Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

A lot of shortlisters today so that is a good sign in itself. They can also be found, in chronological order, at the DRT Facebook page, along with a list of matches with potential goals before halftime. Only Werder Bremen let us down in that regard yesterday and that was after having a goal cancelled out as well!
As to a live chat it will have to be a traditional website live chat. I want to do a Facebook live video today but not enough of you have joined the DRT Facebook page https://www.facebook.com/groups/288630934852757/ is the link. Please do join as I want to do a Sunday Facebook live video next weekend. I want to get into the habit of a live chat webinar Saturday and a Facebook live video Sunday (or a webinar each day.) It is clear to me that the webinars are making things a lot clearer for you all in all aspects of football trading from research, using research, researching in-play, entering and exiting markets and the various strategies.
I know there are those of you who hate social media, You can set up an account just for DRT Facebook. The live video is a facility we should not be passing up. It is free as well and videos can be watched again.
See you at 14:00 here at delayreacttrade.com and at Twitter @drtclub where it will be simultaneously broadcast. Eventually I will be doing live chat webinars or videos 100% of the time.

SPANISH LA LIGA

11:00 am - Leganes v Espanyol - 2.14 Leganes

  • 0-1 Espanyol and 0-1 Leganes last 2 head to heads.

Leganes (13th)

  • Only 2 wins in 10 matches.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • A set of 1-0 home wins v 12th, 15th and 16th.
  • 6 of 7 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Espanyol (14th)

  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • If we look at matches between 9th - 17th inclusive home and away, we see 5 1-0 results, 2 1-1's and a 0-0.
  • 5 of 6 goals scored away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • It has the feel of a drawn out 0-0 with any winning scoreline a 1-0 or a 0-1.
  • If LEganes score it is more likely to be 2nd half, Espanyol first half so a lack of congruity there.

15:15 - Atletico Madrid v Las Palmas - 1.2 Atl Madrid (shortlisted)

  • 10 goals scored by Atl Madrid last 2 head to heads.
  • Las Palmas manager 3 games in.

Atl Madrid (2nd)

  • Only 1 loss.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • 7 clean sheets in their last 10 matches.
  • No defeat in 9 at home.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • All wins v 15th and lower - 3 of those wins were 1-0.
  • 8 of 11 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • Scored first in 7/9 at home.

Las Palmas (19th)

  • 1-2 loss, 6-0 loss and 2-1 win v Valencia last 3 matches under new manager. A hugely impressive win v Valencia.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in 7 of their last 8 away matches.
  • Conceded in their last 10 away matches.
  • No win in 8 away.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in their last 7 away matches.
  • All defeats v top 10 away.
  • 18 of 25 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • The form tells us Las Palmas will highly likely not score and concede 2+ goals.
  • A simple angle. Atl Madrid have had 3 1-0 wins v 15th and lower which is a worry.

17:30 - Sevilla v Getafe - 1.56 Sevilla (shortlisted)

  • 0-1 Sevilla last match.

Sevilla (6th)

  • 4 defeats, a 0-0 and a win last 6 matches.
  • Draw and a loss last 2 at home.
  • Unbeaten at halftime at home.
  • Only 1 loss at home was 3-5 v Betis.
  • Beat 7th and 8th at home.
  • Scored first in 6/9 at home.

Getafe (9th)

  • Only 1 away win.
  • 3 consecutive away defeats.
  • Failed to score last 3 away.
  • Conceded in their last 8 away.
  • Not beaten a top 12 side away.
  • 8 of 11 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Getafe are yet to beat top 12 side and now Sevilla have solved their dire away form (2 consecutive wins all competitions), they should be confident today as they are solid at home.
  • I think Sevilla could end their winless run at home (2 matches).
  • 0-0 at halftime would not surprise by Getafe concede heavily 2nd half.

19:45 - Barcelona v Alaves - 1.1 Barcelona (shortlisted)

  • 0-2 Barcelona last head to head 2017.
  • Alaves new manager has 7 games under his belt.

Barcelona (1st)

  • Unbeaten.
  • Scored 3+ goals in each of their last 5 matches.
  • Scored in every match.
  • 100% wins v 8th and lower.

