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11:30 - AZ Alkmaar v Excelsior - 1.43 AZ

  • 2-2, 2-0 AZ and 3-3 in the last 3 Dutch Eredivisie head to heads.
  • This is 6th v 17th (2nd bottom) in the league.

AZ 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 12th and lower.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals at home.

AZ other stats

  • Failed to score in only 3 matches and kept only 4 clean sheets. Lends itself to both teams scoring.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 8 matches.

Excelsior 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • All defeats away v the top 5.
  • Conceded in every away match.

Excelsior other stats

  • No win in 11 and in 11 away.
  • Conceded in their last 22 matches.
  • 92% over 1.5 goals.
  • 18 of 27 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late 0-0 - we should expect 2 goals at least today.
  • Both teams could score today with Excelsior not winning so lay Excelsior if Excelsior score first.
  • Excelsior concede heavily in the second half so if somehow they have kept a clean sheet to halftime, they are highly likely to concede 2nd half.

11:30 - Atalanta v Fiorentina - 2 Atalanta

  • 4 consecutive Fiorentina wins saw them scoring 3 goals in each of their wins. This ended with a 0-0 in the latest Italian Seria A head to head.
  • This is 4th v 8th.

Atalanta 100% stats

  • No home draw.

Atalanta other stats

  • 7 wins in their last 9 matches.
  • 4 clean sheets in their last 6 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • 4 consecutive home wins.
  • 14 of 20 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Fiorentina 100% stats

  • No draw at halftime away.
  • Lost all away matches played v top 9 teams conceding 2 goals at least.
  • No 0-0 away.

Fiorentina other stats

  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • 14 over 2.5 goals matches in their last 15 matches.
  • No draw in 11 away matches.
  • Only away draw was a 2-2.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late draw here. A strong no draw bias for these 2 teams.
  • I would have to side with Atalanta here given Fiorentina have lost away v top 9.
  • I would lay Fiorentina if Fiorentina score first.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

11:30 - Sparta Rotterdam v Feyenoord - 1.4 Feyenoord

  • 6-1 Feyenoord the last time these 2 teams met.

Sparta 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • All defeats v top 4 teams.
  • Scored at conceded at home v top 6, with Feyenoord 1st.

Sparta other stats

  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • No win in 5 at home.
  • Conceded in their last 8 away.
  • Scored and conceded in 8 of 11 home matches.

Feyenoord 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • Unbeaten v all top 15 teams.

Feyenoord other stats

  • 10 consecutive wins.
  • 4 consecutive clean sheets away.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • 6 clean sheets in their last 7 matches.
  • 13 goals scored last 15 mins of away matches.

Conclusions

  • We should not see a 0-0 here.
  • Sparta have lost to all top 4 teams so far. Is there any reason to expect anything else today? They do tend to score and concede so may score first but should be opposed if leading in-play (even consider backing Feyenoord or a correct score).
  • Feyenoord are strong last gasp goalscorers so if they are in trouble late on, keep the faith in them scoring.

12:45 - FC Vaduz v FC Basel - 1.37 FC Basel

  • 11 goals scored by FC Basel in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is bottom v top in the Swiss Super League.

FC Vaduz 100% stats

  • Not lost to nil at home.
  • No 1-0 or 0-1 at home.
  • Not beaten any top 4 side at all.

FC Vaduz other stats

  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • 3 consecutive home 1-1 draws.
  • Only 4 wins all season.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches.

FC Basel 100% stats

  • Scored in every match.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals away.
  • All wins v the bottom 3 teams scoring 2 goals at least in each win.

Conclusions

  • No need to go further with Basel. They should win today, scoring 2+ goals. Vaduz do tend to score and concede but should not win.
  • Vaduz have a run of 1-1 scorelines. You saw with Braga yesterday that these sequences can end. I expect any 1-1 to end.
  • We should expect 2 goals at least in total.

13:30 - Utrecht v ADO Den Haag - 1.43 Utrecht

  • 2-2 and 0-2 Utrecht in the last 2 Dutch Eredivisie head to heads.
  • This is 4th v 18th.

Utrecht 100% stats

  • No 0-0 at home.
  • All wins in the matches played against the bottom 3.

