Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

Pleased overall with the live chat on [email protected]. Some big payouts included the 1-2 Helsingborgs trade and Shrewsbury's late late winner. The meaningless Charity Shield signals the Premiership start is within our sights. French Ligue 1 continues today. I will be on Twitter again today @drtclub. See you 14:00 for the Start of the Swedish Allsvenskan and 1/2 hour into the Aberdeen match. Today is another in-play stats day today given we have little form (bar the Chinese Super League).

CHINESE SUPER LEAGUE

12:35 - Shanghai East Asia v Tianjin Quanjian - 1.61 Shanghai

  • The home side has tended to get the best of it in head to heads. 3-0 Tianjin and 4-0 Shanghai last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 2nd v 3rd in the Chinese Super League.

Shanghai

  • A win takes them within a point of 1st.
  • Only 3 defeats all season but 2 came within the last 4 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 9 of their last 10 matches.
  • Scored in every match.
  • Scored 2+ goals in each of their last 9 home matches.
  • Outside of 1st, all wins at home.

Tianjin

  • 8 wins in 10 matches.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • Not played the top 2 away but win and draw with them at home.
  • Only scored 2 goals 3 times away, twice v bottom 3 sides so may have trouble in attack when on the road.

Conclusions

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 10/11 Shanghai SIPG home matches against top-six teams and +3.5 goals in 11/16 Shanghai SIPG home matches.
  • TJ Quanjian have conceded first in 5/10 away matches.
  • I would have to favour the home side today. I am concerned with Tianjin's inability to consistently score 2 goals away. This suggests laying Tianjin (or even backing Shanghai, a team scoring 2+ goals in EVERY home match) if Tianjin scored first.
  • Both teams could score. Shanghai need to score those 2 goals as they keep conceding.
  • Do not expect a 0-0 here today.

12:35 - Guangzhou R&F v Liaoning Whowin - 1.35 Guangzhou

  • 1-4 Guangzhou in the last head to head.
  • This is 7th v 14th in the Chinese Super League.

Guangzhou

  • Failed to score only twice.
  • 2 consecutive wins scoring 10 goals in total and conceding 4 goals in total.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 8 matches.
  • Conceded 2 goals at least in each of their last 5 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of 6 matches home and away v 13th and lower.

Liaoning

  • 7 losses in 8 matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • No win in 9 away conceding in all of those 9.
  • No draw in 11 matches.
  • No away win.
  • All defeats v top 7 home and away.

Conclusions

  • 1st goal: Guangzhou R&F have scored first in 10/11 home matches against bottom-six teams while Liaoning have lost 9/11 away matches against top-six teams.
  • Liaoning have conceded first in 9/12 away matches.
  • Guangzhou make Real Madrid look positively mild. Conceding 2 goals in each of their last 5 matches, they still managed to win their last 2.
  • We should see goals galore really here so react if 1-0 or 0-0 at halftime. I would take a chance on over 4.5 goals at what could be tasty odds.
  • Let's hope Liaoning takes a 0-2 lead as I would be laying them all day.
  • Logic (rather than stats) suggests laying the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

CHARITY SHIELD

14:00 - Arsenal v Chelsea - 2.36 Chelsea

  • Chelsea, Arsenal, Chelsea, Arsenal, Chelsea in recent head to heads. This really is a toss of a coin!
  • Arsenal has won the last 2 Charity Shields they have been involved in. Chelsea has lost 3 Charity Shields out of 3 since 2010.
  • It'll be a bit of fun but no angles for me .It is but a glorified friendly.

SCOTTISH PREMIER LEAGUE ( SPL)

13:30 - Motherwell V Rangers - 1.7 Rangers

  • 0-2 Rangers and 1-1 at Motherwell last 2 head to heads.
  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 12/17 Motherwell home matches and in 7/11 Rangers away matches.
  • Motherwell have lost 7/9 home matches against top half non-Big One teams.

15:00 - Aberdeen v Hamilton - 1.39 Aberdeen

  • The home side has won each of the last 4 head to heads.
  • Match outcome: Aberdeen have won 8/8 home matches against bottom-six teams while Hamilton Ac have lost by two or more goals in 5/8 trips to top half non-Big One teams.
  • Hamilton Ac have lost 7/9 away matches against top half non-Big One teams.

FRENCH LIGUE 1

14:00 - Lille v Nantes - 2.12 Lille

  • 0-3 Lille, 0-0, 3-0 Lille last 3 head to heads.
  • 1st goal: Lille have conceded first in 7/11 home matches against top-half teams while Nantes have scored first in 7/11 away matches.
  • Lille have lost 6/11 home matches against top-half teams.
  • New manager and new money for Lille could see them surprise this season.
  • Claudio Ranieri is the new Nantes manager!

16:00 - Angers v Bordeaux - 2.66 Angers

  • 0-1 Angers and 1-1 last 2 head to heads.
  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 8/10 Angers home matches against top-six teams and in 6/9 Bordeaux away matches against middle-third teams.
  • Bordeaux have drawn the first half in 5/9 away matches against middle-third teams.
  • Bordeaux scored 20 times in 33 matches in the 2nd half last season so watch out for that.

20:00 - Marseille v Dijon - 1.39 Marseille

  • 1-2 Marseille and 1-1 in the last 2 head to heads.
  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 8/10 Marseille home matches against bottom-six teams and they have drawn the first half in 8/10 such matches.
  • Dijon have lost 4/5 away matches against top-six teams.
  • Marseille won 12 of 14 at home outside the top 6 last season. Fortress Marseille?
  • Relegation battle last season for Dijon who mustered enough points to stay up.
  • Dijon won only 1 away match last season.

ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

16:30 - Bolton Wanderers v Leeds United - 2.72 Leeds

  • When these teams have met, both teams have scored last 4 occasions.
  • -2.5 goals: Promoted teams have had -2.5 goals in 51% of home matches against top-half teams since 2012-13.
  • There have been -2.5 goals in 12/20 Leeds away matches.
  • Leeds have lost 6/10 away matches against promoted teams.