Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

A break from the tennis today in preparation for an all-out assault tomorrow on Wimbledon's early rounds. I will research as many matches as possible and begin that research today. Football-wise, my focus is on HJK Helsinki, Molde and Brann's matches as being the most readable.

13:00 - Portugal v Mexico - 2.32 Portugal

  • This is a 3rd placed play off in the Confederations Cup and not a match I will be trading at all given the questionable attitude of these teams to this also-ran affair.

14:00 - Jonkopings Sodra v IFK Goteborg - 2.38 IFK

  • 1-1 the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 12th v 11th in Swedish Allsvenskan.

Sodra

  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • No home 0-0.
  • Only home loss v 1st.
  • Scored and conceded in all bar 1 at home.
  • No home 0-0.

IFK

  • Only 3 wins.
  • Unbeaten v 14th and under.
  • No 0-0.

Conclusions

  • Sodra look competitive at home but could score and concede. I would be keener to lay IFK if IFK scored first today.
  • Lay any late 0-0. We should see a goal at least.

16:30 - FC Inter v HJK Helsinki - 1.94 HJK

  • 1-1 in the last head to head.
  • This is 7th v 1st in the Finnish Veikkausliiga.

FC Inter

  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • No win in 5 away at home.
  • Not beaten top 4 this season.
  • Not scored more than 1 goal v top 8 at home.

HJK

  • Only 1 loss.
  • 8 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • 5 consecutive wins.
  • Only loss this season was away v 2nd.

Conclusions

  • HJK really should not be losing and that is a simple angle today.
  • FC Inter do not tend to score that 2nd goal so lay FC Inter if they score first.

16:30 - VPS v IFK Mariehamn - 2.46 VPS

  • No research here I'm afraid. 2.46 favourite in the Finnish Veikkausliiga. I'll take the hint and leave alone.

17:00 - Molde v Viking - 1.57 Molde

  • 1-0 Viking in the last head to head.
  • This is 5th v 16th in the Norwegian Eliteserien.

Molde

  • Only 1 loss in 5.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • No draw in 6 at home.
  • Only 1 loss home and away v 6th and lower.
  • No draw at home.
  • 3 goals scored v 12th and 15th at home.

Viking

  • Only 2 wins came at home.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.

Conclusions

  • Molde are highly likely to score and could even score 3 goals so Viking must be opposed if scoring. When Viking scored 2 goals away they still lost.
  • Lay any late draw.

17:00 - Haugesund v Tromso - 1.94 Haugesund

  • 2-2 and 2-1 Haugesund in the last head to head.
  • This is 9th v 15th in the Norwegian Eliteserien.

Haugesund

  • 0-1-1-1 scored last 4 matches without losing.
  • 3 clean sheets last 4 matches.
  • 5 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches at home.
  • Not played 11th and lower at home.

Tromso

  • Only 3 wins.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Failed to score only 3 times.
  • Conceded in their last 11 matches.
  • Lost to 4th, 5th, 7th, 8th away and play 9th today. Does not augur well.
  • No 0-0.
  • 11 of 14 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Bring back the Bundesliga, Premiership et al. All is forgiven. These leagues can be tough to read.
  • Here we have a Haugesund yet to beat teams 11th and lower at home so we do not know how they fare against strugglers. We may get a hint from Tromso's dire losing form v 4th-8th inclusive and with this evidence I would look to lay Tromso should Tromso score first.
  • Haugesund tend towards under 2.5 goals which suggests we might get some change from backing 0-0 pre match and laying off at halftime if the goal drought continues. Note too Tromso tend to concede heavily away 2nd half so if 0-0 halftime I would hope for a 2nd half goal.

18:00 - Sligo Rovers v Shamrock Rovers - 2.08 Shamrock

  • 1-0 Shamrock in the last head to head.
  • This is 10th v 4th in the Irish Premier Division.

Sligo Rovers

  • 3 wins all came at home.
  • 2 losses at home came v top 2.
  • Only 1 win in 11 matches.

Shamrock Rovers

  • Only 2 defeats in 10 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 1 match.
  • Scored in their last 17 matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • No away draw.
  • In all 6 away defeats, both teams scored. Lost away to 9th and 11th.

Conclusions

  • Unflattering away form from Shamrock Rovers.
  • Lay any late 0-0. We do expect Shamrock Rovers to score today but equally both teams could score.
  • This is a match where I could take an equal position in opposing both sides.
  • I would look to back 2-1/1-2 as a trading angle and trade out hopefully if the match gets to 1-1. Lots of draws Sligo and lots of both teams scoring away for Shamrock.

19:00 - Chile v Germany - 2.52 Germany

  • For a team with Sanchez up front, Chile has scored 2-1-1-0 goals in this Confederations Cup.
  • They remain unbeaten and have 2 1-1 draws v Germany and Australia.
  • 3-1-3-4 goals scored by Germany this tournament. Yes, they only scored a single goal v Chile.
  • Given what Germany U21 achieved in their final, I do feel this Germany side will play differing tactics and not lose this match in 90 minutes.
  • As ever with Finals it is so tough to actually call this match. I will enter it favouring the Germans as the Chilean side rarely score that 2nd goal so if scoring first should be layed.

19:00 - Brann v Valerenga - 1.72 Brann

  • 4-7-5-6-5-5 goals in total in recent head to heads.
  • At least one team scored 3 or 4 goals in those matches.
  • This is 2nd v 6th in the Norwegian Eliteserien.

Brann

  • Only 2 defeats came away from home.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • 4-5-1-5 goals scored at home recently.
  • Undefeated at home. not conceded more than 1 goal in a home match.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals at home.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Scored first all home matches.
  • Led at halftime in 6/7 at home.

Valerenga

  • Both teams have scored last 4 matches.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • No draw away.
  • No draw at halftime away.
  • Poor away record v top 9, losing 4 and winning one 0-1.
  • No 0-0.

Conclusions

  • Prepare for lift off! We may see Brann equal the 4/5 goals they have been scoring at home of late, particularly given Valerenga's dire form away v top 9.
  • Brann usually lead at halftime so note that and lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market, particularly if we see no goal after 20 mins or so.
  • If 0-0 for a while I would back over 4.5 goals and hope that a) the head to head trend for huge goals continues and b) Brann continue their goal frenzy of late.