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See you at 14:00 for a live chat today to cover Italian Seria A which I am researching throughout the day today. The day ended well if you were an FC Basel follower. 1-2 then a 90th+ minute equalizer for the strong home favourites! Did you lay Vaduz late on?

11:00 - Sociedad v Deportivo - 1.63 Sociedad

  • 5-1 Depor in the last head to head.
  • This is 7th v 16th in Spanish La Liga.
  • 6 matches remain for both sides. A possible 18 points. All wins for Sociedad could conceivably seem them top 4. Depor have a 9 point cushion above the relegation zone so a win could be enough to secure their survival.
  • The market has opted to side with Sociedad on this occasion.

Sociedad 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • Unbeaten at home v teams below them in the league.

Sociedad other stats

  • Only 1 win in 6 matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime last 8 matches.

Deportivo 100% stats

  • All defeats away to top 8 sides.
  • Not beaten a top 17 side away from home.

Deportivo other stats

  • Only 1 away win.
  • Only led twice at halftime away.

Conclusions

  • Depor would love to seal their survival today but might have to wait. Their away record v top 17 is dire - yet to win and they meet a Sociedad side who, despite only 1 win in 6 matches, are unbeaten v teams below them in the league.
  • I expect Sociedad not to lose so would lay Depor if Depor scored first.

11:30 - Sassuolo v Napoli - 1.4 Napoli

  • 1-1 the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 14th v 3rd in Italian Seria A. 2nd spot is open for Napoli.
  • Sassuolo are 14 points clear of relegation. There are 6 matches remaining this season. A win for Sassuolo guarantees their Seria A future.

Sassuolo stats

  • Only 1 win in 7.
  • Both teams scored last 4 matches.
  • Recent tight losses to Milan and Lazio at home suggests vulnerability today.
  • Only 7 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 7 home matches.
  • Only 1 draw at home was a 0-0.
  • All defeat at home v top 7 failing to score in 4 of the matches.
  • No win home or away v top 9 teams.

Napoli stats

  • Only 1 loss in 21 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Scored 3 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime in the last 12 matches.
  • Scored 2+ goals in their last 9 away matches.
  • Unbeaten outside of the top 4.

Conclusions

  • Sassuolo are all but safe but may have to wait in order to make that a mathematical certainty.
  • With Napoli scoring 2 goals with regularity and away from home, and Sassuolo struggling to even score v top 9 teams at home, this looks like an away win if Nap play to their optimum.
  • Certainly Sassuolo must be opposed if leading. Where will they find that 2nd goal? Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

12:00 - Aston Villa v Birmingham - 1.94 Aston Villa

  • 1-1 the last time these 2 met.
  • This is a Birmingham derby between 12th and 20th in the Championship. Aston Villa are safe and Birmingham are in trouble.
  • Villans will want their side to seal Brum's fate, or at least help to, with a home win!

Aston Villa stats

  • 2 3-1 defeats put an end to a solid run of only 1 defeat in 9 matches.
  • 5 consecutive home wins prior to the loss to Reading latest.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Only 3 home defeats. 6 wins and a 2-2 at home v 17th and lower.

Birmingham stats

  • Scored and conceded in their last 6 away without winning.
  • Conceded in their last 17 away matches.
  • Scored and conceded in all matches v 11th-17th inclusive away but that saw 4 score draws.

Conclusions

  • Please remember that this is a Birmingham derby and as such, form can be thrown out of the window. Here's that word again, but....
  • 'On form' we could be seeing both teams scoring. On form Aston Villa tend to beat teams 17th and lower and Birmingham tend to attract score draws.
  • Lay Birmingham therefore if Birmingham score first given those score draws.

14:00 - Toulouse v Nice - 2.68 Nice

  • 3-0 Nice the last time these 2 met
  • this is 11th v 3rd in French ligue 1

Toulouse stats

  • 9 point cushion above the relegation zone should be enough
  • just 3 win in 16 matches
  • but just 2 defeats in 11 matches -drawitis!
  • 2 consecutive home 0-0's. A sequence I see ending sooner rather than later
  • have beaten all top 4 at home! Intriguing!
  • 18 of 27 goals scored at home came 2nd half

Nice stats

  • just 2 defeats
  • 7 wins and 3 score draws in their last 10 matches

Conclusions

  • This is a headscratcher. Poor form but beating top 4 100% of the time! That's Toulouse!
  • Nice have just 2 defeats so on probability alone should not be losing.
  • lay any late 0-0 .