Alaves (16th)

  • Only 1 draw came last match.
  • Lost only 1-0 away v 2nd and 7th.
  • If they are to score it would tend to be 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Alaves at their best will keep it tight as per that 1-0 v Atl Madrid away but they have to stop Barcelona scoring the 3+ goals they have been scoring lately.
  • If 0-0 at halftime (and that is unlikely), expect Barcelona to score 2nd half.

ITALIAN SERIA A

11:30am - Spal v Inter - 1.7 Inter

  • 2-0 Inter in the last head to head.
  • SPAL 1907 have conceded first in 5/10 home matches while Inter Milan have scored first in 13/17 away matches against bottom-six teams.
  • Inter Milan have won 12/17 away matches against bottom-six teams.

SPAL (18th)

  • Only 3 wins.
  • Scored and conceded in 9 of their last 10 matches.
  • Scored and conceded at least 2 goals in their last 3 home matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 10 matches.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • 2-2-3-2 goals scored at home v 1st, 3rd, 9th and 10th. Again, conceding 2+ goals in those matches.

Inter Milan ( 4th)

  • A brilliant season is hitting a rocky road. 4 draws and 2 losses last 6 matches.
  • 0-1-0-0-1-1 scored recently. May not get away with it v SPAL.
  • 0-0-1 scored last 3 away.
  • 4 0-0's and 3 1-0 losses at halftime away. Note only 1 away fulltime loss.
  • 100% wins v 15th and lower scoring 2+ goals away.
  • 6 goals scored away last 15 mins of matches.

Conclusions

  • If Inter continue to be poor infront of goal as they have recently, SPAL may steal it as they tend to score 2 goals v top sides consistently at home.
  • BUT Spal do tend to concede 2 + goals as well . Can Inter take advantage?
  • Lay any team leading 2-0/0-2.
  • Inter do tend to beat teams 15th and lower scoring 2+ goals but are clearly going through a poor period.

14:00 - Crotone v Cagliari - 2.44 Crotone

  • Cagliari won the 2 2017 head to heads.

Crotone (17th)

  • Only 5 wins, did win last match.
  • 0-0-1-0 scored last 4 at home.
  • No draw in 13 matches.
  • v 15th and lower, conceded only 1-1-1-0-0-0 so a chance here.
  • 5 of 7 home goals scored first half.

Cagliari (16th)

  • Only 1 win in 8.
  • 3 1-0 defeats in the last 5 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • No 0-0.
  • 100% win record v bottom 4.

Conclusions

  • This is a match in which either side should be eyeing the win.
  • My only angle? Lay any late 0-0 as Cagliari keep avoiding 0-0. This could be 1-0 or 0-1.

14:00 - Fiorentina v Verona - 1.31 Fiorentina (shortlisted)

  • 0-5 Fiorentina in the 2017 head to head.

Fiorentina (11th)

  • Only 1 loss in 9 matches came last match.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Only home losses v 5th and 6th at home.
  • 0-5 and 0-3 wins away from home v the bottom 2.

Verona (19th)

  • Only 3 wins.
  • 4 consecutive defeats.
  • Only 6 over 2.5 goals matches.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • Only 1 away win.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in all aways v top 13 teams.

Conclusions

  • Another match where the odds look right IF Verona continue to concede 2+ goals away v top 13 teams and Fiorentina at home, are as emphatic as they were away from home.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on the expectation for goals.

14:00 - Genoa v Udinese - 2.32 Genoa

  • Udinese have a good recent record v Genoa in head to heads.
  • Will the new momentum of a new manager help that run to continue?

Genoa (15th)

  • 4 clean sheets in 5 matches and a team set up to be very difficult to score against.
  • 0-1-0-2-0-0-0-0-1 goals conceded recently. Only 1 goal conceded against the likes of Roma and Juventus.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home and yet to lead at halftime at home.
  • Not beaten a top 13 side this season.

Udinese (9th)

  • 5 wins and 2 1-1 draws under new manager.
  • 4 wins and a draw in the last 5 away matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • No 0-0 and no 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Nice run away v 12th-17th with 3 wins and a 1-1.

