Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

Where I mention BANKER below, this signifies those matches where I think the favourites should win. These matches I would personally prioritise as regards DRT.

Remember the strategies:

Lay the 0-0 halftime score in certain signalled matches

Lay the 0-0 2nd half in matches where goals were expected but have not yet materialised

Lay the 2-2 scoreline, especially early on in matches. 2-2 shows us that teams are scoring and conceding.

Lay the away team leading 0-2 before halftime, especially if they are favourites. The home team is usually galvanised by the halftime team talk.

Lay the underdog if they score first in certain matches (especially BANKER matches where I would back the BANKERS if they conceded first at enhanced odds)

Lay the underdog scoring early in the first half, in the HALF TIME market, especially in BANKER matches.

Some good calls yesterday. Did you lay Liverpool 1-0 up as advised? QPR scored next and despite losing the match, we still profited in-play. Barcelona scored before halftime and anyone delaying would have profited handsomely. A 42nd minute goal ensured layers of the 0-0 halftime score at short odds ( for a Barca match) would be delighted. Did you lay the 0-0 halftime score in the Hoffenheim match? The 1st goal came 33rd minute.  The Fenerbahce match was a cracker. Balikesirspor led 1-2 and Fener were very backable in an exciting match. There was a Desmond 2-2 too, the final score being 4-3.

11am - Espanyol v Rayo Vallecano  - 1.83 home

Standout Stats

  • 1-4 espanyol, 2-2, 1-3 Espanyol in the last 3 head to heads.
  • This is 10th v 12th in La Liga. I'm not sure what these teams still have to play for. Espanyol could go 7th with a win.

Espanyol

  • No draw in 2 at home
  • Only 1 loss in 8 matches was against Barcelona
  • That was the only loss in 5 at home
  • Only 1 loss at home v 6th and lower.

Rayo Vallecano

  • No draw in 16 away
  • Conceded in their last 7 away
  • Only 1 draw since 14th September came in their last match.
  • 6 defeats in their last 7 away matches.
  • Have lost all away matches v the top 10 conceding 3+ in all bar 1 match.
  • 22 of 40 goals conceded came in the first half away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • With Rayo's dire away form v the top 10, they must be logically opposed today.
  • Lay any late draw too. Rayo tend to avoid draws and did draw their last match.
  • Lay Rayo if they lead at any stage.
  • Lay any late 0-0
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11:30am- Roma v Genoa  - 1.61 home

Standout Stats

  • Roma, Genoa, Roma in the last 3 head to heads.
  • Roma are looking at 2nd. Genoa are eyeing 5th.
  • 5 matches (15 points possibly) remain this season. If Roma win their remaining 5 matches, and Juventus lose their remaining 5 matches ( they are leading v Sampdoria as I write), then Roma could win the title. It ain'tgonna happen. 2nd place it is therefore for these draw specialists.
  • Genoa if positive could eye a top 4 spot but will need Napoli to falter.

Roma

  • Only 4 defeats all season.
  • Only 1 win in 9 home matches is alarming - the reason? DRAW-ITIS.
  • A shocking scoring run of scoring 0-1-1-0-0-1-1-1-1-1 ended with 3 scored last match v Sassuolo
  • Only 1 home loss v 5th
  • 12 first half and 14 second half goals scored at home

Genoa

  • Have conceded in their last 5 away matches.
  • 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
  • Only 2 wins in 9 away matches. 1-3 win v AC Milan last away match is eyecatching
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • Did beat Lazio 0--1 away.Lost only 1-0 away to Juventus.
  • Top teams need to work hard to beat Genoa away.
  • Both teams have scored in 75% of away matches

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Roma are likely to struggle to impress today with their season fizzling out.  They are the Liverpool of Italy- a team lacking reliable at odds on at home. They have, remember, only 1 win in 9 home matches and play a Genoa who are tough to beat when playing the top sides. If they lose it is one goal in it.
  • Value? Lay Roma if they score first. Why? Well 75% both teams to score in Genoa away matches. And Look at Roma's shocking run of only scoring a single goal max in recent matches.
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12:15pm  - MK Dons v Yeovil  - 1.22 home

