Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

The tennis may be weather-affected today so I cannot offer a start time. Yesterday's matches are yet to conclude. I will be on Twitter once I notice the play begins @drtclub. Hopefully monitor some of these matches too. I like AFC matches (opposable), and HJK have 2 0-0's away so I would be keen on that ending today. Rosenborg are scoring and conceding so keep an eye on that one too.

14:00 - Hammarby v Djurgardens - 2.16 Djur

  • Hammarby have won the last 3 head to heads scoring a minimum of 3 goals.
  • This is 9th v 3rd in the Swedish Allsvenskan.

Hammarby

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • Scored and conceded in 9 of 11 matches.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • 4 draws at home.
  • Drew 1-1 with 1st placed Malmo.
  • Not conceded in both halves.
  • 7 of 8 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Djurgardens

  • Only 3 defeats.
  • Only 1 away loss was a 3-2 v 1st placed Malmo.
  • 0-1-0-0 conceded away v 7th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Tough to call. Draws at home for Hammarby who are unbeaten at home. Djurgardens have kept 3 of 4 clean sheets away.
  • Hammarby have a strong both teams to score pattern. Does that suggest any team leading 1-0/0-1 late on is to be layed?
  • Tough to split these 2.

14:00 - AFC Utd v AIK - 1.63 AIK

  • AFC are newly promoted.
  • This is 16th v 6th in the Swedish Allsvenskan.

AFC

  • No win.
  • Only 2 clean sheets were 0-0.
  • Not led at halftime at home. Not scored at halftime at home.
  • Scored and conceded in all matches v top 5.
  • All 4 home goals scored 2nd half.

AIK

  • 6 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • Failed to score last 2 matches.
  • Only beat 2nd bottom 0-1.
  • 4 of 5 away goals scored 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • AIK are tough to score against and the best AFC can hope for, you feel, is another 0-0.
  • AIK I think are more likely to score first half so lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market despite their strong under 2.5 goals bias. AFC are highly likely to score 2nd half IF indeed they score.
  • I note AFC tend to score in defeat to top 5 teams so they must be layed if scoring first.

16:30 - KuPS v IFK - 2.14 KuPS

  • 3 consecutive KuPS wins in head to heads.
  • This is 4th v 6th in the Finnish Veikkausliiga.

KuPS

  • Only 2 clean sheets came last 2 matches.
  • Only 1 loss in 9 matches.
  • 2-0-2-1 scored at home.
  • Scored and conceded in 3 of 4 at home.
  • Not led at halftime at home.
  • Not conceded in both halves at home.
  • 4 home goals scored last 15 mins of home matches.
  • Opponents have scored first in 3/4 home matches.
  • Conceded in all matches v top 5.

IFK

  • Lost only twice.
  • 5 draws were all 1-1 draws.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals.
  • No 0-0.
  • No 1-0 or 0-1 away.
  • No away win saw 3 1-1 draws.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Both teams could score today - 1-1 pattern with IFK and both teams scoring pattern for KuPS.
  • I would lay IFK if IFK score first given those 1-1 draw patterns.

16:30 - Sirius v Halmstads - 1.82 Sirius

  • 0-1 Sirius last head to head.
  • This is 8th v 15th after 11 matches.

Sirius

  • Only 1 win in 7 matches saw 4 draws.
  • Scored and conceded last 3 at home.
  • Beat 14th 3-0 at home. Is that a sign that 15th are within their grasp?
  • 100% over 1.5 goals at home.
  • Not conceded in both halves at home.

Halmstads

  • Only 1 win first match of the season.
  • 6 defeats in their last 7 matches.
  • 2-0-2-2-3 goals conceded in away matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 3 away defeats.
  • Not led at halftime away.

Conclusions

  • There is a both teams scoring pattern with both sides. I would be laying Halmstads if Halmstads scored first.
  • 2-1 Sirius might be a scoreline which allows for trading. Note Sirius have 100% over 1.5 goals (2 goals or more) at home and that Halmstads keep conceding at least 2 goals.

