Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

I hope you saw the value of even basic research in yesterday's live chat. It shows, for example, that the 2 Manchester clubs love a 70th minute+ goal. Why is that? 70th minute may be a key time for substitutions? It was a very good live chat last night, at least that's what my Betfair balance relays to me. The biggest lesson? Reliant Robben and Bayern rather than Rochdale! The big guns all did what was necessary. Manchester City, Juventus, Manchester United, Barcelona, even Inter Milan got in on the act and came from behind to win 1-3. Inter Milan are on my watchlist this year. It could be their year in Seria A.
So if you want to consistent profits, forget those clowns at Rochdale who could not beat 10 men, and those Chavs at Chaves who utterly dominate but do not score. Stick with 'Old Reliable'.
13:30 for live chat on Twitter @drtclub. See you there.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 - RB Leipzig v Freiburg - 1.39 RB

  • 1-4 and 4-0 for RB last year in what was a breakthrough year for them.
  • RB Leipzig have won 7/9 home matches against top-half teams while SC Freiburg have had L/L double results in 4/5 away matches against top-six teams.
  • RB Leipzig have scored first in 8/9 home matches against top-half teams.
  • 2-0 Schalke and 0-0 Freiburg in their openers. Both sides yet to win.
  • 2nd placed RB only lost 2 3 home matches last season.
  • Freiburg lost all away matches v top 6 last season.
  • We need to assume RB will be as good as last season. The market has certainly assumed this and expects a home win as per last year.

17:00 - Hannover v Schalke - 2.22 Schalke

  • 3 consecutive Schalke wins in head to heads.
  • Promoted teams have had +2.5 goals in 54% of home matches against middle-third teams since 2012-13.
  • Schalke 04 have drawn the first half in 10/14 away matches.
  • Hannover are newly promoted so a watching brief advised until we gather some form for them.

ENGLISH PREMIERSHIP

13:30 - West Brom v Stoke - 2.52 West Brom

  • West Brom has won the last 3 head to heads 1-0, 2-1, 1-0 -typical Pulish scorelines at home. Will home advantage continue as Stoke visit again?
  • WBA have scored first in 11/17 home matches against middle-third teams while Stoke have lost 13/14 away matches against top-six teams.
  • Stoke have had L/L double results in 7/10 away matches against top-six teams.
  • 4 1-0 scorelines in these 2 teams' 4 matches this season. 2 1-0 wins for West Brom, a win and a loss for Stoke.
  • Back 0-0 pre match perhaps? In the expectation for a tight match?

13:30 - Chelsea v Everton - 1.43 Chelsea

  • 8 goals scored and none conceded in Chelsea's favour in the last 2 head to heads.
  • Chelsea have won 8/8 home matches against top-half teams while Everton have conceded first in 9/16 away matches.
  • Everton have drawn the first half in 6/9 away matches against middle-third teams.
  • Both teams have scored in Chelsea's 2 matches, a loss and a win. The loss was care of 2 red cards.
  • Everton beat Stoke 1-0 and nearly beat 10 man Man City 0-1 but City equalised.
  • Only 2 matches but a feeling Everton has been working on their defending.Chelsea, for me, are too short with that in mind.
  • Hazard is still out for Chelsea. I do feel this could be another prolonged 0-0 as Everton are build to be tough to score against.

16:00 - Liverpool v Arsenal - 2.22 Liverpool

  • 3-4-3 goals scored by Liverpool in the last 3 head to heads. 3-3-1 goals conceded in those 3 matches.
  • There have been +2.5 goals in 7/8 Liverpool home matches against middle-third teams and in 9/11 Arsenal away matches against top-six teams.
  • There have been +3.5 goals in 7/10 Arsenal away matches against top-six teams.
  • This match is too tight to call. We will see how it unfurls inplay.

16:00 - Tottenham v Burnley - 1.29 Tottenham

  • 2-1, 0-2 Tottenham in the last 2 head to heads and similar is in store today.
  • Spurs have won 13/14 home matches while Burnley have lost 8/10 away matches against middle-third teams.
  • Burnley have lost by two or more goals in 5/10 away matches against middle-third teams.
  • Win, Loss for both sides so far this season. Tottenham were the better side attacking stats-wise against Chelsea and really will put Burnley to the sword at Wem-ber-ley.

