Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

A great start to the live chats yesterday, the highlights being a successful 1.05 odds lay (pays about 20/1) and a late, late back of Red Bull Salzburg at 0-0. They scored in Fergie Time in their match.
Today I'm a little less enthusiastic. The coupon is dominated by the Coppa Italia. Only 3 teams appeal in this competition - Benevento (19:00 kick off) - they were superb at home last season and are likely to continue that v lesser opponents; Verona and Crotone too.
No live chat officially for me today. There is not the volume of matches kicking off at the same time, to lure me in. If I am online (and remember that 'if'), then I will tweet throughout the day as long as I have an in-play stats feed.

ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

17:30 - Leeds Utd v Stoke City - 2.62 Stoke

  • A mixed bag for the Premier League-relegated sides yesterday. West Brom lost 1-2, Swansea won 1-2. How about Stoke?
  • Mid table mediocrity for Leeds last season.All wins bar 4 came v teams 14th and lower home and away.
  • Leeds beat only 2 of the top 11 at home last season. Can we assume Stoke will be top 10?
  • Stoke only beat one of the top 13 in the Premier League home or away last season. A 100% record v teams 14th and lower. There are some famous names in this Stoke team. Bojan (ex Barcelona), Crouch, Choupo-Moting, Fletcher and Adam in Midfield, Ince, Allen, Affelay. It looks a solid Stoke squad.
  • I was taken by the West Brom squad too, but look what happened to them yesterday.
  • The market is totally non-committal.

THE COMMUNITY SHIELD

15:00 - Chelsea v Man City - 2.14 Man City

  • A glorified friendly this one. let's take a look at past matches.
  • Chelsea have appeared in 2 of the last year, 1-0 loss and 1-1 draw.
  • Man City have appeared 3 times since 2011, conceding 3-2-3 goals. Are they still in friendly mode at this stage of the season?
  • Man City won 1-0 in the last 2 head to heads.
  • Back 0-0 pre-match?

SCOTTISH PREMIERSHIP

13:00 - Aberdeen v Rangers - 2.38 Rangers

  • 3 consecutive Rangers head to head wins ended with a 1-1 draw latest.
  • Interestingly there has been either a red card or a penalty in each of the last 4 head to heads.
  • This is 3rd v 2nd from last year. Identical points too. Aberdeen are on the rise. Rangers are on the re-build. Still both were 13 points shy of Celtic come season-end.
  • For Aberdeen at home last season, they simply lost to Celtic and Rangers. Other than that, only Motherwell could beat the Dons at home.
  • Rangers only lost 2 away matches last season, both 2-1 defeats to Kilmarnock and Dundee FC.
  • Can Aberdeen overcome the hurdle that is the top 2? They lost home and away to them in 6 attempts last season. Is that an angle in? Aberdeen solid bar Celtic and Rangers matches?

15:00 - Hibernian v Motherwell - 1.74 Hibernian

  • Hibs did the double last season.
  • Hibs were 4th last season. They lost to 2nd, 3rd, 8th and 9th at home last season. They scored 2 goals at least in 7 of 9 matches at home v teams 7th and lower.
  • Motherwell were 7th last season.
  • Only 1 away win for Motherwell v the top 8 last season suggests struggles today. They did draw 2-2 v Hibs away and beat 3rd placed Aberdeen 0-2 so there is some potential there but it's not the general trend.
  • Limited stats but an inkling Hibs are favoured today.

CHINESE SUPER LEAGUE

All odds-on shots and a league covered well by www.soccerstats.com so on a quiet Sunday, these matches are worth investigating. Please check the time. 13:35 with Betfair, 12:35 with Soccerway. Normally these matches are at 12:35.

13:35 - Jiangsu Suning v Guizhou HF Zhicheng - 1.58 Jiangsu

  • 0-1 Guiz and 1-3 Jiang last 2 head to heads.

Jiangsu (5th)

  • Only 4 defeats, 3 came away from home.
  • 3 draws in their last 4 matches.
  • 5 clean sheets in their last 7 matches.
  • 8 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches.
  • Only 1 home loss v 1st.

Guizhou (16th)

  • Only 2 wins, did come away, the last  came last match.
  • Scored and conceded in 9 of their last 10 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 11 and last 7 away.
  • Failed to score in only 1 away match.

Conclusions

  • Guizhou may score but without winning. That's a simple angle here.