 

14:00 - Chievo v Torino - 2.32 Torino

  • 2-1 Torino in the last head to head.
  • This is 13th v 9th in Italian Seria A.
  • 6 matches remain and Chievo are 17 points clear of relegation.
  • For me the season looks over for these 2 teams. I may return to this match for the stats later but want to prioritize the motivated sides.

14:00 - Lazio v Palermo - 1.18 Lazio

  • 0-1 Lazio the last time these 2 met. The market expects 3/4 goals minimum today or at least a comfortable, if less dramatic, win.
  • This is 5th v 19th and Palermo are relegated. Not mathematically so though. Lazio could conceivably finish 2nd but need a few teams to suddenly under-perform.

Lazio stats

  • Only Napoli have beaten Lazio in the last 10 matches.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • All wins home and away v 17th and lower.
  • Clean sheets in the home wins v 17th and lower.
  • 12 of 15 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
  • 17 of 26 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Palermo stats

  • Only 3 wins.
  • Have failed to score 2 goals away this year.
  • Conceded in their last 13 away.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 4 away matches.
  • 1-1 away to 3rd and 0-1 win away to 4th! But all for naught now?
  • No away 0-0.

Conclusions

  • Still plenty to interest Lazio this season, Palermo are not mathematically doomed but need 100% wins and other teams to suddenly commit hari-kari.
  • The odds (as advertised by PSG, Bayern, Sevilla yesterday) suggests 3/4 goals at least but a couple of yesterday's teams could only manage the 2 goals.
  • Strong 2nd half scoring from Lazio. Note that if 0-0 or they are losing at halftime. A possible win to nil if they can keep the clean sheets v 17th and lower.

14:00 - Sampdoria v Crotone - 1.9 Sampdoria

  • 1-1 the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 10th v 18th in Italian Seria A. Crotone are 5 points from 4th bottom and it all looks bad for them to stay up.
  • Sampdoria's season is over.

Sampdoria stats

  • Only 1 win in 4 matches was v Inter Milan away!
  • A solid side at home for me.only 3 losses at home v top 6 sides.
  • 4 1-1 draws and a 3-1 win though v bottom 3 sides.
  • Scored 9 goals last 15 mins of home matches.

Crotone stats

  • 2 2-1 wins and a 1-1 last 3 matches. Fighting!
  • Only 2 clean sheets though.
  • Conceded in their last 16 away matches.
  • Not beaten top 11 away but 1-1 draws v 8th and 9th.
  • 20 of 29 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Potential surprise? This could be a good match for a 2-1/1-2 opening trading angle here. Crotone cannot be discounted in current form. Samp have an uncomfortable 1-1 habit v bottom 3 sides.

14:00 - AC Milan v Empoli - 1.39 AC Milan

  • 1-4 Milan the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 6th v 17th in Italian Seria A.
  • Empoli's season is not finished just yet.

AC Milan 100% stats

  • All home wins v 12th and lower.

AC Milan other stats

  • Only 1 loss in 10 was v Juventus.
  • 4 consecutive home wins.
  • No 0-0 at halftime in their last 9 matches.

Empoli 100% stats

  • All defeats away v top 7 teams conceding 2 goals exactly in each.

Empoli other stats

  • Only 1 win in 11 came away at Fiorentina care of a last second penalty!
  • Conceded in their last 11 matches.
  • Failed to score in 12 of 14 matches away v teams above them in the league.

Conclusions

  • Empoli scored 2 away v Fiorentina but were well out-played and lucky to get a penalty winner. I cannot see lightning strike twice today and would back AC Milan if Empoli scored first.
  • If there was to be a 1-1, I would expect AC Milan to be the scorer of the 3rd goal. Expect Empoli, on form, to be conceding 2 goals.

14:15 - Burnley v Man Utd - 1.69 Man Utd

  • 0-0 the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 14th v 5th in the Premiership.
  • Only 5 matches remain for Burnley. They are only 8 points shy of the relegation zone so are still wary.
  • Man Utd have 7 matches remaining this season If they win their 2 games in hand over Liverpool, they would be equal on points with Liverpool in 3rd spot.

