Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

Yesterday was a lesson in sticking or twisting! In the Hull v Burnley match for instance, I advised backing 2-1/1-2 correct scores, both at around 30/1. This was at the start of the second half at 0-0. Fast forward to the 76th minute at 1-1 and both 2-1 and 1-2 odds reduced dramatically to allow a profit. Stick with the profit and trade out now? Or twist and hope for that tantalisingly close 3rd goal? (which did not come). Decisions decisions. Nice to be in that position though isn't it?
I will begin the live chat at 14:00 in order to give the 2 13:30 kick-offs time to breath and for us to dive into Italian Seria A. See you here at 14:00.

11:30 - Palermo v Sampdoria - 2.48 Palermo

Palermo stats

  • Soccerstats.com is down at the moment.
  • Only 3 wins.
  • Only 1 home win.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 home clean sheet.
  • Sampdoria are 10th. Palermo have lost all home matches v top 13 sides.
  • Palermo are yet to score 2 goals at home.

Sampdoria stats

  • Only 2 wins away.
  • Only 6 clean sheets.
  • Only 2 away clean sheets.
  • Unbeaten v 16th and lower, albeit 3 draws in 3 matches v bottom 3 sides.

Conclusions

  • Sampdoria should not lose today but a draw is not out of the question.
  • Palermo keep losing v top 13 sides. Is that enough to side with Sampdoria? Palermo tend not to score 2 goals at home so lay them if they score first.

12:00 - Norwich v Ipswich - 1.76 Norwich

  • 1-1 the last time these 2 met in the English Championship.

Norwich 100% stats

  • All wins at home v 11th and lower (Ipswich are 14th).

Norwich other stats

  • Only 1 loss in their last 7 matches.
  • Scored 2+ goals in 5 of 7 matches.
  • 3-3-2-5-2 goals scored in recent home matches.
  • Scored in their last 9 home matches.
  • 69% over 2.5 goals at home.
  • 17 goals scored at home in the first half hour of matches.
  • 12 of 15 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Ipswich 100% stats

  • No away match with exactly 4 goals.

Ipswich other stats

  • 3 score draws in their last 4 matches.
  • 12 halftime scores 1-0 or 0-0.

Conclusions

  • Norwich are likely to score first and lead at halftime. They tend to concede, if conceding, in the second half.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market, so says Norwich's superb quick home scoring.
  • I would lay Ipswich if Ipswich scores first.

13:30 - Feyenoord v PSV - 2.54 Feyenoord

  • 3 consecutive PSV wins ended with a 0-1 Feyenoord win in the last Dutch Eredivisie head to head.

Feyenoord 100% stats

  • Unbeaten at home.
  • Unbeaten at halftime at home.
  • Scored in all home matches.
  • 92% over 1.5 goals at home.

Feyenoord other stats

  • 6 consecutive clean sheet wins.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • Only scored one goal max v top 3 sides.
  • Led at halftime in 10/12 home matches.

PSV 100% stats

  • Unbeaten away.
  • 0-1 loss and 1-1 v top 2.
  • No 1-0 or 0-1 away.

PSV other stats

  • Only defeat v Feyenoord 0-1.
  • 6 consecutive wins scorinf 2-4 goals.
  • 8 goals scored last 15 minutes away.

Conclusions

  • This is likely to be a chess match. 1-0, 0-1 likely end score?
  • I have no strong angles bar laying a late 0-0.

13:30 - Tottenham v Stoke - 1.44 Tottenham

Tottenham 100% stats

  • Unbeaten at home.
  • Scored every home match.

Tottenham other stats

  • Lost their last match.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • 4 clean sheets in their last 6 matches.
  • 7 consecutive home wins.

Stoke City 100% stats

  • No 0-0 away.
  • All defeats v top 5 teams.
  • Not beaten any side above them.

Stoke City other stats

  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 5 away matches.
  • 3+ goals conceded v the top 5 so far.