Standout Stats

  • 0-2 for MK Dons in the most recent head to head
  • This is 3rd v 24th and we saw a few of these top v bottom clashes yesterday. MK dons could go 2nd with a win today, dependent on what Preston do.Yeovil remain bottom with 3 points
  • This is the last match of the season so MK Dons must win and hope Preston do a "Derby" and freeze in the headlights.
  • 8 wins in 9 for MK Dons so they are certainly warmed up for this final push for automatic promotion.
  • All wins bar a 0-0 draw for MK Dons at home v 12th and lower.
  • Yeovil have drawn 1-1 v 2nd and 0-1 win v 4th . Indeed in their final push before the inevitable, they had a 1-1 draw and 2 1-0 wins in their last 4 matches.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • It's up to you. Form is irrelevant here. MK Dons MUST win against a Yeovil side who are relegated regardless. Looking at these types of matches , where the opponents were relegated and the other side needed a win, they all won yesterday. Reading were not a relegated side v Derby.
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1pm - Lille v Lens  - 1.55 home

Standout Stats

  • 1-1 when these 2 last met
  • This is 8th v 20th in French Ligue 2

Lille

  • 4 match home winning streak
  • No draw in 9 matches.
  • 6 wins and 2 defeats in their last 8 matches.
  • 2-3-3-2 scored in their last 4 at home.
  • Only 2 losses at home v 3rd and 10th.
  • 7 wins and 2 0-0's v 11th and lower at home.
  • 8 clean sheets in those 9 matches.
  • 29% over 2.5 goals only all season suggests wins will be 1-0 or 2-0.
  • 82% of halftime scores at home have been either 0-0 or 1-0.
  • 15 of 23 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Lens

  • No win in 11 away
  • Scored and conceded in their last 5 away matches.
  • 4 match losing streak away
  • 8 defeats in their last 10 matches.
  • Only 1 win in 15 matches.
  • Only 1 win home and away v 12th and higher in the league came away at Lyon 0-1
  • 19 of 32 goals conceded away came 2nd half

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Lille are in a bit of form at home but interesting that their matches are mostly under 2.5 goals. Lille could keep a clean sheet as they have done mostly at home v 11th and lower.
  • Lille are unlikely to be losing at halftime, so lay Lens in the first half market if they score first first half.
  • Lens are on a very poor run so lay them if they lead at any stage.
  • I would not lay the 0-0 halftime score given the 29% over 2.5 goals stat.
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1:30pm - Chelsea v C Palace  - 1.36 home

Standout stats

  • A London derby, that's the first thing to notice.
  • Chelsea, Chelsea, Palace, Chelsea in recent head to heads. 1-0 to Palace at home in March 2014.
  • this is 1st v 12th. Chelsea are 13 points clear of Man City who have a tough old match v Spurs. Palace are 9 points clear of the relegation zone at the moment.

Chelsea

  • Only lost 2 this season
  • 5 wins in their last 6 matches.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
  • Only failed to score in 2 matches.
  • No defeat in 16 at home and 14 overall
  • Beaten 8th-19th at home
  • 31% over 2.5 goals at home
  • 16 first half and 15 2nd half goals at home
  • Scored first in 15 of 16 home matches.

Crystal Palace

  • 9 points clear of relegation and 12 points remaining so not mathematically safe .
  • No draw in 9 overall and in their last 6 away
  • 2 match away winning streak
  • Lost their last 2 matches, at home.
  • Only 1 draw in 14 matches.
  • Losses away v 2nd, 3rd and 4th.
  • 9 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Have conceded 9 goals in the last 1/4 hour of matches away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Palace have a recent win against Man City which raises eyebrows. They are likely to set up to be hard to beat by Chelsea today who showed against Leicester that they have goals to call upon when in trouble.
  • Chelsea are likely to score first today. If they don't, lay QPR. With only 31% over 2.5 goals at home, it implies if Chelsea win, it'll be a 1-0 or 2-0.
  • QPR are vulnerable in the last 15 mins of matches so if it is a draw or QPR lead 75th+ minute, take a chance on them conceding.
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2pm - Fiorentina v Cesena  - 1.41 home

Standout Stats

  • 1-4 to Fiorentina in the most recent relevant head to head.
  • This is 7th v 19th in Seria A.Cesena are 8 points from safety. Fiorentina are 7 points shy of a top 4 spot.