Burnley 100% stats

  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Unbeaten at halftime at home.

Burnley other stats

  • Only 1 win in 10 matches.
  • 4 of their last 5 home wins were 1-0. Will they keep a clean sheet against Man Utd?
  • 5 consecutive 0-0's at halftime.
  • 8 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Lost to 2nd, 4th and 6th at home.
  • 11 of 14 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Man Utd 100% stats

  • Unbeaten home and away v 14th and lower.
  • All away wins v 12th and lower.
  • Not conceded 2 goals in an away match v 11th and lower.

Man Utd other stats

  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • No defeat in 22 matches.
  • Only 3 defeats all season.

Conclusions

  • Burnley are so near safety. We know that they are strong at home. Any Burnley win is likely to be 1-0 but they play a United side who have failed to score only 5 times all season and who are unbeaten in 22 matches.
  • I cannot see a 1-0 Burnley today and would lay them if they lead. They have scored first in 12/16 matches at home so are capable of getting that first goal. If that is the case they are highly likely to concede in the second half.
  • 1-0 is possible but I cannot see Man Utd not scoring unless it is to be another blank day. They did everything but score in the 0-0 earlier in the season.

14:30 - Freiburg v Leverkusen - 2.16 Leverkusen

  • 1-1 the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 6th v 12th in the German Bundesliga.
  • Leverkusen are unexpectedly in a relegation scrap, being as they are 4 points only above the drop zone.
  • Freiburg are only 9 points above the drop zone but are 6th! It will be a relegation merry-go-round for the avoidance of the likely last spot in 3rd bottom.
  • 5 matches remain this season.

Freiburg 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • No draw at home v 4th and lower.

Freiburg other stats

  • 2 1-0 wins in 3 matches.
  • Only 5 clean sheets all season includes those 2 above.
  • 8 wins and 2 defeats at home v 5th and lower.
  • 13 of 18 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Leverkusen 100% stats

  • No 0-0 away.
  • Not beaten a top 10 side away with 7 defeats and a 1-1. Scored and conceded v 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th.

Leverkusen other stats

  • Only 1 win recently in 8 matches was v Darmstadt.
  • Failed to score last 2 matches, albeit v the top 2.

Conclusions

  • Leverkusen used to be top 3 with regularity. Look at previous seasons. They now find themselves realistically in a relegation scrap, albeit with half of Germany!
  • Leverkusen's recent defensive displays might signal a chance of tack. Keeping Bayern and Leipzig to a goal only between them was solid stuff.
  • If we look to the season-form, both teams could score given Leverkusen's record v 7th-10th inclusive away from home.
  • I would lay any late 0-0.
  • I would lay any late draw here too given Freiburg have yet to have a draw at home v 4th and lower.

15:15 - Celta Vigo v Betis - 2.14 Celta

  • 3-3 the last time these 2 teams met.
  • This is 10th v 14th in the Spanish Primera Liga.
  • I think Celta's season is over. Nothing to gain with any further wins (as regards a top 4 spot). Nothing to lose either, as they are 22 points clear of relegation.
  • Betis are 12 points clear of relegation with 6 matches remaining so are pretty much safe. Forgive me but I will not research this match. 2 teams with nowt to play for. Save the research for a match with meaning!

16:00 - st etienne v Rennes - 2.1 St Etienne

  • 2-0 Rennes the Iast time these 2 met
  • This is 7th v 10th in French Iigue 1
  • it seem that these 2 wiII not be drawn into the reIegation battIe

St Etienne stats

  • onIy 1 win in 7 matches was a 1-0
  • 2 consecutive home score draws
  • 1 defeat at home v teams 5th and Iower
  • 1-0-2-0-1-1-0 scored at home v 11th and higher
  • 15 of 23 goaIs scored at home came 2nd haIf

Rennes stats

  • 2 wins in 17 matches came at home. 10 draws though!
  • faiIed to score in 4 of their Iast 5 away matches
  • no win in 11 away
  • just one away win
  • unbeaten v 8th-15th incIusive seeing aII draws bar 1 win

ConcIusions

  • this Iooks Iike a snooze fest. Back 0-0 pre-match with a 1-1 cover? St Etienne are primariIy 2nd haIf scorers. Rennes have faiIed to score in 4 of 5 aways.

