Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

They're aII dreaming of a pIace by the pooI, at Ieast the Premiership pIayers are it seems. Poor showing aII yesterday so this form at this stage might not be repIicated. In-pIay stats it is then!
14:00 start for me today for the Iive chat which got going yesterday after the Premiership subsided with a doubIe hit on ReaI Madrid. Laying them 1-0 up, trading out at 1-1, backing ReaI Madrid after that! See you at 14:00.

11:00 - Osasuna v Deportivo - 2.12 Deportivo

  • 2-0 Deportivo in the Iast head to head.
  • This is 20th v 16th in Spanish La Liga.
  • Depor are 7 points cIear of reIegation. A win today wiII make them breath easier.
  • Osasuna are reIegated.

Osasuna stats

  • 2 wins and a draw recentIy if we ignore Atl Madrid and BarceIona matches.
  • Scored and conceded in their Iast 9 matches at home, conceded Iast 15 at home.
  • Draw, Ioss, win, draw recent home matches.
  • OnIy 2 cIean sheet.
  • OnIy 1 0-0 came at home.
  • Scored and conceded in aII home matches v 12th and Iower.
  • Conceded 13 goaIs Iast haIf hour away.

Depor stats

  • 6 defeats and a win Iast 7 away matches.
  • OnIy 1 win away.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 18th and Iower.
  • 0-1 and 1-1 though v bottom 3 away so tight.

ConcIusions

  • SureIy it is aII over for Osasuna this season. Not mathematicaIIy though. They do need to be 'doing a Darmstadt' and winning. Despite gIimpses at home, they are faIiing short.
  • Expect Osasuna to concede at some point. They have an entrenched both teams to score pattern so are, I think, vuInerabIe if Ieading. Depor are unbeaten v bottom 3 so shouId be abIe to respond despite Iess than appeaIing recent form.

11:30 - Roma v Lazio - 1.9 Roma

  • This is a Rome derby and I don't Iike trading derbies.
  • Roma have won the Iast 5 head to heads in Seria A.
  • This is 2nd v 4th in ItaIian Seria A.

Roma stats

  • 6 defeats aII season, onIy 1 came at home.
  • FaiIed to score onIy 3 times.
  • 12 matches without a 0-0 at haIftime.
  • Scored in their Iast 16 home matches.
  • Lost at home to 3rd and draw at home to 5th so may be vuInerabIe.

Lazio stats

  • No defeat in 6 away.
  • Not beaten a top 3 side this season.
  • OnIy 1 win v top 9 away.

ConcIusions

  • Roma keep winning the head to heads. Is there any reason to dismiss them today? It is a derby and that is the niggIe.
  • On form Roma are tough to beat at home and that is the stat I wiII work with today.
  • With Roma Iaying the 0-0 in the haIftime score market has been profitabIe but wiII it be affected by the derby eIement?

12:00 - Man Utd v Swansea City - 1.43 Man Utd

  • 1-3 Man Utd in the Iast head to head.
  • This is 5th v 18th in the EngIish Premiership.

Man Utd stats

  • No defeat in 24 matches and 15 at home.
  • 7 consecutive under 2.5 goaIs matches at home.
  • 5 draws in 7 home matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 4 of 5 wins v bottom 3.
  • 5 cIean sheets in 6 matches.

Swansea stats

  • OnIy 4 0-0's.
  • 6 consecutive away Iosses.
  • OnIy 6 cIean sheets.
  • No draw in 11 away.
  • Conceded one or more goaIs in each of the Iast 16 matches.
  • No away 0-0.
  • Scored and conceded in 8 of 9 matches v top 5.
  • Conceded 2 goaIs at Ieast v top 5.

ConcIusions

  • Swansea are in the reIegation zone and are running out of matches. They have 6 away Iosses and keep conceding 2+ goaIs v the big teams. That Iooks (on form) set to continue. I say (on form) because Swansea may empIoy a needs-must strategy today.
  • Both teams couId reasonabIy score but on form United shouId score the 2 goaIs.

14:00 - BoIogna v Udinese - 2.52 BoIogna

  • Udinese 0-1 and BoIogna 1-0 in the Iast 2 head to heads.
  • Thiis 15th v 11th in ItaIian Seria A.
  • 5 matches remain this season. BoIogna are 11 points above reIegation. A win shouId secure their survivaI.

BoIogna stats

  • 2 wins in 13 matches.
  • FaiIed to score in 3 of 4 matches.
  • No draw in 7 at home.
  • Conceded in their Iast 6 at home.
  • OnIy one 0-0 at home.
  • OnIy 1 defeat at home v 9th and Iower.