13:35 - Dalian Yifang v Shanghai East Asia - 1.32 Shanghai

  • 8-0 Shanghai last time these 2 met. It could be a long lunchtime for Dalian.

Dalian (15th)

  • Only 2 wins did come at home.
  • 3 consecutive defeats.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 0-0 came at home.
  • 3-2-8 goals conceded v the top 3 this season.

Shanghai (3rd)

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • 5 and 4 goals scored in their last 2 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 matches.
  • Scored in every match.
  • Scored and conceded last 6 away.
  • v bottom 5, struggles. 2-1 loss, 1-2 win and 1-1.

Conclusions

  • The market expects an easy Shanghai win scoring 3+ goals today. They do tend to concede away so let's hope Dalian can score first. If Dalian score first in the first half, there is value in taking them on in the halftime market.

13:35 - Guangzhou R&F v Guangzhou FC - 1.51 Guangzhou FC

  • A local derby?
  • 4-4-4-6-6-9-9 total goals in recent head to heads. Get a ticket for this one if you're in the Guangzhou area.

Guangzhou R&F (7th)

  • Scored and conceded in 9 of their last 10 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 5 home matches.
  • All defeats v the top 5 at home.4-5-2 goals conceded.

Guangzhou (4th)

  • 3 consecutive wins to nil, scoring 3+ goals.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • Away losses v 9th and 15th.

Conclusions

  • You might want to back over 5.5 goals pre-match, better yet if 0-0 after 20 minutes. These matches, historically, have been goal-laden.
  • It's a local derby too.
  • Expect both teams to score. On form, Guangzhou should win (that's the away side).

13:35 - Hebei CFFC v Tianjin Teda - 1.87 Hebei

  • 0-2 Hebie and 1-1 in the last 2 head to heads.

Hebei (11th)

  • Only 1 win in 7 matches.
  • Only 1 win home and away v the top 10.

Tianjin Teda (10th)

  • 4 losses in 5 matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Only wins away v 12th and 15th.
  • Scored one goal max in all bar 1 away match.

Conclusions

  • If Tianjin cannot score that 2nd goal away, lay them if they score first. Concern? Hebei have only 1 win home and away v the top 10.

DANISH SUPERLIGA

Still early in the Danish season, but 2 of the major sides are out today, FC Copenhagen and Brondby.

14:00 - AC Horsens v Hobro - 2.26 AC Horsens

  • 2-2, 2-2, 1-1 in the last 3 head to heads.
  • Horsens have won, drawn, and lost this season.Horsens did beat Copenhagen 1-2 in their opener. Horsens have not kept a clean sheet this season, albeit only the 3 matches.
  • Hobro have lost all 3 matches this season, they also lost 0-3 v Copenhagen this season.
  • Hobro have played Copenhagen and Brondby so it's been a tough opener.
  • Hobro have conceded 2+ goals in their 3 matches.
  • In-play stats today for this one. Lesser lights for Hobro this season.

16:00 - OB v FC Copenhagen - 1.91 FC Copenhagen

  • 1-0 to each side last season in head to heads.
  • 3-2 loss, 2-2 and 1-0 loss for OB this season.
  • OB have come from 2-0 down, twice this season already.
  • Copenhagen lost 1-2 in their opener but then won their next 2, scoring 3+ goals without conceding.
  • Copenhagen are in the groove now. I think they should get a draw worst case.
  • So interesting that OB have fought from 2-0 down twice to 2-2. Take a chance if you want and lay FC Copenhagen if FC lead 0-2 today.

18:00 - Brondby v FC Nordsjaelland - 1.48 Brondby

  • 4-4-3 goals scored by Brondby in the last 3 head to heads. They did conceded 2-3-1 goals too!
  • Both sides are unbeaten in their 3 matches.
  • 2 away wins and a 1-1 draw at home for Brondby. The home match was a good trading match. Brondby conceded first, then equalised afterwards.
  • 2 1-1 draw and a 3-0 win for FC Nord this season.
  • I would expect Brondby not to lose this match.

SWEDISH ALLSVENSKAN

15:00 - Hammarby v Trelleborgs - 1.26 Hammarby

  • 1-3 Hammarby in the last head to head.

Hammarby (2nd)

  • Only 2 losses came at home.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 10 of their last 12 matches.
  • No draw in 8 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Only losses came at home v top 5.
  • 100% wins at home v 6th and lower.
  • 10 of 11 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Trelleborgs (15th)

  • 4 losses in 5 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 7 matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 5 matches.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Only 3 wins, 1 came away v 3rd.