Utrecht other stats

  • Only 2 defeats in 16 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Only 3 defeats since 2nd October came v top 2 teams only.
  • 7 1-0's at halftime at home.
  • All defeats bar 1 came v the top 5.
  • 9 goals conceded last 15 mins of matches at home.
  • 12 of 16 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

ADO Den Haag 100% stats

  • Conceded in all away matches.
  • All defeats home and away v the top 6.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals away.

ADO Den Haag other stats

  • Only 2 wins since 28th October.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 away draw.

Conclusions

  • Utrecht are in superb form and should be eyeing a win. Only top 2 teams have beaten them since 2nd October.
  • A simple enough angle. ADO really should not get a look in.
  • Expect 2 goals minimum in total today.

13:30 - Groningen v Ajax - 1.54 Ajax

  • 4 consecutive head to head wins scoring 2 goals at least for Ajax.
  • Europa league match on the 9th March for Ajax. Will this affect them?

Groningen 100% stats

  • All defeats to nil in the 3 matches v top 2 sides.
  • All home defeats have come v top 8 sides.
  • No 1-0 and 0-1.
  • No home match with 4 goals exactly.

Groningen other stats

  • Conceded 2 goals in each of their last 3 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 4 matches.
  • No win in 6 matches.
  • Only 1  0-0 at home.
  • 92% over 1.5 goals at home.

Ajax 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 10th and lower - Groningen are 11th.
  • All away wins v 10th and lower saw Ajax scoring 2 or 3 goals.
  • No over 4.5 goals matches away.

Ajax other stats

  • Failed to score only once.
  • Only 2 defeats.
  • 5 of their last 6 wins were to nil.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime away.
  • 16 of 21 away goals scored 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • The numbers 2 and 3 crop up. Ajax are expected to score 2/3 goals v teams in Groningen's position in the league.
  • Strong 2nd half scoring bias for Ajax opens up a potential 2nd half correct score play if 0-0 at halfitme. 0-2, 0-3 given Groningen keep losing to to 2 sides without scoring.
  • Should Groningen score first, I would be backing Ajax or an Ajax correct score.

13:30 - Tottenham v Everton - 1.7 Tottenham

  • 3 consecutive draws in head to head, the last 2 were 1-1.

Tottenham 100% stats

  • Unbeaten at home.
  • Scored in every home match.

Tottenham other stats

  • Only 3 defeats.
  • 5 clean sheets in their last 7 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • 8 consecutive home wins.
  • 4 consecutive home clean sheets.

Everton 100% stats

  • Not led at halftime away.

Everton other stats

  • 5 clean sheets in their last 7 matches.
  • No defeat in 9 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 away.
  • 11 of 15 away goals scored second half.

Conclusions

  • This is an interesting match now Everton are in rare form. However they have only scored 0-0-1 in their last 3 aways despite 3-4-6-2 goals scored in home matches.
  • I may back 0-0 pre match given the prevalence of clean sheets in recent matches between these 2 sides.
  • I cannot wholeheartedly dismiss Everton today.

14:00 - Crotone v Sassuolo - 2.18 Sassuolo

  • 3 consecutive 2-1 scorelines in head to heads, albeit 2 came in Italian Seria B. It is Italian Seria A today.

Crotone 100% stats

  • 2nd bottom in Italian Seria A.
  • All home defeats by 1 or 2 goals.
  • 92% over 1.5 goals at home.
  • No 0-0.

Crotone other stats

  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Failed to score in 7 of their last 10 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 15 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 5/6 matches v teams 12th and lower at home.

Sassuolo 100% stats

  • Scored in every away match.
  • Unbeaten away v teams 13th and lower.

Sassuolo other stats

  • Only 6 clean sheets.
  • 3 consecutive away wins.
  • All defeats bar 1 have come v teams above them in the league.

Conclusions

  • On form, Sassuolo have a winning chance here as their wins tend to come precisely against teams in Crotone's position in the league.
  • Crotone may yet score but without winning. They have conceded in their last 15 matches so it would be anomolous were they to keep a late clean sheet.
  • Keep faith too in Sass scoring given they have scored in every away match to date.

14:00 - Cagliari v Inter - 1.62 Inter

  • 1-2 to Cagliari in the last head to head was care of an own goal winner in Italian Seria A.