16:30 - Norrkoping v IFK Goteborg - 2.18 Norrkoping

  • Norrkoping are unbeaten in the last 8 head to heads.
  • This is 2nd v 10th in the Swedish Allsvenskan.

Norrkoping

  • Unbeaten in 9 matches.
  • 3-0-2-3-0 goals scored in recent home matches. So there is a hint of goals.
  • Unbeaten at home v 9th and lower tending to score those 2/3 goals v teams at this end of the table.

IFK

  • Like Norrkoping only 2 defeats but why 10th? Well it's down to 5 1-1 draws.
  • 2 consecutive away defeats ended with a 0-4 win.
  • Not beaten a top 7 side. Best case has been a 1-1 draw.
  • No 0-0.

Conclusions

  • Logic sides with Norrkoping. Comfortably have it on head to heads. Scoring 2+ goals regularly and v 9th and lower and playing an IFK side tending towards 1-1 draws.
  • I would oppose any IFK lead here. If you want a potential better return, back 2-1 or 3-1 if IFK score first.

16:30 - HIFK v Ilves - 2.82 HIFK

  • 1-1 last head to head.
  • This is 11th v 7th in the Finnish Veikkausliiga.

HIFK

  • Not beaten a top 8 side yet.
  • Not scored 2 goals in a match at home.
  • Strong under 2.5 goals trend at home.

Ilves

  • 3 of their 5 aways were under 2.5 goals.
  • Scored in all bar 1 away.
  • Only 1 draw all season. No 0-0.
  • Wins away v 2nd, 4th and 8th.

Conclusions

  • soccerstats.com is suddenly not working but I must press on with fcstats.
  • HIFK must be layable if scoring first if they cannot score that 2nd goal?  Yes they could win 1-0 but note Ilves have scored in all bar 1 away match.

16:30 - RoPS v HJK Helsinki - 1.41 HJK

  • Both teams have scored last 3 head to heads with 2 draws and an HJK win.
  • This is 9th v 1st in the Finnish Veikkausliiga.

RoPS

  • No draw.
  • Lost all 3 matches home and away v top 4 this season.
  • 3 wins in last 4 home matches albeit outside of the top 5.
  • Unbeaten at halftime at home.
  • 6 of 8 home goals scored 1st half.

HJK

  • Only 1 defeat.
  • 0-1, 0-0, 0-0 last 3 aways.
  • 5 consecutive clean sheets.
  • 1-0-1-1-0 then 5 scored away.

Conclusions

  • For 2 consecutive weeks HJK have dominated the in-play stats but not scored nor conceded.
  • I maintain that this 0-0 sequence will end, so late the 0-0 as late as possible. Clearly something is amiss with HJK away from home. 1-0-0 scored.
  • Nothing wrong with their defence though with 5 clean sheets.
  • RoPS have tended to lose to top 4 so it would be a shock were they to win.
  • RoPS have yet to have a draw so that is another plus point in laying a late 0-0 (0-0 is a draw of course).

17:00 - Aalesunds v Haugesund - 1.98 Aalesunds

  • Haugesund has scored 3 goals in each of the last 3 head to heads.
  • 3-3 last match.
  • This is 6th v 13th in the Norwegian Eliteserien - 11 matches in.

Aalesunds

  • Only 1 loss in 9 matches.
  • 3-3-0-2 goals scored in the last 4 at home.
  • No draw at home and no draw at halftime at home.
  • Wins at home v 9th, 11th and 15th and play 13th today.
  • Not conceded in both halves at home.

Haugesund

  • Only 1 win in 8 is in contrast to Aalesunds.
  • Failed to score in 5 of their last 7 matches.
  • Beat 5th away but that is not the norm. Scored their 3 goals away v 5th though.
  • 4 Haugesund away matches have seen a team score 3 goals.
  • All away matches have seen a team score 2 goals at least.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals away.