Conclusions

  • Both teams could score with Trelleborgs not winning. Do expect Trelleborgs to concede. Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. On form, Hammarby should win.

17:30 - Orebro v Hacken - 2.32 Hacken

  • 1-1, 0-0, 1-1, 1-1 in the last 4 head to heads.

Orebro (9th)

  • Only 1 win in 8 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • 3 losses in 4 matches at home.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 7 at home.
  • Wins at home v 7th and 16th.
  • Scored 7 of their 10 goals at home away.
  • Conceded 10 of their 11 goals at home second half.

Hacken (10th)

  • Only 1 win in 7 matches.
  • 5 losses in 6 away matches.
  • 4 consecutive away defeats.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 4 away matches.
  • All defeats away v top 11.

Conclusions

  • Both sides are in poor recent form. Both sides are losing regularly.
  • In-play stats for me.

Other matches of interest....
At 15:00,  the Young Boys are at home to FC Zurich. 1.5 favourites, the Young Boys are likely to vye for the title season-end. We normally expect a goal before halftime in Young Boys matches. Caveat...no official stats to back that up. But I lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market in Young Boys matches.

Norwegian Eliteserien

18:00 - Valerenga v Sandefjord - 1.48 Valerenga

  • 2 Sandefjord wins and a Valerenga win in the last 3 head to heads.

Valerenga (9th)

  • Only 1 win in 6 matches.
  • No defeat in 5 at home.
  • Scored in their last 4 at home.
  • 4/4 wins v 13th and lower. 3 of those wins were 1-0.

Sandefjord (16th)

  • 10 losses in 11 matches.
  • No clean sheets.
  • No win in 14 matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • All defeats bar a 3-3 draw home and away v the top 9.

Conclusions

  • The odds look right here quite simply because Sandefjord are so poor. Highly likely to lose today.
  • Valerenga's wins at home v 13th and lower have been unspectacular. 1-0. So it might be a waiting game. Sandefjord should concede at some point.

18:00 - Stabaek v Sarpsborg - 2.78 home and away

  • 2.78 for both sides. Moving on.....

18:00 - Kristiansund v Odds BK - 2.36 Kristiansund

  • 2-2 and 1-2 Kristiansund in the last 2 head to heads.

Kristiansund (8th)

  • Only 1 loss in 6 matches.
  • Scored in their last 7 at home.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • 5 of 6 wins  v 10th and lower home and away.
  • Unbeaten at home v 11th and lower.

Odd (10th)

  • 4 losses in the last 6 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Only 1 away win v 3rd.
  • 9 of 12 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • On form, Kristiansund should feel confident here.
  • If 0-0 at halftime, take on the 0-0 2nd half.

18:00 - Stromsgodset v Bodo Glimt - 1.74 Stroms

  • 2-2 last head to head.

Stromsgodset (11th)

  • Only 1 loss in 5 was a 2-3.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • 2 wins in their last 3 home matches.
  • Scored 2+ goals in each of their last 3 home matches.
  • All defeats have come v the top 8.

Bodo (12th)

  • 4 consecutive draws, 3 consecutive score draws.
  • Only 3 clean sheets this season.
  • Only 1 away win.4 draws and 3 away losses.

Conclusions

  • I would lay any late draw here. Bodo have had 4 already. This is a sequence which will end at some point.
  • If Stroms can score 2 goals again at home, this could be enough for them today. Lay Bodo if Bodo scores first.

18:00 - Tromso v Haugesund - 2.08 Tromso

  • The home side is unbeaten in the last 5 head to heads.

Tromso (7th)

  • 5 wins in 7 matches.
  • 3 2-1 scorelines in the last 4 matches, 2 were wins.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Only 1 loss at home v 13th.
  • Scored first in 6/8 at home.
  • Unbeaten at home v top 11.

Haugesund (5th)

  • Only 4 losses.
  • Failed to score in only 1 match.
  • Scored in their last 14 and last 8 away.
  • 3/4 defeats came v the top 4.
  • All wins have come v 7th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Both sides in reasonably good nick. Haugesund are likely to score. Note that.
  • Other than that, I can make a good argument for either side. Tromso unbeaten at home v top 11. Haugesund all wins v 7th and lower.

20:00 - Lillestrom v Molde - 2.42 Molde

  • In-play stats here with a 2.42 odds favourite.