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See you for a live chat at 14:00 today to give the 13:30 matches a half hour. Usually quieter on a Sunday and usually more profitable on a Sunday.

11:00 - Sevilla v Sporting Gijon - 1.36 Sevilla

  • Gijon are actually competitive in home head to heads but less so away.
  • This is 4th v 18th in Spanish La Liga. Gijon are 6 points from safety.

Sevilla 100% stats

  • Go 3rd with a win.
  • Unbeaten v teams below them in the league at home.
  • Scored in all matches home and away v 8th and lower.
  • Not lost to nil at home.

Sevilla other stats

  • Failed to score only twice.
  • Second best form record at home this season in Spain.
  • Only a 1-1 home draw v strugglers Leganes of late. May be vulnerable to a defensive set up.
  • Only lost one match at halftime at home.

Sporting Gijon 100% stats

  • Lost all away matches so far v top 9.
  • Yet to beat a top 16 team away from home.
  • Conceded 2+ goals away v top 9.

Sporting Gijon other stats

  • Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 9 matches.
  • All defeats away bar 1 were by a single goal only.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • 5 away defeats were 2-1.

Conclusions

  • 2-1 seems to be the scoreline that turns up a lot with Sporting away.
  • They have lost away to top 9 but may score in defeat and again 2-1 fits the bill.
  • Sevilla have failed to score only twice so for them not to score today would be an anomoly.
  • For you halftime/fulltime market fans, Sporting Gijon have lost halftime and fulltime in 6/7 matches v top 6 away.

11:30 - Vitesse v NEC Nijmegen - 1.48 Vitesse

  • 2-1 NEC and 1-1 in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 7th v 14th in the Dutch Eredivisie.

Vitesse 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • Scored in all matches v 10th and lower.

Vitesse other stats

  • 4 losses in their last 6 matches.
  • Only 5 clean sheets and failed to score in only 5 matches - this usually suggests both teams to score.
  • Scored 2+ goals in 5 of 6 matches v 11th and lower at home.

NEC 100% stats

  • No 0-0 away.
  • Not beaten a top 5 side away.

NEC other stats

  • 7 losses in 8 matches.
  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • Only 2 away wins were 0-1.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in 8 of 10 matches v top 15 sides away.

Conclusions

  • Both sides are in losing form very recently.
  • On season-long form, Vitesse could score 2 goals and win today in a match in which both teams could score.
  • If we keep faith in the form (and acknowledge both sides' recent losing form), lay NEC if NEC score first.

11:30 - Torino v Udinese - 1.94 Torino

  • 1-5 Torino and 2-2 last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 10th v 12th in Italian Seria A.

Torino 100% stats

  • Unbeaten at home v 2nd and lower.
  • Scored in all home matches v top 16 teams.
  • Not lost to nil at home.

Torino other stats

  • Scored and conceded last 8 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches and only 5 clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded in 11 of their last 12 home matches.
  • 79% over 2.5 goals at home.
  • 14 of 19 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Udinese 100% stats

  • No over 4.5 goals away.

Udinese other stats

  • Scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • Only 6 clean sheets.
  • 3 of 4 away wins were 1-3.

Conclusions

  • 2 consecutive wins now for Udinese scoring 7 goals in those matches so they can suddenly come to life.
  • I would expect both teams to score today. 2-2 appeals as a trading position IF Torino continue to score and concede; IF Udinese keep scoring as they have done recently; IF the 79% over 2.5 goals stats for Torino suggests 3 goals at least.

12:30 - Hearts v Celtic - 1.44 Celtic

  • 4 consecutive Celtic wins in head to heads.
  • This is 5th v 1st in the Scottish Premier League.

Hearts 100% stats

  • Not beaten the top 2 this season.

Hearts other stats

  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • 80% over 1.5 goals at home.
  • 21 of 32 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Celtic 100% stats

  • Unbeaten.
  • Scored in every match.

Celtic other stats

  • Scored and conceded in wins away v 3rd to 6th.
  • Only 2 draws.
  • 11 consecutive away wins.

Conclusions

  • Both teams could score today and a hope that Hearts score first to give us that trading angle.
  • We should expect 2 goals in total at least.

13:30 - Ajax v Feyenoord - 1.97 Ajax

  • This is 2nd v 1st in the Dutch Eredivisie and as such, I will not research this match. These matches are tough to call and both teams can cancel each other out and the match unravel not as per the season-long form. A match for the in-play stats.
  • 1-1, 2-1, 1-1 the last 3 times these teams have met.