Conclusions

  • Genoa will set up to be very tough to beat. I would not put it past this inform Udinese to score a goal. 2 consecutive 1-1 draws currently.
  • With Genoa 0-0 is in play but note Udinese have not had a 0-0 , nor a 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Genoa have not beaten a top 13 side. Lay them if they score first?

14:00 - Napoli v Bologna - 1.2 Napoli (shortlisted)

  • 19 Napoli goals in the last 4 head to heads!

Napoli (1st)

  • The title is between Napoli and Juventus it seems.
  • And Napoli's single loss came v Juventus.
  • Not conceded a 2nd goal at home v 7th and lower.
  • 5 of 6 goals conceded at home came first half.

Bologna (12th)

  • 4 losses in 6 matches.
  • 2-2-2-3 goals conceded in their last 4 away matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime in 12 matches.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away.
  • All defeats away v top 11.
  • Scored 8 of 11 goals away 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • If Napoli are to concede it is more likely to be first half so watch out for that. If Bologna score first and early, lay them in the halftime market as they are yet to lead at halftime away.
  • Bologna are conceding 2 goals regularly away and that is not a pattern to bring into a match with league leaders. Napoli should be eyeing 3 points today.

14:00 - Torino v Benevento - 1.42 Torino (shortlisted)

  • Not full research here.
  • Torino have a touch of drawitis recently and that should end against a Benevento on 7 points whose 2 wins only came at home.
  • All defeats away for Benevento away from home and v top 10, 6 of the away defeats were 1-0 or 2-1 so Benevento may make a good fist of it.
  • 2-2-2-1 scored by Torino v bottom 4 teams. Torino did beat them 0-1 at Benevento so should repeat the dose at home. Expect 2 goals at least.

17:00 - AC Milan v Lazio - 2.44 AC Milan

  • 1-1 and 4-1 Lazio in the last 2 head to heads.

AC Milan (7th)

  • 2 consecutive wins.
  • All defeats bar 1 have come v top 8 teams. 0-2 defeats at home v top 8 teams.

Lazio (3rd)

  • 3-4-0-5-5 goals scored in recent matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Only 1 away loss in the Rome Derby.
  • 1-2 v 6th and 3-3 v 8th away.

Conclusions

  • AC Milan keep conceding 2 goals at least v top sides, in losses. And they play a Lazio with 17 goals in their last 5 matches.
  • It does suggest struggles for AC Milan today but the market is not so sure. They have 2 consecutive wins but still I return to the 100% losses v top 8 teams.

19:45 - Roma v Sampdoria - 1.34 Roma

  • 3-2 Roma and 3-2 Sampdoria in the last 2 head to heads.

Roma (5th)

  • A match played on 24th January. I wondered why this was so familiar.
  • 3 Roma home defeats came v top 8 teams at home.
  • 3 1-1 draws in 4 matches included a 1-1 v Samp last match.
  • That's both teams scoring in Roma's last 4 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • 1-1-1 scored last 3 at home. Trouble up front?
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • 3 losses at home v top 8 sides.

Sampdoria (6th)

  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 8 matches.
  • 3-0, 2-2, 3-2 and 3-2 away recently.
  • 2 3-2 losses v top 4 teams away.

Conclusions

  • It is tough to evaluate matches where teams have very recently met. Roma are having trouble scoring 2 goals recently and 1-1 Samp took advantage of that.
  • Roma are vulnerable to top 8 teams at home so I would follow this match with interest and even consider laying a 1-0 Roma lead.

SCOTTISH PREMIER LEAGUE

14:00 - Ross Co v Rangers - 1.43 Rangers (shortlisted)

  • 1-3 and 2-1 Rangers in the last 2 head to heads.

Ross Co (12th)

  • 7 defeats and 3 draws last 10 matches.
  • 2 consecutive home score draws.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 11 at home.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • 100% defeats v top 4. Any reason to expect that to end?

Rangers (2nd)

  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • 3 consecutive clean sheets.
  • Unbeaten at halftime away.
  • Led at halftime in 7/11 away.
  • Have scored and conceded in 9 away so wins require 2 goals scored at least.