 

16:30 - Liverpool v Crystal Palace - 1.52 Liverpool

  • 2-4 Liverpool earlier in the season.
  • This is 3rd v 15th in the Premiership.
  • Liverpool are being attacked by the 2 Manchesters for that coveted 3rd spot. United have 2 games in hand and City one game in hand so this makes home matches like this extremely important.
  • Palace are 7 points clear of relegation. A Big Sam minor miracle.

Liverpool 100% stats

  • Undefeated at home v top 17 teams.
  • Have scored 2 goals at least at home v teams 6th and lower.
  • Not lost to nil at home.

Liverpool other stats

  • 5 wins and 2 draws last 7 matches, scoring and conceding in 6 of those matches.
  • 2-1-2-3-2-3-2 goals scored in recent home matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime in last 11 matches.
  • Scored in their last 13 at home.

Palace under Big Sam stats

  • 15 games under Big Sam I believe. Let's look at them in isolation.
  • Only 2 draws under his tenure book-end his results. 2-2 v Leicester latest.
  • Only 1 defeat in 7 matches and the Big Sam philosophy seems to have sunk in. 5 wins in those 7 matches are literally season-changing.
  • Win, Loss, Win, Win, Loss recently away from home.
  • Under Big Sam, Palace did beat Chelsea and Arsenal so are confident.

Conclusions

  • If Liverpool score 2 goals as they tend to, Palace will have to win 2-3. This is not unprecedented by the way for Liverpool at home.
  • Palace under Big Sam have really got into their stride in the last 7 matches with only 1 defeat and wins v Arsenal and Chelsea.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime market while Liverpool matches are so warm to a goal before halftime.
  • Palace I think may be set up to frustrate. If they score first, I cannot see them keeping Liverpool out so they are to be layed.
  • This is not a straightforward match for Liverpool but a match where we have to wonder whether their usual 2 goals will be enough.

16:30 - Schalke v RB Leipzig - 2.48 RB Leipzig

  • 2-1 Leipzig earlier in the season.
  • This is 11th v 2nd in the German Bundesliga.
  • In this crazy German season, Schalke find themselves threatened with relegation, being some 5 points above the drop zone with 5 matches remaining this season.
  • RB are only 8 points away from Bayern Munich but need Bayern to slip up and RB to kick in the winners to be able to steal the title.

Schalke 100% stats

  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Not beaten a top 4 side home or away.

Schalke other stats

  • WDWDW (W=win, D=draw) last 5 home matches.
  • 1-1 draws at home v 3rd and 3th augurs well for a possible result today.

RB Leipzig 100% stats

  • No 0-0.

RB Leipzig other stats

  • 4 consecutive wins.
  • 4 defeats, a draw and a win last 6 away matches. 2-3-2 goals conceded last 3 away matches.
  • 3 clean sheets in their last 4 matches though came at home.
  • Conceded in their last 9 away matches.
  • Wins away v 9th-15th inclusive.
  • 17 of 24 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • The market cannot split the teams and I can make a strong argument for either side. I see this time and time again when a favourite is over 2.4 decimal odds.
  • Schalke are yet to beat the top 4 but their 1-1 draws v 3rd and 4th suggests they will be competitive today in a match in which both teams could score. RB have conceded in their last 9 away matches.
  • Lay any late 0-0. RB are one of a dying breed this season who are yet to have a 0-0.
  • I would lay RB if RB scored first today given recent concessions away and Schalke's 1-1 habit v the big 4 at home.

17:30 - Las Palmas v Alaves - 2.04 Las Palmas

  • 1-1 the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 13th v 11th in Spanish Primera Liga.
  • Las Palmas are 16 points clear of relegation with a possible 18 points available. They are safe.
  • Both sides can get a top 5 spot with wins and a bit of luck with results elsewhere. Not full research here as it is marginally a match with nothing to play for (realistically).

Las Palmas stats

  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • Won their last 3 home matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime last 8 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 all season.
  • 11 matches 0-0 or 1-0 at home at halftime.
  • Unbeaten at home v 8th and lower.
  • 21 of 31 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Alaves stats

  • 3 defeats in their last 4 matches all without scoring.
  • 8 0-0's at halftime away.
  • 4 wins and a loss away v 15th and lower.
  • 14 of 19 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Unlikely to reach European places. Unlikely to be relegated. A match perhaps to leave alone lacking real motivation to win.
  • Stats wise I would take out of the research a strong 2nd half scoring bias for Las Palmas and strong 2nd half concession bias for Alaves.
  • Lay the late 0-0 as well as Las Palmas do not tend to do 0-0's.
  • If 0-0 at halftime I would get involved in opposing said 0-0 and logic and the stats suggests Las Palmas would be the first goalscorers 2nd half.
  • With only 5 clean sheets though all season, Las Palmas themselves are vulnerable!