Conclusions

  • The number 3 pervades this match from head to heads, to Aalesunds scoring 3 twice at home to Haugesund away matches seeing a team score 3 goals on 4 occasions.
  • Lay any late draw.
  • I may speculate on 3-2 and 2-3 today as trading angles into this match. All Haugesund away matches saw one team at least scoring 2 goals at least.

17:00 - Viking v Kristiansund - 1.79 Viking

  • No recent relevant head to heads.
  • This is 16th v 14th in the Norwegian Eliteserien. Two early season strugglers.

Viking

  • Only 1 win and odds on favourite.
  • 2-4-2-1-4 conceded in their last 5 matches....and odds on favourite!
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • No 0-0.
  • Not met a bottom 5 side at home.

Kristiansund

  • Only 1 loss in 6 matches.
  • 0-0-1-1-0 scored in away matches though.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Not won away yet but not met bottom 5 with whom they have an unbeaten record at home.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Other than that, Viking cannot be trusted and neither can Kristiansund. There is a question mark too as neither side has met bottom 5 sides at home and away respectively.

17:00 - Sarpsborg v Molde - 1.82 Sarpsborg

  • 0-1 Sarpsborg in the most recent head to head.
  • This is 3rd v 7th in the Norwegian Eliteserien.

Sarpsborg

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • Scored in every home match.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Only home loss v 1st.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals at home.

Molde

  • Failed to score only twice.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Losses away v 1st and 2nd.
  • Scored and conceded away v top 4 and beat 4th 1-2.
  • 6 of 8 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Both teams could score today. We should expect at least 2 goals in total.
  • Molde has scored and conceded away v top 4 - set to continue today?
  • Molde did beat 4th but lost to top 2 away. Which way will they go today?
  • Slight favour towards Sarpsborg who have only lost to 1st at home so lay Molde if Molde score first.

17:00 - Sogndal v Sandefjord - 2.12 Sogndal

  • Recent head to heads have been friendlies.
  • This is 13th v 10th in the Norwegian Eliteserien.

Sogndal

  • 4-2-2-1 goals scored last 4 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Only 3 wins.
  • No home 0-0.
  • Unbeaten at halftime at home.
  • Not conceded in both halves at home.
  • 5 of 6 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Sandefjord

  • Failed to score last 3 matches.
  • No draw in 6 away.
  • Have beaten 14th, 15th at home and 16th away. Does this form extend to 13th?

Conclusions

  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Apart from that form for Sogndal is not readable yet so no play.

17:00 - Rosenborg v Stromsgodset - 1.49 Rosenborg

  • 2-0 Stroms in the last head to head but Rosenborg have tended not to lose.
  • This is 1st v 11th in the Norwegian Eliteserien.

Rosenborg

  • No win in 4 saw their solitary defeat this season.
  • Scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches, latterly 1-2 and 1-1.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 5 matches, failing to win the last 3.
  • Lost at home to 12th and plays 11th today.
  • Not lost to nil.
  • Scored first in 5/6 at home.

Stroms

  • Not won away.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • Lost to 2nd and 4th away.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals away.

Conclusions

  • A strong both teams to score angle for both sides recently but Stroms lost 2-0 and 4-0 v top 4 away, so note that.
  • I feel that 1-1 is a best case for Stroms today who are yet to win.
  • Rosenborg are in poor winless form, scoring and conceding. The fact that they have scored first in 5/6 at home would suggest to lay them if they score first (go against the market) but Stroms do not look reliable on away form. It will be a short odds lay at least and have a reason behind it.

19:00 - Odds BK v Brann - 2.6 Odds

  • 0-0 and 1-3 Brann in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 4th v 2nd in the Norwegian Eliteserien.

Odd

  • Only 1 draw was a 0-0 last match.
  • 4 clean sheets in their last 5 matches.
  • 4 consecutive home wins ended with a loss last match.
  • Yet to concede first half at home.
  • Not yet met the top 6 so recent good form needs a context.
  • Losses v 1st, 6th and 7th suggest top teams may be too much for Odd.