Fiorentina

  • 4 consecutive defeats.
  • Not played bottom 2 yet but were beaten by 3rd bottom 1-3 at home!
  • 8 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 14 of 21 goals scored at home came 1st half.

Cesena

  • No win in 6 away and in their last 8 matches.
  • Only 1 win in 12 matches.
  • Only 1 away win v bottom.
  • Only 1 win v 13th and higher home and away.
  • Both teams have scored in 62% of matches.
  • 18 of 31 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • A case of the away side being so poor that Fiorentina are favourites by default. Poor recent form. 4 match losing streak. Cesena are unlikely to win today so make this your trading angle in. Let's hope Cesena lead as they will be vulnerable.
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2pm - HJK Helsinki v Jaro  - 1.28 home

Standout Stats

  • 4 consecutive HJK head to head wins.
  • HJK are win, draw, draw, win this season in only 4 matches played.They have only scored 1-1-1 in their last 3 matches.
  • Jaro have played 3 this season with a draw, 0-1 loss and 3-1 win

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • little to go on. Note with HJK that I mentioned the 2 draw sequence in my last research. That ended with a 1-0 win.I made my money laying the draw in that match but don't have a solid angle today. Any angle will present itself with the in-play stats in a league only 3/4 games old.
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2pm - Inter v Chievo  - 1.47 home

Standout Stats

  • Draw, Chievo, Inter in the last 3 head to heads.
  • This is 9th v 12th in Seria A. Inter could go top 5 with a win, thanks to Sampdoria losing yesterday. Huge motivation.
  • Chievo are safe from harm and 8 points shy of Inter Milan

Inter

  • 2 match winning streak overall.
  • No defeat in 5 matches.
  • 3 draws and a win v Roma in their last 4 at home.
  • Only 2 losses in 12 matches.
  • A very inconsistent side at home - always a worry when trying to "read" a team. By inconsistent I mean, they lost matches to teams in all different positions in the league
  • Only 1 0-0 at home

Chievo

  • No defeat in 4.
  • Only 1 loss in 8 matches. Poor goalscoring recently. Only scored 0-0-2-1-0-1-1-1-1 so in order to get points they need a 1-0 or 1-1 which they have managed in their last 4 matches.
  • Only 2 losses in 12 matches.
  • Have beaten the likes of Napoli and Genoa away from home. Wins away from home require clean sheets. Will they keep Inter out?
  • 19% over 2.5 goals away
  • 56% 0-0 at halftime away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Head to heads are tough to read. For me, Chievo look to have some solidity in defence, keeping Roma and Lazio to 0-0's, albeit at home.
  • Chievo need clean sheets away in order to win. Will they keep Inter out?
  • Inter are inconsistent at home so I may do as I did with Liverpool yesterday - lay them if they score first. Like Liverpool, the home form is hardly awe inspiring.
  • Back 0-0 pre match and hope it is 0-0 for a while 19% over 2.5 goals for Chievo is eyecatching and suggests a dearth of goals.
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4pm - Monaco v Toulouse  - 1.49 home

Standout Stats

  • 3 consecutive Monaco clean sheets in recent head to heads includes 2 consecutive 2-0 wins.
  • This is 3rd v 16th. If it's the Champions League for the top 3, then Monaco are incentivised today as Marseille and St Etienne are only 2 points behind them
  • They are 9 points shy of 1st and 2nd.
  • Toulouse are 2 points from relegation so an equally as important match for them

Monaco

  • 13 at home without defeat, and 10 overall
  • 3 consecutive home draws.
  • 14 clean sheets in their last 18 matches
  • A bit ropey at home to 13th and lower, with losses v 13th and 15th, a draw with 14th and 17th. Toulouse are 16th. Recent form though is encouraging.
  • Only 18% over 2.5 goals at home tells you defence is king of Monaco.