Cagliari 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • Only failed to score at home v top 3 teams.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals at home.
  • No 1-0 or 0-1.

Cagliari other stats

  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Conceded in their last 22 matches.
  • Both teams scored in 9 home matches.
  • In 8 home matches, Cagliari scored at least 2 goals.

Inter Milan 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • All away wins v teams 13th and lower - Cagliari are 12th.
  • Not won v top 11 away.

Inter Milan other stats

  • 9 wins and 2 losses in the last 12 matches.
  • 4 1-0 scorelines in the last 5 aways.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • 10 of 13 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • This should not end 0-0 so mark that.
  • Cagliari are highly likely to concede today. I do like their scoring at home, showing an ability to score 2 goals regularly. But note Inter have had 4 1-0 scorelines in their last 5 aways.
  • But if Cagliari lead 2-0 (and it is possible), they must be layed.

14:00 - Udinese v Juventus - 1.54 Juventus

  • Juventus won the 2 2016 Seria A head to heads after Udinese competitiveness in 2016.
  • This is 14th v 1st in Italian Seria A.

Udinese 100% stats

  • All defeats at home v top 6.
  • Lost 3 matches v top 2 played so far.
  • Conceded in every home match v teams above them in the league.
  • No over 4.5 goals matches.
  • No home 0-0.

Udinese other stats

  • Only 1 win in 9 matches.
  • Only 6 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in 6 of their last 9 matches.
  • Conceded 2 goals at least in 7 of 9 matches at home v teams above them in the league.

Juventus 100% stats

  • No draw.
  • Scored in all matches v 9th and lower.

Juventus other stats

  • All wins bar 4 losses.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • 8 clean sheets in their last 10 matches.
  • 15 of 19 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • No champions league match yet for Juventus so there should be no distractions.
  • Lay any late draw. The expectation is for a Juventus win - solid defence and Udinese tending to concede 2 goals.
  • Juventus are a great 2nd half scoring side so do please remember that if 0-0 at halftime.

14:00 - Torino v Palermo - 1.53 Torino

  • 2-1, 1-3 and 1-4 Torino in the last 3 Italian Seria A head to heads.
  • This is 9th v 18th in Italian Seria A.

Torino 100% stats

  • Unbeaten at halftime at home.
  • Unbeaten at home v 2nd and lower.
  • Not lost to nil at home.
  • No opponent has scored first at home.

Torino other stats

  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • Scored in their last 10 matches at home.
  • Only 1 home loss.
  • Scored and conceded in all bar 2 home matches.
  • 75% over 2.5 goals at home.
  • 13 of 16 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Palermo 100% stats

  • No 0-0.

Palermo other stats

  • Only 3 wins.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 10 matches.
  • Only led in 1 match away.
  • Scored and conceded in 11 of 13 matches away.

Conclusions

  • Both teams to score is a huge trend for both sides. It has happened in head to heads and Torino have always managed to win.
  • That is the expectation today so work on that as your angle throughout this match and oppose any Palermo lead.

14:30 - Eintracht Frankfurt v Freiburg - 2.16 Frank

  • 1-0 Freiburg in the most recent German Bundesliga head to head.
  • This is 6th v 9th in the league.

Frankfurt 100% stats

  • Unbeaten at home v top 12 teams.

Frankfurt other stats

  • 3 consecutive defeats without scoring.

Freiburg 100% stats

  • Conceded in all away matches.
  • Losses away v top  7 teams.
  • Not beaten a top 12 team away.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals away.
  • No 0-0.

Freiburg other stats

  • At least one team has scored 2 goals in each of the last 7 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 11 away matches.
  • In 6 of 7 matches away v top 11 teams, Freiburg conceded 2/3 goals.

Conclusions

  • On form Frankfurt should be unbeaten and Freiburg could concede 2/3 goals so let these be the possibilities we enter into this match with.
  • Lay any late 0-0. Remember Freiburg have conceded in all away matches.

15:00 - FC Copenhagen v Horsens - 1.33 FC

  • 0-2 to FC Copenhagen in the most recent Danish Superliga head to head.
  • This is 1st v 8th.

