
  • Have conceded in 7 away matches.
  • Have scored and conceded away in 9 of 11 matches v 15th and above. Standard Wolfs you know! Scoring and conceding freely.
  • Only 1 loss in 13 matches came away v Augsburg where it was a 1-0.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 away matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches this season
  • Both teams have scored in 75% of away matches.
  • No 0-0

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Both teams to score despite the last 2 head to heads.
  • Wolfsburg are in great form and are favoured today.
  • Back any team leading 2-0.
  • I would lay the 0-0 halftime score in anticipation of goals.
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14:45 UK Plzen v Slovan Liberec - 1.4 ( William Hill) 1.45 Betfair as I write home  - BANKERS

Standout Stats

  • Slovan win, draw, Plzen win, draw in the last 4 head to heads.
  • This is top v bottom in the Czech top league.

Plzen

  • 9 match winning streak at home.
  • No draw in 13 matches.
  • Scored in their last 15 matches.
  • 2 consecutive clean sheets.
  • 6-0 and 4-0 v 2 of the bottom 3 at home.
  • Not conceded more than a single goal in a match at home.
  • 6-3-3-1 scored since the return from the Winter Break
  • 5 clean sheets in their last 6 home matches.
  • Failed to score in only 1 match.
  • 12 wins in 13 matches.
  • No 0-0

Slovan Liberec

  • Conceded in their last 6 matches and last 3 away
  • No win in 8 matches and in 4 away
  • Only 2 wins this season
  • 1-1 draw v Plzen at home and 1-0 loss away to 2nd suggests Slovan could be tricky customers today.
  • Worryingly though, Slovan have conceded 2-1-3-3-2-3 in recent matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Head to heads are inconclusive. When Plzen won, it was a 6-0 spanking. Draws were 1-1.
  • I am a little suspicious of the odds. 1.45 suggests the market is aware that Slovan have kept it tight v the big teams this season .
  • Still this looks good for Plzen with 5 clean sheets in their last 6 home matches, 6-0 and 4-0 home wins v bottom 3 and a Slovan side who have conceded 2-1-3-3-2-3 in their recent matches.
  • I expect home team domination. Anything else and we can strike.
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15:45 UK Ajax v ADO Den Haag - 1.44 home

Standout Stats

  • 3-2 Ajax and 1-1 in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 2nd v 14th in the Dutch Eredivisie and 2nd seems all Ajax are playing for. ADO will want the points as they are an uncomfortable 5 points from relegation.

Ajax

  • 3 match winning streak, 2 at home
  • All wins v 7th and lower at home
  • 5 wins and a draw in their last 6 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Only 2 home defeats v top 4.
  • 2 0-0's at home
  • 33 goals scored at home

ADO Den Haag

  • No win in 13 away matches
  • Lost away to all top 6
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away
  • Conceded 10 goals in the last 1/4 hour of the first half away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Lay the 0-0 halftime score. ADO tend to concede a lot just before halftime.
  • Ajax should out-muscle ADO goals wise today. If ADO score first, lay them.
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16:00 UK Reims v Monaco - 2.05 away

Standout Stats

  • 1-1, 3-2 Monaco, 1-1 in the last 3 head to heads.
  • This is 15th v 4th in French Ligue 1

Reims

  • 5 losses at home v 3rd, 5th, 10th, 14th and 17th
  • No win v top 5 at home.
  • Only 1 win in 10 matches came in their last home match.
  • 2 0-0's at home
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home
  • Scored first in 9 of 15 home matches.

Monaco

  • 2 match winning streak away
  • No draw in 7 away matches
  • Wins in the 4 away matches v 13th and lower.
  • 11 clean sheets in their last 14 matches.
  • No away 0-0
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away
  • Scored first in 10 of 14 away matches.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • A puzzle as to why Monaco are not shorter odds today given their ability to keep a clean sheet which is of course the foundation to any good result.
  • I don't think Monaco will lose today so lay Reims should they score first. BUT Monaco tend to score first in 10 of their 14 away matches.
  • Don't be surprised if this is 0-0 at halftime given Monaco's clean sheetery. Reims losses to 3rd and 5th at home, suggest they should not land a blow today.
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16:00 UK Villarreal v Sevilla - 2. home

Standout Stats

  • 3 consecutive wins for Sevilla included the last 2 in the Europa league.
  • Both teams have scored in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • This is 6th v 5th in La Liga

Villareal

  • 8 match winning streak at home
  • No draw in 13 at home
  • Scored in their last 10 at home
  • Only lost to 1st, 2nd , 3rd at home.
  • Failed to score in only 2 of their last 21 matches.
  • No 0-0 at home
  • 17 of 26 goals scored at home came in the 2nd half.