Conclusions

  • At their best today (and provided there is no Europa League hangover) Tottenham should retain their unbeaten run at home and even score 3+ goals. That is the amount Stoke keep conceding v the top 5.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. It tends to come in frequently with Stoke. Both sides have a good scoring record this season so a Stoke goal would not surprise. Stoke should be layable if scoring first.

14:00 - St Etienne v Caen - 1.84 St Etienne

St Etienne 100% stats

  • Unbeaten at home v teams below them in the league (St Etienne are 5th and Caen are 15th).
  • No over 4.5 goals matches at home.
  • Not conceded in both halves at home.

St Etienne other stats

  • Unbeaten in 6 at home.
  • Only 1 home defeat.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 12 of 18 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Caen 100% stats

  • Not led at halftime away.
  • 3 defeats from 3 matches v top 6 teams away.
  • All defeats away by either 1 goal (5 matches) or 2 goals (5 matches).

Caen other stats

  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • 3 defeats in their last 4 matches.
  • Only 1 win away.
  • Opponents have scored first in 11/13 away matches.

Conclusions

  • St Etienne should not lose today.
  • Do remember that St Etienne have a strong 2nd half scoring record if not scoring by halftime.

14:00 - Chievo v Pescara - 1.93 Chievo

Chievo 100% stats

  • Unbeaten at home v teams below them in the league. Pescara are bottom.
  • Not scored in both halves at home.

Chievo other stats

  • 4-3-0-3 goals conceded in their last 4 home matches.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • All defeats bar one came v top 9 teams.

Pescara 100% stats

  • Not led at halftime away.
  • Lost all away v top 9 and meet 11th today.
  • Not scored in both halves away.
  • No 0-0 away.
  • Not scored first half away.

Conclusions

  • With only 2 wins all season for Pescara the probability is that Chievo will not lose today. Indeed Pescara have yet to meet a top 11 team so lay them if they score first.
  • Chievo tend to lose to the top 10 so really they should not be losing to bottom of the league.
  • The match may be 0-0 at halftime but fear not. I would expect 2nd half goals.

14:00 - Lazio v Udinese - 1.49 Lazio

Lazio 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 12th and lower with 10 wins and a 1-1 draw.
  • Not conceded in both halves at home.

Lazio other stats

  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 6 matches.
  • Only 1 loss at halftime at home. 6 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 9 of 11 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Udinese 100% stats

  • No over 4.5 goals matches.

Udinese other stats

  • Only 1 win in their last 7 matches.
  • Failed to score in 4 of their last 6 matches.
  • Have won away v 5th and 7th and play 6th today.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Intriguingly Udinese have won away v 5th and 7th and play 6th today but on recent form, Lazio should not lose today.
  • Lay Udinese if Udinese score first although Lazio are more likely to concede 2nd half than first.

14:00 - Sassuolo v Milan - 2.64 Milan

Sassuolo 100% stats

  • Yet to beat a top 11 team (Milan are 7th).

Sassuolo other stats

  • Only 3 draws.
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • 4 wins in their last 6 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0.

AC Milan 100% stats

  • No draw v teams 10th and lower (Sassuolo are 12th).

AC Milan other stats

  • 13 of 17 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late draw.
  • If Milan are to score it is more likely to be 2nd half.
  • I would favour Milan today so would lay Sassuolo if Sassuolo scored first.

14:30 - Ingolstadt v Mgladbach - 2.78 Ingolstadt

Ingolstadt 100% stats

  • No 0-0.

Ingolstadt other stats

  • Only 3 draws.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Only 2 home wins.
  • 7 goals conceded last 15 mins of home matches.

Mgladbach 100% stats

  • Unbeaten v bottom 4 teams and kept clean sheets v bottom 3 teams.
  • Not scored in both halves away.

Mgladbach other stats

  • 3 wins in their last 4 matches.

Conclusions

  • This could be a tight match with Mgladbach not losing on form. They have kept clean sheets v the bottom 2 teams. That is a good foundation.
  • Ingolstadt are one of those teams who could start surprising as relegation becomes more of a reality so watch that.

