Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

An interesting live chat yesterday. Lessons?
  • We cannot legislate for red cards. They can scupper our best-laid plans.
  • Bayern Munich? What's up with that 0-0?
  • My correct score dutching can be simplified. A simple lay of team x will suffice so do remember that. I have included a variable profit dutching calculator at the DRT Facebook page for those who see benefit in variable profit dutching in the correct score market.
  • Sometimes taking a loss is the best policy rather than waiting and hoping (Bayern again).
  • The correct score markets in a number of matches were very illiquid, so illiquid that I could not trade out on occasion. Remember that traders like liquidity in order to, well, liquidate their position!
  • Whoever gave Rotherham 13 minutes extra time is on my Christmas card list!!

On to today and it's a 14:00 start https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/6762531262475611393 is the link. I hope you see you then.
Please note that Palace v Tottenham is an 'official' lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market but my concern lays with the fact that this is a London Derby and they can go against the form. So please note that if playing.
There is the usual DRT Shortlist at DRT Facebook page along with a list of matches for possible goals before halftime.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

12:00 - C Palace v Tottenham - 1.53 Tottenham

  • This is going to be interesting....

Palace (15th)

  • Quite simply under Woy, Palace are flying at home, scoring the likes of 2-2-2-2-2-2-0-1-1. They have stumbled the last 3 matches v Man City, Burnley and Newcastle as far as scoring 2 goals is concerned.
  • Palace have scored and conceded  in 7 of their last 9 matches.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • London derbies at home? 2-1 v Chelsea, 2-3 v Arsenal, 2-2 v West Ham.

Tottenham (5th)

  • Scored in their last 15 and last 7 away.
  • Unbeaten in 9 matches.
  • No away 0-0.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Tottenham in London derbies away, 2-0 v Arsenal, 2-3 v West Ham.
  • Unbeaten v 9th and lower.

Conclusions

  • What chance a 3-2 or a 2-3? Very speculative, big odds, could be tradable if the London derby patterns of both teams continue.
  • London derbies could go any way. I wonder if Palace's recent home tally of 0-1-1 is a cause for concern?
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market but remember this is a London derby.

14:05 - Man Utd v Chelsea - 2.28 Man Utd

  • Chelsea have won 3 of the last 4 head to heads, albeit at home. Man Utd won the last home head to head.

Man Utd (2nd)

  • 2 losses in 3 matches came away.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Only home loss v 1st in the league.
  • That was the only match v top 4 at home.
  • 19 of 29 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • 4 of only 5 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Chelsea (4th)

  • 2 losses in 3 v Bournemouth and Watford surprised many.
  • Only 1 0-0 away.
  • Scored and conceded without defeat v top 7 away 1-1 or 1-2.

Conclusions

  • As ever, these top 4 clashes are tough to read. I note both teams have had recent clean sheet patterns but both sides have had 2 defeats in 3 against teams they were expected to perform better against.
  • There is missing form with United and top 4 at home so tough to gauge their set up. Chelsea away have 1-1 or 1-2 scorelines v top 7 which is interesting.
  • Man Utd this season have been very tough to score against at home. Only 5 goals. This suggests that Chelsea may find it hard to score a 2nd goal ....so lay Chelsea if they lead 0-1?

FRENCH LIGUE 1

14:00 - Bordeaux v Nice - 2.2 Bordeaux

  • Nice are unbeaten in the last 3 head to heads.

Bordeaux (8th)

  • 4 wins and a loss last 5 matches.
  • 2 consecutive home wins scoring 3 goals.
  • No draw in 13 matches.
  • 5 wins and 2 losses v 10th and lower at home.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals at home.
  • 12 of 16 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Nice (9th)

  • 3 losses and a draw last 4 matches.
  • No win in 4 away.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 7 away matches.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in their last 3 away.
  • Messy away form but wins v 6th and 8th and 16th.
  • 9 of 13 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Bordeaux home matches tend to 2+ goals total so note that.
  • Nice tend to score and concede so lay Nice if they score first particularly with Bordeaux scoring 3 goals in their last 2 home matches.

16:00 - Lyon v St Etienne - 1.53 Lyon

  • 2-0 St Etienne and 0-5 Lyon in the last 2 head to heads.
  • Lyon have won 7/11 home matches against middle-third teams while Saint-Etienne have lost 9/10 away matches against top-six teams.
  • Saint-Etienne have had L/L double results in 7/10 away matches against top-six teams.

Lyon (4th)

  • 3 losses and a draw last 4 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches including the last match at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • In 7 of 9 matches at home v top 14, Lyon scored at least 2 goals.