SPANISH PRIMERA LIGA

17:15 - Espanyol v Leganes - 2.1 Espanyol

  • Espanyol won to nil in the last 2 head to heads.
  • Espanyol have drawn the first half in 10/14 home matches while there have been -2.5 goals in 5/7 Leganes away matches against top half non-Big Two teams.
  • Leganes have conceded first in 12/15 away matches.
  • 1-1 draw for Espanyol in their opener. 1-0 Leganes win in theirs.
  • No strong angles here early on.

17:15 - Eibar v Athletic Bilbao - 2.68 Eibar

  • 3 consecutive head to head wins for Bilbao.
  • There have been -2.5 goals in 10/13 Eibar home matches against top half non-Big Two teams and in 7/9 Ath. Bilbao away matches against middle-third teams.
  • Ath. Bilbao have drawn the first half in 6/10 away matches against middle-third teams.
  • The market cannot split these 2 teams despite the head to heads.
  • 0-1 win for Eibar and 0-0 for Bilbao v Getafe in their opening matches.
  • Both top 10 teams last season, only 3 wins for Eibar v the top 9 included 2 wins v Villareal.
  • All bar 2 of Bilbao's losses last year came away. The probability for a loss increases when Bilbao is away from home.

19:15 - Getafe v Sevilla - 2.14 Sevilla

  • No head to heads since March 2016.
  • Sevilla have won 6/10 away matches against promoted teams and they have scored first in 6/10 such matches.
  • Promoted teams have had -2.5 goals in 56% of home matches against top-six teams since 2012-13.
  • 2 draws for these 2 at the start of the season. 0-0 for Getafe and 1-1 for Sevilla.
  • Getafe is a newly promoted side so a watching brief. Bilbao dominated Getafe's opener without scoring.

21:15 - Real Madrid v Valencia - 1.18 Real Madrid

  • Both teams have scored in the last 9 head to heads.
  • 2-2, 3-2, 2-1 in the last 3 head to heads in Madrid.
  • Real Madrid have won 18/20 home matches against middle-third teams while Valencia have lost 9/14 away matches.
  • Real Madrid have had W/W double results in 10/13 home matches against middle-third teams.
  • 2 wins to nil for both sides in their openers.
  • This is a match where historically Valencia play above themselves. Back 2-2 pre match if you think this both teams to score, competitive head to head sequence continues.
  • Real Madrid look the real deal this year and I expect a win. Their odds suggest 3/4 goals from them. Head to heads suggest a more competitive match.

ITALIAN SERIA A

17:00 - Torino v Sassuolo - 1.76 Torino

  • 0-0 and 5-3 Torino in the last 2 head to heads.
  • There have been +3.5 goals in 7/10 Torino FC home matches and +2.5 goals in 7/9 Sassuolo away matches against middle-third teams.
  • Sassuolo have conceded first in 6/8 away matches against middle-third teams.
  • Draws in their openers for these 2.
  • 9th v 12th from last year.
  • Torino were superb at home last year. They only lost to Juventus and Napoli.
  • Sassuolo scored and conceded in every away match v top 15 last season.
  • Will we see, therefore, both teams scoring without Sassuolo winning? Are you happy with that angle and an assumption both teams will play to last year's patterns?

19:45 - Chievo v Lazio - 2.08 Lazio

  • 1-1 and 0-1 Chievo in the last 2 head to heads.
  • Chievo have conceded first in 7/10 home matches against top-six teams while Lazio have won 7/13 away matches.
  • Chievo have lost 6/8 home matches against top-six teams.
  • Mild panic from Lazio who failed to beat newcomers Spal at home (a match no down ringed as a 3 pointer).
  • 1-2 Chievo win in their opener.
  • Lazio were 5th last season and Lazio were unbeaten home and away v top 9 teams.
  • Chievo won only 2 matches home and away v top 9 teams.
  • On form, Lazio are likelier not to lose than Chievo.

19:45 - Crotone v Verona - 2.44 Crotone

  • No recent Seria A head to heads.
  • Crotone have scored first in 8/14 home matches while promoted teams have conceded first in 66% of away matches against bottom-six teams since 2012-13.
  • Promoted teams have lost 59% of away matches against bottom-six teams since 2012-13.
  • Both sides lost to big name teams, conceding 3 goals. This match offers these 2 teams an obviously easier assignment.
  • AS there has been no head to heads in Seria A, I will have to trade via inplay stats.