13:30 - Swansea v Middlesbrough - 2.02 Swansea

  • 3-0 Boro in the last head to head.
  • This is 17th v 19th in English premiership. I won't do full research as the form may be muddied by the 'relegation 6-pointer' element of this match.
  • Swansea have not had a draw in 17 matches.
  • 3 consecutive home wins now, 2-1, 2-0 and 3-2.
  • Only 4 clean sheets for Swansea.
  • At least one team has scored at least 2 goals in Swansea's last 17 matches.
  • Boro have not had a win in 11 matches and 13 away.
  • Boro failed to score in 6 of their last 7 away matches.
  • On form Swansea are in a groove, scoring 2 goals at least at home and winning. If the form continues, they can get 2 goals and Boro may have trouble even scoring.
  • I re-iterate that this could be a nervy affair. On form Swansea should not lose.

14:00 - Fiorentina v Bologna - 1.52 Fiorentina

  • 1-1 and 0-1 Fiorentina in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 8th v 13th in Italian Seria A.

Fiorentina 100% stats

  • Undefeated at home.
  • Scored in all home matches v teams below them in the league.

Fiorentina other stats

  • 3 consecutive clean sheets sees 2 consecutive 1-0 wins.
  • 7 consecutive home matches scoring 2/3 goals ended with a 1-0 last home match.
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • 11 of 13 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Bologna 100% stats

  • No away 0-0.
  • Not beaten a team above them in the league away.
  • Not beaten a top 8 side home or away.
  • Not scored 2 goals in an away match v top 19 sides.

Bologna other stats

  • 2 consecutive wins.
  • 10 goals conceded last 15 mins of away matches.

Conclusions

  • On form Bologna should not be winning. They cannot score that 2nd goal but fair enough they got a 0-1 win last away match. They have to keep Fiorentina from scoring, this is a Fiorentina who tend to score at home v teams below them in the league.
  • Best case score draw for Bologna today.
  • Note Fiorentina are likely to concede 2nd half IF they are to concede at all.
  • I am with the Viola today.

14:00 - Pescara v AC Milan - 1.59 AC Milan

  • 1-0 Milan the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 20th v 7th in Italian Seria A.

Pescara 100% stats

  • Not beaten any top 14 side.

Palermo other stats

  • 18 defeats in their last 21 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime in their last 17 matches.
  • Scored in their last 5 home matches.

AC Milan 100% stats

  • No draw v 11th and lower home or away.
  • 4 wins out of 4 v the bottom 4.

AC Milan other stats

  • 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Only Juventus beat them.
  • 1-1-1-1-1 scored in their last 5 away matches.
  • Failed to score in only 6 matches.

Conclusions

  • Pescara have scored 2 goals v the likes of Lazio and Napoli at home and still not won so I hope for some fun and games today and an early Pescara lead!
  • If that is the case Milan may have to up their scoring as they have only managed 1 max in recent aways.
  • Still they have a 100% record v bottom 4 and that is set to continueI think.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

14:00 - Chievo v Crotone - 1.89 Chievo

  • 2-0 Crotone in the last head to head.
  • This is 11th v 19th in Italian Seria A.

Chievo 100% stats

  • Unbeaten at home v teams below them in the league.

Chievo other stats

  • 2 consecutive home wins to nil.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home.

Crotone 100% stats

  • Conceded in all away matches.
  • No win away.
  • Not scored in both halves away.

Crotone other stats

  • 7 defeats and a 0-0 last 8 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • 18 of 27 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Chievo should not lose this on form today.
  • Expect Crotone to concede at some stage if this is 0-0 for a while.

14:00 - Rennes v Lyon - 1.87 Lyon

  • Lyon, Rennes, Draw, Lyon in the last 4 head to heads.
  • This is 8th v 4th in French Ligue 1 so both teams having a good season.

Rennes 100% stats

  • Not beaten a top 4 side yet.
  • No home 0-0.

Rennes other stats

  • 9 draws in their last 12 matches.
  • Scored 2 goals only once in 14 matches and still only drew.
  • Only 2 home losses v 2nd and 19th.
  • Scored 2 and 3 v 3rd and 5th at home.

Lyon 100% stats

  • No draw home or away v 7th and lower.

Lyon other stats

  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 away matches.
  • 6 of Lyon's last 7 defeats saw both teams score.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime.
  • Only 2 draws all season.
  • Only 1 0-0.
  • Not beaten 2nd to 10th away inclusive.