Brann

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • Failed to score in only 1 match.
  • Losses came away v 1st and 15th.
  • All 7 away goals scored 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Tough to call. 2 teams in good form with a hint of vulnerability v other top positioned sides.
  • If 0-0 at halftime I would expect a 2nd half goal. The only strong angle for me.

FRENCH OPEN

The tennis might be weather-affected today as we have matches left over from yesterday.

Witthoeft v Pliskova - 1.39 Pliskova

  • 69th v 3rd. You'd have thought the odds would be more in Pliskova's favour.
  • No head to heads.
  • Witthoeft has battled, 3 setter first match and winning on a 2nd set tie breaker 2nd match.
  • Pliskova has had it reasonably easy with a 3 setter last match the exception.
  • Unspectacular form both players so I will opt to lay Witthoeft if Witthoeft won first set.

Elina Svitolina v Magda Linette - 1.11 Svitolina

  • 13th v 79th.
  • No head to heads.
  • A winner in Rome, Svitolina is obvious favourite here.
  • Linette has had 2 matches 6-0 7-5. I doubt she will get a 6-0 today. It might be a deliberate tactic? She is gettable if winning this first set convincingly.
  • I have to be with Svitolina, tournament winner in Rome and Istanbul.

Caroline Wozniacki v Svetlana Kuznetsova - 1.83 Svet

  • 11th v 9th, this has 3 setter written all over it. Even a tie breaker or 2?
  • 7-6 Caroline in head to heads.the last 2 head to heads wins were straight setters which goes against my obvious conclusion above.
  • Still with a market like this, and tight rankings, laying the first set winner is the obvious play.

Bautista Agut v Nadal - 1.03 Nadal

  • I still maintain laying a 1.04 shot in a Grand Slam is to be encouraged. It just takes a Tsonga v Olivo match to ensure a very good profit indeed.
  • The deeper we get into a Grand Slam, the more these shorties will be tested. I would lay Nadal 2-0 up as well in case Agut realises he must win the 3rd set to stay in the tournament.

Milos Raonic v Carreno Busta - 1.63 Raonic

  • 6th v 20th in the rankings.
  • 3-0 Raonic head to heads in 2016 saw a tie breaker last head to head and 4 6-4 sets. So Milos seems able to break the Busta serve.
  • That tells me to lay Busta 3-0 if he wins the first set (dependent on the market if it is liquid enough). It tells me Milos is backable if we are lucky enough to see 2.00 or higher for the Canadian.
  • Milos is yet to drop a set, note that. A hope Busta is up for it. Milos did have a 4 setter v Silva.

Jelena Ostapenko v Sam Stosur - 1.81 Sam

  • When you see a 1.81, those odds do not really signal a strong favourite. The bookies cannot price up evens both as there is no over round so one player will be odds-on and the other over evens.
  • 50 v 18th.
  • Sam Stosur won in the Olympics 2016 after losing the first set.
  • We have a possible template today? Lay the first set winner is the usual angle when a favourite is 1.81.
  • Sam is yet to drop a set. Ostapenko did drop a set first match but won her next 2 2-0.

Dominic Thiem v Zeballos - 1.06 Thiem

  • 9th v 84th and no head to heads.
  • Goffin retired from Zeballos last match and it would have been questionable whether Zeballos would have beaten the Goff.
  • He only beat Ivo Karlovic care of winning 2 tie breaker sets and that type of form is not eyecatching for me.
  • Thiem is yet to drop a set and Steve Johnson did battle in the 2nd set but lost in a tie breaker. Zeballos lost to Steve Johnson in Geneva.
  • I expect a Thiem win and hope for a Zeballos tie breaker set win. The collateral form with Steve Johnson suggests another routine Thiem win but any Thiem odds above 1.3 I will back him.