FC Copenhagen stats

  • I may have to phone the lovely Rachel Riley from Countdown to check the maths but I think Copenhagen win the title with a win today.
  • One of the last unbeaten sides in Europe.
  • All wins at home v 7th and lower without conceding.

Horsens stats

  • Conceded 2 goals at least when meeting the top 2.

Conclusions

  • This match is more about context than research. Copenhagen win the title if winning this match. They have beaten Horsens 0-2 already this season, a Horsens side who concede 2 goals v teams in the top 2.
  • Expect 100% from the home side!

15:15 - Atletico Madrid v Valencia - 1.43 Atl Madrid

  • 3 consecutive Atl Madrid wins in head to heads in the Spanish La Liga.
  • This is 4th v 13th.

Atl Madrid 100% stats

  • All defeats have come v top 6 teams.
  • No home match with exactly 4 goals.

Atl Madrid other stats

  • Scored and conceded in their last 4 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • Only lost one home match at halftime.
  • All wins at home v 12th and lower.

Valencia 100% stats

  • No draw home or away v teams above them in the league.

Valencia other stats

  • 3 wins in 4 matches came at home though.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 away.
  • All defeats bar 1 v teams above them in the league away.
  • Scored and conceded in all bar 1 of those matches.

Conclusions

  • Valencia's recent win over Real Madrid was foreseeable if you read the research. Today though they could score but lose yet another match away to a team above them in the league.
  • Lay any late draw while Valencia continue to avoid draws v teams above them home and away.
  • No Champions League match for Atl Madrid this week so they should not falter on that count.

16:00 - Sunderland v Man City - 1.3 Man City

  • An overwhelming Man City win in head to heads.

Sunderland 100% stats

  • Not beaten a top 11 side.
  • 0-1 and 0-0 v top 2 at home.
  • Not scored in the first 15 mins of home matches.

Sunderland other stats

  • Only 5 wins.
  • Failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • 10 of 14 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Man City 100% stats

  • No away draw.
  • All wins away v bottom 5 sides, scoring 2 or 3 goals.
  • No 0-0.

Man City other stats

  • Scored 2 goals at least in 9 of their last 11 matches. Only the 2 Liverpool sides stopped that.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • 96% over 1.5 goals away.
  • 10 goals scored last 15 mins of away matches.

Conclusions

  • Sunderland have kept the top 2 to 0-0 and 0-1 at home so bear that in mind if a tight match unravels today.
  • City matches do tend to see 2 goals at least and they should on form score 2 goals at least today on their own. Note that if 0-0 for a while.
  • Sunderland have yet to beat a top 11 side so let's hope they lead so we can either lay them or back City at enhanced odds.
  • Lay any late draw while City continue to avoid draws.

16:30 - Hamburg v Hertha Berlin - 2.62 Hamburg

  • I tend to leave the research of matches like this to the end. 2.62 odds betrays the fact this may be too tight to call.
  • The home side has won the last 3 head to heads to nil in the German Bundesliga.
  • This is 16th v 5th in the league so odds that the side 5th aren't even favourites!

Hamburg 100% stats

  • No home 0-0.
  • All defeats at home v the top 6.
  • At least one team has scored at least 2 goals in all matches v top 7.

Hamburg other stats

  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • No defeat in 5 at home.
  • Scored in their last 6 home matches.
  • Only led in one home match at halftime.
  • 11 goals conceded last 1/2 hour away.

Hertha Berlin 100% stats

  • 2 away wins have come v 14th and 17th.
  • Not conceded a goal v bottom 3 sides.

Hertha Berlin other stats

  • 4 consecutive away defeats.
  • Only 1 0-0 away.
  • Only led once at halftime away.

Conclusions

  • An odd betting market. On form Hertha Berlin should be feeling bullish about winning. They tend to find the bottom 3 easy to deal with, having recorded all wins to nil.
  • Something though is clearly in the minds of the market makers who put the side 16th as favourites.
  • Potential late action? Note Hamburg's strong concession rate late on.

17:00 - Brondby v FC Nordjaelland - 1.62 Brondby

  • 4 consecutive Brondby wins ended with a 1-1 in the Danish Super Liga.
  • As far as I can tell, Brondby will know their title fate if FC Copenhagen win. If Copenhagen draw or lose, Brondby will be incentivised to win today to keep the title alive.