St Etienne (11th)

  • 3 wins and a draw last 4 matches.
  • 2 consecutive away wins to nil.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away. Not led at halftime away.
  • All defeats away v top 10.
  • 3-4-2-3-5 goals home and away v top 4 conceded.
  • 7 of 8 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Lyon are throwing in some poor performances of late and that last loss v Rennes at home saw them fail to score where they are usually reliable for 2 goals v top 14 teams.
  • St Etienne tend to lose to top 10 and concede 2+ goals. Do you have faith that Lyon can revert to scoring 2+ goals v a team tending to concede them v top 4 home and away?

20:00 - Paris St-G v Marseille - 1.26 PSG

  • 1-5 PSG and 2-2 in the last 2 head to heads.

PSG (1st)

  • Only 2 defeats came away from home.
  • 14 wins in 16 matches.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • 5 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • 13 consecutive home wins.
  • Scored in their last 19 matches.
  • 2+ goals scored in their last 13 at home.
  • Unbeaten at halftime.
  • Yet to play the top 3 at home.
  • Tend to score first and lead at halftime at home.

Marseille (3rd)

  • Only 3 defeats all season.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • Scored 2+ goals in 8 of their last 10 matches.
  • No 0-0 away.
  • Lost away v 2nd and 4th. It may be a step too far.

Conclusions

  • I was going to say PSG looked a little short given Marseille have lost only 3 but then I see Marseille losses away v top 4 twice and that may seal their fate today.
  • If PSG continue to score 2+ goals today that should be enough....or will it given Marseille have scored 2+ goals in 8 of their last 10 matches.
  • I would lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market although a top 3 clash may see an improved Marseille performance defensively.

SPANISH LA LIGA

11:00 - Villarreal v Getafe - 1.85 Villareal

  • 4-0 Getafe earlier this season was a shock for Villareal.

Villareal (6th)

  • 2 losses and a draw last 3 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • Failed to score only once since 1st October 2017.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 4 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • Losses at home v 1st, 5th and 16th.
  • 9 of 12 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Getafe (9th)

  • 4 draws in 5 matches.
  • Failed to score in their last 3 matches.
  • No win in 9 away.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Only 1 away win v 13th.
  • 9 of 12 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Both sides concede 75% of their goals 2nd half so fear not a 0-0 at halftime.
  • Villareal are highly likely to keep up their strong scoring record so note that.
  • Getafe are unlikely to repeat their earlier season spanking. Only 1 away win suggests poor travelling.
  • 2 Villareal losses came v top 5 suggests they should cope with today's match.

15:15 - Athletic Bilbao v Malaga - 1.71 Ath Bilbao

  • 1-0 Athletic and 3-3 last 2 head to heads.

Athletic Bilbao (14th)

  • Only 2 losses in 13 matches came last 2 away matches.
  • DDDWDD (D=Draw, W-Win) recent home matches.
  • Failed to score in their last 3 matches.
  • No defeat in 6 at home.
  • 8 consecutive under 2.5 goals at home.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Only home defeats v top 2.
  • 4 0-0's at home is quite high relatively speaking.

Malaga (20th)

  • 7 defeats and 2 draws last 9 matches.
  • 5 recent 1-0 defeats.
  • 1-0, 1-0, 1-1, 1-0 in the last 4 aways.
  • Failed to score in 7 of their last 9 matches.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Only 1 away win.
  • 15 of 20 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • On probability alone Malaga are unlikely to win. They have though kept things very tight in defeat, 1-0's being noticeable lately.
  • Big % 0-0's at halftime so no surprise to see 0-0.
  • A likely Bilbao win ? 1-0 or 2-0.

17:30 - Valencia v Sociedad - 1.75 Valencia

  • 3-2 Sociedad, 2-3 Sociedad and 2-3 Valencia. Fun and games last 3 head to heads.

Valencia (4th)

  • All losses this season came since 3rd December.
  • 3 losses ended with 2 consecutive wins now.
  • Scored and conceded in 8 of their last 10 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 12 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 100% win record v 8th and lower at home scoring 2+ goals in all bar 1 match.

Sociedad (12th)

  • Only 2 wins in 7 came at home.
  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • No win in 7 away.
  • Only 1 0-0 away.
  • 100% defeats v top 4 scoring in each defeat.
  • 7 of 9 away 2nd half goals came last 15 mins.