19:45 - Fiorentina v Sampdoria - 1.91 Fiorentina

  • 3 consecutive score draws in head to heads.
  • Fiorentina have won 12/17 home matches against middle-third teams while Sampdoria have lost 11/17 away matches against top-half teams.
  • Fiorentina have scored first in 8/9 home matches against middle-third teams.
  • Fiorentina lost their opener 3-0 v Inter. Sampdoria beat Benevento 2-1.
  • Fiorentina were superb at home, with only 1 loss.
  • Sampdoria won only 4 away matches last season, 3 were 0-1 wins.

19:45 - Napoli v Atalanta - 1.45 Napoli

  • Atalanta won the last 2 head to heads.
  • Napoli have won 9/12 home matches while Atalanta have lost 11/20 away matches against top-six teams.
  • Napoli have won by two or more goals in 8/12 home matches.
  • 3rd v 4th in Italian Seria A.
  • Napoli lost only 4 matches last season, twice to Atalanta. Only the top 4 could beat Napoli.
  • Atalanta won only 1 match away v top 11 teams and that was v Napoli.
  • The market expects Napoli to revenge last season's Atalanta double.

19:45 - Spal v Udinese - 2.68 Spal

  • Spal are newly promoted so I will not render an opinion until we see some clear patterns from Spal.
  • Promoted teams have had +2.5 goals in 53% of home matches against middle-third teams since 2012-13.
  • Udinese have drawn the first half in 12/20 away matches.

19:45 - AC Milan v Cagliari - 1.22 Milan

  • 1-0 Milan and 2-1 Cagliari in the 2017 head to heads. Cagliari has kept the head to heads tight.
  • AC Milan have won 11/17 home matches while Cagliari have lost 6/6 away matches against top-six teams.
  • Cagliari have lost by two or more goals in 4/6 away matches against top-six teams.
  • 10 wins and 3 losses at home for AC Milan v teams 8th and lower.
  • Cagliari won only 1 match away v top 16 teams last season.
  • Milan really should be winning today. Do remember the tight head to heads.

FRENCH LIGUE 1

14:00 - Guingamp v Strasbourg - 1.93 Guingamp

  • Strasbourg are newly promoted so watching brief still.
  • Guingamp have scored first in 7/8 home matches against promoted teams while middle-third promoted teams have conceded first in 56% of away matches against middle-third teams since 2012-13.
  • Guingamp have won 7/8 home matches against promoted teams.

16:00 - Angers v Lille - 2.16 Angers

  • 0-0 and 1-2 Angers in the last 2 head to heads.
  • There have been -2.5 goals in 10/17 Angers home matches and in 12/19 Lille away matches.
  • Angers have drawn the first half in 10/17 home matches.
  • 2 draws and a win for Angers so far this season.
  • A win and 2 defeats without scoring for Lille this season.
  • No angles for me.

20:00 - Monaco v Marseille - 1.62 Monaco

  • 3-2-4-4 goals scored my Monaco in their last 4 head to heads.
  • Monaco have won 10/10 home matches and they have won by two or more goals in 7/10 home matches.
  • Marseille have lost 12/18 away matches against top-six teams.
  • Falcao is the key to Monaco. He has scored 5 goals out of the 8 Monaco has scored in their 3 wins.
  • Marseille has 2 wins and a draw.
  • This is a derby of sorts (Cote D'azur).
  • I would have to side with Monaco at the moment. They have the goals in them to get them out of any sticky mess I feel.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

11:30 - Feyenoord v Willem II - 1.20 Feyenoord

  • 3 consecutive Feyenoord head to head wins.2 1-0 wins and a 2-0 win so tight head to heads.
  • Feyenoord have had W/W double results in 7/9 home matches against bottom-six teams while Willem II have lost by two or more goals in 5/8 trips to top-six teams.
  • Willem II have had L/L double results in 5/8 away matches against top-six teams.
  • 2 wins for Feyenoord this season. 2 losses this season for Willem II.
  • Champions last season, Feyenoord were unbeaten at home.
  • Only 2 wins away v top 11 for Willem II.
  • We expect a Feyenoord win, but note the tight head to heads so do not be surprised if Feyenoord grinds out the win.