Sevilla

  • 2 match winning streak.
  • No draw in 13 away matches.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 5 away matches.
  • Losses for Sevilla away v all top 4, 8th, 12th and 13th.
  • No 0-0 away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Lay the late draw, as both sides have failed to draw at home and away respectively.
  • Both sides are vulnerable to top sides  so it remains how they fair against fellow top 6 today.
  • Villareal have superb home form , Sevilla are on a 2 match winning streak.
  • Sevilla have had the best of it in the Europa League latest, but that may not be representative of what they can do in the League proper.
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16:00 UK QPR v Everton - 2.2 away

Standout Stats

  • 2 draws and 2 wins for Everton in the last 4 Premiership head to heads.
  • This is 19th v 14th in the Premiership. 3 points is a must for QPR today. Aston Villa won last week. Sunderland have a tough match today

QPR

  • 4 match losing streak overall, and at home.
  • No win in 6 at home
  • No draw in 9 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 4 matches.
  • 4 of 5 home wins came v bottom 5 sides.
  • 8 losses in their last 9 matches.
  • 0-1-0-0-1-1 scored in recent home matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home

Everton

  • 3 match losing streak away
  • 9 away without a draw
  • Have scored and conceded in all 5 matches home and away v bottom 4 sides.
  • Only 2 wins in 13 matches.
  • Failed to score in 6 of their last 8 away matches.
  • Failed to score in 4 of their last 6 matches.
  • No 0-0 away
  • Conceded 12 goals in the last 1/2 hour of the first half away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Everton are unbeaten in head to heads but off the boil in the Premiership and coming into this after a Thursday night Away trip to Ukraine .
  • Lay any late draw as long as Everton continue to avoid draws away.
  • These 2 sides have failed to score , or scored poorly so I may back 0-0 pre-match and hope this remains 0-0 at halftime to trade out.
  • This is not a match I will prioritise.
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16:00 UK Hull v Chelsea - 1.5 away

Standout Stats

  • 3 consecutive 2-0 wins for Chelsea in head to heads.
  • This is 15th v 1st. A game in hand over City as well as 6 points sees Chelsea in reasonable comfort at the top.
  • Hull have 3 points breathing space to the relegation zone. A gap which is far too small for comfort.

Hull

  • Scored and conceded in their last 2 home matches.
  • No win in 3 matches.
  • Have not beaten any top 10 team at home, losing to all of the top 8 they have played so far.
  • Have not beaten any team home or away v top 10.
  • Only 1 loss in 5 home matches but remember the context above!!
  • Only 1 0-0 at home

Chelsea

  • Scored in their last 15 matches and last 7 away
  • No defeat in 8 and in 3 away
  • 3 match winning streak away
  • Only losses this season came away v 7th and 12th.
  • All wins bar 1 match home and away v 8th -16th inclusive.
  • Chelsea happy to be away. They are drawing regularly at home. They have won their last 3 aways.
  • Failed to score in only 1 away match.
  • 1-2-1-1-1-1 scored in recent matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 away
  • 30 goals scored away, pretty evenly spread between halves.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Hull  have only lost 1 of their last 5 home matches but remember, v top 8, they have lost.
  • Chelsea are likely to score at some stage, but have uncomfortably scored only 1 goal in their last 4 matches. This is a a dangerous game.
  • Chelsea have been emphatic home and away v mid table sides.
  • I do expect Chelsea not to lose today.
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16:30 UK Bayern Munich v Borussia M'gladbach - 1.2 home

Standout Stats

  • A 0-0 the last time these 2 met is a rare occurence for Bayern.
  • 4 consecutive Bayern wins before that
  • This is 1st v 4th in the Bundesliga but there is a 20 point gap.