Conclusions

  • Strictly on form, this should be a Rangers win, scoring 2 goals at least as they tend to concede. If Ross score first therefore, lay them.
  • Rangers have led in 7/11 away at halftime so take a chance and lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market or back Rangers in the halftime market.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 - Leverkusen v Mainz - 1.36 Leverkusen (shortlisted)

  • 0-2 Mainz and 3-1 Mainz in the last 2 head to heads.
  • Leverkusen have won the first half in 6/8 home matches against bottom-six teams while FSV Mainz 05 have had L/L double results in 6/8 away matches against top-six teams.
  • FSV Mainz 05 have lost by two or more goals in 6/8 away matches against top-six teams.

Leverkusen (2nd)

  • Only loss since 24th September was v Bayern Munich.
  • Scored in every match.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Only 1 home loss v Bayern Munich.
  • Wins at home v 16th, 17th and 18th.

Mainz (15th)

  • 2-2, 0-2 loss, 2-2, 3-2 loss, 3-2 win most recent matches. Goal fests.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • 2-2, 2-2, 3-2 scorelines away recently.
  • No win in 9 away.
  • Conceded in their last 9 away.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 7 matches.
  • Losses away v 1st and 3rd. No away win.

Conclusions

  • Leverkusen must be favoured here if Mainz are going to continue to concede 2 goals at least. On that basis, lay any Mainz lead, even 0-2.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

17:00 - Hannover v Wolfsburg - 2.46 Hannover

  • 3 score draws in 4 head to heads.

Hannover (10th)

  • Scored and conceded in 11 of their last 13 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Only 1 home loss v 7th.

Wolfsburg (13th)

  • Only 3 wins.
  • 1-1-0-0-0 scored last 5 away.
  • No win in 8 away.
  • Only 1 away win v the same side which Hannover lost to at home.

Conclusions

  • Only 1 home loss v only 1 away win? The form points to Hannover? But caution. The market cannot split these 2 sides.

FRENCH LIGUE 1

14:00 - Lille v Strasbourg - 2.14 Lille

  • 3-0 Strasbourg the last time these 2 met. I am not including the Coupe de France match. I am researching before that match has been played.

Lille (18th)

  • Only 1 win in 6 matches.
  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • Only 1 win at home v top 15.
  • 8 of 11 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Strasbourg (10th)

  • 3 defeats in 4 matches.
  • Failed to score in their last 2 away matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • No 0-0 away.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Only 2 away wins.

Conclusions

  • Not for me thanks. 2 sides in recent poor form.

16:00 - Bordeaux v Lyon - 1.97 Lyon (shortlisted)

  • 1-1 and 3-3 last 2 head to heads.

Bordeaux (12th)

  • Only 3 wins and 6 defeats in their last 9 matches.
  • Failed to score last 3 at home.
  • Failed to score in 4 of their last 6 matches. When they did score they won 0-1 away.
  • No 0-0.
  • 3-3 away at Lyon earlier this season. 1-1 at home v 3rd and 5th suggests we may see something.
  • But only 2 wins home and away v 14th and higher suggests it is less probable that we will see a win.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals.
  • 10 of 13 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Lyon (2nd)

  • 6 wins in 7 matches.
  • 5 2-1 scorelines in 8 matches, 4 of those a win.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • 1-2, 1-2, 1-2, 0-2 away recently.
  • Beat PSG 2-1 last match so must be feeling confident.
  • Scored 2+ goals in each of their last 8 matches.
  • 8 wins and a 3-3 away v 6th and lower.
  • 7 of 9 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Bordeaux have tended to score draw at home v top 5 and while that cannot be discounted, if Lyon score 2 goals, that may turn a 1-1 into another 1-2.
  • I would have to favour Lyon here on current form. They should be eyeing 2 goals at least today so lay Bordeaux if Bordeaux score first.
  • Strong 2nd half concession rate for Bordeaux so note that if 0-0 halftime. If 0-0 halftime I would back 1-2, 0-2 at enhanced odds.

20:00 - Marseille v Monaco - 1.97 Marseille

  • 4-4-6 goals scored by Monaco in recent head to heads.
  • Marseille are a little more robust this season.
  • Please note that this is a cote d'azur derby.