Conclusions

  • Both teams to score is a very strong stat here.
  • I would lay Sociedad if they lead by 2 goals here. They tend to score and concede in defeat v top 4.
  • Valencia are in that section of the season where they have been collecting defeats so watch out. They are more vulnerable than earlier season.
  • If you want a fun play, back 3-2 and 2-3 and hope the characteristic head to head keystone cops defending rears its head.

19:45 - Sevilla v Atletico Madrid - 2.4 Atl Madrid

  • 2 consecutive Sevilla wins came in the Cup. Atl Madrid won the last 2 La Liga matches.

Sevilla (5th)

  • Only 1 loss in 5 matches.
  • But only 3 wins in 10 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Not played top 6 at home yet.
  • 12 of 18 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • Scored first 8/11 at home.

Atl Madrid (2nd)

  • 6 wins in 7 matches.
  • Only 1 loss.
  • 11 clean sheets in 14 matches.
  • Scored in their last 7 matches.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away.
  • 4 clean sheets and a 1-1 home and away v top 5.
  • Only played one of the top 6 away.
  • 0-0 and 0-1 v top 7 away.

Conclusions

  • I am not sure why Sevilla are given a chance here by the market. They have had a really poor run but come out with it with only 1 loss in 5 matches now.
  • They have not played the top 6 at home yet, but on form this could be a 0-0 or 0-1 Atl Madrid.

ITALIAN SERIA A

11:30 - Crotone v Spal - 2.38 Crotone

  • 1-1 when these 2 met earlier this season.
  • Bottom 4. Can we trust these 2?

Crotone (17th)

  • 3 1-1 draws and a 3-2 loss last 4 matches.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • Draw v 14th, 1-0 win v 15th, 0-0 v 19th and 2-0 v 20th will give us a clue as to possible scores today.

SPAL (18th)

  • Only 3 wins.
  • 3 consecutive defeats to nil.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Only away win v bottom.

Conclusions

  • Don't discount a tight match given the need for points. On a very strict reading of the form, Crotone have consistently shown an ability to cope with 14th and lower at home and may edge this or worst case draw.
  • Only 2 clean sheets for SPAL suggests they will concede.....eventually.

14:00 - Fiorentina v Chievo - 1.51 Fiorentina

  • 0-3 Fiorentina and 2-1 Chievo in the last 2 head to heads.

Fiorentina (11th)

  • Only 1 win in 7 matches.
  • 2 consecutive home defeats.
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home (41%).
  • v 7th-16th at home, Fiorentina are unbeaten.

Chievo (15th)

  • Only 2 wins in 16 matches.
  • Lost their last 5 away matches.
  • Conceded in their last 9 and last 7 away.
  • Unbeaten away v 9th-16th away.
  • Not led at halftime away.

Conclusions

  • Both sides are unbeaten v middle third sides so I am not sure why Fiorentina are such short priced favourites.
  • I would personally take a chance and lay Fiorentina leading today. The odds will be short enough. Remember Fior have scored and conceded in 6/7 at home.

14:00 - Sampdoria v Udinese - 1.97 Sampdoria

  • 1-1 and 4-0 Udinese last 2 head to heads.

Sampdoria (6th)

  • Unbeaten in 5 at home.
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Only 1 loss v teams below them in the league at home.
  • 19 of 29 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Udinese (10th)

  • Only 1 win in 7 spoils what was a resurgence.
  • 2 defeats in 3 away without scoring.
  • No 0-0.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • 5 losses and a win v Inter Milan away v top 11.
  • 12 of 18 goals conceded away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • On a strict reading of the form, we lay Udinese if they lead as they tend to lose to top 11.
  • Sampdoria look good at home v teams below them in the league. They do score a large proportion of home goals 2nd half.
  • I would have layed the 0-0 in the halftime score market for Udinese as they conceded 67% of away goals 1st half but Samp have had a largish 6 0-0's at halftime at home.

14:00 - Sassuolo v Lazio - 1.95 Lazio

  • 3 consecutive Lazio wins in head to heads did see both teams score.

Sassuolo (16th)

  • No win in 7 matches.
  • Failed to score in 4 of those matches.
  • 5 0-1 defeats and 5 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Only 2 wins at home v 5th and 17th. I would dismiss the win v Inter Milan as it is more about Inter faltering of late.
  • Only scored that 2nd goal once at home.
  • Only 5 home goals scored, 4 2nd half.

Lazio (4th)

  • 3 losses in 4 matches.
  • 2 consecutive away defeats albeit v Napoli and Milan.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • 100% away wins v 12th and lower scoring 2+ goals.

Conclusions

  • Lazio have a chance to return to winning ways today. They play a team in a part of the league in which Lazio win and score 2 goals.
  • Sassuolo have only scored that 2nd goal once at home so lay them if they score first.