Brondby 100% stats

  • No over 4.5 goals matches at home.
  • No 0-0 at home.

Brondby other stats

  • Only 3 defeats.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • 4 consecutive home wins.
  • Only home loss was v bottom of the league.
  • Scored in their last 11 homes.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 73% over 2.5 goals at home.

FC Nordjaelland 100% stats

  • No over 4.5 goals away.

FC Nordjaelland other stats

  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • No win in 7 away.
  • 10 goals conceded last 30 mins of away matches.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Expect Brondby to score if 0-0 or 0-1 for a while.
  • This is a must-win if FC Copenhagen lose or draw earlier in the afternoon.

17:30 - Las Palmas v Osasuna - 1.64 Las Palmas

  • 2-2 in the only recent relevant Spanish La Liga head to head.
  • This is 12th v 20th (bottom) of the league.

Las Palmas 100% stats

  • Las Palmas are unbeaten at home v 7th and lower.
  • No home match with exactly 3 goals.

Las Palmas other stats

  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • 2 consecutive home 0-1 defeats - the only home defeats.

Osasuna 100% stats

  • No 0-0 away.
  • Conceded in all away matches.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals away.
  • No 1-0/0-1 away.

Osasuna other stats

  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Conceded 3 goals in each of their last 5 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 21 matches.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in all bar 1 away match.

Conclusions

  • Las Palmas should remain unbeaten at home. Osasuna are conceding 3 goals with regularity.
  • Las Palmas have their only 2 home losses in their last 2 matches but Osasuna's leaky defence should give Las Palmas an opportunity or 2, surely?

19:45 - Athletic Bilbao v Malaga - 1.79 Ath Bilbao

  • 0-1 Athletic and 2-1 Malaga in the last 2 2016 head to heads in Spanish La Liga.
  • This is 8th v 15th.

Ath Bilbao 100% stats

  • Unbeaten at home v 3rd and lower.

Ath Bilbao other stats

  • Not lost a home match since 28th August 2016.
  • 3-2-0-2-2-2-3 goals scored in recent home matches.
  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • Scored 2+ goals in 9/12 home matches.
  • 16 of 24 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Malaga 100% stats

  • No away win.

Malaga other stats

  • Only 1 win in 12 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Conceded last 13 matches.
  • Only led 1 match away at halftime.
  • 17 of 25 goals conceded away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Malaga should struggle again today. We have a consistently scoring home side playing a yet-to-win-away side.
  • Ath Bilbao really should score 2 or 3 goals today.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market as Malaga tend to concede before halftime.
  • Do expect Malaga to concede (remember that if 0-0 or 0-1 for a while).

19:45 - Bologna v Lazio - 1.86 Lazio

  • 2-2 and 1-1 in the last 2 Italian Seria A matches.

Bologna 100% stats

  • All defeats at home v the top 8 - Lazio are 5th.
  • Not beaten a top 8 side home or away.

Lazio 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • Unbeaten away v teams 9th and lower (Bologna are 15th).

Lazio other stats

  • 3 wins in their last 4 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 6 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 5 away matches.
  • 92% over 1.5 goals away.

Conclusions

  • On form, Lazio should not lose today. Bologna tend to find the top 8 a stretch and even had trouble scoring against them even with home advantage.
  • 2 goals are expected in total.
  • Lay any late 0-0.

20:00 - Monaco v Nantes - 1.40 Monaco

  • 3 Monaco 1-0 wins and a 0-0 in the last 4 French Ligue 1 head to heads.
  • Surely we should expect more goals now Mr. Falcao has consented to behave like a striker!

Monaco 100%

  • Scored in every match.
  • Scored 2 goals at least at home v teams 7th and lower.
  • 100% over 2.5 goals at home.

Monaco other stats

  • Failed to score only once.
  • 3 consecutive home clean sheets.
  • 4 consecutive home wins.
  • 30 of 46 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Nantes 100% stats

  • No 0-0 away.
  • All defeats v top 5.

Nantes other stats

  • 0-0-1-1 conceded in their last 4 away.

Conclusions

  • Monaco really should simply outscore Nantes who have trouble even scoring in defeat v top 5.
  • Expect 2+ goals from Monaco today.
  • I would lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market given their current home scoring record.