Conclusions

  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. Lyon have shown first half goals.
  • We have lots of draws v only 2 draws all season. Who will out? I would lay any late draw.
  • Rennes have scored 3 and 2 v 3rd and 5th at home so, with Lyon scoring and conceding in 5 of their last 6 away matches, 2-2 may have legs as a trading vehicle today. We need Rennes to score those 2 goals but they have only scored 2 goals once in 14 matches. I just hope they come alive v top 5.

14:00 - Genoa v Atalanta - 2.18 Atalanta

  • 1-2 and 3-0 Atalanta in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 16th v 6th in Italian Seria A.

Genoa other stats

  • Only 1 win in 13 matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet in 13 matches.
  • Did beat Juve at home, lost only 0-1 to Roma and 0-0 v Napoli so an obvious tactic here?
  • 10 of 14 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Atalanta 100% stats

  • All wins away v teams 15th and lower.

Atalanta other stats

  • Only 4 defeats since 26th September. Recent 7-1 away battering v Inter Milan was really out of the blue.
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • No draw home or away v 11th and lower sees 11 wins, and 3 defeats, scoring 2 or 3 goals on 9 occasions.
  • 16 of 23 away goals scored first half.

Conclusions

  • What we tend to see after an absolute spanking is a team lurching suddenly to an over-defensive set-up in order to compensate.
  • We may see that from Atalanta.
  • Lay any late draw today and hope Atalanta continue to avoid draws v bottom sides.
  • Genoa tend to try and defend, at least v top 3 and that could expand to top 6?
  • Atalanta have failed to score only 5 times so do expect a goal from them at some point.
  • No strong trading angles for me bar those above.

14:00 - Palermo v Cagliari - 2.42 Palermo

  • 2-1 Cagliari in the last head to head.
  • This is 18th v 14th in Italian Seria A. Because of the poor performance of the bottom 3, Cagliari are safe from relegation it seems. With Palermo on 15 points, and Empoli on 22 points (4th bottom) Palermo must start winning games and hope Empoli lose games.

Palermo 100% stats

  • No win at home v teams above them in the league.
  • Not managed to score 2 goals in a home match v those teams.
  • No 0-0.
  • Not scored in both halves at home.

Palermo other stats

  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Conceded 3 or 4 goals in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Have led at halftime on 3 occasions yet have only 1 win at home.
  • 6 of 7 goals scored at home came 1st half.

Cagliari 100% stats

  • Conceded in all away matches.
  • Both teams have scored in all matches v bottom 3 with 3 2-1 wins and a 1-1 draw.

Cagliari other stats

  • 1-1-2-1-1-1 conceded recently away.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.

Conclusions

  • Cagliari have shown that they can beat the bottom 3 and there is nothing in Palermo's form to desert me from that.
  • Palermo ave trouble scoring but Cagliari have trouble keeping clean sheets away and v the bottom 3.
  • I want Palermo to score first (and they may do so as they tend to score first half). They are layable if scoring first as 1-1 or 1-2 look obvious scorelines if Cagliari are to remain unbeaten v bottom 3.

14:30 - Ingolstadt v Mainz - 2.26 Ingolstadt

  • 2-0 Mainz in the most recent head to head.
  • This is 17th v 12th in the German Bundesliga.

Ingolstadt 100% stats

  • I fear Ingolstadt are relegated. Not mathematically though but it's an 8 point gap to 3rd bottom.
  • No 0-0.

Ingolstadt other stats

  • Only 2 wins last 10 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Conceded 2 goals in 4 of their last 5 home matches.
  • Only 1 home win v top 14 teams.
  • In 9 of those matches, they conceded at least 2 goals.

Mainz 100% stats

  • No away match with 5+ goals.

Mainz other stats

  • Only 3 wins in 14 matches.
  • Only 2 0-0s at halftime away.
  • Only 1 defeat in 8 matches home and away v 14th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • On form Mainz should not lose, despite being in poor form themselves of late. Ingolstadt usually concede 2 goals. Are Mainz capable of scoring 2+?

15:15 - Real Madrid v Alaves - 1.15 Real Madrid

  • Dare we blame the International Break for Man Utd and Chelsea faltering yesterday? Is this a recipe for Real and Barcelona to falter today?
  • 1-4 Real Madrid the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 1st v 10th in Spanish La Liga. Another season guaranteed for Alaves who might not be as enthused as they would be were this a relegation battle season for them.