19:45 - Real Madrid v Barcelona - 2.14 Real Madrid

  • This is a must-win match for Barcelona, not only to salvage something from their season, but the fact is that Real Madrid lead by 3 points and have a game in hand.If Barca can wrestle 3 points from them here, they'll have gone some way to helping their title hopes.
  • In head to heads, there was a rather famous both teams to score stat which went on for 18 matches. That stat ended with a 0-4 Barca win in November 2015.
  • It has, of course, since resumed!
  • Very basic research here given this could go any way.
  • Real Madrid have not won in 16 home matches.
  • Real Madrid have scored in their last 31 matches.
  • Real Madrid have scored and conceded in 9 of their last 10 matches.
  • Real Madrid are unbeaten at home.
  • Real Madrid have drawn 1-1 twice at home to top 5 teams.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals in all Real Madrid matches.
  • Barcelona have lost 2 of their last 3 away matches.
  • Barcelona failed to score only twice.
  • Barcelona have not had a draw in 12 matches.
  • Barcelona have had only 1 0-0 all season and no away 0-0.
  • Barcelona have scored and conceded in 2 1-2 wins and a 1-1 away v top 5 teams.
  • 30 of 42 Barcelona way goals were scored 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • These matches do tend to have a life of their own. Stats wise, Real Madrid keep scoring and Barcelona have failed to score only twice.
  • The head to head both teams to score is superb despite the hiccup in November 2015. It could resume again.
  • 1-1 is an obvious trading point. It presupposes that we lay the first goal scorer, more so if Barcelona score first given the superb Real Madrid record for scoring and Barca's recent away woes.

19:45 - Juventus v Genoa - 1.2 Juventus

  • 3-1 Genoa the last time these 2 met. The market expects a Juventus win today.
  • This is 1st v 16th in Italian Seria A. Juve are 8 points clear with 6 matches remaining. Genoa have a 0 point cushion over relegation.

Juventus 100% stats

  • All home wins.
  • Unbeaten at halftime at home.
  • Scored 2+ goals in all home wins v 18th and lower.
  • Not conceded in both halves at home.

Juventus other stats

  • Failed to score in only 1 match.
  • At least one goal before halftime last 6 matches.

Genoa 100% stats

  • Not led at halftime away.
  • Not beaten a top 14 team away.
  • Not scored in both halves away.

Genoa other stats

  • Only 1 win in 16 matches.
  • Failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • 10 of 12 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Juventus should be scoring 2 goals at least today which should set them up for the win.
  • Juventus are the most probable halftime leaders.
  • Back Juventus if Genoa score first.

20:15 - -Iyon v Monaco  - 2.32 Monaco

  • 1-3 Monaco in the Iast head to head
  • This is 5th v 2nd. Monaco have a game in hand over PSG and are onIy 3 points shy
  • 4th is the best Iyon can muster this season

Iyon stats

  • 1 win in 4 was v Metz
  • 4-4-5-4 scored at home recentIy ended with 1-4 defeat Iast home head to head!
  • faiIed to score onIy 4 times
  • no draw in 16 at home
  • no 0-0 at halftime at home
  • Iost to 1st and 4th away, scoring in each one.
  • 94% over 1.5 goals at home

Monaco stats

  • just 3 defeats, one was v today's opponents
  • 12 wins and 2 1-1 draws Iast 14 matches
  • faiIed to score just once
  • not conceded 2 goaIs in an away match since 29th October 2016
  • no defeat in 11 away
  • scored in their Iast 26 matches
  • no 0-0 this season
  • not beaten top 3 away but scored 4 goaIs in each of 2 matches away v 4th and 6th

ConcIusions

  • I favour Monaco today strictly on form despite the lyon win when the teams last met.
  • lay any late 0-0
  • lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market
  • lay lyon if lyon score first. Monaco do not tend to concede 2 goals