14:00 - Verona v Torino - 1.76 Torino

  • 2-2, 0-0, 2-2 last 3 head to heads.

Verona (19th)

  • 7 defeats in their last 8 matches.
  • Failed to score in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • 6 defeats in their last 7 home matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 2 wins at home v 7th and 20th.

Torino (9th)

  • Only 2 losses in 15 came v the top 2 in the league.
  • 5 draws in 6 away matches.
  • Both teams scored in the last 4 away matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 away.
  • Unbeaten v 12th and lower but away, 4 score draws and a 0-1 v 13th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Torino should not lose but do have to try and break an unhealthy draw habit away v 13th and lower.
  • They catch Verona on a losing pattern and Torino will be confident, having only lost to the top 2 in the league in their last 15 matches.
  • You could lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based more on Verona.
  • Verona are layable if scoring first and they could score given Torino's drawitis.

17:00 - Juventus v Atalanta - 1.42 Juventus

  • 2 consecutive 2-2 results in Seria A head to heads, albeit at Atalanta.
  • This will be the first of 2 consecutive meetings, one in the league today and one in the Coppa Italia next week (0-1 Juve in that match).

Juventus (2nd)

  • 11 clean sheets in 12 matches.
  • 9 consecutive wins.
  • No defeat in 12.
  • 5 consecutive home clean sheets.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • 19 wins and a 2-2 v 7th and lower.
  • Scored first in 10/12 at home.

Atalanta (8th)

  • 2 consecutive 1-1 draws.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • No defeat in 6 away.
  • No 0-0.
  • Beat Roma away but 3-1 loss away v 1st, 2-0 v 5th and 3-1 v 6th.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals away.
  • 12 of 16 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Both teams will be keen to lay down a marker for the Coppa Italia clash to follow.
  • On form, we expect a Juventus win, given they are so hard to score against at home. Atalanta did beat Roma away but tend to lose albeit they can get a goal.
  • Atalanta tend to concede mostly 2nd half away so note that if 0-0 or 0-1 at halftime.
  • The odds are a little tentative so the market hints at a tougher ask for Juve but Juve should eventually prevail.
  • 2 consecutive 2-2's in head to heads should end today.

19:45 - Roma v AC Milan - 1.98 Roma

  • Roma have won the last 4 head to heads.

Roma (3rd)

  • A run of 6 without a win ends with 3 consecutive wins.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • 3 at home without a win, 2 consecutive defeats, ended with a 5-2 home win v Benevento.
  • We cannot really gauge from this what shape Roma are still in.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 4 defeats at home came v top 8 so may be vulnerable today.
  • 9 of 13 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

AC Milan (7th)

  • 5 wins and a draw last 6 matches.
  • Draw, Win, Draw, Win away recently.
  • No away 0-0.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Lost all aways v top 6.

Conclusions

  • Tough to call given both sides are vulnerable to losses v top 8 teams, Roma at home, and Milan away.
  • For me AC Milan have the recent momentum, Roma have stuttered after 6 without a win. They ended 2 consecutive home defeats with a win v Benevento which was highly expected.
  • I would lay any late 0-0.
  • I would look to lay Roma if they lead 1-0 for any amount of time.

SCOTTISH PREMIER LEAGUE

13:30 - Aberdeen v Celtic - 1.75 Celtic

  • 9 consecutive Celtic wins in head to heads. They have 2 consecutive 3-0 wins.

Aberdeen (3rd)

  • 3 wins in 4 matches.
  • 4 wins and a 0-0 in 5 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • In 5 matches v the top 2, Aberdeen have lost them all.

Celtic (1st)

  • Only 2 defeats came away.
  • 2 matches without a win...the longest sequence this season.
  • Failed to score in 2 matches, the longest sequence this season.
  • 4 clean sheets out of 4 v top 3 this season.

Conclusions

  • Very tentative odds for a team with 2 consecutive 3-0 wins this season v Aberdeen. It betrays recent winless form.
  • I would look at Celtic ending their scoreless streak at the very least today.
  • On a strict reading of the form, Aberdeen will continue to lose to top 2 teams and Celtic keep a clean sheet.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

11:30 - Ajax v ADO Den Haag - 1.16 Ajax

  • 3-0 Ajax and 1-1 in the last 2 head to heads.