Real Madrid 100% stats

  • Unbeaten at home.
  • Scored in every match.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals.

Real Madrid other stats

  • Both teams have scored in the last 6 matches.
  • Scored 2+ goals in their last 10 home matches.
  • 74% both teams to score all season - 3/4 matches.

Alaves 100% stats

  • Unbeaten away v top 3 lol! 1-2 win v Barcelona and 1-1 v Atl Madrid and this a post-International Break Real Madrid. Fun and games today?
  • Scored and conceded in all 3 matches away v top 4.

Alaves other stats

  • 50% 0-0's at halftime away.
  • 12 of 15 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • I smell an upset? Surely not. Value is in laying Real Madrid against an Alaves with a draw and a win away v top 3.
  • We know how Real Madrid love to concede. I would lay Real Madrid if Real Madrid scored first today just for a bit of value.
  • In a sane world, Real Madrid score 3/4 goals and win easily. But this is a post-International Break world with an opponent proven away v the top 3!!
  • Note Alaves very strong concession rate away so if it happens to be 0-0 or 0-1 at halftime, take note that Alaves are more vulnerable after halftime.

15:45 - Twente v Go Ahead Eagles - 1.52 Twente

  • 1-3 and 0-2 Twente in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 6th v 18th in the Dutch Eredivisie.
  • Go Ahead can still save their season but need wins and the bottom 4 to under-perform.

Twente 100% stats

  • Unbeaten home and away v the bottom 3.

Twente other stats

  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • 3 wins in their last 4 home matches, were 1-0, 1-0 and 2-1.
  • Only 1 defeat at home v teams below them in the league.
  • 10 of 13 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Go Ahead 100% stats

  • Conceded in all away matches.
  • Not beaten any top 13 side away.
  • No 0-0.

Go Ahead other stats

  • 3-2-3-3 goals conceded in their last 4 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 15 and last 13 away.
  • 17 of 23 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • We could see Go Ahead tough to beat initially but they tend to fall apart 2nd half so I'd look out for that.
  • Twente should score so note that if 0-0.
  • GO ahead could conceded 2 or 3 goals at their worst.

16:00 - Arsenal v Man City - 2.36 Man City

  • Both teams have scored in the last 4 head to heads, with one team at least scoring 2+ goals.
  • This is 6th v 3rd in the English Premiership. WOT NO 4th spot for the Arse?

Arsenal 100% stats

  • Scored in all home matches v 18th and higher.
  • Not lost to nil.

Arsenal other stats

  • 3 3-1 defeats in their last 4 matches came away from home.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • 13 of last 15 matches saw at least a goal before halftime.
  • Scored in their last 18 matches.
  • Only 1 win v top 7 teams.

Man City 100% stats

  • No away draw.

Man City other stats

  • 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Not beaten a top 4 team but 2-1 wins v 5th and 6th.

Conclusions

  • Arsenal are conceding 3 goals regularly v the big teams so I would have to lay Arsenal were they to score first today.
  • 1-2/2-1 correct score appeals to me from a trading perspective, as long as this big clash does not end with both teams cancelling each other out.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

16:00 - Nantes v Angers - 2.1 Nantes

  • Nantes have tended to win 2016 head to heads.
  • This is 11th v 9th in French Ligue 1.

Nantes other stats

  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 10 matches.
  • Only 1 win at home v teams in the top 14 was a 3-2.

Angers 100% stats

  • No draw away v teams below them in the league.
  • No away 0-0.

Angers other stats

  • 5 wins and a loss last 6 matches scoring 3 goals in each of their last 3 wins.
  • Conceded in their last 12 away matches.
  • Only 1 away draw.
  • Only 1 win away v top 13 sides.

Conclusions

  • I can make an argument for either side NOT winning today!
  • Were I to make a call, I would account for Angers excellent recent form but the problem is they have only 1 win v top 12 sides away.
  • This I suppose is why I tend to avoid the French Ligue 1, bar Nice, Monaco, PSG.

16:30 - Leverkusen v Wolfsburg - 1.83 Leverkusen

  • 3-0 and 1-2 Leverkusen in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 11th v 15th in the German Bundesliga.

Leverkusen 100% stats

  • No 1-0 or 0-1 at home.

Leverkusen other stats

  • 3 defeats and a draw last 4 matches.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 0-0.
  • Bitty pattern-less home form but beat 16th and 18th at home.

