Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

What a pleasant surprise in the Spanish Cup and German Cup. I put forward a lay of Barcelona if Barcelona led. They led. I layed. Alaves equalised. I profited despite Barcelona winning. Dortmund led. I layed. Frankfurt equalised. I profited despite Dortmund winning. That word 'hint' that I have been mentioning @drtclub Twitter and via DRT Facebook perfectly shown.
Today the French Open begins at 10am and even at my most optimistic I do not think there will be many 10am traders in what is a Bank Holiday Weekend.. I will not be researching today's French Open tennis. If you want to trade, there are some very obvious matches to focus on - Dimitrov, Ostapenko. Kuznetsova. Remember the men's matches are 3 setters so 1.05 is layable for me. Anything could happen. I will be tweeting @drtclub for those of you not having a lie-in on a Bank Holiday Sunday. As to the football, the basic rule is that if I can tweet I will be able to monitor the matches. There are some viable tradable matches today.
Italian Seria A ends today. Ignore the dead rubbers, focus on the battle for 2nd place and the battle for the one remaining safe spot (4th bottom).

14:00 - Hammarby v Jonkopings Sodra - 1.85 Hammarby

  • 0-1 Hammarby in the last head to head.
  • This is 8th v 11th in the Swedish Allsvenskan after 10 matches.

Hammarby

  • Only 2 defeats came away.
  • Scored and conceded in 8 matches.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • 3 draws and a win at home.
  • Unbeaten v teams below them in the league albeit 3 draws and the 2 wins v bottom 2.
  • Scored all 6 goals at home 2nd half.

Sodra

  • Only 1 away win.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 away matches.
  • Only away win v 14th.

Conclusions

  • Both teams could score today if Hammarby keep their pattern up.
  • I do think that Hammarby will not lose today despite possibly conceding.
  • Note Hammarby score 2nd half at home so if they haven't scored by halftime, they are highly likely to score 2nd half. Sodra have only 2 clean sheets.

14:00 - Cagliari v AC Milan - 1.99 Milan

  • Milan are unbeaten in the last 23 head to heads.
  • This is 13th v 6th in Italian Seria A.
  • This is a dead rubber. There is nothing for either side to gain from an additional 3 points in this last match of the season.

16:30 - IFK Goteborg v Elfsborg - 1.85 Goteborg

  • 2-2 in the last head to head.
  • This is 10th v 9th in the Swedish Allsvenskan.

IFK

  • Only 2 losses came last 2 away matches.
  • Unbeaten at home albeit 3 draws and a win.
  • 3 1-1 draws at home so not killing matches off despite scoring 3 and 4 goals in 2 of their last 3 matches.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals at home.

Elfsborg

  • 2 consecutive wins came at home.
  • Failed to score only once. 2 clean sheets only.
  • Loss, Draw, Loss last 3 away matches.
  • All defeats have come v current top 6 teams so a context there.
  • Only 1 away win though.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals.
  • No 0-0.
  • 6 of 7 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • We should expect 2 goals in total. I can see another 1-1 draw here today. Both teams look like they will score.
  • Elfsborg have failed to score only once and have not lost outside the top 6. IFK are unbeaten at home and have had 3 1-1 draw.
  • Back 1-1 and hope it returns? Normally when I expect a 1-1 though, I back 2-1 and 1-2 correct scores. If 1-1 comes up, we can trade out of the 2-1 and the 1-2.

17:00 - Brann v Aalesunds - 1.54 Brann

  • 6-0 Brann in the last head to head.
  • This is 2nd v 6th in the Norwegian Eliteserien and Brann could go top with a win.

Brann

  • Win Win Draw Win Win at home.
  • 3 consecutive wins scoring 4-5-3 goals.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • 3-3-1-4-5 goals scored at home.
  • Unbeaten at halftime at home.
  • Not played top 6 yet at home.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals at home.
  • No 0-0.
  • Scored first in all home matches.
  • Led at halftime in 4/5 at home.

Aalesunds

  • 4 wins in 5 matches.
  • 2 draws and 2 wins away last 4 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
  • 0-0 away v 1st and loss away v 5th. Lost at home to 3rd. So struggles v 2nd?

Conclusions

  • A feeling that the top teams are currently too much for Aalesunds with their winless record v 1st, 3rd and 5th. They meet a Brann yet to meet the top 6 at home but scoring 3 goals with regularity at home.
  • We should expect at least this today.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. The form suggests Brann are more likely to be leading at halftime.
  • Brann tend to score first and that will negate any trade.
  • Lay any late 0-0.

17:00 - Kristiansund v Sogndal - 2.28 Kristiansund

  • No relevant head to heads.
  • This is 13th v 11th in the Norwegian Eliteserien.

Kristiansund

  • Win, Win, Draw, Win at home recently.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Only 2 under 2.5 goals matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • 100% 0-0 at halftime at home.