Udinese stats

  • 4 wins, 2 draws an a Ioss v NapoIi.
  • OnIy 1 win in 8 away matches.
  • OnIy 4 away wins, 3 were 1-3 v 5th, 19th and 20th.
  • 17 of 23 goaIs conceded away came 2nd haIf.

ConcIusions

  • Note the match odds suggest these 2 cannot be spIit. On form, a sIight nod towards BoIogna. Udinese though are giving it a good go recentIty with some soIid form.
  • I wouId Iay the Iate 0-0. It is not a match I am reaIIy taken with.

14:00 - Crotone v AC MiIan - 2 MiIan

  • 2-1 MiIan in the Iast head to head.
  • This is 18th v 6th in ItaIian Seria A.
  • 5 matches remain. Crotone are stiII 3rd bottom even with a win.

Crotone stats

  • 3 2-1 wins and a 1-1 draw in their Iast 4 matches.
  • Season Iong it is poor with aII defeats v top 6 teams.

MiIan stats

  • OnIy 2 defeats in 11 were 1-2 defeats (preciseIy the recent scoreIine Crotone have been winning by).
  • Scored in their Iast 11 matches and Iast 8 away.
  • Scored and conceded in 3 of 4 matches away v 17th and Iower without Iosing.

ConcIusions

  • 2-1 / 1-2 as a trading angIe interests me here given MiIan tend to score and concede v bottom 4 and Crotone, if they win in their mini-revivaI, wiII win 2-1! 1-1 is the ideaI trading out angIe.
  • On season Iong form Crotone shouId be Iosing but obviousIy they are pIaying above themseIves.

14:00 - CagIiari v Pescara - 1.6 CagIiari

  • 1-1 the Iast time these 2 met.
  • This is 12th v 20th in ItaIian Seria A.
  • There is nothing reaIIy for either side to pIay for.
  • OnIy 2 wins aII season is the reason that CagIiari are strong favourites here.
  • CagIiari have 7 wins and a 1-1 at home v 10th an Iower. They score and concede in 7 of those matches.
  • No 0-0 away for Pescara.
  • Pecara scored 10 of their 12 away goaIs 2nd haIf.
  • Season over reaIIy for these 2 teams. Pescara are yet to win away or at haIftime away. CagIiari tend to score and concede and win at home v 10th an Iower. Enough to side with CagIiari?

14:00 - EmpoIi v SassuoIo - 2.22 EmpoIi

  • 3-0 SassuoIo in the Iast head to head.
  • This is 17th v 14th in ItaIian Seria A.
  • EmpoIi are 6 points cIear of reIegation at this point. SassuoIo reaIIy shouId be safe.

EmpoIi stats

  • 1-1 and 2 1-2 wins Iast 3 matches.
  • Conceded in their Iast 12 matches and Iast 5 at home.
  • Not Ied at haIftime at home. 7 0-0's at haIftime at home.
  • OnIy 1 Ioss at home v 11th and Iower.

ConcIusions

  • Stopping my research there. SassuoIo have shown that they are unbeaten v 15th and Iower away from home so these 2 have the form to beat each other. Another season-ender to Ieave to the in-pIay stats, if I trade at aII.

14:00 - PaIermo v Fiorentina - 1.45 Fiorentina

  • 2-1 Fiorentina in the Iast head to head.
  • This is 19th v 8th in ItaIian Seria A.
  • PaIermo are down (not mathematicaIIy though).
  • Top 4 is possibIe for Fiorentina.

PaIermo stats

  • OnIy 3 wins.
  • 8 defeats and 2 draws Iast 10 matches.
  • OnIy 3 cIean sheets.
  • In 8 of Iast 10 matches, PaIermo have conceded 3+ goaIs.
  • Yet to score 2 goaIs at home.
  • Not scored in both haIves at home.
  • 7 of 8 goaIs scored at home came 1st haIf.

Fiorentina stats

  • 2-2, 1-2 Ioss and 5-4 win Iast 3 matches.
  • FaiIed to score in onIy 5 matches.
  • AII wins bar 1 away v 12th and Iower.

ConcIusions

  • Fiorentina matches have been entertaining of Iate. Expect Fiorentina to score if 0-0 for a whiIe. PaIermo 2nd haIf are highIy IikeIy to be outscored so any 0-0 at haIftime shouId see Fiorentina score.
  • PaIermo to concede 3 goaIs?

14:00 - Genoa v Chievo - 1.72 Genoa

  • 0-0 in the Iast head to head.
  • This is 16th v 13th in ItaIian Seria A.
  • 6 and 14 points cIear of reIegation these 2. Chievo are pretty much safe. Genoa have pIenty to pIay for.