Conclusions

  • I stop my research early here. Both teams' form is unreadable and anything could happen here. I could make an argument for a home or away win.
  • I will only look at this match via in-play stats.

17:30 - Valencia v Deportivo - 1.9 Valencia

  • 3 consecutive 1-1 draws in head to heads. A sequence which will end the longer it continues (if you know what I mean?).
  • This is 14th v 15th in Spanish La Liga.

Valencia 100% stats

  • All home draws come v teams below them in the league.
  • Unbeaten home and away v teams below them in the league.
  • No home 0-0.

Valencia other stats

  • Only 1 win in their last 5 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Scored and conceded in 7/8 matches home and away v teams below them in the league.

Deportivo 100% stats

  • Not beaten any top 17 team away.

Deportivo other stats

  • Recently beat Barca at home and drew at home v Atl Madrid but cannot translate that form away.
  • 1-1-1-1-0-1 scored in recent away matches.
  • Only 5 clean sheets.

Conclusions

  • I would lay Depor if Depor score first given they have not scored that 2nd in recent away matches and given the strong both teams to score stat for Valencia v teams below them in the league.
  • I want to oppose any late 1-1 draw but it would not surprise me to see this scoreline again!

19:45 - Napoli v Juventus - 2.7 Napoli

  • Is there an angle into this clash of 2 of the big 3 in Italy?
  • Juventus have won the last 3 head to heads but Napoli did win the last home head to head.
  • This is 3rd v 1st in Italian Seria A.

Napoli 100% stats

  • Not beaten the top 4 at home.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals at home.

Napoli other stats

  • 12 wins in 15 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • 12 of 16 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Juventus 100% stats

  • No 0-0.

Juventus other stats

  • 9 wins and a draw last 10 matches.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • Scored last 20 matches.
  • 5 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches away.
  • Have lost to 5th, 7th and 8th away so are vulnerable.
  • 16 of 21 away goals scored 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Juventus should score again at some stage. They are strong 2nd half goalscorers so note that.
  • Juventus have 3 away defeats v top 8 so are vulnerable.
  • It is tough to call given both sides are in such good winning form. I would look definitely for that Juventus goal and if 0-0 halftime, would look for 2nd half goals.

19:45 - Granada v Barcelona - 1.22 Barcelona

  • 3 consecutive wins to nil in head to heads, the last a laboured 1-0.
  • This is 19th v 2nd in Spanish La Liga. Granada are 8 points from safety. Barcelona must win as real Madrid are at home and have a game in hand and 2 points.

Granada 100% stats

  • Lost to all top 3 so far.

Granada other stats

  • No draw in 10 matches.
  • 3 consecutive defeats.
  • Only lost 0-1 to Atl Madrid recently at home.
  • 3 consecutive home wins prior to that so making a go of it albeit it seems too late.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • 11 of 14 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Barcelona 100% stats

  • Scored in all aways.
  • All wins home and away v bottom 4.
  • 13 goals in 3 away v bottom 4.

Barcelona other stats

  • Failed to score only once.
  • Lost their last away match.
  • Scored in their last 16 matches overall.
  • 27 of 38 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • There may be trouble ahead.....
  • Or maybe not. Post International break Barca have a number of South American players who may be impacted by the matches and the travel. Normally though Barca would put Granada to the sword, scoring 3+ goals.
  • This is a Granada who beat Sevilla at home and only lost to an 83rd minute Atl Madrid goal lately.
  • I would cautiously back 0-0 pre-match and hope the International break is compounded by a Granadian defensive display like the one v Madrid.
  • Strong 2nd half biases for both sides so no surprise if 0-0 at halftime but big surprise if 0-0 fulltime.

20:00 - Nice v Bordeaux - 2.28 Nice

  • 2 consecutive 0-0's in league head to heads.
  • This is 3rd v 6th in French Ligue 1.

Nice 100% stats

  • Unbeaten at home.
  • All home wins v top 12 teams.

Nice other stats

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.

Bordeaux 100% stats

  • Not beaten the top 3 yet home or away.
  • No 1-0 or 0-1 away.

Bordeaux other stats

  • Only 1 0-0 away.
  • Only 1 win v top 12 away.

Conclusions

  • 0-0 is in-play given the head to heads but I will lay any late 0-0 today. These sequences tend to end.
  • Lay Bordeaux if Bordeaux score first. Nice have failed to score in only 4 matches.