Marseille (3rd)

  • Only 3 losses.
  • 4 consecutive wins.
  • 3 consecutive clean sheets.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • 5 consecutive home wins.
  • Scored in their last 10 at home.
  • No 0-0.
  • 5 1-0 leads at halftime at home is 50% of matches.
  • Only played 2 of the top 8 at home, a 2-2 v 1st and a 1-3 loss v 8th.
  • 16 of 23 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Monaco (4th)

  • 5 wins and 2 draws last 7 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 away.
  • 3 losses out of 3 away v top 6 teams.

Conclusions

  • A local derby and these can be matches where it's a case of best on the night.
  • Lay any late 0-0 as these 2 tend to score a goal at least.
  • Both teams do not have winning form v fellow top 5 teams so it is tough to pick a side. Clearly Marseille are in too good form to lose 6-1 again!

ENGLISH F.A.CUP

13:30 - Chelsea v Newcastle - 1.31 Chelsea

  • Team news key in this FA Cup match. Note Chelsea went out of the League Cup mid week away at Arsenal.
  • Team news is key. I really cannot offer any pre-match research.

16:00 - Cardiff v Man City - 1.35 Man City (shortlisted)

  • This is the FA Cup. Man City are still in the League Cup.
  • Cardiff have not really met any Premier League sides recently in the FA Cup.
  • I have no strong angles suffice to say it was an extremely strong side Man City put out in the League Cup away v Bristol City.
  • Team news will be key. If we see a strong City side, I would expect those 1.35 odds to reduce.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

11:30 - Utrecht v Ajax - 1.66 Ajax (shortlisted)

  • 2 Ajax wins ended with a Utrecht win last match.

Utrecht (6th)

  • Only 1 loss in 9 matches.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 11 of their last 13 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 7 home matches.
  • Only 1 home loss v 1st in the league.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals at home.

Ajax (2nd)

  • Only 4 losses.
  • Only 2 losses in 12 matches.
  • No 0-0 away.
  • Only 2 away losses v top 2.
  • Scored first in 7/9 away.

Conclusions

  • An interesting match but the key for me may be that Ajax have only 2 losses in 12 and their 2 losses away came v the top 2.
  • I would lay Utrecht if Utrecht scores first given they tend to score and concede. They did lose to 1st in the league so may find 2nd a struggle.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals Utrecht at home suggests we will see 2 goals at least.

13:30 - Feyenoord v ADO Den Haag - 1.2 Feyenoord

  • 0-1 Feyenoord and 2-2 in the last 2 league head to heads.

Feyenoord (5th)

  • Only 2 defeats since 1st August 2017 were v Ajax.
  • Only 1 win v top 11 at home saw 1-4 loss, 0-0, 1-0, 1-1 and 1-1. Trouble scoring that 2nd goal.

ADO Den Haag (8th)

  • 3 losses in 4 away matches.
  • 3 wins in 5 matches saw ADO scoring 3-3-4 goals and beating good yardsticks in Twente and PEC Zwolle.
  • No draw in 8 away matches.
  • Conceded 2+ goals away in each of their last 4 matches.
  • 3-0, 2-0, 2-0, 2-0 losses away v top 7 teams.

Conclusions

  • There is an argument that Feyenoord cannot score that 2nd goal v top 11 teams. That if it continues will spell trouble.
  • But ADO are losing either 2-0 or 3-0 v top 7 teams away.
  • Feyenoord might get away with it today? They have only lost to Ajax since 1st August 2017 and that is solid stuff.
  • A match worth trading and I will lay Feyenoord if they lead 1-0 late on. Just in case they stumble and just in case ADO score like they have done recently.

15:45 - Willem II v AZ Alkmaar - 1.75 AZ (shortlisted)

  • Willem II do not tend to win head to heads.

Willem II (14th)

  • Only 4 wins.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 10 matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Only 1 win in 10 matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • All defeats at home v top 11.
  • All defeats v top 5 teams.

AZ Alkmaar (3rd)

  • Only 4 defeats.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Only 1 loss in 12 matches was v Ajax.
  • Scored in their last 12 matches.
  • No defeat in 8 away.
  • No 0-0.
  • Only away loss v 1st.

Conclusions

  • On form, Willem II will score and concede and not lose. A simple angle.
  • AZ are in excellent recent form.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.