Bayern Munich

  • 6 match winning streak, 2 at home
  • No defeat in 12 home matches.
  • Scored in their last 16 matches and in their last 12 at home.
  • All wins bar a 1-1 draw v Schalke at home
  • 8 clean sheets kept at home. Not conceded more than 1 goal in a single match at home
  • No 0-0 at halftime in 9 of their last 10  matches.
  • Scored 2+ goals at home bar 3rd and 5th.
  • No 0-0 at home
  • 2 0-0's at halftime at home
  • 40 goals scored at home, and only 2 conceded each half.

Mgladbach

  • Scored and conceded in their last 2 away matches.
  • No win in 3 away
  • No win away v top 12, losing to 2nd, 5th and 6th - tight 1-0, 1-0 2-1 defeats so Bayern should be on their game today
  • A 0-0 with Bayern earlier in the season
  • 2 consecutive away score draws and threw away a 0-2 lead last match.
  • Only 2 0-0's away. 5 0-0's at halftime away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Mgladbach should give Bayern a work out today as they have been tight against other top sides away this season, albeit in very narrow defeats.
  • Complacency the issue with Bayern given their strong lead. Interesting that Bayern only managed 1 goal at home to 3rd and 5th. This does suggest a tough afternoon.
  • If Mgladbach score first, I would lay them. They have no win away v top 12.
  • It remains that Bayern have scored 40 goals and conceded only 4 at home.
  • Look for a tight match today therefore.
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17:00 UK Fenerbahce v Besiktas - 1.8 home

Standout Stats

  • 2 score draws and a Fenerbahce win in the last 3 head to heads.
  • This is 3rd v 2nd. Galatasary was a big winner for me yesterday in an excellent live chat,going top after coming back from 2-0 down. Well, today Besiktas can go back on top with a win, but they have a tricky one.

Fenerbahce

  • Scored in their last 5 matches.
  • Only 1 loss at home v 11th , Akhisar who are Fenerbahce's real bogey team. They have only lost 4 matches this season, 2 came against Akhisar.
  • Beat Galatasary 1-0 at home.
  • Clean sheets in 4 matches played at home v top 7.
  • 4 clean sheets in their last 5 home matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home

Besiktas

  • No draw in 12 away matches.
  • All wins at home bar losses to 15th and 16th away.
  • 4 clean sheets in 5 matches away v top 9 sides.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Lost at home 0-2 v 1st and 3rd
  • No 0-0

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Tight in head to heads as you'd expect.
  • Lay the late 0-0
  • 2 sides in great form makes this , alas, another match where I cannot get a strong angle in. The motivation is with Besiktas to go top with a win.
  • Both sides have 4 clean sheets in 5 home/away matches so this will be a tight match, I'd expect.
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18:00 UK Real Sociedad v Cordoba - 1.67 home

Standout Stats

  • 1-1 the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 12th v 20th. Football genius David Moyes takes on bottom side Cordoba.

Real Sociedad

  • 2 match winning streak at home
  • 4 defeats at home came v 7th, 9th, 13th and 17th, all tight 0-1 or 1-2
  • Yet to play bottom 3 at home
  • 3 wins in their last 4 matches. The last 2 wins were 1-0. It's a tough tactic relying on 1-0's
  • Only 1 loss in 6 matches was a 2-0 v Valencia.
  • Only 1 loss in 9 home matches.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home

Cordoba

  • 8 match losing streak, 4 away
  • Conceded in their last 4 away without scoring.
  • Conceded in their last 9 matches
  • Only 2 away wins were 0-1 v 8th and 9th.
  • 1-0 losses away to 10th and 11th and play 12th today.
  • Failed to score in 5 of their last 6 away matches.
  • No 0-0 away
  • 16 of 25 goals conceded away came in the 2nd half.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Real Sociedad are the form side recently . Their defeats at home have been very tight. Cordoba's wins away have been 0-1. If the away side score first, and early, I will back the 0-1 as insurance before laying Cordoba.
  • Sociedad should not lose today
  • Lay any late 0-0.
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19:45 UK Napoli v Atalanta - 1.4 home

Standout Stats

  • 3-0 Atalanta and 1-1 draw in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 4th v 17th in Seria A. A win could take Napoli 3rd .Atalanta have a 4 point cushion above the relegation zone so points are equally important for them today.