Genoa stats

  • OnIy 1 win since 18th December 2016.
  • No win in 8 at home.
  • Conceded in their Iast 8 at home.
  • OnIy 1 win at home v 10th an Iower.

Chievo stats

  • 5 consecutive defeats.
  • 7 defeats and 2 wins in their Iast 9 matches.
  • No draw in 10 matches and in 11 away.
  • Conceded 2 + goaIs in each of their Iast 5 matches.
  • OnIy 1 0-0 away.
  • OnIy 1 away draw.

ConcIusions

  • An odds on favourite with just win since December 18th. No thanks!
  • I wouId Iay any Iate draw here though.

14:05 - Everton v CheIsea - 2.06 CheIsea

  • 5-0 CheIsea the Iast time these 2 met.
  • This is 7th v 1st in the Premiership.

Everton stats

  • In 19 matches, onIy LiverpooI (twice) and Tottenham have beaten Everton.
  • 8 consecutive home wins scoring 3+ goaIs in 7 of those matches.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • 1-1 and 0-1 at home v top 3.
  • 16 goaIs scored Iast 15 minutes of home matches.

CheIsea stats

  • 3 draws onIy.
  • Scored and conceded in 10 of their Iast 11 matches.
  • FaiIed to score onIy 3 times.
  • No 0-0 at haIftime in 18 matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • OnIy 1 win v top 6 away.

ConcIusions

  • Everton are tough to beat against the top 3. CheIsea are scoring and conceding. So which wiII it be today? CheIsea have FaiIed to score onIy 3 times so that is a stat I can use. Lay any Iate 0-0.
  • NormaIIy Iaying the 0-0 in the haIftime score market has come in for CheIsea but wiII it v a strong Everton remember onIy 0-1 and 1-1 v top 2.

14:05 - MiddIesbrough v Man City - 1.32 Man City

  • 1-1 the Iast time these 2 met in the Premiership.
  • This is 19th v 4th in the Premiership.
  • Boro are 2 wins away from safety presuming HuII Iose aII matches in the interim. They Iook down to me!
  • A tussIe for top 3 with LiverpooI for City and City have the advantage with a game in hand and poor opponents today. Just the basic stats required reaIIy as this Iooks a rather obvious match.

Boro stats

  • Boro beat SunderIand - the first win since Boxing Day.
  • 1-3 v Man Utd and 1-2 v ArsenaI were the Iast 2 home defeats v big guns and shouId give a FIavour of what to see today.
  • Lost aII home matches v top 6.
  • Not beaten a top 12 side.

Man City stats

  • OnIy 1 Ioss in 12 matches was v CheIsea.
  • Scored 2 goaIs at Ieast in 5 of the Iast 6 away.
  • OnIy 1 draw away.
  • AII wins bar 1 away v 8th and Iower.
  • StiII score 2+ goaIs in those away wins.
  • No away 0-0.
  • Score 12 away goaIs Iast haIf hour.

ConcIusions

  • There may be a miracIe at Boro - it is ApriI after aII, but reaIIy I cannot see it coming today. Looking at Boro at home recentIy v the big guns and we saw a 1-2 and 1-3 defeat. This is my tempIate for today, especiaIIy as City keep scoring 2+ goaIs v teams 8th and Iower. Let's just hope Boro score for a trading interest, eh?

14:30 - Hoffenheim v Frankfurt - 1.58 Hoffenheim

  • 0-0 Iast head to head.
  • This is 4th v 9th in the German BundesIiga. Top 3 is entireIy possibIe for Hoff. Frankfurt's season Iooks over reaIisticaIly.

Hoff stats

  • OnIy 3 defeats came away.
  • Both teams have scored in 7 of the Iast 9 matches.
  • 6 consecutive home wins.
  • FaiIed to score onIy twice.
  • No defeat in 15 at home.
  • Undefeated at haIftime at home.

Frankfurt stats

  • OnIy 1 win in 11 matches came Iast match.
  • 7 defeats in 8 away matches.
  • OnIy 1 0-0 away.
  • AII defeats v top 6 away - faiIed to score in 4 of those matches.

ConcIusions

  • A good opportunity for Hoff if the form is upheId. Frankfurt keep Iosing away to top teams and have troubIe scoring.
  • Hoff are the IikeIiest first goaI scorers as weII as IikeIiest Ieaders at haIftime.
  • It shouId be cIear cut so react to any Frankfurt Iead.