Toulouse

  • No draw in 17 away matches.
  • Scored in their last 5 matches
  • 7 consecutive away defeats ended with a 0-1 win v 15th.
  • No away draws
  • All defeats bar 1 away to top 8 sides.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • must wins for both sides, as has been the norm this weekend. Monaco are in excellent form and are so tough to score against lately. A worry re poor performance at home to teams around Toulouse in the league but that seems to be early season hiccup.
  • Lay any late draw. No draws yet away for Toulouse.
  • 18% overs at home for Monaco means if they win it will be a 1-0 or 2-0. Toulouse's recent losing streak away means I have to favour Monaco today. I will not be laying 0-0 halftime score when a team has 18% overs at home.
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4pm - Tottenham v Man City  - 2.1 away

Standout Stats

  • 6-5-4 scored by Man City in the last 3 head to heads. The market is very luke-warm about this City side though today.
  • this is 6th v 2nd . Spurs are 7 points shy of top 4 spot. Man City are 13 points shy of Chelsea and 2nd only on goal difference from Arsenal . Arsenal have a game in hand.The top 3 enter the Champions League and that will be City's goal.

Tottenham

  • Conceded in their last 7 at home.
  • 10 consecutive home matches without defeat ended with an unexpected 0-1 loss at home to Aston Villa.
  • Spurs at home have beaten Chelsea and Arsenal. Both teams scored in those matches. Spurs have scored 2+ in their last 2 matches.
  • 76% over 2.5 goals overall this season.
  • Only 2 0-0's at home

Man City

  • 4 match losing streak away
  • Conceded in their last 8 away matches.
  • No draw in 10 matches
  • The likes of Burnley and Palace have beaten City recently.
  • No wins away v top 5 , playing 6th today.
  • 65% over 2.5 goals away from home.
  • No 0-0 this season.
  • 12 goals scored in the last 1/4 hour of away matches.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • In head to heads, City love playing Spurs but the market does not expect such a comprehensive goal haul today. Spurs have conceded in their last 7 so they could concede today. They have been rock solid at home , bar that glitsch v Aston Villa.
  • 76% over 2.5 goals suggests that both teams could score today and any victor will need 2+ goals.
  • Lay any late 0-0
  • Lay any team 2-0,0-2 up
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5pm - Olympiakos v AEL Kalloni  - 1.11 home

Standout Stats

  • Olympiakos are champions so this is a dead rubber. I must say though that Oly are superb DRT candidates. THey came back from 2-0 down to draw 2-2 recently in the league, and came from 0-1 down to draw 1-1 late on in the Cup. Is there life still in the old Oly if they get into trouble?  Remember that this is a dead rubber. THe market suggests Oly will give the home support 3/4 goals at least today and possibly a goal before halftime.
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6pm - Valencia v Eibar  - 1.23 home banker

Standout stats

  • 0-1 to Valencia when these 2 met in December 2014.
  • This is 4th v 16th. Valencia must take advantage of Sevilla's defeat to Real Madrid last night. Sevilla and Valencia are duking it out for 4th place and Valencia have the advantage now if they win this home match today. Eibar have troubles of their own and are a point above the relegation zone.

Valencia

  • No defeat in their last 10 at home
  • 6 consecutive home clean sheets.
  • 2 match home winning streak
  • 9 wins and a 0-0 in their last 10 at home
  • Only defeat at home v Barcelona.
  • All wins at home v 8th and lower, scoring 3+ goals in 8 of those matches. Very consistent scoring.
  • Only 2 0-0's at home
  • 21 of 38 home goals scored in the first half.. Only conceded 8 goals at home