15:15 - Atl Madrid v Barcelona - 2.54 Barcelona

  • Atl Madrid win, 1-1, 1-2 Barcelona, 1-1 in the last 4 head to heads.

Atl Madrid 100% stats

  • Not played 2nd-8th at home.
  • All defeats have come v the top 6 teams.
  • No home matches with exactly 4 goals.

Atl Madrid other stats

  • Unbeaten in 8 matches.
  • 4 consecutive home wins.
  • 6 goals scored in the first 15 mins at home.

Barcelona 100% stats

  • Scored in all away matches.
  • Scored and conceded in all matches v top 6 teams.

Barcelona other stats

  • Failed to score in only 1 match.
  • 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.
  • No defeat in 16 matches.
  • Scored 2+ goals in 8 away matches.
  • 24 of 35 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Both teams tend to score when these 2 teams meet. Both teams also struggle to win v top 5 teams. 1-1 does sound obvious to me. I would favour Barcelona on current form if there is to be a winner.
  • Barcelona have scored in all away matches so I would expect them to score eventually if 0-0 or 1-0 for a long while.

15:45 - Ajax v Heracles - 1.2 Ajax

  • 4 consecutive Ajax head to heads in Dutch Eredivisie matches. 3 2-0 wins.

Ajax 100% stats

  • Every match must be a winning match as Ajax are a few points down in 2nd spot.
  • No 0-0.

Ajax other stats

  • Failed to score only once.
  • 6 consecutive wins.
  • 5 consecutive wins to nil.
  • Scored in their last 11 at home.
  • 9 goals scored at home directly after halftime.

Heracles 100% stats

  • Not beaten any top 7 side.
  • 2 defeats to nil at home v the top 2 teams.
  • Not scored in both halves away.

Heracles other stats

  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 7 away matches.

Conclusions

  • Ajax are highly likely to score today. A ready angle. We could see a win to nil for Ajax today.
  • Let's hope Heracles score first as then I would back Ajax.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

16:00 - Lyon v Metz - 1.25 Lyon

  • We saw last week against Dijon that, on their day, Lyon have plenty of goals in them.

Lyon 100% stats

  • No home draw.
  • Scored in every home match.
  • All wins v bottom 6 sides scoring either 2 or 4 goals (Metz are 17th).

Lyon other stats

  • Only 1 draw was a 0-0.
  • 2-3-1-4-4 goals scored in recent home matches.
  • 18 consecutive matches without a 0-0 at halftime.
  • 69% over 2.5 goals at home.
  • 9 goals scored at home in the 15 mins before halftime.

Metz 100% stats

  • Not scored in the 5 matches played away v top 8 sides.

Metz other stats

  • Failed to score in 5 of their last 6 away matches.

Conclusions

  • It does seem rather clear cut. Lyon should simply score Metz off the park. Metz may have trouble even scoring.
  • I would lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. If 0-0 at 30 mins, back Lyon in the halftime market.
  • 2-4 goals expected from Lyon today.

16:30 - Manchester United v Southampton - 1.75 Man Utd

  • This is the League Cup.
  • We have contrasting league cup form. Man Utd look to score 2-4 goals and outscore teams.
  • Southampton are purely defensive and try to nick a 1-0. Indeed 2-0, 1-0, 0-2, 1-0 and 0-1 v teams of the calibre of Arsenal and Liverpool (albeit with managers trying their hardest to look interested in the cup).
  • As you can appreciate there is little for me to work with. This is the Final at Wembley so first teams will be played. I do fancy Manchester United here not to lose in 90 minutes.

16:30 - Schalke v Hoffenheim - 2.08 Schalke

  • Well that was a shock. I thought Hoffenheim's odds would be shorter given the season they are having in the German Bundesliga.

Schalke 100% stats

  • No home 0-0.
  • Not beaten a top 5 side with season.
  • No over 4.5 goals matches.

Schalke other stats

  • Only 6 clean sheets.
  • All defeat bar one have come v teams above them in the league (Hoff are).
  • 12 of 18 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Hoffenheim 100% stats

  • Not lost to nil.