Sogndal

  • Loss Loss Loss Draw Win away. A final away win.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • 2 wins in 3 matches.
  • Failed to score away v 9th, 10th and 12th.
  • Conceded 3 goals in 3 separate away matches.
  • 7 of 11 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • This match might be 0-0 at halftime. Back 0-0 pre match? Kristiansund score goals at home but 100% of them came 2nd half. Kristiansund have not conceded first half at home either.
  • Expect 2nd half goals for me. I would favour Kristiansund today Sogndal have failed to score away v 9th, 10th and 12th.

17:00 - Lillestrom v Tromso - 1.98 Lillestrom

  • Tromso won the last 2 league head to heads.
  • This is 15th v 9th in the Norwegian Eliteserien.

Lillestrom

  • 2 draws in 3 matches includes a 1-1 v Rosenborg. Shoots of recovery?
  • 4 consecutive home defeats.
  • 0-0-0-1 scored last 4 at home.
  • Only 2 wins.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • No home draw.
  • 3 of 4 home losses came v top 4 teams so not unexpected.
  • Not scored in both halves.
  • No 0-0.
  • Not scored first half this season.

Tromso

  • Scored and conceded in their last 5 matches.
  • 3 1-1 draws and a 1-2 win against Rosenborg in their last 4 matches. Both sides have reasonable results v the league leader.
  • Scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 away.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Conceded in their last 7 and last 5 away.
  • 3 defeats came v teams 4th-6th inclusive.

Conclusions

  • Lillestrom are favourites and have failed to score in 3 of their last 4 home matches. Right! That clears that up.
  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Both sides have only had the one clean sheet.
  • Lillestrom are yet to score first half. Back Tromso to open the scoring based on logic?
  • I must favour Tromso on recent form not to lose if they continue their scoring and conceding pattern.

17:00 - Molde v Stabaek - 1.96 Molde

  • 3-0 Molde in the last head to head.
  • This is 7th v 5th in the Norwegian Eliteserien after 10 matches.

Molde

  • Only 1 win in 6 matches.
  • 2 wins and 2 losses at home.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Not met top 5 yet but lost 0-1 to 6th.
  • No home 0-0.

Stabaek

  • 3 draws in 4 matches.
  • Only 2 defeats.
  • Win, Draw, Win last 3 away.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • No 0-0 away.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Not met top 8 away.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Stabaek have not had a 0-0 at halftime away but that is only 4 matches - enough to trust the lay today?

17:00 - Haugesund v Sarpsborg - 2.66 Haugesund

  • 1-1 in the last head to head.
  • This is 12th v 3rd in the Norwegian Eliteserien after 10 matches.

Haugesund

  • Failed to score in 4 of their last 6 matches.
  • 3 consecutive defeats.
  • Failed to score in last 3 at home.
  • Lost to 4th in the league.

Sarpsborg

  • Failed to score only once.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • 2 draws and 2 wins last 4 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 4 away matches.
  • Unbeaten v 9th and lower.
  • Scored and conceded away in 3 matches.

Conclusions

  • Another mystery here. Why are Sarpsborg not shorter? There must be a reason. Heck, Haugesund have failed to score in their last 3 home matches.
  • Sarpsborg must be favoured by me today. 1-1 may be worse case for them. Both teams may score. Sarpsborg have only 2 clean sheets and failed to score only once.
  • Both teams to score therefore a possible with Sarpsborg not losing.

17:00 - Sampdoria v Napoli - 1.19 Napoli

  • Both teams scored in the last 6 head to heads.
  • Both teams scored at least 2 goals in 3 of the last 4 head to heads.
  • This is 10th v 3rd in Italian Seria A. One match remains.
  • Napoli will be fully motivated here, a win could secure automatic qualification into the Champions League (dependent on Roma's result).
  • Sampdoria gain little with a win.
  • No win in 7 for Sampdoria. Sampdoria scored and conceded in their last 8 matches, much like the head to head pattern.
  • Sampdoria scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 home matches.
  • Sampdoria did beat 2nd and 4th at home so deserve some respect.
  • Napoli are unbeaten home and away v 5th and lower.
  • Napoli are undefeated in 12 away matches and scored in their last 14 away matches.

Conclusions

  • Sampdoria did beat 2nd and 4th in the league at home so note that. The market expects Napoli to win, in order to pressure Roma into winning and preserving their 2nd spot.
  • Lay Sampdoria if Sampdoria score first.....unless you are taken with their beating of 2nd and 4th in the league. Sampdoria have not had a win in 7 matches and with the expectation that both teams will score, I think laying Samp if they score first is ok today.

17:00 - Roma v Genoa - 1.07 Roma

  • 0-1 Roma win in the last head to head.
  • This is 2nd v 16th in Italian Seria A.
  • Only 3 draws for Roma this season. 1.07 odds suggest they score 3/4 goals bare minimum.
  • Roma have scored and conceded in their last 6 matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime in 16 matches for Roma.
  • Roma have scored in all 18 home matches.
  • Roma have beaten all teams 6th and lower at home.
  • Genoa have 11 defeats and a draw away v top 13 sides.

Conclusions

  • The market expects a motivated Roma to score 3/4 goals minimum today to secure their 2nd place. Roma should lead at halftime too.