13:30 - VVV v Ajax - 1.44 Ajax

  • Ajax has won to nil in the last 3 head to heads.
  • 2 wins for VVV this season. A loss and a win for Ajax. Both teams scored in Ajax's matches.
  • There has been 3 goals before halftime in VVV's 2 matches this season. Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market?

15:45 - PSV v Roda JC - 1.08 PSV

  • 2 consecutive 4-0 PSV wins in head to heads. NO wonder the odds are so short. These odds suggests a goal before halftime at the very least. Expect 3+ goals from PSV.
  • PSV have won 17/20 home matches against bottom-six teams while Roda JC have lost 8/10 away matches.
  • PSV have won by two or more goals in 13/18 home matches against bottom-six teams.

15:45 - Groningen v Utrecht - 2.37 Utrecht

  • 1-5 Groningen and 2-3 Utrecht in the last 2 head to heads. The market cannot split these 2 teams.
  • There have been +2.5 goals in 5/8 Groningen home matches against top-six teams and in 8/8 Utrecht away matches against middle-third teams.
  • There have been +3.5 goals in 6/9 Utrecht away matches against middle-third teams.
  • A match to leave alone at this early stage of the season.

SCOTTISH PREMIER LEAGUE

12:30 - Dundee v Hibernian - 2.05 Hibernian

  • Hibs are newly promoted and I repeat. Newly promoted sides need a watching brief at this early stage.
  • Dundee have scored first in 3/6 home matches against promoted teams while top-half promoted teams have conceded first in 52% of away matches against bottom-six teams since 2012-13.
  • There have been -2.5 goals in 11/19 Dundee home matches.
  • 3 consecutive losses for Dundee. 2 wins and a loss for Hibs this season. Hibs beat a red carded Rangers 2-3 and scored 3 goals v Partick Thistle. They lost 1-3 to Hamilton.

15:00 - Ross Co v Rangers - 1.65 Rangers

  • 3 consecutive draws, 2 consecutive 1-1 draws when these 2 have met.
  • There have been +2.5 goals in 10/10 Ross County home matches and in 7/10 Rangers away matches.
  • Ross County have conceded first in 11/16 home matches against top-half teams.
  • A win and 2 defeats for Ross County.
  • Win, Loss, Draw Rangers this season.Ross's 1-2 loss v Aberdeen suggests they may struggle v Rangers.
  • Rangers loss to Hibs was care of a red card.
  • I would look to a positive Rangers result, even if Ross Co. scores first.

FINNISH Veikkausliiga

16:30 - HJK Helsinki v KuPS - 1.48 HJK

  • 1 consecutive 2-0 wins for HJK in 2017 head to heads.
  • HJK Helsinki have won 8/11 home matches while Kuopion PS have lost 13/19 away matches against top-half teams.
  • Kuopion PS have lost the first half in 7/11 away matches against top-half teams.

HJK Helsinki

  • Only 2 losses.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • 0-0 and 0-1 last 2 home matches.
  • Not conceded a first half goal at home but scored 15.

KuPS

  • Only won 1 match home and away v top 6 teams.
  • 5 wins in their last 8 matches - good form but 4 of those wins were home wins.

Conclusions

  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market or even back HJK in the halftime market, particularly if 0-0 after 15-20 minutes .
  • KuPS are statistically unlikely to win so watch that if they score first.

CROATIAN H1 LEAGUE

18:00 - Lokomotiva v Dinamo Zagreb - 1.27 Dinamo Zagreb

  • Dinamo Zagreb has tended to win head to heads. They did score and concede in 3 of their last 4 wins.
  • This league is 6 matches old so worth a look to find patterns.

Lokomotiva

  • Scored and conceded in 5 of 6 matches, and in their last 4 matches. Only one win.
  • Scored and conceded in their 3 home matches without winning.

Dinamo Zagreb

  • 5 wins and a draw.
  • 4 wins were to nil.

Conclusions

  • Don't be surprised with both teams scoring. But do be surprised if Lok score first and retain the lead. I think Zagreb are back to their best and should respond if conceding first. 2 goals + are expected from a Zagreb at their best.