Hoffenheim other stats

  • 2 consecutive away defeats were 2-1.
  • Those were the only defeats this season.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 1 away match.
  • A lot more vulnerable away with only 3 wins.

Conclusions

  • I am not sure what is up with the market here. Do Hoff have injuries? Is it because they have lost their last 2 away matches?
  • Schalke are yet to beat a top 5 side - why do the market have them as such strong favourites?
  • I would expect Hoff to score today. This has to be a watching brief for me given that the market is so skewed.

17:00 - Anderlecht v Genk - 1.81 Anderlecht

  • 2 Anderlecht wins to nil sandwich a 5-2 Genk win in the Belgian Pro League head to heads.

Anderlecht 100% stats

  • Anderlecht could go top on goal difference with a win.
  • Unbeaten at home v top 14 (Genk are 7th).
  • Not lost to nil at home.

Anderlecht other stats

  • No defeat in 12 and in 9 at home.
  • 4 goals scored in each of their last 2 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • 10 goals scored at home last 15 mins.

Genk 100% stats

  • Not beaten a top 10 side away with a 1-1 v 1st and 7 defeats.

Conclusions

  • I think best case for Genk today is a score draw. I do not expect Anderlecht to lose and that is my angle into today's match.
  • Simple angle. Both sides have had 5 0-0's at halftime so no surprises to see a barren first half.

19:45 - Inter v Roma - 2.62 Inter

Inter 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • All wins v top 11 teams played so far.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals at home.
  • Scored in all home matches.

Inter other stats

  • 9 wins in their last 10 matches. Only loss v Juventus.
  • 8 consecutive home wins.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of 7 home matches v top 15 teams.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals at home.

Roma 100% stats

  • All defeats have come away and v the current top 10, Inter are 4th.

Roma other stats

  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • 10 wins in their last 12 matches.
  • 5 clean sheets in their last 7 matches.
  • No draw in 14 matches.

Conclusions

  • Roma are vulnerable away v top 10 teams. This match, though, is as tough as the market suggests. 2 teams in great winning form.
  • Both teams could score today (we expect 2 goals at least!).

19:45 - Villareal v Real Madrid - 1.73 Real Madrid

  • 1-0 and 1-1 in the last 2 head to heads at Villareal in Spanish La Liga.
  • Interesting!

Villareal 100% stats

  • Unbeaten this season v top 6 sides.
  • All draws v the top 3.
  • Not conceded in both halves.
  • No 1-0 or 0-1 at home.

Villareal other stats

  • 4 clean sheets in their last 6 matches.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 92% over 1.5 goals at home.
  • 8 of 9 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Real Madrid 100% stats

  • Scored in every match.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals.
  • No 0-0.

Real Madrid other stats

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • 2 losses in 3 away matches.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime away.

Conclusions

  • Villareal are likely to be really competitive today but Real Madrid are likely to score as they did when 2-0 down to Valencia.
  • That is a key angle for me. Real Madrid to score......eventually.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. Note Villareal are highly likely to concede 1st half. If that continues then we are more likely to see a first half goal.

20:00 - Marseille v Paris St Germain - 1.72 PSG

Marseille 100% stats

  • Only home loss v 1st.
  • Not lost to nil at home.

Marseille other stats

  • 3 consecutive home wins.
  • No draw in 11 and in 7 at home.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 10 clean sheets at home but comprehensively beaten by 1st in the league. There is a hint that Marseille could be tough to beat.
  • 0-0's at home v 4th, 7th and 8th.

PSG 100% stats

  • No away draw.
  • All defeats away have come v top 11 teams.

PSG other stats

  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • 9 of 13 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • You might want to back 0-0 pre-match in anticipation of a Marseille defensive masterclass. They kept PSG to 0-0 at PSG earlier this season and have umpteen clean sheets at home.
  • Add in PSG's struggles v top 11 teams away and we have a possible 0-0 to halftime at least.
  • As PSG have had no away draw (and 0-0 is a draw!!) lay any late draw.