19:45 - Crotone v Lazio - 2.38 Crotone

  • 1-0 Lazio in the last head to head.
  • This is 18th v 5th in Italian Seria A.
  • Crotone must win today in order to have a chance of staying up. They are in 3rd bottom position.
  • Lazio are guaranteed Europa League football and cannot be displaced in 5th place. I am not sure if 4th place will be a big motivator for them today.
  • 5 wins, 2 draws and a loss to Juventus for Crotone. Bar the Juventus loss, Crotone have been going for it in a bid to stay in Italian Seria A.
  • 2-1 v Inter Milan, 1-1 v AC Milan and 1-0 v Udinese at home last 3 for Crotone.
  • Only 1 win at home v top 11 for Crotone who will have to hope that Lazio are in end-of-season mode.
  • 2 consecutive defeats for Lazio suggests season-over.
  • Lazio have scored and conceded in their last 6 matches.
  • 6-2-2-0-2-2-3-2 goals scored by Lazio away from home.
  • Lazio are unbeaten away v teams 9th and lower.

Conclusions

  • So tough to read. Lazio are the better team. Lazio are scoring 2 goals at least in recent away matches. But Lazio have nothing to play for and are guaranteed Europa League football.
  • Crotone have been superb bar their obvious loss to Juventus.
  • Crotone beat and drew with the big Milan sides recently at home but will have to stop Lazio from scoring 2 goals away.
  • I will take a chance here and side with Crotone today and their needs must. A draw may even be ok for Crotone today in the hope that away side Empoli struggle and lose today. In-play stats will be key for me in determining Lazio's mentality.

19:00 - Valerenga v Rosenborg - 2 Rosenborg

  • 5 consecutive Rosenborg wins in head to heads.
  • This is 10th v 1st in the Norwegian Eliteserien.

Valerenga

  • Failed to score only twice.
  • 2 clean sheets in their last 3 matches were 1-0 wins.
  • Only 1 home loss.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Scored 1-1-3-1-1 at home.
  • Not met top 4 at home.

Rosenborg

  • Only 1 loss.
  • Scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • 3 wins away ended with a 0-0 last match.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • If Rosenborg are unbeaten home and away v top 8, logically is 10th place within their compass?

Conclusions

  • I must favour Rosenborg today. I will lay Valerenga if Valerenga score first as on 4 occasions at home they only scored the 1 goal.
  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Rosenborg are on a scoring and conceding pattern and if continuing they should still not lose today for the above reason.

19:45 - Fiorentina v Pescara - 1.19 Fiorentina

  • 1-2 Fiorentina the last time these 2 teams met.
  • This is 8th v 20th in Italian Seria A.
  • This is a dead rubber. Pescara are relegated. Fiorentina can reach 7th spot but gain little from going so. They are guaranteed 8th spot.
  • 2-2-4-2-2-2-4 goals CONCEDED by Fiorentina recently suggests defensive weakness.
  • Only 3 wins for Pescara who won their last match at home v Palermo.
  • Pescara have lost all bar 1 away v top 15 teams. They conceded 3 goals at least in defeat away to 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 7th, 9th and 10th.

Conclusions

  • Skating on thin ice having faith in a dead rubber. On form, Pescara should concede 3 goals at least. Fiorentina have been conceding 2 goals for fun of late.
  • Last match of the season in front of home support. Is that enough for Fiorentina to produce the win?

19:45 - Inter v Udinese - 1.4 Inter Milan

  • Inter have won the last 4 head to heads.
  • This is 7th v 12th in Italian Seria A.
  • This is a dead rubber. Inter cannot get better than 7th place. Udinese could get a top 10 spot however much of a motivator that is.
  • Another match for in-play stats I am afraid.

19:45 - Torino v Sassuolo - 1.71 Torino

  • This is a dead rubber.

19:45 - Palermo v Empoli - 1.58 Empoli

  • 1-0 Empoli in the last head to head.
  • This is 19th v 17th in Italian Seria A.
  • Crotone are at home to Lazio and must draw or ideally win. Empoli must match Crotone's result in order to be guaranteed Seria A football next season.
  • Palermo are relegated but this is their last home match in Seria A.
  • Palermo are unbeaten in 3 at home without conceding. A draw and 2 wins.
  • Only 1 0-0 all season for Palermo.
  • Palermo are actually unbeaten at home v 15th and lower and kept 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
  • 9 of Palermo's 11 home goals came 1st half.
  • 3 defeats in 4 matches leave Empoli in this position. 1-2 win v Fiorentina, 1-2 win v AC Milan superb away form then they lost 3-2 v Cagliari away.
  • Empoli have conceded in their last 16 matches.

Conclusions

  • This is tough to evaluate. Empoli are the motivated side. Palermo though are unbeaten in 3 at home keeping 3 clean sheets and unbeaten v bottom 4 at home.
  • Empoli have conceded in their last 16 matches and lost 3 of their last 4. In beating Fiorentina and AC Milan, though away from home, Empoli have shown an ability to rise to the occasion.
  • Empoli need to match Crotone's result today to stay up. Do you have faith in them? I think they will score but then, in conceding in their last 16 away, Palermo may score too.
  • 1-2 is a possible trading angle today. Faith in the team needing a result? (Empoli?)