Napoli

  • No defeat in 4 at home.
  • Scored in their last 12 at home.
  • Only 2 losses came at home v 1st and 12th.
  • Scored 2+ goals in all bar 2 matches at home.
  • 2-2, 3-3, 2-0 v bottom 6 at home, so a bit wobbly despite scoring 2/3 goals.
  • Only 1 win in 5 matches.
  • 2-2 v Inter Milan at home last time out, 2-0 up
  • Scored 2+ goals at home in 11 of their last 12 matches.
  • Last 3 defeats came away
  • No 0-0
  • 30 goals scored at home, 18 in the 2nd half

Atalanta

  • No win in 6 matches
  • Failed to score in 9 away matches.
  • Lost away to all top 6 they have played so far.
  • 8 losses and a draw home and away v top 6
  • 2 consecutive 0-0's
  • Only 1 win in 13 away matches was a 1-0
  • 4 0-0's away
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Napoli have not won the last 2 head to heads. They are, though undefeated in their last 4 at home , scoring in their last 12 at home. So expect a goal from them at least today.
  • They have scored 2+ v bottom 6 sides at home, albeit score draws, so lay Napoli if they lead 2-0.
  • Atalanta don't seem capable against top 6 sides so it is clear advantage Napoli despite only 1 win in 5 matches ( 3 losses away)
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19:45 UK Lazio v Verona - 1.44 home

Standout Stats

  • Both teams have scored in the last 7 head to heads.
  • This is 3rd v 14th In Seria A

Lazio

  • 5 match winning streak , 2 at home
  • No draw in 13 at home
  • 3 consecutive clean sheets.
  • 4 losses at home v 1st, 4th, 9th and 15th, 3 of those were 0-1
  • All wins saw Lazio score 2-4 goals at home
  • 4 clean sheets in their last 5 matches.
  • No 0-0 at home
  • Only 1 0-0 at home

Hellas Verona

  • Scored and conceded in their last 4 away matches
  • No defeat in 4 matches.
  • Only beaten 1 side above them away from home. conceded at least 2 goals away v top 9 sides.
  • 2-2-2 scored in their last 3 away matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Verona are vulnerable to sides above them away from home, tending to concede 2 goals. That is a recipe for disaster, albeit they have had a couple of 2-2 draws.
  • Lazio are in great form , winning their last 5 and keeping 3 clean sheets. Their defeats at home tend to be 0-1  and if Verona are conceding 2 goals away v top sides, we should not see a 0-1 today.
  • I will back 2-2 pre match in the hope Verona score 2 goals again away from home and indeed concede 2 goals again away from home.
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19:45 UK Cesena v Roma - 1.61 away

Standout Stats

  • 4 consecutive Roma wins in head to heads.
  • This is 19th v 2nd in Seria A. Points necessary for Cesena. Roma it seems have handed the title to Juve care of their draws.

Cesena

  • Only 4 wins this season, 2 came against bottom side.
  • 2-2 at home to Juventus and 2-1 home win v Lazio  makes this intriguing
  • Failed to score in their last 2 at home
  • 2 clean sheets in their last 3 matches, albeit at home
  • Win and draw v Juve and Lazio came really recently so Cesena could be a real threat today
  • Only 1 0-0 at home

Roma

  • No defeat in 8 away but 4 draws in their last 5.
  • Only 3 defeats this season, all v top 5 and 2 away to 1st and 4th.
  • All wins away v 15th and lower , all very tight either 0-1 or 1-2
  • 8 draws in their last 10 matches includes a 2-0 loss to Sampdoria last match. Dire stuff from a team who could have been contenders.
  • 2 0-0's away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • I wouldn't be a backer of Roma in the current shambolic state they are in. In Cesena they meet a team who have drawn with Juve and beaten Lazio really recently so they could give Roma a real test today. Roma have great winning form v bottom 6 away, albeit scorelines have been 0-1 or 1-2.
  • It's tough to trust Roma today so maybe this will be a watching brief. We saw their draw sequence end last match. Cesena have more motivation I feel than Roma.
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20:00 UK Barcelona v Real Madrid - 1.67 home - BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE BANKER

Standout Stats

  • I am not going to do strong research here , just mention the head to heads.
  • Both teams have scored in their last 17 head to heads. That seems the angle in today. If a team lead 2-0/0-2 , lay them. If the match is 0-0 at halftime, lay under 3.5 goals for the 2nd half.