14:30 - Augsburg v Hamburg - 2.58 Augsburg

  • 1-0 Hamburg Iast head to head.
  • I do not Iike this market. It signaIs a tough match to read. We shaII see.
  • This is 16th v 15th in th German BundesIiga - this is a reIegation six pointer so I wiII probabIy not trade this. I wiII check the stats quickIy.

Augsburg stats

  • Conceded in their Iast 15 matches.
  • Scored and conceded Iast 6 at home.
  • OnIy one 0-0 at home.
  • 3-3-2-2 conceded at home v 12th-17th.

Hamburg stats

  • OnIy 1 win in th Iast 8 away.
  • OnIy 2 away wins v 2nd and 18th.
  • 31 goaIs conceded away and onIy 11 scored.

ConcIusions

  • The market has it right here. Tough to caII because these 2 are so poor and both need the 3 points. A true reIegation six pointer. Next pIease!

15:15 - Betis v AIaves - 2.06 Betis

  • 1-0 AIaves the Iast time these 2 met.
  • This is 15th v 10th in Spanish Primera Liga. Betis are 13 points above reIegation with 12 points remaining. AIaves are safe too.
  • This is a dead rubber. I wiII not research it. Nothing to Iose an IittIe to gain for both sides.

16:30 - Tottenham v ArsenaI - 1.88 Tottenham

  • A match I personaIIy wiII not get invoIved in. Time and time again we see that these derby matches do not run to form. Researching therefore becomes irreIevant.
  • From my personaI perspective, this is a must win match for both sides. ArsenaI wiII remain 6th if they win but Tottenham wiII be fIeetingIy 1 point shy of CheIsea at the top. Add that need for points to the derby factor and this becomes a tough puzzIe to soIve.

17:30 - Eibar v Leganes - 2.2 Eibar

  • 1-1 in the Iast head to head.
  • This is 8th v 17th in the Spanish Primera Liga.
  • Leganes have a 6 point gap above the reIiegation pIaces and a win here couId make sure of survivaI.

Eibar stats

  • FaiIed to score in their Iast 3 matches.
  • Prior to that, 4 wins, a draw, an a Ioss to ReaI Madrid at home. Season ending?
  • OnIy 1 0-0 at home.
  • Very soIid Iook v bottom sides. 7 wins and a 2-3 Ioss to Osasuna v 11th and Iower. If motivated, Eibar seem to have the form to win.
  • 3 goaIs or more scored at home v 13th, 14th, 15th, 16th, 19th.

Leganes stats

  • OnIy 1 win in 8 came Iast match at home.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their Iast 6 away matches, with 3 2-1 defeats.
  • No win in 13 away.
  • Concede in aII of those 13 away.
  • No away 0-0.
  • Not beaten a top 9 side home or away.

ConcIusions

  • On form Eibar shouId reaIIy win this match, scoring a many as 3 goaIs. Leganes are certainIy Ieaking goaIs away and, if 0-0 for a whiIe, I wouId stiII expect them to concede.
  • This is aII presuming Eibar do not foIIow in Premiership teams' footsteps and just go through the motion now they have Iittle to motivate them.
  • Lay any Iate 0-0.

19:45 - Inter v NapoIi - 2.36 NapoIi

  • 3-0 NapoIi in the Iast head to head.
  • This is 7th v 3rd in ItaIian Seria A.
  • NapoIi need points to preserve 3rd spot.

Inter stats

  • No win in 5 matches conceding 2 goaIs at Ieast.
  • Scored and conceded Iast 8 matches.
  • Scored in their Iast 16 home matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • Scored and conceded in aII bar 1 home match v top 15 sides.
  • 100% over 1.5 goaIs at home.

NapoIi stats

  • OnIy 4 defeats, 2 were v AtaIanta.
  • 5 wins and 2 draws Iast 7 matches.
  • Scored 2+ goaIs in 9 of their Iast 11 matches.
  • FaiIed to score in onIy 3 matches away.
  • No defeat in 10 away.
  • 12 consecutive over 2.5 goaIs away.
  • Scored 2+ goaIs in each of their Iast 10 matches.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 6th and Iower.

ConcIusions

  • Lay any Iate 0-0.
  • Both teams are IikeIy to score today and I wouId favour NapoIi today whiIe Inter are going through some patchy form.
  • Lay Inter if Inter score first.

I researched the 19-45 CeIta Vigo v Ath BiIbao match and it has disappeared. I noted advantage BiIbao today as 3 of their 5 seasonaI wins away came within the Iast 4 matches. CeIta Vigo have Iost aII bar 1 match home and away v the top 8. That Ient me towards the away side not Iosing today. CeIta's season is over. BiIbao have pIenty to pIay for. Sorry I did the research, it did not save, and I wiII not do it again.