Ajax (2nd)

  • 11 wins and 2 draws in 13 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 1 match.
  • 7 consecutive home wins.
  • Scored in their last 12 at home.
  • Scored 2+ goals in each of their last 7 at home.
  • 2 home losses v 5th and 7th.
  • 24 of 33 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

ADO Den Haag (8th)

  • Only 1 loss in 7 matches.
  • Only 1 win in 7 away matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 away.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away.
  • All defeats away v top 7 failing to score in 4 of 5 matches and conceding 2+ goals.

Conclusions

  • On form Ajax should be scoring 2/3 goals and winning today.

15:45 - Utrecht v Twente - 1.64 Utrecht

  • 3-0 Utrecht and 4-0 Twente last 2 head to heads.
  • I think Utrecht are the better side this season.

Utrecht (5th)

  • Only 1 loss in 15.
  • 3 consecutive wins.
  • 4 draws and 2 wins last 6 home.
  • Scored and conceded in 12 of their last 15 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • No defeat in 9 at home.
  • Only home loss v 1st.
  • 2-0, 2-0, 1-0 at home v bottom 4.

Twente (16th)

  • Only 4 wins this season.
  • 4 defeats in 5 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Not led at halftime away. 6 0-0's at halftime away.
  • All defeats away v top 9.
  • Conceded 2 at least in all defeats v top 6 away.
  • 14 of 20 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Twente are a pale imitation of their former selves. Champions under Schteve 'how you shay' McClaren and his magic umbrella.
  • On current form, Utrecht will be eyeing a win, scoring 2 goals at least today. With 6 0-0's at halftime away for Twente we may have to wait for goals.
  • Utrecht do intriguingly score and concede perhaps a bit too often so do take on any Twente lead today.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 - Leverkusen v Schalke - 1.91 Leverkusen

  • 1-4 Schalke and 1-1 Leverkusen last 2 head to heads.

Leverkusen (4th)

  • Only 2 losses in 18 matches.
  • Failed to score in 2 recent matches but scored 2 goals last match.
  • Lost 2 of their last 3 at home.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Not actually beaten a top 11 side at home 1-3, 1-1, 2-2, 2-2, 0-2.

Schalke (6th)

  • 2 2-1 losses in 3 consecutive 2-1 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 10 of their last 11 matches.
  • Scored in their last 17 matches.
  • Not beaten top 10 away.
  • Scored and conceded v top 5 away.
  • 2-1, 4-4, 2-2, 3-1 away v top 5.
  • 12 of 16 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Leverkusen are back and scoring after their only 2 clean sheets this season. Trust them here today v a Schalke tending to concede 2+ goals v top 5 away.
  • Both teams could score today and 2-2 does appeal as a trading angle.
  • Leverkusen for me could come out of this match with a draw or win.

17:00 - RB Leipzig v FC Koln - 1.57 RB

  • 3-1 Leipzig and 1-2 Leipzig in the last 2 head to heads.

RB Leipzig (5th)

  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • No defeat in 3 at home.
  • Scored in their last 11 at home and last 9 overall.
  • No 0-0.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Only 1 loss at home.
  • Scored 2+ goals at home in all bar 2 matches.
  • Led at halftime in 7/11 at home.

FC Koln (18th)

  • 9 matches under new manager. 1-0 loss v Bayern, 1-0 win, 2-1 win, 0-2 win, 1-1, 2-3 loss v Dortmund, 4-2 loss, 1-1.
  • Loss, Win, Loss away under new manager.
  • In their last 6 matches, Koln have seen a goal at least before halftime.

Conclusions

  • FC Koln may be competitive today as you see above under the new manager.
  • RB Leipzig could score 2 goals and if leading 2-0 I would actually lay them. A worry that Koln lost 4-2 v Frankfurt but 2-3 v Dortmund and only 1 -0 loss to Bayern suggests competitiveness from Koln.
  • I would take a chance and lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

12:00 - Cardiff v Bristol City - 2.12 Cardiff

  • 2-3 Cardiff and 2-1 Bristol in the last 2 head to heads.

Cardiff (2nd)

  • Unbeaten in 7.
  • 3 consecutive clean sheets.
  • No draw in 9 at home.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 2 losses at home v 5th and 9th.
  • 4 clean sheets in 5 home matches v top 8.

Bristol City (6th)

  • 3 consecutive draws.
  • Only 1 win in 9 matches.
  • Only 1 defeat away v top 18.
  • 3-3 v 1st away and 5-0 away v 3rd. 0-0 away v 4th.

Conclusions

  • Advantage Cardiff today? Bristol City conceded 8 goals in 2 matches v top 3.
  • I would lay Bristol City if Bristol City score first. Note Cardiff's clean sheets v top 8 at home. So, will Bristol really score 2 goals?