Eibar

  • 4 matches remain and Eibar need to do some winning sooner rather than later. This match with Valencia is probably the most difficult of the 4 remaining matches on paper.
  • 4 match losing streak, 2 away
  • No win in 8 away
  • Failed to score in their last 3 away
  • 13 defeats, a 0-0 and a 1-0 win v Malaga in their last 15 matches.
  • Lost at home 1-3 to Sevilla last match which I think is a good gauge to Valencia's performance today.
  • Failed to score in 6 of their last 7 away matches.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • No wins v top 7 home or away
  • All defeats v top 4 home and away
  • 8 0-0's at halftime is nearly half of away matches.
  • 16 of 22 goals conceded away came in the 2nd half.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Bar any Man Utd 0- West Brom -1 seasonal shocks, this is Valencia's match for the taking.  Ultra consistent scoring at home v 8th and lower could see them score 3 today. Note Eibar lost 1-3 at home to Sevilla latest and Sevilla are battling for 4th with Valencia so look to that scoreline for cues. 13 defeats for Eibar in their last 15 matches and all defeats v top 4. Why should we suddenly expect an Eibar win? Tony Pulis isn't jetting out there is he?
  • Tough to call a lay the 0-0 halftime score as Eibar concede heavily 2nd half, 16 of 22 away goals so they may offer some early resistance to Valencia. If 0-0 at halftime, back over 3.5 goals or lay under 3.5 goals at enhanced odds in expectation of the usual Valencia onslaught.
  • We saw the keystone cops Fenerbahce match when top v bottom and it is a risk at this time of year, but nothing in Eibar's recent performance suggests they'll stop Valencia from consolidating 4th spot.
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7:15pm - Setubal v Porto  - 1.2 away banker

Standout Stats

  • 24 consecutive Porto wins in head to heads. They scored 3-3-4 in their last 3 matches.
  • This is 16th v 2nd in the Portugeuse Primera Liga. Porto go within 3 points of Benfica with a win. Setabul are 3 points clear of relegation presently.

Setabul

  • Only 1 win in 12 matches.
  • Lost 1-2 to Sporting Lisbon and 3-0 to Benfica recently. A good gauge.
  • Since 1st February, Setabul have not scored more than a single goal in a match . A problem to win therefore if Porto score.
  • All defeats at home to top 5
  • All defeats home and away to top 4.

Porto

  • Only 2 losses all season.
  • 10 wins and 2 draws in the last 12 matches. Drew 0-0 with Benfica latest.
  • Failed to score in only 4 all season
  • 10 clean sheets in their last 12 matches.
  • More vulnerable away but have beaten all teams 14th and lower home and away.3-5-5-3 scored away v bottom 5 sides.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Sporting Lisbon and Benfica both won yesterday and this will keep Porto honest. It looks as if they have won this match mentally, having won 24 consecutive head to heads. Setabul have recently lost to the other 2 of the big 3 in Portugal so that is a good prompting for us to favour Porto today who consistently score heavily away to teams around Setabul's position in the league.
  • Expect 3+ goals from an on-form Porto today.
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8pm - Nantes v Paris St-G  - 1.38 away

Standout Stats

  • 9 consecutive PSG wins in head to heads.
  • This is 11th v 2nd in French Ligue 1
  • PSG go top with a win and have a game in hand over Lyon who they are on equal points with.
  • Nantes are 7 points above relegation so season not over for them yet. 4 matches left this season. A win for Nantes sees them guaranteed Ligue 1 status next season.

Nantes

  • No draw in 5 at home.
  • Scored in their last 4 at home
  • Only 3 wins in 15 matches.
  • Nantes have only 1 defeat v teams above them in the league at home. That was a 0-1 v Monaco.
  • No team in the top 10 has scored 2+ goals against them at home.
  • 29% over 2.5 goals all season.

PSG

  • 5 match winning streak
  • No draw in 7 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 7 matches.
  • 2-3-0-4-2-3-3-3-6-3 scored recently. What a perfect time to start consistently scoring 3+ goals. It gives the team huge confidence.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime in their last 11 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • No wins away v 6th-12th inclusive could add to PSG's concerns , given Nantes are so solid v top 10
  • Both teams have scored in 71% of PSG away matches.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • PSG win in head to heads and are scoring 3+ goals with great regularity. They will be tested today against a Nantes team with an solid record v top 10 sides at home. Is that enough to stop this free scoring PSG.
  • Arguments to oppose PSG? Nantes have lost only 1 of the top 10 at home. PSG have not beaten any side 6th-12th away.
  • Arguments to favour PSG? Scoring 3+ goals in their last 5 matches. A chance to go top with a win today is added incentive.
  • Both teams could score today and I'd lay Nantes if they scored first and perhaps back 1-0 as insurance if the odds are big enough (based on Nantes being solid v top 10 at home)
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